Exhibit 99.2
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Supplement
First Quarter Ended March 31, 2009
Table of Contents |
| Page |
Selected Financial Highlights |
| 1 |
Consolidated Income Statements |
| 2 |
Consolidated Balance Sheets |
| 3 |
Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources |
| 4 |
New Business Production |
| 5 |
Segment Consolidation |
| 6 |
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment |
| 7-8 |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment |
| 9-10 |
Investment Portfolio |
| 11 |
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization |
| 12 |
Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Future Installment Premiums |
| 13 |
Financial Guaranty Profile |
| 14-18 |
Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile |
| 19 |
Consolidated Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Profile |
| 20-22 |
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile |
| 23-26 |
Consumer Receivables Profile |
| 27 |
Financial Guaranty Direct Credit Derivative Exposures Profile |
| 28 |
Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Default Swaps |
| 29 |
Non-Investment Grade Exposures |
| 30-31 |
Largest Exposures by Sector |
| 32-35 |
Below Investment Grade and Closely Monitored Credits |
| 36 |
Loss and LAE Reserves |
| 37 |
Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses |
| 38 |
Summary Financial and Statistical Data |
| 39 |
Adoption of FAS 163 |
| 40 |
Glossary |
| 41 |
Endnotes Related to Non-GAAP Financial Measures |
| 42 |
This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (“Assured” or “the Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 10-Q’s dated March 31, 2008, June 30, 2008, September 30, 2008 and March 31, 2009 and our 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008.
Some amounts in this Financial Supplement may not add due to rounding.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:
Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, the Company’s forward looking statements, including its calculations of adjusted book value, present value of insurance and credit derivative gross written premiums (“PVP”), net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, total estimated net future premium earnings, and statements regarding capital losses, pricing, ratings, expenses and new business production could be affected by many events. These events include rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments or volatility in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe or frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserves, investment losses, the availability of capital, changes in regulation or tax laws, governmental actions, natural catastrophes, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, technological developments, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, changes in general economic conditions, other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time, management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
|
| Quarter Ended |
| % Change |
| |||||
|
| 2009 |
| 2008 |
| 1Q-08 |
| |||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Operating income (b) |
| $ | 63.4 |
| $ | 6.2 |
| NM |
| |
Plus: Realized (losses) gains on investments, after tax |
| (17.1 | ) | 0.4 |
| NM |
| |||
Plus: Unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax (1) |
| 39.1 |
| (175.8 | ) | NM |
| |||
Net income (loss) |
| $ | 85.5 |
| $ | (169.2 | ) | NM |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Book value (2) |
| $ | 2,025.6 |
| $ | 1,492.7 |
| 36 | % | |
Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax (3) |
| 1,825.2 |
| 871.1 |
| 110 | % | |||
Plus: Net unearned revenue on credit derivatives, after tax (4) |
| 16.4 |
| 17.5 |
| (6 | )% | |||
Plus: Net present value of est. future installment premiums in-force, after tax (d) |
| 382.0 |
| 771.7 |
| (50 | )% | |||
Less: Deferred acquisition costs (DAC), after tax |
| 362.7 |
| 244.5 |
| 48 | % | |||
Adjusted book value (c) |
| $ | 3,886.5 |
| $ | 2,908.6 |
| 34 | % | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
ROE, excluding AOCI |
| 17.3 | % | (44.4 | )% |
|
| |||
Operating ROE, excluding AOCI and after-tax unrealized (losses) gains on credit derivatives (b) |
| 10.8 | % | 1.2 | % |
|
| |||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Per diluted share: (5) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Operating income (b) |
| $ | 0.69 |
| $ | 0.08 |
| NM |
| |
Plus: Realized (losses) gains on investments, after tax |
| (0.19 | ) | — |
| NM |
| |||
Plus: Unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax (1) |
| 0.43 |
| (2.20 | ) | NM |
| |||
Net income (loss) (6) |
| $ | 0.93 |
| $ | (2.09 | ) | NM |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Book value (3) |
| $ | 22.48 |
| $ | 18.63 |
| 21 | % | |
Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax (3) |
| 20.25 |
| 10.87 |
| 86 | % | |||
Plus: Net unearned revenue on credit derivatives, after tax (4) |
| 0.18 |
| 0.22 |
| (18 | )% | |||
Plus: Net present value of est. future installment premiums in-force, after tax (d) |
| 4.24 |
| 9.63 |
| (56 | )% | |||
Less: DAC, after tax |
| 4.02 |
| 3.05 |
| 32 | % | |||
Adjusted book value (c) |
| $ | 43.12 |
| $ | 36.31 |
| 19 | % | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Book value, excluding AOCI and net unrealized mark-to-market gains (losses) on credit derivatives(7) |
| $ | 26.34 |
| $ | 25.76 |
| 2 | % | |
Adjusted book value, excluding AOCI and net unrealized mark-to-market gains (losses) on credit derivatives(7) |
| $ | 46.99 |
| $ | 43.43 |
| 8 | % | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Consolidated net debt service outstanding |
| $ | 357,216 |
| $ | 329,833 |
| 8 | % | |
Consolidated net par outstanding |
| 237,176 |
| 214,876 |
| 10 | % | |||
Consolidated claims-paying resources |
| 5,221 |
| 4,669 |
| 12 | % | |||
Gross par written |
| 22,276 |
| 19,995 |
| 11 | % | |||
(1) The quarters ended March 31, 2009 and 2008 included a fair value after-tax gain of $12.8 million, or $0.14 per diluted share, and $5.5 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, respectively, related to Assured Guaranty Corp.’s committed capital securities.
(2) The Company adopted FAS No. 163 “Accounting for Financial Guarantee Insurance Contracts” (“FAS 163”) effective January 1, 2009. Please refer to “Adoption of FAS 163” page for more information. This had an impact of $19.4 million, or $0.22 per share on March 31, 2009 book value.
(3) Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums, after tax.
(4) Unearned revenue less pre-paid reinsurance premiums on credit derivatives, after tax.
(5) Effective January 1, 2009, the Company adopted FSP EITF 03-6-1, “Determining Whether Instruments Granted in Share-Based Payment Transactions Are Participating Securities” (“FSP”), which clarifies that share-based payment awards that entitle their holders to receive nonforfeitable dividends or dividend equivalents before vesting should be considered participating securities and shall be included in the calculation of basic and diluted earnings per share (“EPS”). Upon retrospective adoption of the FSP, Assured increased previously reported diluted EPS by $0.02 for the Q1 2008. Operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for both periods is positive, therefore the per diluted share calculation ignores the effect of the FSP and includes the effect of dilutive securities.
(6) Total may not add due to differences in calculating GAAP and non-GAAP per diluted share amounts.
(7) Represents a fair value component of the Company’s credit derivative contracts, which are included in credit derivative asset or liability line on the balance sheet, and committed capital securities.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].
NM = Not meaningful
1
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Income Statements
(dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)
|
| Quarter Ended |
| % Change |
| ||||
|
| 2009 |
| 2008 |
| 1Q-08 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Revenues |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Net earned premiums (1) |
| $ | 148.4 |
| $ | 46.8 |
| 217 | % |
Net investment income |
| 43.6 |
| 36.6 |
| 19 | % | ||
Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives |
| 29.7 |
| 27.6 |
| 8 | % | ||
Incurred losses on credit derivatives |
| (1.0 | ) | (3.2 | ) | (69 | )% | ||
Other income |
| 0.9 |
| — |
| NM |
| ||
Total revenues |
| 221.6 |
| 107.8 |
| 106 | % | ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Expenses |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses (1) |
| 79.8 |
| 55.1 |
| 45 | % | ||
Profit commission expense |
| 0.3 |
| 1.2 |
| (75 | )% | ||
Acquisition costs (1) |
| 23.4 |
| 11.9 |
| 97 | % | ||
Other operating expenses |
| 32.3 |
| 28.6 |
| 13 | % | ||
Interest and related expenses |
| 7.2 |
| 6.6 |
| 9 | % | ||
Total expenses |
| 143.0 |
| 103.4 |
| 38 | % | ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Operating income before provision (benefit) for income taxes |
| 78.6 |
| 4.4 |
| NM |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Total provision (benefit) for income taxes |
| 15.2 |
| (1.8 | ) | NM |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Operating income (b) |
| 63.4 |
| 6.2 |
| NM |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Plus: Realized (losses) gains on investments, after tax |
| (17.1 | ) | 0.4 |
| NM |
| ||
Plus: Unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax (2) |
| 39.1 |
| (175.8 | ) | NM |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Net income (loss) |
| $ | 85.5 |
| $ | (169.2 | ) | NM |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Per diluted share (3) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Operating income (b) |
| $ | 0.69 |
| $ | 0.08 |
| NM |
|
Plus: Realized (losses) gains on investments, after tax |
| (0.19 | ) | — |
| NM |
| ||
Plus: Unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax (2) |
| 0.43 |
| (2.20 | ) | NM |
| ||
Net income (loss) (5) |
| $ | 0.93 |
| $ | (2.09 | ) | NM |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Effect of refundings |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Earned premiums from refundings (3) |
| $ | 90.3 |
| $ | 2.4 |
| NM |
|
Operating income effect (3) |
| $ | 64.7 |
| $ | 1.2 |
| NM |
|
Operating income per diluted share effect (3) |
| $ | 0.71 |
| $ | 0.02 |
| NM |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Weighted average shares outstanding |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Basic shares outstanding - GAAP (4) |
| 90.8 |
| 80.0 |
| 14 | % | ||
Diluted shares outstanding - GAAP (4) |
| 91.2 |
| 80.0 |
| 14 | % | ||
Diluted shares outstanding - non-GAAP (4) |
| 91.5 |
| 81.3 |
| 13 | % | ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Shares outstanding at the end of period |
| 90.1 |
| 80.1 |
| 12 | % |
(1) The Company adopted FAS No. 163 “Accounting for Financial Guarantee Insurance Contracts” (“FAS 163”) effective January 1, 2009. Please refer to “Adoption of FAS 163” page for more information.
(2) The quarters ended March 31, 2009 and 2008 included a fair value after-tax gain of $12.8 million, or $0.14 per diluted share, and $5.5 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, respectively, related to Assured Guaranty Corp.’s committed capital securities.
(3) Q1 2009 amount includes $73.6 million of net earned premium from cancellation of certain UK deals. It had operating income effect of $53.7 million, or $0.59 per diluted share.
(4) Effective January 1, 2009, the Company adopted FSP EITF 03-6-1, “Determining Whether Instruments Granted in Share-Based Payment Transactions Are Participating Securities” (“FSP”), which clarifies that share-based payment awards that entitle their holders to receive nonforfeitable dividends or dividend equivalents before vesting should be considered participating securities and shall be included in the calculation of basic and diluted earnings per share (“EPS”). Upon retrospective adoption of the FSP, Assured increased previously reported diluted EPS by $0.02 for the Q1 2008. Operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for both periods is positive, therefore the per diluted share calculation ignores the effect of the FSP and includes the effect of dilutive securities.
(5) Total may not add due to differences in calculating GAAP and non-GAAP per diluted share amounts.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b)].
NM = Not meaningful
2
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)
|
| As of : |
| ||||
|
| March 31, |
| December 31, |
| ||
|
| 2009 |
| 2008 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Assets |
|
|
|
|
| ||
Fixed maturity securities, at fair value |
| $ | 3,176.2 |
| $ | 3,154.1 |
|
Short-term investments, at cost which approximates fair value |
| 616.8 |
| 477.2 |
| ||
Total investments |
| 3,793.0 |
| 3,631.3 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Cash and cash equivalents |
| 19.3 |
| 12.3 |
| ||
Accrued investment income |
| 34.3 |
| 32.8 |
| ||
Deferred acquisition costs (1) |
| 382.5 |
| 288.6 |
| ||
Prepaid reinsurance premiums (1) |
| 23.7 |
| 18.9 |
| ||
Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses (1) |
| 7.8 |
| 6.5 |
| ||
Premiums receivable (1) |
| 748.4 |
| 15.7 |
| ||
Goodwill |
| 85.4 |
| 85.4 |
| ||
Credit derivative assets |
| 149.8 |
| 147.0 |
| ||
Deferred tax asset (1) |
| 117.6 |
| 129.1 |
| ||
Current income taxes receivable |
| — |
| 21.4 |
| ||
Salvage recoverable (1) |
| 120.5 |
| 80.2 |
| ||
Committed capital securities, at fair value |
| 70.7 |
| 51.1 |
| ||
Other assets |
| 35.3 |
| 35.3 |
| ||
Total assets |
| $ | 5,588.3 |
| $ | 4,555.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Liabilities and shareholders’ equity |
|
|
|
|
| ||
Liabilities |
|
|
|
|
| ||
Unearned premium reserves (1) |
| $ | 2,153.3 |
| $ | 1,233.7 |
|
Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses (1) |
| 222.6 |
| 196.8 |
| ||
Profit commissions payable |
| 7.8 |
| 8.6 |
| ||
Reinsurance balances payable (1) |
| 22.7 |
| 18.0 |
| ||
Current income taxes payable |
| 4.6 |
| — |
| ||
Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts |
| 31.0 |
| 30.7 |
| ||
Credit derivative liabilities |
| 706.8 |
| 733.8 |
| ||
Senior notes |
| 197.5 |
| 197.4 |
| ||
Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures |
| 149.8 |
| 149.8 |
| ||
Other liabilities |
| 66.9 |
| 60.8 |
| ||
Total liabilities |
| 3,562.7 |
| 2,629.5 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Shareholders’ equity |
|
|
|
|
| ||
Common stock |
| 0.9 |
| 0.9 |
| ||
Additional paid-in capital |
| 1,284.1 |
| 1,284.4 |
| ||
Retained earnings (1) |
| 738.8 |
| 638.1 |
| ||
Accumulated other comprehensive income |
| 1.8 |
| 2.9 |
| ||
Total shareholders’ equity |
| 2,025.6 |
| 1,926.2 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity |
| $ | 5,588.3 |
| $ | 4,555.7 |
|
(1) The Company adopted FAS 163 effective January 1, 2009. Please refer to “Adoption of FAS 163” page for more information.
3
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
|
| As of March 31, 2009 |
| As of December 31, 2008 |
| ||||||||||||||
|
| Assured |
| Assured |
| Consolidated |
| Assured |
| Assured |
| Consolidated |
| ||||||
Statutory surplus and reserves |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Unearned premium reserve (2) |
| $ | 650 |
| $ | 897 |
| $ | 1,547 |
| $ | 570 |
| $ | 720 |
| $ | 1,290 |
|
Contingency reserve |
| 754 |
| — |
| 754 |
| 712 |
| — |
| 712 |
| ||||||
Policyholders’ surplus |
| 356 |
| 1,035 |
| 1,391 |
| 378 |
| 1,220 |
| 1,598 |
| ||||||
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves (3) |
| 14 |
| 62 |
| 76 |
| 15 |
| 37 |
| 52 |
| ||||||
Total policyholders’ surplus and reserves |
| $ | 1,774 |
| $ | 1,994 |
| $ | 3,768 |
| $ | 1,675 |
| $ | 1,977 |
| $ | 3,652 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Claims paying resources |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Policyholders’ surplus |
| $ | 356 |
| $ | 1,035 |
| $ | 1,391 |
| $ | 378 |
| $ | 1,220 |
| $ | 1,598 |
|
Contingency reserve |
| 754 |
| — |
| 754 |
| 712 |
| — |
| 712 |
| ||||||
Qualified statutory capital |
| 1,110 |
| 1,035 |
| 2,145 |
| 1,090 |
| 1,220 |
| 2,310 |
| ||||||
Unearned premium reserve (2) |
| 650 |
| 897 |
| 1,547 |
| 570 |
| 720 |
| 1,290 |
| ||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves (3) |
| 14 |
| 62 |
| 76 |
| 15 |
| 37 |
| 52 |
| ||||||
Total policyholders’ surplus and reserves |
|
| 1,774 |
|
| 1,994 |
|
| 3,768 |
| 1,675 |
| 1,977 |
| 3,652 |
| |||
Present value of installment premium (d)(6) |
| 672 |
| 381 |
| 1,053 |
| 566 |
| 345 |
| 910 |
| ||||||
Standby line of credit/stop loss |
| 200 |
| 200 |
| 400 |
| 200 |
| 200 |
| 400 |
| ||||||
Total claims paying resources |
| $ | 2,646 |
| $ | 2,575 |
| $ | 5,221 |
| $ | 2,441 |
| $ | 2,522 |
| $ | 4,962 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Net par insured outstanding |
| $ | 120,444 |
| $ | 116,736 |
| $ | 237,176 |
| $ | 111,025 |
| $ | 111,715 |
| $ | 222,722 |
|
Net debt service outstanding |
| $ | 169,034 |
| $ | 188,175 |
| $ | 357,216 |
| $ | 164,283 |
| $ | 184,541 |
| $ | 348,816 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Ratios: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Net par insured to statutory capital |
| 109:1 |
| 113:1 |
| 111:1 |
| 102:1 |
| 92:1 |
| 96:1 |
| ||||||
Capital ratio (4) |
| 152:1 |
| 182:1 |
| 167:1 |
| 151:1 |
| 151:1 |
| 151:1 |
| ||||||
Financial resources ratio (5) |
| 64:1 |
| 73:1 |
| 68:1 |
| 67:1 |
| 73:1 |
| 70:1 |
|
(1) Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) numbers are the Company’s estimate of U.S. statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements.
(2) For 2008, unearned premium reserve for AG Re is U.S. GAAP based, includes unearned revenues on credit derivatives and is net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.
(3) For 2008, loss and loss adjustment reserves for AG Re are U.S. GAAP based, includes loss reserves for credit derivatives and is net of reinsurance recoverable and portfolio reserves.
(4) The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by qualified statutory capital.
(5) The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.
(6) Includes financial guaranty and credit derivatives.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].
4
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
New Business Production
(dollars in millions)
|
| Quarter Ended |
| % Change |
| ||||
|
| 2009 |
| 2008 |
| 1Q-08 |
| ||
Consolidated gross written premiums (GWP) analysis: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Present value of insurance and credit derivative GWP (PVP) (a) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
U.S. public finance |
| $ | 217.5 |
| $ | 140.9 |
| 54 | % |
U.S. structured finance |
| 2.4 |
| 74.3 |
| (97 | )% | ||
International |
| 1.8 |
| 61.4 |
| (97 | )% | ||
Total PVP |
| 221.7 |
| 276.6 |
| (20 | )% | ||
Less: PVP of credit derivatives |
| 2.4 |
| 93.4 |
| (97 | )% | ||
PVP of financial guaranty GWP |
| 219.3 |
| 183.2 |
| 20 | % | ||
Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP |
| 11.6 |
| 36.1 |
| (68 | )% | ||
Total: Financial guaranty upfront GWP |
| 207.7 |
| 147.1 |
| 41 | % | ||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP |
| — |
| 24.7 |
| NM |
| ||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment PVP adjustment (1) |
| 27.1 |
| — |
| NM |
| ||
Total financial guaranty GWP |
| 234.8 |
| 171.8 |
| 37 | % | ||
Plus: Mortgage guaranty segment GWP |
| — |
| 0.5 |
| NM |
| ||
Plus: Other segment GWP |
| 0.0 |
| 3.5 |
| NM |
| ||
Total GWP |
| $ | 234.8 |
| $ | 175.8 |
| 34 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Consolidated financial guaranty gross par written: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
U.S. public finance |
| $ | 21,629 |
| $ | 9,716 |
| 123 | % |
U.S. structured finance |
| 92 |
| 5,990 |
| (98 | )% | ||
International |
| 556 |
| 4,288 |
| (87 | )% | ||
Total |
| $ | 22,276 |
| $ | 19,995 |
| 11 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Financial guaranty direct gross written premiums (GWP) analysis: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Financial guaranty direct PVP (a) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
U.S. public finance |
| $ | 126.8 |
| $ | 123.3 |
| 3 | % |
U.S. structured finance |
| 2.4 |
| 71.3 |
| (97 | )% | ||
International |
| 1.7 |
| 60.5 |
| (97 | )% | ||
Financial guaranty direct PVP(a): |
| 130.9 |
| 255.2 |
| (49 | )% | ||
Less: PVP of credit derivatives GWP |
| 2.4 |
| 91.5 |
| (97 | )% | ||
PVP of financial guaranty direct GWP |
| 128.5 |
| 163.7 |
| (22 | )% | ||
Less: Present value of insurance installment premiums (a) |
| 6.5 |
| 33.8 |
| (81 | )% | ||
Upfront financial guaranty gross written premiums (GWP) |
| 122.0 |
| 129.9 |
| (6 | )% | ||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP |
| — |
| 16.5 |
| NM |
| ||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment PVP adjustment (1) |
| 18.1 |
| — |
| NM |
| ||
Financial guaranty direct GWP |
| $ | 140.1 |
| $ | 146.4 |
| (4 | )% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Financial guaranty direct gross par written: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
U.S. public finance |
| $ | 8,200 |
| $ | 7,213 |
| 14 | % |
U.S. structured finance |
| 71 |
| 5,623 |
| (99 | )% | ||
International |
| 90 |
| 3,918 |
| (98 | )% | ||
Total |
| $ | 8,361 |
| $ | 16,755 |
| (50 | )% |
(1) Q1 2009 amount represents the difference in management estimates for the discount rate applied to future installments as well as the estimated term for future installments compared to FAS 163.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures[PVP (a)].
NM = Not meaningful
5
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Segment Consolidation
(dollars in millions)
|
| Quarter Ended March 31, 2009 |
| ||||||||||||||||
|
| Financial |
| Financial |
|
|
| Total |
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
|
| Guaranty |
| Guaranty |
| Mortgage |
| Financial |
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
|
| Direct |
| Reinsurance(1),(2) |
| Guaranty |
| Guaranty |
| Other |
| Total |
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Total PVP(a) |
| $ | 130.9 |
| $ | 90.8 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 221.7 |
|
|
| $ | 221.7 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Income statement: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Net earned premiums (1) |
| 101.5 |
| 46.2 |
| 0.8 |
| 148.4 |
| — |
| 148.4 |
| ||||||
Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Net credit derivative premiums earned |
| 28.4 |
| 1.2 |
| — |
| 29.6 |
| — |
| 29.6 |
| ||||||
Net credit derivative recoveries (losses) |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| ||||||
Ceding commissions income (expense), net |
| 0.4 |
| (0.3 | ) | — |
| 0.1 |
| — |
| 0.1 |
| ||||||
Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives |
| 28.8 |
| 0.9 |
| — |
| 29.7 |
| — |
| 29.7 |
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Total revenues |
| 130.3 |
| 47.1 |
| 0.8 |
| 178.1 |
| — |
| 178.1 |
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses (1) |
| 11.7 |
| 36.8 |
| 31.2 |
| 79.8 |
| — |
| 79.8 |
| ||||||
Incurred losses (gains) on credit derivatives |
| 1.4 |
| (0.4 | ) | — |
| 1.0 |
| — |
| 1.0 |
| ||||||
Total loss and loss adjustment expenses |
| 13.1 |
| 36.5 |
| 31.2 |
| 80.8 |
| — |
| 80.8 |
| ||||||
Profit commission expense |
| — |
| 0.2 |
| 0.1 |
| 0.3 |
| — |
| 0.3 |
| ||||||
Acquisition costs (1) |
| 6.2 |
| 17.1 |
| 0.1 |
| 23.4 |
| — |
| 23.4 |
| ||||||
Operating expenses |
| 24.0 |
| 7.6 |
| 0.7 |
| 32.3 |
| — |
| 32.3 |
| ||||||
Total underwriting expenses |
| $ | 43.3 |
| $ | 61.4 |
| $ | 32.1 |
| $ | 136.8 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 136.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Underwriting (loss) gain |
| $ | 87.0 |
| $ | (14.2 | ) | $ | (31.3 | ) | $ | 41.5 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 41.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e) |
| 10.1 | % | 76.9 | % | 3,900.0 | % | 45.4 | % |
|
| 45.4 | % | ||||||
Expense ratio (e) |
| 22.9 | % | 53.1 | % | 112.5 | % | 31.4 | % |
|
| 31.4 | % | ||||||
Combined ratio (e) |
| 33.0 | % | 130.0 | % | 4,012.5 | % | 76.8 | % |
|
| 76.8 | % |
|
| Quarter Ended March 31, 2008 |
| ||||||||||||||||
|
| Financial |
| Financial |
|
|
| Total |
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
|
| Guaranty |
| Guaranty |
| Mortgage |
| Financial |
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
|
| Direct |
| Reinsurance(2) |
| Guaranty |
| Guaranty |
| Other |
| Total |
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Total PVP(a) |
| $ | 255.2 |
| $ | 21.4 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 276.6 |
|
|
| $ | 276.6 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Income statement: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Net earned premiums |
| 17.3 |
| 27.8 |
| 1.9 |
| 46.8 |
| — |
| 46.8 |
| ||||||
Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Net credit derivative premiums earned |
| 27.3 |
| 0.5 |
| — |
| 27.8 |
| — |
| 27.8 |
| ||||||
Net credit derivative recoveries (losses) |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| ||||||
Ceding commissions income (expense), net |
| (0.1 | ) | (0.2 | ) | — |
| (0.2 | ) | — |
| (0.2 | ) | ||||||
Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives |
| 27.3 |
| 0.3 |
| — |
| 27.6 |
| — |
| 27.6 |
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Total revenues |
| 44.5 |
| 28.1 |
| 1.9 |
| 74.4 |
| — |
| 74.4 |
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses |
| 35.9 |
| 19.2 |
| — |
| 55.1 |
| — |
| 55.1 |
| ||||||
Incurred losses on credit derivatives |
| 3.2 |
| — |
| — |
| 3.2 |
| — |
| 3.2 |
| ||||||
Total loss and loss adjustment expenses |
| 39.1 |
| 19.2 |
| — |
| 58.3 |
| — |
| 58.3 |
| ||||||
Profit commission expense |
| — |
| 1.1 |
| 0.1 |
| 1.2 |
| — |
| 1.2 |
| ||||||
Acquisition costs |
| 3.0 |
| 8.8 |
| 0.1 |
| 11.9 |
| — |
| 11.9 |
| ||||||
Operating expenses |
| 21.3 |
| 6.4 |
| 0.9 |
| 28.6 |
| — |
| 28.6 |
| ||||||
Total underwriting expenses |
| $ | 63.4 |
| $ | 35.5 |
| $ | 1.1 |
| $ | 99.9 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 99.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Underwriting gain |
| $ | (18.9 | ) | $ | (7.3 | ) | $ | 0.8 |
| $ | (25.4 | ) | $ | — |
| $ | (25.4 | ) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e) |
| 87.7 | % | 67.8 | % | 0.0 | % | 78.1 | % |
|
| 78.1 | % | ||||||
Expense ratio (e) |
| 54.6 | % | 58.1 | % | 57.9 | % | 56.1 | % |
|
| 56.1 | % | ||||||
Combined ratio (e) |
| 142.3 | % | 125.9 | % | 57.9 | % | 134.2 | % |
|
| 134.2 | % |
(1) The Company adopted FAS 163 effective January 1, 2009. Please refer to “Adoption of FAS 163” page for more information.
(2) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio (e)].
6
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
|
| 1Q-08 |
| 2Q-08 |
| 3Q-08 |
| 4Q-08 |
| 1Q-09 |
| ||||||||
Income statement: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Net earned premiums: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Scheduled net earned premiums (1) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
U.S. public finance |
| $ | 2.8 |
| $ | 5.9 |
| $ | 9.9 |
| $ | 9.5 |
| $ | 10.7 |
| |||
U.S. structured finance |
| 11.3 |
| 13.6 |
| 12.3 |
| 11.2 |
| 14.4 |
| ||||||||
International |
| 3.1 |
| 1.3 |
| 4.7 |
| 3.0 |
| 2.8 |
| ||||||||
Total scheduled net earned premiums |
| 17.3 |
| 20.8 |
| 26.9 |
| 23.7 |
| 27.9 |
| ||||||||
Net earned premiums from refundings (1), (2) |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 1.3 |
| 73.6 |
| ||||||||
Total net earned premiums |
| 17.3 |
| 20.8 |
| 26.9 |
| 25.0 |
| 101.5 |
| ||||||||
Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Net credit derivative premiums earned |
| 27.3 |
| 30.6 |
| 28.4 |
| 26.8 |
| 28.4 |
| ||||||||
Net credit derivative recoveries (losses) |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| ||||||||
Ceding commissions income (expense), net |
| (0.1 | ) | 0.2 |
| 0.2 |
| 0.3 |
| 0.4 |
| ||||||||
Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives |
| 27.3 |
| 30.9 |
| 28.6 |
| 27.1 |
| 28.8 |
| ||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Total revenues |
| 44.5 |
| 51.7 |
| 55.5 |
| 52.1 |
| 130.3 |
| ||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)(1): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Case |
| 0.2 |
| 32.0 |
| 99.9 |
| 70.4 |
| 11.7 |
| ||||||||
Portfolio |
| 35.7 |
| (3.8 | ) | (34.0 | ) | (3.7 | ) | — |
| ||||||||
Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) - financial guaranty |
| 35.9 |
| 28.2 |
| 65.9 |
| 66.7 |
| 11.7 |
| ||||||||
Incurred losses on credit derivatives |
| 3.2 |
| 5.6 |
| 10.1 |
| 19.5 |
| 1.4 |
| ||||||||
Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) |
| 39.1 |
| 33.8 |
| 76.0 |
| 86.2 |
| 13.1 |
| ||||||||
Profit commission expense |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| ||||||||
Acquisition costs (1) |
| 3.0 |
| 3.1 |
| 4.0 |
| 3.9 |
| 6.2 |
| ||||||||
Operating expenses |
| 21.3 |
| 15.2 |
| 15.4 |
| 9.6 |
| 24.0 |
| ||||||||
Total expenses |
| $ | 63.4 |
| $ | 52.1 |
| $ | 95.5 |
| $ | 99.7 |
| $ | 43.3 |
| |||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Underwriting gain (loss) |
| $ | (18.9 | ) | $ | (0.4 | ) | $ | (40.0 | ) | $ | (47.6 | ) | $ | 87.0 |
| |||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e) |
| 87.7 | % | 65.7 | % | 137.5 | % | 166.4 | % | 10.1 | % | ||||||||
Expense ratio (e) |
| 54.6 | % | 35.1 | % | 34.8 | % | 25.6 | % | 22.9 | % | ||||||||
Combined ratio (e) |
| 142.3 | % | 100.8 | % | 172.3 | % | 192.0 | % | 33.0 | % | ||||||||
(1) The Company adopted FAS 163 effective January 1, 2009. Please refer to “Adoption of FAS 163” page for more information.
(2) Q1 2009 amount represents net earned premium from cancellation of certain UK deals.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio (e)].
7
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
|
| 1Q-08 |
| 2Q-08 |
| 3Q-08 |
| 4Q-08 |
| 1Q-09 |
| |||||
PVP(a): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
U.S. public finance |
| $ | 123.3 |
| $ | 183.2 |
| $ | 67.7 |
| $ | 57.4 |
| $ | 126.8 |
|
U.S. structured finance |
| 71.3 |
| 51.9 |
| 14.5 |
| 49.8 |
| 2.4 |
| |||||
International |
| 60.5 |
| 6.3 |
| — |
| 14.7 |
| 1.7 |
| |||||
Total PVP |
| 255.2 |
| 241.4 |
| 82.2 |
| 121.9 |
| 130.9 |
| |||||
Less: PVP of credit derivatives GWP |
| 91.5 |
| 52.3 |
| — |
| 57.6 |
| 2.4 |
| |||||
PVP of financial guaranty GWP |
| 163.7 |
| 189.1 |
| 82.2 |
| 64.2 |
| 128.5 |
| |||||
Less: Present value of insurance installment premiums (a) |
| 33.8 |
| 5.9 |
| 30.3 |
| 6.9 |
| 6.5 |
| |||||
Upfront financial guaranty gross written premiums (GWP) |
| 129.9 |
| 183.2 |
| 51.9 |
| 57.4 |
| 122.0 |
| |||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP |
| 16.5 |
| 14.6 |
| 19.5 |
| 11.7 |
| — |
| |||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment PVP adjustment (2) |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 18.1 |
| |||||
Financial guaranty direct GWP |
| $ | 146.4 |
| $ | 197.8 |
| $ | 71.4 |
| $ | 69.1 |
| $ | 140.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Gross par written: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
U.S. public finance |
| $ | 7,213 |
| $ | 13,170 |
| $ | 5,574 |
| $ | 4,752 |
| $ | 8,200 |
|
U.S. structured finance |
| 5,623 |
| 2,516 |
| 1,920 |
| 2,026 |
| 71 |
| |||||
International |
| 3,918 |
| 495 |
| — |
| 359 |
| 90 |
| |||||
Total |
| $ | 16,755 |
| $ | 16,181 |
| $ | 7,494 |
| $ | 7,137 |
| $ | 8,361 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Net par outstanding: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
U.S. public finance |
| $ | 14,607 |
| $ | 27,602 |
| $ | 32,889 |
| $ | 37,461 |
| $ | 45,548 |
|
U.S. structured finance |
| 66,324 |
| 67,816 |
| 66,567 |
| 65,589 |
| 63,695 |
| |||||
International |
| 35,039 |
| 35,158 |
| 32,629 |
| 28,975 |
| 26,327 |
| |||||
Total |
| $ | 115,970 |
| $ | 130,576 |
| $ | 132,084 |
| $ | 132,026 |
| $ | 135,570 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Unearned premium reserve, net of ceded reinsurance - financial guaranty |
| $ | 354.4 |
| $ | 526.2 |
| $ | 569.4 |
| $ | 612.4 |
| $ | 997.8 |
|
Unearned credit derivative revenues, net of ceded reinsurance |
| 16.7 |
| 18.4 |
| 14.2 |
| 19.7 |
| 18.3 |
| |||||
Net present value of installment premiums in force - credit derivatives (d) |
| 481.7 |
| 531.6 |
| 408.0 |
| 436.9 |
| 530.4 |
| |||||
Net present value of installment premiums in force - financial guaranty (d), (1) |
| 234.1 |
| 231.9 |
| 241.3 |
| 229.3 |
| — |
|
(1) The Company adopted FAS 163 effective January 1, 2009. Net present value of installment premiums in force for financial guaranty are included in “unearned premium reserve, net of ceded reinsurance - financial guaranty” line. Please refer to “Adoption of FAS 163” page for more information.
(2) Q1 2009 amount represents the difference in management estimates for the discount rate applied to future installments as well as the estimated term for future installments compared to FAS 163.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].
8
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
|
| 1Q-08 |
| 2Q-08 |
| 3Q-08 |
| 4Q-08 |
| 1Q-09 |
| |||||||
Income statement: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
Net earned premiums (1): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
Scheduled net earned premiums |
| $ | 25.4 |
| $ | 27.5 |
| $ | 25.7 |
| $ | 26.7 |
| $ | 29.5 |
| ||
Net earned premiums from refundings |
| 2.4 |
| 2.1 |
| 31.7 |
| 24.4 |
| 16.7 |
| |||||||
Total net earned premiums |
| 27.8 |
| 29.6 |
| 57.4 |
| 51.1 |
| 46.2 |
| |||||||
Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
Net credit derivative premiums earned |
| 0.5 |
| 0.8 |
| 2.1 |
| 1.5 |
| 1.2 |
| |||||||
Net credit derivative recoveries (losses) |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
Ceding commissions income (expense), net |
| (0.2 | ) | (0.3 | ) | (0.7 | ) | (0.4 | ) | (0.3 | ) | |||||||
Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives |
| 0.3 |
| 0.6 |
| 1.4 |
| 1.1 |
| 0.9 |
| |||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
Total revenues |
| 28.1 |
| 30.2 |
| 58.8 |
| 52.2 |
| 47.1 |
| |||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) (1): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
Case |
| 11.7 |
| 17.2 |
| 18.0 |
| 23.9 |
| 36.8 |
| |||||||
Portfolio |
| 7.4 |
| (5.9 | ) | (2.5 | ) | (1.5 | ) | — |
| |||||||
Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) - financial guaranty |
| 19.2 |
| 11.3 |
| 15.5 |
| 22.4 |
| 36.8 |
| |||||||
Incurred losses on credit derivatives |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 5.4 |
| (0.4 | ) | |||||||
Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) |
| 19.2 |
| 11.3 |
| 15.5 |
| 27.8 |
| 36.5 |
| |||||||
Profit commission expense |
| 1.1 |
| 0.9 |
| (1.5 | ) | 0.5 |
| 0.2 |
| |||||||
Acquisition costs (1) |
| 8.8 |
| 8.6 |
| 15.1 |
| 14.2 |
| 17.1 |
| |||||||
Operating expenses |
| 6.4 |
| 4.0 |
| 5.6 |
| 3.7 |
| 7.6 |
| |||||||
Total expenses |
| $ | 35.5 |
| $ | 24.8 |
| $ | 34.8 |
| $ | 46.1 |
| $ | 61.4 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Underwriting gain (loss) |
| $ | (7.3 | ) | $ | 5.4 |
| $ | 24.0 |
| $ | 6.1 |
| $ | (14.2 | ) | ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e) |
| 67.8 | % | 37.1 | % | 26.1 | % | 52.8 | % | 76.9 | % | |||||||
Expense ratio (e) |
| 58.1 | % | 45.2 | % | 33.5 | % | 35.6 | % | 53.1 | % | |||||||
Combined ratio (e) |
| 125.9 | % | 82.3 | % | 59.6 | % | 88.4 | % | 130.0 | % | |||||||
(1) The Company adopted FAS 163 effective January 1, 2009. Please refer to “Adoption of FAS 163” page for more information.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio (e)].
9
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1) (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
|
| 1Q-08 |
| 2Q-08 |
| 3Q-08 |
| 4Q-08 |
| 1Q-09 |
| |||||
PVP (a): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
U.S. public finance |
| $ | 17.6 |
| $ | 29.0 |
| $ | 39.5 |
| $ | 6.2 |
| $ | 90.7 |
|
U.S. structured finance |
| 2.9 |
| 4.2 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||
International |
| 0.9 |
| 4.2 |
| 17.7 |
| — |
| 0.1 |
| |||||
Total PVP |
| 21.4 |
| 37.5 |
| 57.2 |
| 6.2 |
| 90.8 |
| |||||
Less: PVP of credit derivatives GWP |
| 1.9 |
| — |
| 1.1 |
| — |
| — |
| |||||
PVP of financial guaranty GWP |
| 19.5 |
| 37.5 |
| 56.1 |
| 6.2 |
| 90.8 |
| |||||
Less: Present value of financial guaranty installment premiums (a) |
| 2.4 |
| 6.1 |
| 7.5 |
| 3.7 |
| 5.1 |
| |||||
Upfront financial guaranty gross written premiums (GWP) |
| 17.1 |
| 31.4 |
| 48.6 |
| 2.5 |
| 85.7 |
| |||||
Plus: Upfront premium due to commutation (2) |
| — |
| — |
| (20.8 | ) | — |
| — |
| |||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP |
| 8.3 |
| 16.6 |
| 13.4 |
| 12.1 |
| — |
| |||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment PVP adjustment (3) |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 8.9 |
| |||||
Financial guaranty reinsurance GWP |
| $ | 25.4 |
| $ | 48.0 |
| $ | 41.2 |
| $ | 14.7 |
| $ | 94.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Gross par written: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
U.S. public finance |
| $ | 2,503 |
| $ | 1,492 |
| $ | 2,154 |
| $ | 162 |
| $ | 13,429 |
|
U.S. structured finance |
| 367 |
| 283 |
| 6 |
| — |
| 21 |
| |||||
International |
| 370 |
| 131 |
| 1,122 |
| (18 | ) | 466 |
| |||||
Total |
| $ | 3,240 |
| $ | 1,906 |
| $ | 3,282 |
| $ | 144 |
| $ | 13,916 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Net par outstanding: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
U.S. public finance |
| $ | 75,382 |
| $ | 76,003 |
| $ | 72,695 |
| $ | 69,860 |
| $ | 81,616 |
|
U.S. structured finance |
| 9,567 |
| 10,139 |
| 9,216 |
| 8,783 |
| 8,421 |
| |||||
International |
| 13,957 |
| 13,684 |
| 13,347 |
| 12,052 |
| 11,568 |
| |||||
Total |
| $ | 98,906 |
| $ | 99,826 |
| $ | 95,258 |
| $ | 90,696 |
| $ | 101,606 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Unearned premium reserve, net of ceded reinsurance - financial guaranty |
| $ | 623.7 |
| $ | 642.1 |
| $ | 625.9 |
| $ | 589.6 |
| $ | 1,118.6 |
|
Unearned credit derivative revenues, net of ceded reinsurance |
| 4.6 |
| 4.8 |
| 4.4 |
| 3.6 |
| 3.6 |
| |||||
Net present value of installment premiums in force - credit derivatives (d) |
| 15.5 |
| 11.8 |
| 11.2 |
| 10.1 |
| 14.2 |
| |||||
Net present value of installment premiums in force - financial guaranty (d)(4) |
| 261.2 |
| 258.2 |
| 253.4 |
| 233.2 |
| — |
|
(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
(2) Relates to commutation of XLFA of approximately $2.1 billion par value of business.
(3) Q1 2009 amount represents the difference in management estimates for the discount rate applied to future installments as well as the estimated term for future installments compared to FAS 163.
(4) The Company adopted FAS 163 effective January 1, 2009. Net present value of installment premiums in force for financial guaranty are included in “unearned premium reserve, net of ceded reinsurance - financial guaranty” line. Please refer to “Adoption of FAS 163” page for more information.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].
10
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Investment Portfolio
As of March 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
|
|
|
| Pre-Tax |
| After-Tax |
|
|
| Annualized |
| |||
|
| Amortized |
| Book |
| Book |
| Fair |
| Investment |
| |||
|
| Cost |
| Yield |
| Yield |
| Value |
| Income |
| |||
Fixed maturity securities available for sale: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies |
| $ | 151.9 |
| 4.4 | % | 3.9 | % | $ | 170.6 |
| $ | 6.7 |
|
Agency obligations |
| 274.2 |
| 4.5 | % | 4.2 | % | 292.0 |
| 12.3 |
| |||
Foreign government securities |
| 61.6 |
| 4.2 | % | 2.8 | % | 66.1 |
| 2.6 |
| |||
Obligations of states and political subdivisions |
| 626.8 |
| 4.8 | % | 4.5 | % | 629.3 |
| 29.9 |
| |||
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions (1) |
| 619.0 |
| 4.6 | % | 4.4 | % | 618.7 |
| 28.7 |
| |||
Corporate securities |
| 278.8 |
| 5.9 | % | 5.0 | % | 262.2 |
| 16.3 |
| |||
Mortgage-backed securities (2): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Pass-throughs |
| 1,042.4 |
| 8.3 | % | 7.6 | % | 1,020.6 |
| 86.1 |
| |||
PACs |
| 46.9 |
| 4.9 | % | 4.6 | % | 47.6 |
| 2.3 |
| |||
Asset-backed securities (3) |
| 70.9 |
| 3.7 | % | 3.3 | % | 69.1 |
| 2.6 |
| |||
Total fixed maturity securities available for sale |
| 3,172.4 |
| 5.9 | % | 5.4 | % | 3,176.2 |
| 187.5 |
| |||
Short-term investments |
| 616.8 |
| 0.4 | % | 0.3 | % | 616.8 |
| 2.3 |
| |||
Total investments |
| $ | 3,789.3 |
| 5.0 | % | 4.6 | % | $ | 3,793.0 |
| $ | 189.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
|
| Fair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Ratings (4): |
| Value |
| % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Treasury and U.S. government obligations |
| $ | 170.6 |
| 5.4 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Agency obligations |
| 292.0 |
| 9.2 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
AAA/Aaa |
| 1,300.8 |
| 41.0 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
AA/Aa |
| 882.3 |
| 27.8 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
A/A |
| 449.3 |
| 14.1 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
BBB |
| 45.1 |
| 1.4 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Below investment grade |
| 36.1 |
| 1.1 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Total |
| $ | 3,176.2 |
| 100.0 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Duration of investment portfolio (in years): |
|
|
| 3.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1) Reflects obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by other financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds average A+.
(2) $1.5 million is U.S. subprime RMBS, which has an average rating of AAA.
(3) Contains no CDOs of ABS.
(4) Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody’s Investor Services and Standard & Poor’s classifications.
11
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization (1)
(dollars in millions)
|
|
|
| Estimated |
| ||
|
| Estimated Net |
| Ending Net |
| ||
|
| Debt Service |
| Debt Service |
| ||
|
| Amortization |
| Outstanding |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Financial Guaranty Direct: |
|
|
|
|
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
2009 (as of March 31) |
|
|
| $ | 183,907 |
| |
2009 (April - December) |
| $ | 7,570 |
| 176,337 |
| |
2010 |
| 11,335 |
| 165,002 |
| ||
2011 |
| 12,093 |
| 152,909 |
| ||
2012 |
| 15,544 |
| 137,365 |
| ||
2013 |
| 13,777 |
| 123,587 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
2009-2013 |
| 60,320 |
| 123,587 |
| ||
2014-2018 |
| 50,856 |
| 72,732 |
| ||
2019-2023 |
| 23,886 |
| 48,845 |
| ||
2024-2028 |
| 16,429 |
| 32,417 |
| ||
After 2028 |
| 32,417 |
| — |
| ||
Total |
| $ | 183,907 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance: |
|
|
|
|
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
2009 (as of March 31) |
|
|
| $ | 173,309 |
| |
2009 (April - December) |
| $ | 6,722 |
| 166,587 |
| |
2010 |
| 8,118 |
| 158,469 |
| ||
2011 |
| 8,472 |
| 149,997 |
| ||
2012 |
| 8,031 |
| 141,967 |
| ||
2013 |
| 7,730 |
| 134,237 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
2009-2013 |
| 39,072 |
| 134,237 |
| ||
2014-2018 |
| 37,702 |
| 96,535 |
| ||
2019-2023 |
| 32,248 |
| 64,286 |
| ||
2024-2028 |
| 25,265 |
| 39,022 |
| ||
After 2028 |
| 39,022 |
| — |
| ||
Total |
| $ | 173,309 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Total Financial Guaranty: |
|
|
|
|
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
2009 (as of March 31) |
|
|
| $ | 357,216 |
| |
2009 (April - December) |
| $ | 14,292 |
| 342,924 |
| |
2010 |
| 19,453 |
| 323,471 |
| ||
2011 |
| 20,565 |
| 302,906 |
| ||
2012 |
| 23,575 |
| 279,332 |
| ||
2013 |
| 21,507 |
| 257,824 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
2009-2013 |
| 99,392 |
| 257,824 |
| ||
2014-2018 |
| 88,558 |
| 169,267 |
| ||
2019-2023 |
| 56,135 |
| 113,132 |
| ||
2024-2028 |
| 41,694 |
| 71,438 |
| ||
After 2028 |
| 71,438 |
| — |
| ||
Total |
| $ | 357,216 |
|
|
|
(1) Represents amortization of existing guaranteed portfolio (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of March 31, 2009. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations.
12
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Net Future Installment Premiums
(dollars in millions)
|
|
|
| Estimated |
| CDS and Other |
| Total Estimated |
| ||||
|
|
|
| Net Unearned |
| Installment |
| Net Future |
| ||||
|
| Net Unearned |
| Premium |
| Earned |
| Premium |
| ||||
|
| Premiums (1), (2) |
| Amortization (2) |
| Premiums (3) |
| Earnings (2), (3) |
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Financial Guaranty Direct: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
2009 (as of March 31) |
| $ | 1,016.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
2009 (2nd, 3rd & 4th Qtrs) |
| 939.4 |
| $ | 76.7 |
| $ | 83.5 |
| $ | 160.2 |
| |
2010 |
| 848.4 |
| 91.0 |
| 114.7 |
| 205.8 |
| ||||
2011 |
| 768.5 |
| 79.9 |
| 106.4 |
| 186.3 |
| ||||
2012 |
| 698.1 |
| 70.3 |
| 86.7 |
| 157.0 |
| ||||
2013 |
| 636.7 |
| 61.5 |
| 68.7 |
| 130.2 |
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
2009-2013 |
| 636.7 |
| 379.4 |
| 460.0 |
| 839.4 |
| ||||
2014-2018 |
| 397.3 |
| 239.4 |
| 156.0 |
| 395.4 |
| ||||
2019-2023 |
| 233.4 |
| 163.8 |
| 75.1 |
| 239.0 |
| ||||
2024-2028 |
| 125.3 |
| 108.1 |
| 54.7 |
| 162.8 |
| ||||
After 2028 |
| — |
| 125.3 |
| 96.9 |
| 222.2 |
| ||||
Total |
|
|
| $ | 1,016.0 |
| $ | 842.7 |
| $ | 1,858.7 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
2009 (as of March 31) |
| $ | 1,122.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
2009 (2nd, 3rd & 4th Qtrs) |
| 1,052.4 |
| $ | 69.7 |
| $ | 15.5 |
| $ | 85.2 |
| |
2010 |
| 970.3 |
| 82.2 |
| 21.5 |
| 103.7 |
| ||||
2011 |
| 893.3 |
| 76.9 |
| 18.3 |
| 95.2 |
| ||||
2012 |
| 820.2 |
| 73.2 |
| 18.9 |
| 92.0 |
| ||||
2013 |
| 754.9 |
| 65.3 |
| 16.3 |
| 81.5 |
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
2009-2013 |
| 754.9 |
| 367.2 |
| 90.4 |
| 457.6 |
| ||||
2014-2018 |
| 486.6 |
| 268.3 |
| 66.6 |
| 334.9 |
| ||||
2019-2023 |
| 295.8 |
| 190.8 |
| 46.6 |
| 237.3 |
| ||||
2024-2028 |
| 155.6 |
| 140.2 |
| 31.0 |
| 171.3 |
| ||||
After 2028 |
| — |
| 155.6 |
| 26.5 |
| 182.1 |
| ||||
Total |
|
|
| $ | 1,122.2 |
| $ | 261.1 |
| $ | 1,383.2 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Total Financial Guaranty: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
2009 (as of March 31) |
| $ | 2,138.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
2009 (2nd, 3rd & 4th Qtrs) |
| 1,991.8 |
| $ | 146.4 |
| $ | 99.0 |
| $ | 245.4 |
| |
2010 |
| 1,818.6 |
| 173.2 |
| 136.2 |
| 309.4 |
| ||||
2011 |
| 1,661.8 |
| 156.8 |
| 124.6 |
| 281.5 |
| ||||
2012 |
| 1,518.3 |
| 143.5 |
| 105.5 |
| 249.0 |
| ||||
2013 |
| 1,391.6 |
| 126.7 |
| 85.0 |
| 211.7 |
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
2009-2013 |
| 1,391.6 |
| 746.6 |
| 550.5 |
| 1,297.1 |
| ||||
2014-2018 |
| 883.9 |
| 507.7 |
| 222.6 |
| 730.3 |
| ||||
2019-2023 |
| 529.2 |
| 354.6 |
| 121.7 |
| 476.3 |
| ||||
2024-2028 |
| 280.9 |
| 248.3 |
| 85.7 |
| 334.1 |
| ||||
After 2028 |
| — |
| 280.9 |
| 123.3 |
| 404.2 |
| ||||
Total |
|
|
| $ | 2,138.2 |
| $ | 1,103.8 |
| $ | 3,242.0 |
|
(1) Unearned premium amounts are U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums and include unearned credit derivative revenues net of ceded amounts.
(2) Includes credit derivatives.
(3) Includes earnings on future installments of CDS and discount accretion earnings on FG transactions.
13
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 5)
As of March 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type
|
| Financial Guaranty |
| Financial Guaranty |
| Consolidated |
| |||||||||
Sector: |
| Net Par |
| Avg. |
| Net Par |
| Avg. |
| Net Par |
| Avg. |
| |||
U.S. public finance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
General obligation |
| $ | 10,649 |
| A |
| $ | 24,315 |
| A+ |
| $ | 34,964 |
| A+ |
|
Tax backed |
| 13,664 |
| A |
| 19,315 |
| A+ |
| 32,980 |
| A+ |
| |||
Municipal utilities |
| 5,969 |
| A |
| 11,687 |
| A |
| 17,656 |
| A |
| |||
Transportation |
| 4,396 |
| A+ |
| 9,443 |
| A |
| 13,839 |
| A |
| |||
Healthcare |
| 5,800 |
| A |
| 5,690 |
| A+ |
| 11,490 |
| A |
| |||
Higher education |
| 2,671 |
| A |
| 3,731 |
| A+ |
| 6,402 |
| A+ |
| |||
Investor-owned utilities |
| 119 |
| A |
| 1,906 |
| BBB+ |
| 2,025 |
| BBB+ |
| |||
Housing |
| — |
| — |
| 1,988 |
| A+ |
| 1,988 |
| A+ |
| |||
Other public finance |
| 2,280 |
| A- |
| 3,541 |
| A+ |
| 5,821 |
| A |
| |||
Total U.S. public finance |
| $ | 45,548 |
| A |
| $ | 81,616 |
| A+ |
| $ | 127,164 |
| A+ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
U.S. structured finance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Pooled corporate obligations |
| $ | 32,343 |
| AA+ |
| $ | 1,331 |
| AA+ |
| $ | 33,674 |
| AA+ |
|
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity |
| 16,871 |
| BBB+ |
| 977 |
| BB |
| 17,847 |
| BBB+ |
| |||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities |
| 5,648 |
| AAA |
| 206 |
| A- |
| 5,855 |
| AAA |
| |||
Commercial receivables |
| 2,277 |
| A+ |
| 2,768 |
| A- |
| 5,044 |
| A |
| |||
Consumer receivables |
| 2,641 |
| AA+ |
| 2,031 |
| A- |
| 4,672 |
| AA- |
| |||
Structured credit |
| 2,623 |
| A+ |
| 347 |
| BBB- |
| 2,970 |
| A |
| |||
Insurance securitizations |
| 1,245 |
| AA- |
| 348 |
| A+ |
| 1,593 |
| AA- |
| |||
Other structured finance |
| 49 |
| AA- |
| 414 |
| BBB+ |
| 462 |
| A- |
| |||
Total U.S. structured finance |
| $ | 63,695 |
| AA- |
| $ | 8,421 |
| A- |
| $ | 72,116 |
| AA- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
International |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure |
| $ | 5,224 |
| AA+ |
| $ | 3,572 |
| BBB+ |
| $ | 8,796 |
| A+ |
|
Pooled corporate obligations |
| 7,321 |
| AA+ |
| 861 |
| AAA |
| 8,182 |
| AA+ |
| |||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity |
| 7,705 |
| AAA |
| 98 |
| AA |
| 7,803 |
| AAA |
| |||
Regulated utilities |
| 1,803 |
| A |
| 3,980 |
| BBB+ |
| 5,783 |
| A- |
| |||
Public finance |
| 605 |
| AA |
| 1,102 |
| A |
| 1,707 |
| A+ |
| |||
Commercial receivables |
| 860 |
| A- |
| 790 |
| A- |
| 1,649 |
| A- |
| |||
Future flow |
| 861 |
| BBB |
| 325 |
| BBB |
| 1,186 |
| BBB |
| |||
Insurance securitizations |
| 923 |
| CCC |
| 29 |
| A |
| 952 |
| CCC+ |
| |||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities |
| 408 |
| AAA |
| 283 |
| A- |
| 691 |
| AA |
| |||
Structured credit |
| — |
| — |
| 421 |
| A- |
| 421 |
| A- |
| |||
Consumer receivables |
| — |
| — |
| 100 |
| AAA |
| 100 |
| AAA |
| |||
Other international structured finance |
| 617 |
| AAA |
| 9 |
| A |
| 626 |
| AAA |
| |||
Total international |
| $ | 26,327 |
| AA |
| $ | 11,568 |
| A- |
| $ | 37,896 |
| AA- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Total net par outstanding |
| $ | 135,570 |
| AA- |
| $ | 101,606 |
| A |
| $ | 237,176 |
| A+ |
|
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
14
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 5)
(dollars in millions)
Historical Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type
|
| As of March 31, |
| As of December 31, |
| |||||||||||
|
| 2009 |
| 2008 |
| 2007 |
| |||||||||
Sector: |
| Net Par |
| Avg. |
| Net Par |
| Avg. |
| Net Par |
| Avg. |
| |||
U.S. public finance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
General obligation |
| $ | 34,964 |
| A+ |
| $ | 27,047 |
| A+ |
| $ | 20,291 |
| A+ |
|
Tax backed |
| 32,980 |
| A+ |
| 25,862 |
| A+ |
| 17,799 |
| A+ |
| |||
Municipal utilities |
| 17,656 |
| A |
| 15,604 |
| A |
| 11,672 |
| A+ |
| |||
Transportation |
| 13,839 |
| A |
| 12,647 |
| A |
| 9,984 |
| A |
| |||
Healthcare |
| 11,490 |
| A |
| 11,678 |
| A |
| 10,372 |
| A |
| |||
Higher education |
| 6,402 |
| A+ |
| 5,330 |
| A+ |
| 3,651 |
| A+ |
| |||
Investor-owned utilities |
| 2,025 |
| BBB+ |
| 2,156 |
| BBB+ |
| 2,314 |
| BBB+ |
| |||
Housing |
| 1,988 |
| A+ |
| 1,981 |
| A+ |
| 2,041 |
| A+ |
| |||
Other public finance |
| 5,821 |
| A |
| 5,015 |
| A |
| 3,790 |
| A+ |
| |||
Total U.S. public finance |
| $ | 127,164 |
| A+ |
| $ | 107,322 |
| A+ |
| $ | 81,914 |
| A+ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
U.S. structured finance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Pooled corporate obligations |
| $ | 33,674 |
| AA+ |
| $ | 34,680 |
| AAA |
| $ | 33,813 |
| AAA |
|
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity |
| 17,847 |
| BBB+ |
| 18,393 |
| A |
| 18,248 |
| AA |
| |||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities |
| 5,855 |
| AAA |
| 5,876 |
| AAA |
| 6,002 |
| AA+ |
| |||
Commercial receivables |
| 5,044 |
| A |
| 4,945 |
| A |
| 5,246 |
| A+ |
| |||
Consumer receivables |
| 4,672 |
| AA- |
| 5,158 |
| AA |
| 6,589 |
| AA |
| |||
Structured credit |
| 2,970 |
| A |
| 3,274 |
| A |
| 1,572 |
| A- |
| |||
Insurance securitizations |
| 1,593 |
| AA- |
| 1,593 |
| AA- |
| 1,158 |
| AA- |
| |||
Other structured finance |
| 462 |
| A- |
| 454 |
| A- |
| 1,191 |
| AA |
| |||
Total U.S. structured finance |
| $ | 72,116 |
| AA- |
| $ | 74,373 |
| AA |
| $ | 73,820 |
| AA+ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
International |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure |
| $ | 8,796 |
| A+ |
| $ | 9,306 |
| AA- |
| $ | 11,561 |
| AA- |
|
Pooled corporate obligations |
| 8,182 |
| AA+ |
| 8,383 |
| AAA |
| 8,459 |
| AAA |
| |||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity |
| 7,803 |
| AAA |
| 8,249 |
| AAA |
| 7,329 |
| AAA |
| |||
Regulated utilities |
| 5,783 |
| A- |
| 7,515 |
| A- |
| 8,337 |
| A- |
| |||
Public finance |
| 1,707 |
| A+ |
| 1,680 |
| A |
| 1,996 |
| A+ |
| |||
Commercial receivables |
| 1,649 |
| A- |
| 1,713 |
| A- |
| 1,913 |
| A- |
| |||
Future flow |
| 1,186 |
| BBB |
| 1,240 |
| BBB |
| 1,113 |
| BBB+ |
| |||
Insurance securitizations |
| 952 |
| CCC+ |
| 954 |
| CCC |
| 857 |
| BBB- |
| |||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities |
| 691 |
| AA |
| 795 |
| AA- |
| 1,240 |
| AA+ |
| |||
Structured credit |
| 421 |
| A- |
| 437 |
| A- |
| 592 |
| A- |
| |||
Consumer receivables |
| 100 |
| AAA |
| 109 |
| AAA |
| 357 |
| AA+ |
| |||
Other international structured finance |
| 626 |
| AAA |
| 646 |
| AAA |
| 794 |
| AA+ |
| |||
Total international |
| $ | 37,896 |
| AA- |
| $ | 41,027 |
| AA- |
| $ | 44,546 |
| AA- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Total exposures |
| $ | 237,176 |
| A+ |
| $ | 222,722 |
| AA- |
| $ | 200,279 |
| AA- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Mortgage guaranty risk in force |
| $ | 381 |
| NA |
| $ | 400 |
| NA |
| $ | 1,116 |
| NA |
|
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
NA = Not Applicable
15
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 5)
(dollars in millions)
Gross Par Written by Asset Type
|
| Financial |
| Avg. |
| Financial |
| Avg. |
| Consolidated |
| Avg. |
| |||
Sector: |
| 1Q-09 |
| 1Q-09 |
| 1Q-09 |
| |||||||||
U.S. public finance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
General obligation |
| $ | 2,192 |
| A+ |
| $ | 6,026 |
| A |
| $ | 8,219 |
| A |
|
Tax backed |
| 3,516 |
| A+ |
| 3,785 |
| A |
| 7,300 |
| A |
| |||
Municipal utilities |
| 884 |
| A |
| 1,319 |
| A |
| 2,203 |
| A |
| |||
Transportation |
| 548 |
| A |
| 800 |
| A |
| 1,347 |
| A |
| |||
Higher education |
| 361 |
| A |
| 819 |
| A |
| 1,180 |
| A |
| |||
Healthcare |
| 357 |
| A |
| 196 |
| AA- |
| 554 |
| A+ |
| |||
Housing |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Investor-owned utilities |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Other public finance |
| 341 |
| BBB- |
| 484 |
| AA- |
| 825 |
| A |
| |||
Total U.S. public finance |
| $ | 8,200 |
| A |
| $ | 13,429 |
| A |
| $ | 21,629 |
| A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
U.S. structured finance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Commercial receivables |
| $ | 71 |
| A |
| $ | — |
| — |
| $ | 71 |
| A |
|
Consumer receivables |
| — |
| — |
| 21 |
| BBB |
| 21 |
| BBB |
| |||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Insurance securitization |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Pooled corporate obligations |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Structured credit |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Other structured finance |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Total U.S. structured finance |
| $ | 71 |
| A |
| $ | 21 |
| BBB |
| $ | 92 |
| A- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
International |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Regulated utilities |
| $ | 25 |
| A |
| $ | 212 |
| A- |
| $ | 238 |
| A- |
|
Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure |
| 64 |
| AA |
| 123 |
| BBB- |
| 188 |
| A- |
| |||
Public finance |
| — |
| — |
| 130 |
| A+ |
| 130 |
| A+ |
| |||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Commercial receivables |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Consumer receivables |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Future flow |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Insurance securitizations |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Pooled corporate obligations |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Structured credit |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Other international structured finance |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||
Total international |
| $ | 90 |
| AA- |
| $ | 466 |
| A- |
| $ | 556 |
| A- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Total gross par written |
| $ | 8,361 |
| A |
| $ | 13,916 |
| A |
| $ | 22,276 |
| A |
|
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
16
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (4 of 5)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio
|
| As of March 31, 2009 |
|
|
|
|
| |||||||||||||
|
| Financial Guaranty |
| Financial Guaranty |
| Consolidated |
|
|
|
|
| |||||||||
Ratings (1): |
| Net Par |
| % |
| Net Par |
| % |
| Net Par |
| % |
|
|
|
|
| |||
Super senior |
| $ | 29,643 |
| 21.9 | % | $ | 1 |
| 0.0 | % | $ | 29,644 |
| 12.5 | % |
|
|
|
|
AAA |
| 28,583 |
| 21.1 | % | 4,467 |
| 4.4 | % | 33,051 |
| 13.9 | % |
|
|
|
| |||
AA |
| 15,457 |
| 11.4 | % | 35,049 |
| 34.5 | % | 50,506 |
| 21.3 | % |
|
|
|
| |||
A |
| 38,317 |
| 28.3 | % | 41,898 |
| 41.2 | % | 80,215 |
| 33.8 | % |
|
|
|
| |||
BBB |
| 16,095 |
| 11.9 | % | 18,275 |
| 18.0 | % | 34,370 |
| 14.5 | % |
|
|
|
| |||
Below investment grade |
| 7,475 |
| 5.5 | % | 1,916 |
| 1.9 | % | 9,391 |
| 4.0 | % |
|
|
|
| |||
Total exposures |
| $ | 135,570 |
| 100.0 | % | $ | 101,606 |
| 100.0 | % | $ | 237,176 |
| 100.0 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
| As of December 31, 2008 |
|
|
|
|
| |||||||||||||
|
| Financial Guaranty |
| Financial Guaranty |
| Consolidated |
|
|
|
|
| |||||||||
Ratings (1): |
| Net Par |
| % |
| Net Par |
| % |
| Net Par |
| % |
|
|
|
|
| |||
Super senior |
| $ | 32,351 |
| 24.5 | % | $ | 1 |
| 0.0 | % | $ | 32,352 |
| 14.5 | % |
|
|
|
|
AAA |
| 35,542 |
| 26.9 | % | 5,191 |
| 5.7 | % | 40,733 |
| 18.3 | % |
|
|
|
| |||
AA |
| 14,699 |
| 11.1 | % | 32,986 |
| 36.4 | % | 47,685 |
| 21.4 | % |
|
|
|
| |||
A |
| 31,912 |
| 24.2 | % | 34,078 |
| 37.6 | % | 65,991 |
| 29.6 | % |
|
|
|
| |||
BBB |
| 12,579 |
| 9.5 | % | 16,782 |
| 18.5 | % | 29,361 |
| 13.2 | % |
|
|
|
| |||
Below investment grade |
| 4,943 |
| 3.7 | % | 1,657 |
| 1.8 | % | 6,600 |
| 3.0 | % |
|
|
|
| |||
Total exposures |
| $ | 132,026 |
| 100.0 | % | $ | 90,696 |
| 100.0 | % | $ | 222,722 |
| 100.0 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
| As of March 31, 2009 |
| ||||||||||||||||||
|
| U.S. Public |
| U.S. Structured |
| International |
| Consolidated |
| ||||||||||||
Ratings (1): |
| Net Par |
| % |
| Net Par |
| % |
| Net Par |
| % |
| Net Par |
| % |
| ||||
Super senior |
| $ | — |
| — |
| $ | 19,064 |
| 26.4 | % | $ | 10,580 |
| 27.9 | % | $ | 29,644 |
| 12.5 | % |
AAA |
| 2,145 |
| 1.7 | % | 21,243 |
| 29.5 | % | 9,663 |
| 25.5 | % | 33,051 |
| 13.9 | % | ||||
AA |
| 41,828 |
| 32.9 | % | 6,593 |
| 9.1 | % | 2,086 |
| 5.5 | % | 50,506 |
| 21.3 | % | ||||
A |
| 65,865 |
| 51.8 | % | 8,109 |
| 11.2 | % | 6,240 |
| 16.5 | % | 80,215 |
| 33.8 | % | ||||
BBB |
| 15,859 |
| 12.5 | % | 10,182 |
| 14.1 | % | 8,329 |
| 22.0 | % | 34,370 |
| 14.5 | % | ||||
Below investment grade |
| 1,467 |
| 1.2 | % | 6,926 |
| 9.6 | % | 998 |
| 2.6 | % | 9,391 |
| 4.0 | % | ||||
Total exposures |
| $ | 127,164 |
| 100.0 | % | $ | 72,116 |
| 100.0 | % | $ | 37,896 |
| 100.0 | % | $ | 237,176 |
| 100.0 | % |
|
| As of December 31, 2008 |
| ||||||||||||||||||
|
| U.S. Public |
| U.S. Structured |
| International |
| Consolidated |
| ||||||||||||
Ratings (1): |
| Net Par |
| % |
| Net Par |
| % |
| Net Par |
| % |
| Net Par |
| % |
| ||||
Super senior |
| $ | — |
| — |
| $ | 21,302 |
| 28.6 | % | $ | 11,050 |
| 26.9 | % | $ | 32,352 |
| 14.5 | % |
AAA |
| 2,120 |
| 2.0 | % | 27,115 |
| 36.5 | % | 11,498 |
| 28.0 | % | 40,733 |
| 18.3 | % | ||||
AA |
| 38,028 |
| 35.4 | % | 7,687 |
| 10.3 | % | 1,970 |
| 4.8 | % | 47,685 |
| 21.4 | % | ||||
A |
| 53,086 |
| 49.5 | % | 7,058 |
| 9.5 | % | 5,846 |
| 14.2 | % | 65,991 |
| 29.6 | % | ||||
BBB |
| 13,020 |
| 12.1 | % | 6,692 |
| 9.0 | % | 9,649 |
| 23.5 | % | 29,361 |
| 13.2 | % | ||||
Below investment grade |
| 1,067 |
| 1.0 | % | 4,519 |
| 6.1 | % | 1,014 |
| 2.5 | % | 6,600 |
| 3.0 | % | ||||
Total exposures |
| $ | 107,322 |
| 100.0 | % | $ | 74,373 |
| 100.0 | % | $ | 41,027 |
| 100.0 | % | $ | 222,722 |
| 100.0 | % |
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
17
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (5 of 5)
(dollars in millions)
Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio as of March 31, 2009
|
| Net Par |
|
|
| |
U.S.: |
| Outstanding |
| % of total |
| |
California |
| $ | 17,713 |
| 7.5 | % |
New York |
| 12,057 |
| 5.1 | % | |
Florida |
| 9,657 |
| 4.1 | % | |
Texas |
| 8,598 |
| 3.6 | % | |
Illinois |
| 7,130 |
| 3.0 | % | |
Pennsylvania |
| 6,720 |
| 2.8 | % | |
New Jersey |
| 4,959 |
| 2.1 | % | |
Massachusetts |
| 4,741 |
| 2.0 | % | |
Puerto Rico |
| 3,829 |
| 1.6 | % | |
Michigan |
| 3,633 |
| 1.5 | % | |
Other states |
| 48,126 |
| 20.3 | % | |
Structured finance (multiple states) |
| 72,116 |
| 30.4 | % | |
Total U.S. |
| $ | 199,280 |
| 84.0 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
International: |
|
|
|
|
| |
United Kingdom |
| $ | 20,870 |
| 8.8 | % |
Germany |
| 3,080 |
| 1.3 | % | |
Australia |
| 2,628 |
| 1.1 | % | |
Ireland |
| 925 |
| 0.4 | % | |
Turkey |
| 769 |
| 0.3 | % | |
Other |
| 9,623 |
| 4.1 | % | |
Total International |
| $ | 37,896 |
| 16.0 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Total exposures |
| $ | 237,176 |
| 100.0 | % |
18
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Ratings as of March 31, 2009
Ratings (1): |
| Net Par Outstanding |
| % of total |
| Avg. Initial |
| Avg. Current Enhancement (2) |
|
|
| |
AAA |
| $ | 29,678 |
| 74.8 | % | 35.6 | % | 30.3 | % |
|
|
AA |
| 4,131 |
| 10.4 | % | 37.2 | % | 29.5 | % |
|
| |
A |
| 2,327 |
| 5.9 | % | 44.0 | % | 41.4 | % |
|
| |
BBB |
| 2,732 |
| 6.9 | % | 47.0 | % | 41.0 | % |
|
| |
Below investment grade |
| 796 |
| 2.0 | % | 41.4 | % | 28.7 | % |
|
| |
Total exposures |
| $ | 39,664 |
| 100.0 | % | 37.2 | % | 31.6 | % |
|
|
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Year Insured as of March 31, 2009
Year insured: |
| Net Par Outstanding |
| % of total |
| Avg. Initial |
| Avg. Current Enhancement (2) |
|
|
| |
2004 and prior |
| $ | 1,525 |
| 3.8 | % | 30.6 | % | 28.5 | % |
|
|
2005 |
| 7,412 |
| 18.7 | % | 35.0 | % | 30.2 | % |
|
| |
2006 |
| 12,720 |
| 32.1 | % | 37.6 | % | 29.7 | % |
|
| |
2007 |
| 15,484 |
| 39.0 | % | 38.9 | % | 33.6 | % |
|
| |
2008 |
| 2,523 |
| 6.4 | % | 34.7 | % | 34.0 | % |
|
| |
2009 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
|
|
| |
|
| $ | 39,664 |
| 100.0 | % | 37.2 | % | 31.6 | % |
|
|
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class as of March 31, 2009
Asset class: |
| Net Par |
| % of total |
| Avg. Initial |
| Avg. Current |
| Avg. |
| |
High yield corporates |
| $ | 25,670 |
| 64.7 | % | 34.9 | % | 28.9 | % | AAA |
|
Trust preferred - banks and insurance |
| 3,637 |
| 9.2 | % | 47.0 | % | 41.9 | % | A- |
| |
Trust preferred - US mortgage and REITs |
| 2,455 |
| 6.2 | % | 50.1 | % | 43.6 | % | A- |
| |
Trust preferred - European mortgage and REITs |
| 970 |
| 2.4 | % | 36.8 | % | 36.7 | % | A |
| |
Market value CDOs of corporates |
| 3,813 |
| 9.6 | % | 37.8 | % | 28.6 | % | AAA |
| |
Investment grade corporates |
| 2,274 |
| 5.7 | % | 28.7 | % | 29.9 | % | AAA |
| |
Commercial real estate |
| 771 |
| 1.9 | % | 49.1 | % | 47.9 | % | AAA |
| |
CDO of CDOs (corporate) (3) |
| 74 |
| 0.2 | % | 1.7 | % | 5.4 | % | AAA |
| |
|
| $ | 39,664 |
| 100.0 | % | 37.2 | % | 31.6 | % | AA+ |
|
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
(2) “Average Credit Enhancement” is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinate tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured’s exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.
(3) Consists of one transaction whereby Assured’s exposure is principal-protected by a collateral account currently containing $79 million in assets and representing 106% of current net par. Funds in the collateral account are permitted to be invested in cash, government securities and AAA ABS (other than MBS).
19
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (“RMBS”) Profile (1 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating(1) and by Segment as of March 31, 2009
|
| Direct |
|
|
| Reinsurance |
|
|
| Total |
|
|
| |||
|
| Net Par |
|
|
| Net Par |
|
|
| Net Par |
|
|
| |||
Ratings(1): |
| Outstanding |
| % |
| Outstanding |
| % |
| Outstanding |
| % |
| |||
Super senior |
| $ | 4,430 |
| 26.3 | % | $ | — |
| — |
| $ | 4,430 |
| 24.8 | % |
AAA |
| 932 |
| 5.5 | % | 151 |
| 15.5 | % | 1,083 |
| 6.1 | % | |||
AA |
| 991 |
| 5.9 | % | 100 |
| 10.2 | % | 1,091 |
| 6.1 | % | |||
A |
| 2,325 |
| 13.8 | % | 111 |
| 11.4 | % | 2,437 |
| 13.7 | % | |||
BBB |
| 2,601 |
| 15.4 | % | 127 |
| 13.0 | % | 2,728 |
| 15.3 | % | |||
Below investment grade |
| 5,591 |
| 33.1 | % | 488 |
| 49.9 | % | 6,079 |
| 34.1 | % | |||
|
| $ | 16,871 |
| 100.0 | % | $ | 977 |
| 100.0 | % | $ | 17,847 |
| 100.0 | % |
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by rating, December 31, 2006 to March 31, 2009
Ratings(1): |
| 12/31/2006 |
| 12/31/2007 |
| 12/31/2008 |
| 3/31/2009 |
|
Super senior |
| 41.4 | % | 35.4 | % | 34.7 | % | 24.8 | % |
AAA |
| 23.1 | % | 33.9 | % | 9.1 | % | 6.1 | % |
AA |
| 0.3 | % | 5.0 | % | 8.5 | % | 6.1 | % |
A |
| 9.2 | % | 6.4 | % | 13.4 | % | 13.7 | % |
BBB |
| 25.1 | % | 9.1 | % | 10.4 | % | 15.3 | % |
Below investment grade |
| 0.9 | % | 10.1 | % | 24.0 | % | 34.1 | % |
|
| 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating(1) and Type of Exposure as of March 31, 2009
Ratings(1): |
| Prime First |
| Prime |
| Prime |
| Alt-A First |
| Alt-A Option |
| Subprime |
| Total Net Par |
| |||||||
Super senior |
| $ | — |
| $ | 46 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 1,493 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 2,890 |
| $ | 4,430 |
|
AAA |
| 12 |
| 57 |
| 10 |
| 710 |
| 9 |
| 286 |
| 1,083 |
| |||||||
AA |
| 74 |
| — |
| 12 |
| 726 |
| 9 |
| 269 |
| 1,091 |
| |||||||
A |
| 107 |
| 3 |
| 8 |
| 883 |
| 202 |
| 1,234 |
| 2,437 |
| |||||||
BBB |
| 717 |
| — |
| 109 |
| 564 |
| 85 |
| 1,253 |
| 2,728 |
| |||||||
Below investment grade |
| 655 |
| 309 |
| 1,496 |
| 1,756 |
| 1,250 |
| 612 |
| 6,079 |
| |||||||
Total exposures |
| $ | 1,566 |
| $ | 415 |
| $ | 1,636 |
| $ | 6,132 |
| $ | 1,554 |
| $ | 6,543 |
| $ | 17,847 |
|
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured and Type of Exposure as of March 31, 2009
Year Insured: |
| Prime First |
| Prime |
| Prime |
| Alt-A First |
| Alt-A Option |
| Subprime |
| Total Net Par |
| |||||||
2004 and prior |
| $ | 117 |
| $ | 3 |
| $ | 147 |
| $ | 83 |
| $ | 69 |
| $ | 492 |
| $ | 911 |
|
2005 |
| 196 |
| — |
| 696 |
| 382 |
| 51 |
| 83 |
| 1,408 |
| |||||||
2006 |
| 337 |
| 5 |
| 130 |
| 58 |
| 76 |
| 4,423 |
| 5,030 |
| |||||||
2007 |
| 916 |
| 408 |
| 664 |
| 3,151 |
| 1,210 |
| 1,517 |
| 7,864 |
| |||||||
2008 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 2,459 |
| 148 |
| 27 |
| 2,634 |
| |||||||
2009 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
Total exposures |
| $ | 1,566 |
| $ | 415 |
| $ | 1,636 |
| $ | 6,132 |
| $ | 1,554 |
| $ | 6,543 |
| $ | 17,847 |
|
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
20
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of March 31, 2009
|
|
| Super |
| AAA |
| AA |
| A |
| BBB |
| BIG |
|
|
| |||||||
| Year insured: |
| Senior |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Total |
| |||||||
| 2004 and prior |
| $ | — |
| $ | 187 |
| $ | 136 |
| $ | 182 |
| $ | 153 |
| $ | 252 |
| $ | 911 |
|
| 2005 |
| — |
| 55 |
| 155 |
| 181 |
| 171 |
| 845 |
| 1,408 |
| |||||||
| 2006 |
| 2,890 |
| 178 |
| 233 |
| 531 |
| 893 |
| 305 |
| 5,030 |
| |||||||
| 2007 |
| 46 |
| 67 |
| 566 |
| 1,010 |
| 1,511 |
| 4,664 |
| 7,864 |
| |||||||
| 2008 |
| 1,493 |
| 597 |
| — |
| 531 |
| — |
| 13 |
| 2,634 |
| |||||||
| 2009 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
|
|
| $ | 4,430 |
| $ | 1,083 |
| $ | 1,091 |
| $ | 2,437 |
| $ | 2,728 |
| $ | 6,079 |
| $ | 17,847 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
| % of total |
| 24.8 | % | 6.1 | % | 6.1 | % | 13.7 | % | 15.3 | % | 34.1 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of U.S. Prime HELOC RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of March 31, 2009
|
|
| Super |
| AAA |
| AA |
| A |
| BBB |
| BIG |
|
|
| |||||||
| Year insured: |
| Senior |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Total |
| |||||||
| 2004 and prior |
| $ | — |
| $ | 0 |
| $ | 11 |
| $ | 5 |
| $ | 91 |
| $ | 39 |
| $ | 147 |
|
| 2005 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 2 |
| 14 |
| 680 |
| 696 |
| |||||||
| 2006 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 3 |
| 127 |
| 130 |
| |||||||
| 2007 |
| — |
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 651 |
| 664 |
| |||||||
| 2008 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
| 2009 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
|
|
| $ | — |
| $ | 10 |
| $ | 12 |
| $ | 8 |
| $ | 109 |
| $ | 1,496 |
| $ | 1,636 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
| % of total |
| 0.0 | % | 0.6 | % | 0.7 | % | 0.5 | % | 6.7 | % | 91.5 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of U.S. Closed End Seconds RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of March 31, 2009
|
|
| Super |
| AAA |
| AA |
| A |
| BBB |
| BIG |
|
|
| |||||||
| Year insured: |
| Senior |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Total |
| |||||||
| 2004 and prior |
| $ | — |
| $ | 0 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 2 |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
| $ | 3 |
|
| 2005 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
| 2006 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 5 |
| 5 |
| |||||||
| 2007 |
| 46 |
| 57 |
| — |
| 1 |
| — |
| 304 |
| 408 |
| |||||||
| 2008 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
| 2009 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
|
|
| $ | 46 |
| $ | 57 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 3 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 309 |
| $ | 415 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
| % of total |
| 11.2 | % | 13.8 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.7 | % | 0.0 | % | 74.3 | % | 100.0 | % |
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
21
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (3 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. Alt-A RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of March 31, 2009
|
|
| Super |
| AAA |
| AA |
| A |
| BBB |
| BIG |
|
|
| |||||||
| Year insured: |
| Senior |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Total |
| |||||||
| 2004 and prior |
| $ | — |
| $ | 14 |
| $ | 7 |
| $ | 41 |
| $ | 21 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 83 |
|
| 2005 |
| — |
| 46 |
| 155 |
| 26 |
| 39 |
| 115 |
| 382 |
| |||||||
| 2006 |
| — |
| 52 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 6 |
| 58 |
| |||||||
| 2007 |
| — |
| — |
| 565 |
| 446 |
| 504 |
| 1,635 |
| 3,151 |
| |||||||
| 2008 |
| 1,493 |
| 597 |
| — |
| 369 |
| — |
| — |
| 2,459 |
| |||||||
| 2009 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
|
|
| $ | 1,493 |
| $ | 710 |
| $ | 726 |
| $ | 883 |
| $ | 564 |
| $ | 1,756 |
| $ | 6,132 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
| % of total |
| 24.4 | % | 11.6 | % | 11.8 | % | 14.4 | % | 9.2 | % | 28.6 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of U.S. Alt-A Option ARM RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of March 31, 2009
|
|
| Super |
| AAA |
| AA |
| A |
| BBB |
| BIG |
|
|
| |||||||
| Year insured: |
| Senior |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Total |
| |||||||
| 2004 and prior |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
| $ | 52 |
| $ | 17 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 69 |
|
| 2005 |
| — |
| 8 |
| — |
| — |
| 1 |
| 42 |
| 51 |
| |||||||
| 2006 |
| — |
| 1 |
| 9 |
| — |
| — |
| 66 |
| 76 |
| |||||||
| 2007 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 2 |
| 67 |
| 1,141 |
| 1,210 |
| |||||||
| 2008 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 148 |
| — |
| — |
| 148 |
| |||||||
| 2009 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
|
|
| $ | — |
| $ | 9 |
| $ | 9 |
| $ | 202 |
| $ | 85 |
| $ | 1,250 |
| $ | 1,554 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
| % of total |
| 0.0 | % | 0.6 | % | 0.6 | % | 13.0 | % | 5.4 | % | 80.4 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of U.S. Subprime RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of March 31, 2009
|
|
| Super |
| AAA |
| AA |
| A |
| BBB |
| BIG |
|
|
| |||||||
| Year insured: |
| Senior |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Total |
| |||||||
| 2004 and prior |
| $ | — |
| $ | 160 |
| $ | 44 |
| $ | 50 |
| $ | 24 |
| $ | 214 |
| $ | 492 |
|
| 2005 |
| — |
| 1 |
| — |
| 77 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 83 |
| |||||||
| 2006 |
| 2,890 |
| 124 |
| 224 |
| 531 |
| 554 |
| 100 |
| 4,423 |
| |||||||
| 2007 |
| — |
| — |
| 1 |
| 561 |
| 672 |
| 284 |
| 1,517 |
| |||||||
| 2008 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 14 |
| — |
| 13 |
| 27 |
| |||||||
| 2009 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
|
|
| $ | 2,890 |
| $ | 286 |
| $ | 269 |
| $ | 1,234 |
| $ | 1,253 |
| $ | 612 |
| $ | 6,543 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
| % of total |
| 44.2 | % | 4.4 | % | 4.1 | % | 18.9 | % | 19.1 | % | 9.4 | % | 100.0 | % |
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
22
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (1 of 4)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS by Rating(1) and Type of Exposure as of March 31, 2009
Ratings(1): |
| Prime First |
| Prime Closed |
| Prime HELOC |
| Alt-A First |
| Alt-A Option |
| Subprime |
| Total Net Par |
| |||||||
Super senior |
| $ | — |
| $ | 46 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 1,493 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 2,890 |
| $ | 4,430 |
|
AAA |
| — |
| 55 |
| — |
| 654 |
| — |
| 224 |
| 932 |
| |||||||
AA |
| — |
| — |
| 6 |
| 724 |
| — |
| 261 |
| 991 |
| |||||||
A |
| 75 |
| — |
| — |
| 856 |
| 201 |
| 1,194 |
| 2,325 |
| |||||||
BBB |
| 716 |
| — |
| 15 |
| 563 |
| 84 |
| 1,222 |
| 2,601 |
| |||||||
Below investment grade |
| 649 |
| 304 |
| 1,146 |
| 1,728 |
| 1,233 |
| 531 |
| 5,591 |
| |||||||
Total exposures |
| $ | 1,441 |
| $ | 405 |
| $ | 1,168 |
| $ | 6,018 |
| $ | 1,518 |
| $ | 6,322 |
| $ | 16,871 |
|
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS by Year Insured as of March 31, 2009
Year insured: |
| Prime First |
| Prime Closed |
| Prime HELOC |
| Alt-A First |
| Alt-A Option |
| Subprime |
| Total Net Par |
| ||||||||||||||
2004 and prior |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
| $ | 21 |
| $ | 49 |
| $ | 68 |
| $ | 344 |
| $ | 483 |
| |||||||
2005 |
| 189 |
| — |
| 572 |
| 376 |
| 40 |
| 77 |
| 1,254 |
| ||||||||||||||
2006 |
| 336 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 56 |
| 4,403 |
| 4,794 |
| ||||||||||||||
2007 |
| 916 |
| 405 |
| 575 |
| 3,134 |
| 1,206 |
| 1,498 |
| 7,732 |
| ||||||||||||||
2008 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 2,459 |
| 148 |
| — |
| 2,607 |
| ||||||||||||||
2009 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| ||||||||||||||
|
| $ | 1,441 |
| $ | 405 |
| $ | 1,168 |
| $ | 6,018 |
| $ | 1,518 |
| $ | 6,322 |
| $ | 16,871 |
| |||||||
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS by Year Issued as of March 31, 2009
Year issued: |
| Prime First Lien |
| Prime Closed End Seconds |
| Prime HELOC |
| Alt-A First Lien |
| Alt-A Option ARMs |
| Subprime First Lien |
| Total Net Par Outstanding |
| |||||||
2004 and prior |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
| $ | 21 |
| $ | 49 |
| $ | 68 |
| $ | 344 |
| $ | 483 |
|
2005 |
| 189 |
| — |
| 572 |
| 376 |
| 40 |
| 3,580 |
| 4,757 |
| |||||||
2006 |
| 336 |
| — |
| — |
| 360 |
| 56 |
| 1,900 |
| 2,651 |
| |||||||
2007 |
| 916 |
| 405 |
| 575 |
| 5,233 |
| 1,354 |
| 498 |
| 8,980 |
| |||||||
2008 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
2009 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
|
| $ | 1,441 |
| $ | 405 |
| $ | 1,168 |
| $ | 6,018 |
| $ | 1,518 |
| $ | 6,322 |
| $ | 16,871 |
|
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
23
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 4)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Net Par Outstanding by Rating(1) and Year Issued as of March 31, 2009
|
|
| Super |
| AAA |
| AA |
| A |
| BBB |
| BIG |
|
|
| |||||||
| Year issued: |
| Senior |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Total |
| |||||||
| 2004 and prior |
| $ | — |
| $ | 111 |
| $ | 48 |
| $ | 96 |
| $ | 52 |
| $ | 176 |
| $ | 483 |
|
| 2005 |
| 1,990 |
| 170 |
| 379 |
| 710 |
| 706 |
| 801 |
| 4,757 |
| |||||||
| 2006 |
| 1,174 |
| — |
| — |
| 100 |
| 961 |
| 417 |
| 2,651 |
| |||||||
| 2007 |
| 1,266 |
| 651 |
| 565 |
| 1,419 |
| 882 |
| 4,197 |
| 8,980 |
| |||||||
| 2008 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
| 2009 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
|
|
| $ | 4,430 |
| $ | 932 |
| $ | 991 |
| $ | 2,325 |
| $ | 2,601 |
| $ | 5,591 |
| $ | 16,871 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
| % of total |
| 26.3 | % | 5.5 | % | 5.9 | % | 13.8 | % | 15.4 | % | 33.1 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Net Par Outstanding by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of March 31, 2009
|
|
| Super |
| AAA |
| AA |
| A |
| BBB |
| BIG |
|
|
| |||||||
| Year issued: |
| Senior |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Total |
| |||||||
| 2004 and prior |
| $ | — |
| $ | 111 |
| $ | 48 |
| $ | 96 |
| $ | 52 |
| $ | 176 |
| $ | 483 |
|
| 2005 |
| — |
| 46 |
| 155 |
| 179 |
| 153 |
| 721 |
| 1,254 |
| |||||||
| 2006 |
| 2,890 |
| 124 |
| 224 |
| 531 |
| 889 |
| 136 |
| 4,794 |
| |||||||
| 2007 |
| 46 |
| 55 |
| 565 |
| 1,002 |
| 1,507 |
| 4,558 |
| 7,732 |
| |||||||
| 2008 |
| 1,493 |
| 597 |
| — |
| 517 |
| — |
| — |
| 2,607 |
| |||||||
| 2009 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
|
|
| $ | 4,430 |
| $ | 932 |
| $ | 991 |
| $ | 2,325 |
| $ | 2,601 |
| $ | 5,591 |
| $ | 16,871 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
| % of total |
| 26.3 | % | 5.5 | % | 5.9 | % | 13.8 | % | 15.4 | % | 33.1 | % | 100.0 | % |
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
24
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (3 of 4)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Issued January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of March 31, 2009 (1)
U.S. Prime First Lien
Year issued: |
| Net Par Outstanding |
| Pool Factor(2) |
| Subordination (3) |
| Cumulative |
| 60+ Day |
| Number of |
| |
2005 |
| $ | 189 |
| 73.2 | % | 5.3 | % | 0.1 | % | 4.0 | % | 6 |
|
2006 |
| 336 |
| 68.2 | % | 5.9 | % | 0.1 | % | 3.0 | % | 2 |
| |
2007 |
| 916 |
| 83.8 | % | 10.3 | % | 0.3 | % | 4.2 | % | 2 |
| |
2008 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
2009 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
|
| $ | 1,441 |
| 78.8 | % | 8.6 | % | 0.2 | % | 3.9 | % | 10 |
|
U.S. Prime CES
Year issued: |
| Net Par Outstanding |
| Pool Factor(2) |
| Subordination (3) |
| Cumulative |
| 60+ Day |
| Number of |
| |
2005 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
2006 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
2007 |
| 405 |
| 61.2 | % | 21.5 | % | 30.5 | % | 21.1 | % | 5 |
| |
2008 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
2009 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
|
| $ | 405 |
| 61.2 | % | 21.5 | % | 30.5 | % | 21.1 | % | 5 |
|
U.S. Prime HELOC
Year issued: |
| Net Par Outstanding |
| Pool Factor(2) |
| Subordination (3) |
| Cumulative |
| 60+ Day |
| Number of |
| |
2005 |
| $ | 572 |
| 31.7 | % | 0.0 | % | 11.9 | % | 15.0 | % | 2 |
|
2006 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
2007 |
| 575 |
| 64.3 | % | 0.0 | % | 16.9 | % | 12.8 | % | 2 |
| |
2008 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N.A. |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
2009 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N.A. |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
|
| $ | 1,146 |
| 48.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 14.4 | % | 13.9 | % | 4 |
|
U.S. Alt-A First Lien
Year issued: |
| Net Par Outstanding |
| Pool Factor(2) |
| Subordination (3) |
| Cumulative |
| 60+ Day |
| Number of |
| |
2005 |
| $ | 376 |
| 59.8 | % | 11.7 | % | 1.0 | % | 10.6 | % | 13 |
|
2006 |
| 360 |
| 73.3 | % | 39.4 | % | 3.3 | % | 30.3 | % | 2 |
| |
2007 |
| 5,233 |
| 77.8 | % | 20.5 | % | 1.6 | % | 24.0 | % | 11 |
| |
2008 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
2009 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
|
| $ | 5,969 |
| 76.4 | % | 21.1 | % | 1.7 | % | 23.5 | % | 26 |
|
(1) For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of March 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on March 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
(2) Pool factor is the percentage of net par outstanding divided by the original net par outstanding of the transactions at inception.
(3) Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
(4) Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
(5) 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
25
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (4 of 4)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Issued January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of March 31, 2009 (1)
U.S. Alt-A Option ARMs
Year issued: |
| Net Par |
| Pool Factor(2) |
| Subordination (3) |
| Cumulative |
| 60+ Day |
| Number of |
| |
2005 |
| $ | 40 |
| 32.3 | % | 27.6 | % | 1.0 | % | 22.4 | % | 1 |
|
2006 |
| 56 |
| 55.1 | % | 19.1 | % | 1.2 | % | 30.6 | % | 1 |
| |
2007 |
| 1,354 |
| 79.6 | % | 20.7 | % | 1.3 | % | 25.3 | % | 7 |
| |
2008 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
2009 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
|
| $ | 1,450 |
| 77.4 | % | 20.8 | % | 1.3 | % | 25.5 | % | 9 |
|
U.S. Subprime First Lien
Year issued: |
| Net Par |
| Pool Factor(2) |
| Subordination (3) |
| Cumulative |
| 60+ Day |
| Number of |
| |
2005 |
| $ | 3,580 |
| 31.5 | % | 63.6 | % | 7.1 | % | 41.9 | % | 42 |
|
2006 |
| 1,900 |
| 46.4 | % | 41.3 | % | 8.9 | % | 42.8 | % | 49 |
| |
2007 |
| 498 |
| 48.0 | % | 40.5 | % | 9.3 | % | 45.6 | % | 2 |
| |
2008 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
2009 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
|
| $ | 5,977 |
| 37.6 | % | 54.6 | % | 7.9 | % | 42.5 | % | 93 |
|
U.S. CMBS
Year issued: |
| Net Par |
| Pool Factor(2) |
| Subordination (3) |
| Cumulative |
| 60+ Day |
| Number of |
| |
2005 |
| $ | 3,429 |
| 96.5 | % | 28.9 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.2 | % | 158 |
|
2006 |
| 1,418 |
| 98.2 | % | 30.6 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.3 | % | 57 |
| |
2007 |
| 524 |
| 89.2 | % | 20.6 | % | 0.0 | % | 2.1 | % | 13 |
| |
2008 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
2009 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| |
|
| $ | 5,371 |
| 96.2 | % | 28.5 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.4 | % | 228 |
|
(1) For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of March 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on March 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
(2) Pool factor is the percentage of net par outstanding divided by the original net par outstanding of the transactions at inception.
(3) Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
(4) Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
(5) 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
26
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consumer Receivables Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Consolidated Consumer Receivables by Year Issued as of March 31, 2009
Year issued: |
| Credit Cards |
| Student Loans |
| Auto |
| Total Net Par |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
2004 and prior |
| $ | 48 |
| $ | 34 |
| $ | 8 |
| $ | 90 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2005 |
| 1,074 |
| 198 |
| 129 |
| 1,401 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
2006 |
| — |
| 815 |
| 292 |
| 1,107 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
2007 |
| 0 |
| 1,209 |
| 803 |
| 2,012 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
2008 |
| — |
| — |
| 163 |
| 163 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
2009 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
|
| $ | 1,122 |
| $ | 2,256 |
| $ | 1,394 |
| $ | 4,772 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Net Par Outstanding by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of March 31, 2009
|
| Super |
| AAA |
| AA |
| A |
| BBB |
| BIG |
|
|
| |||||||
Year insured: |
| Senior |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Total |
| |||||||
2004 and prior |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
|
2005 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 9 |
| — |
| 9 |
| |||||||
2006 |
| — |
| 419 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 419 |
| |||||||
2007 |
| — |
| 842 |
| 139 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 981 |
| |||||||
2008 |
| 1,000 |
| — |
| — |
| 231 |
| — |
| — |
| 1,231 |
| |||||||
2009 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
|
| $ | 1,000 |
| $ | 1,261 |
| $ | 139 |
| $ | 231 |
| $ | 9 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 2,641 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
% of total |
| 37.9 | % | 47.7 | % | 5.3 | % | 8.8 | % | 0.4 | % | 0.0 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Net Par Outstanding by Rating(1) and Year Issued as of March 31, 2009
|
| Super |
| AAA |
| AA |
| A |
| BBB |
| BIG |
|
|
| |||||||
Year issued: |
| Senior |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Rated |
| Total |
| |||||||
2004 and prior |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
| $ | — |
|
2005 |
| 1,000 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 9 |
| — |
| 1,009 |
| |||||||
2006 |
| — |
| 419 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| 419 |
| |||||||
2007 |
| — |
| 842 |
| 139 |
| 231 |
| — |
| — |
| 1,212 |
| |||||||
2008 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
2009 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| |||||||
|
| $ | 1,000 |
| $ | 1,261 |
| $ | 139 |
| $ | 231 |
| $ | 9 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 2,641 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
% of total |
| 37.9 | % | 47.7 | % | 5.3 | % | 8.8 | % | 0.4 | % | 0.0 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of Consumer Receivables by Asset Class as of March 31, 2009
Asset class: |
| Net Par |
| % |
| Average |
| Avg. Initial |
| Avg. Current |
|
|
|
|
| |
Student loans |
| $ | 1,261 |
| 47.7 | % | AAA |
| 7.2 | % | 8.5 | % |
|
|
|
|
Credit cards |
| 1,000 |
| 37.9 | % | AAA |
| 57.5 | % | 57.5 | % |
|
|
|
| |
Auto |
| 380 |
| 14.4 | % | A- |
| 11.2 | % | 27.3 | % |
|
|
|
| |
|
| $ | 2,641 |
| 100.0 | % | AA+ |
| 26.8 | % | 29.8 | % |
|
|
|
|
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
(2) “Average Credit Enhancement” is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinate tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured’s exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.
27
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct Credit Derivative Exposure Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Credit Derivative Exposure by Rating
|
| March 31, 2009 |
| December 31, 2008 |
| ||||||
|
| Net Par |
|
|
| Net Par |
|
|
| ||
Ratings (1): |
| Outstanding |
| % |
| Outstanding |
| % |
| ||
Super senior |
| $ | 28,597 |
| 40.8 | % | $ | 31,129 |
| 43.3 | % |
AAA |
| 23,943 |
| 34.2 | % | 29,574 |
| 41.1 | % | ||
AA |
| 3,956 |
| 5.6 | % | 4,032 |
| 5.6 | % | ||
A |
| 5,344 |
| 7.6 | % | 3,565 |
| 5.0 | % | ||
BBB |
| 3,957 |
| 5.7 | % | 1,734 |
| 2.4 | % | ||
Below investment grade |
| 4,230 |
| 6.0 | % | 1,931 |
| 2.7 | % | ||
Total exposures |
| $ | 70,027 |
| 100.0 | % | $ | 71,964 |
| 100.0 | % |
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Credit Derivative Exposure by Sector and Average Rating
|
| March 31, 2009 |
| December 31, 2008 |
| ||||||
Sector: |
| Net Par |
| Average |
| Net Par |
| Average |
| ||
U.S. public finance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
General obligation |
| $ | 416 |
| AAA |
| $ | 417 |
| AAA |
|
Healthcare |
| 100 |
| A |
| 100 |
| A |
| ||
Tax backed |
| 69 |
| BBB+ |
| 69 |
| BBB+ |
| ||
Investor-owned utilities |
| 39 |
| AAA |
| 39 |
| AAA |
| ||
Municipal utilities |
| 25 |
| AAA |
| 25 |
| AAA |
| ||
Total U.S. public finance |
| $ | 649 |
| AA |
| $ | 650 |
| AA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
U.S. structured finance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Pooled corporate obligations |
| $ | 28,592 |
| AA+ |
| $ | 29,349 |
| AAA |
|
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity |
| 12,489 |
| A |
| 12,768 |
| AA- |
| ||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities |
| 5,350 |
| AAA |
| 5,355 |
| AAA |
| ||
Commercial receivables |
| 1,548 |
| AA |
| 1,540 |
| AA |
| ||
Consumer receivables |
| 545 |
| AAA |
| 545 |
| AAA |
| ||
Structured credit |
| 344 |
| A+ |
| 351 |
| A+ |
| ||
Insurance securitizations |
| 100 |
| AA |
| 100 |
| AA |
| ||
Other structured finance |
| 49 |
| AA- |
| 49 |
| AA- |
| ||
Total U.S. structured finance |
| $ | 49,016 |
| AA |
| $ | 50,056 |
| AA+ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
International |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity |
| $ | 7,118 |
| AAA |
| $ | 7,488 |
| AAA |
|
Pooled corporate obligations |
| 6,809 |
| AA+ |
| 6,905 |
| AAA |
| ||
Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure |
| 4,613 |
| AA+ |
| 4,933 |
| AA+ |
| ||
Regulated utilities |
| 554 |
| AA- |
| 577 |
| AA |
| ||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities |
| 408 |
| AAA |
| 446 |
| AAA |
| ||
Future flow |
| 194 |
| BBB+ |
| 224 |
| BBB+ |
| ||
Insurance securitizations |
| 41 |
| B |
| 41 |
| B |
| ||
Public finance |
| 8 |
| AAA |
| 8 |
| AAA |
| ||
Other international structured finance |
| 617 |
| AAA |
| 636 |
| AAA |
| ||
Total international |
| $ | 20,362 |
| AA+ |
| $ | 21,258 |
| AAA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Total exposure |
| $ | 70,027 |
| AA |
| $ | 71,964 |
| AA+ |
|
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
28
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Default Swaps (“CDS”)
Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Default Swaps (“CDS”) as of March 31, 2009
Asset Type: |
| Net Par |
| Wtd. Avg. |
| 1Q-09 |
| ||
Financial Guaranty Direct |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Pooled corporates(1) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
High yield corporates |
| $ | 22.8 |
| AAA |
| $ | (77.4 | ) |
Trust preferred |
| 6.0 |
| A- |
| 75.3 |
| ||
Market value CDOs of corporates |
| 3.4 |
| AAA |
| (7.0 | ) | ||
Investment grade corporates |
| 2.3 |
| AAA |
| 1.6 |
| ||
Commercial real estate |
| 0.8 |
| AAA |
| (2.2 | ) | ||
CDO of CDOs (corporate) |
| 0.1 |
| AAA |
| (0.9 | ) | ||
Total pooled corporate obligations |
| 35.4 |
| AA+ |
| (10.5 | ) | ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
U.S. RMBS(2): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Prime first lien |
| 7.8 |
| AA+ |
| (48.7 | ) | ||
Alt-A first lien |
| 6.3 |
| A- |
| (44.1 | ) | ||
Subprime lien |
| 5.6 |
| AA- |
| 3.0 |
| ||
Other U.S. RMBS |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| ||
Total U.S. RMBS |
| 19.6 |
| AA- |
| (89.8 | ) | ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities(3) |
| 5.8 |
| AAA |
| (31.2 | ) | ||
Other(4) |
| 9.3 |
| AA- |
| 142.3 |
| ||
Total Financial Guaranty Direct |
| 70.0 |
| AA |
| 10.8 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Total Financial Guaranty Reinsurance |
| 3.3 |
| AA+ |
| 16.2 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Total Financial Guaranty Direct and Financial Guaranty Reinsurance |
| $ | 73.3 |
| AA |
| $ | 27.0 |
|
(1) Corporate collateralized loan obligations, market value CDOs, and trust preferred securities include all U.S. structured finance pooled corporate obligations and international pooled corporate obligations.
(2) Residential mortgage-backed securities is comprised of prime and subprime U.S. mortgage-backed and home equity securities and residential international mortgage-backed and home equity securities.
(3) Commercial mortgage-backed securities is comprised of commercial U.S. structured finance and commercial international mortgage backed securities.
(4) Other includes all other U.S. and international asset classes, such as commercial receivables and international infrastructure and pooled infrastructure securities.
29
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Non-Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 2)
As of March 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Loss and loss |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| adjustment expense |
| ||
|
| Weighted Average |
| Net Par |
| Average |
| reserves as of |
| ||
Non-Investment Grade Exposures by Asset Type: |
| Remaining Life |
| Outstanding |
| Rating (1) |
| March 31, 2009 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
U.S. public finance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Municipal utilities |
| 23.7 |
| $ | 528 |
| C |
| $ | 6.8 |
|
General obligation |
| 14.9 |
| 398 |
| BB- |
| 0.0 |
| ||
Tax backed |
| 14.3 |
| 85 |
| BB |
| 0.0 |
| ||
Healthcare |
| 14.5 |
| 71 |
| B+ |
| 14.0 |
| ||
Transportation |
| 15.2 |
| 22 |
| D |
| 3.2 |
| ||
Investor-owned utilities |
| 8.5 |
| 3 |
| BB+ |
| 0.0 |
| ||
Housing |
| 12.2 |
| 2 |
| B- |
| 0.3 |
| ||
Higher education |
| 12.2 |
| 1 |
| BB+ |
| — |
| ||
Other public finance |
| 32.5 |
| 357 |
| BB |
| 5.0 |
| ||
Total U.S. public finance |
| 22.3 |
| $ | 1,467 |
| B- |
| $ | 29.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
U.S. structured finance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity |
| 6.2 |
| $ | 6,079 |
| B- |
| $ | 138.9 |
|
Pooled corporate obligations |
| 22.1 |
| 807 |
| BB |
| 2.3 |
| ||
Consumer receivables |
| 2.4 |
| 7 |
| BB |
| 0.1 |
| ||
Commercial receivables |
| 1.3 |
| 0 |
| CCC |
| 0.0 |
| ||
Other structured finance |
| 7.5 |
| 32 |
| CCC- |
| 6.6 |
| ||
Total U.S. structured finance |
| 8.1 |
| $ | 6,926 |
| B- |
| $ | 147.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
International |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Insurance securitizations |
| 11.8 |
| $ | 923 |
| CCC |
| $ | 43.0 |
|
Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure |
| 12.4 |
| 75 |
| B- |
| 9.1 |
| ||
Total international |
| 11.9 |
| $ | 998 |
| CCC |
| $ | 52.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
Total non-investment grade exposures |
| 10.7 |
| $ | 9,391 |
| B- |
| $ | 229.3 |
|
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
30
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Non-Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 2)
As of March 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Non-Investment Grade Exposures Greater Than $50 Million as of March 31, 2009
|
| Weighted Average |
| Net Par |
| Internal |
| Current Credit |
| |
Name or Description |
| Remaining Life |
| Outstanding |
| Rating (1) |
| Enhancement |
| |
Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2 |
| 7.8 |
| $ | 1,002 |
| B |
| 9.8 | % |
MortgageIt Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2 |
| 4.6 |
| 649 |
| BB |
| 11.2 | % | |
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D |
| 6.3 |
| 549 |
| D |
| 0.0 | % | |
Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3 |
| 4.3 |
| 510 |
| B |
| 16.1 | % | |
Ballantyne Re PLC Class A-2 Floating Rate Notes |
| 12.8 |
| 500 |
| D |
| NM |
| |
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J Class 1 & 2 |
| 5.4 |
| 493 |
| D |
| 0.0 | % | |
CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9 |
| 9.7 |
| 468 |
| BB |
| 8.5 | % | |
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer |
| 24.7 |
| 455 |
| D |
| n/a |
| |
Orkney Re II, PLC |
| 9.6 |
| 423 |
| B |
| NM |
| |
Detroit Michigan General Obligation |
| 16.1 |
| 316 |
| BB |
| n/a |
| |
Taberna Preferred Funding III, Ltd. |
| 21.7 |
| 288 |
| BB+ |
| 33.4 | % | |
Alesco Preferred Funding XVI, Ltd. |
| 24.5 |
| 262 |
| BB+ |
| 19.3 | % | |
Taberna Preferred Funding II, Ltd. |
| 21.7 |
| 245 |
| B |
| 33.3 | % | |
CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-OA10 |
| 3.2 |
| 182 |
| B |
| 10.8 | % | |
Guaranteed Student Loan transaction |
| 32.5 |
| 152 |
| B+ |
| n/a |
| |
Lehman Excess Trust 2007-16N |
| 4.6 |
| 140 |
| BB |
| 12.1 | % | |
ACE Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-SL3 |
| 2.5 |
| 131 |
| BB |
| 36.8 | % | |
Guaranteed Student Loan transaction |
| 28.2 |
| 110 |
| BB+ |
| n/a |
| |
ACE Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-SL2 |
| 3.2 |
| 106 |
| D |
| 0.0 | % | |
Argent Securities Inc. 2003-W6 |
| 4.1 |
| 95 |
| BB |
| 10.6 | % | |
Guaranteed Student Loan transaction |
| 37.6 |
| 95 |
| BB+ |
| n/a |
| |
Morgan Stanley Mortgage Loan Trust 2006-5AR |
| 5.6 |
| 86 |
| B |
| 7.3 | % | |
MASTR Asset Backed Securities Trust 2005-NC2 A4 |
| 5.5 |
| 80 |
| BB |
| 40.4 | % | |
SACO I Trust 2005-GP1 |
| 2.2 |
| 79 |
| D |
| 0.0 | % | |
American Home Mortgage Assets Trust 2007-3 |
| 2.8 |
| 67 |
| D |
| n/a |
| |
Customer Asset Protection Company (CAPCO), Excess SIPC |
| n/a |
| 63 |
| BB |
| 0.0 | % | |
CSAB Mortgage-Backed Trust 2007-1 |
| 6.3 |
| 63 |
| B |
| 6.3 | % | |
Bear Stearns ABS I Trust 2005-AC6 |
| 4.2 |
| 62 |
| BB |
| 9.6 | % | |
Chevy Chase Funding LLC Series 2006-2 Class A-2 |
| 4.1 |
| 56 |
| B |
| 19.1 | % | |
Total |
| 11.0 |
| $ | 7,726 |
| B- |
|
|
|
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
31
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (1 of 4)
As of March 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
25 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures
|
| Net Par |
|
|
|
|
| |
Credit Name: |
| Outstanding |
| Rating(1) |
|
|
| |
State of California General Obligation & Leases |
| $ | 2,077 |
| A+ |
|
|
|
New York City General Obligation & Leases |
| 1,443 |
| A+ |
|
|
| |
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases |
| 1,255 |
| BBB- |
|
|
| |
State of New Jersey General Obligation & Leases |
| 1,139 |
| AA- |
|
|
| |
Miami-Dade County Florida Aviation Authority |
| 1,125 |
| A |
|
|
| |
Commonwealth of Massachusetts General Obligation & Bay Transportation |
| 1,091 |
| A |
|
|
| |
Pennsylvania State Turnpike Commission |
| 1,067 |
| A+ |
|
|
| |
Long Island Power Authority |
| 995 |
| A- |
|
|
| |
State of New York General Obligation & Leases |
| 993 |
| A+ |
|
|
| |
City of Chicago General Obligation & Leases |
| 964 |
| AA- |
|
|
| |
Metropolitan Transportation Authority (New York) - Transportation Revenue |
| 947 |
| A |
|
|
| |
Port Authority of New York & New Jersey |
| 935 |
| AA- |
|
|
| |
North Texas Toll Road Authority |
| 911 |
| A+ |
|
|
| |
Los Angeles Unified School District |
| 907 |
| AA |
|
|
| |
Miami-Dade County School Board |
| 866 |
| A |
|
|
| |
Puerto Rico Highway & Transportation Authority |
| 847 |
| BBB |
|
|
| |
Chicago Public Building Commission - Chicago Board of Education |
| 842 |
| A |
|
|
| |
State of Washington General Obligation |
| 836 |
| AA |
|
|
| |
District of Columbia General Obligation |
| 796 |
| A |
|
|
| |
Denver International Airport System |
| 794 |
| A+ |
|
|
| |
San Francisco Airport Commission |
| 771 |
| A |
|
|
| |
Michigan State General Obligation |
| 690 |
| AA+ |
|
|
| |
Florida State General Obligation |
| 675 |
| AAA |
|
|
| |
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority |
| 614 |
| BBB+ |
|
|
| |
Hawaii State General Obligation |
| 608 |
| AA |
|
|
| |
Total top 25 U.S. public finance exposures |
| $ | 24,190 |
|
|
|
|
|
10 Largest Healthcare Exposures
|
| Net Par |
|
|
|
|
| |
Credit Name: |
| Outstanding |
| Rating(1) |
| State |
| |
Iowa Health System |
| $ | 413 |
| AA- |
| IA |
|
Methodist Health System |
| 403 |
| A |
| TN |
| |
Christus Health System |
| 329 |
| A+ |
| TX |
| |
Essentia Health |
| 261 |
| A- |
| MN |
| |
Integris Health, Inc. |
| 255 |
| AA |
| OK |
| |
Fairview Hospital & Healthcare Services |
| 218 |
| A |
| MN |
| |
Meridian Health System Obligated Group |
| 213 |
| A- |
| NJ |
| |
Catholic Healthcare West |
| 207 |
| A |
| CA |
| |
Lifebridge Health |
| 207 |
| A |
| MD |
| |
Centracare Health System |
| 196 |
| A |
| MN |
| |
Total top 10 healthcare exposures |
| $ | 2,701 |
|
|
|
|
|
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
32
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (2 of 4)
As of March 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
50 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures
|
| Net Par |
|
|
| Credit |
| |
Credit Name: |
| Outstanding |
| Rating(1) |
| Enhancement |
| |
Ares Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund |
| $ | 1,165 |
| AAA |
| 29.5 | % |
Fortress Credit Investments I & II |
| 1,092 |
| AAA |
| 27.2 | % | |
Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2 |
| 1,002 |
| B |
| 9.8 | % | |
Discover Card Master Trust I Series A |
| 1,000 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| 57.5 | % | |
Field Point III & IV, Limited |
| 991 |
| AA- |
| 13.9 | % | |
Anchorage Crossover Credit Finance Ltd |
| 875 |
| AAA |
| 21.7 | % | |
280 Funding I - Class A-1 & A-2 |
| 660 |
| AAA |
| 38.8 | % | |
MortgageIt Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2 |
| 649 |
| BB |
| 11.2 | % | |
Prospect Funding I LLC |
| 641 |
| AAA |
| 17.3 | % | |
Private RMBS Re-Remic |
| 638 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| 26.5 | % | |
Sandelman Finance 2006-1 Limited |
| 623 |
| AA |
| 33.6 | % | |
Applebee’s Enterprises LLC |
| 619 |
| BBB- |
| 33.2 | % | |
Private Structured Credit |
| 600 |
| BBB+ |
| Private |
| |
Park Avenue Receivables Company LLC |
| 598 |
| AAA |
| 2.5 | % | |
Private RMBS Re-Remic |
| 597 |
| AAA |
| 27.7 | % | |
Private RMBS Re-Remic |
| 582 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| 27.1 | % | |
Private RMBS Re-Remic |
| 565 |
| AA |
| 27.2 | % | |
CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D |
| 549 |
| D |
| 0.0 | % | |
Liberty CLO Ltd |
| 530 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| 35.7 | % | |
Field Point I & II, Limited |
| 529 |
| AA- |
| 29.4 | % | |
Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3 |
| 510 |
| B |
| 16.1 | % | |
LIICA Holdings, LLC |
| 495 |
| AA |
| 28.0 | % | |
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J Class 1 & 2 |
| 493 |
| D |
| 0.0 | % | |
Goldentree Credit Opportunities Financing I |
| 489 |
| AAA |
| 34.1 | % | |
Shenandoah Trust Capital I Term Securities |
| 484 |
| A+ |
| 22.4 | % | |
CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9 |
| 468 |
| BB |
| 8.5 | % | |
Jupiter Securitization Company |
| 462 |
| AAA |
| 2.5 | % | |
KKR Financial CLO 2007-1 |
| 461 |
| AAA |
| 35.7 | % | |
Aaa Trust 2007-2 |
| 454 |
| A |
| 43.0 | % | |
SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2007 |
| 450 |
| AAA |
| 11.0 | % | |
Private RMBS Re-Remic |
| 446 |
| A |
| 24.2 | % | |
Dow Jones CDX.IG.04 7-Year Index (II) |
| 425 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| 30.3 | % | |
Dow Jones CDX.NA.IG.4 Single Tranche Transaction |
| 425 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| 30.3 | % | |
Dow Jones CDX.IG.04 7-Year Index (I) |
| 425 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| 30.3 | % | |
SLM Student Loan Trust 2007 |
| 392 |
| AAA |
| 3.1 | % | |
Impac CMB Trust Series 2007-A |
| 391 |
| BBB |
| 8.3 | % | |
Wasatch CLO, Ltd. |
| 389 |
| AAA |
| 18.5 | % | |
Southfork CLO Ltd. Series 2005-A1 Class A1G |
| 380 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| 23.9 | % | |
Newstar Credit Opportunities Funding II |
| 374 |
| AA |
| 20.1 | % | |
Cent CDO XI Limited |
| 373 |
| AAA |
| 19.7 | % | |
Private RMBS Re-Remic |
| 369 |
| A |
| 37.3 | % | |
SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2006 |
| 356 |
| AAA |
| 11.0 | % | |
Alesco Preferred Funding XIV |
| 331 |
| A+ |
| 38.9 | % | |
ACS 2007-1 Pass Through Trust G-1 |
| 330 |
| A |
| 38.9 | % | |
Dow Jones CDX.IG.08 5 Year |
| 326 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| 30.3 | % | |
Comstock Funding Ltd |
| 326 |
| AAA |
| 25.2 | % | |
Mountain View CLO II |
| 322 |
| AAA |
| 21.2 | % | |
HSAM Long/Short 2007-2 |
| 315 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| 25.6 | % | |
Blue Mountain CLO Ltd. 2005-1 Class A1-F |
| 303 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| 31.6 | % | |
Taberna Preferred Funding VIII |
| 303 |
| AA |
| 50.7 | % | |
Total top 50 U.S. structured finance exposures |
| $ | 26,570 |
|
|
|
|
|
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
33
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (3 of 4)
As of March 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
25 Largest International Exposures
|
| Net Par |
|
|
| |
Credit Name: |
| Outstanding |
| Rating(1) |
| |
Prime European RMBS |
| $ | 1,236 |
| AAA / Super senior |
|
Permanent Master Issuer PLC |
| 1,226 |
| AAA |
| |
Arkle Master Issuer PLC |
| 1,207 |
| AAA |
| |
Gracechurch Mortgage Financing PLC |
| 1,198 |
| AAA |
| |
Graphite Mortgages PLC Provide Graphite 2005-2 |
| 888 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| |
Essential Public Infrastructure Capital II |
| 843 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| |
Granite Master Issuer PLC |
| 828 |
| AAA |
| |
Essential Public Infrastructure Capital III |
| 802 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| |
Synthetic CDO - IG ABS |
| 617 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| |
International Infrastructure Pool |
| 607 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| |
International Infrastructure Pool |
| 607 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| |
International Infrastructure Pool |
| 607 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| |
Paragon Mortgages (No.13) PLC |
| 588 |
| AAA |
| |
Taberna Europe CDO II PLC |
| 548 |
| A+ |
| |
Global Senior Loan Index Fund 1 B.V. |
| 503 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| |
Ballantyne Re PLC Class A-2 Floating Rate Notes |
| 500 |
| D |
| |
Stichting Profile Securitisation I |
| 485 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| |
Harvest CLO III |
| 452 |
| AAA |
| |
United Utilities Water PLC |
| 425 |
| A |
| |
RMF Euro CDO V PLC |
| 425 |
| AAA |
| |
Orkney Re II PLC |
| 423 |
| B |
| |
Taberna Europe CDO I PLC |
| 421 |
| A- |
| |
Nemus Funding No.1 PLC |
| 408 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| |
Southern Gas Networks PLC |
| 361 |
| BBB |
| |
Highlander Euro CDO |
| 357 |
| AAA / Super senior |
| |
Total top 25 international exposures |
| $ | 16,565 |
|
|
|
(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
34
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (4 of 4)
As of March 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
10 Largest Residential Mortgage Servicers Exposures
|
| Net Par |
| |
Servicer: |
| Outstanding |
| |
Countrywide Home Loans, Inc. |
| $ | 4,035 |
|
Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, Inc. |
| 2,776 |
| |
Residential Funding Corporation |
| 2,154 |
| |
Northern Rock PLC |
| 1,715 |
| |
European Mortgage Servicer (Private Transaction) |
| 1,236 |
| |
Halifax PLC |
| 1,230 |
| |
Cheltenham & Gloucester PLC |
| 1,207 |
| |
Barclays Bank PLC |
| 1,198 |
| |
EMC Mortgage Corp |
| 1,096 |
| |
AMC Mortgage Services |
| 711 |
| |
Total top 10 residential mortgage servicers exposures |
| $ | 17,360 |
|
35
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade and Closely Monitored Credits (“CMC”)
(dollars in millions)
Net Par Outstanding by Below Investment Grade Category (1)
|
| March 31, 2009 |
| |||||
Description: |
| Net Par |
| % of total |
| Number of |
| |
Category 1 |
| $ | 3,733 |
| 39.8 | % | 117 |
|
Category 2 |
| 3,363 |
| 35.8 | % | 222 |
| |
Category 3 |
| 2,295 |
| 24.4 | % | 125 |
| |
BIG Total |
| $ | 9,391 |
| 100.0 | % | 464 |
|
(1) Effective January 1, 2009 Assured adopted FAS 163. Assured’s surveillance department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of below investment grade (“BIG”) credits. The BIG credits are divided into three categories:. The closely monitored credits are divided into four categories: Category 1 (below investment grade credit with no FAS 163 loss reserve); Category 2 (below investment grade credit with a FAS 163 loss reserve established prior to an event of default); Category 3 (below investment grade credit with a FAS 163 loss reserve established and where an event of default has occurred or is imminent).
Net Par Outstanding by Credit Monitoring Category (1)
|
| December 31, 2008 |
| |||||
Description: |
| Net Par |
| % of total |
| Number of |
| |
Fundamentally sound risk |
| $ | 215,987 |
| 97.0 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Closely monitored credits: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Category 1 |
| 2,967 |
| 1.3 | % | 51 |
| |
Category 2 |
| 767 |
| 0.3 | % | 21 |
| |
Category 3 |
| 2,889 |
| 1.3 | % | 54 |
| |
Category 4 |
| 20 |
| — |
| 14 |
| |
CMC Total |
| 6,643 |
| 3.0 | % | 140 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Other below investment grade risk |
| 92 |
| — |
| 89 |
| |
Total |
| $ | 222,722 |
| 100.0 | % |
|
|
(1) Assured’s surveillance department is responsible for monitoring the Company’s portfolio of credits and maintains a list of closely monitored credits. The closely monitored credits are divided into four categories: Category 1 (low priority; fundamentally sound, greater than normal risk); Category 2 (medium priority; weakening credit profile, may result in loss); Category 3 (high priority; claim/default probable, case reserve established); Category 4 (claim paid, case reserve established for future payments). The closely monitored credits include all below investment grade (BIG) exposures where there is a material amount of exposure (generally greater than $10.0 million) or a material risk of the Company incurring a loss greater than $0.5 million. The closely monitored credits also include investment grade (IG) risks where credit quality is deteriorating and where, in the view of the Company, there is significant potential that the risk quality will fall below investment grade.
36
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense (“LAE”) Reserves by Segment/Type
(dollars in millions)
|
| As of March 31, 2009 |
| ||||||||||||||||
|
| Financial |
| Financial |
|
|
| Total |
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
|
| Guaranty |
| Guaranty |
| Mortgage |
| Financial |
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
|
| Direct |
| Reinsurance |
| Guaranty |
| Guaranty |
| Other |
| Total |
| ||||||
Financial guaranty insurance reserves by segment and type (1): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Case |
| $ | 110.3 |
| $ | 73.4 |
| $ | 30.1 |
| $ | 213.8 |
| $ | 1.2 |
| $ | 215.0 |
|
Incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) and portfolio |
| — |
| — |
| 1.9 |
| 1.9 |
| 5.6 |
| 7.5 |
| ||||||
Total financial guaranty insurance loss and LAE reserves |
| $ | 110.3 |
| $ | 73.4 |
| $ | 32.0 |
| $ | 215.7 |
| $ | 6.8 |
| $ | 222.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Credit derivative reserves by segment and type: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Case |
| $ | 40.8 |
| $ | 4.8 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 45.6 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 45.6 |
|
Total credit derivative reserves |
| $ | 40.8 |
| $ | 4.8 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 45.6 |
| $ | — |
| $ | 45.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Total loss and LAE reserves |
| $ | 151.1 |
| $ | 78.2 |
| $ | 32.0 |
| $ | 261.3 |
| $ | 6.8 |
| $ | 268.2 |
|
(1) The Company adopted FAS 163 effective January 1, 2009. Please refer to “Adoption of FAS 163” page for more information.
37
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses
As of March 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
|
| Total |
|
|
| Loss and Loss |
| |||
|
| Net Par |
| 1Q-09 |
| Adjustment |
| |||
|
| Outstanding |
| Incurred Losses(2), (4) |
| Expense Reserves(3), (4) |
| |||
Financial Guaranty Direct: (1) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Prime first lien |
| $ | 1,441 |
| $ | (0.7 | ) | $ | — |
|
Prime closed end seconds |
| 405 |
| 8.8 |
| 35.2 |
| |||
Prime HELOC |
| 1,168 |
| (0.1 | ) | 9.3 |
| |||
Alt-A first lien |
| 6,018 |
| (4.2 | ) | 15.4 |
| |||
Alt-A option ARMs |
| 1,518 |
| 10.7 |
| 28.1 |
| |||
Subprime first lien |
| 6,322 |
| 7.9 |
| 18.8 |
| |||
Total U.S. RMBS |
| 16,871 |
| 22.3 |
| 106.7 |
| |||
Other structured finance |
| 65,520 |
| (9.2 | ) | 43.7 |
| |||
Public finance |
| 53,180 |
| (0.1 | ) | 0.7 |
| |||
Total Financial Guaranty Direct |
| $ | 135,570 |
| $ | 13.1 |
| $ | 151.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance: (1) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Prime first lien |
| $ | 125 |
| $ | 0.5 |
| $ | 0.6 |
|
Prime closed end seconds |
| 11 |
| 2.0 |
| 3.0 |
| |||
Prime HELOC |
| 469 |
| 18.7 |
| 15.1 |
| |||
Alt-A first lien |
| 114 |
| 0.2 |
| 2.8 |
| |||
Alt-A option ARMs |
| 37 |
| (0.1 | ) | — |
| |||
Subprime first lien |
| 222 |
| 0.8 |
| 10.8 |
| |||
Total U.S. RMBS |
| 977 |
| 22.1 |
| 32.2 |
| |||
Other structured finance |
| 10,359 |
| (0.2 | ) | 8.4 |
| |||
Public finance |
| 90,269 |
| 14.6 |
| 37.6 |
| |||
Total Financial Guaranty Reinsurance |
| $ | 101,606 |
| $ | 36.5 |
| $ | 78.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Total Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance: (1) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Prime first lien |
| $ | 1,566 |
| $ | (0.2 | ) | $ | 0.6 |
|
Prime closed end seconds |
| 415 |
| 10.8 |
| 38.1 |
| |||
Prime HELOC |
| 1,636 |
| 18.7 |
| 24.4 |
| |||
Alt-A first lien |
| 6,132 |
| (4.1 | ) | 18.1 |
| |||
Alt-A option ARMs |
| 1,554 |
| 10.6 |
| 28.1 |
| |||
Subprime first lien |
| 6,543 |
| 8.7 |
| 29.5 |
| |||
Total U.S. RMBS |
| 17,847 |
| 44.4 |
| 138.9 |
| |||
Other structured finance |
| 75,879 |
| (9.4 | ) | 52.1 |
| |||
Public finance |
| 143,449 |
| 14.5 |
| 38.4 |
| |||
Total Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance |
| $ | 237,176 |
| $ | 49.6 |
| $ | 229.3 |
|
(1) Includes financial guaranty (FG) and insured derivatives in the insured portfolio.
(2) Includes loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) and incurred losses on credit derivatives, for the financial guaranty direct and reinsurance segments only.
(3) Includes loss and loss adjustment expense reserves for financial guaranty and credit derivatives, for the financial guaranty direct and reinsurance segments only.
(4) The Company adopted FAS 163 effective January 1, 2009. Please refer to “Adoption of FAS 163” page for more information.
38
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
|
|
|
| Year Ended December 31, |
| ||||||||
|
| YTD 2009 |
| 2008 |
| 2007 |
| 2006 |
| ||||
GAAP Summary Income Statement Data |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Net earned premiums (1) |
| $ | 148.4 |
| $ | 261.4 |
| $ | 159.3 |
| $ | 144.8 |
|
Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives |
| 29.7 |
| 117.6 |
| 74.0 |
| 73.9 |
| ||||
Net investment income |
| 43.6 |
| 162.6 |
| 128.1 |
| 111.5 |
| ||||
Total expenses (1) |
| 143.0 |
| 440.9 |
| 161.4 |
| 150.4 |
| ||||
Income (loss) before provision for income taxes |
| 100.1 |
| 112.3 |
| (463.0 | ) | 190.0 |
| ||||
Net income (loss) |
| 85.5 |
| 68.9 |
| (303.3 | ) | 159.7 |
| ||||
Operating income (b) |
| 63.4 |
| 74.5 |
| 178.0 |
| 157.2 |
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Net income (loss) per diluted share (2) |
| $ | 0.93 |
| $ | 0.77 |
| $ | (4.38 | ) | $ | 2.13 |
|
Operating income per diluted share (2) |
| $ | 0.69 |
| $ | 0.84 |
| $ | 2.57 |
| $ | 2.12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Financial Ratios: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Loss and LAE ratio (e) |
| 45.4 | % | 81.4 | % | 3.4 | % | (3.3 | )% | ||||
Expense ratio (e) |
| 31.4 | % | 38.7 | % | 55.8 | % | 59.2 | % | ||||
Combined ratio (e) |
| 76.8 | % | 120.1 | % | 59.2 | % | 55.9 | % | ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data (End of Period) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Total investments and cash |
| $ | 3,812.3 |
| $ | 3,643.6 |
| $ | 3,147.9 |
| $ | 2,469.9 |
|
Total assets |
| 5,588.3 |
| 4,555.7 |
| 3,762.9 |
| 2,931.6 |
| ||||
Unearned premium reserves (1) |
| 2,153.3 |
| 1,233.7 |
| 887.2 |
| 631.0 |
| ||||
Loss and LAE reserves (1) |
| 222.6 |
| 196.8 |
| 125.6 |
| 115.9 |
| ||||
Senior notes |
| 197.5 |
| 197.4 |
| 197.4 |
| 197.4 |
| ||||
Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures |
| 149.8 |
| 149.8 |
| 149.7 |
| 149.7 |
| ||||
Shareholders’ equity |
| 2,025.6 |
| 1,926.2 |
| 1,666.6 |
| 1,650.8 |
| ||||
Book value per share |
| $ | 22.48 |
| $ | 21.18 |
| $ | 20.85 |
| $ | 24.44 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Other Financial Information: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Net debt service outstanding (end of period) |
| $ | 357,216 |
| $ | 348,816 |
| $ | 302,413 |
| $ | 180,174 |
|
Gross debt service outstanding (end of period) |
| 362,323 |
| 354,858 |
| 307,657 |
| 181,503 |
| ||||
Net par outstanding (end of period) |
| 237,176 |
| 222,722 |
| 200,279 |
| 132,296 |
| ||||
Gross par outstanding (end of period) |
| 241,364 |
| 227,164 |
| 204,809 |
| 133,303 |
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Consolidated qualified statutory capital |
| 2,145 |
| 2,310 |
| 2,079 |
| 1,658 |
| ||||
Consolidated policyholders’ surplus and reserves |
| 3,768 |
| 3,652 |
| 3,040 |
| 2,374 |
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Ratios: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Par insured to statutory capital |
| 111:1 |
| 96:1 |
| 96:1 |
| 80:1 |
| ||||
Capital ratio (3) |
| 167:1 |
| 151:1 |
| 145:1 |
| 109:1 |
| ||||
Financial resources ratio (4) |
| 68:1 |
| 70:1 |
| 68:1 |
| 53:1 |
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Gross debt service written: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
U.S. public finance |
| $ | 38,116 |
| $ | 68,265 |
| $ | 66,190 |
| $ | 13,261 |
|
U.S. structured finance |
| 95 |
| 13,972 |
| 42,414 |
| 28,902 |
| ||||
International |
| 888 |
| 8,840 |
| 24,971 |
| 17,979 |
| ||||
Total gross debt service written |
| $ | 39,098 |
| $ | 91,078 |
| $ | 133,575 |
| $ | 60,142 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Net debt service written |
| 39,098 |
| 89,871 |
| 129,872 |
| 59,775 |
| ||||
Net par written |
| 22,276 |
| 55,418 |
| 84,686 |
| 50,541 |
| ||||
Gross par written |
| 22,276 |
| 56,140 |
| 88,117 |
| 50,892 |
|
(1) The Company adopted FAS 163 effective January 1, 2009. Please refer to “Adoption of FAS 163” page for more information.
(2) Effective January 1, 2009, the Company adopted FSP EITF 03-6-1, “Determining Whether Instruments Granted in Share-Based Payment Transactions Are Participating Securities” (“FSP”), which clarifies that share-based payment awards that entitle their holders to receive nonforfeitable dividends or dividend equivalents before vesting should be considered participating securities and shall be included in the calculation of basic and diluted earnings per share (“EPS”). Upon retrospective adoption of the FSP, Assured increased previously reported diluted EPS by $0.08 for 2007 and decreased previously reported diluted EPS by $0.02 for 2006. There was no impact on previously reported diluted EPS for 2008. Operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for all periods is positive, therefore the per diluted share calculation ignores the effect of the FSP and includes the effect of dilutive securities.
(3) The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by qualified statutory capital.
(4) The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b) and loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio (e)].
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Adoption of FAS 163
In May 2008, the Financial Accounting Standards Board issued Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 163, “Accounting for Financial Guarantee Insurance Contracts” (“FAS 163”). FAS 163 requires that an insurance enterprise recognize a claim liability prior to an event of default (insured event) when there is evidence that credit deterioration has occurred in an insured financial obligation. FAS 163 also clarifies the methodology to be used for financial guaranty premium revenue recognition and claim liability measurement, as well as requiring expanded disclosures about the insurance enterprise’s risk management activities. The provisions of FAS 163 related to premium revenue recognition and claim liability measurement are effective for financial statements issued for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2008, and all interim periods within those fiscal years. Earlier application of these provisions was not permitted. The expanded risk management activity disclosure provisions of FAS 163 were effective for the third quarter of 2008 and were included in the Company’s consolidated financial statements for those periods. FAS 163 will be applied to all existing and future financial guaranty insurance contracts written by the Company.
FAS 163 mandates the accounting changes proscribed by the statement be recognized by the Company as a cumulative effect adjustment to retained earnings as of January 1, 2009. The impact of adopting FAS 163 on the Company’s balance sheet was as follows:
(dollar in millions) |
| December 31, 2008 |
| Transition |
| January 1, 2009 |
| |||
ASSETS: |
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| |||
Deferred acquisition costs |
| $ | 288.6 |
| $ | 101.8 |
| $ | 390.5 |
|
Prepaid reinsurance premiums |
| 18.9 |
| 6.6 |
| 25.5 |
| |||
Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses |
| 6.5 |
| (1.2 | ) | 5.3 |
| |||
Premiums receivable |
| 15.7 |
| 721.4 |
| 737.2 |
| |||
Deferred tax asset |
| 129.1 |
| (7.7 | ) | 121.4 |
| |||
Salvage recoverable |
| 80.2 |
| 6.9 |
| 87.1 |
| |||
Total assets |
| 4,555.7 |
| 827.9 |
| 5,383.6 |
| |||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY: |
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|
|
|
| |||
Unearned premium reserves |
| $ | 1,233.7 |
| $ | 827.7 |
| $ | 2,061.4 |
|
Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses |
| 196.8 |
| (25.4 | ) | 171.4 |
| |||
Reinsurance balances payable |
| 18.0 |
| 6.2 |
| 24.1 |
| |||
Total liabilities |
| 2,629.5 |
| 808.4 |
| 3,437.9 |
| |||
Retained earnings |
| 638.1 |
| 19.4 |
| 657.5 |
| |||
Total shareholders’ equity |
| 1,926.2 |
| 19.4 |
| 1,945.7 |
| |||
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity |
| 4,555.7 |
| 827.9 |
| 5,383.6 |
|
A summary of the effects of FAS 163 on the balance sheet amounts above is as follows:
· Deferred acquisition costs increased to reflect commissions on future installment premiums related assumed reinsurance policies.
· Premium receivable increased to reflect the recording of the net present value of future installment premiums discounted at a risk-free rate. Reinsurance balances payable increased correspondingly for those amounts ceded to reinsurers.
· Unearned premium reserves increased to reflect the recording of the net present value of future installment premiums discounted at a risk-free rate and the change in the premium earnings methodology to the effective yield method proscribed by FAS 163. Prepaid reinsurance premiums increased correspondingly for those amounts ceded to reinsurers.
· Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses decreased to reflect the release of the Company’s portfolio reserves on fundamentally sound credits partially offset by an increase in case reserves calculated based on probability weighted cash flows discounted at a risk free rate instead of based on a single case best estimate reserve discounted based on the after-tax investment yield of the Company’s investment portfolio (6%).
· Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses decreased correspondingly. Salvage recoverable increased to reflect the change in discount rates.
· Deferred tax asset decreased to reflect the deferred tax effect of the above items.
· Retained earnings as of January 1, 2009 increased to reflect the net effect of the above adjustments.
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Glossary
Below are the brief descriptions of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s 10-K report.
Other public finance: primarily includes government insured student loans, government-sponsored project finance and structured municipal which includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits.
Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity: includes individual and repackaged securities backed by either prime, Alt-A, or subprime first and second lien mortgages. Alt-A Option ARMs: includes transactions where 66% or more of the collateral is comprised of mortgage loans that have the potential to negatively amortize. Alt-A First Lien: includes all transactions, other than Alt-A Option ARM transactions, where more than 50% of the collateral is comprised of mortgage loans that were originated with less than full documentation.
Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
Commercial mortgage-backed securities: includes individual and repackaged securities backed by commercial mortgage-backed securities.
Commercial receivables: includes equipment loans or leases, fleet auto financings and franchise loans.
Structured credit: includes whole business securitizations and intellectual property securitizations. Whole business securitizations are obligations backed by revenue-producing assets sold to a limited-purpose company by an operating company, including franchise agreements, lease agreements, intellectual property and real property.
Other structured finance: includes, manufactured housing, collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities and other securitizations not included in other asset classes.
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Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the financial supplement:
(a) Present value of financial guaranty and credit derivative gross written premiums, or PVP, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, on insurance and credit derivative contracts written in the current period, discounted at 6% per year. Management believes that PVP is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross premiums written and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlement on credit derivatives (“credit derivative revenues”) does not adequately measure. Management discounts estimated future installment premiums on insurance contracts for PVP at 6% per year, while under FAS 163 these amounts are discounted at a risk free rate. Additionally, under FAS 163 management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the contract whereas for PVP management only records its estimate of the future installment premiums that it expects to receive based on the contractual terms of the transaction. Actual future net earned or written premiums and credit derivative revenues may differ from PVP due to factors such as prepayments, amortizations, refundings, contract terminations or defaults that may or may not be influenced by market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for gross written premiums determined in accordance with GAAP.
(b) Operating income, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net income (loss) excluding i) after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and ii) after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives and the fair value adjustment of the Company’s committed capital securities, other than the Company’s net estimate of after-tax incurred case and portfolio loss and loss adjusted expense reserves for credit derivatives. Operating return on equity (ROE) represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholders’ equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives. Management believes that operating income and operating ROE are useful measures for management, investors and analysts because the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhance the understanding of Assured’s results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of Assured’s business. Realized gains (losses) on investments and unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives and the fair value adjustment of the Company’s committed capital securities, other than the portion attributable to the Company’s net estimate of incurred case and portfolio loss and loss adjustment expense reserves for credit derivatives, are excluded because the amount of both of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates, in part, according to changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. These measures should not be viewed as substitutes for net income (loss) or ROE determined in accordance with GAAP.
(c) Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined, subsequent to the adoption of FAS 163 in the first quarter of 2009, as shareholders’ equity (book value) plus the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve, which includes estimated future installment premiums in force, discounted at the risk free rate, net of prepaid reinsurance premiums, the after-tax value of unearned premium on credit derivatives net of prepaid reinsurance premiums and the after-tax net present value of estimated future installment premiums on credit derivatives in force, less future ceding commissions, discounted at 6%, less after-tax deferred acquisition costs.
Adjusted book value, prior to the adoption of FAS 163, was defined as shareholders’ equity (book value) plus the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve net of prepaid reinsurance premiums, the after-tax value of unearned premium on credit derivatives net of prepaid reinsurance premiums and the after-tax net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, less future ceding commissions, discounted at 6%, less after-tax deferred acquisition costs. Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because the calculation of adjusted book value permits an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in force premiums and shareholders’ equity. The premiums described above will be earned in future periods, but may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for book value determined in accordance with GAAP.
(d) Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as the present value of estimated future installment premiums from our credit derivative in-force books of business, net of reinsurance and discounted at 6%. Management believes that net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because it permits an evaluation of the value of future estimated credit derivative installment premiums. Estimated future premiums may change from period to period due to changes in par outstanding, maturity, or other factors that management cannot control or predict that result from market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors. There is no comparable GAAP financial measure.
(e) Loss ratio, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) plus the Company’s net estimate of credit derivative incurred case and portfolio loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, which is included in unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, plus net credit derivative losses (recoveries), which is included in realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives, divided by net earned premiums plus net credit derivative premiums earned, which is included in realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives. Expense ratio is calculated by dividing the sum of ceding commissions expense (income), profit commission expense, acquisition costs and operating expenses by net earned premiums plus net credit derivative premiums earned, which is included in realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives. Combined ratio, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is the sum of the loss ratio and the expense ratio. Management believes that loss, expense and combined ratios are useful measures for management, investors and analysts to measure the Company’s underwriting performance. There are no comparable GAAP financial measures.
For adjusted book value, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, and PVP, Assured uses 6% as the present value discount rate because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on Assured’s investment portfolio for the periods presented.
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| Contacts: |
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| Equity Investors and Media |
| Sabra Purtill |
| Managing Director, Global Communications and Investor Relations |
| (212) 408-6044 |
| spurtill@assuredguaranty.com |
|
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| Ross Aron |
| Associate, Investor Relations |
| (212) 261-5509 |
| raron@assuredguaranty.com |
|
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Assured Guaranty Ltd. | Fixed Income Investors |
30 Woodbourne Avenue | Michael Walker |
Hamilton HM 08 | Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations |
Bermuda | (212) 261-5575 |
www.assuredguaranty.com | mwalker@assuredguaranty.com |
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| Media |
| Ashweeta Durani |
| Vice President, Global Communications |
| and Media Relations |
| (212) 408-6042 |
| adurani@assuredguaranty.com |