Expected Losses to be Paid | 9 Months Ended |
Sep. 30, 2013 |
Expected Losses [Abstract] | ' |
Expected Loss to be Paid | ' |
Expected Loss to be Paid |
|
The following table presents a roll forward of the present value of net expected loss to be paid for all contracts, whether accounted for as insurance, credit derivatives or FG VIEs, by sector, after the benefit for net expected recoveries for contractual breaches of R&W. The Company used weighted average risk-free rates for U.S. dollar denominated obligations, which ranged from 0.0% to 4.36% as of September 30, 2013 and 0.0% to 3.28% as of December 31, 2012. |
|
Net Expected Loss to be Paid |
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W |
Roll Forward |
Third Quarter 2013 |
|
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Net Expected | | Economic Loss | | (Paid) | | Net Expected | | |
Loss to be | Development | Recovered | Loss to be | | |
Paid as of | | Losses(1) | Paid as of | | |
30-Jun-13 | | | September 30, 2013(2) | | |
| (in millions) | | |
U.S. RMBS: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
First lien: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Prime first lien | $ | 18 | | | $ | 3 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 21 | | | |
| |
Alt-A first lien | 288 | | | (85 | ) | | 3 | | | 206 | | | |
| |
Option ARM | (20 | ) | | 25 | | | 2 | | | 7 | | | |
| |
Subprime | 274 | | | 38 | | | (9 | ) | | 303 | | | |
| |
Total first lien | 560 | | | (19 | ) | | (4 | ) | | 537 | | | |
| |
Second lien: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Closed-end second lien | (14 | ) | | — | | | 1 | | | (13 | ) | | |
| |
HELOCs | (97 | ) | | (42 | ) | | 10 | | | (129 | ) | | |
| |
Total second lien | (111 | ) | | (42 | ) | | 11 | | | (142 | ) | | |
| |
Total U.S. RMBS | 449 | | | (61 | ) | | 7 | | | 395 | | | |
| |
TruPS | 33 | | | 9 | | | 8 | | | 50 | | | |
| |
Other structured finance | 158 | | | (13 | ) | | (17 | ) | | 128 | | | |
| |
U.S. public finance | 71 | | | 44 | | | 68 | | | 183 | | | |
| |
Non-U.S public finance | 66 | | | (1 | ) | | (12 | ) | | 53 | | | |
| |
Other | (3 | ) | | — | | | — | | | (3 | ) | | |
| |
Total | $ | 774 | | | $ | (22 | ) | | $ | 54 | | | $ | 806 | | | |
| |
|
Net Expected Loss to be Paid |
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W |
Roll Forward |
Third Quarter 2012 |
|
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Net Expected | | Economic Loss | | (Paid) | | Net Expected | | |
Loss to be | Development | Recovered | Loss to be | | |
Paid as of | | Losses(1) | Paid as of | | |
30-Jun-12 | | | September 30, 2012 | | |
| (in millions) | | |
U.S. RMBS: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
First lien: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Prime first lien | $ | 4 | | | $ | 1 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 5 | | | |
| |
Alt-A first lien | 321 | | | 14 | | | (24 | ) | | 311 | | | |
| |
Option ARM | 3 | | | 3 | | | (96 | ) | | (90 | ) | | |
| |
Subprime | 236 | | | 13 | | | (10 | ) | | 239 | | | |
| |
Total first lien | 564 | | | 31 | | | (130 | ) | | 465 | | | |
| |
Second lien: | | | | | | | | | |
Closed-end second lien | (29 | ) | | 4 | | | — | | | (25 | ) | | |
| |
HELOCs | (64 | ) | | (13 | ) | | (30 | ) | | (107 | ) | | |
Total second lien | (93 | ) | | (9 | ) | | (30 | ) | | (132 | ) | | |
Total U.S. RMBS | 471 | | | 22 | | | (160 | ) | | 333 | | | |
| |
TruPS | 50 | | | 5 | | | (2 | ) | | 53 | | | |
| |
Other structured finance | 320 | | | (3 | ) | | (2 | ) | | 315 | | | |
| |
U.S. public finance | 59 | | | 7 | | | (56 | ) | | 10 | | | |
| |
Non-U.S public finance | 302 | | | 33 | | | (289 | ) | | 46 | | | |
| |
Other | (4 | ) | | — | | | — | | | (4 | ) | | |
| |
Total | $ | 1,198 | | | $ | 64 | | | $ | (509 | ) | | $ | 753 | | | |
| |
|
Net Expected Loss to be Paid |
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W |
Roll Forward |
Nine Months 2013 |
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Net Expected | | Economic Loss | | (Paid) | | Net Expected | | |
Loss to be | Development | Recovered | Loss to be | | |
Paid as of | | Losses(1) | Paid as of | | |
December 31, 2012 (2) | | | September 30, 2013(2) | | |
| (in millions) | | |
U.S. RMBS: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
First lien: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Prime first lien | $ | 6 | | | $ | 16 | | | $ | (1 | ) | | $ | 21 | | | |
| |
Alt-A first lien | 315 | | | (83 | ) | | (26 | ) | | 206 | | | |
| |
Option ARM | (131 | ) | | (92 | ) | | 230 | | | 7 | | | |
| |
Subprime | 242 | | | 86 | | | (25 | ) | | 303 | | | |
| |
Total first lien | 432 | | | (73 | ) | | 178 | | | 537 | | | |
| |
Second lien: | | | | | | | | | |
Closed-end second lien | (39 | ) | | 7 | | | 19 | | | (13 | ) | | |
| |
HELOCs | (111 | ) | | (76 | ) | | 58 | | | (129 | ) | | |
| |
Total second lien | (150 | ) | | (69 | ) | | 77 | | | (142 | ) | | |
| |
Total U.S. RMBS | 282 | | | (142 | ) | | 255 | | | 395 | | | |
| |
TruPS | 27 | | | 7 | | | 16 | | | 50 | | | |
| |
Other structured finance | 312 | | | (39 | ) | | (145 | ) | | 128 | | | |
| |
U.S. public finance | 7 | | | 138 | | | 38 | | | 183 | | | |
| |
Non-U.S public finance | 52 | | | 13 | | | (12 | ) | | 53 | | | |
| |
Other | (3 | ) | | (10 | ) | | 10 | | | (3 | ) | | |
| |
Total | $ | 677 | | | $ | (33 | ) | | $ | 162 | | | $ | 806 | | | |
| |
|
Net Expected Loss to be Paid |
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W |
Roll Forward |
Nine Months 2012 |
|
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Net Expected | | Economic Loss | | (Paid) | | Net Expected | | |
Loss to be | Development | Recovered | Loss to be | | |
Paid as of | | Losses(1) | Paid as of | | |
31-Dec-11 | | | September 30, 2012 (2) | | |
| (in millions) | | |
U.S. RMBS: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
First lien: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Prime first lien | $ | 2 | | | $ | 3 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 5 | | | |
| |
Alt-A first lien | 295 | | | 27 | | | (11 | ) | | 311 | | | |
| |
Option ARM | 210 | | | 12 | | | (312 | ) | | (90 | ) | | |
| |
Subprime | 241 | | | 39 | | | (41 | ) | | 239 | | | |
| |
Total first lien | 748 | | | 81 | | | (364 | ) | | 465 | | | |
| |
Second lien: | | | | | | | | | |
Closed-end second lien | (86 | ) | | — | | | 61 | | | (25 | ) | | |
| |
HELOCs | (31 | ) | | 9 | | | (85 | ) | | (107 | ) | | |
| |
Total second lien | (117 | ) | | 9 | | | (24 | ) | | (132 | ) | | |
| |
Total U.S. RMBS | 631 | | | 90 | | | (388 | ) | | 333 | | | |
| |
TruPS | 64 | | | (6 | ) | | (5 | ) | | 53 | | | |
| |
Other structured finance | 342 | | | 7 | | | (34 | ) | | 315 | | | |
| |
U.S. public finance | 16 | | | 65 | | | (71 | ) | | 10 | | | |
| |
Non-U.S public finance | 51 | | | 215 | | | (220 | ) | | 46 | | | |
| |
Other | 2 | | | (6 | ) | | — | | | (4 | ) | | |
| |
Total | $ | 1,106 | | | $ | 365 | | | $ | (718 | ) | | $ | 753 | | | |
| |
____________________ |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
-1 | Net of ceded paid losses, whether or not such amounts have been settled with reinsurers. Ceded paid losses are typically settled 45 days after the end of the reporting period. Such amounts are recorded in reinsurance recoverable on paid losses included in other assets. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
-2 | Includes net expected loss adjustment expenses ("LAE") to be paid for mitigating claim liabilities of $34 million as of September 30, 2013 and $39 million as of December 31, 2012. The Company paid $12 million and $14 million in LAE for Third Quarter 2013 and 2012, respectively, and $41 million and $33 million in LAE for Nine Months 2013 and 2012, respectively. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|
Net Expected Recoveries from |
Breaches of R&W Rollforward |
Third Quarter 2013 |
|
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Future Net | | R&W Development | | R&W Recovered | | Future Net | | |
R&W Benefit as of | and Accretion of | During Third Quarter 2013(1) | R&W Benefit as of | | |
June 30, 2013(2) | Discount | | September 30, 2013(2) | | |
| During Third Quarter 2013 | | | | |
| (in millions) | | |
U.S. RMBS: | | | | | | | | | |
First lien: | | | | | | | | | |
Prime first lien | $ | 4 | | | $ | (1 | ) | | $ | — | | | $ | 3 | | | |
| |
Alt-A first lien | 348 | | | 37 | | | (16 | ) | | 369 | | | |
| |
Option ARM | 293 | | | 40 | | | (80 | ) | | 253 | | | |
| |
Subprime | 108 | | | 7 | | | — | | | 115 | | | |
| |
Total first lien | 753 | | | 83 | | | (96 | ) | | 740 | | | |
| |
Second lien: | | | | | | | | | |
Closed end second lien | 102 | | | 1 | | | (3 | ) | | 100 | | | |
| |
HELOC | 109 | | | 2 | | | (56 | ) | | 55 | | | |
| |
Total second lien | 211 | | | 3 | | | (59 | ) | | 155 | | | |
| |
Total | $ | 964 | | | $ | 86 | | | $ | (155 | ) | | $ | 895 | | | |
| |
|
Net Expected Recoveries from |
Breaches of R&W Rollforward |
Third Quarter 2012 |
|
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Future Net | | R&W Development | | R&W Recovered | | Future Net | | |
R&W Benefit as of | and Accretion of | During Third Quarter 2012(1) | R&W Benefit as of | | |
June 30, 2012(2) | Discount | | September 30, 2012 (2) | | |
| During Third Quarter 2012 | | | | |
| (in millions) | | |
U.S. RMBS: | | | | | | | | | |
First lien: | | | | | | | | | |
Prime first lien | $ | 4 | | | $ | — | | | $ | — | | | $ | 4 | | | |
| |
Alt-A first lien | 387 | | | — | | | (3 | ) | | 384 | | | |
| |
Option ARM | 711 | | | (7 | ) | | (81 | ) | | 623 | | | |
| |
Subprime | 93 | | | 11 | | | — | | | 104 | | | |
| |
Total first lien | 1,195 | | | 4 | | | (84 | ) | | 1,115 | | | |
| |
Second lien: | | | | | | | | | |
Closed end second lien | 137 | | | 2 | | | (3 | ) | | 136 | | | |
| |
HELOC | 122 | | | 6 | | | (8 | ) | | 120 | | | |
| |
Total second lien | 259 | | | 8 | | | (11 | ) | | 256 | | | |
| |
Total | $ | 1,454 | | | $ | 12 | | | $ | (95 | ) | | $ | 1,371 | | | |
| |
____________________ |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
-1 | Gross amounts recovered were $159 million and $99 million for Third Quarter 2013 and 2012, respectively. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
-2 | Includes excess spread that the Company will receive as salvage as a result of a settlement agreement with an R&W provider. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|
Net Expected Recoveries from |
Breaches of R&W Rollforward |
Nine Months 2013 |
|
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Future Net | | R&W Development | | R&W Recovered | | Future Net | | |
R&W Benefit as of | and Accretion of | During 2013(1) | R&W Benefit as of | | |
31-Dec-12 | Discount | | September 30, 2013(2) | | |
| During 2013 | | | | |
| (in millions) | | |
U.S. RMBS: | | | | | | | | | |
First lien: | | | | | | | | | |
Prime first lien | $ | 4 | | | $ | (1 | ) | | $ | — | | | $ | 3 | | | |
| |
Alt-A first lien | 378 | | | 24 | | | (33 | ) | | 369 | | | |
| |
Option ARM | 591 | | | 206 | | | (544 | ) | | 253 | | | |
| |
Subprime | 109 | | | 6 | | | — | | | 115 | | | |
| |
Total first lien | 1,082 | | | 235 | | | (577 | ) | | 740 | | | |
| |
Second lien: | | | | | | | | | |
Closed end second lien | 138 | | | (11 | ) | | (27 | ) | | 100 | | | |
| |
HELOC | 150 | | | 70 | | | (165 | ) | | 55 | | | |
| |
Total second lien | 288 | | | 59 | | | (192 | ) | | 155 | | | |
| |
Total | $ | 1,370 | | | $ | 294 | | | $ | (769 | ) | | $ | 895 | | | |
| |
|
Net Expected Recoveries from |
Breaches of R&W Rollforward |
Nine Months 2012 |
|
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Future Net | | R&W Development | | R&W Recovered | | Future Net | | |
R&W Benefit as of | and Accretion of | During 2012(1) | R&W Benefit as of | | |
31-Dec-11 | Discount | | September 30, 2012(2) | | |
| During 2012 | | | | |
| (in millions) | | |
U.S. RMBS: | | | | | | | | | |
First lien: | | | | | | | | | |
Prime first lien | $ | 3 | | | $ | 1 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 4 | | | |
| |
Alt-A first lien | 407 | | | 44 | | | (67 | ) | | 384 | | | |
| |
Option ARM | 725 | | | 55 | | | (157 | ) | | 623 | | | |
| |
Subprime | 101 | | | 3 | | | — | | | 104 | | | |
| |
Total first lien | 1,236 | | | 103 | | | (224 | ) | | 1,115 | | | |
| |
Second lien: | | | | | | | | | |
Closed end second lien | 224 | | | — | | | (88 | ) | | 136 | | | |
| |
HELOC | 190 | | | 6 | | | (76 | ) | | 120 | | | |
| |
Total second lien | 414 | | | 6 | | | (164 | ) | | 256 | | | |
| |
Total | $ | 1,650 | | | $ | 109 | | | $ | (388 | ) | | $ | 1,371 | | | |
| |
____________________ |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
-1 | Gross amounts recovered were $794 million and $410 million for Nine Months 2013 and 2012, respectively. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
-2 | Includes excess spread that the Company will receive as salvage as a result of a settlement agreement with an R&W provider. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|
The following tables present the present value of net expected loss to be paid for all contracts by accounting model, by sector and after the benefit for estimated and contractual recoveries for breaches of R&W. |
|
Net Expected Loss to be Paid |
By Accounting Model |
As of September 30, 2013 |
|
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Financial | | FG VIEs(1) | | Credit | | Total | | |
Guaranty | Derivatives | | |
Insurance | | | |
| (in millions) | | |
U.S. RMBS: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
First lien: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Prime first lien | $ | 3 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 18 | | | $ | 21 | | | |
| |
Alt-A first lien | 90 | | | 29 | | | 87 | | | 206 | | | |
| |
Option ARM | (14 | ) | | 11 | | | 10 | | | 7 | | | |
| |
Subprime | 144 | | | 73 | | | 86 | | | 303 | | | |
| |
Total first lien | 223 | | | 113 | | | 201 | | | 537 | | | |
| |
Second lien: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Closed-end second lien | (36 | ) | | 25 | | | (2 | ) | | (13 | ) | | |
| |
HELOCs | (43 | ) | | (86 | ) | | — | | | (129 | ) | | |
| |
Total second lien | (79 | ) | | (61 | ) | | (2 | ) | | (142 | ) | | |
Total U.S. RMBS | 144 | | | 52 | | | 199 | | | 395 | | | |
| |
TruPS | 4 | | | — | | | 46 | | | 50 | | | |
| |
Other structured finance | 170 | | | — | | | (42 | ) | | 128 | | | |
| |
U.S. public finance | 183 | | | — | | | — | | | 183 | | | |
| |
Non-U.S. public finance | 51 | | | — | | | 2 | | | 53 | | | |
| |
Subtotal | $ | 552 | | | $ | 52 | | | $ | 205 | | | 809 | | | |
| |
Other | | | | | | | (3 | ) | | |
Total | | | | | | | $ | 806 | | | |
| |
|
Net Expected Loss to be Paid |
By Accounting Model |
As of December 31, 2012 |
|
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Financial | | FG VIEs(1) | | Credit | | Total | | |
Guaranty | Derivatives | | |
Insurance | | | |
| (in millions) | | |
U.S. RMBS: | | | | | | | | | |
First lien: | | | | | | | | | |
Prime first lien | $ | 4 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 2 | | | $ | 6 | | | |
| |
Alt-A first lien | 164 | | | 27 | | | 124 | | | 315 | | | |
| |
Option ARM | (114 | ) | | (37 | ) | | 20 | | | (131 | ) | | |
| |
Subprime | 118 | | | 50 | | | 74 | | | 242 | | | |
| |
Total first lien | 172 | | | 40 | | | 220 | | | 432 | | | |
| |
Second lien: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Closed-end second lien | (60 | ) | | 31 | | | (10 | ) | | (39 | ) | | |
| |
HELOCs | 56 | | | (167 | ) | | — | | | (111 | ) | | |
| |
Total second lien | (4 | ) | | (136 | ) | | (10 | ) | | (150 | ) | | |
Total U.S. RMBS | 168 | | | (96 | ) | | 210 | | | 282 | | | |
| |
TruPS | 1 | | | — | | | 26 | | | 27 | | | |
| |
Other structured finance | 224 | | | — | | | 88 | | | 312 | | | |
| |
U.S. public finance | 7 | | | — | | | — | | | 7 | | | |
| |
Non-U.S. public finance | 51 | | | — | | | 1 | | | 52 | | | |
| |
Subtotal | $ | 451 | | | $ | (96 | ) | | $ | 325 | | | 680 | | | |
| |
Other | | | | | | | (3 | ) | | |
Total | | | | | | | $ | 677 | | | |
| |
___________________ |
(1) Refer to Note 9, Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities. |
|
|
The following tables present the net economic loss development for all contracts by accounting model, by sector and after the benefit for estimated and contractual recoveries for breaches of R&W. |
|
Net Economic Loss Development |
By Accounting Model |
Third Quarter 2013 |
|
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Financial | | FG VIEs(1) | | Credit | | Total | | |
Guaranty | Derivatives(2) | | |
Insurance | | | |
| (in millions) | | |
U.S. RMBS: | | | | | | | | | |
First lien: | | | | | | | | | |
Prime first lien | $ | — | | | $ | — | | | $ | 3 | | | $ | 3 | | | |
| |
Alt-A first lien | (53 | ) | | 3 | | | (35 | ) | | (85 | ) | | |
| |
Option ARM | 20 | | | 1 | | | 4 | | | 25 | | | |
| |
Subprime | 25 | | | 5 | | | 8 | | | 38 | | | |
| |
Total first lien | (8 | ) | | 9 | | | (20 | ) | | (19 | ) | | |
| |
Second lien: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Closed-end second lien | 2 | | | (3 | ) | | 1 | | | — | | | |
| |
HELOCs | (49 | ) | | 8 | | | (1 | ) | | (42 | ) | | |
| |
Total second lien | (47 | ) | | 5 | | | — | | | (42 | ) | | |
| |
Total U.S. RMBS | (55 | ) | | 14 | | | (20 | ) | | (61 | ) | | |
| |
TruPS | 1 | | | — | | | 8 | | | 9 | | | |
| |
Other structured finance | (13 | ) | | — | | | — | | | (13 | ) | | |
| |
U.S. public finance | 43 | | | — | | | 1 | | | 44 | | | |
| |
Non-U.S. public finance | (1 | ) | | — | | | — | | | (1 | ) | | |
| |
Subtotal | $ | (25 | ) | | $ | 14 | | | $ | (11 | ) | | (22 | ) | | |
| |
Other | | | | | | | — | | | |
| |
Total | | | | | | | $ | (22 | ) | | |
|
Net Economic Loss Development |
By Accounting Model |
Third Quarter 2012 |
|
|
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Financial | | FG VIEs(1) | | Credit | | Total | | |
Guaranty | Derivatives(2) | | |
Insurance | | | |
| (in millions) | | |
U.S. RMBS: | | | | | | | | | |
First lien: | | | | | | | | | |
Prime first lien | $ | 1 | | | $ | — | | | $ | — | | | $ | 1 | | | |
| |
Alt-A first lien | 38 | | | (34 | ) | | 10 | | | 14 | | | |
| |
Option ARM | (69 | ) | | 76 | | | (4 | ) | | 3 | | | |
| |
Subprime | 32 | | | (21 | ) | | 2 | | | 13 | | | |
| |
Total first lien | 2 | | | 21 | | | 8 | | | 31 | | | |
| |
Second lien: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Closed-end second lien | 63 | | | (64 | ) | | 5 | | | 4 | | | |
| |
HELOCs | 62 | | | (75 | ) | | — | | | (13 | ) | | |
| |
Total second lien | 125 | | | (139 | ) | | 5 | | | (9 | ) | | |
| |
Total U.S. RMBS | 127 | | | (118 | ) | | 13 | | | 22 | | | |
| |
TruPS | 3 | | | — | | | 2 | | | 5 | | | |
| |
Other structured finance | — | | | — | | | (3 | ) | | (3 | ) | | |
| |
U.S. public finance | 8 | | | — | | | (1 | ) | | 7 | | | |
| |
Non-U.S. public finance | 33 | | | — | | | — | | | 33 | | | |
| |
Subtotal | $ | 171 | | | $ | (118 | ) | | $ | 11 | | | 64 | | | |
| |
Other | | | | | | | — | | | |
| |
Total | | | | | | | $ | 64 | | | |
| |
|
Net Economic Loss Development |
By Accounting Model |
Nine Months 2013 |
|
|
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Financial | | FG VIEs(1) | | Credit | | Total | | |
Guaranty | Derivatives(2) | | |
Insurance | | | |
| (in millions) | | |
U.S. RMBS: | | | | | | | | | |
First lien: | | | | | | | | | |
Prime first lien | $ | (1 | ) | | $ | — | | | $ | 17 | | | $ | 16 | | | |
| |
Alt-A first lien | (60 | ) | | 3 | | | (26 | ) | | (83 | ) | | |
| |
Option ARM | (58 | ) | | (32 | ) | | (2 | ) | | (92 | ) | | |
Subprime | 40 | | | 25 | | | 21 | | | 86 | | | |
| |
Total first lien | (79 | ) | | (4 | ) | | 10 | | | (73 | ) | | |
| |
Second lien: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Closed-end second lien | — | | | (4 | ) | | 11 | | | 7 | | | |
| |
HELOCs | (66 | ) | | (10 | ) | | — | | | (76 | ) | | |
| |
Total second lien | (66 | ) | | (14 | ) | | 11 | | | (69 | ) | | |
| |
Total U.S. RMBS | (145 | ) | | (18 | ) | | 21 | | | (142 | ) | | |
| |
TruPS | 1 | | | — | | | 6 | | | 7 | | | |
| |
Other structured finance | (32 | ) | | — | | | (7 | ) | | (39 | ) | | |
| |
U.S. public finance | 137 | | | — | | | 1 | | | 138 | | | |
| |
Non-U.S. public finance | 12 | | | — | | | 1 | | | 13 | | | |
| |
Subtotal | $ | (27 | ) | | $ | (18 | ) | | $ | 22 | | | (23 | ) | | |
| |
Other | | | | | | | (10 | ) | | |
Total | | | | | | | $ | (33 | ) | | |
|
Net Economic Loss Development |
By Accounting Model |
Nine Months 2012 |
|
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Financial | | FG VIEs(1) | | Credit | | Total | | |
Guaranty | Derivatives(2) | | |
Insurance | | | |
| (in millions) | | |
U.S. RMBS: | | | | | | | | | |
First lien: | | | | | | | | | |
Prime first lien | $ | 2 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 1 | | | $ | 3 | | | |
| |
Alt-A first lien | 30 | | | (12 | ) | | 9 | | | 27 | | | |
| |
Option ARM | 15 | | | (9 | ) | | 6 | | | 12 | | | |
| |
Subprime | 29 | | | 4 | | | 6 | | | 39 | | | |
| |
Total first lien | 76 | | | (17 | ) | | 22 | | | 81 | | | |
| |
Second lien: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Closed-end second lien | 4 | | | (9 | ) | | 5 | | | — | | | |
| |
HELOCs | 3 | | | 6 | | | — | | | 9 | | | |
| |
Total second lien | 7 | | | (3 | ) | | 5 | | | 9 | | | |
| |
Total U.S. RMBS | 83 | | | (20 | ) | | 27 | | | 90 | | | |
| |
TruPS | (3 | ) | | — | | | (3 | ) | | (6 | ) | | |
| |
Other structured finance | 12 | | | — | | | (5 | ) | | 7 | | | |
| |
U.S. public finance | 66 | | | — | | | (1 | ) | | 65 | | | |
| |
Non-U.S. public finance | 216 | | | — | | | (1 | ) | | 215 | | | |
| |
Subtotal | $ | 374 | | | $ | (20 | ) | | $ | 17 | | | 371 | | | |
| |
Other | | | | | | | (6 | ) | | |
Total | | | | | | | $ | 365 | | | |
| |
_________________ |
(1) Refer to Note 9, Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities. |
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(2) Refer to Note 8, Financial Guaranty Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives. |
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Third Quarter 2013 U.S. RMBS Loss Projections |
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The Company's RMBS loss projection methodology assumes that the housing and mortgage markets will eventually improve. Each quarter the Company makes a judgment as to whether to change the assumptions it uses to make RMBS loss projections based on its observation during the quarter of the performance of its insured transactions (including early stage delinquencies, late stage delinquencies and loss severity) as well as the residential property market and economy in general, and, to the extent it observes changes, it makes a judgment as to whether those changes are normal fluctuations or part of a trend. Based on such observations the Company chose to use essentially the same assumptions and scenarios to project RMBS losses as of September 30, 2013 as it used as of June 30, 2013 and, with respect to its first lien RMBS, as it used as of December 31, 2012. The Company's use of essentially the same assumptions and scenarios to project RMBS losses as of September 30, 2013, as of June 30, 2013 and, with respect to its first lien RMBS, December 31, 2012, was consistent with its view at September 30, 2013 that the housing and mortgage market recovery is not being reflected as quickly in the performance of those transactions as it had anticipated at June 30, 2013 or December 31, 2012. During second quarter 2013 the Company had observed improvements in the performance of its second lien RMBS transactions that, when viewed in the context of their performance in previous quarters, suggested those transactions were beginning to respond to the improvements in the residential property market and economy being widely reported. Based on such observations, in projecting losses for its second lien RMBS the Company chose to decrease by two months in its base scenario and by three months in its optimistic scenario the period it assumed it would take the mortgage market to recover as compared to March 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012. The Company retained this change to its scenarios in its projections as of September 30, 2013. The Company observed some improvement in delinquency trends in most of its RMBS transactions during the third quarter, with some of that improvement in second liens driven by a servicing transfer it effectuated. Such improvement is naturally transmitted to its projections for each individual RMBS transaction, since the projections are based on the delinquency performance of the loans in that individual RMBS transaction. The Company also made adjustments during the quarter to its assumptions for specific transactions to reflect loss mitigation developments. The methodology and assumptions the Company uses to project RMBS losses and the scenarios it employs are described in more detail below under " - U.S. First Lien RMBS Loss Projections: Alt A First Lien, Option ARM, Subprime and Prime" and "- U.S. Second Lien RMBS Loss Projections: HELOCs and Closed-End Second Lien". |
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U.S. First Lien RMBS Loss Projections: Alt-A First Lien, Option ARM, Subprime and Prime |
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The majority of projected losses in first lien RMBS transactions are expected to come from non-performing mortgage loans (those that are delinquent or in foreclosure or where the loan has been foreclosed and the RMBS issuer owns the underlying real estate). Changes in the amount of non-performing loans from the amount projected in the previous period are one of the primary drivers of loss development in this portfolio. In order to determine the number of defaults resulting from these delinquent and foreclosed loans, the Company applies a liquidation rate assumption to loans in each of various delinquency categories. The liquidation rate is a standard industry measure that is used to estimate the number of loans in a given aging category that will default within a specified time period. The Company arrived at its liquidation rates based on data purchased from a third party provider and assumptions about how delays in the foreclosure process may ultimately affect the rate at which loans are liquidated. The Company projects these liquidations to occur over two years. Based on its review of that data, the Company maintained the same liquidation assumptions at December 31, 2012 as December 31, 2011. It chose to use those same liquidation rates at September 30, 2013 and June 30, 2013. The following table shows liquidation assumptions for various delinquency categories. |
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First Lien Liquidation Rates |
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| | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 30-Sep-13 | | 30-Jun-13 | | 31-Dec-12 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
30 – 59 Days Delinquent | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Alt A and Prime | 35% | | 35% | | 35% | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Option ARM | 50 | | 50 | | 50 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Subprime | 30 | | 30 | | 30 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
60 – 89 Days Delinquent | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Alt A and Prime | 55 | | 55 | | 55 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Option ARM | 65 | | 65 | | 65 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Subprime | 45 | | 45 | | 45 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
90+ Days Delinquent | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Alt A and Prime | 65 | | 65 | | 65 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Option ARM | 75 | | 75 | | 75 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Subprime | 60 | | 60 | | 60 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Bankruptcy | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Alt A and Prime | 55 | | 55 | | 55 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Option ARM | 70 | | 70 | | 70 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Subprime | 50 | | 50 | | 50 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Foreclosure | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Alt A and Prime | 85 | | 85 | | 85 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Option ARM | 85 | | 85 | | 85 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Subprime | 80 | | 80 | | 80 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Real Estate Owned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
All | 100 | | 100 | | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|
|
While the Company uses liquidation rates as described above to project defaults of non-performing loans, it projects defaults on presently current loans by applying a conditional default rate ("CDR") trend. The start of that CDR trend is based on the defaults the Company projects will emerge from currently nonperforming loans. The total amount of expected defaults from the non-performing loans is translated into a constant CDR (i.e., the CDR plateau), which, if applied for each of the next 24 months, would be sufficient to produce approximately the amount of defaults that were calculated to emerge from the various delinquency categories. The CDR thus calculated individually on the delinquent collateral pool for each RMBS is then used as the starting point for the CDR curve used to project defaults of the presently performing loans. |
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In the base case, after the initial 24-month CDR plateau period, each transaction’s CDR is projected to improve over 12 months to an intermediate CDR (calculated as 20% of its CDR plateau); that intermediate CDR is held constant for 36 months and then trails off in steps to a final CDR of 5% of the CDR plateau. Under the Company’s methodology, defaults projected to occur in the first 24 months represent defaults that can be attributed to loans that are currently delinquent or in foreclosure, while the defaults projected to occur using the projected CDR trend after the first 24 month period represent defaults attributable to borrowers that are currently performing. The CDR trend the Company used in its base case for September 30, 2013 was the same as it used for June 30, 2013 and December 31, 2012 but, because the initial CDR is calculated from currently delinquent loans, a reduction in the proportion of loans in a transaction currently delinquent will reduce that transaction's CDR (similarly, an increase in the proportion of loans currently delinquent will increase its CDR). This quarter the initial CDR calculated for most of first lien transactions was lower than that calculated last quarter, reflecting a reduction in the proportion of loans that are currently delinquent in those transactions. |
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Another important driver of loss projections is loss severity, which is the amount of loss the transaction incurs on a loan after the application of net proceeds from the disposal of the underlying property. Loss severities experienced in first lien transactions have reached historic high levels, and the Company is assuming that these high levels generally will continue for another year (in the case of subprime loans, the Company assumes the unprecedented 90% loss severity rate will continue for six months then drop to 80% for six months before following the ramp described below). The Company determines its initial loss severity based on actual recent experience. The Company’s loss severity assumptions for September 30, 2013 were the same as it used for June 30, 2013 and December 31, 2012. The Company then assumes that loss severities begin returning to levels consistent with underwriting assumptions beginning in one year, and in the base case scenario, decline from there over two years to 40%. |
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The following table shows the range of key assumptions used in the calculation of expected loss to be paid for individual transactions for direct vintage 2004 - 2008 first lien U.S. RMBS. |
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Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates |
First Lien RMBS(1) |
|
|
| | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| As of | | As of | | As of | | | |
30-Sep-13 | 30-Jun-13 | 31-Dec-12 | | | |
Alt-A First Lien | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Plateau CDR | 3.4 | % | – | 22.10% | | 3.7 | % | – | 22.30% | | 3.8 | % | – | 23.20% | | | |
Intermediate CDR | 0.7 | % | – | 4.40% | | 0.7 | % | – | 4.50% | | 0.8 | % | – | 4.60% | | | |
Final CDR | 0.2 | % | – | 1.10% | | 0.2 | % | – | 1.10% | | 0.2 | % | – | 1.20% | | | |
Initial loss severity | 65% | | 65% | | 65% | | | |
Initial conditional prepayment rate ("CPR") | 0 | % | – | 39.50% | | 0.4 | % | – | 32.20% | | 0 | % | – | 39.40% | | | |
Final CPR | 15% | | 15% | | 15% | | | |
Option ARM | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Plateau CDR | 6.4 | % | – | 24.70% | | 5.6 | % | – | 24.20% | | 7 | % | – | 26.10% | | | |
Intermediate CDR | 1.3 | % | – | 4.90% | | 1.1 | % | – | 4.80% | | 1.4 | % | – | 5.20% | | | |
Final CDR | 0.3 | % | – | 1.20% | | 0.3 | % | – | 1.20% | | 0.4 | % | – | 1.30% | | | |
Initial loss severity | 65% | | 65% | | 65% | | | |
Initial CPR | 0.2 | % | – | 10.90% | | 0.3 | % | – | 7.70% | | 0 | % | – | 10.70% | | | |
Final CPR | 15% | | 15% | | 15% | | | |
Subprime | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Plateau CDR | 6.5 | % | – | 23.70% | | 6.7 | % | – | 24.70% | | 7.3 | % | – | 26.20% | | | |
Intermediate CDR | 1.3 | % | – | 4.70% | | 1.3 | % | – | 4.90% | | 1.5 | % | – | 5.20% | | | |
Final CDR | 0.3 | % | – | 1.20% | | 0.3 | % | – | 1.20% | | 0.4 | % | – | 1.30% | | | |
Initial loss severity | 90% | | 90% | | 90% | | | |
Initial CPR | 0 | % | – | 11.80% | | 0 | % | – | 14.80% | | 0 | % | – | 17.60% | | | |
Final CPR | 15% | | 15% | | 15% | | | |
____________________ |
(1) Represents variables for most heavily weighted scenario (the “base case”). |
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The rate at which the principal amount of loans is prepaid may impact both the amount of losses projected (since that amount is a function of the conditional default rate, the loss severity and the loan balance over time) as well as the amount of excess spread (the amount by which the interest paid by the borrowers on the underlying loan exceeds the amount of interest owed on the insured obligations). The assumption for the CPR follows a similar pattern to that of the conditional default rate. The current level of voluntary prepayments is assumed to continue for the plateau period before gradually increasing over 12 months to the final CPR, which is assumed to be 15% in the base case. For transactions where the initial CPR is higher than the final CPR, the initial CPR is held constant. These assumptions are the same as those the Company used for June 30, 2013 and December 31, 2012. |
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In estimating expected losses, the Company modeled and probability weighted sensitivities for first lien transactions by varying its assumptions of how fast a recovery is expected to occur. One of the variables used to model sensitivities was how quickly the conditional default rate returned to its modeled equilibrium, which was defined as 5% of the current conditional default rate. The Company also stressed CPR and the speed of recovery of loss severity rates. The Company probability weighted a total of five scenarios (including its base case) as of September 30, 2013. For September 30, 2013 the Company used the same five scenarios and weightings as it used for June 30, 2013 and December 31, 2012. In a somewhat more stressful environment than that of the base case, where the conditional default rate plateau was extended three months (to be 27 months long) before the same more gradual conditional default rate recovery and loss severities were assumed to recover over four rather than two years (and subprime loss severities were assumed to recover only to 60%), expected loss to be paid would increase from current projections by approximately $60 million for Alt-A first liens, $17 million for Option ARM, $100 million for subprime and $4 million for prime transactions. In an even more stressful scenario where loss severities were assumed to rise and then recover over eight years and the initial ramp-down of the conditional default rate was assumed to occur over 15 months and other assumptions were the same as the other stress scenario, expected loss to be paid would increase from current projections by approximately $165 million for Alt-A first liens, $42 million for Option ARM, $158 million for subprime and $13 million for prime transactions. The Company also considered two scenarios where the recovery was faster than in its base case. In a scenario with a somewhat less stressful environment than the base case, where conditional default rate recovery was somewhat less gradual and the initial subprime loss severity rate was assumed to be 80% for 12 months and was assumed to recover to 40% over two years, expected loss to be paid would decrease from current projections by approximately $6 million for Alt-A first lien, $12 million for Option ARM, $28 million for subprime and $1 million for prime transactions. In an even less stressful scenario where the conditional default rate plateau was three months shorter (21 months, effectively assuming that liquidation rates would improve) and the conditional default rate recovery was more pronounced, (including an initial ramp-down of the CDR over nine months), expected loss to be paid would decrease from current projections by approximately $60 million for Alt-A first lien, $36 million for Option ARM, $81 million for subprime and $5 million for prime transactions. |
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U.S. Second Lien RMBS Loss Projections: HELOCs and Closed-End Second Lien |
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The Company believes the primary variable affecting its expected losses in second lien RMBS transactions is the amount and timing of future losses in the collateral pool supporting the transactions. Expected losses are also a function of the structure of the transaction; the voluntary prepayment rate (typically also referred to as CPR of the collateral); the interest rate environment; and assumptions about the draw rate and loss severity. These variables are interrelated, difficult to predict and subject to considerable volatility. If actual experience differs from the Company’s assumptions, the losses incurred could be materially different from the estimate. The Company continues to update its evaluation of these exposures as new information becomes available. |
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The following table shows the range of key assumptions for the calculation of expected loss to be paid for individual transactions for direct vintage 2004 - 2008 second lien U.S. RMBS. |
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Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates |
Second Lien RMBS(1) |
|
|
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
HELOC key assumptions | | As of | | As of | | As of | | |
30-Sep-13 | 30-Jun-13 | 31-Dec-12 | | |
Plateau CDR | | 1.4 | % | – | 8.90% | | 3.4 | % | – | 9.80% | | 3.8 | % | – | 15.90% | | |
Final CDR trended down to | | 0.4 | % | – | 3.20% | | 0.4 | % | – | 3.20% | | 0.4 | % | – | 3.20% | | |
Expected period until final CDR | | 34 months | | 34 months | | 36 months | | |
Initial CPR | | 4.5 | % | – | 20.00% | | 2.1 | % | – | 20.10% | | 2.9 | % | – | 15.40% | | |
Final CPR | | 10% | | 10% | | 10% | | |
Loss severity | | 98% | | 98% | | 98% | | |
|
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Closed-end second lien key assumptions | | As of | | As of | | As of | | |
30-Sep-13 | 30-Jun-13 | 31-Dec-12 | | |
Plateau CDR | | 6.2 | % | – | 14.40% | | 7.3 | % | – | 15.80% | | 7.3 | % | – | 20.70% | | |
Final CDR trended down to | | 3.5 | % | – | 9.10% | | 3.5 | % | – | 9.10% | | 3.5 | % | – | 9.10% | | |
Expected period until final CDR | | 34 months | | 34 months | | 36 months | | |
Initial CPR | | 3 | % | – | 13.00% | | 1.7 | % | – | 14.00% | | 1.9 | % | – | 12.50% | | |
Final CPR | | 10% | | 10% | | 10% | | |
Loss severity | | 98% | | 98% | | 98% | | |
____________________ |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
-1 | Represents variables for most heavily weighted scenario (the “base case”). | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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In second lien transactions the projection of near-term defaults from currently delinquent loans is relatively straightforward because loans in second lien transactions are generally “charged off” (treated as defaulted) by the securitization’s servicer once the loan is 180 days past due. Most second lien transactions report the amount of loans in five monthly delinquency categories (i.e., 30-59 days past due, 60-89 days past due, 90-119 days past due, 120-149 days past due and 150-179 days past due). The Company estimates the amount of loans that will default over the next five months by calculating current representative liquidation rates (the percent of loans in a given delinquency status that are assumed to ultimately default) from selected representative transactions and then applying an average of the preceding twelve months’ liquidation rates to the amount of loans in the delinquency categories. The amount of loans projected to default in the first through fifth months is expressed as a CDR. The first four months’ CDR is calculated by applying the liquidation rates to the current period past due balances (i.e., the 150-179 day balance is liquidated in the first projected month, the 120-149 day balance is liquidated in the second projected month, the 90-119 day balance is liquidated in the third projected month and the 60-89 day balance is liquidated in the fourth projected month). For the fifth month the CDR is calculated using the average 30-59 day past due balances for the prior three months, adjusted as necessary to reflect one-time servicing events. The fifth month CDR is then used as the basis for the plateau period that follows the embedded five months of losses. During the Third Quarter the Company observed material improvements in the delinquency measures of certain second lien RMBS for which the servicing had been transferred, and determined that much of this improvement was due to loan modifications and reinstatements made by the new servicer. To reflect the possibility that such recently modified and reinstated loans may have a higher likelihood of defaulting again, for such transactions the Company treated as past due 150-179 days a portion of the loans that are current or less than 150 days delinquent that it identified as having been recently modified or reinstated. Even with that adjustment, the improvement in delinquency measures for those transactions resulted in a lower initial CDR for those transactions than the initial CDR calculated last quarter. |
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As of September 30, 2013, for the base case scenario, the CDR (the “plateau CDR”) was held constant for one month. Once the plateau period has ended, the CDR is assumed to gradually trend down in uniform increments to its final long-term steady state CDR. (The long-term steady state CDR is calculated as the constant CDR that would have yielded the amount of losses originally expected at underwriting.) In the base case scenario, the time over which the CDR trends down to its final CDR is 28 months. Therefore, the total stress period for second lien transactions is 34 months, comprising five months of delinquent data, a one month plateau period and 28 months of decrease to the steady state CDR. This is the same period as used for June 30, 2013 but two months shorter than used for December 31, 2012. When a second lien loan defaults, there is generally a very low recovery. Based on current expectations of future performance, the Company assumes that it will only recover 2% of the collateral, the same as June 30, 2013 and December 31, 2012. |
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The rate at which the principal amount of loans is prepaid may impact both the amount of losses projected (which is a function of the CDR and the loan balance over time) as well as the amount of excess spread (which is the excess of the interest paid by the borrowers on the underlying loan over the amount of interest and expenses owed on the insured obligations). In the base case, the current CPR (based on experience of the most recent three quarters) is assumed to continue until the end of the plateau before gradually increasing to the final CPR over the same period the CDR decreases. For transactions where the initial CPR is higher than the final CPR, the initial CPR is held constant. The final CPR is assumed to be 10% for both HELOC and closed-end second lien transactions. This level is much higher than current rates for most transactions, but lower than the historical average, which reflects the Company’s continued uncertainty about the projected performance of the borrowers in these transactions. This pattern is consistent with how the Company modeled the CPR at June 30, 2013 and December 31, 2012. To the extent that prepayments differ from projected levels it could materially change the Company’s projected excess spread and losses. |
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The Company uses a number of other variables in its second lien loss projections, including the spread between relevant interest rate indices, the loss severity, and HELOC draw rates (the amount of new advances provided on existing HELOCs expressed as a percentage of current outstanding advances). These variables have been relatively stable over the past several quarters and in the relevant ranges have less impact on the projection results than the variables discussed above. |
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In estimating expected losses, the Company modeled and probability weighted three possible CDR curves applicable to the period preceding the return to the long-term steady state CDR. The Company believes that the level of the elevated CDR and the length of time it will persist is the primary driver behind the likely amount of losses the collateral will suffer (before considering the effects of repurchases of ineligible loans). The Company continues to evaluate the assumptions affecting its modeling results. |
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As of September 30, 2013, the Company’s base case assumed a one month CDR plateau and a 28 month ramp-down (for a total stress period of 34 months). The Company also modeled a scenario with a longer period of elevated defaults and another with a shorter period of elevated defaults and weighted them the same as of June 30, 2013 and December 31, 2012. Increasing the CDR plateau to four months and increasing the ramp-down by five months to 33-months (for a total stress period of 42 months) would increase the expected loss by approximately $30 million for HELOC transactions and $2 million for closed-end second lien transactions. On the other hand, keeping the CDR plateau at one month but decreasing the length of the CDR ramp-down to 18 months (for a total stress period of 24 months) would decrease the expected loss by approximately $28 million for HELOC transactions and $2 million for closed-end second lien transactions. |
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Breaches of Representations and Warranties |
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Generally, when mortgage loans are transferred into a securitization, the loan originator(s) and/or sponsor(s) provide R&W that the loans meet certain characteristics, and a breach of such R&W often requires that the loan be repurchased from the securitization. In many of the transactions the Company insures, it is in a position to enforce these R&W provisions. Soon after the Company observed the deterioration in the performance of its insured RMBS following the deterioration of the residential mortgage and property markets, the Company began using internal resources as well as third party forensic underwriting firms and legal firms to pursue breaches of R&W on a loan-by-loan basis. Where a provider of R&W refused to honor its repurchase obligations, the Company sometimes chose to initiate litigation. See “Recovery Litigation” below. The Company's success in pursuing these strategies permitted the Company to enter into agreements with R&W providers under which those providers made payments to the Company, agreed to make payments to the Company in the future, and / or repurchased loans from the transactions, all in return for releases of related liability by the Company. Such agreements provide the Company with many of the benefits of pursuing the R&W claims on a loan by loan basis or through litigation, but without the related expense and uncertainty. The Company continues to pursue these strategies against R&W providers with which it does not yet have agreements. |
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Using these strategies, through September 30, 2013 the Company has caused entities providing R&Ws to pay or agree to pay approximately $3.5 billion (gross of reinsurance) in respect of their R&W liabilities for transactions in which the Company has provided insurance. |
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| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| (in millions) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Agreement amounts already received | $ | 2,421 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Agreement amounts projected to be received in the future | 492 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Repurchase amounts paid into the relevant RMBS prior to settlement (1) | 574 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total R&W payments, gross of reinsurance | $ | 3,487 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
____________________ |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
-1 | These amounts were paid into the relevant RMBS transactions (rather than to the Company as in most settlements) and distributed in accordance with the priority of payments set out in the relevant transaction documents. Because the Company may insure only a portion of the capital structure of a transaction, such payments will not necessarily directly benefit the Company dollar-for-dollar, especially in first lien transactions. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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Based on this success, the Company has included in its net expected loss estimates as of September 30, 2013 an estimated net benefit related to breaches of R&W of $895 million, which includes $476 million from agreements with R&W providers and $419 million in transactions where the Company does not yet have such an agreement, all net of reinsurance. |
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Representations and Warranties Agreements (1) |
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| Agreement Date | | Current Net Par Covered | | Receipts to September 30, 2013 (net of reinsurance) | | Estimated Future Receipts (net of reinsurance) | | Eligible Assets Held in Trust (gross of reinsurance) |
| (in millions) |
Bank of America - First Lien | Apr-11 | | $ | 1,094 | | | $ | 456 | | | $ | 230 | | | $ | 615 | |
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Bank of America - Second Lien | Apr-11 | | 1,426 | | | 968 | | | N/A | | | N/A | |
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Deutsche Bank | May-12 | | 2,071 | | | 176 | | | 105 | | | 240 | |
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UBS | May-13 | | 850 | | | 378 | | | 92 | | | 195 | |
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Others | Various | | 561 | | | 241 | | | 49 | | | N/A | |
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Total | | | $ | 6,002 | | | $ | 2,219 | | | $ | 476 | | | $ | 1,050 | |
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____________________ |
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-1 | This table relates to past and projected future recoveries under R&W and related agreements. Excluded is the $419 million of future net recoveries the Company projects receiving from R&W counterparties in transactions with $1,965 million of net par outstanding as of September 30, 2013 not covered by current agreements and $841 million of net par already covered by agreements but for which the Company projects receiving additional amounts. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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The Company's agreements with the counterparties named in the table above required an initial payment to the Company to reimburse it for past claims as well as an obligation to reimburse it for a portion of future claims. The named counterparties placed eligible assets in trust to collateralize their future reimbursement obligations, and the amount of collateral they are required to post may be increased or decreased from time to time as determined by rating agency requirements. Reimbursement payments under these agreements are made either monthly or quarterly and have been made timely. With respect to the reimbursement for future claims: |
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• | Bank of America. Under the Company's agreement with Bank of America Corporation and certain of its subsidiaries (“Bank of America” or “BofA”), Bank of America agreed to reimburse the Company for 80% of claims on the first lien transactions covered by the agreement that the Company pays in the future, until the aggregate lifetime collateral losses (not insurance losses or claims) on those transactions reach $6.6 billion. As of September 30, 2013 aggregate lifetime collateral losses on those transactions was $3.7 billion, and the Company was projecting in its base case that such collateral losses would eventually reach $5.2 billion. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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• | Deutsche Bank. Under the Company's May 2012 agreement with Deutsche Bank AG and certain of its affiliates (collectively, “Deutsche Bank”), Deutsche Bank agreed to reimburse the Company for certain claims it pays in the future on eight first and second lien transactions, including 80% of claims it pays on those transactions until the aggregate lifetime claims (before reimbursement) reach $319 million. As of September 30, 2013, the Company was projecting in its base case that such aggregate lifetime claims would remain below $319 million. In the event aggregate lifetime claims paid exceed $389 million, Deutsche Bank must reimburse Assured Guaranty for 85% of such claims paid (in excess of $389 million) until such claims paid reach $600 million. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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The agreement also requires Deutsche Bank to reimburse AGC for future claims it pays on certain RMBS re-securitizations. The amount available for reimbursement of claim payments is based on a percentage of the losses that occur in certain uninsured tranches (“Uninsured Tranches”) within the eight transactions described above: 60% of losses on the Uninsured Tranches (up to $141 million of losses), 60% of such losses (for losses between $161 million and $185 million), and 100% of such losses (for losses from $185 million to $248 million). Losses on the Uninsured Tranches from $141 million to $161 million and above $248 million are not included in the calculation of AGC's reimbursement amount for re-securitization claim payments. As of September 30, 2013, the Company was projecting in its base case that losses on the Uninsured Tranches would be $148 million. Pursuant to the CDS termination on October 10, 2013 described below, a portion of Deutsche Bank's reimbursement obligation was applied to the terminated CDS. After giving effect to application of the portion of the reimbursement obligation to the terminated CDS, as well as to reimbursements related to other covered RMBS re-securitizations, and based on the Company's base case projections for losses on the Uninsured Tranches, the Company expects that $26 million will be available to reimburse AGC for re-securitization claim payments on the remaining re-securitizations. Except for the reimbursement obligation based on losses occurring on the Uninsured Tranches and the termination agreed to described below, the agreement with Deutsche Bank does not cover transactions where the Company has provided protection to Deutsche Bank on RMBS transactions in CDS form. |
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On October 10, 2013, the Company and Deutsche Bank terminated one below investment grade transaction under which the Company had provided credit protection to Deutsche Bank through a CDS. The transaction had a net par outstanding of $294 million at the time of termination. In connection with the termination, Assured Guaranty agreed to release to Deutsche Bank $60 million of assets held in trust that was in excess of the amount of assets required to be held in trust for regulatory and rating agency capital relief. |
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• | UBS. Under the Company's agreement with UBS and a third party, UBS agreed to reimburse the Company for 85% of future losses on three first lien RMBS transactions. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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The Company includes in the table above payments it has received under agreements with various other counterparties for breaches of R&W. Included in the table are benefits of the settlement AGM reached with Flagstar in connection with the favorable judgment AGM had won against Flagstar, under which Flagstar paid AGM $105 million and agreed to reimburse AGM for all future losses on certain insured RMBS transactions. Also included in the table above are payments the Company received for breaches of underwriting and servicing obligations. Some of the agreements with various other counterparties include obligations to reimburse the Company for all or a portion of future claims. In one instance, the Company is entitled to reimbursement from the cash flow from the mortgage loans still outstanding from a securitization as to which the insured notes have been paid off, and the Company includes in its projected R&W benefit an amount based on the cash flow it projects receiving from those mortgage loans. |
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Finally, based on its experience to date, the Company calculated an expected recovery of $419 million from breaches of R&W in transactions not covered by agreements with $1,965 million of net par outstanding as of September 30, 2013 and $841 million of net par already covered by agreements but for which the Company projects receiving additional amounts. The Company did not incorporate any gain contingencies or damages paid from potential litigation in its estimated repurchases. The amount the Company will ultimately recover related to such contractual R&W is uncertain and subject to a number of factors including the counterparty's ability to pay, the number and loss amount of loans determined to have breached R&W and, potentially, negotiated settlements or litigation recoveries. As such, the Company's estimate of recoveries is uncertain and actual amounts realized may differ significantly from these estimates. In arriving at the expected recovery from breaches of R&W not already covered by agreements, the Company considered the creditworthiness of the provider of the R&W, the number of breaches found on defaulted loans, the success rate in resolving these breaches across those transactions where material repurchases have been made and the potential amount of time until the recovery is realized. The calculation of expected recovery from breaches of such contractual R&W involved a variety of scenarios which ranged from the Company recovering substantially all of the losses it incurred due to violations of R&W to the Company realizing limited recoveries. These scenarios were probability weighted in order to determine the recovery incorporated into the Company's estimate of expected losses. This approach was used for both loans that had already defaulted and those assumed to default in the future. For the RMBS transactions as to which the Company had not yet reached an agreement with the R&W counterparty as of September 30, 2013, the Company had performed a detailed review of approximately 21,700 loan files, representing approximately $6.1 billion loans underlying insured transactions. In the majority of its loan file reviews, the Company identified breaches of one or more R&W regarding the characteristics of the loans, such as misrepresentation of income or employment of the borrower, occupancy, undisclosed debt and non-compliance with underwriting guidelines at loan origination. |
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The Company uses the same RMBS projection scenarios and weightings to project its future R&W benefit as it uses to project RMBS losses on its portfolio. To the extent the Company increases its loss projections, the R&W benefit (whether pursuant to an R&W agreement or not) generally will also increase, subject to the agreement limits and thresholds described above. |
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The Company accounts for the loss sharing obligations under the R&W agreements on financial guaranty insurance contracts as subrogation, offsetting the losses it projects by an R&W benefit from the relevant party for the applicable portion of the projected loss amount. Proceeds projected to be reimbursed to the Company on transactions where the Company has already paid claims are viewed as a recovery on paid losses. For transactions where the Company has not already paid claims, projected recoveries reduce projected loss estimates. In either case, projected recoveries have no effect on the amount of the Company's exposure. See Notes 7, Fair Value Measurement and 9, Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities. |
U.S. RMBS Risks with R&W Benefit |
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| Number of Risks (1) as of | | Debt Service as of | | | | |
| September 30, 2013 | | December 31, 2012 | | September 30, 2013 | | December 31, 2012 | | | | |
| | | | | (dollars in millions) | | | | |
Prime first lien | 1 | | | 1 | | | $ | 38 | | | $ | 44 | | | | | |
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Alt-A first lien | 25 | | | 26 | | | 3,607 | | | 4,173 | | | | | |
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Option ARM | 9 | | | 10 | | | 695 | | | 1,183 | | | | | |
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Subprime | 5 | | | 5 | | | 991 | | | 989 | | | | | |
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Closed-end second lien | 4 | | | 4 | | | 164 | | | 260 | | | | | |
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HELOC | 6 | | | 7 | | | 436 | | | 549 | | | | | |
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Total | 50 | | | 53 | | | $ | 5,931 | | | $ | 7,198 | | | | | |
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(1) A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making Debt Service payments. This table shows the full future Debt Service (not just the amount of Debt Service expected to be reimbursed) for risks with projected future R&W benefit, whether pursuant to an agreement or not. |
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The following table provides a breakdown of the development and accretion amount in the roll forward of estimated recoveries associated with alleged breaches of R&W. |
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| Third Quarter | | Nine Months | | |
| 2013 | | 2012 | | 2013 | | 2012 | | |
| (in millions) | | |
Inclusion (removal) of deals with breaches of R&W during period | $ | — | | | $ | — | | | $ | 6 | | | $ | (5 | ) | | |
| |
Change in recovery assumptions as the result of additional file review and recovery success | 69 | | | — | | | 86 | | | 70 | | | |
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Estimated increase (decrease) in defaults that will result in additional (lower) breaches | 13 | | | 10 | | | 10 | | | (14 | ) | | |
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Results of settlements | — | | | — | | | 180 | | | 48 | | | |
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Accretion of discount on balance | 4 | | | 2 | | | 12 | | | 10 | | | |
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Total | $ | 86 | | | $ | 12 | | | $ | 294 | | | $ | 109 | | | |
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The Company assumes that recoveries on second lien transactions that were not subject to the settlement agreements will occur in two to four years from the balance sheet date depending on the scenarios, and that recoveries on transactions backed by Alt-A first lien, Option ARM and Subprime loans will occur as claims are paid over the life of the transactions. |
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“XXX” Life Insurance Transactions |
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The Company’s $2.8 billion net par of XXX life insurance transactions as of September 30, 2013 include $623 million rated BIG. The BIG “XXX” life insurance reserve securitizations are based on discrete blocks of individual life insurance business. In each such transaction the monies raised by the sale of the bonds insured by the Company were used to capitalize a special purpose vehicle that provides reinsurance to a life insurer or reinsurer. The monies are invested at inception in accounts managed by third-party investment managers. |
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The BIG “XXX” life insurance transactions consist of two transactions: Ballantyne Re p.l.c and Orkney Re II p.l.c. These transactions had material amounts of their assets invested in U.S. RMBS transactions. Based on its analysis of the information currently available, including estimates of future investment performance, and projected credit impairments on the invested assets and performance of the blocks of life insurance business at September 30, 2013, the Company’s projected net expected loss to be paid is $85 million. The overall decrease of approximately $30 million in expected loss to be paid during Third Quarter 2013 is due primarily to the higher risk free rates used to discount the long dated projected losses in the transactions and the purchase of certain insured certificates. |
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Student Loan Transactions |
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The Company has insured or reinsured $2.8 billion net par of student loan securitizations, of which $1.9 billion was issued by private issuers and classified as asset-backed and $0.9 billion was issued by public authorities and classified as public finance. Of these amounts, $209 million and $257 million, respectively, are rated BIG. The Company is projecting approximately $64 million of net expected loss to be paid in these portfolios. In general, the losses are due to: (i) the poor credit performance of private student loan collateral and high loss severities, or (ii) high interest rates on auction rate securities with respect to which the auctions have failed. The largest of these losses was approximately $27 million and related to a transaction backed by a pool of private student loans assumed by AG Re from another monoline insurer. The guaranteed bonds were issued as auction rate securities that now bear a high rate of interest due to the downgrade of the primary insurer’s financial strength rating. Further, the underlying loan collateral has performed below expectations. The overall increase of approximately $8 million in net expected loss during Third Quarter 2013 is primarily due to worse than expected collateral performance. |
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Trust Preferred Securities Collateralized Debt Obligations |
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The Company has insured or reinsured $5.2 billion of net par (71% of which is in CDS form) of collateralized debt obligations (“CDOs”) backed by TruPS and similar debt instruments, or “TruPS CDOs.” Of the $5.2 billion, $2.0 billion is rated BIG. The underlying collateral in the TruPS CDOs consists of subordinated debt instruments such as TruPS issued by bank holding companies and similar instruments issued by insurance companies, real estate investment trusts (“REITs”) and other real estate related issuers. |
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The Company projects losses for TruPS CDOs by projecting the performance of the asset pools across several scenarios (which it weights) and applying the CDO structures to the resulting cash flows. At September 30, 2013, the Company has projected expected losses to be paid for TruPS CDOs of $50 million. The increase of approximately $17 million in net expected loss during Third Quarter 2013 is due primarily to additional defaults and deferrals in the underlying assets. |
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Selected U.S. Public Finance Transactions |
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Many U.S. municipalities and related entities continue to be under increased pressure, and a few have filed for protection under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, entered into state processes designed to help municipalities in fiscal distress or otherwise indicated they may consider not meeting their obligations to make timely payments on their debts. Given some of these developments, and the circumstances surrounding each instance, the ultimate outcome cannot be certain and may lead to an increase in defaults on some of the Company's insured public finance obligations. The Company will continue to analyze developments in each of these matters closely. The municipalities whose obligations the Company has insured that have filed for protection under Chapter 9 of the U.S Bankruptcy Code are: Detroit, Michigan; Jefferson County, Alabama; and Stockton, California. The City Council of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania had also filed a purported bankruptcy petition, which was later dismissed by the bankruptcy court; a receiver for the City of Harrisburg was appointed by the Commonwealth Court of Pennsylvania on December 2, 2011. |
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The Company has net par exposure to the City of Detroit, Michigan of $2.1 billion as of September 30, 2013. On July 18, 2013, the City of Detroit filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. Most of the Company's net par exposure relates to $1.0 billion of sewer revenue bonds and $784 million of water revenue bonds, both of which the Company rates BBB. Both the sewer and water systems provide services to areas that extend beyond the city limits, and the bonds are secured by a lien on "special revenues." The Company also has net par exposure of $146 million to the City's general obligation bonds (which are secured by a pledge of the unlimited tax, full faith, credit and resources of the City) and $175 million of the City's Certificates of Participation (which are unsecured unconditional contractual obligations of the City), both of which the Company rates below investment grade. A proceeding to determine the City's eligibility for protection under Chapter 9 took place in October and November 2013. On November 8, 2013, AGM filed a complaint in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Michigan against the City seeking a declaratory judgment with respect to the City’s unlawful treatment of its Unlimited Tax General Obligation Bonds. Detail about the lawsuit is set forth under "Recovery Litigation -- Public Finance Transactions" below. |
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The Company has net exposure to Jefferson County, Alabama of $681 million as of September 30, 2013. On November 9, 2011, Jefferson County filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. Most of the Company's net Jefferson County exposure relates to $464 million in sewer revenue exposure, of which $192 million is direct and $272 million is assumed reinsurance exposure. The sewer revenue warrants are secured by a pledge of the net revenues of the sewer system. The Bankruptcy Court has affirmed that the net revenues constitute special revenues under Chapter 9. The Company also has assumed exposure of $30 million to warrants that are payable from the County's general fund on a "subject to appropriation" basis. In 2012, the County chose not to make payment under its General Obligation bonds, so the Company has established a projected loss for these warrants as well. The Company's remaining net exposure of $187 million to Jefferson County relates to obligations that are secured by, or payable from, certain taxes that may have the benefit of a statutory lien or a lien on “special revenues” or other collateral. In June 2013, AGM and several other monoline insurers and financial institutions having claims against the County entered into plan support agreements with the County, and in July 2013, the County filed its Chapter 9 plan of adjustment, disclosure statement, motion to approve the disclosure statement and motion to approve solicitation procedures with the Bankruptcy Court. In August 2013, the Bankruptcy Court approved the disclosure statement and related solicitation, balloting and tabulation procedures to be employed in the plan confirmation process. In October 2013, the County completed the plan approval solicitation process and, of the creditors entitled to vote on the plan and inclusive of all voting classes, over $3.9 billion in claims voted to accept the plan and the holders of less than $18 million in claims voted to reject the plan. On November 6, 2013, the County entered into supplements to the various plan support agreements and filed a revised plan of adjustment with the Bankruptcy Court in order to address changes in the municipal finance market, consumption patterns, and actual and projected revenues. The County expects the plan to become effective in December 2013. |
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On June 28, 2012, the City of Stockton, California filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The Company's net exposure to the City's general fund is $119 million, consisting of pension obligation bonds. The Company also had exposure to lease obligation bonds and, as of September 30, 2013, the Company owned all of these bonds which are included in its investment portfolio. As of September 30, 2013, the Company had paid $25 million in net claims. On October 3, 2013, the Company reached a tentative settlement with the City regarding the treatment of the bonds insured by the Company in the City's proposed plan of adjustment. Under the terms of the settlement, the Company will receive title to an office building, the ground lease of which secures the lease revenue bonds, and will also be entitled to certain fixed payments and certain variable payments contingent on the City's revenue growth. The settlement is subject to a number of conditions, including a sales tax increase (which was approved by voters on November 5, 2013), confirmation of a plan of adjustment that implements the terms of the settlement and definitive documentation. Plan confirmation is expected to be completed in 2014. |
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The Company has $155 million of net par exposure to The City of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, of which $92 million is BIG. The Company has paid $17 million in net claims as of September 30, 2013. The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania appointed receiver for the City has filed a fiscal recovery plan in state court that provides for full payment of the Company insured bonds through proceeds of asset sales and contributions by the Company, Dauphin County, Pennsylvania and other creditors. The plan is expected to be implemented in December 2013. |
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The Company has $337 million of net par exposure to the Louisville Arena Authority. The bond proceeds were used to construct the KFC Yum Center, home to the University of Louisville men's and women's basketball teams. Actual revenues available for Debt Service are well below original projections, and under the Company's internal rating scale, the transaction is BIG. |
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During Third Quarter 2013 and as part of a negotiated restructuring, the Company paid off the insured bonds secured by the excess free cash flow of the Foxwoods Casino run by the Mashantucket Pequot Tribe. The Company made cumulative claims payments of $116 million (net of reinsurance) on the insured bonds. In return for participating in the restructuring, the Company received new notes with a principal amount of $145 million with the same seniority as the bonds the Company had insured ("New Pequot Notes"). The Company currently projects full recovery of its claims paid from amounts to be received on the New Pequot Notes. The New Pequot Notes are held as an investment and accounted for as such. |
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The Company projects that its total future expected net loss across its troubled U.S. public finance credits as of September 30, 2013 will be $183 million. As of June 30, 2013 the Company was projecting a net expected loss of $71 million across it troubled U.S. public finance credits. While the deterioration was due to a number of factors, it was attributable primarily to the elimination of the recoverable for claims paid on the bonds secured by cash flow from the Foxwoods Casino upon the receipt of the New Pequot Notes now held in the investment portfolio, along with loss developments in Detroit and Stockton. |
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Certain Selected European Country Transactions |
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The Company insures and reinsures credits with sub-sovereign exposure to various Spanish and Portuguese issuers where a Spanish or Portuguese sovereign default may cause the regions also to default. The Company's gross exposure to these Spanish and Portuguese credits is €450 million and €159 million, respectively and exposure net of reinsurance for Spanish and Portuguese credits is €327 million and €146 million, respectively. The Company rates most of these issuers in the BB category due to the financial condition of Spain and Portugal and their dependence on the sovereign. The Company's Hungary exposure is to infrastructure bonds dependent on payments from Hungarian governmental entities and covered mortgage bonds issued by Hungarian banks. The Company's gross exposure to these Hungarian credits is $673 million and its exposure net of reinsurance is $637 million of which $599 million is rated BIG. The Company estimated net expected losses of $48 million related to these Spanish, Portuguese and Hungarian credits, down from $49 million as of June 30, 2013 largely due to movements in exchange rates, interest rates and timing of projected defaults. Information regarding the Company's exposure to other Selected European Countries may be found under Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, – Economic Exposure to the Selected European Countries. |
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Manufactured Housing |
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The Company insures or reinsures a total of $267 million net par of securities backed by manufactured housing loans, a total of $185 million rated BIG. The Company has expected loss to be paid of $26 million as of September 30, 2013, down from $30 million as of June 30, 2013, due primarily to the higher risk free rates used to discount losses and additional amortization on certain transactions. |
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Infrastructure Finance |
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The Company has insured exposure of approximately $3.1 billion to infrastructure transactions with refinancing risk as to which the Company may need to make claim payments that it did not anticipate paying when the policies were issued; the aggregate amount of the claim payments may be substantial and reimbursement may not occur for an extended time, if at all. These transactions generally involve long-term infrastructure projects that were financed by bonds that mature prior to the expiration of the project concession. While the cash flows from these projects were expected to be sufficient to repay all of the debt over the life of the project concession, in order to pay the principal on the early maturing debt, the Company expected it to be refinanced in the market at or prior to its maturity. Due to market conditions, the Company may have to pay a claim at the maturity of the securities, and then recover its payment from cash flows produced by the project in the future. The Company generally projects that in most scenarios it will be fully reimbursed for such payments. However, the recovery of the payments is uncertain and may take a long time, ranging from 10 to 35 years, depending on the transaction and the performance of the underlying collateral. The Company’s exposure to infrastructure transactions with refinancing risk was reduced during Third Quarter 2013 by the termination of its insurance on A$413 million of infrastructure securities having maturities commencing in 2014. The Company estimates total claims for the remaining two largest transactions with significant refinancing risk, assuming no refinancing, could be $1.8 billion gross before reinsurance and $1.3 billion net after reinsurance; such claims would be payable from 2017 through 2022. This estimate is based on certain assumptions the Company has made as to the performance of the transactions. |
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Puerto Rico |
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The Company insures general obligations of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its instrumentalities. In recent months, investors have expressed concern about Puerto Rico's high debt levels and weak economy. Of the net insured par related to Puerto Rico, $2.1 billion is supported principally by a pledge of the good faith, credit and taxing power of the Commonwealth or by Commonwealth lease rental payments or appropriations. Puerto Rico’s Constitution provides that public debt constitutes a first claim on available Commonwealth resources. Public debt includes general obligation bonds and notes of the Commonwealth and payments required to be made under its guarantees of bonds and notes issued by its public instrumentalities. Of the remaining exposures, a significant portion, $2.9 billion, is secured by dedicated revenues such as special taxes, toll collections and revenues from essential utilities. In aggregate, the Company insures $5.5 billion net par to Puerto Rico obligors. |
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Neither Puerto Rico nor its instrumentalities are eligible debtors under Chapter 9 of the U.S. bankruptcy code. |
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Puerto Rico credits insured by the Company are presently current on their debt service payments, and the Commonwealth has never defaulted on any of its debt payments. Further, 92% of the Company’s exposure is rated investment grade internally and by both Moody’s and S&P, while 8%, substantially all of the balance of the exposure, is rated no more than one-notch below investment grade. |
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For additional information on the Company's exposure to Puerto Rico, please refer "Puerto Rico Exposure" in Note 3, Outstanding Exposure. |
Recovery Litigation |
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RMBS Transactions |
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As of the date of this filing, AGM and AGC have lawsuits pending against a number of providers of representations and warranties in U.S. RMBS transactions insured by them, seeking damages. In all the lawsuits, AGM and AGC have alleged breaches of R&W in respect of the underlying loans in the transactions, and failure to cure or repurchase defective loans identified by AGM and AGC to such persons. In addition, in the lawsuits against DLJ Mortgage Capital, Inc. (“DLJ”) and Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (“Credit Suisse”), AGM and AGC have alleged breaches of contract in procuring falsely inflated shadow ratings (a condition to the issuance by AGM and AGC of its policies) by providing false and misleading information to the rating agencies: |
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• | Deutsche Bank: AGM has sued Deutsche Bank AG affiliates DB Structured Products, Inc. and ACE Securities Corp. in the Supreme Court of the State of New York on the ACE Securities Corp. Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2006-GP1 second lien transaction. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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• | ResCap: AGM has sued GMAC Mortgage, LLC (formerly GMAC Mortgage Corporation; Residential Asset Mortgage Products, Inc.; Ally Bank (formerly GMAC Bank); Residential Funding Company, LLC (formerly Residential Funding Corporation); Residential Capital, LLC (formerly Residential Capital Corporation, "ResCap"); Ally Financial (formerly GMAC, LLC); and Residential Funding Mortgage Securities II, Inc. on the GMAC RFC Home Equity Loan-Backed Notes, Series 2006-HSA3 and GMAC Home Equity Loan-Backed Notes, Series 2004-HE3 second lien transactions. On May 14, 2012, ResCap and several of its affiliates (the “Debtors”) filed for Chapter 11 protection with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court. The automatic stay of Bankruptcy Code Section 362 (a) stays lawsuits (such as the suit brought by AGM) against the Debtors. The Bankruptcy Court approved a plan support agreement which has the support of Ally Financial Inc. and a majority of the Debtors' largest claimants on June 26, 2013 and entered an order approving the disclosure statement regarding the Joint Chapter 11 Plan of Residential Capital, LLC, et al. and establishing procedures for the solicitation process on August 23, 2013. A hearing on confirmation of the plan is scheduled for November 19, 2013. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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• | Credit Suisse: AGM and AGC have sued DLJ and Credit Suisse on first lien U.S. RMBS transactions insured by them. The ones insured by AGM are: CSAB Mortgage-Backed Pass Through Certificates, Series 2006-2; CSAB Mortgage-Backed Pass Through Certificates, Series 2006-3; CSAB Mortgage-Backed Pass Through Certificates, Series 2006-4; and CMSC Mortgage-Backed Pass Through Certificates, Series 2007-3. The ones insured by AGC are: CSAB Mortgage-Backed Pass Through Certificates, Series 2007-1 and TBW Mortgage-Backed Pass Through Certificates, Series 2007-2. On December 6, 2011, DLJ and Credit Suisse filed a motion to dismiss the cause of action asserting breach of the document containing the condition precedent regarding the rating of the securities and claims for recissionary damages and other relief in the complaint, and on October 11, 2012, the Supreme Court of the State of New York granted the motion to dismiss. AGM and AGC have appealed the dismissal of certain of its claims. The causes of action against DLJ for breach of R&W and breach of its repurchase obligations remain. On October 21, 2013, AGM and AGC filed an amended complaint against DLJ and Credit Suisse (and added Credit Suisse First Boston Mortgage Securities Corp. as a defendant), asserting claims of fraud and material misrepresentation in the inducement of an insurance contract, in addition to their existing breach of contract claims. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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On March 26, 2013, AGM filed a lawsuit against RBS Securities Inc., RBS Financial Products Inc. and Financial Asset Securities Corp. (collectively, “RBS”) in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York on the Soundview Home Loan Trust 2007-WMC1 transaction. The complaint alleges that RBS made fraudulent misrepresentations to AGM regarding the quality of the underlying mortgage loans in the transaction and that RBS's misrepresentations induced AGM into issuing a financial guaranty insurance policy in respect of the Class II-A-1 certificates issued in the transaction. On July 19, 2013, AGM amended its complaint to add a claim under Section 3105 of the New York Insurance Law. RBS has filed motions to dismiss AGM's complaint. |
On August 9, 2012, AGM filed a complaint against OneWest Bank, FSB, the servicer of the mortgage loans underlying the HOA1 Transaction and the IndyMac Home Equity Mortgage Loan Asset-Backed Trust, Series 2007-H1 HELOC transaction seeking damages, specific performance and declaratory relief in connection with OneWest failing to properly service the mortgage loans. In August 2013, AGM reached a settlement with OneWest resolving AGM's claims and dismissed the lawsuit. |
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“XXX” Life Insurance Transactions |
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In December 2008, Assured Guaranty (UK) Ltd. (“AGUK”) filed an action against J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. (“JPMIM”), the investment manager in the Orkney Re II transaction, in the Supreme Court of the State of New York alleging that JPMIM engaged in breaches of fiduciary duty, gross negligence and breaches of contract based upon its handling of the investments of Orkney Re II. After AGUK’s claims were dismissed with prejudice in January 2010, AGUK was successful in its subsequent motions and appeals and, as of December 2011, all of AGUK’s claims for breaches of fiduciary duty, gross negligence and contract were reinstated in full. Separately, at the trial court level, discovery is ongoing. |
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Public Finance Transactions |
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In June 2010, AGM sued JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and JPMorgan Securities, Inc. (together, “JPMorgan”), the underwriter of debt issued by Jefferson County, in the Supreme Court of the State of New York alleging that JPMorgan induced AGM to issue its insurance policies in respect of such debt through material and fraudulent misrepresentations and omissions, including concealing that it had secured its position as underwriter and swap provider through bribes to Jefferson County commissioners and others. In December 2010, the court denied JPMorgan’s motion to dismiss. After JPMorgan interpleaded Jefferson County into the lawsuit, the Jefferson County bankruptcy court ruled in April 2013 that the lawsuit against JPMorgan was subject to the automatic stay applicable to Jefferson County. As described above under "Selected U.S. Public Finance Transactions," AGM, JPMorgan and various other financial institutions entered into plan support agreements with Jefferson County in June 2013, which were amended in November 2013, and Jefferson County has filed a plan of adjustment with the bankruptcy court. As a result, the litigation is currently subject to a standstill order. AGM will dismiss the litigation if the Jefferson County bankruptcy plan is confirmed and is continuing its risk remediation efforts for its Jefferson County exposure. |
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In September 2010, AGM, together with TD Bank, National Association and Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company, as trustees, filed a complaint in the Court of Common Pleas of Dauphin County, Pennsylvania against The Harrisburg Authority, The City of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and the Treasurer of the City in connection with certain Resource Recovery Facility bonds and notes issued by The Harrisburg Authority, alleging, among other claims, breach of contract by both The Harrisburg Authority and The City of Harrisburg, and seeking remedies including an order of mandamus compelling the City to satisfy its obligations on the defaulted bonds and notes and the appointment of a receiver for The Harrisburg Authority ("RRF receiver"). The Commonwealth Court of Pennsylvania appointed a receiver for The City of Harrisburg (the “City receiver”) in December 2011. The City receiver filed a motion to intervene in the mandamus action and action for the appointment of the RRF receiver, and asserted that the provisions of Pennsylvania's Financially Distressed Municipalities Act (“Act 47”), which authorized his appointment, preempted AGM's statutory remedies. Subsequently, the City receiver has been negotiating the sale of Harrisburg's resource recovery facility and the lease of its parking system. On August 26, 2013, the City receiver filed a fiscal recovery plan for the City with the Commonwealth Court for its review and approval, and on September 23, 2013, the Commonwealth Court approved the fiscal recovery plan. AGM will dismiss the litigation if the recovery plan is effected. |
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On November 8, 2013, AGM filed a complaint in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Michigan against the City seeking a declaratory judgment with respect to the City’s unlawful treatment of its Unlimited Tax General Obligation Bonds (the “Unlimited Tax Bonds”). The complaint seeks a declaratory judgment and court order establishing that, under Michigan law, the proceeds of ad valorem taxes levied and collected by the City for the sole purpose of repaying the Unlimited Tax Bonds are “restricted funds”, must be segregated and not co-mingled with other funds of the City, and the City is prohibited from using the restricted funds for any purposes other than repaying holders of the Unlimited Tax Bonds. |