The Mosaic Company 8K 2006 Fertilizer and Technology Outlook Conference | MOS 3 Nov 05

The Phosphate Outlook

Michael R. Rahm

Vice President

Market & Economic Analysis

The Mosaic Company

2006 Fertilizer and Technology Outlook Conference

Tampa, Florida

November 3, 2005

Exhibit 99.1

Forward-

Looking

Statements

Certain

statements

contained

herein

constitute

“forward-looking

statements”

that

term

defined

under

the

Private

Securities

Litigation

Reform

Act

1995.

Although

believe

the

assumptions

made

connection

with

the

forward-looking

statements

are

reasonable,

they

involve

known

and

unknown

risks,

uncertainties

and

other

factors

that

may

cause

the

actual

results,

performance

achievements

The

Mosaic

Company,

industry

results

generally,

materially

different

from

those

contemplated

projected,

forecasted,

estimated

budgeted

(whether

expressed

implied)

such

statements.

Factors

affecting

forward-looking

statements

may

include,

among

others,

the

ability

successfully

integrate

the

former

operations

IMC

and

the

Cargill

fertilizer

businesses;

the

ability

fully

realize

the

expected

cost

savings

from

the

business

combination

between

IMC

and

the

Cargill

fertilizer

businesses

within

expected

time

frames

the

ability

develop

and

execute

comprehensive

plans

for

asset

optimization

and/or

rationalization;

the

financial

resources

of,

and

products

available

to,

Mosaic’s

competitors;

the

retention

existing,

and

continued

attraction

additional,

customers

and

key

employees;

changes

the

outlook

the

nitrogen,

phosphate

potash

markets;

changes

the

costs

raw

materials

energy;

the

effect

any

conditions

restrictions

imposed

proposed

with

respect

Mosaic

regulators;

the

effect

legislative

regulatory

changes

jurisdictions

where

Mosaic

operates;

the

ability

Mosaic

obtain

the

regulatory

permits

necessary

for

the

continued

operation

its

businesses

manner

consistent

with

current

practices

anticipated

expansions;

contingencies

environmental

liability

under

U.S.

federal

and

state

and

foreign

environmental

laws

and

regulations;

adverse

weather

conditions

affecting

central

Florida

the

Gulf

Coast

the

United

States,

including

the

impact

potential

hurricanes

excess

rainfall;

the

rating

The

Mosaic

Company’s

and

Mosaic

Global

Holding

Inc.’s

securities

and

the

changes

that

may

occur

the

U.S.

securities

markets;

and

the

factors

described

our

filings

with

the

SEC,

including

our

Quarterly

Report

Form

10-Q

for

the

fiscal

quarter

ended

August

31,

2005.

This

presentation

may

not

distributed,

reproduced,

used

without

the

express

written

consent

The

Mosaic

Company.

Safe Harbor Statement

Offshore Demand

Fundamentals remain positive in India and Pakistan

China becomes self-sufficient

Only a modest recovery is expected in South America

Domestic Demand

Old wives tales and misconceptions

How inelastic is nutrient demand?

How will high energy prices impact demand?

Supply

Hurricanes and plant closures reduce U.S. supply

DAP and MAP are not the whole story

Outline of Presentation

Offshore Demand

World Processed Phosphate Import Demand

Processed Phosphate Import Demand

05E

06F

MMT

Asia

Europe

L Amer

Oceania

Other

Source: Fertecon and Mosaic

World processed phosphate

import demand is projected to

stay flat at 21.4 mmt in 2005.

Gains in Asia have offset

declines in Latin America this

year.

World import demand is

forecast to decline next year

due to further drops in China,

a pull-back in India and just a

modest recovery in Brazil.

Processed phosphate

includes DAP, MAP and TSP

Processed Phosphate Export Supply

05E

06F

MMT

USA

Africa & Mideast

FSU

Other

Source: Fertecon and Mosaic

World Processed Phosphate Export Supply

The U.S. phosphate industry

exported 12 million tonnes of

processed phosphate per year

during the last half of the

1990s. U.S. exports have

dropped to the 9.2 to 9.4 million

tonne range since 2000.

U.S. processed phosphate

exports are projected to

increase about 3% to 9.4 million

tonnes in 2005.

U.S. exports required to meet

demand are forecast to decline

approximately one million

tonnes in 2006.

Processed phosphate

includes DAP, MAP and TSP

World Less China Import Demand by Region

World Less China Processed Phosphate Import Demand by Region

05E

06F

MMT

Asia less China

L Amer

Europe

Oceania

Other

Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic

Import demand outside of

China increased more than

three million tonnes from 16.2

million in 2002 to 19.3 million

in 2004.

We estimate that import

demand will grow to a record

19.7 million tonnes in 2005.

Increases in India and

Pakistan have more than

offset the decline in Brazilian

imports this year.

Excluding China, import

demand in the rest of the

world is forecast to to decline

only slightly in 2006.

Processed phosphate

includes DAP, MAP and TSP

China Net Processed Phosphate Imports

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

05E

06F

Source: IFA and Mosaic

MMT

China has become self-sufficient in phosphate

China is expected to

transition from a small net

importer of processed

phosphates in 2005 to a small

net exporter in 2006.

DAP imports are projected to

equal DAP exports in 2006

and exports of MAP and TSP

are forecast to remain at

current levels.

Processed phosphate

includes DAP, MAP and TSP

China’s Phosphate Strategy

China

Chemical

Industry

Prosperity

Period

Analysis

Forum, official

National

Development

and

Reform

Commission

said,

the

course

Chinese

eleventh

five-year plan,

China

chemical

industry

need

adjust

industry

design,

material

and

drive structure;

to construct a few megaton urea production bases in energy

sources, grain and cotton producing

areas,

phosphate

compound

fertilizer

producing

bases

Yunnan

and Guizhou,

potassium

fertilizer

producing

bases

Qinghai

and

Xinjiang.

The

main

goals are

supply

nitrogenous

fertilizer

and

phosphate

fertilizer

ourselves,

raise

the rate

potassium

fertilizer

self-

support

and

greatly

lower

the

costs

of fertilizer

producing.

China

Fertilizer

BOABC

October 27,

2005

Anhui

phosphate

compound

fertilizer

plants

have

suspended

operation

recently

account

raw

material

shortage.

Thirteen

phosphate

plants

have

recently

appealed

the

central

government

for

macro-control

phosphorite

resources

break regional

restriction.

Anhui

needs

2.6

million

phosphorite

year,

85%

which

relieson

inshipment.

China

Fertilizer

BOABC

October

27,

2005

It is not the oldest or biggest or

most revered players in the crop

nutrition industry who will survive.

Only those who correctly analyze,

boldly embrace and quickly adapt

to change will survive and prosper.

A lesson from Darwin

It is not the strongest of the

species that survive, nor the most

intelligent; it is the one that is most

adaptable to change

Charles Darwin

Theory of Evolution

1859

India and Pakistan Processed Phosphate Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

05E

06F

Source: IFA and Mosaic

MMT

India

Pakistan

A pull-back in India from high levels this year

India and Pakistan are

projected to import more than

3.5 million tonnes of

processed phosphate in 2005.

Continued strong GDP growth

and above normal monsoons

are propelling phosphate

demand and Indian DAP

fabrication is off from a year

ago and far below plan.

Import demand next year is

forecast to decline from the

high levels of 2005 due to an

expected recovery in Indian

DAP fabrication.

Processed phosphate

includes DAP, MAP and TSP

Developments in India

Indian DAP fabrication during the first six

months of the fertilizer year (Apr-Sep) was off

21% or nearly 550,000 tonnes from a year

earlier and was far below plan.

India DAP Fabrication

100

200

300

400

500

600

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

1000 MT

04/05

05/06

Source: FAI

Indian DAP Sales

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998/99

1999/00

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

Fertilizer Year Ending March 31

1000 MT

Indian DAP demand is growing steadily as a

result strong GDP growth and above-average

monsoons during the last few years. DAP

use is projected to top 6.5 million tonnes in

2005/06, up 1.1 million tonnes from 5.4

million tonnes in 2002/03.

Use next fertilizer year is forecast to increase

another 3% or so to 6.7 million tonnes.

No snap-back is expected in Brazil

Brazilian Processed Phosphate Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

05E

06F

Source: ANDA and Mosaic

MMT

TSP

DAP

MAP

Processed phosphate imports

are projected to plunge 40% or

1.4 million tonnes in 2005.

The appreciation of the real,

lower soybean prices, higher

input costs, lack of credit and

a severe drought in southern

Brazil have eroded farm

economics.

No snap-back is expected in

2006 unless the real

depreciates and/or soybean

prices rebound.

Processed phosphate imports

are forecast to increase about

2% in 2006. MAP imports are

projected to increase 200,000

tonnes but TSP imports are

expected to decline 175,000

tonnes as a result of new

capacity at Fosfertil’s Uberaba

complex.

Processed phosphate

includes DAP, MAP and TSP

Brazil Fertilizer Shipments

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1000 MT

2004

2005

Source: ANDA

Signs of the beginning of inventory draws in Brazil

Brazil MAP Imports

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1000 MT

2004

2005

Brazilian shipments of all fertilizer products

were off 28% during the first half of 2005.

Shipments in the key months of August and

September were off only 5% from a year

earlier.

Brazilian MAP imports during the first nine

months of 2005 were off were off 46% or

865,000 tonnes. Imports in August and

September were far below the levels of a year

earlier.

Help from other regions next year

Imports by “Other”

regions also is forecast to

increase to record levels led by the Mideast and

Africa.

Latin American Less Brazil Processed Phosphate Import Demand

05E

06F

MMT

Source: Fertecon and Mosaic

Other Processed Phosphate Import Demand

05E

06F

MMT

Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic

Import demand in other Latin American markets is

projected to climb to record levels led by Argentina,

Mexico and several Central American countries.

Processed phosphate

includes DAP, MAP and TSP

Domestic Demand

Old Wives Tales and Misconceptions

Not True

U.S. Fertilizer Expenditures

05F

Billion $

Source: USDA

Farmers spend the same amount on fertilizer each year

U.S. Fertilizer Expenditures Per Acre

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

05F

$ Acre

Source: USDA

Old Wives Tales and Misconceptions

Prices received by farmers and farm income are low

Demand

Bil Bu

Surplus

$ Bu

Supply

Loan Deficiency Payment

Loan Rate

Market Price

Prior to 1996, the loan rate established a

market price floor (P3). At this level,

farmers produced Q3 and consumers

used Q1. The government (CCC) bought

and stored the surplus (Q3-Q1) in order to

keep the market price at or near P3.

High loan rates resulted in record

government stocks during the mid 1980s

and stimulated production in other parts

of the world.

Old Wives Tales and Misconceptions

Prices received by farmers and farm income are low

Demand

Bil Bu

Surplus

$ Bu

Supply

Loan Deficiency Payment

Loan Rate

Market Price

Commodity programs today still provide

farmers a price floor

called the loan rate

(P3), but the government no longer buys

and stores grain in order to prop up

market prices for competitors worldwide.

Instead, the government allows the

quantity produced (Q3) to go on the

market and lets the market price move to

the level required to clear the market (P1

in this case). Then the government pays

farmers the difference between their

guaranteed minimum price called the

loan rate (P3) and the market price (P1).

This payment is called the loan deficiency

payment or LDP.

This provides farmers a price floor, gets

government out of the grain storage

business and avoids propping up prices

for competitors worldwide. Current loan

rates are $1.95 bu for corn and $5.00 bu

for soybeans

Old Wives Tales and Misconceptions

Prices received by farmers and farm income are low

U.S. Net Cash Farm Income

05F

Bil $

Market

Gov Payments

Source: USDA

USDA estimates that U.S. net

cash farm income surged to a

record $85.5 billion in 2004 as

a result of large crops and

relatively strong grain and

livestock prices.

Estimates for 2005 released in

August show net cash farm

income dropping only slightly

from last year.

Higher government payments

likely will make up most of the

drop in market receipts.

USDA likely will revise down

estimates for 2005 due to the

spike in energy prices and

weaker grain and oilseed

prices.

How inelastic is nutrient demand?

U.S. Nutrient Demand Elasticities for Corn

Short Run

Long Run

Nitrogen

-0.23

-0.48

Phosphorus

-0.02

-0.30

Potassium

-0.16

-0.27

Source: Vroomen and Denbaly 1991.

Percentage Change in Price

Own Price Elasticity =

Percentage Change in Quantity

There are no substitutes for nitrogen, phosphate and potash

A large price change does not impact the profit maximizing

application rate (maximum economic yield or MEY)

Nutrients still account for a relatively small percentage of total

production costs and are a small percentage of total revenue

Moderate declines in P application rates on corn

U.S. Phosphate Application Rates

1988-92 Average = 100

100

105

110

05E

06F

Source: USDA and CBOT

Percent

1.80

2.10

2.40

2.70

3.00

3.30

3.60

$ BU

On Corn

New Crop Corn Price (AMJ Average)

Corn Prices vs. Phosphate Application Rates on Corn

y = 5.3256x + 33.602

= 0.4571

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

2.80

3.00

3.20

3.40

New Crop Corn Prices - AMJ Average ($ Bu)

Data for the last 15 years show no

correlation between phosphate

application rates on corn and

phosphate prices.

Phosphate application rates on corn

are weakly correlated with corn

prices.

This model predicts that at current

new crop (2006) corn prices

phosphate application rates on corn

would total 46 lbs P

per planted

acre. Our forecast uses 44 lbs due

to a spook factor.

Higher energy prices favor soybeans over corn

Estimated Variable Cost for an Iowa Farm

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Source: Iowa State University and Mosaic

$ Acre

Corn

Soybeans

Estimated Revenue after Variable Cost for an Iowa Farm

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Source: Iowa State University and Mosaic

$ Acre

Corn

Soybeans

A modest switch from corn to soybeans is expected

U.S. Planted Acreage

05E

06F

Mil Acres

Corn

Soybeans

All Wheat

Source: USDA and Mosaic

U.S. phosphate use is forecast to decline 5%

U.S. phosphate use in 2005/06

is forecast to decline about 5%

from the estimated level of last

year.

The forecast is based on a

modest shift from corn to

soybeans, a slight increase in

wheat acreage and moderate

declines in phosphate

application rates.

U.S. Phosphate Use

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

05E

06F

Mil Tons P

U.S. Processed Phosphate Domestic Shipments

06F

Fertilizer Year Ending June 30

Mil Tons

DAP

MAP

TSP

U.S. phosphate shipments are forecast to decline 5%

U.S. shipments of processed

phosphate in 2005/06 are

forecast to decline about 5%

from last year.

Projected shipments are near

the low end of the 15-year

range and follow a 3% drop

last year.

Anecdotal evidence indicates

that distribution pipeline

stocks on October 31 likely

were less than average.

Processed phosphate

includes DAP, MAP and TSP

U.S. DAP and MAP Domestic Shipments

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

MIN MAX Range (1994/95-2003/04)

04/05 Actual

3-Yr Avg

Source: TFI and Mosaic

U.S. DAP and MAP Domestic Shipments

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

MIN MAX Range (1995/96-2004/05)

05/06 Actual/Forecast

3-Yr Avg

Source: TFI and Mosaic

U.S. DAP/MAP shipments were down 14% in Q1

DAP and MAP domestic shipments were down 14% during the first quarter of the 2005/06 fertilizer year

(Jul-Sep). September shipments were off sharply due to production losses and logistical

complications following hurricane Katrina as well as heavy export commitments to India and Pakistan.

Shipments are projected to decline 11% during the first half of the fertilizer year due to demand

uncertainties and strong exports. Some U.S. farmers may postpone nutrient application this fall in

order to see where energy and fertilizer prices may go this spring.

Given the expected decline in shipments this fall, movement during Jan- Jun 2006 is projected to

increase about 2% from last year.

Supply

U.S. phosphate production will

decline significantly

U.S. DAP/MAP Production

3,000

3,100

3,200

3,300

3,400

3,500

3,600

3,700

3,800

3,900

4,000

JAS

OND

JFM

AMJ

Source: TFI and Mosaic

1000 MT

2004/05

2005/06 Actual

2005/06 Forecast

The U.S. industry ran at higher rates during the first

quarter of the fertilizer year (JAS) due to large export

commitments this year and greater hurricane losses

last year.

Phosphoric acid production during the JAS quarter

was up 7% and DAP/MAP production was up 6% or

200,000 tonnes from a year ago.

Phosphoric acid production during the OND quarter is

projected to drop 11% or more than 300,000 tonnes

and DAP/MAP production is projected to drop

15% or almost 600,000 tonnes from a year ago due to

hurricane-related losses and anticipated plant

closures in the United States.

Estimates of hurricane-related losses continue to

climb due to sulphur shortages.

U.S. DAP/MAP production in 2005/06 now is projected

to drop almost 5% or more than 750,000 tonnes from

last year.

U.S. Phosphoric Acid Production

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

JAS

OND

JFM

AMJ

Source: TFI and Mosaic

1000 MT P

2004/05

2005/06 Actual

2005/06 Forecast

Large hurricane- related losses coupled with continued strong export shipments are expected to pull stocks

below the low end of the 10-year range this fall.

Stocks are projected to climb during DJF due to a seasonal slowdown in offshore and domestic shipments as

well as a recovery in U.S. production. Stocks are not projected

to balloon to the high levels of last year.

The combination of a seasonal up- tick in domestic shipments beginning in Q1 06, a return of key importers in

Q2 06, and lower production resulting from anticipated plant closures results in a pull-down of stocks in April

and May 2006 to levels comparable to this year.

The drop in supply results in a draw-down in stocks

U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

MIN MAX Range (1994/95-2003/04)

04/05 Actual

3-Yr Avg

Source: TFI and Mosaic

U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

APR

MAY

JUN

MIN MAX Range (1995/96-2004/05)

05/06 Actual

3-Yr Avg

Source: TFI and Mosaic

DAP and MAP are not the whole story

The difference between total acid production and the estimated acid used for high analysis fertilizer production

has increased from 2.2 million tonnes P

in 2000/01 to 3.0 million tonnes in 2004/05 (light green part of bar).

A growing portion of this acid is upgraded to purified products that are used in a variety of industrial and food

applications. Wet process technologies are replacing thermal acid production due to prohibitive energy costs.

In addition, producers are processing more acid into feed phosphate. Growing concerns about the safety of feed

ingredients made from animal by- products are boosting the demand for feed phosphate worldwide.

Phosphoric acid is the most

comprehensive measure of

phosphate production.

After bottoming at 78% of

capacity in 2000/01, the U.S.

phosphoric acid operating rate

has climbed steadily to the mid-

90% range today.

This trend is the result of both

permanent plant closures as well

as increases in acid production.

Acid output has increased to

make more high analysis fertilizer

such as DAP, MAP and TSP, but

more acid also is required to

meet the growing demand for

other uses.

U.S. Phosphoric Acid Production and Operating Rate

06F

Fertilizer Year Ending June 30

MMT P

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

For DAP/MAP/TSP

For Other

Capacity

Operating Rate

The Phosphate Outlook

Michael R. Rahm

Vice President

Market & Economic Analysis

The Mosaic Company

2006 Fertilizer and Technology Outlook Conference

Tampa, Florida

November 3, 2005

Thank You!

The Mosaic Company (MOS) 8-K2006 Fertilizer and Technology Outlook Conference