The Mosaic Company 8K Regulation FD Disclosure | MOS 7 Nov 07

TFI Outlook Conference

November 7, 2007

Tampa, FL

Dr. Michael R. Rahm

Vice President

Market Analysis and Strategic Planning

The Near Term Phosphate Outlook

Exhibit 99

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Safe Harbor Statement

Certain

statements

contained

herein

constitute

“forward-looking

statements”

that

term

defined

under

the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although we believe the assumptions made in

connection with the forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve known and unknown risks,

uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of The

Mosaic Company, or industry results generally, to be materially different from those contemplated or

projected,

forecasted,

estimated

budgeted

(whether

express

implied)

such

statements.

These

risks

and

uncertainties

include

but

are

not

limited

the

predictability

fertilizer,

raw

material

and

energy

markets

subject

competitive

market

pressures;

changes

foreign

currency

and

exchange

rates;

international

trade

risks

including,

but

not

limited

to,

changes

policy

foreign

governments;

changes

environmental

and

other

governmental

regulation;

adverse

weather

conditions

affecting

operations

central Florida or the Gulf Coast of the United States, including potential hurricanes or excess rainfall; actual

costs

closure

the

South

Pierce,

Green

Bay

and

Fort

Green

facilities

differing

from

management’s

current

estimates;

accidents

involving

our

operations,

including

brine

inflows

our

Esterhazy,

Saskatchewan potash mine as well as potential mine fires, floods, explosions or releases of hazardous or

volatile chemicals, as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic

Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those

set forth in the forward-looking statements.

This presentation may not be distributed, reproduced, or used without the express written consent of The

Mosaic Company.

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Topics and Take Aways

Demand prospects look rock solid

The supply/demand balance remains tight during

2007/08 based on our best estimates today

Key swing factors point to more upside than

downside risk

Demand Prospects Look Rock Solid

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Global grain and oilseed stocks will fall again

this year despite a record harvest

Global grain and oilseed stocks

will decline again in 2007/08

despite higher crop prices and

the large increase in planted

area this year.

Production is forecast to

increase 4% to a record 2.02

billion tonnes in 2007, but

global stocks will decline about

28 million tonnes in 2007/08.

Stocks as a percentage of use

will drop to the fifth lowest level

in recent history.

World Less China Grain and Oilseed Stocks

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Mil Tonnes

12%

16%

20%

24%

28%

32%

Percent

Stocks

Percent of Use

Source: USDA

Note that this analysis excludes China due

to the unreliability of USDA’s estimates of

Chinese grain and oilseed stocks.

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

World Less China Grain and Oilseed Use

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

Bil Tonnes

Source: USDA

Demand growth is accelerating

Global grain and oilseed

demand growth is accelerating

due to rock-solid traditional

drivers for food, feed and fiber.

In addition, the exponential

increase in biofuels production in

the United States as well as

developments elsewhere have

provided an octane boost to

grain and oilseed demand.

For example, grain and oilseed

use outside China has grown

2.5% per year or almost 230

million tonnes since 2002. That

compares to a 1.1% per year

growth rate during the previous

five years and a 30 year trend

rate of about 1.8% per year.

Grain Use CAGR

97-02

02-07

1.1% 2.5%

Note that this analysis excludes China due

to the unreliability of USDA’s estimates of

Chinese grain and oilseed use.

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Extraordinary new crop prices

New Crop Wheat Prices

Daily Close June 1 to May 31

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

0601

0731

0929

1128

0127

0328

0527

MM/DD

$ BU

2004N

2007N

2008N

2009N

Source: KCBOT

New crop wheat prices for the

next two years have climbed to

nearly $7.00 per bushel and

reflect the tight fundamentals at

play in the global wheat

market.

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Extraordinary new crop prices

New Crop Corn Prices

Daily Close July 1 to June 30

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

0701

0916

1202

0217

0505

MM/DD

$ BU

2004Z

2007Z

2008Z

2009Z

2010Z

Source: CBOT

New crop corn prices for the

next three years have traded in

the $4.00 per bushel range

since June and reflect the

fundamental strength in the

global corn market.

Farmers could have sold their

2008, 2009 and 2010 corn

crops at more than $4.20 per

bushel based on the CBOT

closing prices on October 31.

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Extraordinary new crop prices

New Crop Soybean Prices

Daily Close July 1 to June 30

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

0701

0916

1202

0217

0505

MM/DD

$ BU

2004X

2007X

2008X

2009X

Source: CBOT

New crop soybean prices for

the next two years moved up to

$9.50 per bushel range and

reflect the fundamental

strength in the global oilseed

market.

The market will closely watch

planting and crop progress in

the Southern Hemisphere

during the next several weeks.

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

More than corn, wheat and soybeans

Palm Oil Future Prices

Daily Close of Nearby Option

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

RM/MT

Source: Kuala Lumpur Exchange

Rice Future Prices

Daily Close of Nearby Option

$ CWT

Source: CBOT

Palm oil traded at an all-time high during the

last week in October.

The price of rice climbed to a 10-year high in

October.

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Optimistic global demand forecasts

IFA estimates that global

phosphate use increased 5.2% or

more than 1.9 million tonnes

in 2006/07.

Demand is forecast to increase

another 3% or 1.2 million tonnes

to just more than 40 million

tonnes P

in 2007/08, the first

time global demand has crossed

the 40 million tonne mark.

World Phosphate Use

25.0

27.5

30.0

32.5

35.0

37.5

40.0

42.5

45.0

Mil Tonnes

Source: IFA July 2007

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Strong demand growth in Brazil and India

Brazil Fertilizer Shipments

MMT

Source: ANDA & Mosaic

India Nutrient Demand

Fertilizer Year Beginning April 1

Mil Tonnes

Nitrogen

Phosphate

Potash

Source: IFA June 2007

Farm economics in India are as strong, if not

stronger, than any other market in the world.

Retail prices of urea, DAP and MOP are

roughly $120, $230 and $110 per tonne,

respectively. Not surprisingly, Indian nutrient

use has increased more than 40% or almost

seven million tonnes during the last five years.

Brazil is back. Total fertilizer shipments are

projected to increase to a record 24.5 million

tonnes in 2007, eclipsing the previous record

by more than 1.5 million tonnes. Shipments

are forecast to grow to 26 million tonnes in

2008. Supply availability could limit growth.

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Impact of the weak dollar

Soybean Prices

Monthly Average of CBOT Daily Nearby Close

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

US$ Bu

Reais Bu

US$ Bu

Brazilian Reais Bu

MAP Prices

c&f Brazil

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

US$ MT

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

Brazil R$ MT

US$

Brazil R$

Source: The Market

A stronger real, however, has cushioned some of the

increases in phosphate prices. For example, the c&f price of

MAP peaked at R757 per tonne in August 2004. That was

the result of a MAP c&f price of $252 per tonne and an

exchange rate of R3.0 per US$. Today the c&f price of MAP

is in the R950 per tonne range or up about 25% from the

peak in 2004. The c&f price of MAP has more than doubled,

but part of the increase was offset by the strengthening of the

real.

A stronger real has offset part of the increase in soybean

prices. The real price of soybeans peaked in early 2004 at just

less than R30 per bushel. In round numbers, that was the

result of $10 per bushel soybeans and an exchange rate of R3

per US$. Today, soybean prices are roughly $10 per bushel,

but the real has strengthened to less than R1.8 per US$.

A key question is whether a CBOT price of $10 per bushel or

R18 per bushel is sufficient to incent Brazilian farmers to grow

soybean crop as large as the market wants this year.

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

We estimate that U.S.

phosphate use increased about

9% in 2006/07 due to the large

increase in corn acreage and a

recovery in application rates.

U.S. demand is forecast to stay

flat in 2007/08 due to a switch

in acreage from corn to

soybeans and wheat and stable

to slightly higher application

rates.

This forecasts assumes U.S.

farmers will plant 88 million

acres of corn, 65 million acres

of all wheat and 69 million

acres of soybeans.

High and stable U.S. phosphate use this year

U.S. Phosphate Use

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

4.50

4.75

5.00

Fertilizer Year Ending June 30

Source: AAPFCO and Mosaic

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Small increases in acreage

coupled with further increases

in application rates are

projected to drive up U.S.

phosphate use to the 5 million

ton range by 2011/12. Demand

is expected to remain relatively

stable at this high level due to

the large amount of corn used

for ethanol production.

Slight upward trend in U.S. phosphate use

U.S. Phosphate Use

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

4.50

4.75

5.00

5.25

5.50

5.75

Fertilizer Year Ending June 30

Mil Tons P

The supply/demand balance remains tight during

2007/08 based on our best estimates today

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Phosphate prices have climbed to

record high levels this year

DAP Prices

Central Florida Rail

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

$ ST

Source: Green Markets

DAP Prices

NOLA Barge

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

$ ST

Source: Green Markets

DAP Prices

fob Tampa Vessel

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

$ MT

Source: Fertecon

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Strong global import demand prospects

World Less China Processed Phosphate Import Demand by Region

MMT

Asia less China

L Amer

Europe

Oceania

Other

Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic

We estimate that

processed phosphate

(DAP/MAP/TSP) import

demand outside of

China will increase 12%

or 2.2 million tonnes in

2007.

Import demand is

projected to increase

another 4% or 850,000

tonnes in 2008.

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

DAP imports are forecast

to decline slightly to 2.6

million tonnes in 2007 and

then increase to about 2.8

million tonnes in 2008.

Indian import demand remains at high levels

Indian Processed Phosphate Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic

MMT

DAP

MAP

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Latin America imports are projected

to increase 28% in 2007

Total processed phosphate

import demand from Latin

America is forecast to

increase 28% or almost 1.5

million tonnes in 2007.

Brazil will account for the

bulk of the increase this

year, but demand in

Argentina and most Central

American countries

remains strong in the face

of record high phosphate

prices.

Import demand is projected

to increase another 4% in

2008.

Latin American Processed Phosphate Imports

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic

MMT

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

TSP

DAP

MAP

% of World Imports

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Brazilian imports are expected to increase 58% or 1.3

million tonnes to 3.6 million tonnes in 2007. That

eclipses the previous peak of 3.5 million tonnes in

2004.

DAP and MAP imports were up 174% and 52%

respectively so far this year. Imports are projected to

increase another 5% or 170,000 tonnes in 2008.

Brazilian Processed Phosphate Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Source: ANDA and Mosaic

MMT

TSP

DAP

MAP

Brazilian imports are forecast

to increase 58% in 2007

Brazil Monthly DAP Imports

100

120

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1000 mt

2006

2007

Source: ANDA & Siacesp

Brazil Monthly MAP Imports

100

150

200

250

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1000 mt

2006

2007

Source: ANDA & Siacesp

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Argentine imports are projected

to increase another 13% in 2007

Argentine Processed Phosphate Imports

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic

MMT

MAP

DAP

TSP

Total processed

phosphate import demand

from Argentina is forecast

to increase 13% or

150,000 tonnes to 1.3

million tonnes in 2007.

Total imports are

projected to increase

another 3% or 40,000

tonnes in 2008.

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

The elimination of the

set aside requirement

for 2008 crops

combined with high

wheat and oilseed

prices is expected to

boost import demand

about 10% or 320,000

tonnes in 2008.

West European Processed Phosphate Imports

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic

MMT

MAP

DAP

TSP

Western European imports are projected

to increase about 320,000 tonnes in 2008

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Aussie demand is expected to rebound from

drought-impacted levels of 2006 and 2007

Australian processed

phosphate imports are

forecast to increase 35%

this year from the

drought-impacted level of

2006.

Assuming more normal

rainfall next year,

processed phosphate

imports are projected to

increase another 28% or

220,000 tonnes from

800,000 tonnes to more

than one million tonnes in

2008.

Australian Processed Phosphate Imports

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic

MMT

MAP

DAP

TSP

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

More exports likely required from U.S.

producers in 2008

Processed phosphate includes DAP, MAP and TSP

Processed Phosphate Export Supply by Region

MMT

USA

Africa & Mideast

FSU

Other

Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic

U.S. processed

phosphate exports

required to meet

projected demand are

forecast to decline to 6.3

million tonnes in 2007.

U.S. processed

phosphate exports are

forecast to increase to

6.8 million tonnes in 2008

due to demand growth

and an expected drop in

Chinese exports in 2008.

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Moroccan processed phosphate exports are

forecast to increase significantly

Processed phosphate

exports are forecast to

increase about 16% in

2007 and 10% in 2008.

The OCP/Fauji JV is

expected to commission a

375,000 tonne P

acid

plant during Q4 2007.

The 375,000 tonne

OCP/Bunge JV acid plant

is expected to start up in

mid-2008.

Moroccan Processed Phosphate Exports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic

MMT

MAP

DAP

TSP

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

But FSU exports are projected to continue to

trend down due to increases in domestic use

FSU rock and

processed phosphate

production are forecast

to stay flat during the

next few years.

Steady growth in

domestic phosphate

demand –

driven by

higher wheat prices –

expected to reduce

export supply in 2007

and beyond.

FSU Processed Phosphate Exports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic

MMT

MAP

DAP

TSP

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

U.S. shipments are projected to increase 8%

U.S. DAP and MAP

shipments rebounded 6%

to 7.1 million tons in

2006/07. However, we

estimate that total

phosphate use increased

at least 9% last year so

some demand was met by

de-stocking the pipeline.

Domestic shipments are

forecast to increase

another 8% to 7.7 million

tons in 2007/08 due to a

slight increase in use and

an empty pipeline at the

end of last year.

U.S. DAP and MAP Domestic Shipments

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

08F

Fertilizer Year Ending June 30

Mil Tons

DAP

MAP

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

U.S. shipments are off to a strong start

U.S. phosphate demand is projected to increase

another 1% in 2007/08.

U.S. DAP and MAP shipments are projected to

increase another 8% to 7.7 million tons in

2007/08.

YTD shipments were up 45% from the low level

a year ago.

U.S. DAP and MAP Domestic Shipments

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

MIN MAX Range (2000/01-2005/06)

06/07 Actual

3-Yr Avg

Source: TFI and Mosaic

U.S. DAP and MAP Domestic Shipments

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

MIN MAX Range (2001/02-2006/07)

07/08 Actual/Forecast

3-Yr Avg

Source: TFI and Mosaic

U.S. DAP and MAP Domestic Shipments

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

MIN MAX Range (1999/00-2004/05)

05/06 Actual

3-Yr Avg

Source: TFI and Mosaic

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

MIN MAX Range (1999/00-2004/05)

05/06 Actual

3-Yr Avg

Source: TFI and Mosaic

U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

MIN MAX Range (2000/01-2005/06)

06/07 Actual

3-Yr Avg

Source: TFI and Mosaic

A tight situation through 2007/08

based on our best estimates today

U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

MIN MAX Range (2001/02-2006/07)

07/08 Actual/Forecast

3-Yr Avg

Source: TFI and Mosaic

Key swing factors point to more upside than

downside risk

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

1. Chinese exports are the

wild card

China Processed Phosphate Exports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Source: IFA and Mosaic

MMT

DAP

MAP

TSP

Chinese processed phosphate

exports are forecast to increase

to 4.4 million tonnes in 2007, up

2.5 million tonnes from 1.9

million in 2006.

China stepped up to fill the gap

between demand and supply

this year, but likely de-stocked

its domestic pipeline in the

process. Decent demand

prospects and an empty

pipeline imply much larger

domestic shipments next year.

High rock and sulphur prices

also are squeezing margins for

small non-integrated producers.

Output from this segment likely

will decline in 2008.

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

DAP demand is expected

to remain strong due to

highly favorable farm

economics.

Indian DAP use is

projected to increase to 7.2

million tonnes in 2007/08,

up from 6.9 million in

2006/07.

Imports have accounted for

all of the growth in DAP

use during the last five

years or so.

2. Indian DAP import demand

India Annual DAP Production and Imports

95/96

97/98

99/00

01/02

03/04

05/06

07/08(F)

Mil Tonnes

Imported

Fabricated

Source: FAI and Mosaic

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

3. Grain prices and nutrient demand

Soybean Price

Daily Close of the CBOT Nearby Futures Contract

$ BU

Source: CBOT

Rice Future Prices

Daily Close of Nearby Option

$ CWT

Source: CBOT

Palm Oil Future Prices

Daily Close of Nearby Option

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

RM/MT

Source: Kuala Lumpur Exchange

Hard Red Winter Wheat Price

Daily Close of the Nearby Futures Contract

$ BU

Source: KCBOT

Market Analysis & Strategic Planning

November 7, 2007

Topics and Take Aways

Demand prospects look rock solid

The supply/demand balance remains tight during

2007/08 based on our best estimates today

Key swing factors point to more upside than

downside risk

TFI Outlook Conference

November 7, 2007

Tampa, FL

Dr. Michael R. Rahm

Vice President

Market Analysis and Strategic Planning

The Near Term Phosphate Outlook

Thank You

The Mosaic Company (MOS) 8-KRegulation FD Disclosure