The Mosaic Company (MOS) 8-K Results of Operations and Financial Condition

Mosaic’s 4   Quarter Fiscal Year 2008

Earnings and Conference Call

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Jim Prokopanko, President and CEO

Mike Rahm, Vice President -

Market Analysis and Strategic Planning

Christine Battist, Director -

Investor Relations

th

Exhibit 99.2

Slide 2

Safe Harbor Statement

This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private

Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.  Such statements include, but are not limited to,

statements about future financial and operating results.  Such statements are based upon the

current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to

significant risks and uncertainties.

These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to

the predictability of fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets subject to

competitive market pressures; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international

trade risks; changes in government policy, including but not limited to governmental activities

to address rising food

and

crop nutrient prices; changes in environmental and other

governmental regulation; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida or

the Gulf Coast of the United States, including potential hurricanes or excess rainfall; actual

costs of asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental

regulation differing from management’s current estimates; accidents and other disruptions

involving Mosaic’s operations, including brine inflows at its Esterhazy, Saskatchewan potash

mine and other  potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events or releases of

hazardous or volatile chemicals, as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to

time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. 

Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.

Slide 3

Financial Highlights

5/31/2008

5/31/2007

5/31/2008

5/31/2007

(In millions, except per share amounts)

Net Sales

$3,466.7

$1,684.4

$9,812.6

$5,773.7

Gross Margin

$1,287.7

$456.2

$3,160.5

$926.1

(% of net sales)

37.1%

27.1%

32.2%

16.0%

Net Earnings

$862.5

$202.6

$2,082.8

$419.7

(% of net sales)

24.9%

12.0%

21.2%

7.3%

Diluted EPS

$1.93

$0.46

$4.67

$0.95

Effective Tax Rate

29.9%

31.3%

26.7%

24.4%

Cash Flow from Operations

$1,037.7

$253.5

$2,546.6

$707.9

Return on Invested Capital

(1)

N/A

N/A

30.2%

8.0%

Three Months Ended

Twelve Months Ended

(1)

See ROIC reconciliation to earnings in addendum

Slide 4

Generated operating cash flow of:

•$1

billion

in

4

quarter

•$2.5 billion in FY 2008

Prepaid $1 billion of long-term debt

Upgraded in June 2008

Initiated a quarterly dividend

Remediated material weakness

Mosaic Goals and Achievements

Generate Cash &

Pay Down Debt

Stockholder Distribution

Strengthened Internal

Controls & Processes

Investment Grade

th

Slide 5

Record phosphate and potash prices

Phosphate and Potash Published Spot Prices

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

$ MT

DAP fob Tampa

MOP c&f Brazil

Source:   Fertecon and ICIS

Slide 6

Extraordinary P&K demand outlook

Global phosphate use is projected to increase

24

percent

or

8.9

million

tonnes

P

2

O

5

from

2006 through 2012.  That is a compound

annual growth rate of 3.1 percent or 120 basis

points higher than the 1.9 percent rate from

1995 to 2005.

Global potash use is forecast to increase 27

percent

or

7.0

million

tonnes

K

O

during

the

same period.  That is a compound annual

growth rate of 3.5 percent or 120 basis points

higher than the 2.3 percent rate from 1995 to

2005.

World Potash Use

17.5

20.0

22.5

25.0

27.5

30.0

32.5

35.0

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

Source:  IFA May 2008

MMT

K   O

2

World Phosphate Use

27.5

30.0

32.5

35.0

37.5

40.0

42.5

45.0

47.5

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

Source:  IFA May 2008

MMT

P

O

2

5

2

Slide 7

Higher input costs but profitable farm economics

Variable Cost for a U.S. Midwest High Yield Farm Operation

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Source:  Iowa State University and Mosaic

$ Acre

Soybeans

Corn Following Soybeans

Corn Following Corn

RAVC for a U.S. Midwest High Yield Farm Operation

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Source:  Iowa State University and Mosaic

$ Acre

Soybeans

Corn Following Soybeans

Corn Following Corn

Despite the sharp increases in variable costs,

farm economics remain very profitable due to

record crop prices.

This analysis estimates revenue after variable

cost (RAVC) for a high-yield farm operation in the

Midwest and assumes the farmer sold 2007, 2008

and 2009 crops at new crop prices on July 25 (i.e.

the 2007 crop was sold at the Dec 2007 contract

price on July 25, 2007 and the 2008 and 2009

crops were sold at new crop prices on July 25,

2008).

Variable costs continue to increase due to higher

diesel fuel, seed, herbicide, crop nutrient and LP

gas prices.

For example, we estimate that the variable cost for

corn following soybeans on a high-yield farm

operation in the Midwest has more than doubled

from less than $250 per acre in 2006 to more than

$500 per acre for the 2009 crop.

Slide 8

The latest USDA statistics released on July 11 show that inventories of the 16 leading

grain and oilseed crops will increase a measly 4.4 million tonnes this year and remain

at low levels throughout the 2008/09 crop year. The supply response during the last

two growing seasons has been good, but not good enough to reverse this

unsustainable trend in global grain and oilseed stocks.

Stopping but not reversing the decline in stocks

World Grain and Oilseed Stocks

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

Mil Tonnes

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

Percent

Stock

Pct of Use

Source: USDA

Slide 9

Advantage for integrated phosphate producers

DAP Raw Materials Cost

Mosaic vs. a Non-Integrated Producer

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

2007 FY Mosaic

2007 Non-

Integrated

Current Mosaic

Current Non-

Integrated

Source:  Fertecon and Mosaic

$ MT DAP

Rock

Sulphur

Ammonia

(1)

Calculations based off of July spot pricing for raw materials

(1)

(1)

Slide 10

Phosphate: 2H Chinese exports a key factor

China Monthly DAP and MAP Exports

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1000 MT

2007

2008

Source: China Customs

China DAP/MAP Phosphate Exports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

Source:  IFA and Mosaic

MMT

DAP

MAP

China

exported

3.9

million

tonnes

of

DAP/MAP

in

2007,

up

224%

or

2.7

million

tonnes

from

2006

We

project

that

Chinese

DAP/MAP

exports

will

drop

to

2.3

million

tonnes

this

year

as

a

result

of

the

135% export tax imposed on April 20 and other efforts to increase supplies to domestic farmers

The latest statistics from China Customs show that DAP/MAP exports during the first six months of 2008

totaled

1.4

million

tonnes

--

about

the

same

as

a

year

earlier.

If our forecast of 2.3 million tonnes for the entire year is on target, China will export 900,000 tonnes

during

the

last

half

of

this

year

compared

to

2.5

million

tonnes

during

the

last

half

of

2007

Slide 11

We project that Chinese potash imports will decline to 6.4 million tonnes KCL in 2008

The latest China Custom statistics show that imports during the first six months of 2008 declined 51%

to just 2.4 million tonnes KCL due to the delays in settling 2008 contracts

The sharp drop in imports this year coupled with strong demand prospects is expected to deplete

domestic pipeline stocks by year end

More normal Chinese shipments for the rest of this year, timely settlements of 2009 contracts (at or

near record volumes) and continued strong demand in all other markets are expected to keep the

potash supply/demand balance extremely tight throughout 2009

Potash: Chinese imports to add fuel to the fire

China Monthly MOP Imports

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1000 MT

2007

2008

Source: China Customs

China Net Potash Imports

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

Source:  China Customs and Mosaic

MMT KCL

Slide 12

Crop Nutrients Have Never Looked So Good

Focus on P&K

Potash capacity expansions

Phosphates de-bottlenecking

Sale of Saskferco

Financial Guidance

(a) Contingent upon sourcing an adequate supply of sulfur, high operating rates, and restarting certain previously indefinitely closed phosphoric and sulfuric acid production in the second half of

the fiscal year.

(b)

Assumes,

among

other

things,

operating

the

potash

facilities

at

high

operating

rates

and

continued

successful

management

of

the

brine

inflow

at

the

Esterhazy

mine.

(c) Assumes farmer economics remain robust and that management has accurately estimated the mix of forward versus spot sales.

(d) Assumes management’s estimate projected selling prices and volumes, capital spending and foreign currency exchange rates are accurate.

1st Qtr FY 2009

FY 2009

Phosphate

Sales Volume

9.0 -

9.4 million tonnes

(a)

DAP Selling Price

$1,020 -

$1,080 / tonne

(c)

Potash

Sales Volume

8.2 -

8.6 million tonnes

(b)

MOP Selling Price

$460 -

$510 / tonne

(c)

Canadian Resource Taxes and Royalties

$700 million -

$1.0 billion

(d)

Capital Spending

$900 million -

$1.1 billion

SG&A

$360 -

$390 million

Effective Tax Rate

Low to mid 30%

Mosaic’s 4   Quarter Fiscal Year 2008

Earnings and Conference Call

th

15

The Mosaic Company 

(unaudited)

Selected Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Reconciliations

Return on Invested Capital

Our return on invested capital (“ROIC”) is a measure of value creation and how effectively we allocate capital in our

core operations.  We believe ROIC is a metric that is most closely correlated with stockholder value.  We also use

ROIC as part of our initial capital spending and potential acquisition review processes to ensure that each capital

dollar spent achieves a certain hurdle rate of return.   

There are limitations in the use of ROIC due to the subjective nature of items excluded by management in

calculating ROIC. This non-GAAP measure is provided as supplemental information and should not be considered

in lieu of the GAAP measures. Management uses ROIC to measure how effectively we are allocating capital, and

therefore, management believes this information is useful to investors.

We define ROIC as follows: 

Numerator (net operating profit after taxes):

+

Operating earnings 

- Taxes at effective tax rate on operating earnings

+ Equity in net earnings of nonconsolidated companies

- Minority interest in consolidated companies

= Net operating profit after taxes

Denominator (average invested capital, trailing five point average):

+ Total Assets

Less Non-interest bearing liabilities:

Accounts payable

Trade accounts payable due to Cargill, Inc. and affiliates

Cargill prepayments and accrued liabilities

Accrued liabilities

Deferred income tax liabilities - current

Deferred income tax liabilities – noncurrent

       Other noncurrent liabilities

Total non-interest bearing liabilities

-

Minority interest in consolidated companies

= Invested capital

ROIC:

Net operating profit after taxes / Average invested capital

We had ROIC of 30.2% and 8.0% for fiscal 2008 and 2007, respectively. The reconciliation to the most comparable

U.S. GAAP measurements for the numerator and denominator are as follows (in millions and unaudited): 

16

2008

2007

Operating earnings

2,806.7

$  

616.3

$    

- Taxes at effective tax rate on operating

earnings

(a)

749.4

150.4

+ Equity in net earnings of

nonconsolidated companies

124.0

41.3

- Minority interest in consolidated

subsidiaries

8.7

3.9

Net operating profit after taxes

2,172.6

$  

503.3

$    

Years ended May 31

(a)

  Operating earnings

2,806.7

$  

616.3

$    

     Tax Rate

26.7%

24.4%

     Tax effect on operating earnings

749.4

$    

150.4

$    

May 31

May 31

2008

2007

Total assets

10,118.2

$      

8,801.7

$      

Less non-interest bearing liabilities:

Accounts payable

569.2

554.3

Trade accounts payable due to

Cargill, Inc. and affiliates

12.6

29.4

Cargill prepayments and

accrued liabilities

41.6

4.5

Accrued liabilities

610.3

265.9

Accrued income taxes

87.6

112.9

Deferred income tax liabilities -

current

33.2

7.1

Deferred income tax liabilities -

noncurrent

551.0

629.1

Other noncurrent liabilities

1,001.8

923.6

Total non-interest bearing liabilities

2,907.2

2,526.8

Less:  Minority interest in

consolidated subsidiaries

24.7

22.7

Invested capital

7,186.4

$        

6,252.2

$      

2008

2007

ROIC

30.2%

8.0%

May 31

Average invested capital as o

Years ended

We have presented above ROIC, which is a non-GAAP

financial measure. Generally, non-GAAP financial

measures are supplemental numerical measures of a

company's performance, financial position or cash flows

that either exclude or include amounts that are not

normally excluded or included in the most directly

comparable measure calculated and presented in

accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting

principles ("GAAP").  ROIC is not a measure of financial

performance under GAAP. Because not all companies

use identical calculations, our calculation of ROIC may not

be comparable to other similarly titled measures

presented by other companies. In evaluating these

measures, investors should consider that our

methodology in calculating such measures may differ from

that used by other companies.