The Mosaic Company (MOS) 8-K Regulation FD Disclosure

Mosaic’s Role:

More Essential Than Ever

Mosaic’s Role:

More Essential Than Ever

Larry Stranghoener

Executive Vice President and CFO

November 4, 2008

Exhibit 99

1

Good morning everyone.

Thank you all for attending and I’d like to express my gratitude to Per Haagensen at

Fondsfinans for this opportunity to meet with you and share our accomplishments of the

past couple years and our viewpoints about our future.

2

Safe Harbor Statement

Certain

statements

contained

herein

constitute

“forward-looking

statements”

as

that

term

is

defined

under

the

Private

Securities

Litigation

Reform

Act

of

1995.

Although

we

believe

the

assumptions

made

in

connection

with

the

forward-looking

statements

are

reasonable,

they

do

involve

known

and

unknown

risks,

uncertainties

and

other

factors

that

may

cause

the

actual

results,

performance

or

achievements

of

The

Mosaic

Company,

or

industry

results

generally,

to

be

materially

different

from

those

contemplated

or

projected,

forecasted,

estimated

or

budgeted

(whether

express

or

implied)

by

such

statements.

These

risks

and

uncertainties

include

but

are

not

limited

to

the

predictability

of

fertilizer,

raw

material

and

energy

markets

subject

to

competitive

market

pressures;

changes

in

foreign

currency

and

exchange

rates;

international

trade

risks

including,

but

not

limited

to,

changes

in

policy

by

foreign

governments;

changes

in

environmental

and

other

governmental

regulation;

adverse

weather

conditions

affecting

operations

in

central

Florida

or

the

Gulf

Coast

of

the

United

States,

including

potential

hurricanes

or

excess

rainfall;

actual

costs

of

closure

of

the

South

Pierce,

Green

Bay

and

Fort

Green

facilities

differing

from

management’s

current

estimates;

accidents

involving

Mosaic’s

operations,

including

brine

inflows

at

its

Esterhazy,

Saskatchewan

potash

mine

as

well

as

potential

mine

fires,

floods,

explosions

or

releases

of

hazardous

or

volatile

chemicals,

as

well

as

other

risks

and

uncertainties

reported

from

time

to

time

in

The

Mosaic

Company’s

reports

filed

with

the

Securities

and

Exchange

Commission.

Actual

results

may

differ

from

those

set

forth

in

the

forward-looking

statements.

This

presentation

may

not

be

distributed,

reproduced,

or

used

without

the

express

written

consent

of

The

Mosaic

Company.

2

Before I proceed, I need to remind you that our presentation contains forward-looking

statements. 

The remarks I make are based on information and understandings we believe to be accurate as

of today’s date –

November 4th, 2008.

Actual results are likely to differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.

3

Mosaic: Who We Are

Mission:

We

help

the

world

grow

the

food

it

needs.

Global

producer

of

crop

nutrients

#1

Phosphate

producer

in

the

world

#3

Potash

producer

in

the

world

Vertically

integrated 

Mining,

production,

distribution

Financial

highlights

for

last

12

months

ending

August

31,

2008

Revenue

of

$12.1

billion

and

net

income

of

$3.0

billion

3

Unquestionably

we

are

facing

historic

events

in

both

the

financial

and

commodity

markets,

with

much

yet

to

be

sorted

out.

That

said,

we

are

staying

focused

and

true

to

our

mission

of

helping

to

feed

the

world.  

We

believe

we

are

well

positioned

financially,

strategically

and

operationally

to

serve

our

customers

worldwide

and

execute

on

the

strong,

long-term

fundamentals

of

the

agricultural

sector.

Let

me

first

share

some

background

about

The

Mosaic

Company. 

We

are

the

largest

producer

of

phosphate

and

potash

in

the

world.

In

fiscal

2008,

we

produced

more

than

17

million

metric

tonnes

of

finished

phosphate

and

potash

products

for

our

crop

nutrient,

animal

feed

and

industrial

customers

around

the

globe.

No

other

private

or

state-owned

company

came

close

to

that

total. 

Our

phosphate

business

is

fully

integrated

from

our

mines

to

our

concentrate

plants.

The

competitive

advantage

of

owning

our

rock

supply

in

Central

Florida

makes

us

stand

apart

from

some

competitors.   

Our

potash

position

is

just

as

strong

and

we

are

expanding

our

existing

mine

capacity

to

meet

growing

demand.  

We

are

a

vertically

integrated

enterprise.

Our

operations

encompass

not

only

mining

and

production,

but

also

a

global

distribution

network

that

enables

us

to

reach

every

major

agricultural

region

in

the

world.

We

have

produced

great

financial

results

over

the

past

12

months

and

expect

continued

success

in

future

years

–

as

it’s

a

great

time

to

be

in

agriculture. 

4

Leading Global Potash Producer

Mosaic potash production

market share

14% Globally

38% North America

Five mines

Low-cost & competitive

industry position

World

capacity

approximates

73

million

tonnes

(all

potash

products)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Potash Capacity

4

Let’s

turn

to

one

of

our

core

businesses

–

potash.

Simply

put,

it’s

an

exceptional

business. 

Potash

is

produced

in

only

12

countries

in

the

world

and

agricultural

giants

such

as

China,

India

and

Brazil

are

all

import

dependent.

Today,

Mosaic

is

one

of

the

world’s

top

producers

of

potash

with

an

estimated

14%

of

global

market

share

at

our

five

mine

sites

across

North

America. 

Furthermore,

because

of

historically

low

application

rates

in

developing

countries,

potash

is

enjoying

strong

demand

in

these

countries,

where

its

nutritional

value

is

more

critical

than

ever

to

optimizing

crop

yields.  

With

these

dynamics,

it’s

not

surprising

that

the

Potash

business

is

an

exceptional

performer

for

Mosaic,

contributing

strong

margins

and

cash

flow. 

5

We See Tonnes More in Potash

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

The

projected

annual

capacity

includes

approximately

1.3

million

tonnes

(as

shaded

in

blue)

that

we

currently

produce

under

a

third

party

tolling

agreement

at

Esterhazy.

This

agreement

will

expire

within

the

next

few

years

and

this

capacity

will

revert

to

Mosaic.

Growth

from 10.4

to 15.5

million

tonnes

5

We

announced

expansions

to

our

existing

Saskatchewan

potash

mines

as

one

of

our

key

strategic

priorities

this

past

April.

Upon

completion

of

these

expansions,

we

estimate

our

total

annual

potash

capacity

will

approximate

15.5

million

metric

tonnes.

This

amount

does

not

include

the

1.3

million

metric

tonnes

that

will

revert

to

us

upon

expiration

of

a

third

party

tolling

agreement

in

the

next

couple

of

years. 

Expansion

economics

are

on

our

side.

Our

brownfield

projects

can

be

constructed

at

a

capital

cost

that

is

significantly

lower

than

a

greenfield

project.

And,

should

potash

demand

change,

the

pace

of

our

expansions

also

can

be

modified. 

6

Key Drivers for MOP Pricing

Near-Term Drivers:

China contract

India demand

Supply constraints

Brazil slowdown

Buyer sentiment

MOP Prices

Quarter Averages of Weekly Published Spot MOP c&f Brazil

100

250

400

550

700

850

1,000

1,150

Q1 07

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 08

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 09

$ tonne

Source: ICIS

6

The dramatic potash price increases of the past 12-15 months are the result of surging demand. 

Producers have struggled to keep up, and producer inventories remain at historic lows.  Upward

price

momentum

has

slowed

in

the

recent

past,

however,

and

future

price

movements

will

be

determined by several factors, including:

The timing and terms of the annual Chinese potash contracts

Brazilian demand, which is currently soft

Indian demand, which has been strong

Supply constraints, such as the duration of a competitor’s ongoing labor dispute

Changes in overall buyer sentiment, which has been colored recently by financial market turmoil.

While any of these could swing one way or the other, we think potash fundamentals generally

remain excellent, and pricing and margins will continue to be very attractive.

7

World’s Top Phosphate Producer

World’s

largest

capacity

of

phosphate

fertilizer

Mosaic

phosphate

production

market

share

15% Globally

59% North America

World scale & efficient

operations

World

capacity

approximates

71

million

tonnes

(DAP/MAP/TSP)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Phosphate

Fertilizer

Capacity

7

Mosaic’s

other

core

business

is

phosphates.

This

business

possesses

its

own

attractive

attributes

due

to

its

sheer

size

and

the

benefits

of

vertical

integration

–

our

owned

rock

reserves

-

granulation

capacity

–

and

a

world

wide

supply

chain

and

distribution

network.

Our

rock

reserves

provide

us

with

a

significant

competitive

advantage

over

non-integrated

producers.

These

producers,

who

supply

nearly

a

third

of

world

demand,

must

purchase

rock

or

phosphoric

acid

to

manufacture

their

finished

phosphate

products.

As

a

result,

their

input

costs

are

significantly

higher

than

those

of

Mosaic.  

We

produce

about

15%

of

the

world’s

phosphate

fertilizer

and

account

for

more

than

half

of

North

American

phosphate

fertilizer

production.

The

size

and

scale

of

our

business

produces

significant

cost

efficiencies. 

8

Key Drivers for DAP Pricing

Near-Term Drivers:

Pipeline inventory

China exports

India demand

Brazil slowdown

Raw materials

Buyer sentiment

DAP Prices

Quarter Averages of Weekly Published Spot DAP fob Tampa

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Q1 07

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 08

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 09

$ tonne

Source: Fertecon

8

DAP

prices

have

trailed

off

from

historically

high

levels

after

sharp

run-up

earlier

this

year.

These

price

movements

were

due

to

the

combination

of

several

demand-pull

and

cost-push

factors.  

DAP

selling

prices

have

come

under

pressure

of

late

due

to

higher

pipeline

inventory

levels

and

the

sharp

decline

in

raw

material

costs.

The

inventory

build-up

will

cause

our

second

fiscal

quarter

phosphate

volumes

to

decline

500,000

to

1,000,0000

tonnes

versus

last

year’s

shipments

of

2.3

million

tonnes,

as

previously

disclosed. 

The

outlook

for

DAP

selling

prices

hinges

on

several

factors

including

the

timely

drawdown

of

pipeline

inventory

following

the

fall

harvest,

raw

material

costs

trends,

China

export

trends

and

demand

trends

in

India

–

which

have

been

generally

strong

–

and

in

Brazil

–

which

have

been

weak.

And,

as

with

potash,

buyer

sentiment

will

also

play

a

role,

with

much

focus

on

overall

grain

prices. 

9

Attractive Phosphate Market Margins

DAP Market Margin

Quarter Averages Calculated from Weekly Published Spot Prices

for a Central Florida Plant

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Q1 07

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 08

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 09

$ ton

Source: Green Markets, Fertecon, Mosaic

9

It

is

important

to

note

that

price

tells

only

half

the

story

in

phosphates.

Equally

important

are

raw

material

costs,

primarily

sulfur

and

ammonia,

and

phosphate

rock.

Costs

for

sulfur,

ammonia

and

rock

had

escalated

dramatically

over

the

past

year

as

demand

for

these

materials

surged

and

natural

gas

prices

increased.

The

combination

of

these

high

raw

material

costs

and

overall

demand

for

phosphates

drove

up

phosphate

selling

prices.

As

prices

increased

at

a

faster

pace

than

costs,

the

so-called

market

margin

–

the

difference

between

the

DAP

price

and

raw

material

costs

–

climbed,

as

shown

on

this

chart.  

Recently,

the

cost

for

rock,

sulfur

and

ammonia

have

declined.

In

turn

this

will

likely

reduce

phosphate

selling

prices.

Note,

however,

that

we

can

produce

excellent

margins

even

if

the

price

of

DAP

declines.

The

one

caveat

is

that

phosphate

margins for the second quarter ending November 30,

2008 will

be

pressured

by

the

high sulfur

and

ammonia

costs

inventoried

in

product

we

are

currently

shipping.

Beyond

this

quarter

we

expect to capture

the

benefit

of

substantially

lower

costs.  

10

Capitalizing on Our Global Reach

Offshore

assets

aligned

with

global

demand

Canada

4 Mines

United States

7 Mines

4 Phosphate Plants

Argentina

1 Warehouse & Blender

1 Production/Warehouse

Brazil

7 Warehouse & Blender

2 Production/Warehouse

China

2 Warehouse & Blender

2 Production/Warehouse

Thailand

1 Warehouse &

Blender

India

1 Warehouse

10

Our

North

American

based

Phosphate

and

Potash

businesses

are

bolstered

by

our

production

assets

and

distribution

network

in

prime

growth

regions,

such

as

Asia

and

Latin

America.

We

have

agronomists,

sales

teams,

and

committed

staff

with

the

operational

expertise

that

know

how

to

serve

customers

and

run

our

supply

chains

and

plants.

These

Offshore

enterprises

produce

solid

financial

results

and

give

us

a

chance

to

see

the

changes

and

trends

in

the

industry

first

hand.

11

Strategic Focus

Focus

on

Potash

and

Phosphate

Grow

Potash

Strengthen

Phosphate

Expand

Offshore

distribution

Exit

Nitrogen

business

Maintain

a

strong

balance

sheet

Deliver

value

for

shareholders

11

Our

focus

on

key

strategic

priorities

will,

we

believe,

produce

outstanding

results

for

our

shareholders.

We

plan

to

focus

on

our

core

businesses

–

potash

and

phosphates.

We

plan

to

grow

our

potash

business

through

our

previously

announced

expansions.

As

noted,

this

is

an

excellent

business

and

we

have

a

strong

foundation

to

build

upon.  

We

plan

to

grow

opportunistically

in

phosphates.

We

will

strengthen

our

phosphate

business

through

investments

that

will

result

in

added

efficiencies

and

higher

productivity

at

our

plants

and

mines.

We

are

also

seeking

additional

rock

sources

outside

of

North

America.

Offshore,

we

are

exploring

initiatives

to

enhance

our

presence

in

key

growth

regions

of

the

world,

in

alignment

with

our

production

capabilities. 

And

recently,

we

completed

the

sale

of

our

nitrogen

assets,

which

were

not

strategic

for

us,

providing

us

proceeds

to

reinvest

in

our

core

businesses.  

Our

growth

strategies

are

well

underway,

supported

by

strong

cash

flow

and

an

excellent

balance

sheet.

12

Continued

cash

flow

generation

Strong

balance

sheet

Capital

expenditures

Shareholder

distribution

policy

Cash Allocation Priorities

12

Cash

flow

has

been

very

strong,

allowing

us

to

fund

our

capital

expenditures

and

investment

needs

even

as

we

begin

returning

cash

to

shareholders

with

dividends.

We

will

consider

additional

shareholder

distributions

as

we

build

excess

cash. 

Clearly,

liquidity

is

king

right

now,

and

our

strong

focus

on

building

cash

and

a

fortress

balance

sheet

is

serving

us

well.

You

can

expect

us

to

maintain

our

disciplined

approach

to

liquidity

management

and

cash

allocation

decisions.  

Market Outlook

Market Outlook

14

Growing Global Affluence + Fuel

China:

Middle class

growth from 130

million to

690 million

by 2025

India:

Middle class

growth from 50

million in 2008

to 580 million

by 2025

USA:

Ethanol growth

to 15 billion

gallons

by 2015

The 2008 mandate for

ethanol is 9 billion gallons

Source: McKinsey

14

Now

let

me

shift

to

the

outlook

for

our

business.

The

fundamental

demand

driver

for

our

business

is

population

growth,

especially

the

growth

of

the

middle

class

in

developing

economies.  

Strong

economic

growth

in

a

number

of

rapidly

developing

countries

is

creating

a

large

and

increasingly

affluent

middle

class

who

demand

more

protein-rich

and

grain-intensive

diets

that

include

meat

and

dairy

products.

GDP

growth

in

key

countries

such

as

China

and

India

is

robust.

Despite

the

recent

financial

turmoil,

economies

of

both

these

countries

are

expected

to

grow

at

about

9%

and

7%

per

year,

respectively.

The

middle

class

in

China

and

India

is

projected

to

increase

by

1.1

billion

people

between

2005

and

2025.

This

will

result

in

a

systemic

change

in

grain

and

oilseed

demand

that

we

have

never

experienced

till

now.

We

are

convinced

this

will

have

a

lasting

impact

on

demand

for

grains.

The

growing

use

of

biofuels

is

also

contributing

to

increased

grain

and

oilseed

demand.

We

estimate

that

biofuels

account

for

about

5

-

6%

of

world

grain

and

oilseed

use

today.

Biofuels

are

projected

to

account

for

roughly

6

-

7%

of

world

grain

and

oilseed

use

by

2015.

15

Growing Grain & Oilseed Use

World Grain and Oilseed Use

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

05

Source:  USDA and Mosaic

Mil Tonnes

Actual

Actual for US Ethanol

Forecast

Forecast for U.S. Ethanol

15

Combine

the

boost

from

biofuels

with

the

growth

in

the

global

middle

class

and

you

get

growing

and

sustainable

global

demand

for

grain

and

oilseeds.

According

to

the

USDA

estimates,

global

grain

and

oilseed

demand

is

increasing

2.5

percent

per

year

–

twice

the

historical

rate.

In

fact

there

have

only

been

3

years

since

the

1970s

that

global

grain

and

oilseed

use

decreased

-

-

that

was

1974,

1988

and

1995.

In

all

three

of

these

years,

this

resulted

from

low

production

due

to

poor

weather. 

Another

point

of

reference

is

that

grain

and

oilseed

demand

increased

in

1981,

1982

and

1991

when

the

US

was

in

a

recession

and

despite

a

decrease

in

per

capita

GDP.

We

believe

this

point

is

compelling

and

indicates

that

the

world

does

not

get

less

hungry,

even

in

economic

downturns.

And,

biofuel

mandates

only

add

pressure

to

produce

still

more

grain

and

oilseeds.

16

Record Crop Needed in 2009

World Grain and Oilseed Stocks

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

99/00

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

L

09/10

M

09/10

H

Mil Tonnes

10%

13%

16%

19%

22%

25%

28%

31%

34%

Percent

Stocks

Percent of Use

Source: USDA and Mosaic (for 09/10 estimates)

2009/10 Scenario Assumptions

Low

Medium

High

Increase in Harvested Area (Mil HA)

6.7

6.7

6.7

Yield (Deviation from 10-Year Trend)

Largest Negative

0

Largest Positive

Demand Growth

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

16

Farmers

have

responded

to

grain

and

oil

seed

demand

by

growing

bin-busting

crops

during

the

last

two

years.

Yet,

this

has

barely

moved

the

needle

on

the

gauge

measuring

overall

grain

and

oilseed

stocks.

You

can

see

from

the

cross

hatched

bar

that

inventories

are

projected

to

increase

this

year

but

stocks

as

a

percentage

of

use

are

forecasted

to

only

inch

up

ever

so

slightly.  

Our

analysis

indicates

that

another

bumper

crop

is

required

next

year

to

meet

the

demands

for

food

and

fuel

as

well

as

to

build

stocks

to

more

secure

levels.

That

means

farmers

will

need

to

plant

more

area

and

intensify

cropping

practices

in

order

to

increase

yields.  

The

three

bars

on

the

right

of

this

chart

illustrate

the

potential

outcomes

for

low,

medium

and

high

production-and-use

scenarios

in

2009.

Note that first,

trend-line

yields

next

year

are

not

good

enough

to

meet

projected

demand,

let

alone

build

stocks

to secure

levels.

In

fact,

under

the

medium

yield

scenario,

global

grain

and

oilseed

stocks

decline

19 million

tonnes

and

stocks

as

a

percentage

of

use

drops

to

the

lowest

percentage

since

1973/74.

17

Accelerating Nutrient Demand

World Nutrient Use

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

Source:  IFA May 2008

Mil Tonnes

17

All

of

these

factors

point

to

increasing

demand

for

crop

nutrients.

Prospects

continue

to

look

strong

for

crop

nutrients

given

the

need

to

plant

more

area

and

increase

crop

yields.   

Here are the

latest

statistics

published

by

the

International

Fertilizer

Association

in

May

2008. While

the projections will likely be revised downward in light of current market conditions, we believe the

long term

outlook remains positive. In the near term, various industry participants, including Mosaic,

have

announced

production

cutbacks

(as

noted

earlier)

to

control

inventory

levels.

18

Crop Prices at Respectable Levels

Crop Prices

Quarter Averages of the Daily Closing of Nearby Options

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

Q1

05

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

06

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

07

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

08

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

09

$ bushel

Corn

Soybean

Wheat

Source: CBOT and KCBOT

18

Our

analysis

indicates

that

the

agricultural

commodity

markets

will

have

to

price

in

this

need

for

more

area

and

higher

yields

in

2009.

Futures prices

for

2009

--

while

down

from

the

peaks

earlier

this

summer

and

hit

hard

these

past

couple

weeks--

still

remain

at

respectable

levels

with

new

crop

soybean,

wheat

and

corn

prices

trading

in the

$9,

$6

and

$4

per

bushel

range,

respectively

and,

in

fact

these

prices

have

rallied

in

recent days.

At these

prices

farm

economics

remain very attractive. 

19

Crop Nutrients Remain Essential

Continuing

grain

&

oilseed

demand

growth

Low

stock

to

use

ratios

Maximum

yields

required

Attractive

farmer

economics

19

While

market

and

economic

factors

make

crop

nutrients

a

great

investment,

the

low

grain

and

oil

seed stocks

make

crop

nutrients

essential.

Markets

are

telling

farmers

around

the

world

to

increase

crop

production

to

meet

accelerating

demand

growth.

Crop

nutrients

are

part

of

the

yield

solution. 

Agronomists

estimate

that

commercial

crop

nutrients

directly

account

for

40%

to

60%

of

crop

yields.

The

optimum

use

of

crop

nutrients

in

a

high-yield

cropping

system

is

key

to

increasing

agricultural

productivity

growth.

20

Fundamentals are Positive

Unprecedented

global

demand

for

food,

feed

and

fuel

Crop

nutrient

outlook

remains

positive

Mosaic

well

positioned

to

meet

demand

20

To

sum

up,

it’s

a

great

time

to

be

in

our

business.

We

serve

an

ever

more

important

role

to

help

meet

the

world’s

growing

demand

for

food

and

fuel.

In

closing,

I

want

to

emphasize

four

key

points.

First,

agricultural

fundamentals

remain

positive

due

to

strong

global

demand

for

food,

fuel

and

fiber. 

Second,

the

crop

nutrient

outlook

remains

positive,

despite

short-term

disruptions,

due

to

favorable

supply

and

demand

fundamentals.

Third,

Mosaic

is

well-positioned

in

this

industry

as

the

largest

P&K

company,

with

sizable,

vertically

integrated

operations

and

an

enviable

global

footprint.  

Lastly,

we

are

certainly

aware

of

the

instability

in

global

financial

markets

but

are

not

allowing

this

to

distract

us

from

our

primary

goals

of

serving

our

customers

well,

engaging

all

of

our

employees

in

the

execution

of

our

strategy,

and

generating

strong

returns

for

our

shareholders.

You

can

count

on

us

to

maintain

our

focus

and

perspective,

even

in

the

midst

of

more

challenging

circumstances. 

I

appreciate

you

listening

to

our

story

and

now

I’d

be

happy

to

take

questions.