The Mosaic Company (MOS) 8-K Regulation FD Disclosure

Mosaic’s Role: More Essential Than Ever

Larry Stranghoener, Executive Vice President and CFO

February 10, 2009

Exhibit 99.1

Good morning everyone.

Thank

you

all

for

attending.

I’d

like

to

thank

Bob

Koort

at

Goldman

Sachs

for

this

opportunity

to

meet with you and share our story and our viewpoints about our future.   

Safe Harbor Statement

This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private

Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.  Such statements include, but are not limited

to, statements about future financial and operating results.  Such statements are based

upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and

are subject to significant risks and uncertainties.

These risks and uncertainties include

but are

not

limited

to

the

predictability

and

volatility

of,

and

customer

expectations

about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are

subject to competitive and other  pressures and the effects of the current economic and

financial turmoil; the build-up of inventories in the distribution channels for crop

nutrients; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks;

changes in

government

policy;

changes

in

environmental

and

other

governmental

regulation; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida or the

Gulf Coast of the United States, including potential hurricanes or excess rainfall; actual

costs of asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other

environmental regulation differing from management’s current estimates; accidents and

other disruptions involving Mosaic’s operations, including brine inflows at its Esterhazy,

Saskatchewan potash mine and other  potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic

events or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals, as well as other risks and

uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the

Securities and Exchange Commission.  Actual results may differ from those set forth in

the forward-looking statements.

Before I proceed, I need to remind you that our presentation contains forward-looking statements. 

The remarks I make are based on information and understandings we believe to be accurate as of

today’s date –

February 10, 2009.

Actual results are likely to differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.

Strategic Focus

Deliver value for shareholders

Focus on Potash and Phosphate

•Grow Potash

•Strengthen Phosphate

Expand Offshore distribution

Maintain a strong balance sheet

Our focus on key strategic priorities will, we believe, produce outstanding results for our

shareholders.

We

plan

to

focus

on

our

core

businesses

–

potash

and

phosphates

–where

we

are

established industry leaders. 

We plan to grow our potash business through our previously announced expansions. This is an

excellent business and we have a strong foundation to build upon.  

We plan to grow opportunistically in phosphates.  We will strengthen our phosphate business through

investments that will result in added efficiencies and higher productivity at our plants and mines.  We

are also seeking additional rock sources outside of North America.

Offshore, we are exploring initiatives to enhance our presence in key growth regions of the world, in

alignment with our production capabilities. 

Our growth strategies are well underway, supported by a strong balance sheet.

Positioned for Significant Growth

Capitalizing on improved long-term

fundamentals

Generated strong cash flow, reduced debt &

achieved investment grade status

Executing on Mosaic strategy

An Industry Leader Emerges –

An Industry Leader Emerges –

Prepared for Long-Term Growth…

Prepared for Long-Term Growth…

As Well as the Near-Term Downturn

As Well as the Near-Term Downturn

Mosaic is positioned for significant growth and has taken the steps necessary to capitalize on

attractive long-term agriculture fundamentals.  We are especially proud of our strong cash generation

–

an

area

of

focus

since

day

1

–

which

allowed

us

to

pay

down

a

significant

amount

of

debt

and

achieve investment grade status long before many thought possible. We developed a robust, value-

creating strategic plan and are executing against it.  We have emerged as an industry leader and

realistically set our sights on becoming the very best company in the crop nutrition industry, which

will include a focus on generating top-tier  shareholder value.

Maintain balance sheet strength

Focus

on

phosphate

margins

–

not

prices

Manage production levels to meet market demand

Focus on operational discipline and risk

management

Fiscal 2009 –

A Challenging Year

Fiscal 2009 has been a challenging year.  And although market conditions remain soft we will

maintain

a

highly

disciplined

approach

to

managing

our

business.

The

benefits

of

strengthening

our balance sheet and building a large cash position are now obvious, providing us with significant

financial flexibility. 

In the phosphate business we will work to maximize margins, and remind investors that while DAP

prices

have

fallen,

raw

material

costs

have

also

plummeted

–

setting

up

a

win-win

situation

for

buyers and

producers. 

We

are

managing

our

production

levels,

displaying

our

commitment

to

limit

the

build-up

of

excessive inventories. 

Finally, our ongoing focus on operational discipline and risk management is being further elevated

as we manage inventory and other risks in a time of historic volatility.

Value Creation –

Cash Flow Drivers

Sales: volume, price, business mix

Operating margin: costs & expenses

Working capital: receivables, inventory & payables

Cash taxes

Capital expenditures

Capital structure

Supported By

Supported By

Strong Governance & Controls

Strong Governance & Controls

Mosaic is positioned financially, strategically and operationally to serve our customers worldwide

and execute on the strong, long-term fundamentals of the agricultural sector. We are also focused

on value creation for you, our shareholders. 

Ultimately

that

means

cash,

and

listed

are

the

levers

we

can

pull

to

generate

cash

–

and

lots

of

it

in

years to come.  It starts with revenue, which is a function of price, volume, and business mix and

continues with our operating margin.  Efficient use of working capital is another lever as is the

amount of taxes we pay.

Operating cash flow is used to fund capital expenditures, with remaining cash used for liquidity and

strategic

purposes

as

well

as

to

fund

shareholder

distributions.

We

support

these

cash

flow

dynamics with an appropriate capital structure, and ensure we have strong governance practices

and controls in place.

Cash Flow from Operations

Cash Provided by Operating Activities

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

All of

the

value

drivers

work

together

to

produce

operating

cash

flow.

Our

track

record

on

this

front

has been excellent, though we are showing less robust results this fiscal year.  And, as we have

indicated, third quarter operating cash flow may be negative, largely due to near term working

capital trends.

Longer term, however, we believe our cash generation potential is substantial, as we have

demonstrated over the past few years.  We have built a large cash balance even as we paid off

more than a billion dollars of debt.  This de-leveraging has been a critical part of our financial

strategy, giving us great financial flexibility, an ability to weather the current downturn without the

need for

ill-advised

business

decisions

taken

solely

for

short

term

liquidity

purposes,

and

the

likelihood, in our view, of being in great financial condition when the upturn occurs.

Cash Allocation Priorities

Invest to maintain/grow existing business

•

Growing proportion of growth/opportunity projects

•

Disciplined capital allocation process

Maintain liquidity buffer

•

To protect against cyclical downturn

•

To allow pursuit of strategic opportunities

Shareholder distributions

•

Modest annual dividend

•

Potential additional distributions of excess cash longer-term

There has been no change to our cash allocation priorities.  We will use the operating cash flow

we generate first to grow our business through internal investments, and will ensure a highly

disciplined review and approval process for these investments.  We plan to maintain a large

liquidity buffer, which may be used in part to fund attractive strategic opportunities if they arise. 

Finally, we will distribute cash to shareholders through our annual regular dividend and,

potentially, through

additional

distributions

longer-term

–

in

amounts,

forms,

and

timing

yet

to

be

determined.

2.3%

8.0%

30.2%

36.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

FY06

FY07

FY08

12 Mos Nov08

Return on Invested Capital

Effective pulling of all value levers also drives strong return on capital.  You see here the

great progress and strong results we have achieved on return on invested capital, reflecting

the rewarding investments we are making across the enterprise. 

Next I’ll spend a few minutes reviewing each of our business segments.

Value Driver:  Potash Revenue

Potash Sales Volume

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

FY2006

FY2007

FY2008

MOP Price

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

FY2006

FY2007

FY2008

Q1 FY09

Q2 FY09

Annual

Quarterly

Here you see the price and volume trends for our potash business, for the last few years as well as the

last two quarters. The price momentum in this business is well-known, and we expect our realized

prices to

decline

only

slightly

in

the

third

quarter

–

and

that

will

be

due

to

a

greater

percentage

of

lower-priced industrial sales in our mix.  Up until this year, when volume will decline due to slow

demand and our production cutbacks, we have seen steady growth in potash volume. This is a trend

we expect

to

continue

in

years

to

come

as

a

result

of

our

potash

expansion

plan

and

the

expanding

demand for potash globally.  I’ll say more about this shortly along with the key factors that will impact

future potash sales volumes and price movements.

Leading Global Potash Producer

Mosaic potash production

•

14% Global

•

38% U.S.

•

Five mines

Low-cost & competitive

industry position

World capacity approximates 73

million tonnes (all potash products)

0

5

10

15

PotashCorp

Mosaic

Belaruskali

Kali & Salz

Silvinit

Uralkali

Million tonnes product

•Potash Fertilizer Capacity

Source: Fertecon / Mosaic

Let me share some more details about our potash business.  Simply put, it’s an exceptional

business. 

Potash is produced in only 12 countries in the world and agricultural giants such as China, India

and Brazil are all import dependent.

Today, Mosaic is one of the world’s top producers of potash with an estimated 14% of global

market share at our five mine sites across North America.

Leading Global Potash Producer

Mosaic potash production

•

14% Global

•

38% U.S.

•

Five mines

Low-cost & competitive

industry position

World capacity approximates 73

million tonnes (all potash products)

0

5

10

15

PotashCorp

Mosaic

Belaruskali

Kali & Salz

Silvinit

Uralkali

Million tonnes product

Source: Fertecon / Mosaic

•Potash Fertilizer Capacity

And with

the

imminent

reversion

of

a

1.3

million

tonne

tolling

--

agreement,

by

our

estimate

in

the

fourth

quarter

of

fiscal

2010,

our

capacity

improves

in

size

and

scale.

Furthermore, because of historically low application rates in developing countries, potash has

been enjoying strong demand in key growth regions, where its nutritional value is more critical

than ever to optimizing crop yields.  

With these dynamics, it’s not surprising that the Potash business is an exceptional performer

for Mosaic, contributing strong margins and cash flow. 

Growth Opportunities -

Our Potash Expansions

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

* The projected annual capacity includes approximately 1.3 million tonnes (as shaded in blue) that

we currently produce under a third party tolling agreement at Esterhazy.  We estimate this

capacity will revert to Mosaic in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010, based upon our calculations and

assumptions.

Growth

from 10.4

to 16.8*

million

tonnes

One of the value drivers for potash is our capacity expansions at our existing Saskatchewan

mines.  Collectively these expansions are expected to increase Mosaic's annual capacity by

over five million tonnes, ensuring we maintain a position as one of the premier potash

companies in the world. 

Equally important,

we

are

making

these

investments

at

an

estimated

average

capital

cost

that

is significantly

lower

than

greenfield

projects,

a

route

chosen

by

some

other

industry

players. 

The recent collapse in the capital markets makes it ever more challenging to build and finance

cost-effective

greenfield

projects.

Our plans are multi-staged projects which will allow us to adjust spending and timing to meet

market demand and to optimize the use of cash. This is a valuable trait for a cyclical industry

like ours.

Our collective annual capacity is estimated to be 16.8 million tonnes, once the expansions are

completed and the tolling agreement expires. 

Shift in Business Mix (sales tonnes)

Present

Future

Potash

49%

Phosphates

51%

Potash

60%

Phosphates

40%

Our business mix will shift in coming years in favor of potash due to our expansions and

tolling

expiration

that

we

just

discussed.

We

are

already

a

bigger

potash

player

than

most

people realize and we expect to drive this high margin business to a greater share of our

total volume in years to come. This will start happening soon and should have favorable

valuation consequences.

Value Driver: Phosphates Revenue

Phosphate Sales Volume

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

FY2006

FY2007

FY2008

DAP Price

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

FY2006

FY2007

FY2008

Q1 FY09

Q2 FY09

Annual

Quarterly

Turning

to

our

Phosphate

business,

here

price

momentum

has

been

strong

as

well

–

though

this

came

to an abrupt halt and reversal in the past couple months. The supply and demand factors that I’ll speak

more about shortly will determine where prices settle and how they might move from there; our view of

agricultural

factors

makes

us

unquestionably

long

term

bulls.

Volume

will

be

down

sharply

this

year,

however, due to slow demand and substantial production reductions. Longer term we look to sustain

annual

sales

volumes

in

the

9

to

9.5

million

tonne

range.

World’s Largest Integrated Phosphate Producer

World’s largest capacity of

finished phosphate fertilizer

Mosaic phosphate

production market share

15% Globally

59% North America

World scale & efficient

operations

World capacity approximates 71

million tonnes (DAP/MAP/TSP)

0

3

6

9

12

Mosaic

OCP

PhosAgro

GCT

CF

•Phosphate Fertilizer Capacity

Million tonnes product

The Phosphate business possesses its own attractive attributes due to its sheer size and the benefits

of

vertical

integration

–

our

owned

rock

reserves

-

granulation

capacity

–

and

a

world

wide

supply

chain and distribution network.  Note that we have the largest global capacity of finished phosphate

fertilizer –

by far. 

Our  rock reserves provide us with a significant competitive advantage over non-integrated producers. 

These

producers,

who

supply

nearly

a

third

of

world

demand,

must

purchase

rock

or

phosphoric

acid

to

manufacture

their

finished

phosphate

products.

As

a

result,

their

rock

input

costs

are

significantly

higher than those of Mosaic.

One of our strategic priorities for phosphates is to secure additional rock sources outside of North

America.

Phosphates –

Operational Cost Savings

Energy –

capture

and convert

Logistics and

transportation

network

The size and scale of our phosphate business produces significant cost efficiencies.  We are

continually enhancing efficiencies, and in turn, lowering costs.

For example, we spend roughly $120 million on electricity each year to operate our plants and

mines.  The phosphate chemical process generates a significant amount of heat, which can be

captured and converted into electricity.  We have and will continue to invest in waste heat recovery

systems which will deliver significant energy savings and we expect to be a net generator of

electricity by 2015. 

We also have a distribution network without peer in our industry.  This includes ports, barges and

vessels and investments in unit train loading capabilities.  Approximately 70% of our annual North

American sales volume is shipped via unit train, while many competitors ship both fewer and

shorter trains.   This provides significant cost savings.

Offshore Assets Aligned with Global Demand

Canada

4 Mines

United States

7 Mines

4 Phosphate Plants

Argentina

1 Warehouse & Blender

1 Production/Warehouse

Brazil

7 Warehouse & Blender

2 Production/Warehouse

China

2 Warehouse & Blender

2 Production/Warehouse

Thailand

1 Warehouse &

Blender

India

1 Warehouse

Our North American based Phosphate and Potash businesses are bolstered by our production

assets

and

distribution

network

in

prime

growth

regions,

such

as

Asia

and

Latin

America.

We

have agronomists, sales teams, and staff with the operational expertise that know how to serve

customers and run our supply chains and plants.  These Offshore enterprises also enable us to

see the changes and trends in the industry first hand.

Market Outlook

Now let me shift to the outlook for our business.

Growing Global Affluence + Fuel

China:

Middle class

growth from 130

million to

690 million

by 2025

India:

Middle class

growth from 50

million in 2008

to 580 million

by 2025

USA:

Ethanol growth

to 15 billion

gallons by 2015

The 2009

mandate for

ethanol is

9 billion gallons

Source: McKinsey

The fundamental demand driver for our business is population growth, especially the growth of the

middle class in developing economies.  

Strong economic growth in a number of rapidly developing countries is creating a large and

increasingly affluent middle class who demand more protein-rich and grain-intensive diets that include

meat and dairy products.

GDP growth in key countries such as China and India is still robust.  Despite the recent financial

turmoil, economies of both these countries are expected to grow at about 7% and 5% per year,

respectively, in 2009.

The middle class in China and India is projected to increase by 1.1 billion people between 2005 and

2025.  This will result in a systemic and lasting change in grain and oilseed demand that we have

never before experienced.

The

growing

use

of

biofuels

is

also

contributing

to

the

increase

in

grain

and

oilseed

demand.

We

estimate

that

the

net

amount

of

corn

used

for

ethanol

production

in

the

United

States

accounted

for

about 3% of world grain and oilseed use last year and is projected to account for roughly 5% of world

grain and oilseed use by 2015 under current ethanol mandates.

Growing Grain & Oilseed Use

World Grain and Oilseed Use

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

Source:  USDA and Mosaic

Bil Tonnes

Actual

Actual for US Ethanol

Forecast

Forecast for U.S. Ethanol

Combine

the

boost

from

biofuels

with

the

growth

in

the

global

middle

class

and

you

get

growing

global

demand for grain and oilseeds.

According

to

USDA

estimates,

global

grain

and

oilseed

demand

has

recently

been

increasing

2.5

percent

per

year

–

twice

the

historical

rate.

Note

that

there

have

only

been

3

years

since

the

1970s

when

global

grain

and

oilseed

use

decreased

-

-

in

1974,

1988

and

1995.

In

all

three

of

these

years,

this resulted from low production due to poor weather.

Note

also

that

grain

and

oilseed

demand

increased

in

the

recession

years

of

1981,

1982

and

1991. 

We

believe

this

point

is

compelling

and

indicates

that

the

world

does

not

get

less

hungry,

even

in

economic

downturns.

And,

biofuel

mandates

only

add

pressure

to

produce

still

more

grain

and

oilseeds.

Record Crop Needed in 2009

World Grain and Oilseed Stocks

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

99/00

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

L

09/10

M

09/10

H

Mil Tonnes

10%

13%

16%

19%

22%

25%

28%

31%

34%

Percent

Stocks

Percent of Use

Source: USDA and Mosaic (for 09/10 estimates)

Farmers have responded to this demand by growing bin-busting crops during the last two years.  Yet,

this

has

not

built

stocks

to

secure

levels.

You

can

see

from

the

cross

hatched

bar

that inventories

are

projected

to

increase

this

year

but

stocks

as

a

percentage

of

use

–

noted

by

the

yellow

line

-

are

forecasted

to

increase

only

moderately

and

still

remain

at

historically

low

levels.

Our

analysis

indicates

that

another

bumper

crop

is

required

this

year

to

meet

the

demands

for

food

and

fuel

as

well

as

to

build

stocks

to

more

secure

levels.

That

means

farmers

will

need

to

plant

more

area and intensify cropping practices in order to increase yields.

The three bars on the right of this chart illustrate the potential outcomes for low, medium and high

production-and-use

scenarios

in

2009.

Note

that

trend-line

yields

next

year

are

not

good

enough

to

meet

projected

demand,

let

alone

build

stocks

to

secure

levels.

In

fact,

under

the

medium

yield

scenario,

global

grain

and

oilseed

stocks

decline

about

12

million

tonnes.

A

serious

weather

problem

in

2009

would

result

in

an

85

million

tonne

drawdown

in

stocks.

Crop Nutrient Markets Re-Calibrate

Factors Affecting Current Market

Broad and sharp commodity sell-off

Global economic slowdown

Global credit constraints

High inventory levels

Leading to

Change in buyer sentiment

Weak volume and softening prices

Inventory valuation risk throughout supply chain

Production reductions

Though

we

expect

the

long-term

fundamentals

in

our

business

are

intact

and

compelling,

the

current

market environment continues to be soft, and the crop nutrient market is re-calibrating.

A

confluence

of

factors

in

the

past

several

months

have

caused

demand

–

especially

for

phosphates

–

to weaken.  We have experienced a broad and sharp commodity sell-off, a global economic downturn

and

significant

credit

constraints,

and

a

pipeline

build

of

high

cost

inventories.

This has led to a lack of buyer interest, weak volume and declining  prices, and heightened inventory

valuation

risk

across

the

supply

chain.

In

response,

numerous

producers

–

including

ourselves

–

have

reduced production in response to slower demand and rising inventory levels.

Key Drivers for DAP Pricing

Near-Term Drivers:

Pipeline inventory

Raw materials

China exports

Global demand

DAP Prices

Quarterly Averages of Weekly Published Spot DAP fob Tampa

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Q1 07

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 08

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 09

Q2

Q3

$ Tonne

Source:  Fertecon

These

factors

have

especially

impacted

the

phosphates

business.

DAP

prices

have

taken

a

sharp dive

from

historically

high

levels

due

to

the

reasons

just

noted

and

the

sharp

decline

in

raw

material costs.  This chart shows the average DAP

price

for

the

second

quarter

–

note that

recent spot prices are closer to $348 compared with $715 a year ago.

These factors have impacted our phosphate sales volumes. Volume will be down sharply this

fiscal year due to slow demand and substantial production reductions.  The outlook for DAP

selling prices and volume hinges on several factors including the timely drawdown of pipeline

inventory

this

Spring,

raw

material

costs

trends,

Chinese

export

trends

and

overall

global

demand.  Buyer sentiment will play a key role, with much focus on overall grain prices and

farmer economics.  In

recent

weeks,

we

have

seen

a

modest,

but

broad-based

pickup

in

phosphate sales activity, while too early to call this a trend, it is an encouraging development.

Attractive Phosphate Market Margins

*Spot DAP price less spot sulfur and ammonia costs

DAP Market Margin

Quarterly Averages Calculated from Weekly Published Spot Prices

for a Central Florida Plant

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Q1 07

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 08

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 09

Q2

Q3

$ Ton

Source:  Fertecon, Green Markets, Mosaic

It is important to note that price tells only half the story in phosphates.  Equally important are raw

material costs, primarily sulfur and ammonia, and phosphate rock.  Costs for sulfur, ammonia and rock

had escalated dramatically over the past year as demand for these materials surged and natural gas

prices increased.  The combination of these high raw material costs and overall demand for phosphates

drove up phosphate selling prices.  As prices increased at a faster pace than costs, the so-

called

market

margin

–

the

difference

between

the

DAP

price

and

raw

material

costs

–

climbed,

as

shown on this chart.  

Recently,

the

cost

for

sulfur

and

ammonia

have

declined

sharply,

leading

to

reduced

phosphate

selling

prices.  Note, however, that we can produce excellent margins even as the price of DAP declines.  The

one caveat is that our phosphate margins, at least through our third quarter,  have been and will

continue to be pressured by the high sulfur and ammonia costs inventoried in product we are currently

shipping.

Key Drivers for MOP Pricing

Near-Term Drivers:

China contract

India demand

FX impact

Buyer sentiment

MOP Prices

Quarterly Averages of Weekly Published Spot MOP c&f Brazil

100

250

400

550

700

850

1,000

1,150

Q1 07

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 08

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 09

Q2

Q3

$ Tonne

Source:  ICIS

In

our

potash

business,

the

dramatic

price

increases

of

the

past

12-15

months

were

the

result

of

surging demand.  Producers struggled to keep up, and producer inventories remained at historic

lows until recently.  Upward price momentum and sales volume have slowed in the past couple

months and we have reduced our potash production in response to this slower demand and rising

inventory levels.

We

expect

our

realized

MOP

prices

to

decline

only

slightly

in

the

third

quarter

–

from

second

quarter levels

–

and that will be due to a greater percentage of lower-priced industrial sales in our

mix.  

Future sales volume and price movements will be determined by several factors, including:

The timing and terms of the annual Chinese potash contracts

India demand

Foreign currency exchange impact

Changes in overall buyer sentiment, which has been colored recently by lower grain prices

While any of these factors could swing one way or the other, we think potash fundamentals

generally remain excellent. 

Growth Expected to Resume in ’09

World Nutrient Use

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08E

09F

Source:  IFA  November 2008

Mil Tonnes

We see solid long-term nutrient demand, driven by the very strong traditional drivers of population

and income growth.  We believe in the food story and think that’s a story that will play out as

expected.   This demand growth requires significant supply increases.  And frankly, for phosphates

and potash, there are fairly limited capacity additions coming on line in the next few years.  And it will

require

relatively

high

prices

to

attract

the

capital

to

justify

greenfield

projects.

Obviously, there are a lot of uncertainties and factors to watch, namely the recovery of the world

markets and then what that means for global economic growth and validating our view on the food

story.

Key Takeaways

Crop nutrient outlook remains positive

Global demand for food, feed and fuel

Mosaic well positioned to deliver value

Notwithstanding current market disruptions, we are pleased and proud to be in the business at this

time. We serve an ever more important role to help meet the world’s growing demand for food and

fuel.   In closing, I want to emphasize three key points.

First, we continue to have a great deal of confidence in the long-term outlook for our business and

the

necessity

for

the

world

to

continue

to

build

on

its

capacity

to

produce

food.

Second, we believe agricultural fundamentals remain solid because of continued global demand for

food, fuel and fiber.

Third, Mosaic is well-positioned in this industry with its vertically integrated operations and an

enviable

global

footprint

and

balance

sheet.

We

are

actively

managing

all

value

drivers

–

we

understand how to produce cash flow and generate returns for shareholders and are committed to

doing so.

I appreciate you listening to our story and now I’d be happy to take questions.

Thank you

Appendix:  Non-GAAP Financial Measure Reconciliation

Return on Invested Capital

Our return on invested capital (“ROIC”) is a measure of value creation and how effectively we

allocate capital in our core operations. We believe ROIC is a metric that is most closely correlated

with stockholder value. We also use ROIC as part of our initial capital spending and potential

acquisition review processes to ensure that each capital dollar spent achieves a certain hurdle

rate of return.

There are limitations in the use of ROIC due to the subjective nature of items excluded by

management in calculating ROIC. This non-GAAP measure is provided as supplemental

information and should not be considered in lieu of the GAAP measures. Management uses

ROIC to measure how effectively we are allocating capital, and therefore, management believes

this information is useful to investors.

We define ROIC as follows:

•

Numerator (net operating profit after taxes):

+ Operating earnings

- Taxes at effective tax rate on operating earnings

+ Equity in net earnings of nonconsolidated companies

- Minority interest in consolidated companies

= Net operating profit after taxes

•

Denominator (average invested capital, trailing five point average):

+ Total Assets

Less Non-interest bearing liabilities:

        Accounts payable

        Trade accounts payable due to Cargill, Inc. and affiliates

        Cargill prepayments and accrued liabilities

        Accrued liabilities

        Deferred income tax liabilities - current

        Deferred income tax liabilities – noncurrent

        Other noncurrent liabilities                            

Total non-interest bearing liabilities

- Minority interest in consolidated companies

= Invested capital

ROIC:

Net operating profit after taxes / Average invested capital

We had ROIC of 2.3%, 8.0%, 30.2% and 36.5% for fiscal 2006, 2007 and 2008 and the twelve

months ended November 30, 2008, respectively. The reconciliations to the most comparable U.S.

GAAP measurements for the numerator and denominator are as follows (in millions and

unaudited):

Appendix:  Non-GAAP Financial Measure Reconciliation

We have presented above ROIC, which is a non-GAAP financial

measure. Generally, non-GAAP financial measures are supplemental

numerical measures of a company's performance, financial position

or cash flows that either exclude or include amounts that are not

normally excluded or included in the most directly comparable

measure calculated and presented in accordance with U.S. generally

accepted accounting principles ("GAAP").  ROIC is not a measure of

financial performance under GAAP. Because not all companies use

identical calculations, our calculation of ROIC may not be

comparable to other similarly titled measures presented by other

companies. In evaluating this measure, investors should consider

that our methodology in calculating such measures may differ from

that used by other companies.

May 31

May 31

May 31

November 30

($ in millions)

2006

2007

2008

2008

Total assets

8,628.4

$     

8,801.7

$        

10,118.2

$ 

11,510.5

$         

Less non-interest bearing liabilities:

Accounts payable

401.7

554.3

569.2

812.8

Trade accounts payable due to Cargill, Inc. and

affiliates

28.6

29.4

12.6

12.0

Cargill prepayments and accrued liabilities

-

4.5

41.6

36.2

Accrued liabilities

362.0

265.9

610.3

721.7

Accrued income taxes

88.1

112.9

87.6

133.3

Deferred income tax liabilities - current

2.5

7.1

33.2

31.0

Deferred income tax liabilities - noncurrent

715.6

629.1

551.0

545.2

Other noncurrent liabilities

884.7

923.6

1,001.8

978.6

Total non-interest bearing liabilities

2,483.3

2,526.8

2,907.2

3,270.8

Less:  Minority interest in consolidated subsidiaries

23.7

22.7

24.7

25.0

Invested capital

6,121.4

$     

6,252.2

$        

7,186.4

$   

8,214.6

$           

Trailing 12 months @

November 30

2006

2007

2008

2008

142.5

503.3

2,172.6

2,996.7

ROIC

2.3%

8.0%

30.2%

36.5%

May 31

Years ended

Average invested capital as of

Net Operating Profit After Tax

Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) Calculation

Trailing 12 months

ended November 30

2006

2007

2008

2007

Operating earnings

101.9

$     

616.3

$     

2,806.7

$  

4,058.4

$                    

- Taxes at effective tax rate on operating

earnings (a)

3.4

150.4

749.4

1,208.0

+ Equity in net earnings of nonconsolidated

companies

48.4

41.3

124.0

155.2

- Minority interest in consolidated subsidiaries

4.4

3.9

8.7

8.9

Net operating profit after taxes

142.5

$     

503.3

$     

2,172.6

$  

2,996.7

$                    

(a) Operating earnings

101.9

$     

616.3

$     

2,806.7

$  

4,058.4

$                    

    Tax rate

3.3%

24.4%

26.7%

29.8%

    Tax effect on operating earnings

3.4

$         

150.4

$     

749.4

$     

1,208.0

$                    

Fiscal Years ended May 31