The Mosaic Company Earnings Conference Call – 3rd Quarter Fiscal 2013 March 28, 2013 Jim Prokopanko, President and Chief Executive Officer Larry Stranghoener, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Laura Gagnon, Vice President Investor Relations Exhibit 99.2 |
Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of the numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or possible efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin or the Gulf of Mexico; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic’s operations are adversely impacting nearby business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of the Company’s processes for managing its strategic priorities; the ability of Mosaic, Ma’aden and SABIC to agree upon definitive agreements relating to the prospective joint venture for the Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Project, the final terms of any such definitive agreements, the ability of the joint venture to obtain project financing in acceptable amounts and upon acceptable terms, the future success of current plans for the joint venture and any future changes in those plans; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida or the Mississippi River basin or the Gulf Coast of the United States, and including potential hurricanes, excess rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management’s current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, or Canadian resources taxes and royalties; accidents and other disruptions involving Mosaic’s operations, including brine inflows at its Esterhazy, Saskatchewan potash mine and other potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals, as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. 2 |
Third Quarter Financial Highlights $0.81 Reported EPS $0.88* Adjusted, excluding notable items $2.2 billion $419 million * See reconciliation on page 17 0 0 Net Sales Phosphates Potash $1,502 $758 $216 $197 Operating Earnings 3 |
• Pent up demand with 2012 US Corn exports down 52% year over year • The likely case builds back one-half of the inventory drawdown this year • Long-term outlook remains strongly positive Commodity Prices Likely to Remain Elevated Considerations 606 579 493 406 468 461 425 436 512 568 545 531 495 Mil Tonnes World Grain & Oilseed Stocks Source: USDA and Mosaic 4 |
• Better than expected baseload demand from China and India: • China imports of ~4.5 mmt in FH 2013 • India imports of 4.0- 4.5 mmt in CY 2013 • Positive prospects in nearly all other regions 2013 K Shipments on Track with Forecasts 2013 Potash Shipments 55 52 29 53 56 51 55-57 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12E 13F Mil Tonnes KCl World Potash Shipments Source: Fertecon and Mosaic 5 |
• Strong Western Hemisphere demand with rising prices • India not back in the market until end of fiscal 2013 2013 P Shipments on Track with Forecasts 51 48 53 58 59 61 63-65 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12E13F Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/MES/TSP Source: Fertecon and Mosaic Global Phosphate Product Shipments 2013 Phosphate Shipments 6 |
Ma’aden Joint Venture • Aligns with our growth strategy • Attractive returns on invested capital • Low-cost producer • Logistically advantaged to Asian countries • Opportunity to participate in future projects • Diversifies sources of phosphate rock 7 |
Financial Results Review |
9 Unchanged Capital Priorities Maintain Investment Grade Rating Improve Balance Sheet Structure Less cash More debt Ample capacity for share repurchases Use of Cash: Priorities Finance Organic Growth & Maintain Dividend Strategic Investments Additional Returns to Shareholders Class A share resolution unlikely until later in the summer |
Financial Guidance Summary Category Guidance – Fiscal 2013 Potash Q4 Sales volume 2.3 – 2.6 million tonnes Q4 MOP selling price $350 - $380 per tonne Q4 Operating rate above 85 percent Q4 Gross margin rate in range of 40 - 45% Phosphates Q4 Sales volume 2.6 - 2.9 million tonnes Q4 DAP selling price $475 - $505 per tonne Q4 Operating rate above 85 percent Q4 Gross margin rate flat to Q3’FY13 Capital Expenditures $1.5 - $1.6 billion Canadian Resource Taxes and Royalties $270 - $330 million SG&A $420 - $440 million Effective Tax Rate* Mid 20-percent range * For the second half of fiscal 2013 10 |
Third Quarter Financial Performance In millions, except per share amounts Three Months Ended February 28, 2013 February 29, 2012 Net Sales $2,241 $2,190 Gross Margin $568 $522 % of net sales 25% 24% Net Earnings $345 $273 % of net sales 15% 13% Diluted EPS $0.81 $0.64 Effective Tax Rate 24.0% 24.5% Cash Flow Provided by Operations $371 $405 Cash and Cash Equivalents $3,323 $3,202 12 |
Potash Segment Highlights In millions, except MOP price Q3 FY13 Q2 FY13 Q3 FY12 Net sales $758 $780 $553 Gross Margin $308 $355 $270 Percent of net sales 41% 46% 49% Operating earnings $216 $316 $234 Sales volumes 1.8 1.5 1.1 Production volume 2.0 1.8 1.8 Production operating rate 78% 76% 79% Avg MOP selling price $385 $443 $453 Third quarter highlights: 1. Gross margin rate reflects lower average MOP selling price, unfavorable $24 impact of mark to market of derivatives, and higher depreciation expense and increased labor expenses in preparation of new capacity ramp-up. 2. Operating earnings include a $42 million charge related to the settlement of potash anti-trust litigation. 13 |
Phosphates Segment Highlights In millions, except DAP price Q3 FY13 Q2 FY13 Q3 FY12 Net sales $1,502 $1,762 $1,652 Gross Margin $266 $318 $259 Percent of net sales 18% 18% 16% Operating earnings $197 $245 $190 Sales volumes 2.6 3.0 2.6 NA production volume (a) 2.1 2.1 2.0 Finished product operating rate 87% 86% 81% Avg DAP selling price $496 $544 $536 (a) Includes crop nutrient dry concentrates and animal feed ingredients Third quarter highlights: 1. Year over year improvement in gross margin rate reflects lower raw material costs, partially offset by lower finished phosphate product prices. 2. Operating earnings include a $10 million asset retirement obligation charge. 14 |
Raw Material Cost Detail Mosaic is currently implementing a new inventory valuation system. After implementation, Mosaic expects to include this information in its performance data disclosures. Q3 FY13 Percent Ammonia ($/MT) Realized in COGS $540 Average Purchase Price $663 Sulfur ($/LT) Realized in COGS $181 Average Purchase Price $173 Phosphate rock (used in production) ('000 metric tonnes) US mined rock 3,137 88% Purchased Miski Mayo rock 296 8% Other purchased rock 144 4% Total 3,577 100% Average cost / tonne consumed rock $65 15 |
Earnings Sensitivity to Key Drivers (a) FY13 Q3 Actual Change FY13 Q3 Margin % Actual % Impact on Segment Margin Pre-Tax Impact EPS Impact Marketing MOP Price ($/tonne) (b) $385 $50 40.7% 10.6% $80 $0.14 Potash Volume (million tonnes) 1.8 0.5 40.7% 16.9% $128 $0.23 DAP Price ($/tonne) $496 $50 17.7% 8.0% $120 $0.21 Phosphate Volume (million tonnes) 2.6 0.5 17.7% 5.1% $76 $0.14 Raw Materials Sulfur ($/lt) $181 $50 17.7% 3.3% $49 $0.09 Ammonia ($/tonne) $540 $50 17.7% 1.8% $26 $0.05 (a) These factors do not change in isolation; actual results could vary from the above estimates (b) Assumes no change to KMAG pricing 16 |
Adjusted Earnings Reconciliation Reconciliation of Net Income Attributable to Mosaic to Non-GAAP Adjusted Net Income Attributable to Mosaic and Earnings per Share 17 Three months ended February 28, 2013 (in millions, except per share amounts) Net earnings attributable to Mosaic as reported 344.6 Pre-tax adjustments: Potash antitrust settlement 41.8 Potash unrealized loss on derivatives in cost of goods sold 24.1 Foreign currency transaction gain (32.3) Phosphates ARO revision for closed facilities 10.0 Total pre-tax adjustments 43.6 Income tax effect of adjustments* (10.9) Non-GAAP adjusted net income attributable to Mosaic 377.3 Non-GAAP adjusted diluted earnings per share attributable to Mosaic 0.88 Weighted average common shares used in computing diluted earnings per share 427.1 * Estimated annual effective tax rate of 25% based on our guidance. $ $ $ We report our financial results in conformity with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"). However, we are providing non-GAAP adjusted net income and non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share because certain items are customarily excluded by analyst in published estimates and management believes, for purposes of comparability to financial performance in other periods and to evaluate the Company's trends, that excluding the effects of these items is appropriate. The adjusted amounts are not measures of financial performance under GAAP. Adjusted net income and adjusted net income per diluted share should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for net income or earnings per diluted share, income from operations, cash provided by operating activities or other income, profitability, cash flow or liquidity measures prepared under U.S. GAAP. Because adjusted net income and adjust net income per diluted share exclude some but not all items that affect net income and may vary among companies, the adjusted net income and adjusted net income per diluted share amounts presented may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies. |