Exhibit (c)(8)
| STRATEGIC ENERGY ADVISORS Comparison of Business Plan Projections September 15, 2011 |
| STRATEGIC ENERGY ADVISORS Venoco, Inc. Comparison of Business Plan Projections • Business Plans: 1) 6.2.11 Base Case: Company prepared Business Plan dated June 2nd, 2011 (“Base Case” or “Risked Monterey Case”) at NYMEX pricing of $100.00/Bbl and $5.00/MMBtu (as shown in prior data rooms and June 8th, 2011 presentation to the Board of Directors) 2) 6.2.11 Upside Case: Company prepared Business Plan dated June 2nd, 2011 (“Upside Case” or “Unrisked Monterey Case”) at NYMEX pricing of $100.00/Bbl and $5.00/MMBtu (as shown in prior data rooms and June 8th, 2011 presentation to the Board of Directors) 3) 9.8.11 Base Case: Company prepared Business Plan dated September 8th, 2011 (“Base Case”) at current NYMEX strip • Key components of these plans are compared with Wall Street Consensus projections (as of September 8th, 2011) Comparison of Projections 2011-2015 CAGR/ 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Total Total Production (MBoepd) 6.2.11 Base Case 19.0 21.0 24.6 32.6 37.5 18% 6.2.11 Upside Case 19.0 22.8 27.8 37.0 44.3 24% 9.8.11 Base Case 18.5 19.6 21.9 23.4 24.4 7% Wall Street Consensus (1) 18.1 20.1 21.5 EBITDE ($MM) 6.2.11 Base Case $249 $320 $398 $546 $657 27% 6.2.11 Upside Case 249 376 495 683 871 37% 9.8.11 Base Case 231 284 403 478 513 22% Wall Street Consensus (1) 221 269 296 Discretionary Cash ($MM) 6.2.11 Base Case $190 $257 $335 $483 $595 $1,859 6.2.11 Upside Case 190 313 432 620 808 2,363 9.8.11 Base Case 131 217 329 400 434 1,510 Wall Street Consensus (1) 146 206 300 Capital Expenditures ($MM) 6.2.11 Base Case $240 $254 $374 $321 $472 $1,661 6.2.11 Upside Case 240 254 374 321 472 1,661 9.8.11 Base Case 247 259 233 201 180 1,120 Wall Street Consensus (1) 205 328 383 Free Cash Flow ($MM) (2) 6.2.11 Base Case ($51) $3 ($39) $162 $123 $198 6.2.11 Upside Case (51) 59 58 299 336 701 9.8.11 Base Case (116) (43) 97 199 254 390 Wall Street Consensus (1) (59) (122) (82) (1) Based on FactSet consensus estimates as of September 8, 2011. (2) Discretionary Cash Flow less Capital Expenditures. 1 |
| STRATEGIC ENERGY ADVISORS 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E ($200) ($100) $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Capital Expenditures ($MM) Free Cash Flow ($MM) EBITDE ($MM) Production (MBoepd) Venoco, Inc. Comparison of Business Plan Projections (1) Assumes NYMEX pricing of $100.00/Bbl and $5.00/MMBtu held flat. (2) Based on Venoco 5-year business plan as of September 8, 2011 assuming NYMEX Strip pricing of $94.00/Bbl and $4.22/MMBtu, $91.23/Bbl and $4.47/MMBtu, $92.28/Bbl and $4.99/MMBtu, $92.25/Bbl and $5.30/MMBtu, $92.45/Bbl and $5.49/MMBtu in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, respectively. (3) Assumes FactSet Consensus pricing of $94.70/Bbl and $4.40/MMBtu in 2011, $95.26/Bbl and $4.82/MMBtu in 2012 and $98.16/Bbl and $5.31/MMBtu in 2013. 6.2.11 Base Case (1) 6.2.11 Upside Case (1) 9.8.11 Base Case (2) Wall Street Consensus (3) 2 |
| STRATEGIC ENERGY ADVISORS $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E $3.04 $5.02 $6.93 $9.96 $12.97 $4.12 $5.38 $7.75 $9.55 $2.25 $3.66 $5.56 $6.75 $7.32 $0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 6.2.11 Upside Case 6.2.11 Base Case 9.8.11 Base Case $2.84 $4.07 $4.89 $6.11 $6.92 $3.34 $3.79 $4.75 $5.09 $2.10 $2.97 $3.92 $4.14 $3.90 $0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 6.2.11 Upside Case 6.2.11 Base Case 9.8.11 Base Case Venoco, Inc. Comparison of Business Plan Projections DsCF Per Share ($ / share) DsCF Per Share NPV @ 15% ($ / share) Capital Expenditures ($ MM) Pricing Scenarios 6.2.11 Base Case 6.2.11 Upside Case 9.8.11 Base Case Pricing Comparison 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Crude Oil ($ / Bbl) 6.2.11 Pricing $100.00 $100.00 $100.00 $100.00 $100.00 9.8.11 Pricing $94.00 $91.23 $92.28 $92.25 $92.45 % Change (6.0)% (8.8)% (7.7)% (7.8)% (7.6)% Natural Gas ($ / MMBtu) 6.2.11 Pricing $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 9.8.11 Pricing $4.22 $4.47 $4.99 $5.30 $5.49 % Change (15.6)% (10.6)% (0.2)% 6.0% 9.8% 3 Note: Midpoint discounting. |
