POTLATCH CORPORATION Michael J. Covey Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer Eric J. Cremers Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer POTLATCH CORPORATION DECEMBER 2011 Exhibit 99.1 |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 2 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended, including without limitation statements about future company performance, the company’s business model, strength of the company’s balance sheet and credit metrics, dividend levels and yields, direction of markets and the economy, management of timberlands to optimize values, projected inland private timber growth and harvest, future harvest levels and their relation to market trends, cash flow and dividend leverage to sawlog pricing, impact of the pine beetle on North American lumber supply, forecasts of North American exports of lumber to China, softwood stumpage price trends, forecast of U.S. housing starts, the company’s capital structure, weighted average cost of debt, cash flow generation, Canadian/U.S. dollar exchange rate, funds available for distribution, real estate business potential and land development potential, real estate value opportunities, biomass opportunities, forecasts of U.S. biomass consumed to produce electricity, management of the output of our Wood Products facilities, leverage and interest coverage ratios, debt repayment, net asset value, and dividend policy. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, assumptions and projections that are subject to change, and actual results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to, changes in timberland values; changes in timber harvest levels on the company’s lands; changes in timber prices; changes in policy regarding governmental timber sales; changes in the United States and international economies; changes in the level of domestic construction activity; changes in international tariffs, quotas and trade agreements involving wood products; changes in domestic and international demand for wood products; changes in production and production capacity in the forest products industry; competitive pricing pressures for the company’s products; unanticipated manufacturing disruptions; changes in general and industry-specific environmental laws and regulations; unforeseen environmental liabilities or expenditures; weather conditions; changes in fuel and energy costs; changes in raw material and other costs; the ability to satisfy complex rules in order to remain qualified as a REIT; changes in tax laws that could reduce the benefits associated with REIT status; and other risks and uncertainties described from time to time in the company’s public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this presentation, and the company does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements. |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 3 Converted to tax efficient REIT in 2006 Single level of taxation Lower cost of capital Fourth largest US Timber REIT 1.45 million acres of owned timberland Growing real estate business Five wood products manufacturing facilities Enterprise value of $1.5 billion (1) Market cap of ~$1.2 billion Net debt (2) of ~$0.3 billion Strong balance sheet with solid credit metrics Attractive dividend at $1.24 Company Overview (1) Based on November 28, 2011 closing stock price of $30.66 a share. (2) We define net debt as the total of short-term and long-term debt less cash and short-term investments, see reconciliation on page 29. Potlatch Corporation (REIT) Resource (Timberlands) Taxable REIT Subsidiaries North South Real Estate Wood Products |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 4 Wood Products Manufacturing Facilities Idaho: 813,000 acres Arkansas: 407,000 acres Minnesota: 225,000 acres Total: 1,445,000 acres Timberlands (1) (1) As of September 30, 2011. Potlatch owns approximately 1.45 million acres of FSC-certified timberland in Arkansas, Idaho and Minnesota and five wood products manufacturing facilities Potlatch Business Overview [813,000 acres] [813,000 acres] [225,000 acres] [225,000 acres] [407,000 acres] [407,000 acres] 407,000 acres] |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 5 Potlatch Financial Overview ($ in millions) 2010 Segment Revenues (1) 2010 Segment EBITDDA (2) Segment EBITDDA Margin (3) Resource $226 $83 36.7% Real Estate $85 $79 92.9% Wood Products $274 $15 5.5% (1) Segment revenues and EBITDDA presented prior to intersegment eliminations. (2) See page 33 of this presentation for definitions of EBITDDA and segment EBITDDA, and page 28 for reconciliations to most comparable GAAP measures. (3) Segment EBITDDA Margin is defined as Segment EBITDDA divided by Segment Revenues. Historical Consolidated Revenue and EBITDDA (2) $423 $440 $476 $539 $102 $107 $131 $151 $0 $200 $400 $600 2007 2008 2009 2010 Revenue EBITDDA |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F ~3 Years Forward Sawlogs Pulpwood $72 $80 $70 $53 $60 $64 $27 $34 $36 $33 $34 $32 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q3 2011 YTD Sawlogs ($/ton) Pulpwood ($/ton) 6 Attractive Timber Inventory & Harvest Profile Allows active management of harvest volumes to correspond with the strength or weakness in timber prices Attractive distribution of timber across age-classes Flexibility to monetize sawlog or pulpwood harvests Overall, harvest volume increasing over time Recently lowered harvest volume to 3.5 million tons for 2012 to preserve net asset value 4.6 million tons expected in approximately 3 years Potlatch’s cash flow (and dividend) is highly leveraged to sawlog pricing $7/ton price increase in 2010 produced incremental EBITDDA of $21 million Fee Harvest Log Volume Timber Prices 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.9 4.4 3.8 ~4.6 $/Ton Tons in millions 4.2 4.1 3.5 |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 7 Total Housing Starts Housing starts are presently far below the long-term average (in thousands) Source: U.S. Census Bureau 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 Year Average Starts Since 1971: 1.5 million |
POTLATCH CORPORATION Million U.S. Starts 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 U.S. Housing Starts Forecast Single Family & Multifamily Only Source: APA: Housing Starts: October 2011 (1) RBC: Royal Bank of Canada (2) FEA: Forest Economic Advisors (3) NAR: National Association of Realtors Actual Forecast 8 Forecasts (000) 2011 2012 2013 RBC (1) -Nov 15 593 727 NA NAHB-Oct 28 592 681 934 FEA (2) -Nov 11 595 668 878 Mesirow Financial-Nov 11 600 700 NA NAR (3) -Nov 7 583 630 NA RISI-Nov 1 590 630 NA APA-Nov 16 595 630 730 Wells Fargo-Nov 9 580 610 740 Average 591 660 820 |
POTLATCH CORPORATION Impact of the Pine Beetle on North American Lumber Supply Source: British Columbia Ministry of Forest and Range 9 Combined with Eastern Canadian harvest reductions of 20%, the pine beetle in British Columbia is projected to lower North American lumber supply up to 15% over the next few years, depending on lumber price levels. Cumulative Percentage of Killed British Columbia 2009 British Columbia 2016 |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 10 North American Exports of Lumber to China as a % of North American Production Source: RISI North American Lumber Forecast, June 2011 & Potlatch Internal Forecast. 0.2% 0.5% 1.0% 2.6% 4.7% 7.6% 9.1% 8.8% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Actual Forecast |
POTLATCH CORPORATION U.S. Biomass Consumed to Produce Electricity (1) (Millions Green Tons) 11 Actual Forecast (1) EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2011 & Potlatch Estimates. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 |
POTLATCH CORPORATION Random Lengths Pricing for KD SYP (West) #2 2x6 ($/MBF) 12 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2005 2011 (1) (1) Pricing through October 2011. |
POTLATCH CORPORATION Wood Products Segment $41 $13 $14 ($4) ($11) $15 $13 -$20 $0 $20 $40 $60 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 LTM Q3 2011 13 Five manufacturing facilities, lumber and plywood Sell to wholesalers for use in homebuilding and construction Potlatch operates four sawmills in Idaho, Arkansas, Minnesota and Michigan as well as one industrial-grade plywood mill in Idaho Actively manage output of facilities to match supply and demand $ in millions (1) (2) Note: See page 33 of this presentation for the definition of segment EBITDDA, and page 28 for reconciliation to most comparable GAAP measure. (1) Wood Products EBITDDA excludes $31 million for Canadian lumber settlement. (2) Wood Products EBITDDA includes asset impairment charge of $3 million. Wood Products Segment EBITDDA |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 14 Rural Real Estate ~95,000 acres Frequently assess acreage to maximize value through sale of non-core timberland real estate More than 3,000 miles of desirable water frontage More than 9 million people live within three states of ownership Potlatch Timberlands (1) Core Timberland ~1.2 million acres Non-Strategic Timberland ~15,000 acres HBU/Development ~125,000 acres Land Portfolio Idaho: 813,000 acres Arkansas: 407,000 acres Minnesota: 225,000 acres (1) As of September 30, 2011. Real Estate Overview Coeur d’Alene Boise Sun Valley McCall Little Rock Hot Springs Brainerd Minneapolis St. Paul |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 15 Value Opportunities Are Unique to Each Category CONSERVATION EASEMENT NON-STRATEGIC TIMBERLAND RURAL REAL ESTATE HIGHER-BETTER-USE DEVELOPMENT $400 to $1,000 per acre $500 to $1,500 per acre $1,000 to $1,500 per acre $2,000 to $7,000 per acre 120,000 Opportunity dependent 10,000 to 20,000 acres 90,000 to 100,000 acres 120,000 to 130,000 acres Characteristics: - Habitat related - Appropriate payment for opportunity sold - Selective core lands Characteristics: - Fringe of ownership - Location disadvantage - Higher operation cost - Capital allocation focus Characteristics: - Fringe of ownership - Opportunity varies by geographic market - Recreation character and amenities - Adjacent ownership influence Characteristics: - Property attribute focus - Investor interest - Explore proper land use and entitlements - Emerging development focus LOWER VALUE OPPORTUNITIES HIGHER VALUE OPPORTUNITIES |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 16 Significant Real Estate Portfolio Realization of Non-Core Timberland Asset Value 16.3 46.1 70.1 69.5 16.2 20.5 12.5 9.2 11.1 7.9 9.3 5.6 5.9 5.3 1.2 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 2007 2008 2009 2010 LTM Q3 2011 Segment Revenue Conservation Easement HBU/Development Rural Real Estate Non-Strategic Timberland $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 LTM Q3 2011 $/Acre Price Per Acre 42,841 30,168 93,974 71,561 13,166 14,266 11,234 7,796 8,991 3,009 3,562 2,430 2,967 2,583 954 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 LTM Q3 2011 Acres Acres Sold (1) $24.1 $46.1 $65.4 16,175 60,669 44,786 (1) Segment Revenue in 2008 excludes sale of building. (2) Excludes the sale of the Boardman, Oregon tree farm of 17,000 acres. $ in millions $85.2 104,737 (2) $85.9 83,135 |
POTLATCH CORPORATION Potlatch Timberland Holdings 17 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1,471 (3) 1,468 218 1,653 36 (61) 1,628 (45) 1,583 (105) 1,478 Acres (000’s) PCH Owned Acreage at End of Period PCH Acquired Acreage During the Year PCH Sold Acreage During the Year 2010 (33) (1) (1) Includes the sale of the Boardman, Oregon tree farm of 17,000 acres. (2) Acreage through September 30, 2011. (33) 2011 1,445 (2) |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 18 Balance Sheet Review ASSETS Cash and short-term investments 81 $ Other current assets 78 Long-term assets 594 Total assets 753 $ LIABILITIES & EQUITY Current liabilities 86 $ Long-term debt 345 Other liabilities 132 Total liabilities 563 Equity 190 Total liabilities & equity 753 $ September 30, 2011 ($ in millions) Strong credit metrics $150 million revolver expiring December 2013 (1) $68 million of fixed rate debt swapped to floating as of June 30, 2010 $63 million of floating rate debt outstanding Maturities in 2012 - 2018 6.9% weighted average cost of debt (including interest rate swaps) 8.6 weighted average years to maturity 7.1% weighted average cost of debt (all at fixed rate) (1) Per an amendment to our credit agreement, the revolver decreased to $150 million from $250 million, effective February 4, 2011. |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 19 Conservative Leverage and Interest Coverage Ratios (1) as of September 30, 2011 (1) Calculated per our bank credit agreement, using an accumulated other comprehensive loss “AOCL” exclusion. Per an amendment to the credit agreement, the Minimum Collateral Coverage ratio increased to 3.00 and the Maximum Funded Indebtedness to Capitalization ratio increased to 70.0% effective as of February 4, 2011. (2) This requirement will increase to 3.00 on October 1, 2011. (3) Updated for new appraisal dated June 15, 2011. Note: We define net debt as the total of short-term and long-term debt less cash and short-term investments, see page 29 for reconciliation. See page 33 of this presentation for the definition of EBITDDA and page 28 for reconciliation to most comparable GAAP measure. |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 20 Strong Net Asset Value Arkansas Timberland 407,000 Acres Secured Idaho Timberland 352,000 Acres Unsecured Idaho Timberland 461,000 Acres Wisconsin Timberland 1,000 Acres Minnesota Timberland 225,000 Acres Total = Approx. 1.45 Million Acres Annually we obtain an appraisal on 352,000 acres of core Idaho timberland The 2011 appraisal valued the secured core Idaho timberland at $707 million (1) , or $2,000 an acre Thus, while cash flows are currently depressed due to the weak housing market, the Company’s net asset value remains intact The appraisal is done by an independent 3 rd party appraiser (1) Updated for new appraisal dated June 15, 2011. The appraisal uses comparable transactions and discounted cash flow analyses for purposes of the valuation. There is no assurance that sales could be effected at the appraised values or as to the timing of sales. The calculation of discounted cash flows involves projection of future market conditions, harvest levels and other factors, all of which could vary materially from those projected. There is no implication that the company’s other timberlands would have a similar value per acre. |
POTLATCH CORPORATION Conservative Capital Structure – Long Term Debt Maturity Profile ($ in millions) 21 Mandatory principal repayments of only $79 million through 2016 (1) $5 million maturity paid in January, 2011 with cash on hand. |
POTLATCH CORPORATION Strong Cash Flow Generation ($ in millions) $102 $107 $131 $151 $144 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 2007 2008 2009 2010 LTM Q3 2011 22 Total EBITDDA (1) $97 $95 $105 $83 $78 $0 $40 $80 $120 2007 2008 2009 2010 LTM Q3 2011 Resource $21 $41 $60 $79 $79 $0 $40 $80 $120 2007 2008 2009 2010 LTM Q3 2011 Real Estate $14 ($4) ($11) $15 $13 -$20 $0 $20 2007 2008 2009 2010 LTM Q3 2011 Wood Products Segment EBITDDA (1) (1) See page 33 of this presentation for the definition of EBITDDA and Segment EBITDDA, and page 28 for a reconciliation to most comparable GAAP measures. (2) Consolidated and Wood Products EBITDDA includes a $3 million asset impairment charge taken in 2009. (2) (2) |
POTLATCH CORPORATION Exchange Rate Canadian Dollar to U.S. Dollar 23 $1.05 $1.00 $0.95 $0.90 $0.85 $0.80 $0.75 $0.70 $0.65 |
POTLATCH CORPORATION Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) ($ in millions) $85 $92 $111 $105 $99 $77 $81 $81 $82 $82 $50 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 2007 2008 2009 2010 LTM Q3 2011 2012F FAD Dividend Distribution 24 Note: See page 33 of this presentation for the definition of FAD, and see page 29 for a reconciliation to most comparable GAAP measure. Excludes dividend distribution of Clearwater Paper stock in 2008. |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 25 Attractive Dividend Potlatch's dividend policy has been driven primarily by the performance of its timber and real estate businesses Given the prolonged downturn of the U.S. housing market, we recently reduced our dividend from $0.51/share to $0.31/share Dividend remains very attractive relative to peers as well as to S&P 500 We anticipate increasing harvest levels and dividend as the housing market improves |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 26 Conclusion Potlatch maintains a very attractive asset base of 1.45 million acres of timberland We have the ability to meaningfully expand high margin sawlog harvest levels Wood Products business stabilized and generating solid cash flow Real Estate segment low risk, high margin Attractive dividend Strong balance sheet with attractive debt cost and maturity profile Industry trends beginning to turn positive Housing starts beginning to grow, albeit slowly Exports to China from North America continue to expand Pine beetle to impact supply from Canada Biomass continues to hold promise |
Appendix POTLATCH CORPORATION DECEMBER 2011 |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 28 EBITDDA and Segment EBITDDA Reconciliation ($ in millions) 2005 2006 (1) 2007 2008 2009 (2) 2010 LTM Q3 2011 Consolidated Earnings from continuing operations 74 $ 73 $ 81 $ 40 $ 51 $ Less: Income tax benefit (provision) 17 25 16 (5) (4) Add: Net cash interest expense 15 20 20 26 25 Depreciation, depletion, and amortization 26 30 35 31 30 Basis of real estate sold 4 9 11 49 36 Non-cash asset impairment and eliminations (2) Consolidated EBITDDA 102 $ 107 $ 131 $ 151 $ 144 $ Resource Operating income 82 $ 76 $ 82 $ 62 $ 60 $ Depreciation, depletion, and amortization 15 19 23 21 18 Resource Segment EBITDDA 97 $ 95 $ 105 $ 83 $ 78 $ Real Estate Operating income 17 $ 32 $ 49 $ 30 $ 43 $ Basis of real estate sold 4 9 11 49 36 Real Estate Segment EBITDDA 21 $ 41 $ 60 $ 79 $ 79 $ Wood Products Operating income (loss) 29 $ 2 $ 4 $ (14) $ (21) $ 7 $ 5 $ Depreciation 12 11 10 10 10 8 8 Wood Products Segment EBITDDA 41 $ 13 $ 14 $ (4) $ (11) $ 15 $ 13 $ Fiscal Year (1) Wood Products EBITDDA excludes $31 million for Canadian lumber settlement. (2) Consolidated and Wood Products EBITDDA includes a $3 million asset impairment charge taken in 2009. |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 29 Potlatch Net Debt Reconciliation ($ in millions) September 30 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Long-term debt 321 $ 221 $ 368 $ 363 $ 345 $ Current installments on long-term debt - 101 - 5 22 Current notes payable 110 129 - - - Cash (9) (1) (2) (6) (6) Short-term investments (22) (3) (53) (85) (75) Net Debt 400 $ 447 $ 313 $ 277 $ 286 $ At December 31 FAD Calculation ($ in millions) (1) Excludes distribution of Clearwater Paper stock in 2008. 2007 2008 2009 2010 LTM Q3 2011 Operating income (loss): Resource 82 $ 76 $ 82 $ 62 $ 60 $ Real Estate 17 32 49 30 43 Wood Products 4 (14) (21) 7 5 Eliminations and adjustments 1 (1) 8 2 4 104 93 118 101 112 Corporate administration (32) (25) (33) (30) (33) Net cash interest expense (15) (20) (20) (26) (25) Income tax benefit (provision) 17 25 16 (5) (3) Earnings from continuing operations 74 73 81 40 51 Depreciation, depletion and amortization 26 30 35 31 30 Basis of real estate sold 4 9 11 49 36 Capital expenditures (19) (20) (16) (15) (16) Non-cash asset impairment & eliminations (2) Funds Available for Distribution 85 $ 92 $ 111 $ 105 $ 99 $ Distributions to Common Stockholders (1) 77 $ 81 $ 81 $ 82 $ 82 $ Fiscal Year |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 30 Softwood Stumpage Price Trends Southwide Average Nominal Prices Source: Timber Mart-South, updated through September 30, 2011. $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 $/Ton Years Pine Sawtimber Pine Pulpwood |
POTLATCH CORPORATION Projected Inland Private Timber Growth and Harvest (1995-2027) 31 Source: F2M and Potlatch Corporation Actual Forecast |
POTLATCH CORPORATION Inland Private Sawtimber Inventory – Private Lands (1995-2007) Inland West (Idaho, Eastern Washington, and Western Montana) 32 Source: F2M and Potlatch Corporation 510 486 462 459 462 430 440 450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 Million Tons |
POTLATCH CORPORATION 33 Definitions of Non-GAAP Measures EBITDDA is a non-GAAP measure that management uses to evaluate the cash generating capacity of the company. The most directly comparable GAAP measure is net earnings. EBITDDA, as we define it, is net earnings from continuing operations adjusted for net cash interest expense, provision/benefit for income taxes, depreciation, depletion and amortization, basis of real estate sold and non-cash asset impairment and eliminations. It should not be considered as an alternative to net earnings computed under GAAP. Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) is a non-GAAP measure. FAD, as defined in the indenture governing our senior notes, is earnings from continuing operations, plus depreciation, depletion and amortization, plus basis of real estate sold, minus capital expenditures and non-cash asset impairment and eliminations. For purposes of this definition, capital expenditures exclude all expenditures relating to direct or indirect timberland purchases in excess of $5 million. We do not use FAD as, nor should it be considered to be, an alternative to net cash provided by operating activities computed under GAAP as an indicator of our operating performance, or as an indicator of our ability to fund our cash needs. FAD, as defined in the indenture governing our senior notes may not be comparable with measures of similar titles reported by other companies. Segment EBITDDA from continuing operations, as we define it, is segment operating income (loss) adjusted for depreciation, depletion, amortization and the basis of real estate sold. |