Risks Relating to the Airline Industry
An outbreak of disease or similar public health threat, such as the coronavirus, could have a material adverse impact on the Company’s business, operating results and financial condition.
An outbreak of disease or similar public health threat, or fear of such an event, that affects travel demand or travel behavior could have a material adverse impact on the Company’s business, financial condition and operating results. In addition, outbreaks of disease could result in travel bans or restrictions, increased government restrictions and regulation, including quarantines of our personnel or an inability to access facilities or our aircraft, which could adversely affect our operations.
In December 2019, a novel strain of coronavirus(“COVID-19”) was reported in Wuhan, China. The virus has promulgated significantly outside China, and now exists in most of the world. As a result, The World Health Organization has declaredCOVID-19 a pandemic. In addition, on March 13 the U.S. government declared a state of emergency and took some important actions including enhanced screenings, quarantine requirements and travel restrictions to certain countries. Other countries have put in place similar measures.
As of the date of this report, the Company is experiencing decline in near-term demand as evidence by a significant reduction in forward sales over the next few months, with declines of as much as 50% as compared to forward sales during the same period the previous year. In March 2020 we temporarily suspended, for a maximum of 30 days, some flights to markets on Central America, South America and The Caribbean due to government travel restrictions as the result of the virus.
We have implemented certain initiatives, including cost savings, temporary capacity reductions, deferral of the company’snon-essential capital expenditures, and the drawing of $300 million from medium-term liquidity facilities. All of these actions are intended to mitigate the disruptions caused by the coronavirus.
The extent of the impact of theCOVID-19 on the Company’s operational and financial performance will depend on future developments, including the duration, spread of the outbreak, related travel advisories, restrictions and the impact of theCOVID-19 on overall demand for air travel, all of which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted. If traffic on the Company’s routes were to remain at these levels for an extended period, and/or routes in other parts of the Company’s network begin to see significant declines in demand, our results of operations for 2020 would be materially adversely affected and we may have to take additional actions to preserve our long- term sustainability.
Our auditors have included a going concern emphasis paragraph in their opinion due to the significant drop in demand for air travel as a result of the effects of the COVID-19 global pandemic, and specifically the actions taken by governments, including the closing of the Panama City Airport, which are largely out of our control.
The Company’ consolidated financial statements have been presented on the basis that it is a going concern, which contemplates the realization of assets and satisfaction of liabilities in the ordinary course of business. However, because of the significant drop in worldwide demand for air travel caused by the COVID-19 global pandemic that has affected the entire aviation industry, and the significant travel restrictions that have been placed by numerous countries, including the decision by the government of the Republic of Panama to suspend all passenger flights for a period of one month effective on March 22, 2020, the Company’ independent registered public accounting firm, in their report on the Company’ consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2019, have expressed substantial doubt about the Company’ ability to continue as a going concern.
Following the suspension of its operations as a result of the government restrictions related to the COVID-19 global pandemic, the Company has implemented several measures to maintain robust liquidity levels, including the acceleration of collection of its accounts receivable through increased factoring, and the negotiation of longer payment terms with its main suppliers. As of March 15, 2020 the company had $1.0 billion in cash and equivalents, and approximately $300 million on currently available lines of credit. As of March 31, 2020 the company had drawn on $145 million of the $300 million available and ended the month of March 2020 with approximately $1.15 billion in cash and equivalents. To further bolster its cash and equivalents position the Company has the possibility of raising approximately $400 million in additional funds by refinancing its unencumbered aircraft, engines and aircraft spare parts, as well as by requesting advances from banks secured by its investments (including time deposits and fixed income instruments). In addition, the Company is reducing operational expenses and non-essential capital expenditure outflows. With these operating and financing measures it expects to decrease its monthly cash burn ratio to approximately $70 million per month for the remainder of 2020. The Company cannot guarantee that it will be successful in implementing these initiatives.
The airline industry is highly competitive.
We face intense competition throughout our route network. Overall airline industry profit margins are low and industry earnings are volatile. Airlines compete in the areas of pricing, scheduling (frequency and flight times),on-time performance, frequent flyer programs and other services. Some of our competitors have larger customer bases and greater brand recognition in the markets we serve outside Panama, and some of our competitors have significantly greater financial and marketing resources than we have. Airlines based in other countries may also receive subsidies, tax incentives or other state aid from their respective governments, which are not provided by the Panamanian government. Changes in our interactions with our passengers or our product offerings could negatively impact our business. For example, prior to 2015, we had participated in UAL’s loyalty program, MileagePlus. Starting in July 2015, we launched our own ConnectMiles frequent flyer program. Although, ConnectMiles is allowing us to build a more direct relationship with our customers, it may not be as successful as UAL’s MileagePlus program in building, and maintaining, brand loyalty. In addition, the commencement of, or increase in, service on the routes we serve by existing or new carriers could negatively impact our operating results. Likewise, competitors’ service on routes that we are targeting for expansion may make those expansion plans less attractive.
We compete with a number of other airlines that currently serve some of the routes on which we operate, including Avianca, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Aeromexico, and LATAM Group among others. Strategic alliances, bankruptcy restructurings and industry consolidations characterize the airline industry and tend to intensify competition. Several air carriers have merged and/or reorganized, including certain of our competitors, such asLAN-TAM, Avianca-Taca,American-US Airways, Delta-Northwest and, most recently, the strategic partnership between Delta Airlines and LATAM Group. As a result, they have benefited from lower operating costs and fare discounting in order to maintain cash flows and to enhance continued customer loyalty.
Traditionalhub-and-spoke carriers in the United States and Europe continue to face substantial and increasing competitive pressure from LCCs offering discounted fares. The LCC business model appears to be gaining acceptance in the Latin American aviation industry. The LCCs’ operations are typically characterized bypoint-to-point route networks focusing on the highest demand city pairs, high aircraft utilization, single class service and fewerin-flight amenities. As a result, we may face new and substantial competition from
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