Reserve for losses and loss expenses | Reserve for losses and loss expenses Reserves for losses and loss expenses are based in part upon the estimation of case reserves from broker, insured and ceding company reported data. The Company also uses statistical and actuarial methods to estimate ultimate expected losses and loss expenses, from which IBNR losses can be calculated. The period of time from the occurrence of a loss to the reporting of a loss to the Company and to the settlement of the Company’s liability may be several months or years. During this period, additional facts and trends may be revealed. As these factors become apparent, reserves will be adjusted, sometimes requiring an increase or decrease in the overall reserves of the Company, and at other times requiring a reallocation of incurred but not reported reserves to specific case reserves. These estimates are reviewed and adjusted regularly, and such adjustments, if any, are reflected in earnings in the period in which they become known. While management believes that it has made a reasonable estimate of ultimate losses, there can be no assurances that ultimate losses and loss expenses will not exceed this estimate. The following table summarizes the total reserve for losses and loss expenses as at December 31, 2016 and 2015 : December 31, 2016 December 31, 2015 Case reserves $ 1,237,772 $ 1,278,697 IBNR 1,757,423 1,717,870 Total reserve for losses and loss expenses $ 2,995,195 $ 2,996,567 The following table represents an analysis of paid and unpaid losses and loss expenses incurred and a reconciliation of the beginning and ending unpaid losses and loss expenses for the years ended December 31, 2016 , 2015 and 2014 : Years Ended December 31, 2016 2015 2014 Reserve for losses and loss expenses, beginning of year $ 2,996,567 $ 3,243,147 $ 3,047,933 Loss reserves recoverable (350,586 ) (377,466 ) (370,154 ) Net reserves for losses and loss expenses, beginning of year 2,645,981 2,865,681 2,677,779 Net reserves acquired — — 525,091 Increase (decrease) in net reserves for losses and loss expenses in respect of losses occurring in: Current year 1,281,289 1,283,970 1,024,256 Prior years (a) (216,192 ) (306,137 ) (259,241 ) Total incurred losses and loss expenses (a) 1,065,097 977,833 765,015 Less net losses and loss expenses paid in respect of losses occurring in: Current year (389,234 ) (326,167 ) (245,084 ) Prior years (725,168 ) (841,672 ) (818,569 ) Total net paid losses (1,114,402 ) (1,167,839 ) (1,063,653 ) Foreign exchange gain (31,902 ) (29,694 ) (38,551 ) Net reserve for losses and loss expenses, end of year 2,564,774 2,645,981 2,865,681 Loss reserves recoverable 430,421 350,586 377,466 Reserve for losses and loss expenses, end of year $ 2,995,195 $ 2,996,567 $ 3,243,147 Incurred losses and loss expenses comprise: Years Ended December 31, 2016 2015 2014 Gross losses and loss expenses (a) $ 1,257,054 $ 1,083,695 $ 826,826 Reinsurance balances recoverable (191,957 ) (105,862 ) (61,811 ) Net incurred losses and loss expenses (a) $ 1,065,097 $ 977,833 $ 765,015 (a) Upon closing the acquisition of Western World, an adjustment of $15,586 was made to increase net reserves to reflect fair value. This adjustment was fully amortized to income through a reduction in losses and loss expenses of $10,979 and $4,607 during the years ended December 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively. The net favorable development on prior accident years by segment and line of business for the years ended December 31, 2016 , 2015 and 2014 was as follows: Year Ended December 31, 2016 Property Marine Specialty Liability Total Validus Re $ (57,888 ) $ (24,435 ) $ (36,210 ) $ — $ (118,533 ) Talbot (38,368 ) (11,738 ) (35,704 ) — (85,810 ) Western World (2,701 ) — — (6,411 ) (9,112 ) AlphaCat (1,858 ) — (879 ) — (2,737 ) Net favorable development $ (100,815 ) $ (36,173 ) $ (72,793 ) $ (6,411 ) $ (216,192 ) The Validus Re segment experienced favorable development on prior accident years primarily due to favorable development on attritional losses along with favorable development on the 2015 Chilean Earthquake and 2015 Tianjin port explosion loss events partially offset by adverse development on events in the marine lines primarily related to receipt of a loss advice on an individual marine policy that incepted during the second half of 2015. The Talbot segment experienced favorable development on prior accident years primarily due to favorable development on attritional losses partially offset by adverse development on events in the marine lines primarily related to receipt of a loss advice on an individual marine policy that incepted during the second half of 2015. The Western World segment experienced favorable development on prior accident years principally due to favorable development on attritional losses. Year Ended December 31, 2015 Property Marine Specialty Liability Total (a) Validus Re $ (70,343 ) $ (39,460 ) $ (18,813 ) $ — $ (128,616 ) Talbot (52,393 ) (63,920 ) (30,044 ) — (146,357 ) Western World (a) (6,045 ) — — (16,922 ) (22,967 ) AlphaCat (8,197 ) — — — (8,197 ) Net favorable development (a) $ (136,978 ) $ (103,380 ) $ (48,857 ) $ (16,922 ) $ (306,137 ) The Validus Re segment experienced favorable development on prior accident years primarily due to favorable development on Superstorm Sandy, a 2012 loss event, and attritional losses. The Talbot segment experienced favorable development on prior accident years primarily due to favorable development on attritional losses and certain events, including the Thailand floods, which was a 2011 loss event. The Western World segment experienced favorable development on prior accident years primarily due to the amortization of the fair value adjustment made at the acquisition date as well as favorable development on attritional losses. Year Ended December 31, 2014 Property Marine Specialty Liability Total Validus Re $ (76,064 ) $ (6,830 ) $ (4,706 ) $ — $ (87,600 ) Talbot (53,779 ) (31,397 ) (55,990 ) — (141,166 ) Western World (a) 1,023 — — (12,263 ) (11,240 ) AlphaCat (19,235 ) — — — (19,235 ) Net favorable development (a) $ (148,055 ) $ (38,227 ) $ (60,696 ) $ (12,263 ) $ (259,241 ) (a) Upon closing the acquisition of Western World, an adjustment of $15,586 was made to increase net reserves to reflect fair value. This adjustment was fully amortized to income through a reduction in losses and loss expenses of $10,979 and $4,607 during the years ended December 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively. The Validus Re segment experienced favorable development on prior accident years primarily due to favorable development on attritional losses and the European Floods, Superstorm Sandy and Gryphon Alpha mooring failure loss events, partially offset by adverse development on the Costa Concordia loss event. The Talbot segment experienced favorable development on prior accident years primarily due to favorable development on attritional losses and loss events, primarily the Tohoku earthquake, which was a 2011 loss event. The Western World segment experienced favorable development on prior accident years primarily due to the amortization of the fair value adjustment made at the acquisition date as well as favorable development on attritional losses. The AlphaCat segment experienced favorable development on prior accident years primarily due to the partial release of a 2013 aggregate excess of loss contract. Short Duration Contract Disclosures During the year, the Company adopted ASU 2015-09 and has included the required disclosures below. Refer to Note 4, “Recent Accounting Pronouncements,” for further information. The Company has disaggregated its information presented in the tables below by line of business as appropriate for each of the Validus Re, Talbot and Western World segments. The Company has not prepared loss development tables for the AlphaCat segment as its reserves for losses and loss expenses as at December 31, 2016 of $48,534 are not significant ( 1.9% of total net reserves) and therefore, presenting this information would not be meaningful. Reserves for the AlphaCat segment have been included as a reconciling item within the reconciliation of loss development information to the Company’s reserves for losses and loss expenses. The Company has presented the below development tables for all accident years shown using exchange rates as at December 31, 2016. All accident years prior to the current year have been restated and presented using the current year exchange rate. (a) Loss Development Tables (i) Validus Re The Validus Re loss development tables have been produced by line of business for accident years 2012 through to 2016. The Company determined that it was impracticable to produce IBNR by accident year by lines of business for years prior to 2012 as the necessary data in original currency was not readily available. In addition, Validus Re provides treaty reinsurance products on a global basis for all of its lines of business and does not receive or maintain claims count information associated with its reserved claims. As such, the Company has determined that it is impracticable to provide this information. The net reserves for losses and loss expenses related to the acquisitions of IPC Holdings Ltd. (“IPC”) acquired on September 4, 2009, and Flagstone Reinsurance Holdings, S.A. (“Flagstone”), acquired on November 30, 2012, have been incorporated in Validus Re’s reserves for losses and loss expenses on a prospective basis. IPC and Flagstone were put into run-off as at the acquisition date of each. The prospective treatment for the acquisition of Flagstone was adopted primarily as a result of the data necessary to produce the loss development tables by accident year and by lines of business not being migrated over on acquisition as it was not requested or received and as a result does not exist within Validus Re’s data systems. Validus Re - Property Incurred Losses and Loss Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Years Ended December 31, December 31, 2016 Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total of IBNR Reserves Plus Expected Development on Reported Losses Cumulative Reported Claims Count <-------------------------- Unaudited ---------------------------> 2012 $ 397,635 $ 321,956 $ 309,344 $ 282,517 $ 280,411 $ 19,108 n/a 2013 174,722 156,233 141,203 132,830 7,233 n/a 2014 108,206 102,273 95,392 6,757 n/a 2015 154,923 118,484 41,177 n/a 2016 149,263 86,564 n/a Total $ 776,380 Cumulative Paid Losses and Loss Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Years Ended December 31, Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 <-------------------------- Unaudited ---------------------------> 2012 67,004 149,433 202,141 225,518 234,256 2013 17,325 63,974 101,158 114,263 2014 25,346 63,415 78,509 2015 16,029 57,882 2016 26,522 Total $ 511,432 Reserves for losses and loss expenses, before 2012, net of reinsurance (a) $ 154,539 Reserves for losses and loss expenses, net of reinsurance $ 419,487 (a) Includes reserves for losses and loss expenses, net of reinsurance, of $77,790 and $10,614 related to Flagstone and IPC, respectively. Validus Re - Marine Incurred Losses and Loss Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Years Ended December 31, December 31, 2016 Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total of IBNR Reserves Plus Expected Development on Reported Losses Cumulative Reported Claims Count <-------------------------- Unaudited ---------------------------> 2012 $ 195,163 $ 226,817 $ 225,131 $ 218,734 $ 216,673 $ 19,725 n/a 2013 76,776 74,022 63,630 61,210 7,347 n/a 2014 63,732 42,991 35,910 7,418 n/a 2015 129,864 119,490 55,557 n/a 2016 68,531 49,619 n/a Total $ 501,814 Cumulative Paid Losses and Loss Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Years Ended December 31, Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 <-------------------------- Unaudited ---------------------------> 2012 11,356 94,052 148,628 169,420 178,172 2013 11,784 28,996 39,493 44,512 2014 7,013 11,749 17,383 2015 3,723 16,180 2016 8,801 Total $ 265,048 Reserves for losses and loss expenses, before 2012, net of reinsurance (a) $ 64,750 Reserves for losses and loss expenses, net of reinsurance $ 301,516 (a) Includes reserves for losses and loss expenses, net of reinsurance, of $15,178 and $1,537 related to Flagstone and IPC, respectively. Validus Re - Specialty Incurred Losses and Loss Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Years Ended December 31, December 31, 2016 Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total of IBNR Reserves Plus Expected Development on Reported Losses Cumulative Reported Claims Count <-------------------------- Unaudited ---------------------------> 2012 $ 53,798 $ 54,573 $ 49,263 $ 47,428 $ 46,626 $ 733 n/a 2013 182,297 190,470 178,736 174,219 1,974 n/a 2014 213,911 208,508 200,649 8,372 n/a 2015 296,554 279,766 32,236 n/a 2016 295,872 128,761 n/a Total $ 997,132 Cumulative Paid Losses and Loss Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Years Ended December 31, Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 <-------------------------- Unaudited ---------------------------> 2012 $ 17,716 $ 41,156 $ 44,037 $ 44,942 $ 45,332 2013 99,340 157,688 164,366 166,814 2014 95,765 162,056 176,202 2015 177,776 235,819 2016 149,502 Total $ 773,669 Reserves for losses and loss expenses, before 2012, net of reinsurance (a) $ 67,909 Reserves for losses and loss expenses, net of reinsurance $ 291,372 (a) Includes reserves for losses and loss expenses, net of reinsurance, of $41,091 and $5,743 related to Flagstone and IPC, respectively. (ii) Talbot The Talbot loss development tables have been produced by line of business for accident years 2012 through to 2016. The Company determined that it was impracticable to produce IBNR by accident year for years prior to 2012 as the Company did not record this data for years prior to 2012 and as such, did not allocate IBNR by line of business for these years. Talbot writes treaty reinsurance business along with business through binders and lineslips and for this business the Company does not receive or maintain claims count information associated with its reserved losses therefore, the Company has determined that it is impracticable to provide claims count information. Talbot - Property Incurred Losses and Loss Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Years Ended December 31, December 31, 2016 Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total of IBNR Reserves Plus Expected Development on Reported Losses Cumulative Reported Claims Count <-------------------------- Unaudited ---------------------------> 2012 $ 135,923 $ 112,488 $ 100,748 $ 101,387 $ 100,773 $ 2,413 n/a 2013 118,167 96,814 83,426 81,004 605 n/a 2014 147,259 121,260 114,852 5,528 n/a 2015 138,087 109,608 12,696 n/a 2016 177,771 76,755 n/a Total $ 584,008 Cumulative Paid Losses and Loss Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Years Ended December 31, Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 <-------------------------- Unaudited ---------------------------> 2012 $ 13,051 $ 61,490 $ 83,824 $ 88,150 $ 92,512 2013 12,813 48,231 67,328 73,267 2014 21,249 74,493 95,945 2015 24,537 63,437 2016 37,880 Total $ 363,041 Reserves for losses and loss expenses, before 2012, net of reinsurance $ 12,180 Reserves for losses and loss expenses, net of reinsurance $ 233,147 Talbot - Marine Incurred Losses and Loss Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Years Ended December 31, December 31, 2016 Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total of IBNR Reserves Plus Expected Development on Reported Losses Cumulative Reported Claims Count <-------------------------- Unaudited ---------------------------> 2012 $ 208,883 $ 203,855 $ 186,278 $ 182,283 $ 178,839 $ 5,154 n/a 2013 189,091 188,991 168,203 161,839 11,372 n/a 2014 180,401 155,361 154,105 13,671 n/a 2015 187,790 192,818 54,285 n/a 2016 159,153 89,536 n/a Total $ 846,754 Cumulative Paid Losses and Loss Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Years Ended December 31, Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 <-------------------------- Unaudited ---------------------------> 2012 $ 36,491 $ 105,600 $ 136,335 $ 153,550 $ 157,475 2013 38,416 88,494 112,781 125,037 2014 24,433 74,547 102,788 2015 25,300 73,957 2016 35,105 Total $ 494,362 Reserves for losses and loss expenses, before 2012, net of reinsurance $ 44,753 Reserves for losses and loss expenses, net of reinsurance $ 397,145 Talbot - Specialty Incurred Losses and Loss Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Years Ended December 31, December 31, 2016 Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total of IBNR Reserves Plus Expected Development on Reported Losses Cumulative Reported Claims Count <-------------------------- Unaudited ---------------------------> 2012 $ 151,306 $ 132,735 $ 122,760 $ 120,621 $ 118,869 $ 5,886 n/a 2013 166,450 145,905 132,797 124,208 8,724 n/a 2014 215,960 214,962 198,653 39,248 n/a 2015 152,907 149,031 39,447 n/a 2016 166,604 105,142 n/a Total $ 757,365 Cumulative Paid Losses and Loss Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Years Ended December 31, Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 <-------------------------- Unaudited ---------------------------> 2012 $ 25,591 $ 57,906 $ 83,201 $ 87,753 $ 105,888 2013 42,325 77,428 91,940 100,213 2014 41,183 107,882 135,526 2015 35,724 85,397 2016 33,468 Total $ 460,492 Reserves for losses and loss expenses, before 2012, net of reinsurance $ 45,486 Reserves for losses and loss expenses, net of reinsurance $ 342,359 (iii) Western World The Western World loss development tables have been produced by line of business for accident years 2007 through to 2016. The Company has accumulated claims count information by accident year for Western World. The Company’s methodology for determining reported claims count information is on a per claims basis by accident year and is inclusive of claims that are open, closed with payment and closed without payment. Western World - Property Incurred Losses and Loss Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Years Ended December 31, December 31, 2016 Accident Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total of IBNR Reserves Plus Expected Development on Reported Losses Cumulative Reported Claims Count <------------------------------------------------- Unaudited --------------------------------------------------> 2007 $ 8,520 $ 8,161 $ 8,218 $ 8,209 $ 8,209 $ 8,206 $ 8,206 $ 8,207 $ 8,207 $ 8,207 $ — 841 2008 12,094 11,615 11,805 11,762 11,729 11,721 11,724 11,724 11,724 — 412 2009 10,300 10,005 10,039 10,034 10,060 10,060 10,060 10,060 — 784 2010 11,846 11,573 11,507 11,414 11,448 11,438 11,332 — 974 2011 12,588 12,223 12,000 12,134 12,012 12,021 — 1,238 2012 15,506 15,491 15,594 15,556 15,522 — 1,680 2013 21,825 23,561 23,659 23,599 — 1,950 2014 35,612 29,282 28,619 103 2,393 2015 27,879 26,002 135 1,788 2016 46,636 9,324 1,587 Total $ 193,722 Cumulative Paid Losses and Loss Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Years Ended December 31, Accident Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 <------------------------------------------------- Unaudited --------------------------------------------------> 2007 $ 5,418 $ 7,968 $ 8,192 $ 8,206 $ 8,206 $ 8,206 $ 8,206 $ 8,207 $ 8,207 $ 8,207 2008 8,895 11,288 11,672 11,747 11,714 11,721 11,724 11,724 11,724 2009 8,096 9,948 9,942 10,003 10,060 10,060 10,060 10,060 2010 8,563 10,521 10,905 10,854 10,882 10,903 11,287 2011 9,797 12,000 11,976 12,027 12,009 12,021 2012 11,166 14,838 15,435 15,513 15,522 2013 15,568 22,647 23,104 23,561 2014 21,913 27,211 27,606 2015 18,981 25,302 2016 29,666 Total $ 174,956 Reserves for losses and loss expenses, before 2007, net of reinsurance $ — Reserves for losses and loss expenses, net of reinsurance $ 18,766 Western World - Liability Incurred Losses and Loss Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Years Ended December 31, December 31, 2016 Accident Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total of IBNR Reserves Plus Expected Development on Reported Losses Cumulative Reported Claims Count <------------------------------------------------- Unaudited --------------------------------------------------> 2007 $ 164,717 $ 162,239 $ 160,117 $ 158,478 $ 154,499 $ 152,163 $ 149,994 $ 107,894 $ 107,350 $ 106,342 $ 1,981 $ 4.727 2008 135,009 135,280 135,330 133,088 131,006 129,559 102,424 102,070 101,478 2,075 4,950 2009 116,474 116,780 116,990 116,463 116,327 98,261 96,235 95,266 2,173 3,955 2010 101,223 108,823 111,675 112,072 105,400 106,066 103,973 3,877 4,205 2011 101,091 107,741 107,827 109,412 109,183 108,301 4,627 4,372 2012 108,981 111,283 133,990 132,562 127,486 9,410 4,649 2013 132,077 165,233 164,428 158,329 17,049 5,990 2014 197,022 197,388 203,592 44,988 7,469 2015 154,184 158,591 76,092 5,152 2016 133,303 104,906 3,156 Total $ 1,296,661 Cumulative Paid Losses and Loss Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Years Ended December 31, Accident Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 <------------------------------------------------- Unaudited --------------------------------------------------> 2007 $ 10,723 $ 30,741 $ 58,358 $ 80,218 $ 91,020 $ 96,658 $ 99,978 $ 102,600 $ 103,961 $ 104,038 2008 8,654 28,467 51,165 71,239 82,661 89,433 93,563 95,773 97,475 2009 10,023 30,131 48,255 65,009 77,895 85,644 89,688 90,415 2010 8,215 28,393 51,765 71,430 84,320 92,889 96,309 2011 7,331 27,438 50,197 75,000 88,415 96,780 2012 8,823 31,291 65,437 92,499 108,409 2013 10,159 41,782 77,776 108,613 2014 16,468 52,543 98,848 2015 12,662 39,598 2016 9,873 Total $ 850,358 Reserves for losses and loss expenses, before 2007, net of reinsurance $ 8,944 Reserves for losses and loss expenses, net of reinsurance $ 455,247 (b) Reconciliation of Loss Development Information to the Reserves for Losses and Loss Expenses The table below reconciles the loss development information to the Company’s reserves for losses and loss expenses as at December 31, 2016: December 31, 2016 Reserves for losses and loss expenses, net of reinsurance Validus Re - Property $ 419,487 Validus Re - Marine 301,516 Validus Re - Specialty 291,372 Talbot - Property 233,147 Talbot - Marine 397,145 Talbot - Specialty 342,359 Western World - Property 18,766 Western World - Liability 455,247 Total reserves for losses and loss expenses, net of reinsurance 2,459,039 Loss reserves recoverable Validus Re - Property 42,873 Validus Re - Marine 52,970 Validus Re - Specialty 2,162 Talbot - Property 93,774 Talbot - Marine 125,677 Talbot - Specialty 86,587 Western World - Property 187 Western World - Liability 87,300 Elimination - Intercompany (61,109 ) Total loss reserves recoverable 430,421 Unallocated loss adjustment expenses 51,990 Provisions for uncollectible reinsurance 5,153 Reserves for losses and loss expenses - AlphaCat segment 48,534 Other 58 Total reserves for losses and loss expenses $ 2,995,195 (c) Historical Loss Duration The below table summarizes the historic average annual percentage payout of incurred losses by age, net of reinsurance, as of December 31, 2016: Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Losses by Age, Net of Reinsurance December 31, 2016 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Validus Re - Property 19.0 % 34.9 % 20.9 % 9.1 % 3.1 % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Validus Re - Marine 12.0 % 22.5 % 19.3 % 8.9 % 4.0 % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Validus Re - Specialty 51.4 % 34.4 % 5.7 % 1.7 % 0.8 % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Talbot - Property 18.2 % 43.4 % 21.5 % 5.8 % 4.3 % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Talbot - Marine 19.0 % 31.8 % 16.8 % 8.6 % 2.2 % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Talbot - Specialty 24.1 % 30.6 % 15.6 % 5.2 % 15.3 % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Western World - Property 73.1 % 22.4 % 2.0 % 0.5 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.9 % — % — % — % Western World - Liability 8.1 % 18.9 % 22.9 % 20.1 % 12.0 % 7.2 % 3.7 % 1.8 % 1.5 % 0.1 % |