Investor Presentation March 26, 2012 Exhibit 99.1 |
1 1 1 1 1 Forward Looking Statements The following information contains forward-looking statements based on management’s current expectations and beliefs, as well as a number of assumptions concerning future events. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors. You are cautioned not to put undue reliance on such forward-looking statements (including forecasts and projections regarding our future performance) because actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied as a result of various factors, including, but not limited to (i) those set forth under “Risk Factors” in CVR Energy, Inc.’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and any other filings CVR Energy, Inc. makes with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and (ii) those set forth under “Risk Factors” in the CVR Partners, LP Annual Report on form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and any other filings CVR Partners, LP makes with the Securities and Exchange Commission. CVR Energy, Inc. assumes no obligation to, and expressly disclaims any obligation to, update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. |
2 2 2 2 2 Management Attendees Frank Pici Chief Financial Officer Ed Morgan Executive Vice President of Investor Relations Jay Finks Director of Finance |
Company Overview |
Pro Forma Company Overview Two top-tier Mid-Continent refineries – 115,000 bpd Coffeyville, Kansas refinery – 70,000 bpd Wynnewood, Oklahoma Refinery A nitrogen fertilizer plant using pet coke gasification (CVR Partners LP) – Rated capacity of 1,225 tpd ammonia; 2,025 tpd UAN Nitrogen – Current $100.0 million expansion ongoing to increase UAN capacity by 400,000 tons Operates in higher margin markets Logistics assets supporting both businesses Financial flexibility LTM Refinery Feedstock & Product Slate CVR Energy: About Us Note: LTM as of December 31, 2011. Includes only 16 days of Wynnewood (a) CVR distillate assumed to be diesel. NYSE– CVI Market Cap (1) - $2.3 billion NYSE– UAN Market Cap (1) - $1.8 billion CVI owns ~ 70% (1) As of 3/16/2012 4 4 4 4 Sweet Crude 77% Sour Crude 18% Butane 1% Isobutane 3% Other feedstocks 1% Gasoline 44% Jet Fuel 0% Asphalt 0% LPG 1% Other 13% Diesel 36% (a) |
5 5 5 5 5 Company Total Capacity (Kbpd) Blended Complexity Marathon Petroleum 602.0 10.0 ConocoPhilliips (a) 560.4 9.1 BP (b) 470.7 9.6 HollyFrontier 293.3 13.0 Valero Energy 265.0 8.9 Koch Industries 262.0 9.8 ExxonMobil 238.6 10.6 Husky Energy (b) 220.7 9.7 CVR Energy / Wynnewood 185.0 11.5 CITGO Petroleum 167.0 9.8 PBF Energy 160.0 9.2 National Cooperative Refinery Association 85.5 15.8 Northern Tier Energy 74.0 10.5 Tesoro 58.0 7.8 Calumet Specialty Products 45.0 8.9 CountryMark Cooperative 26.5 9.7 Somerset Refinery 5.5 3.3 Total PADD II Refining Capacity 3,719.2 PADD II Consolidated Refinery Statistics – By Owner “Top Quartile” Consolidated Asset Profile PADD II Refiners Median Capacity: 185.0 Median Complexity 9.7 NCRA CMC SR Capacity: 185 kbpd (Coffeyville & Wynnewood) Complexity: 11.5 (blended average) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Crude Unit Processing Capacity (000's bpd) Well Positioned to Compete in Underserved PADD II Region Source: EIA and Wall Street research (a) 100% of capacity in Wood River, IL refinery JV consolidated (50% ownership interest). (b) Includes 50% interest in JV in Toledo, OH refinery. |
6 6 6 6 6 Key Business Drivers (1) Adjusted for major scheduled turnaround, third-party outage on air separation unit and UAN vessel rupture Source: S&P Capital IQ ($40) ($35) ($30) ($25) ($20) ($15) ($10) ($5) $0 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 WCS - WTI Differential ($35) ($30) ($25) ($20) ($15) ($10) ($5) $0 $5 $10 May-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 WTI vs. Midale & WTS Midale-WTI Differential WTS-WTI Differential 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 2008 2009 2010 2011 Refining & Fertilizer (1) Utilization Gasifier Ammonia UAN Refining Utilization |
7 7 7 7 7 Source: EIA Utilization by PADD Source: Magellan 88.7 86.1 82.1 84.8 83.5 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 PADD 1 PADD II PADD III PADD IV PADD V Average Magellan Pipeline Inventories over 4 Year Range Gasoline Magellan Pipeline Inventories over 4 Year Range ULS Diesel |
8 8 8 8 8 CVR Energy total shareholder return Source: Capital IQ 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 CVI Refining Peers Index S&P 500 CVI Refining peers S&P 500 Since IPO 459% 81% 80% 2- 198% 134% 20% 1-year 39% 13% 10% year year 3 - 32% (39%) (10%) Note: Market data as of March 16, 2012. Peer index equal weighted and includes ALJ, DK, HFC, TSO and WNR. CVI IPO price is based on closing price of the first day of trading. Refiners relative total return performance 0 Oct -07 Feb -08 Jun -08 Oct -08 Feb -09 Jun -09 Oct -09 Feb -10 Jun -10 Oct -10 Feb -11 Jun -11 Oct -11 Feb -12 |
9 9 9 9 9 Building the business Responsive to opportunities Improving financial strength Shareholder Value Focused Increased total refining capacity to 185 kbpd Integrating Wynnewood acquisition and realizing synergies Grown crude gathering to ~40,000 bpd Expanding UAN capacity by 400,000 tpy IPO of CVR Partners Accretive acquisition of GWEC Initiating regular quarterly dividend $0.08/sh Planned secondary offering of CVR Partners units, with the after-tax proceeds primarily used to pay a special dividend Continuously evaluating alternatives to realize CVR Partners’ value Conservative leverage metrics Tactical hedging for risk management Ratings improvement to Ba3 Focus on maintaining discipline Since IPO, CVR Energy is #1 in total return among refining peers (a) and remains focused on creating value for shareholders (a) Total return based on period from October 23, 2007 to March 16, 2012. CVI total return compared to total return of refining peers: ALJ, DK, HFC, TSO and WNR. |
Refining Business |
11 11 11 11 11 Consolidated Supply Network Consolidated Marketing Network Extensive Crude Oil Supply and Product Distribution Network Major Canadian Crude Oil Pipelines Terminals Third-Party Refined Product Pipelines Wynnewood Refinery Coffeyville Resources Refining & Marketing and Nitrogen Fertilizer Wynnewood Exchange Terminals CVR Crude Oil Pipelines Third-Party Crude Oil Pipelines Wynnewood Related Pipelines CVR Headquarters |
12 12 12 12 12 Logistics Overview Operations Map Logistics Drives Profitability (a) Under construction. Located 100 miles from the global crude hub of Cushing, CVR has access to global crudes with storage to optimize purchasing and crude slates Shipper status of 35,000 bpd on Spearhead and Keystone Pipelines 40,000+ bpd crude oil gathering system serving Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri and Nebraska 145,000 bpd proprietary pipeline system to transport crude to the Coffeyville refinery Coffeyville Resources Refining & Marketing and Nitrogen Fertilizer Coffeyville Resources Refined Fuel Products / Asphalt Terminal Wynnewood Refinery Coffeyville Resources Crude Transportation Offshore Deepwater Crude Foreign Crude Coffeyville Resources Crude Oil Pipeline Third-Party Crude Oil Pipeline CVR Energy Headquarters Legend Total 6.1 mm bbls Crude Storage Owned / Leased Canada |
13 13 13 13 13 Overview Historical & Projected Canadian Production (a) Historical & Projected Bakken Crude Production (b) Access to WTI Priced Crudes (a) Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers June 2011 publication. (b) Source: Wood Mackenzie Upstream Service database Both refineries benefit from the current WTI-Brent spread WTI price-linked crudes are currently trading at historically wide discounts to crudes, such as Brent and LLS Growing production from the U.S. Bakken and Canada flowing into Cushing, OK is contributing to this differential Expected pipeline capacity (Seaway reversal) necessary to move production from Cushing to the Gulf Coast projected to move 250k bpd heavy/sour by 2013 87.6 102.1 132.7 142.3 201.8 262.9 313.1 340.0 362.4 0 100 200 300 400 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Bakken Crude Production (thousand barrels per day) Historical WTI-Brent Spread ($/bbl) 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Other Conventional Oil Sands Atlantic Canada Offshore 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2005 (thousand barrels per day) Actual Forecast $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Brent-WTI Differential WTI Brent ($5.00) $0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 |
14 14 14 14 14 Hedging Activity 2.9 4.8 4.7 3.1 2.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 $23.87 $26.12 $23.68 $20.54 $24.23 $24.74 $23.67 $22.23 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Volume Hedged Base Level 11/28/2011 As of 12/31/2011 As of 1/31/2012 As of 3/15/2012 Hedged Crack Spread $17.88 $16.73 $22.77 $26.51 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 2012 NYMEX 2-1-1 11/28/11 12/31/11 01/31/12 3/15/2012 -$7 -$6 -$5 -$4 -$3 -$2 -$1 $0 $1 $2 $3 Jul '11 Aug '11 Sep '11 Oct '11 Nov '11 Dec '11 Jan '12 Feb '12 Mar '12 Group 3 Product Basis |
Overview Asset Map Total Consumed Crude Discount to WTI Crude Gathering Gathered 7,000 bpd in 2005 Today gathering over 40,000+ bpd Growth target 10% – 20% per year for the next 2 – 5 years Texas Oklahoma Missouri Nebraska Kansas Colorado South Dakota North Dakota 4 year average is $3.53 Barrels Gathered Per Day 15,000+ Up to 10,000 Up to 1,000 Refining Operations Corporate Headquarters Growth Prospects ($7) ($6) ($5) ($4) ($3) ($2) ($1) $0 $1 $2 15 15 15 15 15 |
16 16 16 16 16 Phillipsburg Valley Center Station Winfield (Gathering South) Plainville (Gathering North) Hooser Station Broome Station Humboldt (Gathering South) Coffeyville East Tank Farm Cushing Plains/TEPPCO Barnsdall (Gathering South) Shidler (Gathering South) 55k 3,000k Capacity 17,900 bpd w/DRA Capacity 4,800 bpd Capacity 24,000 bpd w/DRA Capacity 110,000 bpd Capacity 30,000 bpd Capacity 4,700 bpd Capacity 38,000 bpd 660k 160k 200k 10k 40k 20k Jayhawk/Kaw Pipeline system 150 miles 67 miles 23 miles 100 miles Plains Pipeline 25 miles 19 miles 42 miles 1.6 miles 62.5 miles Capacity 107,000 bpd 18 miles 156,000 b/d Crude Gathering System “No Barrel Left Behind” Gathered Blended Refined Osage Station Owned 1,000k 30k Fairfax 25 miles Capacity 30,000 bpd |
Nitrogen Fertilizer MLP |
18 18 18 18 18 Overview Fertilizer Operations Strategically Located Assets and Logistics Located in the corn belt (on Union Pacific mainline) 45% of corn planted in 2010 was within $35/UAN ton freight rate of our plant $25/ton transportation advantage to corn belt vs. US Gulf Coast No intermediate transfer, storage, barge freight or pipeline freight charges Additional Shipments East of the Mississippi Rail Distribution 2011 Tons Sold by State 100,000+ 10,000 to 100,000 Up to 10,000 Corporate Headquarters Fertilizer Plant 2011 Total Tons Sold ~ 822,000 |
19 19 19 19 19 Overview Abundant Supply of Third-party Pet Coke US Pet Coke Exports and Consumption Stable & Economic Feedstock Source: EIA CVR Partners LP 2008 – 2010 average daily coke demand ~ 1,378 tons/day Coke gasification technology uses petroleum coke as a feedstock – Pet coke costs lower than natural gas costs per ton of ammonia produced, and pet coke prices are significantly more stable than natural gas prices – Over 70% of pet coke supplied by refinery through long-term contract Dual train gasifier configuration ensures reliability Ammonia synthesis loop and UAN synthesis use same processes as natural gas based producers Texas Gulf Coast Coke Production = 40,000 tons/day Source: Oil & Gas Journal Rail Distribution Corporate Headquarters Fertilizer Plant |
20 20 20 20 20 Market Fundamentals Farmer Profitability Supports Fertilizer Pricing Corn consumes the largest amount of nitrogen fertilizer Farmers are expected to generate substantial proceeds at currently forecasted corn prices Farmers are still incentivized to apply nitrogen fertilizer at corn prices lower than current spot Nitrogen fertilizer represents a small percentage of a farmer’s input costs Corn Spot Prices Breakdown of U.S. Farmer Total Input Costs Input Costs and Prices per Bushel ($) Other Variable Costs 13% Seed and Chemicals 18% Fixed Costs 48% Avg. % Total of Cost: Corn Futures Prices*: 30 Day: $6.63 12 Month: $5.80 Note: Fixed Costs include labor, machinery, land, taxes, insurance, and other. Fertilizers 21% Current $6.73* *As of Mar. 16, 2012 Source: CIQ *As of Mar. 16, 2012 Source: CIQ, USDA |
21 21 21 21 21 Market Fundamentals Strong Pricing Environment ($ per Ton) Historical U.S. Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices Ammonia $651 UAN $400 Southern Plains Ammonia Corn Belt UAN 5-Yr Average Southern Plains Ammonia Source: Green Markets Data, Fertecon 5 Yr. Avg. UAN $168 5-Yr Average Corn Belt UAN 5 Yr. Avg. Ammonia $294 5 Yr. Avg. Ammonia $497 5 Yr. Avg. UAN $315 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 Robust global grain demand coupled with capacity reductions has lead to significant nitrogen fertilizer price increases 5 year average UAN price has increased 88% over previous 5 year average UAN commands a premium over ammonia and urea on a nutrient basis |
Financial Highlights |
23 23 23 23 23 EBITDA by Operating Segment ($mm) Capital Expenditures ($mm) (a) Refining Margins and Expenses ($/bbl) Fertilizer Prices ($/Ton) Key Historical Financial Statistics CVR Energy Standalone (a) Total capital expenditures of $278.3mm for 2012, consisting of $164.6mm for petroleum, $109.8mm for Fertilizer and $3.9mm for corporate (b) Direct opex per barrel excludes turnaround. Note: Adjusted Petroleum EBITDA represents petroleum operating income adjusted for FIFO impacts, share-based compensation, loss on disposal of fixed assets, major scheduled turnaround expenses, realized gain and losses on derivatives, net, depreciation and amortization and other income or expenses. Adjusted Fertilizer EBITDA represents nitrogen fertilizer operating income adjusted for share-based compensation, loss of disposal of fixed assets, major scheduled turnaround expenses, depreciation and amortization and other income or expenses. $109 $142 $155 $581 $130 $71 $53 $163 2008 2009 2010 2011 Adjusted Petroleum EBITDA Adjusted Fertilizer EBITDA $60 $34 $20 $69 $24 $13 $10 $19 $2 $2 $3 $4 2008 2009 2010 2011 Petroleum Capex Fertilizer Capex Corporate $328 $223 $202 $312 $596 $342 $382 $596 2008 2009 2010 2011 UAN price Ammonia price $11.04 $8.91 $8.07 $21.12 $3.91 $3.58 $3.67 $4.79 2008 2009 2010 2011 Adjusted refining margin per barrel Direct opex (before D&A) per barrel (b) |
24 24 24 24 24 CVI Operating Expenses (a)(b) ($/bbl) 2011 Operating Expense (b) ($/bbl) Controlled Operating Expenses (a) Excludes turnaround. Includes only 16 days of Wynnewood operation. (b) Calculated on a per barrel of crude throughput. (a) |
Appendix |
26 26 26 26 26 Organizational Structure CVR Energy, Inc. NYSE: CVI Coffeyville Resources, LLC Fertilizer business CVR Partners, LP NYSE: UAN Refining business Public shareholders Public unitholders 100% 100% 100% GP 69.7% LP 30.3% LP Wynnewood Refinery (GWEC) (Wynnewood, OK) Coffeyville Refinery (Coffeyville, KS) 100% 100% $400m ABL due ’15 $447m 9% 1 st Lien notes due ‘15 $223m 10 7/8 % 2 nd Lien notes due ‘17 $25m cash flow revolver due ’16 $125m term loan due ‘16 |
27 27 27 27 27 Non-GAAP Financial Measures To supplement the actual results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), for the applicable periods, the Company also uses certain non-GAAP financial measures as discussed below, which are adjusted for GAAP-based results. The use of non-GAAP adjustments are not in accordance with or an alternative for GAAP. The adjustments are provided to enhance the overall understanding of the Company’s financial performance for the applicable periods and are also indicators that management utilizes for planning and forecasting future periods. The non-GAAP measures utilized by the Company are not necessarily comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies. The Company believes that the presentation of non-GAAP financial measures provides useful information to investors regarding the Company’s financial condition and results of operations because these measures, when used in conjunction with related GAAP financial measures (i) together provide a more comprehensive view of the Company’s core operations and ability to generate cash flow, (ii) provide investors with the financial analytical framework upon which management bases financial and operational planning decisions, and (iii) presents measurements that investors and rating agencies have indicated to management are useful to them in assessing the Company and its results of operations. |
28 28 28 28 28 Non-GAAP Financial Measures (cont’d) EBITDA represents net income before the effect of interest expense, interest income, income tax expense (benefit) and depreciation and amortization. EBITDA is not a calculation based upon GAAP; however, the amounts included in EBITDA are derived from amounts included in the consolidated statement of operations of the Company. Adjusted EBITDA by operating segment results from operating income by segment adjusted for items that the company believes are needed in order to evaluate results in a more comparative analysis from period to period. Additional adjustments to EBITDA include major scheduled turnaround expense, the impact of the Company’s use of accounting for its inventory under first-in, first-out (FIFO), net unrealized gains/losses on derivative activities, share-based compensation expense, loss on extinguishment of debt, and other income (expense). Adjusted EBITDA is not a recognized term under GAAP and should not be substituted for operating income or net income as a measure of performance but should be utilized as a supplemental measure of financial performance in evaluating our business. EBITDA: The Company’s basis for determining inventory value on a GAAP basis. Changes in crude oil prices can cause fluctuations in the inventory valuation of our crude oil, work in process and finished goods, thereby resulting in favorable FIFO impacts when crude oil prices increase and unfavorable FIFO impacts when crude oil prices decrease. The FIFO impact is calculated based upon inventory values at the beginning of the accounting period and at the end of the accounting period. First-in, first-out (FIFO): |
29 29 29 29 29 Non-GAAP Financial Measures (cont’d) CVR Adjusted EBITDA ($mm) 2008 2009 2010 2011 Petroleum operating income $31.9 $170.2 $104.6 $465.7 FIFO impact (favorable) unfavorable 102.5 (67.9) (31.7) (25.6) Share-based compensation (10.8) (3.7) 11.5 8.7 Loss on disposal of fixed assets - - 1.3 2.5 Major scheduled turnaround - - 1.2 66.4 Realized gain (loss) on derivatives, net (121.0) (21.0) 0.7 (7.2) Goodwill impairment 42.8 - - - Depreciation and amortization 62.7 64.4 66.4 69.9 Other income (expense) 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 $109.1 $142.3 $154.7 $580.9 2008 2009 2010 2011 Fertilizer operating income $116.8 $48.9 $20.4 $136.2 Share-based compensation (10.6) 3.2 9.0 7.3 Loss on disposal of fixed assets 2.3 - 1.4 - Major scheduled turnaround 3.3 - 3.5 - Depreciation and amortization 18.0 18.7 18.5 18.9 Other income (expense) 0.1 - (0.2) 0.2 $129.9 $70.8 $52.6 $162.6 Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA Petroleum: Fertilizer: |