| Liability for Future Policy Benefits and Unpaid Claims Disclosure | LIABILITY FOR UNPAID LOSSES AND LOSS ADJUSTMENT EXPENSE (LAE) We generally use the term loss(es) to collectively refer to both loss and LAE. We establish reserves for both reported and unreported unpaid losses that have occurred at or before the balance sheet date for amounts we estimate we will be required to pay in the future. Our policy is to establish these loss reserves after considering all information known to us at each reporting period. At any given point in time, our loss reserve represents our best estimate of the ultimate settlement and administration cost of our insured claims incurred and unpaid. Since the process of estimating loss reserves requires significant judgment due to a number of variables, such as fluctuations in inflation, judicial decisions, legislative changes and changes in claims handling procedures, our ultimate liability will likely differ from these estimates. We revise our reserve for unpaid losses as additional information becomes available, and reflect adjustments, if any, in our earnings in the periods in which we determine the adjustments are necessary. General Discussion of the Loss Reserving Process Reserves for unpaid losses fall into two categories: case reserves and reserves for claims incurred but not reported. • Case reserves - When a claim is exported, we establish an automatic minimum case reserve for that claim type that represents our initial estimate of the losses that will ultimately be paid on the reported claim. Our initial estimate for each claim is based upon averages of loss payments for our prior closed claims made for that claim type. Then, our claims personnel perform an evaluation of the type of claim involved, the circumstances surrounding each claim and the policy provisions relating to the loss and adjust the reserve as necessary. As claims mature, we increase or decrease the reserve estimates as deemed necessary by our claims department based upon additional information we receive regarding the loss, the results of on-site reviews and any other information we gather while reviewing the claims. • Reserves for losses incurred but not reported (IBNR reserves) - Our IBNR reserves include true IBNR reserves plus “bulk” reserves. Bulk reserves represent additional amounts that cannot be allocated to particular claims, but which are necessary to estimate ultimate losses on reported and unreported claims. We estimate our IBNR reserves by projecting the ultimate losses using the methods discussed below and then deducting actual loss payments and case reserves from the projected ultimate losses. We review and adjust our IBNR reserves on a quarterly basis based on information available to us at the balance sheet date. When we establish our reserves, we analyze various factors such as our historical loss experience and that of the insurance industry, claims frequency and severity, our business mix, our claims processing procedures, legislative enactments, judicial decisions and legal developments in imposition of damages, and general economic conditions, including inflation. A change in any of these factors from the assumptions implicit in our estimates will cause our ultimate loss experience to be better or worse than indicated by our reserves, and the difference could be material. Due to the interaction of the aforementioned factors, there is no precise method for evaluating the impact of any one specific factor in isolation, and an element of judgment is ultimately required. Due to the uncertain nature of any projection of the future, the ultimate amount we will pay for losses will be different from the reserves we record. However, in our judgment, we employ techniques and assumptions that are appropriate, and the resulting reserve estimates are reasonable, given the information available at the balance sheet date. To determine our ultimate losses, we first use multiple actuarial techniques to establish a range of reasonable estimates. These techniques are in line with actuarial standards of practice and actuarial literature. A brief overview of each of these techniques is provided below. We then make additional qualitative considerations for many of the previously mentioned factors and select a point within this range. These ultimate loss estimates include reserves for both reported and unreported claims. Estimation of the Reserves for Unpaid Losses and Allocated LAE We calculate our estimate of ultimate losses with the following actuarial methods. The methods are applied to paid and incurred loss data. Incurred losses are defined as paid losses plus case reserves. For our loss reserving process, the word “segment” refers to a subgrouping of our claims data, such as by geographic area and/or by particular line of business; it does not refer to operating segments. • Development Method - The development method is based upon the assumption that the relative change in a given year’s loss estimates from one evaluation point to the next is similar to the relative change in prior years’ reported loss estimates at similar evaluation points. In utilizing this method, actual annual historical loss data is evaluated. Loss development factors (LDFs) are calculated to measure the change in cumulative losses from one evaluation point to the next. These historical LDFs and comparable industry benchmark factors form the basis for selecting the LDFs used in projecting the current valuation of losses to an ultimate basis. When applied to incurred loss data, the implicit assumption is that the relative adequacy of case reserves has been consistent over time, and that there have been no material changes in the rate at which claims have been reported. Applying this method to paid losses avoids potential distortions in the data due to changes in case reserving methodology, but also loses any potentially useful information contained in the current case reserves. The paid development method’s implicit assumption is that the rate of payment of claims has been relatively consistent over time. • Expected Loss Method - Ultimate loss projections are based upon a prior measure of the anticipated losses, usually relative to a measure of exposure (such as earned house years). An expected loss cost is applied to each year’s measure of exposure to determine estimated ultimate losses for that year. Actual losses are not considered in this calculation. Because the ultimate loss estimates do not change unless the exposures or loss costs change, this method has the advantage of being stable over time. However, the advantage of this stability is offset by a lack of responsiveness since this method does not consider actual loss experience as it emerges. This method assumes that the loss cost per unit of exposure is a good indication of ultimate losses. It can be entirely dependent on pricing assumptions (e.g., historical experience adjusted for loss trend). • Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method - The Bornhuetter-Ferguson (B-F) method is a credibility weighting procedure that blends the responsiveness of the Development Method with the stability of the Expected Loss Method by setting ultimate losses equal to actual losses plus the expected unreported losses which are based on the Expected Loss Method. As an experience year matures, actual losses gradually move closer to their ultimate levels so reliance on the Expected Loss Method can be reduced. • Paid-to-Paid Development Method - In addition to the aforementioned methods, we also rely upon the Paid-to-Paid Development Method to project ultimate unallocated loss adjustment expense (ULAE). Ratios of paid ULAE to paid loss and allocated loss adjustment expense are compiled by calendar year and a paid-to-paid ratio selection is made. The selected ratio is applied to the estimated IBNR amounts and one half of this ratio is applied to case reserves. This method is derived from rule of thumb that half of ULAE is incurred when a claim is opened and the other half is incurred over the remaining life of the claim. Reliance and Selection of Methods Each of these methods has its own strengths and weaknesses that depend upon the circumstances of the segment and the age of the claims experience we analyze. The nature of our book of business allows us to place substantial, but not exclusive, reliance on the loss development methods, and the selected LDFs, represent the most critical aspect of our loss reserving process. We use the same set of LDFs in the methods during our loss reserving process that we also use to calculate the premium necessary to pay expected ultimate losses. Reasonably-Likely Changes in Variables As previously noted, we evaluate several factors when exercising our judgment in the selection of the LDFs that ultimately drive the determination of our loss reserves. The process of establishing our reserves is complex and necessarily imprecise, as it involves using judgment that is affected by many variables. We believe a reasonably-likely change in almost any of these aforementioned factors could have an impact on our reported results, financial condition and liquidity. However, we do not believe any reasonably likely changes in the frequency or severity of claims would have a material impact on us. On an annual basis, our consulting actuary issues a statement of actuarial opinion that documents the actuary’s evaluation of the adequacy of our unpaid loss obligations under the terms of our policies. We review the analysis underlying the consulting actuary’s opinion and compare the projected ultimate losses to our own estimates to ensure that the reserve for unpaid losses recorded at each annual balance sheet date is based upon all internal and external factors related to known and unknown claims against us and to ensure our reserve is within guidelines promulgated by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC). We maintain an in-house claims staff that monitors and directs all aspects of our claims process. We assign the fieldwork to our wholly-owned claims subsidiary, or to third-party claims adjusting companies, none of whom have the authority to settle or pay any claims on our behalf. The third-party claims adjusting companies conduct inspection of the damaged property and prepare initial estimates. We review the inspection reports and initial estimates to determine the amounts to be paid to the policyholder in accordance with the terms and conditions of the policy in effect at the time that the policyholder incurs the loss. We maintain strategic relationships with multiple claims adjusting companies that we can engage should we need additional non-catastrophe claims servicing capacity. We believe the combination of our internal resources and relationships with external claims servicing companies provide an adequate level of claims servicing in the event catastrophes affect our policyholders. The following is information about incurred claims development and paid claims development as of December 31, 2018 , net of reinsurance, as well as cumulative claim frequency and the total of IBNR liability plus expected development on reported claims included within the net incurred claims amounts. The incurred claims development and paid claims development data reflect the acquisitions of FSIC, IIC, and AmCo in February 2015, April 2016, and April 2017, respectively, on a retrospective basis (includes FSIC, IIC and AmCo data for years prior to our acquisition of the insurance affiliates). The information about incurred claims development and paid claims development for the years ended December 31, 2009 to 2015 is presented as supplementary information. Personal Homeowners’ Insurance $ In thousands (except number of reported claims) Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, 2018 Total of IBNR Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims For the Years Ended December 31, Unaudited Audited Accident Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 $ 46,952 $ 46,089 $ 45,515 $ 45,583 $ 45,316 $ 45,116 $ 44,959 $ 44,996 $ 44,617 $ 44,574 $ 2 4,152 2010 — 51,144 51,292 51,862 52,239 51,685 51,841 51,674 51,836 51,796 11 5,095 2011 — — 53,878 56,840 57,670 58,047 59,517 60,215 60,288 60,522 72 6,224 2012 — — — 65,112 69,438 68,923 68,388 69,000 69,064 67,934 159 11,046 2013 — — — — 98,461 94,755 93,041 92,702 92,792 66,709 174 8,373 2014 — — — — — 130,090 130,488 131,402 132,096 104,222 619 12,822 2015 — — — — — — 181,609 195,902 195,864 196,549 1,795 19,152 2016 — — — — — — — 249,276 250,774 236,050 4,208 30,572 2017 — — — — — — — — 208,537 165,375 9,730 73,280 2018 — — — — — — — — — 268,275 44,495 35,629 Total $ 1,262,006 Accident Year Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Unaudited Audited 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 $ 31,525 $ 41,134 $ 43,149 $ 44,114 $ 44,413 $ 44,737 $ 44,898 $ 44,966 $ 44,577 $ 44,572 2010 — 32,993 43,932 46,711 49,256 50,215 50,704 51,163 51,435 51,484 2011 — — 36,419 48,558 52,412 55,532 58,069 59,461 59,806 60,289 2012 — — — 42,699 60,640 64,675 66,739 68,337 68,655 67,487 2013 — — — — 63,732 85,346 89,068 90,627 91,789 65,989 2014 — — — — — 88,375 119,612 125,951 129,636 102,550 2015 — — — — — — 123,888 174,993 188,199 192,065 2016 — — — — — — — 170,527 232,266 227,052 2017 — — — — — — — — 138,112 158,114 2018 — — — — — — — — — 195,168 Total $ 1,164,770 All outstanding liabilities before 2009, net of reinsurance 2 Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 97,238 The following is supplementary information about average historical claims duration as of December 31, 2018 . Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance Unaudited Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 74.4 % 25.4 % 6.2 % 3.3 % (2.5 )% (6.9 )% — % 0.5 % (0.4 )% — % Commercial Residential Insurance $ In thousands (except number of reported claims) Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, 2018 Total of IBNR Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims For the Years Ended December 31, Unaudited Audited Accident Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 $ 11,323 $ 5,233 $ 4,054 $ 3,853 $ 4,182 $ 3,459 $ 3,490 $ 3,489 $ 3,486 $ 3,484 $ — 383 2010 — 12,134 5,603 5,374 5,489 4,291 4,160 4,112 4,112 4,112 — 580 2011 — — 12,702 11,280 10,197 8,972 9,142 9,030 8,985 9,026 54 757 2012 — — — 11,404 9,540 9,690 9,771 8,671 12,615 12,641 65 802 2013 — — — — 8,359 6,420 11,826 8,382 7,573 7,426 163 740 2014 — — — — — 15,845 15,752 16,311 16,816 16,070 686 679 2015 — — — — — — 16,554 20,434 24,568 26,619 2,039 836 2016 — — — — — — — 38,632 25,599 23,079 2,591 1,194 2017 — — — — — — — — 76,910 102,408 4,254 4,254 2018 — — — — — — — — — 62,043 14,004 3,218 Total $ 266,908 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Unaudited Audited Accident Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 $ 1,639 $ 3,616 $ 3,410 $ 3,415 $ 3,920 $ 3,446 $ 3,471 $ 3,485 $ 3,484 $ 3,483 2010 — 1,968 3,127 3,461 3,966 3,909 3,909 4,112 4,112 4,112 2011 — — 3,541 6,241 7,605 7,846 8,825 8,851 8,933 8,972 2012 — — — 4,583 6,942 6,893 7,543 8,552 12,575 12,576 2013 — — — — 2,958 5,127 5,317 7,248 7,254 7,256 2014 — — — — — 6,379 9,452 13,212 14,420 15,336 2015 — — — — — — 10,188 17,139 20,645 22,983 2016 — — — — — — — 10,917 16,687 19,606 2017 — — — — — — — — 42,744 86,775 2018 — — — — — — — — — 28,092 Total $ 209,191 All outstanding liabilities before 2009, net of reinsurance — Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 57,717 The following is supplementary information about average historical claims duration as of December 31, 2018 . Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance Unaudited Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 41.5 % 29.9 % 7.8 % 8.9 % 6.3 % 3.7 % 1.6 % 0.3 % — % — % Remaining Product Lines $ In thousands (except number of reported claims) Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, 2018 Total of IBNR Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims For the Years Ended December 31, Unaudited Audited Accident Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 $ 10,610 $ 10,135 $ 10,093 $ 10,026 $ 9,902 $ 9,844 $ 9,837 $ 10,009 $ 10,007 $ 10,007 $ — 1,072 2010 — 9,911 11,042 10,733 11,126 11,020 11,105 11,072 11,072 11,072 — 1,096 2011 — — 11,126 11,022 10,896 10,630 10,575 10,740 10,741 10,741 — 1,171 2012 — — — 10,760 9,651 9,350 9,412 9,147 9,138 9,140 3 1,001 2013 — — — — 6,657 5,817 5,401 5,736 5,857 5,843 41 508 2014 — — — — — 9,073 7,927 8,016 7,956 7,936 38 593 2015 — — — — — — 19,669 19,723 19,352 19,340 134 1,009 2016 — — — — — — — 17,053 17,898 18,222 202 52 2017 — — — — — — — — 46,892 77,864 1,417 32 2018 — — — — — — — — — 30,601 3,491 5 Total $ 200,766 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Unaudited Audited Accident Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 $ 4,807 $ 7,507 $ 8,470 $ 9,062 $ 9,471 $ 9,570 $ 9,688 $ 10,009 $ 10,007 $ 10,007 2010 — 4,346 8,128 9,036 10,182 10,242 10,327 11,073 11,072 11,072 2011 — — 4,587 8,013 9,444 9,837 10,128 10,740 10,741 10,741 2012 — — — 5,112 7,631 8,242 8,626 9,124 9,126 9,137 2013 — — — — 2,925 4,496 4,811 5,566 5,626 5,802 2014 — — — — — 4,008 6,237 7,868 7,898 7,898 2015 — — — — — — 11,104 18,129 18,817 18,970 2016 — — — — — — — 12,432 16,116 17,111 2017 — — — — — — — — 37,127 68,994 2018 — — — — — — — — — 24,105 Total $ 183,837 All outstanding liabilities before 2009, net of reinsurance — Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 16,929 The following is supplementary information about average historical claims duration as of December 31, 2018 . Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance Unaudited Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 51.8 % 28.3 % 7.0 % 5.5 % 2.3 % 2.1 % 2.0 % 1.0 % — % — % The reconciliation of the net incurred and paid claims development tables to the liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses in the consolidated statement of financial position is as follows. December 31, 2018 2017 Net outstanding liabilities Personal Homeowners’ Only $ 97,238 $ 101,544 Commercial Residential Only 57,717 49,810 All other lines of business 16,929 12,384 Liabilities for unpaid claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 171,884 $ 163,738 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid claims Personal Homeowners’ Only $ 318,678 $ 131,581 Commercial Residential Only 155,717 165,313 All other lines of business 3,475 8,779 Total reinsurance recoverable on unpaid claims $ 477,870 $ 305,673 Unallocated claims adjustment expenses 11,449 12,821 Total gross liability for unpaid claims and claims adjustment expense $ 661,203 $ 482,232 The table below shows the analysis of our reserve for unpaid losses for each of our last three fiscal years on a GAAP basis: 2018 2017 2016 Balance at January 1 $ 482,232 $ 140,855 $ 76,792 Less: reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses 305,673 18,724 2,114 Net balance at January 1 $ 176,559 $ 122,131 $ 74,678 Acquired reserves, net of reinsurance recoverables (1) — 40,299 22,576 Incurred related to: Current year 404,271 368,148 281,365 Prior years 4,318 (2,613 ) 16,988 Total incurred $ 408,589 $ 365,535 $ 298,353 Paid related to: Current year 283,821 256,134 210,970 Prior years 117,994 95,272 62,506 Total paid $ 401,815 $ 351,406 $ 273,476 Net balance at December 31 $ 183,333 $ 176,559 $ 122,131 Plus: reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses 477,870 305,673 18,724 Balance at December 31 $ 661,203 $ 482,232 $ 140,855 Composition of reserve for unpaid losses and LAE: Case reserves $ 270,601 $ 236,253 $ 83,447 IBNR reserves 390,602 245,979 57,408 Balance at December 31 $ 661,203 $ 482,232 $ 140,855 (1) Acquired reserves, net of reinsurance recoverables of $19,945,000 for 2017 and $2,391,000 for 2016 related to our acquisitions of AmCo and IIC, respectively. Based upon our internal analysis and our review of the statement of actuarial opinion provided by our actuarial consultants, we believe that the reserve for unpaid losses reasonably represents the amount necessary to pay all claims and related expenses which may arise from incidents that have occurred as of the balance sheet date. As reflected by our losses incurred related to prior years, the unfavorable development experienced in 2018 was primarily the result of losses related to the 2017 accident year coming in worse than expected and the favorable development in 2017 was primarily the result of losses related to the 2016 accident years coming in better than expected. During 2016, we had a reserve deficiency. Since we place substantial reliance on loss-development-based actuarial models when determining our estimate of ultimate losses, the deficiencies resulted from additional development on prior accident years which caused our ultimate losses to increase. |
