Investor Presentation December 2008 Investor Presentation December 2008 Exhibit 99.1 |
Certain statements in this presentation, and other written or oral statements made by or on behalf of us, are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Statements regarding future events and developments and our future performance, as well as management’s expectations, beliefs, plans, estimates or projections relating to the future, including statements regarding guidance, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of these laws. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that our expectations will be realized. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control that could cause actual results to differ materially and adversely from such statements. These risks and uncertainties include: changes in the price of potash or langbeinite; operational difficulties at our facilities; changes in demand and/or supply for potash or langbeinite; changes in our reserve estimates; our ability to achieve the initiatives of our business strategy, including but not limited to the development of the HB Mine as a solution mine; changes in the prices of our raw materials, including but not limited to the price of natural gas; fluctuations in the costs of transporting our products to customers; changes in labor costs and availability of labor with mining expertise; the impact of federal, state or local government regulations, including but not limited to environmental and mining regulations; competition in the fertilizer industry; declines in U.S. or world agricultural production; declines in oil and gas drilling; changes in economic conditions; adverse weather events at our facilities; our ability to comply with covenants inherent in our current and future debt obligations to avoid defaulting under those agreements and the risk factors detailed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Please refer to those filings for more information on these risk factors. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as the result of future events, new information or otherwise. Forward-Looking Information |
Intrepid Potash Strategically Located, Potash-Only Company Intrepid Potash Strategically Located, Potash-Only Company Intrepid has an intense production focus: Improve reliability and efficiency Increase production of incrementally lower-cost volumes Innovate production methods Our production focus combined with earnings leverage to potash price delivers margin Florida New Mexico Texas Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska South Dakota Montana Wyoming Colorado Utah Idaho Arizona Nevada Washington California Oregon Kentucky Maine New York Pennsylvania Michigan Vermont New Hampshire Virginia West Virginia Ohio Indiana Illinois North Carolina Tennessee South Carolina Alabama Mississippi Arkansas Louisiana Missouri Iowa Minnesota Wisconsin Georgia North Dakota HB Developmental Asset Operating Solar Evaporation Solution Mine Operating Conventional Mine North Mine Developmental Asset |
Company Overview Company Overview The largest U.S. producer of potash or potassium fertilizer – Only Western world producer created and dedicated solely to potash-related products – Supplies 1.5% of Global demand and 8.5% of U.S. demand 1 of 2 global exporters of sulfate of potash magnesia, or langbeinite (Intrepid Trio™) 5 active production facilities – Nameplate capacity of 1.2MM tons of potash and 0.25MM tons of langbeinite Strong balance sheet 774 employees as of October 31, 2008 Over 280 customers |
Pro Forma EBITDA 1 (In millions) $55.1 $36.2 $11.8 $12.2 $8.2 $8.2 $83.7 $0.0 $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0 $60.0 $70.0 $80.0 $90.0 $100.0 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% A Strong Cash Position, Zero Debt, and Cash Flows A Strong Cash Position, Zero Debt, and Cash Flows Balance Sheet as of September 30, 2008 1 Non-GAAP reconciliation available Cash and cash equivalents $139 million Debt Outstanding $ - Availability under the Credit Line $125 million |
Building Upon Our History of Value Creation Through Innovation Building Upon Our History of Value Creation Through Innovation February 2004: Acquired Carlsbad facilities from Mississippi Chemical April 2004: Acquired Wendover facility from Reilly Chemical February 2000: Acquired Moab facility from Potash Corp. 2008: Anticipated launch of Phase 1 of the HB Mine 2000 2005 2006 2008 2007 2004 2004: Doubled Moab production by being first to use horizontal drilling methods 2007 and 2008: Build out of management team to execute growth plan August 2005: Began langbeinite production by building first-of-its- kind plant in Carlsbad $104 Million Invested Since Inception to Improve and Expand Facilities September 2004: Built deep brine well at Wendover Years added to Mine Years added to Mine Life: 120 Life: 120 Years added to Mine Years added to Mine Life: 30 Life: 30 Years added to Mine Years added to Mine Life: 59 Life: 59 Years added to Mine Years added to Mine Life: 28 Life: 28 |
The Intrepid Potash Growth Story The Intrepid Potash Growth Story Multiple organic growth projects in place to expand production at our existing facilities Significant increase in potash pricing environment Attractive development assets Narrowing the gap between effective and nameplate capacity (1) 2010 and 2011 estimates include HB Mine production (2) FOB list price Carlsbad red granular potash price Intrepid Potash List Price ($ per ton) (2) Intrepid Production Capacity (‘000 tons) (1) Potash 2007 2008 $800 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N 600 900 1,200 1,500 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E Effective Nameplate |
Why Consider an Investment in Intrepid Potash Why Consider an Investment in Intrepid Potash Strong Long-Term Industry Fundamentals The Only Western World Potash Pure-Play Attractive Leverage to Potash Price Strategically Located Assets Diversified Markets and Customer Base Well-Defined, Attractive Organic Growth Opportunities Long-Life Reserves Experienced Management Team with Significant Equity Ownership |
Demand and Supply Conditions Have Created Robust Pricing Environment Demand and Supply Conditions Have Created Robust Pricing Environment Historical Potash Prices Source: Green Markets, Fertecon, IPNI Notes: (1) Posted price for red granular potash as of 11/17/2008 Example Prices ($ / ton) $816 contract as of November 2008 Japan (cfr Japanese port) $843 spot U.S. Midwest (fob warehouse) $1,003 spot Brazil (cfr Brazilian port) $590 contract as of April 2008 China (cfr Chinese port) $625 contract as of November 4, 2008 India (cfr Indian port) $800 spot Carlsbad (fob mine) (1) $776 spot Saskatchewan (fob mine) Dec. 2006: Russian mine flood removes 1.3MM tons of KCL 1991: Collapse of Soviet Union 2006: Canpotex concludes pricing negotiations with China 1997: Potacan mine flood removes 0.8MM tons of KCL 1986: Berezinski 3 mine flood removes 1.8MM tons of KCL 2000: Acquisition of Moab 2004: Acquisition of Carlsbad and Wendover Aug. 2008: Labor strike at three Potash Corp. mines Aug. 2008: Record low potash inventories 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2002 2004 2006 2008 |
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Since January 2006 Minimal Potash Price Volatility Minimal Potash Price Volatility 57 Corn 0 Potash 59 Gold 66 Crude Oil 80 Nickel Number of Weekly Price Declines (1) Source: Bloomberg, Green Markets Notes: (1) Number of weeks declined out of the last 149 weeks; As of 11/3/08 Indexed Potash Prices Compared to Commodity Prices Nickel Corn Potash Gold Crude Oil |
Potash has the Best Fundamentals Potash has the Best Fundamentals Source: Green Markets Notes: (1) Number of weeks declined out of the last 46 weeks, As of 11/17/2008 Since January 2008 Indexed Potash Prices Compared to Other Fertilizers Prices 0 Potash 13 DAP 18 Urea Number of Weekly Price Declines (1) Urea (U.S. Gulf Prill Import) DAP (New Orleans Barge) Potash (Carlsbad) 50 100 150 200 250 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 |
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 IPI Produces and Sells Potash Not Oil IPI Produces and Sells Potash Not Oil Intrepid Stock Price Compared to Commodity Prices 0.94 0.94 (0.69) IPI Crude Oil Corn Potash Correlation – The price of potash drives IPI earnings – Reductions in the price of crude, complementary fertilizers, and natural gas help our business Sources: Bloomberg, Green Markets, As of 11/3/2008 Potash Crude Oil IPI Stock Corn Potash Price of $800 for October ‘08 Potash Price of $503 at IPO |
600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Increasing Population and Meat Consumption Driving Record Grain Demand, Prices Increasing Population and Meat Consumption Driving Record Grain Demand, Prices Note: Grains include corn, wheat, barley, oats and sorghum. Stock to use ratio is average inventory / consumption for that year; data updated monthly Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), PPI, IFA, Fertecon (1) Futures prices based on Closing price of Chicago Board of Trade futures contracts as of 11/17/08; futures prices for December delivery in forecast years. Grain Production Stock to Use Ratio World Grain Production and Stock to Use Ratios Hectares of Arable Land per Person Crop Prices Over Time (1) World Population vs. Fertilizer and Meat Consumption CBOT World NPK Fertilizer Consumption World Population World Meat Consumption 2010E 5 Year Average 5 Year Average Current Current March 2009 March 2009 Soybeans: $7.40 Soybeans: $7.40 $8.78 $9.23 $8.78 $9.23 Wheat: $4.62 $5.39 Wheat: $4.62 $5.39 $5.60 $5.60 Corn: $2.99 $3.84 Corn: $2.99 $3.84 $4.01 $4.01 E 0.38 0.32 0.29 0.25 0.22 0.21 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010E 2020E $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008E Wheat All Corn Soybeans 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005E 2010E 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 |
In spite of financial crisis, population growth continues Assuming a 1.17% growth rate in world population: – Each day - 220,000 more people A city the size of Baton Rouge, LA – Each week – 1.5 million more people Another Philadelphia, PA – Each year – 80 million more people Approximately 10 more New York Cities Potash Deliveries Track Population Growth Potash Deliveries Track Population Growth Source: FERTECON, US Census Bureau Historical CAGRs (%) Potash Deliveries 5-Year Forward CAGRS (2008 – 2012) 11.9% 6.0% China India 4.2% Brazil Since 1962 2.8% 2.5% World Potash Consumption ex. FSU World Potash Consumption Since 2000 3.6% 3.5% Collapse of Soviet Union India / China GDP Growth NA 9.5% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008E 2011E 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 World World ex. FSU |
(1) Does not include fixed costs. Operating costs are defined as: seed fertilizer, pesticides and herbicides, custom operations, fuel, lube, electricity, repairs, purchased irrigation water, interest on operating capital, and labor (2) Profit includes both fixed and variable costs. Government subsidies are not included Source: USDA, Potash Corp., Green Markets, Morgan Stanley Research Strong Returns Continue for Corn Growers Strong Returns Continue for Corn Growers Corn Farmer Revenue Less Operating Costs (1) Corn Farmer Pre-tax Profit per Bushel (2) $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 -$1.50 -$1.00 -$0.50 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 |
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Fertecon, Intrepid Potash, and public filings Tight Supply Fundamentals Through 2012 Tight Supply Fundamentals Through 2012 World Potash Production vs. Consumption Growth Assumes 92% Industry Operating Rate For New & Existing Supply 3.5% Fertecon Demand Growth Estimate Cumulative Announced Capacity Increases 2007 Existing Supply (Assumes no mine disruption, depletion, flooding, etc.) 5.0% Demand Growth Russian Mine Flood Inventory Drawdown in 2007 Potential future production shortfalls |
Source: Public filings and select country data from IFA (1) 2007 figures are for December 2006 through November 2007. Mosaic’s fiscal year ends on May 31. (2) PCS has ownership stake. (3) PCS markets Intrepid Potash’s products outside North America. (4) Compass Minerals produces potassium sulfate (SOP), which does not compete directly with MOP. Compass Minerals’ SOP is produced both directly and by reprocessing MOP purchased from other producers. Estimated reprocessed production is excluded from the figures for Compass Minerals. Few Global Producers, With Strong Balance Sheets Few Global Producers, With Strong Balance Sheets (2) (3) (2) (2) (1) (4) Production Share Canpotex BPC 1.5% – Net Debt/Market Capitalization averages 9.2% across all public companies PCS Affiliates BPC Canpotex RoW Intrepid 28.5% 13.4% 23.8 32.7% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 PCS Mosaic Agrium Belaruskali Uralkali K&S Silvinit ICL China APC Intrepid SQM Vale Compass |
Intrepid Is Currently Evaluating Production Levels Intrepid Is Currently Evaluating Production Levels Global Production and North American Inventory Levels Source: IPNI, Fertecon, Intrepid Potash Global Production Potash Inventory Trendline Risks to Production – Supply Shocks – Delays in Projects – Labor Shortage/Disputes – Depletion – Current market conditions may have an impact on inventories – Global production cuts likely to occur as inventories build ? 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 |
Why Potash Only? Why Potash Only? More Difficult Least Difficult Most Difficult Logistics for Greenfield 24% 59% 17% % of Overall Fertilizer Market $1.5Bn for 1.1MM Tons $1.0Bn for 1.1MM Tons $2.8Bn for 2.2MM Tons Estimated Cost for Greenfield (3) Phosphate (4) Nitrogen Potash 3 – 4 years 3 years 5 – 7 years Time for Greenfield 81% Phosphoric Acid 82% Phosphate Rock 86% Ammonia 89% Urea 85% Potash (93% Effective Capacity) (2) Industry Nameplate Operating Rate (1) 47% 57% 19% % of Production Government Controlled 41% Phosphoric Acid 49% Phosphate Rock 13% Ammonia 39% Urea 64% Market Share of Top 5 Producers (1) Phosphate rock Sulfuric acid Ammonia Natural gas Potash ore Key Inputs ~44 ~60 12 Producing Countries Market Structure for Key Fertilizer Nutrients (1) Potash percentage represents 2007, nitrogen and phosphate percentages represent 2005 figures from Integer. (2) Estimated by Intrepid Potash from historic production. Operating capacity rates for nitrogen and phosphate expressed as percentage of nameplate capacity. Effective capacity for potash estimated based on historic production. (3) Does not include infrastructure outside the plant gates (e.g. rail, road networks, utility systems). (4) Includes all types of phosphate fertilizer production. |
Current Market Considerations Current Market Considerations Global Buyer Hesitation Building Producer Inventories Elective Production Curtailments Potential Intrepid Management Actions Maintain Strong Balance Sheet Actively Monitor Market Environment to Avoid Excessive Build of Inventory Elective Production Curtailments Through the Remainder of 2008 Deferral of Discretionary Maintenance Projects Continue to Focus on Margins |
Potash Salt COMPO Fertiva Complementar y Business Agrium Potash Nitrogen Phosphates Other The Only Western World Potash Pure-Play The Only Western World Potash Pure-Play K+S Potash Potash Phosphates Nitrogen Potash Corp Mosaic Uralkali 100% Potash Intrepid Comparables Revenue by Product - North America Comparables Revenue by Product - International ICL 19% 49% 31% Potash Fertilizer & Phosphates Chemicals & Others Advanced Technologies Nitrogen Phosphates Retail Potash Source: Intrepid Potash, company websites and 2007 company financials Complementary Business 4% 6% 33% 9% 48% 31% 34% 34% 100% 52% 22% 24% 2% 16% 4% 19% 18% 42% |
Strategically Located Assets Strategically Located Assets Average Potash Consumption Over 5x Greater than Production in Our Markets Intrepid Mine Location Low High Total KCL Equivalent Consumption in Region = 5.6MM Tons Total Intrepid Potash’s Effective KCL Capacity in Production = 1.0MM Tons Source: Association of American Plant Food Control Officials (AAPFCO), TFI; Intrepid Potash New Mexico Texas Oklahoma Kansas Colorado Mississippi Arkansas Louisiana Idaho Washington Oregon Nebraska Missouri Iowa Illinois California Wyoming Utah Arizona Nevada |
Strategically Located: Location, Tax Advantage, and Leverage to Potash Price Strategically Located: Location, Tax Advantage, and Leverage to Potash Price (2) (2) Source: Green Markets and Fertecon Notes: (1) Based on most recently reported quarters for Intrepid Potash Inc., Potash Crop., Mosaic Co., Agrium Inc. (2) Adjusted COGS include: Cash operating costs, including all royalty, profit and capital taxes; Royalties of $21 per ton for Intrepid; Royalty, profit and capital taxes of $107 per ton for N. American Competitors Intrepid vs. North American Competitors Most Recently Reported Quarter ($ per ton) Intrepid’s Advantage Most Recently Reported Quarter ($ per ton) (1) Our 3.5% net sales royalty rate is significantly lower than royalty and resource tax burden of our principal competitors 99 10 + = 623 524 (213) (223) 0 200 400 600 800 Realized Price Adjusted COGS Intrepid N. American Competitors 99 10 109 0 30 60 90 120 Realized Price Adjusted COGS Gross Margin Advantage |
We sell Potash into 3 different markets: Agricultural, Industrial and Feed – Agricultural represents 64% of Intrepid sales compared to an industry average of 95% Agricultural primarily consumes granular potash, industrial primarily consumes standard potash – Standard potash costs less to produce – Pricing similar across segments Industrial primarily consists of oil and gas drillers, a segment historically characterized by steady demand Industrial customers rely on spot market sales and just-in-time delivery YTD 2008 Intrepid Potash Sales (1) Industrial Agricultural Feed Diversified Markets and Customer Base Diversified Markets and Customer Base (1) Year-to-date through the third quarter ended 9/30/2008 (2) Source: IFA 28% 8% 64% (2) Includes: Barley Corn Cotton Hay Nuts Rice Soybeans Vegetables Wheat |
Low-Cost, Solar Evaporation Assets Low-Cost, Solar Evaporation Assets |
$446 per ton Capex to reopen an existing mine compared to an estimated cost of ~$1,200 per ton for greenfield projects HB expected to be among the lower-cost potash mines in North America – Same proven solar evaporation and solution mining technology as used in Moab – Will share infrastructure with existing Carlsbad operations – Production cost per ton estimated to be $65 to $70 per ton (1) – Estimated-annual-production-–-150,000-200,000-tons Filed permit application in March 2008; Mine plan submitted to the BLM in May 2008, Environmental assessment sent to the BLM in August 2008 Production planned to begin 12 months after permit approval Total area available to be flooded: 1.3x size of Manhattan HB Potash Solution Mine: Innovate and Increase HB Potash Solution Mine: Innovate and Increase Potash Pillar (1) Based on third party feasibility study |
Q1 2010 East Q1 2010 $125 80 $10,000 – $15,000 Langbeinite Recovery Flotation Project 279 $106,500 – $121,000 Incremental Potash Production from Existing Facilities & HB Mine Langbeinite Debottlenecking and Expansion Projects at Existing Facilities Q2 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Estimated time of Production Potash Debottlenecking and Expansion Projects at Existing Facilities $446 175 $78,000 – $88,000 HB HB Solution Mine $324 359 $116,500 – $136,000 Impact of Current projects 80 $10,000 – $15,000 Additional Langbeinite Production $222 18 $4,000 – $5,000 Q4 2008 Wendover Deep Brine Wells $500 10 $5,000 – $6,000 Q4 2008 Moab Additional Caverns $400 15 $6,000 – $7,000 Q4 2008 East Thickener Upgrade $278 9 $2,500 – $3,000 Q1 2009 West Columnar Flotation $212 52 $11,000 – $12,000 H1 2009 West Storage and Hoisting Capacity Upgrade $ Capital/ Ton of Capacity ($/Ton) Additional Product Tons (000s Tons) Estimate on Capital ($000s) Estimated Facility Capital Estimates ($MM) Well-Defined Attractive Growth Opportunities to Increase Production Well-Defined Attractive Growth Opportunities to Increase Production 2008 Capex budget is $80 to $95 million, $25 to $35 million of which will fund portions of the projects listed above |
Opportunity at the North Mine Opportunity at the North Mine Current infrastructure allows North Mine to reopen at a capital cost much less than a greenfield project – Full conventional underground mine and process facility, idled in early 1980’s – Two concrete lined shafts, utilities, brine disposal, tailings disposal and other infrastructure already in place Technology advances in underground mining expected to make North Mine more efficient than in previous years – The North Mine was producing between 300,000 and 350,000 tons of MOP per year at the time of shutdown |
17,061 Low-Cost, Low-Sovereign Risk Expansions Low-Cost, Low-Sovereign Risk Expansions Capital Cost Curve for Announced Potash Expansion Projects Incremental Annual Production Capacity (2) MOS / PCS / Intrepid PCS Rio Tinto (Argentina) MagMinerals (Congo) Greenfield Project Greenfield Project Intrepid Greenfield (HB) Intrepid Greenfield (HB) Brownfield Project Brownfield Project Intrepid Brownfield Intrepid Brownfield Notes: (1) Annual KCl production per year (2) Thousand tons of KCl Mosaic 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 |
Intrepid 2008 Guidance as of Nov. 11, 2008; However, the Market Seems to be Changing Intrepid 2008 Guidance as of Nov. 11, 2008; However, the Market Seems to be Changing Production: – Potash 850,000 to 870,000 tons – Langbeinite (Trio™) 200,000 to 215,000 tons Cash Cost of Goods Sold excluding royalties and by-product credits: – Potash $155 to $165 per ton – Langbeinite $75 to $85 per ton Capital Investment of $80 to $95MM – $45 to $50 million to sustain and improve existing assets – $25 to $35 million to increase production – $10 million to reconstruct warehouse (reimbursed by insurance) Average royalty rate of 3.5 percent of net sales revenue. No profit taxes or capital taxes. Impact of Potential Management Actions – Lower Production Levels – Higher Inventory Levels – Higher Cash Cost of Goods Sold Due to Fixed Cost Structure Note: Market conditions may require management actions that could influence this guidance |
Why Consider an Investment in Intrepid Potash Why Consider an Investment in Intrepid Potash Strong Long-Term Industry Fundamentals The Only Western World Potash Pure-Play Attractive Leverage to Potash Price Strategically Located Assets Diversified Markets and Customer Base Well-Defined, Attractive Organic Growth Opportunities Long-Life Reserves Experienced Management Team with Significant Equity Ownership |
Appendix Appendix |
Innovate and Increase Production Innovate and Increase Production 93 30 2,800 Q1 2008 East Additional Operating Panel Unique and Innovative Growth Projects Completed Since 2002 200 10 2,000 Q3 2008 Wendover 2 nd Deep Brine Well 91 220 20,000 Q3 2005 East Langbeinite Plant 150 10 1,500 Q1 2005 Wendover 1 st Deep Brine Well 250 20 5,000 Q4 2005 Moab 2 nd Horizontal Potash Cavern 125 40 5,000 Q4 2004 Moab 1 Horizontal Potash Cavern $ Capital/ Ton of Capacity ($/Ton) Additional Product Tons (000’s Tons) Capital ($000’s) Completed Facility st |
Improvements: Reliability and Efficiency Improvements: Reliability and Efficiency Installed Mincom enterprise resource planning and asset management software to improve maintenance and mine planning functions Upgraded lab equipment to enhance ability to respond to changes in ore feed and product quality, to include: additions of an x-ray diffraction analyzer, an inductively coupled plasma (ICP) spectrometer, an ion chromatograph, and a new particle size analyzer 3-D seismic surveys and oil and gas logs to delineate potash ore zones New state-of-the-art control panels to replace outmoded control equipment Carlsbad- Implemented a Behavior Based Safety Program Detailed Process analysis and improved maintenance planning Selected to be in MSHA Partnership program General Capital Improvements / Corporate / IT Purchased high productivity mining equipment modified for potash extraction from original its configuration intended for coal mining applications Conducted detailed risk assessment, implementing recommendations Carlsbad, NM Installed innovative processing facility to allow for the co-production of potash and langbeinite from one ore feed Installed state-of-the-art wireless communications systems to increase safety, improve productivity and allow for future technology additions Process optimization and improved recovery; K analyzer controls Significantly upgrade storage warehouses East Mine, NM Installed new flotation equipment to improve potash recovery Installed state-of-the-art wireless communications systems to increase safety, improve productivity and allow for future technology additions Upgrade skips and hoist Upgrade brine and tails system West Mine, NM Drilled and completed two corrosion-resistant deep-brine wells Installed new flotation equipment to improve potash recovery Replaced product dryer to increase throughput and allow fuel switching Debottleneck Mill Upgraded sizing and compaction Wendover, UT Drilled and completed first potash horizontal solution mining caverns Refurbish warehouses Upgraded electrical system Optimized potash and tails leaching Moab, UT Project Description Location |
Long-Life Reserves (1) Long-Life Reserves (1) Conventional Solar 93 120 30 Shallow Brine 1932 Wendover - - 28 Solution 2009E HB Solution Mine (2) 440 510 122 Underground 1931 Carlsbad West 210 250 43 Underground 1965 Carlsbad East Sulfate of Potash Magnesia (Langbeinite) 966 1,200 Total Muriate of Potash 340 390 42 Underground 1965 Carlsbad East 93 180 124 Solution 1965 Moab Muriate of Potash Current Annual Effective Capacity in Potash Product Tons Current Annual Nameplate Capacity in Potash Product Tons Minimum Remaining Life (years) Current Extraction Method Date Mine Opened Product / Operations (1) Based upon reserves as estimated by Agapito Associates in accordance with SEC requirements. (2) The Carlsbad HB Solution Mine reserves are based on the planned flooding of 4,400 of the 21,600 acres of the old mine workings and recovery of potash from the residual pillars only with the brine extracted using submersible pumps. Debottlenecking effective capacity brings on new low-cost tons |
Mines Currently With Less than 15 Years Reserve Life Historical Depleted Mines Potash operations at Mosaic’s Hersey facility will be discontinued in the first half of 2008 Mosaic, Carlsbad Boulby, England Soligorsk I, Belarussia Taquari, Brazil Theodore, Amelie, Marie Louis mines in France Pasquasi and San Cataldo mines in Italy Salzdetfurth, Friedrichshall, Bergmannssegen-Hugo, Siegfried-Giesen, and Niedersachen-Riedel German mines Trona, California Several West German / East German mines Horizon-Amax, Wills-Weaver, Saunders in Carlsbad Source: Fertecon, Intrepid Potash, and public filings Global Industry Susceptible to Production Interruptions & Supply “Shocks” Global Industry Susceptible to Production Interruptions & Supply “Shocks” Mine Closures Due to Water Inflows PCA (Patience Lake) (0.8MM tons KCL / yr) Potacan mine (0.8MM tons KCL / yr) Mines with Water Inflows • K2 Mine Esterhazy • Penobsquis Mine, Sussex St. Paul mine (Congo) (0.8MM tons KCL / yr) 1980 1984 1988 1996 2000 2007 2004 1992 1976 Berezniki I (1.3MM tons KCL / yr) Berezniki 3 mine (1.8MM tons KCL / yr) Mine Closures Due to Depletion In the 70 plus years of potash mining in the Carlsbad area there has never been a mine lost to flooding or a water incursion due to geologic differences |
Demand Growth from BRICs Reaching Recommended Application Levels Demand Growth from BRICs Reaching Recommended Application Levels China Brazil India Source: IPNI, Potash Corp Goal to attain self-sufficiency of food supply History of under application of potash Need to increase yields Increasing land use for agricultural purposes Current Potential Current Potential Current Potential |
Fertilizer Use Far Below Recommended Rates Fertilizer Use Far Below Recommended Rates Source: Morgan Stanley, Agricultural Products Research, September 4, 2008 146% Shortfall 86% Shortfall 288% Shortfall Global Application Rates (lb/acre) 60 112 24 59 17 66 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Nitrogen Phosphate Potash Current Application Rate Scientifically Recommended Rate |
Solar Evaporation and Solution Mining Technology Solar Evaporation and Solution Mining Technology - Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Corp - Compass Minerals 1970 Intrepid Moab 1932 Intrepid Wendover - Rincon Salar 1996 SQM Salar 1973 Arab Potash Company 1970 Dead Sea Works (ICL) Year Opened Existing Solar Evaporation Facility 1970 Intrepid Moab 1989 Patience Lake 1964 Belle Plaine Year Opened Existing Solution Mining Facility |
Carlsbad Potash Area Carlsbad Potash Area |
HB– Phase I Potash Mine Flood Area HB– Phase I Potash Mine Flood Area |
Conversion Rates Conversion Rates 1 metric tonne = 1.102 short tons 1 product ton of potash (KCL or KCL Equivalent) = 61% K 2 0 1 product ton of langbeinite = 22% K 2 0 1 product ton of SOP = 50% K 2 0 |
Select Pro Forma Operating Data Select Pro Forma Operating Data Adjusted Pro Forma Net Income (In millions) Pro Forma EBITDA 1 (In millions, except gross margin percentage) 1 Non-GAAP reconciliation available $55.1 $36.2 $11.8 $12.2 $8.2 $8.2 $83.7 21% 29% 23% 24% 40% 57% 62% $0.0 $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0 $60.0 $70.0 $80.0 $90.0 $100.0 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% $2.8 $5.3 $3.1 $15.9 $31.6 $49.8 $4.3 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 |
Select Operating Data Select Operating Data Potash Net Sales Price (Per short ton) Langbeinite Net Sales Price (Per short ton) Granular Lang Current list price $356 per ton Red Granular Current list price $800 per ton $108 $109 $137 $137 $123 $188 $283 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 $178 $182 $193 $224 $295 $425 $623 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 |
Pro Forma EPS Growth as we Capture most of the Price Increases as Earnings Pro Forma EPS Growth as we Capture most of the Price Increases as Earnings Net Sales (In millions) Pro Forma Earnings Per Share (Diluted) $0.05 $0.05 $0.07 $0.06 $0.26 $0.43 $0.66 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 $42.5 $50.8 $47.8 $51.3 $74.2 $99.5 $141.2 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 |
Non-GAAP Reconciliation Non-GAAP Reconciliation Calculation of Pro Forma EBITDA We define EBITDA as income from continuing operations before interest, income taxes, depreciation, depletion, amortization and accretion. EBITDA is used as a supplemental financial measure by our management and by external users of our financial statements to assess: – The financial performance of our assets without regard to financing methods, capital structure or historical cost basis – our operating performance and return on capital as compared to other companies in the fertilizer business, without regard to financing or capital structure; and – the viability of acquisitions and capital expenditure projects and the overall rates of return on alternative investment opportunities Pro forma net income includes the results of the company and its predecessor, as adjusted for stock compensation, interest and income taxes EBITDA is calculated and reconciled to income from continuing operations in the table below: 2008 2007 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Pro Forma Net Income $49,719 $32,446 $19,284 $4,694 $5,358 $4,005 $3,585 Add: Income tax expense 29,474 20,580 12,657 3,082 3,518 2,631 2,355 Add: Interest expense, including derivatives 643 (1,201) 1,433 1,067 1,030 (552) 134 Add: Depreciation, depletion, amortization and accretion 3,076 2,782 2,790 2,968 2,271 2,094 2,135 Add: Write-off of term loan bank fee - 456 - - - - - Add: Impairment Expense 756 - - - - - - Total adjustments 33,949 22,617 16,880 7,117 6,819 4,173 4,624 Pro Forma Earnings Before Income Taxes, Interest Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization $83,668 $55,063 $36,164 $11,811 $12,177 $8,178 $8,209 |
Historical Production and Sales Summary Historical Production and Sales Summary September 30, June 30, March 31, December 31, September 30, June 30, March 31, Production volume (in ‘000 per short tons) Potash 200 210 224 217 233 210 218 Langbeinite 50 58 56 51 40 41 45 Sales volume (in ‘000 per short tons) Potash 204 213 213 215 224 245 209 Langbeinite 50 47 93 26 32 52 48 2007 2008 INTREPID POTASH, INC. SELECTED OPERATIONS DATA (UNAUDITED) (Data in short tons) |
$1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 Fertilizer Cost ($/acre) Corn Growers Continue to Generate a Strong Return on Their Fertilizer Investment Corn Growers Continue to Generate a Strong Return on Their Fertilizer Investment Source: Iowa State University, USDA, IPI, Green Markets Notes: (1) Cash Corn Price as of 11/17/08, DTN Ethanol Center; For Model See Appendix (2) December ’09 Futures Price, CBOT, less $0.35 basis. $875 potash price in 2009 is assumed for modeling purposes and is not an Intrepid price forecast. Corn Growers’ Margins on Fertilizer 2008 Crop Break-Even Line Potash Input Costs 2009E 2008E Corn Crop $875 $325 Potash Cost ($/ton) 4 - 6% 2 - 3% % of Corn Growers’ Input Costs – A $100 increase in the price of potash results in a $0.03 increase in fertilizer cost/bu corn – 2008 Crop assumes $325 potash (purchased Q1 ’08), $460 DAP, $450 Urea, and $3.50/bu cash corn (1) Estimated 2009 Crop – 2009 Crop assumes $875 potash (to be purchased Q1 ’09), $525 DAP, $285 Urea, and $4.15/bu corn (2) |
2008 Corn Growers’ Margin Model – 74% ROIC 2008 Corn Growers’ Margin Model – 74% ROIC 2008 Estimate of Fertilizer Return on Corn Source: Iowa State University, USDA, IPNI, Green Markets Nutrient lbs/acre Fertilizer lbs/acre Nutrient Product needed needed $/st $/acre $/bushel N Urea 115 249 450 56 0.36 N DAP 25 Total N 140 P DAP 65 141 460 32 0.21 K KCL 50 83 325 13 0.09 Per Acre Per Bushel Total Fertilizer Cost 101 $ 0.66 $ Cash Corn Price ($/bu) 3.50 $ USDA Forecasted Average Yield with Fertilizer (bu/acre) 154 Average Yield without Fertilizer (bu/acre) 92.4 Positive Yield Impact of Fertilizer (bu/acre) 61.6 Yield Loss without Fertilizer (bu/acre) 40% Variable Cost ($/bu) 0.37 $ Additional Revenue from Fertilizing 216 $ Additional Cost of Fertilizer (101) $ Additional Variable Costs (23) $ Gross Profit 92 $ Pre-Tax ROIC of Fertilizer 74% Farmer's Margin |
2009 Corn Growers’ Margin Model – 99% ROIC 2009 Corn Growers’ Margin Model – 99% ROIC 2009 Estimate of Fertilizer Return on Corn (1) $875 potash price paid by the grower in 2009 is assumed for modeling purposes and is not an Intrepid price forecast. (2) Corn Price $/bu is computed as the Dec. ’09 futures price less $0.35 basis Source: Iowa State University, USDA, IPNI, Green Markets (1) (2) Nutrient lbs/acre Fertilizer lbs/acre Nutrient Product needed needed $/st $/acre $/bushel N Urea 115 249 285 35 0.23 N DAP 25 Total N 140 P DAP 65 141 525 37 0.24 K KCL 50 83 875 36 0.23 Per Acre Per Bushel Total Fertilizer Cost 108 $ 0.69 $ Corn Price $/bu 4.15 $ USDA Forecasted Average Yield with Fertilizer (bu/acre) 157.3 Average Yield without Fertilizer (bu/acre) 94.4 Positive Yield Impact of Fertilizer (bu/acre) 62.9 Yield Loss without Fertilizer (bu/acre) 40% Variable Cost ($/bu) 0.37 $ Additional Revenue from Fertilizing 261 $ Additional Cost of Fertilizer (108) $ Additional Variable Costs (23) $ Gross Profit 130 $ Pre-Tax ROIC of Fertilizer 99% Farmer's Margin |