ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION FQ3 2018 EARNINGS CALL | NOV 01, 2018 Entering the fourth quarter of 2018, we expect to begin generating considerable free cash flow, a majority of which will be returned to shareholders during the period. At today's share price, buying back shares is an attractive use of capital as it is highly accretive to NAV. With that, I will turn it over to Glen for his comments. Glen C. Warren Co-Founder, President, CFO, Secretary & Director Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everyone. Let me begin with our key financial achievements from the quarter. I'll then shift focus to the fourth quarter, which is a key inflection point for Antero as we begin generating sustained free cash flow and returning a significant portion of that capital to shareholders through our recently announced share repurchase program. I'll also finish by touching on 2019 briefly. During the third quarter, net production averaged a record 2.718 Bcfe per day, delivering 17% year-over-year growth and 8% sequential growth, including a record 129,000 barrels a day of liquids. Liquids production increased 14% sequentially, reflecting a continued emphasis on developing our liquids-rich acreage. Liquids production included 10,632 barrels a day of oil, 79,819 barrels a day of C3+ NGLs and 38,901 barrels a day of ethane, all new records for Antero. During the third quarter, Antero's realized natural gas price was $2.95 per Mcf before hedges, representing a $0.05 per Mcf premium to the average NYMEX Henry Hub price. This marks the 17th consecutive quarter that we delivered pre-hedged natural gas realizations at a premium to the Henry Hub per MMBtu price. Moving on to liquids pricing during the quarter, we realized an unhedged C3+ NGL price, that's propane and heavier, of $38.41 per barrel, representing a 33% increase from the prior year quarter. We expect the strength in NGL prices to continue as we currently forecast ME2 to be operational during the fourth quarter of 2018, which will give us access to the premium-priced international markets. As a reminder, every $5 per barrel increase in NGL prices results in an incremental $170 million in revenue to Antero on an annualized basis. As shown on Slide #8, our liquids production growth profile, when combined with pricing improvement, drives compounding exposure to improving NGL prices. The outlook for ethane pricing also looks positive with the recent increase in Mont Belvieu prices. If ethane remains economically attractive with the addition of a new 20,000 barrel a day de-eth at Sherwood in the fourth quarter, we have upside to recover volumes of up to an average of 45,000 to 50,000 barrels a day during the fourth quarter, with further upside to 55,000 to 60,000 barrels a day in 2019. To quantify the pricing impact, each $0.10 increase per gallon in Mont Belvieu ethane pricing results in approximately $40 million in incremental revenue to Antero on an annualized basis. As you can see on Slide #9 titled: A Top U.S. Producer, Antero is the top NGL producer in the U.S. based on full year 2018 consensus estimates and also third quarter numbers, so far, even when compared to the large cap E&Ps and integrated oil companies. Now I'd like to briefly touch on our financial highlights for the quarter. Antero led its peer group once again in realized pricing as you can see on Slide #10 titled: The Leader in All-In Realized Pricing in Appalachia. Antero generated stand-alone adjusted EBITDAX of $419 million, a 48% increase over the year-ago period. Stand-alone adjusted operating cash flow was $362 million, 63% higher than the year-ago period, driven primarily by higher natural gas and liquids production and favorable liquids prices. Slide #11 highlights our historical consistency in being a peer leader when comparing stand-alone EBITDAX margin to our Appalachian peer group. Our strategy, integrated strategy, has positioned Antero as a leader in EBITDAX margin for almost 6 years. Our stand-alone adjusted EBITDAX margin was $1.68 per Mcfe, a 26% increase from the prior year period. This outperformance and consistency is a direct result of AR's industry-leading NGL exposure firm transportation portfolio to attractive markets, hedged portfolio and integrated midstream business. As a reminder, we are the only U.S. producer that is 100% hedged on expected natural gas production for the remainder of 2018 and all of 2019, and we're hedged at $3.50 per MMBtu. Copyright © 2018 S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. All Rights reserved. 6 spglobal.com/marketintelligence
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