Page 10 August 1, 2011 Big Drivers in US Defense and Foreign Policy Afghanistan “What we can do, and will do, is build a partnership with the Afghan people that endures—one that ensures that we will be able to continue targeting terrorists and supporting a sovereign Obama, 6/22/11 • President Obama provided military commanders maximum flexibility by leaving the surge force in place through the 2011 fighting season. •10,000 end of 2011. Remaining 23,000 will depart by summer of 2012, 70K forces left in country. •Increased Emphasis on building and sustaining long-term Afghan National Security Forces capabilities. • agreement is actively being negotiated. Will include the “non permanent” basing of 25,000 US troops in Afghanistan at 3 major bases and multiple FOBs. • USAID will consolidate at 4 major consulates and at the Embassy in Kabul. • throughout 2014; funding through DoS likely to shrink. The Admin has lowered its FY12 request from $4.3B to $3.2B. Iraq “Iraq is considering the possibility of making a request for some kind of presence to remain there. I have every confidence a request…will be forthcoming at some point.“- Secretary of Defense designate Leon Panetta • Political pressure to make agreement on permanent troop presence – but Panetta upbeat in Senate Confirmation hearing. •The Administration request for State Department funding in Iraq for Fiscal Year 2012 is $6.2 Billion. • State presence will be driven by Congressional budget. • Iraq sent a letter to Congress urging full funding: John Negroponte, Zal Khalilzad, Ryan Crocker and Chris Hill. • Embassy concerns focus on Kurdish/Shia strains over oil, border, and population. Bets are that conflict won’t erupt; Kurds won’t risk current semi-autonomous status. DOD Budget “I want to emphasize that while America is at war and confronts a range of future security threats, it is important to not repeat the mistakes of the past by making drastic and ill- conceived cuts to the overall defense budget.” Secretary of Defense Robert Gates • $670B •Fully funds OCO •O&M budget request is $204B – up $15B from FY08 •Procurement request $111B – down $13B from FY08 equals reset and refurbishment of existing assets; focus on maintaining and upgrading existing platforms and systems. • Latin America Drug War More than 90 percent of the South American cocaine that reaches the United States funnels through Guatemala and across Mexico’s southern border, according to the latest intelligence from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency. Year 2012 is $335M. Focus is capacity building. $20M of the $1.6B Merida initiative aid package to Mexico has been assigned to security for Mexico’s southern border promised to spend $200M in FY12, double FY11 spending, to help Central American countries fight the cartels and regain control of lawless territories. FY12; up from $45M in FY11. “A 2010 cable from US diplomats made public by WikiLeaks reveals Guatemala has only a single helicopter and five pickup trucks to patrol its entire border with Mexico.” that only 125 Mexican immigration officials monitor the country’s 540 mile border with Guatemala. surge troops will be withdrawn Afghan A long-term strategic framework Civilian Advisors from DoS and Civilian advisors will continue to grow U.S. troops to stay after 2011? Civilian footprint? Four former US Ambassadors to Short/Medium-term stability: FY 11 DOD Budget (enacted in CR) FY12 DOD Budget Request – $671B O& M up plus Procurement down Continued DOD Growth Areas vs. US Assistance to Mexico for Fiscal US officials concede that only about The Obama Administration has In the Caribbean Basin, $75M in According to the Washington Post: The US Embassy in Mexico states government.” - President OCO request – $119B New Efficiencies: • Continued growth of rotary-wing systems—Army/Air Force •Reduce non-combat headcount— return to outsourcing? •Divest assets—public/private depot partnerships? Permanent and Expanded Authority for Army Industrial Facilities to Enter into Certain Cooperative Arrangements with Non-Army Entities – 2012 HASC Bill |