financed. Core and headline inflation finished the quarter up 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, from a year earlier, continuing to be
driven by services costs. At the November 1st Federal Open Market Committee Meeting, the Federal Reserve signaled that it
was likely at the end of its tightening cycle, as inflationary pressures had begun to become less pronounced; however, as of the
end of the first quarter of 2024, inflation remains above target, the labor market remains strong, and economic growth is steady,
which has driven uncertainty amongst market participants on the timing and magnitude of any potential rate cuts in 2024. The
market is currently pricing with the expectation of two rate cuts in 2024, down from the peak point of optimism when the
market was pricing in seven rate cuts over the year.
In China, official data indicate the economy surpassed expectations in the first quarter, growing at a 6.6% quarter-
over-quarter annualized rate and 5.3% from a year ago. Although Chinese property markets remained weak, with new floor
space sold ending the quarter down 50% cumulatively from 2021 levels, there are positive signs elsewhere. Momentum in
domestic innovation and the industrial sector indicates a strategic redirection of capital, suggesting a methodical approach to
mitigating the immediate risks posed by the property sector. Package throughput volumes increased significantly relative to
year-ago levels during the quarter, retail sales and foot traffic across our portfolio strengthened in March, and the value added
of high-tech manufacturing rose by 7.5% year-over-year, accelerating 2.6% faster than in the fourth quarter of 2023. In Korea,
broad measures of economic activity indicate that domestic demand momentum continued in the first quarter. Similarly, these
measures in India suggest solid growth as well, with a notable rise in discretionary consumption.
Our data indicate modest improvement in Europe’s economy, with our composite measure of gross domestic product
indicating a roughly flat quarter, and a sizeable dispersion between Germany and the rest of the European economy. German
weakness continues to be concentrated in energy-intensive industrials, while lagging capital and intermediate goods exports to
China have also had a material impact. With new energy realities affecting economic activity and inflation declining more
steadily, the European Central Bank has signaled a willingness to diverge from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s approach regarding
the timing of potential rate cuts, with a rate cut as early as June.
Earnings growth estimates in the U.S. for 2024 have been revised downward throughout the quarter yet remain
significantly higher than in 2023, at an anticipated 11% for the year compared to merely 1% the previous year. Earnings are
estimated to have grown by 5% in the first quarter of 2024, compared to the same period a year ago, led by the communication
services, utilities, consumer discretionary, and information technology sectors. The estimated blended net profit margin for the
fourth quarter of 2023 was reported at 11.7%, slightly higher than the 11.6% margin observed a year earlier.
U.S. equity markets continued to perform well in the first quarter of 2024. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100
rose by 5.6%, 10.2%, and 8.5%, respectively. Though the market continued to benefit from AI-driven momentum, the
appreciation was more broadly distributed compared to last year. In 2023, over 60% of the S&P 500’s gain was driven by the
top seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, and Meta); during the first quarter, these stocks have
contributed just over 35%. Meanwhile, global equity markets also demonstrated strength: the MSCI ACWI, EuroStoxx 600, and
Shanghai Composite returned 7.8%, 7.0%, and 2.2%, respectively. However, despite a strong start to the year, there has been a
significant pullback in equity markets during the early weeks of the second quarter.
Our carry fund portfolio had modest 2% appreciation in the first quarter of 2024. Within our Global Private Equity
segment in the first quarter, our infrastructure and natural resources funds appreciated 2%, our real estate funds appreciated 1%,
and our corporate private equity funds were flat. Our Global Credit carry funds (which represent approximately 11% of the total
Global Credit remaining fair value as of March 31, 2024) appreciated 2% in the first quarter. Carry funds in our Global
Investment Solutions segment appreciated 5% in the first quarter.
Strategic M&A lost some momentum, though to a lesser extent than financial sponsor buyside transactions, with strategic
buyers acquiring assets totaling around $760 billion during the first quarter. While this amount was 19% less than in the
previous quarter, it was approximately 40% larger than the same period last year. As a result, global M&A, including
acquisitions by financial sponsors, amounted to around $825 billion in the first quarter of 2024, the second largest quarterly
volume since the second quarter of 2022. While this hint of momentum is encouraging, the increase is from a very low base.
M&A-related issuance, especially buyouts, remains well below levels observed two years ago due to the elevated cost of debt
and the logjam in sponsor exit activity. Although initial public offerings (IPOs) generally play a comparatively less important
role for divestments, especially on the leveraged buyout (LBO) side, the IPO market is usually considered a good indicator of
the state of the exit market. Globally, signals from this indicator have not been particularly encouraging. Excluding special
purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), global proceeds from IPOs totaled $21.3 billion during the first quarter of 2024, a
16% decrease compared to the same period a year ago and the slowest opening period for global IPOs since 2019. Investment
activity in our carry funds was higher in the first quarter of 2024 than the comparable prior year period. We generated $5.9
billion in realized proceeds from our carry funds and invested $5.0 billion into new or follow-on transactions in our carry funds
during the first quarter of 2024, compared to $4.5 billion and $3.8 billion, respectively, during the first quarter of 2023. In six of