Platinum • JM’s outlook compares negatively versus our current house view. • Our model is premised on peak PGM loadings having already been achieved and a continued decline in the diesel penetration rate in Europe (to 45% in 2017 and 40% by 2020). • Platinum jewellery demand remains a key demand driver which we expect to remain flat YoY in 2017. We anticipate a move to platinum deficits from 2020 onwards 2007a 2008a 2009a 2010a 2011a 2012a 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e Platinum price (US$/oz) 1,331 1,575 1,204 1,612 1,722 1,553 1,490 1,388 1,051 997 1,017 1,109 1,211 1,246 1,380 1,408 1,436 1,465 1,494 Supply: South Africa 5,070 4,515 4,635 4,635 4,855 4,104 4,209 3,546 4,569 4,310 4,430 4,560 4,710 4,725 4,695 4,540 4,375 4,260 4,090 Russia 915 805 785 825 835 801 770 715 670 680 730 730 710 710 710 710 710 710 710 North America 325 325 260 200 350 315 315 336 319 395 395 405 405 410 395 360 360 365 305 Zimbabw e 170 180 226 280 340 337 410 401 401 480 445 445 445 445 445 445 440 425 405 Others 0 0 0 0 100 110 125 125 117 245 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 Total Producer Supply 6,480 5,825 5,906 5,940 6,480 5,667 5,829 5,123 6,076 6,110 6,255 6,395 6,525 6,545 6,500 6,310 6,140 6,015 5,765 Recycling 890 1,130 830 1,085 1,240 1,133 1,192 1,286 1,122 1,240 1,565 1,618 1,639 1,771 1,812 1,803 1,820 1,764 1,761 Total Supply 7,370 6,955 6,736 7,025 7,720 6,800 7,021 6,409 7,198 7,350 7,820 8,013 8,164 8,316 8,312 8,113 7,960 7,779 7,526 Demand: Gross Autocatalyst 4,145 3,655 2,185 3,075 3,185 3,186 3,116 3,354 3,433 3,127 3,046 3,020 2,977 3,235 3,272 3,272 3,253 3,215 3,186 Autocatalyst Recovery -890 -1,130 -830 -1,085 -1,240 -1,133 -1,192 -1,286 -1,122 -1,240 -1,565 -1,618 -1,639 -1,771 -1,812 -1,803 -1,820 -1,764 -1,761 Net Autocatalyst 3,255 2,525 1,355 1,990 1,945 2,053 1,924 2,068 2,311 1,887 1,481 1,402 1,338 1,464 1,460 1,469 1,433 1,451 1,425 Jew ellery (Net) 1,455 1,365 2,245 1,685 1,665 1,888 2,239 2,140 2,253 1,865 1,935 2,042 2,163 2,289 2,452 2,633 2,841 3,080 3,358 Chemical 420 400 290 440 470 451 556 606 528 631 538 509 515 539 553 1,028 1,043 1,050 1,051 Electrical 255 230 180 220 220 156 194 205 201 167 177 192 216 230 234 239 242 245 249 Fuel Cells 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Glass 425 315 10 385 515 167 128 142 223 284 270 319 309 317 333 360 375 390 409 Investment 170 555 660 655 460 450 871 272 451 460 228 228 228 228 228 228 228 228 228 Invest Large Jpn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 200 240 210 170 210 198 213 159 129 145 145 134 107 103 109 113 116 117 117 Medical and Biomedical 230 245 250 230 230 235 227 212 211 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other 265 290 190 300 320 396 417 433 428 899 911 940 983 1,028 1,073 1,124 1,168 1,216 1,245 Total Demand 6,675 6,165 5,390 6,075 6,035 5,994 6,769 6,237 6,735 6,338 5,685 5,766 5,859 6,198 6,442 7,193 7,446 7,777 8,082 Surplus / (Deficit) -195 -341 516 -135 445 -327 -940 -1,114 -659 -228 570 629 666 347 58 -883 -1,306 -1,762 -2,317 Ex-ETF Surplus / (Deficit) -1 -238 900 401 510 -174 -209 -910 -818 -269 59
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