The apartment and single-tenant property types, which are a significant part of our business, have performed relatively well as they have been more stable than the other property types. The hotel sector and parts of the retail sector continue to face headwinds, although we believe segments of each of the sectors appear to have built some momentum. While large destination tourist hotels and those catering to conferences continue to face the severe impact of the pandemic, it appears smaller drivable vacation hotels have partially recovered. In the retail sector, older enclosed shopping malls, experiential retail, gyms, movie theaters and
sit-down
dining restaurants have faced extensive difficulties while restaurants with drive-thru facilities, necessity and discount retailers as well as pharmacies have in many cases partially recovered. Suburban office and apartment properties have generally outperformed their urban counterparts as home offices and need for more space outweighed the many closed amenities offered in the urban core. Industrial property performance, meanwhile, has generally remained stable, bolstered by the rapid ascension of eCommerce as a primary consumption channel. Rent collections for apartment, office and industrial properties remain above 90 percent, but collections could face increased pressure if another round of stimulus and/or a health solution is not delivered soon. We believe risks to apartment collections could be mitigated by the renewal of federal unemployment benefits or the addition of a rent assistance program. That said, asset performance varies significantly by locality as cities across the country have faced wide-ranging economic and health-related fallout. Some cities have only experienced a marginal rise in unemployment while other have been impacted more severely.
Credit and liquidity issues in the financial markets have a direct impact on the flow of capital to the commercial real estate market. Real estate purchases are often financed with debt and, as a result, credit and liquidity impact transaction activity and prices. Changes in interest rates, as well as steady and protracted movements of interest rates in one direction, whether increases or decreases, could adversely or positively affect the operations and income potential of commercial real estate properties, as well as lender and equity underwriting for real estate investments. These changes influence the demand of investors for commercial real estate investments.
Following the second quarter uncertainty-driven financing slowdown, lenders have become more active. Led by local and regional banks, financing liquidity for most property types and locations is available at interest rates near
all-time
lows. Hotels and some retail centers, which are the property types grappling with the greatest levels of distress, still face limited access to debt capital. Other property types, particularly those that have maintained strong rent collections, have financing options. Speculative investment, including construction and
value-add
assets face closer lender scrutiny. The increased debt liquidity and particularly low interest rates have supported rising investor activity in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, but transaction activity remains well below
pre-crisis
levels. The Federal Reserve’s commitment to low interest rates could support the low interest rate climate, and we believe market liquidity should remain strong barring a significant medical or financial market setback.
Investor Sentiment and Investment Activity
We rely on investors to buy and sell properties in order to generate commissions. Investors’ desires to engage in real estate transactions are dependent on many factors that are beyond our control. The economy, supply and demand for properly positioned properties, available credit and market events impact investor sentiment and, therefore, transaction velocity. In addition, our private clients are often motivated to buy, sell and/or refinance properties due to personal circumstances such as death, divorce, partnership breakups and estate planning.
Investor activity gained ground in the third quarter despite uncertainties surrounding health, economic, policy and operational variables. Questions remain for substantially all facets of the near-term real estate sector outlook, but many investors are adapting to the new climate. Because the pandemic has affected each property type and each market differently, price discovery remains a hurdle in the transaction process. However, we believe low interest rates and generally broad capital availability have been positive forces supporting activity. We believe the many investors still on the sidelines have ample capital
on-hand
that could spur transaction activity once the uncertainties begin to abate or if a wave of distressed assets come to market. Looking forward, election uncertainty in the United States, particularly in relation to future tax policy, could be a concern for investors. Potential changes to capital gains and estate taxes could influence activity either to the upside or downside in the coming year. Nonetheless, a medical solution to the health crisis could remain the single most significant factor determining investor decisions.
Our real estate brokerage commissions and financing fees have tended to be seasonal and, combined with other factors, can affect an investor’s ability to compare our financial condition and results of operations on a
basis. Historically, this seasonality has generally caused our revenue, operating income, net income and cash flows from operating activities to be lower in the first half of the year and higher in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter. The concentration of earnings and cash flows in the last nine months of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter, is generally due to an industry-wide focus of clients to complete transactions towards the end of the calendar year. This historical trend could be disrupted either positively or negatively by major economic, political events, natural disasters or pandemics such as the
COVID-19
pandemic, which may impact, among other things, investor sentiment for a particular property type or location, volatility in financial markets, current and future projections of interest rates, attractiveness of other asset classes, market liquidity and the extent of limitations or availability of capital allocations for larger property buyers. Private client investors may also accelerate or delay transactions due to personal or business-related reasons unrelated to economic or political events. In addition, our operating margins are typically lower during the second half of each year due to our commission structure for some of our senior investment sales and financing professionals. These senior investment sales and financing professionals are on a graduated commission schedule that resets annually, pursuant to which higher commissions are paid for higher sales volumes. Our historical pattern of seasonality may be significantly disrupted by the
COVID-19
pandemic due to uncertainties around substantially all aspects of the economy and may not continue to the same degree experienced in prior years.