Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses | Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves The unpaid losses and loss adjustment expense (“LAE”) reserves are the result of ongoing analysis of recent loss development trends and emerging historical experience. Original estimates are increased or decreased as additional information becomes known regarding individual claims. In setting its reserves, the Company reviews its loss data to estimate expected loss development. Management believes that its use of standard actuarial methodology applied to its analyses of its historical experience provides a reasonable estimate of future losses. However, actual future losses may differ from the Company’s estimate, and future events beyond the control of management, such as changes in law, judicial interpretations of law and inflation, may favorably or unfavorably impact the ultimate settlement of the Company’s losses and LAE. The anticipated effect of inflation is implicitly considered when estimating liabilities for losses and LAE. In addition to inflation, the average severity of claims is affected by a number of factors that may vary by types and features of policies written. Future average severities are projected from historical trends, adjusted for implemented changes in underwriting standards and policy provisions, and general economic trends. These estimated trends are monitored and revised as necessary based on actual development. The tables below show the rollforward of loss reserves on a gross and net of reinsurance basis, reflecting changes in losses incurred and paid losses: Year Ended December 31, 2018 Property Accident NGHC Reciprocal Total Unpaid losses and LAE, gross of related reinsurance recoverable at beginning of the year $ 2,270,551 $ 249,653 $ 2,520,204 $ 143,353 $ 2,663,557 Less: Reinsurance recoverable at beginning of the year (1,067,495 ) (9,840 ) (1,077,335 ) (52,408 ) (1,129,743 ) Net balance at beginning of the year 1,203,056 239,813 1,442,869 90,945 1,533,814 Incurred losses and LAE related to: Current year 2,182,923 352,322 2,535,245 161,015 2,696,260 Prior year (4,760 ) (30,977 ) (35,737 ) 1,703 (34,034 ) Total incurred 2,178,163 321,345 2,499,508 162,718 2,662,226 Paid losses and LAE related to: Current year (1,336,359 ) (188,014 ) (1,524,373 ) (110,053 ) (1,634,426 ) Prior year (720,039 ) (117,653 ) (837,692 ) (43,119 ) (880,811 ) Total paid (2,056,398 ) (305,667 ) (2,362,065 ) (153,172 ) (2,515,237 ) Effect of foreign exchange rates — (8,786 ) (8,786 ) — (8,786 ) Net balance at end of the year 1,324,821 246,705 1,571,526 100,491 1,672,017 Plus: Reinsurance recoverable at end of the year 1,182,588 24,575 1,207,163 77,979 1,285,142 Gross balance at end of the year $ 2,507,409 $ 271,280 $ 2,778,689 $ 178,470 $ 2,957,159 Year Ended December 31, 2017 Property and Casualty Accident and Health NGHC Reciprocal Exchanges Total Unpaid losses and LAE, gross of related reinsurance recoverable at beginning of the year $ 1,936,391 $ 200,400 $ 2,136,791 $ 137,075 $ 2,273,866 Less: Reinsurance recoverable at beginning of the year (827,672 ) (10,933 ) (838,605 ) (42,192 ) (880,797 ) Net balance at beginning of the year 1,108,719 189,467 1,298,186 94,883 1,393,069 Incurred losses and LAE related to: Current year 2,172,506 327,289 2,499,795 118,938 2,618,733 Prior year 15,273 (8,826 ) 6,447 902 7,349 Total incurred 2,187,779 318,463 2,506,242 119,840 2,626,082 Paid losses and LAE related to: Current year (1,364,011 ) (166,669 ) (1,530,680 ) (81,371 ) (1,612,051 ) Prior year (729,431 ) (107,992 ) (837,423 ) (42,407 ) (879,830 ) Total paid (2,093,442 ) (274,661 ) (2,368,103 ) (123,778 ) (2,491,881 ) Effect of foreign exchange rates — 6,544 6,544 — 6,544 Net balance at end of the year 1,203,056 239,813 1,442,869 90,945 1,533,814 Plus: Reinsurance recoverable at end of the year 1,067,495 9,840 1,077,335 52,408 1,129,743 Gross balance at end of the year $ 2,270,551 $ 249,653 $ 2,520,204 $ 143,353 $ 2,663,557 Year Ended December 31, 2016 Property and Casualty Accident and Health NGHC Reciprocal Exchanges Total Unpaid losses and LAE, gross of related reinsurance recoverable at beginning of the year $ 1,479,953 $ 150,230 $ 1,630,183 $ 132,392 $ 1,762,575 Less: Reinsurance recoverable at beginning of the year (793,508 ) (583 ) (794,091 ) (39,085 ) (833,176 ) Net balance at beginning of the year 686,445 149,647 836,092 93,307 929,399 Incurred losses and LAE related to: Current year 1,716,729 291,900 2,008,629 70,113 2,078,742 Prior year 5,125 9,310 14,435 (897 ) 13,538 Total incurred 1,721,854 301,210 2,023,064 69,216 2,092,280 Paid losses and LAE related to: Current year (1,070,080 ) (181,957 ) (1,252,037 ) (45,607 ) (1,297,644 ) Prior year (521,912 ) (84,824 ) (606,736 ) (22,417 ) (629,153 ) Total paid (1,591,992 ) (266,781 ) (1,858,773 ) (68,024 ) (1,926,797 ) Acquired outstanding loss and loss adjustment reserve 292,412 9,682 302,094 384 302,478 Effect of foreign exchange rates — (4,291 ) (4,291 ) — (4,291 ) Net balance at end of the year 1,108,719 189,467 1,298,186 94,883 1,393,069 Plus: Reinsurance recoverable at end of the year 827,672 10,933 838,605 42,192 880,797 Gross balance at end of the year $ 1,936,391 $ 200,400 $ 2,136,791 $ 137,075 $ 2,273,866 Gross unpaid losses and loss adjustment expense reserves at December 31, 2018 increased by $293,602 from December 31, 2017 , primarily reflecting increases from organic growth in the property and casualty segment. Gross unpaid losses and loss adjustment expense reserves at December 31, 2017 increased by $389,691 from December 31, 2016 , primarily reflecting increases in organic growth in the property and casualty segment. Prior year loss development, net of reinsurance Prior year development is based upon numerous estimates by line of business and accident year. No additional premiums or return premiums have been accrued as a result of the prior year effects. 2018 . Loss and LAE for the year ended December 31, 2018 included $34,034 of favorable development on prior accident year loss and LAE reserves driven by $3,057 of favorable development in the property and casualty segment (including $1,703 of unfavorable development for the Reciprocal Exchanges), and $30,977 of favorable development in the accident and health segment primarily driven by favorable development in the domestic accident and health stop loss and short-term medical products. 2017 . Loss and LAE for the year ended December 31, 2017 included $7,349 of unfavorable development on prior accident year loss and LAE reserves. The $16,175 of unfavorable development in the property and casualty segment (including $902 of unfavorable development for the Reciprocal Exchanges) was primarily driven by higher than expected development in auto liability coverages, while the $8,826 of favorable development in the accident and health segment was primarily driven by favorable development in the Company’s domestic products. 2016 . Loss and LAE for the year ended December 31, 2016 included $13,538 of unfavorable development on prior accident year loss and LAE reserves. The $4,228 of unfavorable development in the property and casualty segment (including $897 of favorable development for the Reciprocal Exchanges) was primarily driven by higher than expected unfavorable development in private passenger auto bodily injury coverage, while the $9,310 of unfavorable development in the accident and health segment was primarily driven by unfavorable development in the domestic stop loss, short-term medical products and European A&H policies. Short-duration contracts The following is information by reserving subgroups within segments about incurred and paid claims development as of December 31, 2018 , net of reinsurance, as well as cumulative claim frequency and the total of incurred-but-not-reported liabilities (“IBNR”) plus expected development on reported claims included within the net incurred claims amounts. The information about incurred and paid claims development for the years ended prior to December 31, 2018 , is presented as unaudited supplementary information. Due to the revaluation of the historical information to constant-currency rates in the Company’s European A&H policies, the accident and health triangle will not match prior years. Property and Casualty - auto liability, including recreational vehicles and motorcycles: Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Year Ended December 31, December 31, 2018 Accident 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total of IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims (unaudited) 2010 $ 596,995 $ 593,187 $ 592,353 $ 593,992 $ 594,348 $ 595,763 $ 595,337 $ 595,157 $ 595,215 $ 61 241,670 2011 490,230 485,762 489,010 494,922 493,873 497,109 497,324 496,408 50 238,283 2012 511,797 522,296 529,140 527,386 528,090 527,531 529,885 66 249,856 2013 544,833 556,262 556,290 563,834 567,410 572,538 767 250,051 2014 740,531 759,577 760,566 766,640 779,992 6,150 269,900 2015 820,213 838,040 849,051 872,064 17,352 291,338 2016 932,350 940,849 976,749 51,322 300,680 2017 929,211 912,371 93,880 292,748 2018 1,047,041 380,720 283,045 Total (A) $ 6,782,263 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Year Ended December 31, Accident 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (unaudited) 2010 $ 287,058 $ 474,640 $ 534,107 $ 562,918 $ 579,237 $ 590,417 $ 592,932 $ 594,168 $ 594,696 2011 224,676 385,749 442,365 468,059 482,861 489,191 494,145 495,833 2012 242,285 413,018 470,515 501,819 518,079 523,703 527,695 2013 259,665 440,751 504,569 540,497 559,064 567,949 2014 342,710 601,980 694,002 728,256 757,933 2015 385,592 679,461 761,150 820,007 2016 400,052 737,927 855,407 2017 392,084 706,152 2018 429,231 Total (B) $ 5,754,903 Unpaid loss and allocated loss adjustment expense reserves before 2010, net of reinsurance (C) 2,063 Unpaid loss and allocated loss adjustment expense reserves, net of reinsurance (A) - (B) + (C) $ 1,029,423 Average Annual Percentage Payout of Accident Year Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 (unaudited) Property and Casualty - auto liability, including recreational vehicles and motorcycles 43.7 % 33.7 % 11.0 % 5.8 % 3.3 % 1.5 % 0.6 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Property and Casualty - auto physical damage, including recreational vehicles, motorcycles and lender placed auto: Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Year Ended December 31, December 31, 2018 Accident 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total of IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims (unaudited) 2010 $ 389,966 $ 382,067 $ 381,499 $ 381,748 $ 381,818 $ 381,826 $ 381,795 $ 381,410 $ 381,138 $ 10 309,112 2011 315,273 308,729 308,298 308,486 308,760 308,512 308,536 308,249 (20 ) 298,029 2012 308,056 298,208 295,984 296,257 296,050 295,970 295,026 6 292,483 2013 335,454 329,049 328,748 328,284 328,262 328,010 13 285,737 2014 496,227 487,302 486,206 486,383 486,373 77 311,580 2015 541,008 544,097 544,769 544,510 (13 ) 329,054 2016 626,643 622,456 621,717 131 337,670 2017 600,813 570,699 1,988 384,399 2018 548,063 39,000 347,326 Total (A) $ 4,083,785 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Year Ended December 31, Accident 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (unaudited) 2010 $ 351,865 $ 382,575 $ 381,955 $ 381,926 $ 381,829 $ 381,811 $ 381,789 $ 381,425 $ 381,128 2011 283,501 308,824 308,634 308,608 308,578 308,571 308,557 308,266 2012 268,989 298,381 295,978 295,975 296,029 295,995 294,975 2013 291,064 328,832 328,456 328,299 328,280 327,976 2014 430,998 487,531 486,364 486,309 486,251 2015 478,268 544,754 544,707 544,485 2016 542,970 622,930 621,529 2017 533,907 568,639 2018 483,149 Total (B) $ 4,016,398 Unpaid loss and allocated loss adjustment expense reserves before 2010, net of reinsurance (C) 3 Unpaid loss and allocated loss adjustment expense reserves, net of reinsurance (A) - (B) + (C) $ 67,390 Average Annual Percentage Payout of Accident Year Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 (unaudited) Property and Casualty - auto physical damage, including recreational vehicles, motorcycles and lender placed auto 89.7 % 10.5 % (0.1 )% — % — % — % (0.1 )% — % (0.1 )% Property and Casualty - homeowners & other property, including lender placed homeowners: Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Year Ended December 31, December 31, 2018 Accident 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total of IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims (unaudited) 2010 $ 422,123 $ 414,378 $ 413,664 $ 413,623 $ 412,187 $ 411,689 $ 411,304 $ 410,997 $ 411,290 $ 10 86,459 2011 506,352 499,170 498,050 498,184 497,244 495,246 494,825 495,170 19 107,854 2012 485,454 480,353 478,880 477,577 476,538 474,649 476,166 36 112,028 2013 306,761 300,868 299,561 296,618 296,907 296,756 100 75,831 2014 318,488 306,471 303,925 304,496 304,237 474 73,367 2015 357,023 349,559 351,747 353,688 6,312 69,636 2016 350,737 341,762 340,711 3,690 60,486 2017 402,798 365,092 14,807 57,547 2018 327,463 42,891 54,127 Total (A) $ 3,370,573 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Year Ended December 31, Accident 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (unaudited) 2010 $ 247,802 $ 370,301 $ 393,226 $ 404,490 $ 408,195 $ 409,781 $ 410,875 $ 410,994 $ 411,249 2011 314,139 457,480 485,054 489,778 493,408 494,198 494,525 494,904 2012 300,271 452,589 466,266 471,084 473,190 473,781 475,765 2013 219,937 279,743 289,302 293,101 295,332 296,382 2014 198,781 278,255 289,456 297,640 301,741 2015 233,264 319,284 336,921 342,156 2016 227,650 320,564 331,102 2017 258,234 338,065 2018 227,907 Total (B) $ 3,219,271 Unpaid loss and allocated loss adjustment expense reserves before 2010, net of reinsurance (C) 177 Unpaid loss and allocated loss adjustment expense reserves, net of reinsurance (A) - (B) + (C) $ 151,479 Average Annual Percentage Payout of Accident Year Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 (unaudited) Property and Casualty - homeowners & other property, including lender placed homeowners 66.1 % 26.4 % 4.2 % 1.6 % 1.1 % 0.3 % 0.2 % — % 0.1 % Accident and Health Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Year Ended December 31, December 31, 2018 Accident 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total of IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims (unaudited) 2010 $ 21,110 $ 21,886 $ 23,665 $ 24,328 $ 25,361 $ 26,677 $ 26,282 $ 26,500 $ 26,648 $ 78 23,800 2011 19,863 25,848 26,398 28,016 30,391 29,506 30,201 29,682 184 25,766 2012 21,237 28,128 31,183 34,822 33,906 36,252 35,071 290 29,006 2013 46,293 57,384 60,829 62,297 66,232 64,182 408 57,713 2014 80,718 88,738 91,433 97,733 95,864 509 97,789 2015 212,071 226,857 232,084 232,966 908 275,549 2016 259,281 249,637 252,038 2,175 361,175 2017 273,288 248,038 11,775 343,273 2018 301,198 120,225 244,828 Total (A) $ 1,285,687 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Year Ended December 31, Accident 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (unaudited) 2010 $ 11,408 $ 17,907 $ 20,708 $ 22,754 $ 23,942 $ 24,511 $ 24,754 $ 25,146 $ 25,410 2011 11,684 21,437 24,260 26,281 27,425 27,845 28,305 28,586 2012 13,809 23,294 27,402 29,554 30,570 31,578 32,115 2013 27,808 49,334 54,254 56,632 58,144 58,964 2014 46,857 78,463 83,109 85,782 87,441 2015 140,431 208,738 216,424 218,925 2016 147,952 235,572 244,270 2017 132,451 218,237 2018 167,833 Total (B) $ 1,081,781 Unpaid loss and allocated loss adjustment expense reserves before 2010, net of reinsurance (C) 2,238 Unpaid loss and allocated loss adjustment expense reserves, net of reinsurance (A) - (B) + (C) $ 206,144 Average Annual Percentage Payout of Accident Year Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 (unaudited) Accident and Health (excluding DE captive subsidiaries) 54.5 % 32.2 % 4.4 % (0.2 )% (0.3 )% 1.4 % 1.3 % 2.2 % 2.2 % Reciprocal Exchanges - auto liability: Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Year Ended December 31, December 31, 2018 Accident 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total of IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims (unaudited) 2010 $ 61,956 $ 59,169 $ 57,079 $ 56,991 $ 57,453 $ 57,268 $ 57,218 $ 57,222 $ 57,568 $ — 5,854 2011 47,666 47,834 47,459 48,841 51,107 50,898 50,998 51,161 — 5,089 2012 44,834 47,275 48,044 48,665 50,370 50,767 50,303 — 5,016 2013 43,684 44,341 45,479 50,180 51,263 49,854 (1 ) 5,090 2014 38,656 40,850 45,930 48,246 49,168 500 4,845 2015 35,573 33,409 34,390 34,615 1,732 4,366 2016 24,619 24,460 26,109 4,879 4,055 2017 26,214 28,762 5,361 5,071 2018 32,339 14,089 5,940 Total (A) $ 379,879 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Year Ended December 31, Accident 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (unaudited) 2010 $ 18,879 $ 32,181 $ 41,020 $ 49,764 $ 53,635 $ 55,155 $ 55,700 $ 56,522 $ 56,961 2011 15,857 26,603 35,911 41,931 46,559 49,570 50,481 50,979 2012 13,568 29,286 37,241 42,768 46,358 48,990 49,836 2013 14,683 29,218 35,105 41,787 47,449 48,449 2014 13,925 26,070 32,382 39,328 46,001 2015 11,910 19,501 24,614 29,538 2016 7,516 13,478 16,994 2017 9,111 17,136 2018 10,755 Total (B) $ 326,649 Unpaid loss and allocated loss adjustment expense reserves before 2010, net of reinsurance (C) 5 Unpaid loss and allocated loss adjustment expense reserves, net of reinsurance (A) - (B) + (C) $ 53,235 Average Annual Percentage Payout of Accident Year Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 (unaudited) Reciprocal Exchanges - auto liability 30.6 % 25.1 % 14.4 % 13.7 % 9.3 % 3.8 % 1.3 % 0.8 % 0.8 % Reciprocal Exchanges - auto physical damage: Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Year Ended December 31, December 31, 2018 Accident 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total of IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims (unaudited) 2010 $ 29,664 $ 24,572 $ 24,652 $ 24,700 $ 24,682 $ 24,665 $ 24,659 $ 24,653 $ 24,653 $ — 12,374 2011 26,936 26,055 26,022 26,060 26,037 26,029 26,023 26,028 — 12,041 2012 25,752 26,459 26,189 25,914 25,842 25,841 25,845 — 11,301 2013 23,375 25,214 25,292 24,709 24,703 24,704 — 11,072 2014 29,240 27,424 25,806 25,588 25,882 (1 ) 11,557 2015 21,247 18,592 18,673 18,789 (39 ) 10,328 2016 12,270 12,921 12,985 (170 ) 8,752 2017 15,301 15,410 (731 ) 10,691 2018 19,146 (218 ) 13,002 Total (A) $ 193,442 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Year Ended December 31, Accident 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (unaudited) 2010 $ 25,583 $ 24,873 $ 24,725 $ 24,701 $ 24,681 $ 24,665 $ 24,661 $ 24,654 $ 24,653 2011 28,274 26,269 26,106 26,056 26,037 26,033 26,027 26,028 2012 23,760 26,651 26,172 25,914 25,854 25,850 25,845 2013 22,651 25,088 24,549 24,725 24,716 24,704 2014 24,528 26,165 25,772 25,427 25,685 2015 19,080 18,797 18,750 18,748 2016 12,579 13,147 13,079 2017 15,438 16,141 2018 18,925 Total (B) $ 193,808 Unpaid loss and allocated loss adjustment expense reserves before 2010, net of reinsurance (C) — Unpaid loss and allocated loss adjustment expense reserves, net of reinsurance (A) - (B) + (C) $ (366 ) Average Annual Percentage Payout of Accident Year Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 (unaudited) Reciprocal Exchanges - auto physical damage 98.6 % 3.0 % (1.5 )% (0.4 )% 0.1 % 0.1 % — % — % — % Reciprocal Exchanges - homeowners & other property: Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Year Ended December 31, December 31, 2018 Accident 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total of IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims (unaudited) 2010 $ 38,125 $ 37,831 $ 37,161 $ 36,347 $ 36,691 $ 35,788 $ 35,723 $ 35,639 $ 35,181 $ — 5,049 2011 38,470 28,869 28,511 28,209 27,954 27,950 28,002 28,075 — 6,640 2012 25,289 20,625 21,184 19,971 20,403 20,876 20,251 — 8,422 2013 22,638 21,232 20,132 20,309 20,615 20,367 — 3,148 2014 27,706 24,846 25,625 26,614 27,141 174 4,226 2015 30,081 21,031 21,527 22,007 509 5,443 2016 36,838 35,274 34,851 1,065 4,745 2017 48,222 50,871 939 8,630 2018 76,925 10,886 11,930 Total (A) $ 315,669 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Year Ended December 31, Accident 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (unaudited) 2010 $ 23,881 $ 31,051 $ 32,488 $ 34,587 $ 35,265 $ 35,428 $ 35,388 $ 35,497 $ 35,101 2011 21,474 24,997 25,799 26,700 27,661 27,656 27,692 27,758 2012 11,087 18,021 19,367 19,847 19,961 20,668 20,121 2013 11,277 17,435 18,107 19,104 19,653 19,626 2014 15,344 22,834 23,820 25,230 26,170 2015 12,979 18,518 19,834 20,339 2016 20,978 30,615 31,632 2017 33,166 46,003 2018 55,519 Total (B) $ 282,269 Unpaid loss and allocated loss adjustment expense reserves before 2010, net of reinsurance (C) 2,157 Unpaid loss and allocated loss adjustment expense reserves, net of reinsurance (A) - (B) + (C) $ 35,557 Average Annual Percentage Payout of Accident Year Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 (unaudited) Reciprocal Exchanges - homeowners & other property 65.2 % 22.6 % 3.3 % 4.2 % 3.0 % 1.3 % 0.1 % 0.4 % 0.1 % The reconciliation of the net incurred and paid claims development tables to the liability for unpaid loss and loss adjustment expense reserves is as follows: December 31, 2018 Net outstanding liabilities: Property and Casualty - Auto Liability $ 1,029,423 Property and Casualty - Auto Physical Damage 67,390 Property and Casualty - Homeowners and Other Property 151,479 Accident and Health 206,144 Reciprocal Exchanges - Auto Liability 53,235 Reciprocal Exchanges - Auto Physical Damage (366 ) Reciprocal Exchanges - Homeowners and Other Property 35,557 Net reserve for claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses $ 1,542,862 Reinsurance recoverable: (1) Property and Casualty - Auto Liability $ 877,907 Property and Casualty - Auto Physical Damage 16,413 Property and Casualty - Homeowners and Other Property 288,268 Accident and Health 24,575 Reciprocal Exchanges - Auto Liability 37,180 Reciprocal Exchanges - Auto Physical Damage 105 Reciprocal Exchanges - Homeowners and Other Property 40,694 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses $ 1,285,142 Insurance lines other than short-duration $ 31,048 Unallocated claims adjustment expenses (“ULAE”) 98,107 Subtotal $ 129,155 Gross reserve for claims and claim adjustment expenses $ 2,957,159 (1) Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses for Property and Casualty primarily include $590,188 from MCCA and $134,916 from NCRF. See Note 10 , “ Reinsurance ” for additional information. The reconciliation of the net incurred and paid loss information in the loss reserve rollforward table and development tables with respect to the current accident year is as follows: 2018 - Current Accident Year Incurred 2018 - Current Accident Year Paid Property and Casualty Accident and Health Reciprocal Total Property and Casualty Accident and Health Reciprocal Total Rollforward table $ 2,182,923 $ 352,322 $ 161,015 $ 2,696,260 $ 1,336,359 $ 188,014 $ 110,053 $ 1,634,426 Development tables 1,922,567 301,198 128,410 2,352,175 1,140,287 167,833 85,199 1,393,319 Variance $ 260,356 $ 51,124 $ 32,605 $ 344,085 $ 196,072 $ 20,181 $ 24,854 $ 241,107 Unallocated claims adjustment expenses $ 260,356 $ 13,280 $ 32,605 $ 306,241 $ 196,072 $ 6,572 $ 24,854 $ 227,498 Long-duration contracts — 34,937 — 34,937 — 17,944 — 17,944 Effect of foreign exchange rates — 2,907 — 2,907 — (4,335 ) — (4,335 ) Variance $ 260,356 $ 51,124 $ 32,605 $ 344,085 $ 196,072 $ 20,181 $ 24,854 $ 241,107 The reconciliation of the net incurred and paid loss information in the loss reserve rollforward table and development tables with respect to the prior accident year is as follows: 2018 - Prior Accident Year Incurred 2018 - Prior Accident Year Incurred Property and Casualty Accident and Health Reciprocal Total Property and Casualty Accident and Health Reciprocal Total Rollforward table $ (4,760 ) $ (30,977 ) $ 1,703 $ (34,034 ) $ 720,039 $ 117,653 $ 43,119 $ 880,811 Development tables (5,899 ) (27,438 ) 6,548 (26,789 ) 669,687 100,546 41,190 811,423 Variance $ 1,139 $ (3,539 ) $ (4,845 ) $ (7,245 ) $ 50,352 $ 17,107 $ 1,929 $ 69,388 Unallocated claims adjustment expenses $ 412 $ 2,246 $ (5,622 ) $ (2,964 ) $ 49,019 $ 3,758 $ 788 $ 53,565 Accident years prior to 2010 727 — 777 1,504 1,333 736 1,141 3,210 Delaware captive subsidiaries — 19 — 19 — 77 — 77 Long-duration contracts — (5,285 ) — (5,285 ) — 6,628 — 6,628 Effect of foreign exchange rates — (519 ) — (519 ) — 5,908 — 5,908 Variance $ 1,139 $ (3,539 ) $ (4,845 ) $ (7,245 ) $ 50,352 $ 17,107 $ 1,929 $ 69,388 The $5,899 of favorable prior year development for Property and Casualty on a combined basis for the incurred development tables relates to Loss and Allocated Claims Adjustment Expenses (“ALAE”), which does not include ULAE and other items excluded from the development tables as identified in the reconciliation table and further identified in the prior accident year incurred reconciliation table above. The reserve rollforward table shows prior year development for Loss and LAE, which includes development from ULAE and other items excluded from the development tables as identified in the reconciliation table and further identified in the prior accident year incurred reconciliation table above. Unfavorable prior year development of $1,139 in total attributable to liabilities excluded from the incurred development tables resulted in total P&C Loss and LAE favorable prior year development of $4,760 shown in the reserve rollforward table. The $27,438 of favorable prior year development for Accident and Health shown in the incurred development table relates to Loss and ALAE, which does not include ULAE and other items excluded from the development tables as identified in the reconciliation table and further identified in the prior accident year incurred reconciliation table above. The reserve rollforward table shows prior year development for Loss and LAE, which includes prior year development from ULAE and other items excluded from the development tables as identified in the reconciliation table and further identified in the prior accident year incurred reconciliation table above. Favorable prior year development of $3,539 in total attributable to liabilities excluded from the incurred development table resulted in total Accident and Health Loss and LAE favorable prior year development of $30,977 shown in the reserve rollforward table. The $6,548 of unfavorable prior year development for the Reciprocal Exchanges on a combined basis for the incurred development tables relates to Loss and ALAE, which does not include ULAE and other items excluded from the development tables as identified in the reconciliation table and further identified in the prior accident year incurred reconciliation table above. The reserve rollforward table shows prior year development for Loss and LAE, which includes development from ULAE and other items excluded from the development tables as identified in the reconciliation table and further identified in the prior accident year incurred reconciliation table above. Favorable prior year development of $4,845 in total attributable to liabilities excluded from the incurred development tables resulted in total Reciprocal Exchanges Loss and LAE unfavorable prior year development of $1,703 shown in the reserve rollforward table. Methodology for Estimating Incurred-But-Not-Reported Reserves Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves represent management's estimate of the ultimate liability for claims that have been reported and claims that have been incurred but not yet reported as of the balance sheet date. Because the establishment of loss and loss adjustment expense reserves is a process involving estimates and judgment, currently estimated reserves may change. The Company reflects changes to the reserves in the results of operations for the period during which the estimates are changed. Incurred-but-not-reported reserve estimates are generally calculated by first projecting the ultimate cost of all claims that have occurred and then subtracting reported losses and loss expenses. Reported losses include cumulative paid losses and loss expenses plus case reserves. Therefore, the IBNR also includes provision for expected development on reported claims. The Company’s internal actuarial analysis of the historical data provides the factors the Company uses in its actuarial analysis in estimating its loss and LAE reserves. These factors are implicit measures over time of claims reported, average case incurred amounts, case development, severity and payment patterns. However, these factors cannot be directly used as they do not take into consideration changes in business mix, claims management, regulatory issues, medical trends, and other subjective factors. The Company generally uses a combination of actuarial factors and subjective assumptions in the development of up to seven of the following actuarial methodologies: • Paid Development Method - uses historical, cumulative paid losses by accident year and develops those actual losses to estimated ultimate losses based upon the assumption that each accident year will develop to estimated ultimate cost in a manner that is analogous to prior years. • Paid Generalized Cape Cod Method - combines the Paid Development Method with the expected loss method, where the expected loss ratios are estimated from exposure and claims experience weighted across multiple accident periods. The selected expected loss ratio for a given accident year is derived by giving some weight to all of the accident years in the experience history rather than treating each accident year independently. • Paid Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method - a combination of the Paid Development Method and the Expected Loss Method, the Paid Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method estimates ultimate losses by adding actual paid losses and projected future unpaid losses. The amounts produced are then added to cumulative paid losses to produce the final estimates of ultimate incurred losses. • Incurred Development Method - uses historical, cumulative incurred losses by accident year and develops those actual losses to estimated ultimate losses based upon the assumption that each accident year will develop to estimated ultimate cost in a manner that is analogous to prior years. • Incurred Generalized Cape Cod Method - combines the Incurred Development Method with the expected loss method, where the expected loss ratios are estimated from exposure and claims experience weighted across multiple accident periods. The selected expected loss ratio for a given accident year is derived by giving some weight to all of the accident years in the experience history rather than treating each accident year independently. • Incurred Bornhuetter - Ferguson Method - a combination of the Incurred Development Method and the Expected Loss Method, the Incurred Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method estimates ultimate losses by adding actual incurred losses and projected future unreported losses. The amounts produced are then added to cumulative incurred losses to produce an estimate of ultimate incurred losses. • Expected Loss Method - utilizes an expected ultimate loss ratio based on historical experience adjusted for trends multiplied by earned premium to project ultimate losses. For each method, losses are projected to the ultimate amount to be paid. The Company then analyzes the results and may emphasize or deemphasize some or all of the outcomes to reflect actuarial judgment regarding their reasonableness in relation to supplementary information and operational and industry changes. These outcomes are then aggregated to produce a single selected point estimate that is the basis for the internal actuary’s point estimate for loss reserves. Methodology for Determining Cumulative Number of Reported Claims When the Company is notified of an incident of potential liability that may lead to demand for payment(s), a claim file is created. Methods used to summarize claim counts have not changed significantly over the time periods |