Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses | Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses In establishing the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses, the Company’s internal actuaries estimate an initial expected ultimate loss ratio for each of our lines of business by accident year (or for our Casualty Reinsurance segment, on a contract by contract basis). Input from the Company’s underwriting and claims departments, including premium pricing assumptions and historical experience, are considered by the Company’s internal actuaries in estimating the initial expected loss ratios. The Company’s internal actuaries generally utilize five actuarial methods in their estimation process for the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses. These five methods utilize, to varying degrees, the initial expected loss ratio, detailed statistical analysis of past claims reporting and payment patterns, claims frequency and severity, paid loss experience, industry loss experience, and changes in market conditions, policy forms, exclusions, and exposures. In applying these methods to develop an estimate of the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses, our internal actuaries use judgment to determine three key parameters for each accident year and line of business: the initial expected loss ratios, the incurred and paid loss development factors and the weighting of the five actuarial methods to be used for each accident year and line of business. For the Excess and Surplus Lines and Specialty Admitted Insurance segments, the internal actuaries perform a study on each of these parameters annually and make recommendations for the initial expected loss ratios, the incurred and paid loss development factors and the weighting of the five actuarial methods by accident year and line of business. Members of management’s Reserve Committee review and approve the parameter review actuarial recommendations, and these approved parameters are used in the reserve estimation process for the next four quarters at which time a new parameter study is performed. For the Casualty Reinsurance segment, periodic assessments are made on a contract by contract basis with the goal of keeping the initial expected loss ratios and the incurred and paid loss development factors as constant as possible until sufficient evidence presents itself to support adjustments. Method weights are generally less rigid for the Casualty Reinsurance segment given the heterogeneous nature of the various contracts, and the potential for significant changes in mix of business within individual treaties. Different reserving methods are appropriate in different situations, and the Company’s internal actuaries use their judgment and experience to determine the weighting of the methods to use for each accident year and each line of business and, for our Casualty Reinsurance segment, on a contract by contract basis. For example, the current accident year has very little incurred and paid loss development data on which to base reserve projections. As a result, the Company relies heavily on the initial expected loss ratio in estimating reserves for the current accident year. The Company generally sets the initial expected loss ratio for the current accident year consistent with the internal actuaries’ pricing assumptions. We believe that this is a reasonable and appropriate reserving assumption for the current accident year since our pricing assumptions are actuarially driven and since the Company expects to make an acceptable return on the new business written. If actual loss emergence is better than our initial expected loss ratio assumptions, we will experience favorable development and if it is worse than our initial expected loss ratio assumptions, we will experience adverse development. Conversely, sufficient incurred and paid loss development data is available for the oldest accident years, so more weight is given to this development data and less weight is given to the initial expected loss ratio. The following table provides a reconciliation of the beginning and ending reserve balances for losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance, to the gross amounts reported in the consolidated balance sheets: Year Ended December 31, 2019 2018 2017 (in thousands) Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses net of reinsurance recoverables at beginning of period $ 1,194,088 $ 989,825 $ 761,128 Add: Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses net of reinsurance: Current year 603,094 582,604 533,905 Prior years 69,008 17,672 21,472 Total incurred losses and loss and adjustment expenses 672,102 600,276 555,377 Deduct: Loss and loss adjustment expense payments net of reinsurance: Current year 75,249 86,355 103,205 Prior years 413,480 309,658 223,475 Total loss and loss adjustment expense payments 488,729 396,013 326,680 Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses net of reinsurance recoverables at end of period 1,377,461 1,194,088 989,825 Add: Reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses at end of period 668,045 467,371 302,524 Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses gross of reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses at end of period $ 2,045,506 $ 1,661,459 $ 1,292,349 The foregoing reconciliation shows that $69.0 million of adverse development was experienced in 2019 on the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses held at December 31, 2018. This adverse reserve development included $51.2 million of adverse development in the Excess and Surplus Lines segment including $57.4 million of adverse development in the commercial auto line of business that was primarily related to the 2016 and 2017 accident years with Rasier LLC and its affiliates (collectively, “Rasier”) . Rasier's business was new, complex, and rapidly changing, and the Company's underwriting assumptions and the related pricing of this risk did not keep pace with the insured's escalating loss trends. As a result of changes in the risk, including most recently the enactment of California Assembly Bill 5 (AB5) and its anticipated impact on the Rasier business, unsatisfactory underwriting profits from the Rasier business, and a desire to refocus on the Company’s growing E&S core (non-commercial auto) lines of business where the Company has experienced many years of profitable underwriting results, on October 8, 2019, the Company delivered a notice of early cancellation to Rasier, effective December 31, 2019. The adverse development for commercial auto was partially offset by $6.2 million of favorable development in other Excess and Surplus Lines underwriting divisions. The Company also experienced $5.3 million of favorable development on prior accident years in the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment, as losses on our workers’ compensation business written prior to 2018 continued to develop more favorably than we had anticipated. The Casualty Reinsurance segment experienced $23.1 million of adverse development on prior accident years primarily in accident years 2011 through 2016. This adverse development was mainly in the general liability and commercial auto lines of business. The foregoing reconciliation shows that $17.7 million of adverse development was experienced in 2018 on the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses held at December 31, 2017. This adverse reserve development included $15.0 million of adverse development in the Excess and Surplus Lines segment, including $20.7 million of adverse development in the commercial auto line of business that was primarily related to the 2016 contract year with Rasier. The adverse development for commercial auto was partially offset by $5.7 million of favorable development in other Excess and Surplus Lines underwriting divisions primarily from favorable development in the Excess Property underwriting division related to the 2017 hurricanes. Favorable reserve development in the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment was $5.6 million and primarily came from accident years 2014 through 2016, as loss emergence on our workers’ compensation business written prior to 2016 continued to develop more favorably than we had anticipated. In addition, $8.2 million of adverse development occurred in the Casualty Reinsurance segment, with a majority of this adverse development coming from accident years at least four years old and treaties the Company has since non-renewed. The foregoing reconciliation shows that $21.5 million of adverse development was experienced in 2017 on the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses held at December 31, 2016. This adverse reserve development included $20.0 million of adverse development in the Excess and Surplus Lines segment, including $38.7 million of adverse development in the commercial auto line of business that was primarily related to the 2016 contract year with Rasier. The adverse development for commercial auto was partially offset by favorable development of $18.6 million in other Excess and Surplus Lines underwriting divisions primarily from the 2014 through 2016 accident years. This favorable development occurred because our actuarial studies at December 31, 2017 for the Excess and Surplus Lines segment indicated that our loss experience on our casualty business excluding commercial auto continued to be below our initial expected ultimate loss ratios. The Company also experienced $2.7 million of favorable development on prior accident years in the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment primarily from accident years 2010 through 2015, as losses on our workers’ compensation business written prior to 2016 continued to develop more favorably than we had anticipated. The Casualty Reinsurance segment experienced $4.2 million of adverse development on prior accident years primarily from two contracts from 2010 through 2013 that had higher than expected reported losses in 2017. The following tables present incurred and paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance as of December 31, 2019 for: (1) the Excess and Surplus Lines segment split between all excess and surplus lines business excluding commercial auto and commercial auto, (2) the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment split between individual risk workers’ compensation and fronting and programs, and (3) the Casualty Reinsurance segment. The information provided herein about incurred and paid accident year claims development for the years ended December 31, 2018 and prior is presented as unaudited supplementary information. Excess and Surplus Lines — Excluding Commercial Auto Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 78,424 $ 80,569 $ 78,117 $ 73,035 $ 69,080 $ 69,964 $ 70,294 $ 70,913 $ 71,312 $ 69,594 2011 111,190 119,927 114,473 106,564 106,381 106,130 106,643 106,536 105,173 2012 97,908 98,672 97,829 96,497 97,306 99,619 101,271 103,061 2013 96,729 96,064 85,433 81,009 82,830 83,855 82,732 2014 114,942 104,092 90,267 82,232 84,074 88,904 2015 126,443 113,417 104,847 102,434 103,688 2016 138,507 125,093 126,050 126,971 2017 144,349 131,897 132,136 2018 167,004 158,458 2019 214,653 Total $ 1,185,370 Cumulative paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 13,673 $ 26,418 $ 35,812 $ 45,641 $ 52,071 $ 57,371 $ 61,307 $ 64,214 $ 65,246 $ 65,915 2011 27,684 53,109 72,732 81,696 90,884 94,998 98,684 99,798 101,728 2012 6,944 33,757 49,604 63,216 74,869 82,545 88,812 94,588 2013 3,867 14,509 30,382 44,421 59,641 66,553 71,035 2014 3,412 16,969 28,212 43,891 58,774 71,549 2015 4,048 17,164 34,801 55,911 73,455 2016 5,180 22,852 46,045 70,105 2017 5,290 22,956 42,764 2018 6,000 26,160 2019 8,235 Total $ 625,534 All outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses prior to 2010, net of reinsurance (60 claims outstanding) $ 8,978 Total outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 568,814 Excess and Surplus Lines — Commercial Auto Incurred losses and adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2013 $ 1,255 $ 1,300 $ 1,451 $ 1,351 $ 1,301 $ 1,277 $ 1,277 2014 20,487 14,071 17,233 18,953 19,779 18,303 2015 30,109 33,113 35,149 36,139 36,636 2016 74,340 109,286 126,791 147,122 2017 207,355 208,743 272,421 2018 255,881 230,220 2019 262,306 Total $ 968,285 Cumulative paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2013 $ 60 $ 1,182 $ 1,285 $ 1,291 $ 1,275 $ 1,275 $ 1,275 2014 6,166 8,645 12,679 16,359 18,678 17,745 2015 8,356 15,234 24,282 31,592 34,819 2016 18,295 54,054 89,381 125,108 2017 41,467 107,377 192,961 2018 45,136 119,099 2019 44,225 Total $ 535,232 Total outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 433,053 Specialty Admitted — Individual Risk Workers’ Compensation Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 27,209 $ 28,736 $ 30,464 $ 30,373 $ 28,963 $ 28,938 $ 27,590 $ 27,098 $ 27,099 $ 27,099 2011 37,834 41,421 40,154 38,999 38,311 37,455 36,594 36,593 36,593 2012 32,116 32,420 31,490 29,689 28,255 28,174 28,186 28,186 2013 12,525 13,668 12,786 11,578 10,907 10,909 10,909 2014 16,638 16,652 14,620 13,890 12,704 12,704 2015 20,938 21,274 19,741 18,376 17,626 2016 21,678 20,299 18,050 15,800 2017 24,869 22,071 19,779 2018 16,432 16,288 2019 20,253 Total $ 205,237 Cumulative paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 7,157 $ 16,245 $ 21,805 $ 23,898 $ 25,210 $ 25,477 $ 26,345 $ 26,352 $ 26,358 $ 26,365 2011 10,123 23,127 29,021 33,204 34,240 34,287 34,334 34,614 34,638 2012 9,222 20,308 24,755 26,435 26,897 26,932 26,963 26,994 2013 4,487 8,723 9,846 10,246 10,263 10,309 10,337 2014 4,633 10,648 12,041 12,236 12,282 12,282 2015 6,604 13,285 15,118 15,889 15,901 2016 4,664 10,227 12,135 12,432 2017 6,546 12,782 14,285 2018 4,497 9,034 2019 5,473 Total $ 167,741 All outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses prior to 2010, net of reinsurance (4 claims outstanding) $ 1,039 Outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses assumed from involuntary workers’ compensation pools $ 4,656 Total outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 43,191 Specialty Admitted — Fronting and Programs Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2013 $ 104 $ 80 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 52 2014 3,460 3,468 3,818 3,425 3,228 3,083 2015 7,136 9,632 9,358 8,974 8,384 2016 11,542 15,670 14,682 15,522 2017 21,229 24,271 25,201 2018 21,758 20,677 2019 18,832 Total $ 91,751 Cumulative paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2013 $ 28 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 52 2014 883 1,687 2,369 2,728 2,854 2,916 2015 2,058 4,666 6,165 6,919 7,329 2016 1,894 5,123 6,888 10,732 2017 1,223 6,682 13,065 2018 885 4,972 2019 4,358 Total $ 43,424 All outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 48,327 Outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, assumed from involuntary pools $ 400 Total outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 48,727 Casualty Reinsurance Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 64,413 $ 60,476 $ 61,068 $ 62,714 $ 61,344 $ 60,949 $ 60,978 $ 61,619 $ 62,605 $ 63,357 2011 114,908 103,123 97,366 97,812 98,993 99,282 101,276 103,196 105,333 2012 148,251 132,388 131,281 135,594 136,813 139,978 143,305 146,045 2013 133,230 130,361 131,352 134,446 137,801 143,124 146,760 2014 118,881 115,927 114,636 116,981 121,200 126,160 2015 119,157 108,870 108,699 109,117 114,517 2016 112,759 105,533 103,544 108,222 2017 134,628 128,472 129,800 2018 121,529 119,098 2019 86,022 Total $ 1,145,314 Cumulative paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 21,918 $ 31,500 $ 38,430 $ 44,921 $ 49,263 $ 52,761 $ 54,659 $ 57,013 $ 58,707 $ 59,634 2011 48,688 61,922 68,616 78,164 87,267 90,287 94,627 97,715 99,511 2012 73,124 81,859 97,215 113,943 121,026 128,567 133,606 137,430 2013 59,756 75,094 93,902 108,396 119,256 127,732 134,644 2014 41,421 58,601 76,302 89,899 101,366 110,374 2015 40,021 53,986 68,002 80,208 90,661 2016 36,268 50,905 65,409 78,145 2017 47,739 72,891 90,117 2018 30,903 50,274 2019 12,646 Total $ 863,436 All outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses prior to 2010, net of reinsurance $ 1,798 Total outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 283,676 The reconciliation of the net incurred and paid claims development tables to the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses in the consolidated balance sheet at December 31, 2019 is as follows (in thousands): E&S – excluding commercial auto $ 568,814 E&S – commercial auto 433,053 Specialty Admitted – individual risk workers’ compensation 43,191 Specialty Admitted – fronting and programs 48,727 Casualty Reinsurance 283,676 Net reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses 1,377,461 Reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses 668,045 Gross reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses $ 2,045,506 The following is unaudited supplementary information about average annual percentage payouts of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance, for the Excess and Surplus Lines segment and the Specialty Admitted Insurance segments as of December 31, 2019 . Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 E&S – excluding commercial auto 9.5 % 15.7 % 17.2 % 18.5 % 14.5 % 8.0 % 5.4 % 3.8 % 2.0 % 1.1 % E&S – commercial auto 20.4 % 38.1 % 16.0 % 14.1 % 7.2 % 2.6 % 1.5 % Specialty Admitted – individual risk workers’ compensation 27.9 % 30.9 % 16.0 % 10.2 % 7.2 % 1.2 % 1.7 % 0.9 % 0.1 % 1.3 % Specialty Admitted – fronting and programs 18.7 % 22.4 % 24.3 % 16.1 % 10.5 % 5.3 % Casualty Reinsurance 21.1 % 16.4 % 12.2 % 8.9 % 6.4 % 5.3 % 4.3 % 3.6 % 3.5 % 3.2 % In determining the cumulative number of reported claims, the Company measures claim counts by individual claimant for individual risk workers’ compensation policies in the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment. In the Excess and Surplus Lines insurance segment and for fronting and programs in the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment, the Company measures claim counts by claim event. The claim counts include all claims reported, even if the Company does not establish a liability for the claim (i.e. reserve for loss and loss adjustment expenses). The Casualty Reinsurance segment typically assumes written premium under quota share arrangements. The Company typically does not have direct access to claim frequency information underlying its assumed quota arrangements given the nature of that business. In addition, multiple claims are often aggregated by the ceding company before being reported to the Company. We do not use claim frequency information in the Casualty Reinsurance segment in the determination of loss reserves or for other internal purposes. Based on these considerations, the Company does not believe providing claims frequency information is practicable as it relates to the Casualty Reinsurance segment. The table below provides information on IBNR liabilities and claims frequency for: (1) the Excess and Surplus Lines segment split between commercial auto and all non commercial auto, and (2) the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment split between individual risk workers’ compensation and fronting and programs: Excess and Surplus Lines — Excluding Commercial Auto Accident Year Incurred Losses IBNR Cumulative # of ($ in thousands) 2010 $ 69,594 $ 1,347 1,429 2011 105,173 2,380 1,480 2012 103,061 2,042 1,806 2013 82,732 5,493 2,396 2014 88,904 9,855 2,162 2015 103,688 7,681 2,531 2016 126,971 23,882 2,933 2017 132,136 53,525 2,898 2018 158,458 95,477 3,935 2019 214,653 178,172 4,038 Excess and Surplus Lines — Commercial Auto Accident Year Incurred Losses and Loss Adj Expenses IBNR Cumulative # of Reported Claims ($ in thousands) 2013 $ 1,277 $ 1 54 2014 18,303 150 7,763 2015 36,636 337 41,757 2016 147,122 5,258 89,003 2017 272,421 11,473 133,654 2018 230,220 34,896 95,889 2019 262,306 167,476 67,380 Specialty Admitted - Individual Risk Workers’ Compensation Accident Year Incurred Losses IBNR Cumulative # of ($ in thousands) 2010 $ 27,099 $ 698 $ 1,604 2011 36,593 1,879 1,814 2012 28,186 1,090 1,323 2013 10,909 572 540 2014 12,704 423 850 2015 17,626 1,440 975 2016 15,800 3,245 836 2017 19,779 3,888 1,092 2018 16,288 3,495 1,230 2019 20,253 2,965 1,482 Specialty Admitted — Fronting and Programs Accident Year Incurred Losses IBNR Cumulative # of ($ in thousands) 2013 $ 52 $ — 22 2014 3,083 147 857 2015 8,384 432 1,362 2016 15,522 1,861 2,807 2017 25,201 6,751 6,706 2018 20,677 10,142 7,158 2019 18,832 10,961 5,695 The table below provides information on IBNR liabilities for the Casualty Reinsurance segment: Accident Year Incurred Losses IBNR ($ in thousands) 2010 $ 63,357 $ 723 2011 105,333 1,184 2012 146,045 2,025 2013 146,760 2,631 2014 126,160 3,487 2015 114,517 9,957 2016 108,222 18,720 2017 129,800 36,167 2018 119,098 29,472 2019 86,022 68,499 The Company has not provided insurance coverage that could reasonably be expected to produce material levels of asbestos claims activity. In addition, management does not believe that the Company is exposed to environmental liability claims other than those which it has specifically underwritten and priced as an environmental exposure. |