Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses | Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses In establishing the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses, the Company’s internal actuaries estimate an initial expected ultimate loss ratio for each of our lines of business by accident year (or for our Casualty Reinsurance segment, on a contract by contract basis). Input from the Company’s underwriting and claims departments, including premium pricing assumptions and historical experience, are considered by the Company’s internal actuaries in estimating the initial expected loss ratios. The Company’s internal actuaries generally utilize five actuarial methods in their estimation process for the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses. These five methods utilize, to varying degrees, the initial expected loss ratio, detailed statistical analysis of past claims reporting and payment patterns, claims frequency and severity, paid loss experience, industry loss experience, and changes in market conditions, policy forms, exclusions, and exposures. In applying these methods to develop an estimate of the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses, our internal actuaries use judgment to determine three key parameters for each accident year and line of business: the initial expected loss ratios, the incurred and paid loss development factors and the weighting of the five actuarial methods to be used for each accident year and line of business. For the Excess and Surplus Lines and Specialty Admitted Insurance segments, the internal actuaries perform a study on each of these parameters annually and make recommendations for the initial expected loss ratios, the incurred and paid loss development factors and the weighting of the five actuarial methods by accident year and line of business. Members of management’s Reserve Committee review and approve the parameter review actuarial recommendations, and these approved parameters are used in the reserve estimation process for the next four quarters at which time a new parameter study is performed. For the Casualty Reinsurance segment, periodic assessments are made on a contract by contract basis with the goal of keeping the initial expected loss ratios and the incurred and paid loss development factors as constant as possible until sufficient evidence presents itself to support adjustments. Method weights are generally less rigid for the Casualty Reinsurance segment given the heterogeneous nature of the various contracts, and the potential for significant changes in mix of business within individual treaties. Different reserving methods are appropriate in different situations, and the Company’s internal actuaries use their judgment and experience to determine the weighting of the methods to use for each accident year and each line of business and, for our Casualty Reinsurance segment, on a contract by contract basis. For example, the current accident year has very little incurred and paid loss development data on which to base reserve projections. As a result, the Company relies heavily on the initial expected loss ratio in estimating reserves for the current accident year. The Company generally sets the initial expected loss ratio for the current accident year consistent with the internal actuaries’ pricing assumptions. We believe that this is a reasonable and appropriate reserving assumption for the current accident year since our pricing assumptions are actuarially driven and since the Company expects to make an acceptable return on the new business written. If actual loss emergence is better than our initial expected loss ratio assumptions, we will experience favorable development and if it is worse than our initial expected loss ratio assumptions, we will experience adverse development. Conversely, sufficient incurred and paid loss development data is available for the oldest accident years, so more weight is given to this development data and less weight is given to the initial expected loss ratio. The following table provides a reconciliation of the beginning and ending reserve balances for losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance, to the gross amounts reported in the condensed consolidated balance sheets. Reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses are presented gross of a $335,000 allowance for credit losses on reinsurance balances at December 31, 2020. Year Ended December 31, 2020 2019 2018 (in thousands) Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses net of reinsurance recoverables at beginning of period $ 1,377,461 $ 1,194,088 $ 989,825 Add: Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses net of reinsurance: Current year 386,341 603,094 582,604 Prior years 92,204 69,008 17,672 Total incurred losses and loss and adjustment expenses 478,545 672,102 600,276 Deduct: Loss and loss adjustment expense payments net of reinsurance: Current year 31,952 75,249 86,355 Prior years 437,993 413,480 309,658 Total loss and loss adjustment expense payments 469,945 488,729 396,013 Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses net of reinsurance recoverables at end of period 1,386,061 1,377,461 1,194,088 Add: Reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses at end of period 806,019 668,045 467,371 Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses gross of reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses at end of period $ 2,192,080 $ 2,045,506 $ 1,661,459 The foregoing reconciliation shows that $92.2 million of adverse development was experienced in 2020 on the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses held at December 31, 2019. This adverse reserve development included $59.4 million of adverse development in the Excess and Surplus Lines segment including $91.4 million of adverse development in the commercial auto line of business that was primarily related to the 2018 and prior accident years with Rasier LLC and its affiliates (collectively, “Rasier”) . Rasier's business was new, complex, and rapidly changing, and the Company's underwriting assumptions and the related pricing of this risk did not keep pace with the insured's escalating loss trends. As a result of changes in the risk, unsatisfactory underwriting profits from the Rasier business, and a desire to refocus on the Company’s growing E&S core (non-commercial auto) lines of business where the Company has experienced many years of profitable underwriting results, on October 8, 2019, the Company delivered a notice of early cancellation to Rasier, effective December 31, 2019. The adverse development for commercial auto was partially offset by $32.0 million of favorable development in other Excess and Surplus Lines underwriting divisions that was primarily related to the 2018 and 2019 accident years. The Company also experienced $5.0 million of favorable development on prior accident years in the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment, as losses on our workers’ compensation business written prior to 2019 continued to develop more favorably than we had anticipated. The Casualty Reinsurance segment experienced $37.8 million of adverse development on prior accident years primarily in accident years 2014 through 2018. This adverse development was mainly in the general liability and commercial auto lines of business. The foregoing reconciliation shows that $69.0 million of adverse development was experienced in 2019 on the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses held at December 31, 2018. This adverse reserve development included $51.2 million of adverse development in the Excess and Surplus Lines segment including $57.4 million of adverse development in the commercial auto line of business that was primarily related to the 2016 and 2017 accident years with Rasier. The adverse development for commercial auto was partially offset by $6.2 million of favorable development in other Excess and Surplus Lines underwriting divisions. The Company also experienced $5.3 million of favorable development on prior accident years in the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment, as losses on our workers’ compensation business written prior to 2018 continued to develop more favorably than we had anticipated. The Casualty Reinsurance segment experienced $23.1 million of adverse development on prior accident years primarily in accident years 2011 through 2016. This adverse development was mainly in the general liability and commercial auto lines of business. The foregoing reconciliation shows that $17.7 million of adverse development was experienced in 2018 on the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses held at December 31, 2017. This adverse reserve development included $15.0 million of adverse development in the Excess and Surplus Lines segment, including $20.7 million of adverse development in the commercial auto line of business that was primarily related to the 2016 contract year with Rasier. The adverse development for commercial auto was partially offset by $5.7 million of favorable development in other Excess and Surplus Lines underwriting divisions primarily from favorable development in the Excess Property underwriting division related to the 2017 hurricanes. Favorable reserve development in the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment was $5.6 million and primarily came from accident years 2014 through 2016, as loss emergence on our workers’ compensation business written prior to 2016 continued to develop more favorably than we had anticipated. In addition, $8.2 million of adverse development occurred in the Casualty Reinsurance segment, with a majority of this adverse development coming from accident years at least four years old and treaties the Company has since non-renewed. The following tables present incurred and paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance as of December 31, 2020 for: (1) the Excess and Surplus Lines segment split between all excess and surplus lines business excluding commercial auto, and separately, commercial auto, (2) the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment split between individual risk workers’ compensation and fronting and programs, and (3) the Casualty Reinsurance segment. The information provided herein about incurred and paid accident year claims development for the years ended December 31, 2019 and prior is presented as unaudited supplementary information. Excess and Surplus Lines — Excluding Commercial Auto Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2011 $ 111,190 $ 119,927 $ 114,473 $ 106,564 $ 106,381 $ 106,130 $ 106,643 $ 106,536 $ 105,173 $ 104,280 2012 97,908 98,672 97,829 96,497 97,306 99,619 101,271 103,061 106,118 2013 96,729 96,064 85,433 81,009 82,830 83,855 82,732 82,517 2014 114,942 104,092 90,267 82,232 84,074 88,904 90,191 2015 126,443 113,417 104,847 102,434 103,688 110,466 2016 138,507 125,093 126,050 126,971 125,097 2017 144,349 131,897 132,136 124,265 2018 167,004 158,458 146,633 2019 214,653 194,759 2020 239,897 Total $ 1,324,223 Cumulative paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2011 $ 27,684 $ 53,109 $ 72,732 $ 81,696 $ 90,884 $ 94,998 $ 98,684 $ 99,798 $ 101,728 $ 101,969 2012 6,944 33,757 49,604 63,216 74,869 82,545 88,812 94,588 99,628 2013 3,867 14,509 30,382 44,421 59,641 66,553 71,035 74,635 2014 3,412 16,969 28,212 43,891 58,774 71,549 76,523 2015 4,048 17,164 34,801 55,911 73,455 87,344 2016 5,180 22,852 46,045 70,105 90,166 2017 5,290 22,956 42,764 64,924 2018 6,000 26,160 50,679 2019 8,235 31,346 2020 8,642 Total $ 685,856 All outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses prior to 2011, net of reinsurance (46 claims outstanding) $ 7,946 Total outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 646,313 Excess and Surplus Lines — Commercial Auto Incurred losses and adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2013 $ 1,255 $ 1,300 $ 1,451 $ 1,351 $ 1,301 $ 1,277 $ 1,277 $ 1,277 2014 20,487 14,071 17,233 18,953 19,779 18,303 19,196 2015 30,109 33,113 35,149 36,139 36,636 37,839 2016 74,340 109,286 126,791 147,122 157,712 2017 207,355 208,743 272,421 319,472 2018 255,881 230,220 283,408 2019 262,306 240,773 2020 19,133 Total $ 1,078,810 Cumulative paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2013 $ 60 $ 1,182 $ 1,285 $ 1,291 $ 1,275 $ 1,275 $ 1,275 $ 1,275 2014 6,166 8,645 12,679 16,359 18,678 17,745 18,301 2015 8,356 15,234 24,282 31,592 34,819 35,983 2016 18,295 54,054 89,381 125,108 141,545 2017 41,467 107,377 192,961 252,169 2018 45,136 119,099 184,686 2019 44,225 107,182 2020 628 Total $ 741,769 Total outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 337,041 Specialty Admitted — Individual Risk Workers’ Compensation Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2011 $ 37,834 $ 41,421 $ 40,154 $ 38,999 $ 38,311 $ 37,455 $ 36,594 $ 36,593 $ 36,593 $ 35,252 2012 32,116 32,420 31,490 29,689 28,255 28,174 28,186 28,186 27,741 2013 12,525 13,668 12,786 11,578 10,907 10,909 10,909 10,598 2014 16,638 16,652 14,620 13,890 12,704 12,704 12,573 2015 20,938 21,274 19,741 18,376 17,626 16,492 2016 21,678 20,299 18,050 15,800 14,050 2017 24,869 22,071 19,779 18,810 2018 16,432 16,288 16,038 2019 20,253 21,056 2020 20,137 Total $ 192,747 Cumulative paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2011 $ 10,123 $ 23,127 $ 29,021 $ 33,204 $ 34,240 $ 34,287 $ 34,334 $ 34,614 $ 34,638 $ 34,665 2012 9,222 20,308 24,755 26,435 26,897 26,932 26,963 26,994 27,128 2013 4,487 8,723 9,846 10,246 10,263 10,309 10,337 10,335 2014 4,633 10,648 12,041 12,236 12,282 12,282 12,276 2015 6,604 13,285 15,118 15,889 15,901 16,068 2016 4,664 10,227 12,135 12,432 12,481 2017 6,546 12,782 14,285 15,195 2018 4,497 9,034 11,412 2019 5,473 13,776 2020 7,394 Total $ 160,730 All outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses prior to 2011, net of reinsurance (4 claims outstanding) $ 1,237 Outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses assumed from involuntary workers’ compensation pools $ 4,358 Total outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 37,612 Specialty Admitted — Fronting and Programs Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2013 $ 104 $ 80 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 2014 3,460 3,468 3,818 3,425 3,228 3,083 3,081 2015 7,136 9,632 9,358 8,974 8,384 8,444 2016 11,542 15,670 14,682 15,522 14,468 2017 21,229 24,271 25,201 24,728 2018 21,758 20,677 19,822 2019 18,832 19,020 2020 25,433 Total $ 115,048 Cumulative paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2013 $ 28 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 2014 883 1,687 2,369 2,728 2,854 2,916 2,917 2015 2,058 4,666 6,165 6,919 7,329 7,654 2016 1,894 5,123 6,888 10,732 10,896 2017 1,223 6,682 13,065 15,854 2018 885 4,972 10,495 2019 4,358 5,125 2020 5,375 Total $ 58,368 All outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 56,680 Outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, assumed from involuntary pools $ 601 Total outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 57,281 Casualty Reinsurance Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2011 $ 114,908 $ 103,123 $ 97,366 $ 97,812 $ 98,993 $ 99,282 $ 101,276 $ 103,196 $ 105,333 $ 106,226 2012 148,251 132,388 131,281 135,594 136,813 139,978 143,305 146,045 147,413 2013 133,230 130,361 131,352 134,446 137,801 143,124 146,760 149,682 2014 118,881 115,927 114,636 116,981 121,200 126,160 130,822 2015 119,157 108,870 108,699 109,117 114,517 120,185 2016 112,759 105,533 103,544 108,222 114,979 2017 134,628 128,472 129,800 138,831 2018 121,529 119,098 125,715 2019 86,022 85,549 2020 80,374 Total $ 1,199,776 Cumulative paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2011 $ 48,688 $ 61,922 $ 68,616 $ 78,164 $ 87,267 $ 90,287 $ 94,627 $ 97,715 $ 99,511 $ 101,209 2012 73,124 81,859 97,215 113,943 121,026 128,567 133,606 137,430 139,719 2013 59,756 75,094 93,902 108,396 119,256 127,732 134,644 139,250 2014 41,421 58,601 76,302 89,899 101,366 110,374 117,971 2015 40,021 53,986 68,002 80,208 90,661 100,548 2016 36,268 50,905 65,409 78,145 90,356 2017 47,739 72,891 90,117 106,942 2018 30,903 50,274 69,123 2019 12,646 25,453 2020 5,589 Total $ 896,160 All outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses prior to 2011, net of reinsurance $ 4,198 Total outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 307,814 The reconciliation of the net incurred and paid claims development tables to the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses in the consolidated balance sheet at December 31, 2020 is as follows (in thousands): E&S – excluding commercial auto $ 646,313 E&S – commercial auto 337,041 Specialty Admitted – individual risk workers’ compensation 37,612 Specialty Admitted – fronting and programs 57,281 Casualty Reinsurance 307,814 Net reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses 1,386,061 Reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses (gross of $335,000 allowance for credit losses on reinsurance recoverables) 806,019 Gross reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses $ 2,192,080 The following is unaudited supplementary information about average annual percentage payouts of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance, for the Excess and Surplus Lines segment and the Specialty Admitted Insurance segments as of December 31, 2020. Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 E&S – excluding commercial auto 9.0 % 15.4 % 17.2 % 18.3 % 15.0 % 7.9 % 5.4 % 4.0 % 2.2 % 1.8 % E&S – commercial auto 18.2 % 38.3 % 16.4 % 13.7 % 7.7 % 3.0 % 0.3 % 2.3 % Specialty Admitted – individual risk workers’ compensation 27.1 % 31.6 % 15.3 % 9.0 % 6.3 % 3.4 % 2.2 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 0.8 % Specialty Admitted – fronting and programs 17.4 % 20.5 % 25.4 % 14.7 % 9.8 % 7.3 % 2.2 % 2.6 % Casualty Reinsurance 22.1 % 15.9 % 11.6 % 8.5 % 6.6 % 5.2 % 4.1 % 3.5 % 3.4 % 2.9 % In determining the cumulative number of reported claims, the Company measures claim counts by individual claimant for individual risk workers’ compensation policies in the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment. In the Excess and Surplus Lines insurance segment and for fronting and programs in the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment, the Company measures claim counts by claim event. The claim counts include all claims reported, even if the Company does not establish a liability for the claim (i.e. reserve for loss and loss adjustment expenses). The Casualty Reinsurance segment typically assumes written premium under quota share arrangements. The Company typically does not have direct access to claim frequency information underlying its assumed quota share arrangements given the nature of that business. In addition, multiple claims are often aggregated by the ceding company before being reported to the Company. We do not use claim frequency information in the Casualty Reinsurance segment in the determination of loss reserves or for other internal purposes. Based on these considerations, the Company does not believe providing claims frequency information is practicable as it relates to the Casualty Reinsurance segment. The table below provides information on IBNR liabilities and claims frequency for: (1) the Excess and Surplus Lines segment split between commercial auto and all non commercial auto, and (2) the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment split between individual risk workers’ compensation and fronting and programs: Excess and Surplus Lines — Excluding Commercial Auto Accident Year Incurred Losses IBNR Cumulative # of ($ in thousands) 2011 $ 104,280 $ 2,038 1,488 2012 106,118 1,586 1,850 2013 82,517 3,488 2,480 2014 90,191 6,804 2,198 2015 110,466 5,409 2,587 2016 125,097 15,213 3,023 2017 124,265 29,548 3,085 2018 146,633 52,940 4,267 2019 194,759 123,212 4,950 2020 239,897 206,389 3,115 Excess and Surplus Lines — Commercial Auto Accident Year Incurred Losses IBNR Cumulative # of ($ in thousands) 2013 $ 1,277 $ 1 54 2014 19,196 249 7,764 2015 37,839 639 41,766 2016 157,712 3,555 89,084 2017 319,472 4,303 134,055 2018 283,408 9,947 97,076 2019 240,773 40,372 70,707 2020 19,133 16,942 498 Specialty Admitted - Individual Risk Workers’ Compensation Accident Year Incurred Losses IBNR Cumulative # of ($ in thousands) 2011 $ 35,252 $ 532 $ 1,814 2012 27,741 602 1,323 2013 10,598 262 540 2014 12,573 298 850 2015 16,492 423 975 2016 14,050 1,527 836 2017 18,810 3,436 1,093 2018 16,038 4,020 1,238 2019 21,056 2,989 1,548 2020 20,137 2,842 1,305 Specialty Admitted — Fronting and Programs Accident Year Incurred Losses IBNR Cumulative # of ($ in thousands) 2013 $ 52 $ — 22 2014 3,081 150 858 2015 8,444 452 1,363 2016 14,468 1,900 2,815 2017 24,728 5,244 6,765 2018 19,822 4,998 7,318 2019 19,020 9,119 7,941 2020 25,433 14,743 6,956 The table below provides information on IBNR liabilities for the Casualty Reinsurance segment: Accident Year Incurred Losses IBNR ($ in thousands) 2011 $ 106,226 $ 819 2012 147,413 1,566 2013 149,682 2,427 2014 130,822 3,200 2015 120,185 5,147 2016 114,979 9,091 2017 138,831 17,173 2018 125,715 31,058 2019 85,549 49,717 2020 80,374 61,595 The Company has not provided insurance coverage that could reasonably be expected to produce material levels of asbestos claims activity. In addition, management does not believe that the Company is exposed to environmental liability claims other than those which it has specifically underwritten and priced as an environmental exposure. |