Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses | Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses In establishing the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses, the Company’s internal actuaries estimate an initial expected ultimate loss ratio for each of our lines of business by accident year (or for our Casualty Reinsurance segment, on a contract by contract basis). Input from the Company’s underwriting and claims departments, including premium pricing assumptions and historical experience, are considered by the Company’s internal actuaries in estimating the initial expected loss ratios. The Company’s internal actuaries generally utilize five actuarial methods in their estimation process for the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses. These five methods utilize, to varying degrees, the initial expected loss ratio, detailed statistical analysis of past claims reporting and payment patterns, claims frequency and severity, paid loss experience, industry loss experience, and changes in market conditions, policy forms, exclusions, and exposures. In applying these methods to develop an estimate of the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses, our internal actuaries use judgment to determine three key parameters for each accident year and line of business: the initial expected loss ratios, the incurred and paid loss development factors and the weighting of the five actuarial methods to be used for each accident year and line of business. For the Excess and Surplus Lines and Specialty Admitted Insurance segments, the internal actuary performs a study on each of these parameters annually in the third quarter and makes recommendations for the initial expected loss ratios, the incurred and paid loss development factors and the weighting of the five actuarial methods by accident year and line of business. Members of management’s Reserve Committee review and approve the parameter review actuarial recommendations, and these approved parameters are used in the reserve estimation process for the next four quarters at which time a new parameter study is performed. For the Casualty Reinsurance segment, periodic assessments are made on a contract by contract basis with the goal of keeping the initial expected loss ratios and the incurred and paid loss development factors as constant as possible until sufficient evidence presents itself to support adjustments. Method weights are generally less rigid for the Casualty Reinsurance segment given the heterogeneous nature of the various contracts, and the potential for significant changes in mix of business within individual treaties. Different reserving methods are appropriate in different situations, and the Company’s internal actuaries use their judgment and experience to determine the weighting of the methods to use for each accident year and each line of business and, for our Casualty Reinsurance segment, on a contract by contract basis. For example, the current accident year has very little incurred and paid loss development data on which to base reserve projections. As a result, the Company relies heavily on the initial expected loss ratio in estimating reserves for the current accident year. The Company generally sets the initial expected loss ratio for the current accident year consistent with the internal actuaries’ pricing assumptions. We believe that this is a reasonable and appropriate reserving assumption for the current accident year since our pricing assumptions are actuarially driven and since the Company expects to make an acceptable return on the new business written. If actual loss emergence is better than our initial expected loss ratio assumptions, we will experience favorable development and if it is worse than our initial expected loss ratio assumptions, we will experience adverse development. Conversely, sufficient incurred and paid loss 6. Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses (continued) development is available for the oldest accident years, so more weight is given to this development data and less weight is given to the initial expected loss ratio. Historically, the Company’s reserve selections for the Excess and Surplus Lines segment gave more weight to industry indications due to the Company’s limited operating history. When reviewing the Excess and Surplus Lines segment’s reserve parameters in 2013, our internal actuaries’ felt that there was enough Company history to give more weight to the Company’s own experience. Accordingly, the initial expected loss ratios, the paid loss development factors and the incurred loss development factors were adjusted to more closely resemble the Company’s own internal indications. Method weights were also changed as management, in consultation with our actuaries, deemed appropriate. These changes had the cumulative effect of reducing our then best estimate for the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses. The following table provides a reconciliation of the beginning and ending reserve balances for losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance, to the gross amounts reported in the consolidated balance sheets: Year Ended December 31, 2017 2016 2015 (in thousands) Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses net of reinsurance recoverables at beginning of period $ 761,128 $ 653,534 $ 589,042 Add: Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses net of reinsurance: Current year 533,905 349,137 295,334 Prior years 21,472 (23,716 ) (16,318 ) Total incurred losses and loss and adjustment expenses 555,377 325,421 279,016 Deduct: Loss and loss adjustment expense payments net of reinsurance: Current year 103,205 39,473 31,957 Prior years 223,475 178,354 182,567 Total loss and loss adjustment expense payments 326,680 217,827 214,524 Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses net of reinsurance recoverables at end of period 989,825 761,128 653,534 Add: Reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses at end of period 302,524 182,737 131,788 Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses gross of reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses at end of period $ 1,292,349 $ 943,865 $ 785,322 The foregoing reconciliation shows that $21.5 million of adverse development was experienced in 2017 on the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses held at December 31, 2016 . This adverse reserve development included $20.0 million of adverse development in the Excess and Surplus Lines segment, including $38.7 million of adverse development in the commercial auto line of business that was primarily related to the 2016 contract year with one insured. The adverse development for commercial auto was partially offset by favorable development of $18.6 million in other Excess and Surplus Lines underwriting divisions primarily from the 2014 through 2016 accident years. This favorable development occurred because our actuarial studies at December 31, 2017 for the Excess and Surplus Lines segment indicated that our loss experience on our casualty business excluding commercial auto continues to be below our initial expected ultimate loss ratios. The Company also experienced $2.7 million of favorable development on prior accident years in the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment primarily from accident years 2010 through 2015, as losses on our workers’ compensation business written prior to 2016 continued to develop more favorably than we had anticipated. The Casualty Reinsurance segment experienced $4.2 million of adverse development on prior accident years primarily from two contracts from 2010 through 2013 that had higher than expected reported losses in 2017. The foregoing reconciliation shows that a $23.7 million redundancy developed in 2016 on the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses held at December 31, 2015 . This favorable reserve development included $24.1 million of favorable development in the Excess and Surplus Lines segment primarily from the 2013 , 2014 and 2015 accident years with favorable development of $4.5 million , $10.7 million and $10.0 million , respectively. This favorable development occurred because our actuarial studies at December 31, 2016 for the Excess and Surplus Lines segment indicated that our loss experience on our 6. Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses (continued) casualty business continues to be below our initial expected ultimate loss ratios. The Company also experienced $3.8 million of favorable development on prior accident years in the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment primarily from accident years 2010 through 2014, as losses on our workers’ compensation business written prior to 2015 continued to develop more favorably than we had anticipated. The Casualty Reinsurance segment experienced $4.2 million of adverse development on prior accident years primarily from two contracts from 2012 and 2013 that had higher than expected reported losses in 2016. The foregoing reconciliation shows that a $16.3 million redundancy developed in 2015 on the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses held at December 31, 2014 . This favorable reserve development included $25.4 million of favorable development in the Excess and Surplus Lines segment. The Excess and Surplus Lines segment favorable development included $17.3 million of favorable development from the 2014 accident year and $10.5 million of favorable development from the 2013 accident year. This favorable development occurred because our actuarial studies at December 31, 2015 for the Excess and Surplus Lines segment indicated that our loss experience for our our shorter-tailed general casualty division book for the 2014 accident year is below our initial expected ultimate loss ratios. The actuarial studies at December 31, 2015 also showed that the experience on our other casualty business continues to be below our initial expected ultimate loss ratios. Favorable reserve development written in the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment was $3.5 million and primarily came from accident years 2011 through 2013, as losses on our workers’ compensation business written prior to 2014 continued to develop more favorably than we had anticipated. In addition, $12.6 million of adverse development occurred in the Casualty Reinsurance segment, with a majority of this adverse development coming from three reinsurers principally in the 2011, 2012, and 2013 underwriting years that experienced higher loss development in 2015 than expected. The following tables present incurred and paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance as of December 31, 2017 for: (1) the Excess and Surplus Lines segment split between all excess and surplus lines business excluding commercial auto and commercial auto, (2) the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment split between individual risk workers’ compensation and fronting and programs, and (3) the Casualty Reinsurance segment. The information provided herein about incurred and paid accident year claims development for the years ended December 31, 2016 and prior is presented as unaudited supplementary information. Excess and Surplus Lines — Excluding Commercial Auto Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2008 $ 120,760 $ 119,736 $ 116,817 $ 112,227 $ 107,927 $ 102,122 $ 99,169 $ 98,765 $ 96,687 $ 95,930 2009 114,834 110,783 106,480 98,502 86,691 81,764 83,431 83,846 85,470 2010 78,424 80,569 78,117 73,035 69,080 69,964 70,294 70,913 2011 111,190 119,927 114,473 106,564 106,381 106,130 106,643 2012 97,908 98,672 97,829 96,497 97,306 99,619 2013 96,729 96,064 85,433 81,009 82,830 2014 114,942 104,092 90,267 82,232 2015 126,443 113,417 104,847 2016 138,507 125,093 2017 144,349 Total $ 997,926 6. Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses (continued) Cumulative paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2008 $ 16,922 $ 35,228 $ 53,566 $ 69,585 $ 80,385 $ 83,937 $ 87,630 $ 91,750 $ 91,768 $ 92,332 2009 29,860 41,687 51,731 61,548 67,293 71,245 76,091 79,014 81,496 2010 13,673 26,418 35,812 45,641 52,071 57,371 61,307 64,214 2011 27,684 53,109 72,732 81,696 90,884 94,998 98,684 2012 6,944 33,757 49,604 63,216 74,869 82,545 2013 3,867 14,509 30,382 44,421 59,641 2014 3,412 16,969 28,212 43,891 2015 4,048 17,164 34,801 2016 5,180 22,852 2017 5,290 Total $ 585,746 All outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses prior to 2008, net of reinsurance $ 9,033 Total outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 421,213 Excess and Surplus Lines — Commercial Auto Incurred losses and adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 $ 1,255 $ 1,300 $ 1,451 $ 1,351 $ 1,301 2014 20,487 14,071 17,233 18,953 2015 30,109 33,113 35,149 2016 74,340 109,286 2017 207,355 Total $ 372,044 Cumulative paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 $ 60 $ 1,182 $ 1,285 $ 1,291 $ 1,275 2014 6,166 8,645 12,679 16,359 2015 8,356 15,234 24,282 2016 18,295 54,054 2017 41,467 Total $ 137,437 Total outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 234,607 6. Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses (continued) Specialty Admitted — Individual Risk Workers’ Compensation Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2008 $ 37,602 $ 36,641 $ 38,654 $ 38,807 $ 40,330 $ 40,552 $ 39,321 $ 39,320 $ 39,131 $ 39,001 2009 28,691 28,526 27,535 28,116 27,795 26,171 26,169 26,232 26,194 2010 27,209 28,736 30,464 30,373 28,963 28,938 27,590 27,098 2011 37,834 41,421 40,154 38,999 38,311 37,455 36,594 2012 32,116 32,420 31,490 29,689 28,255 28,174 2013 12,525 13,668 12,786 11,578 10,907 2014 16,638 16,652 14,620 13,890 2015 20,938 21,274 19,741 2016 21,678 20,299 2017 24,869 Total $ 246,767 Cumulative paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2008 $ 10,479 $ 22,664 $ 28,436 $ 31,432 $ 33,885 $ 36,778 $ 37,905 $ 37,933 $ 37,965 $ 37,976 2009 7,277 16,945 21,095 22,646 24,231 24,192 24,350 24,418 25,660 2010 7,157 16,245 21,805 23,898 25,210 25,477 26,345 26,352 2011 10,123 23,127 29,021 33,204 34,240 34,287 34,334 2012 9,222 20,308 24,755 26,435 26,897 26,932 2013 4,487 8,723 9,846 10,246 10,263 2014 4,633 10,648 12,041 12,236 2015 6,604 13,285 15,118 2016 4,664 10,227 2017 6,546 Total $ 205,644 All outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses prior to 2008, net of reinsurance $ 357 Outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses assumed from involuntary workers’ compensation pools $ 4,830 Total outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 46,310 Specialty Admitted — Fronting and Programs Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 $ 104 $ 80 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 2014 3,460 3,468 3,818 3,425 2015 7,136 9,632 9,358 2016 11,542 15,670 2017 21,229 Total $ 49,734 6. Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses (continued) Cumulative paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 $ 28 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 2014 883 1,687 2,369 2,728 2015 2,058 4,666 6,165 2016 1,894 5,123 2017 1,223 Total $ 15,291 Total outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 34,443 Casualty Reinsurance Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2008 $ 1,418 $ 3,215 $ 2,897 $ 2,859 $ 3,199 $ 3,473 $ 3,462 $ 3,467 $ 3,470 $ 3,488 2009 34,587 28,244 24,125 26,458 27,078 27,116 26,989 26,931 26,980 2010 64,413 60,476 61,068 62,714 61,344 60,949 60,978 61,619 2011 114,908 103,123 97,366 97,812 98,993 99,282 101,276 2012 148,251 132,388 131,281 135,594 136,813 139,978 2013 133,230 130,361 131,352 134,446 137,801 2014 118,881 115,927 114,636 116,981 2015 119,157 108,870 108,699 2016 112,759 105,533 2017 134,628 Total $ 936,983 Cumulative paid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (in thousands) Accident Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2008 $ 320 $ 616 $ 999 $ 1,595 $ 2,087 $ 2,478 $ 2,706 $ 2,929 $ 3,029 $ 3,074 2009 6,487 9,926 12,956 16,466 19,672 21,646 23,024 23,796 24,649 2010 21,918 31,500 38,430 44,921 49,263 52,761 54,659 57,013 2011 48,688 61,922 68,616 78,164 87,267 90,287 94,627 2012 73,124 81,859 97,215 113,943 121,026 128,567 2013 59,756 75,094 93,902 108,396 119,256 2014 41,421 58,601 76,302 89,899 2015 40,021 53,986 68,002 2016 36,268 50,905 2017 47,739 Total $ 683,731 Total outstanding losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 253,252 6. Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses (continued) The reconciliation of the net incurred and paid claims development tables to the reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses in the consolidated balance sheet at December 31, 2017 is as follows (in thousands): E&S – excluding commercial auto $ 421,213 E&S – commercial auto 234,607 Specialty Admitted – individual risk workers’ compensation 46,310 Specialty Admitted – fronting and programs 34,443 Casualty Reinsurance 253,252 Net reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses 989,825 Reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses 302,524 Gross reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses $ 1,292,349 The following is unaudited supplementary information about average annual percentage payouts of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance, for the Excess and Surplus Lines segment and the Specialty Admitted Insurance segments as of December 31, 2017 . The Specialty Admitted Insurance segment’s first full year of writing fronting and programs business was 2014, so the average annual percentage payouts for fronting and programs only shows four years of payout information. Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 E&S – excluding commercial auto 10.3 % 16.6 % 17.1 % 17.5 % 14.4 % 7.7 % 5.5 % 3.3 % 2.5 % 1.1 % E&S – commercial auto 21.6 % 40.4 % 15.1 % 13.9 % 7.1 % Specialty Admitted – individual risk workers’ compensation 28.0 % 32.7 % 13.6 % 6.1 % 3.4 % 1.4 % 1.0 % 0.1 % 0.5 % 0.0 % Specialty Admitted – fronting and programs 12.2 % 13.4 % 4.4 % 0.7 % Casualty Reinsurance 28.8 % 21.1 % 14.8 % 10.3 % 7.3 % 5.0 % 3.5 % 2.4 % 1.7 % 1.3 % In determining the cumulative number of reported claims, the Company measures claim counts by individual claimant for individual risk workers’ compensation policies in the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment. In the Excess and Surplus Lines insurance segment and for fronting and programs in the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment, the Company measures claim counts by claim event. The claim counts include all claims reported, even if the Company does not establish a liability for the claim (i.e. reserve for loss and loss adjustment expenses). The Casualty Reinsurance segment typically assumes written premium under quota share arrangements. The Company typically does not have direct access to claim frequency information underlying its assumed quota arrangements given the nature of that business. In addition, multiple claims are often aggregated by the ceding company before being reported to the Company. We do not use claim frequency information in the Casualty Reinsurance segment in the determination of loss reserves or for other internal purposes. Based on these considerations, the Company does not believe providing claims frequency information is practicable as it relates to the Casualty Reinsurance segment. The table below provides information on IBNR liabilities and claims frequency for: (1) the Excess and Surplus Lines segment split between commercial auto and all non commercial auto, and (2) the Specialty Admitted Insurance segment split between individual risk workers’ compensation and fronting and programs: 6. Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses (continued) Excess and Surplus Lines — Excluding Commercial Auto Accident Year Incurred Losses IBNR Cumulative # of ($ in thousands) 2008 $ 87,112 $ 3,169 2,283 2009 58,371 2,831 1,677 2010 60,883 3,563 1,367 2011 55,514 5,834 1,443 2012 82,142 8,692 1,725 2013 82,830 14,382 2,223 2014 82,232 23,241 2,024 2015 104,847 46,275 2,292 2016 125,093 77,940 2,468 2017 144,349 123,432 2,052 Excess and Surplus Lines — Commercial Auto Accident Year Incurred Losses and Loss Adj Expenses IBNR Cumulative # of Reported Claims ($ in thousands) 2013 $ 1,301 $ 26 54 2014 18,953 791 7,748 2015 35,149 5,098 41,640 2016 109,286 20,321 87,920 2017 207,355 105,097 125,863 Specialty Admitted - Individual Risk Workers’ Compensation Accident Year Incurred Losses IBNR Cumulative # of ($ in thousands) 2008 $ 39,001 $ 663 2,012 2009 26,194 534 1,490 2010 27,098 700 1,604 2011 36,594 1,632 1,814 2012 28,174 809 1,323 2013 10,907 502 540 2014 13,890 1,506 850 2015 19,741 3,431 975 2016 20,299 6,409 831 2017 24,803 4,617 1,036 6. Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses (continued) Specialty Admitted — Fronting and Programs Accident Year Incurred Losses IBNR Cumulative # of ($ in thousands) 2013 $ 52 $ — 22 2014 3,041 384 857 2015 8,081 1,277 1,347 2016 12,050 3,620 2,730 2017 8,523 12,706 5,421 The Company has not provided insurance coverage that could reasonably be expected to produce material levels of asbestos claims activity. In addition, management does not believe that the Company is exposed to environmental liability claims other than those which it has specifically underwritten and priced as an environmental exposure. |