Item 2.02 | Results of Operations and Financial Condition. |
The information discussed under Item 7.01 of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated by reference into this Item 2.02.
Item 7.01 | Regulation FD Disclosure. |
A summary of a presentation providing certain information regarding Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, Inc., a Maryland corporation (“BREIT” or the “Company”), is set forth below in this Current Report on Form 8-K (the “Current Report”) under this Item 7.01. In addition, the Company has posted the full presentation on its website at www.breit.com under “For Stockholders” in the “Resources” section.
BREIT Q2 2023 Update
Now more than ever, where you invest matters. We are proud that BREIT has delivered strong performance for our investors across market cycles: +1.8% in the second quarter and a +12% annualized net return (Class I) since inception over six years ago, nearly triple the return of the publicly traded REITs.1,2 Our outperformance has always been grounded in using the Blackstone platform’s vast data and insights to invest behind secular shifts and see around corners to construct a high conviction portfolio.
Today, not all real estate is created equal. Higher interest rates and changes in the way we live and work are driving a significant bifurcation in performance across real estate sectors. While there continue to be challenges in commodity office, where BREIT has virtually no exposure, there is still demand for the best real estate in the best markets, which we believe BREIT owns.3 In fact, BREIT’s portfolio has generated an estimated 7%+ cash flow growth YTD, more than double inflation today.4 We are the largest owner of student housing in the United States, an all-weather sector where accelerating supply and demand fundamentals are driving outsized market rent growth of +9% year-over-year.5,6 Similarly, we are seeing unprecedented strength in industrial. The push by consumers for ‘2-hour’ vs ‘2-day’ delivery is accelerating demand for our last mile warehouses. The combination of this secular shift to e-commerce and onshoring of manufacturing has resulted in record low vacancy of 3% and leases being signed at 43% higher rents than expiring leases.7,8
Just like e-commerce drove demand for warehouses, cloud computing, content creation and the artificial intelligence (“AI”) revolution have driven a 49x increase in data creation and consumption over the last decade.9 Large technology companies are in the midst of an AI arms race which we believe will be a once-in-a-generation engine for future growth in data centers and is driving tremendous demand on the ground. We are capitalizing on this through our ownership of QTS, one of the fastest growing data center companies.10 Since our acquisition, we have tripled QTS’ size and have line of sight to double it again over the next few years through a strong development pipeline.11 With the release of ChatGPT alone, our data center business saw a step function increase in demand, with our leasing pipeline more than doubling since last year.12
Geography and market selection are equally important. BREIT’s top two markets are Florida and Texas, the fastest growing states in 2022.15 BREIT’s recent $800M sale of a hotel asset in Texas, the JW Marriott San Antonio, resulted in a profit of ~$275M, doubling our investors’ capital in just five years.16 In stark contrast, that same week, a different owner defaulted on two hotels in downtown San Francisco with values ultimately declining ~54% since 2016.17 This is not a coincidence: Texas is booming while San Francisco is facing significant challenges. In addition to avoiding challenged urban markets, BREIT has avoided distressed sectors like commodity office, for-sale housing and malls.3 Even before COVID, Blackstone Real Estate saw weakness in the office sector as capital expenditures were rising faster than rents and intentionally reduced its U.S. traditional office exposure from ~60% in 2007 to ~2% today.18,19
While rising interest rates have presented challenges for investors across asset classes, BREIT locked in low rates for over 90% of our balance sheet, insulating and positioning the portfolio for a higher rate environment.20 In addition, BREIT’s structure is working as designed to prevent a liquidity mismatch and maximize shareholder value.21 Since proration began, BREIT has paid out $8.1B to redeeming shareholders and a shareholder who began submitting repurchase requests when proration began has received over 90% of their money back.22,23
Looking ahead, we believe BREIT is poised to perform. Our valuations reflect a higher interest rate environment, having increased our assumed exit cap rates (lowered valuation multiples) in our key sectors by +18% since December 2021.24 Today, inflation is increasingly moving into the rearview mirror, which has helped stabilize long-term interest rates and, in turn, we’ve seen a stabilization of BREIT’s assumed exit cap rates over the past several months. As this major headwind subsides, our high-quality real estate portfolio in the right sectors and markets is generating strong cash flow growth that has not only driven performance year to date, but we believe will continue to do so going forward.4 The fundamentals in our high conviction sectors are solid and we’ve seen ~25%-60%+ declines in new supply in rental housing and industrial due to higher construction and financing costs.25 In addition, BREIT’s rents in our core sectors are below market: in multifamily and industrial specifically, market rents are 18% higher than BREIT’s in-place rents, creating significant embedded rent growth potential.26