Item 2.02 | Results of Operations and Financial Condition. |
The information discussed under Item 7.01 of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated by reference into this Item 2.02.
Item 7.01 | Regulation FD Disclosure. |
A summary of a presentation providing certain information regarding Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, Inc., a Maryland corporation (“BREIT” or the “Company”), is set forth below in this Current Report on Form 8-K (the “Current Report”) under this Item 7.01. In addition, the Company has posted the full presentation on its website at www.breit.com under “For Stockholders” in the “Resources” section.
BREIT Q3 2023 Update
BREIT was designed as an all-weather strategy to build long-term wealth across market cycles. We are pleased that BREIT has generated a +12% annualized net return (Class I) since inception almost seven years ago, ~4x publicly traded REITs.1,2 In the third quarter, BREIT (Class I) returned +2.0% and, over the last year, it has delivered ~800 basis points of outperformance vs. our non-listed REIT peers.1,3
We currently find ourselves in a “higher for longer” interest rate environment, with the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield ending the third quarter at 4.6%. We have been operating in a rising rate environment for almost two years and during this period BREIT continued to deliver resilient performance.1 How has this positive performance been achieved? Not all real estate is created equal and where you invest really matters. At Blackstone, performance is our north star and we believe BREIT’s thoughtfully curated portfolio and high conviction, thematic investment approach are differentiated in the current environment.
Invest with the wind at your back: our high conviction, thematic approach
Since BREIT’s inception, we have been focused on sectors and markets that benefit from secular growth tailwinds which drive strong demand and cash flow growth. Looking under the hood, BREIT’s portfolio is over 50% concentrated in sectors which are experiencing high single digit or greater market rent growth, and ~70% concentrated in Sunbelt markets where population, job and wage growth are higher than the rest of the country.4,5 This has resulted in 6%+ estimated cash flow growth year to date across BREIT’s portfolio, nearly 2x inflation today.6 Additionally, market rents are 16% above BREIT’s in-place rents today, meaning as leases expire, we have the potential to adjust rents to prevailing market rates even in the absence of future rent growth.7
Back to basics: it’s all about supply and demand
While our high conviction themes are underpinned by strong demand drivers, supply is equally important. Rising rates have driven a meaningful decline in new construction which should lead to better fundamentals in the medium-term. New warehouse construction starts are down nearly 80% while apartment construction starts are down 30%+ since their peaks in 2022.8,9 Watching these trends unfold today is among the reasons why we have tremendous conviction in the outlook for BREIT.
Our early investment in data centers is a prime example of the power of both exceptionally strong demand and constrained supply. Large technology companies are in the midst of an AI arms race which we believe will be a once-in-a-generation engine for future growth in data centers. Today, we continue to see record setting demand with 22% market rent growth for 2023.10 At the same time, data center vacancy is at frictional levels (less than 3%) driven by limited supply and the need for continued development in the space.11 Since Blackstone’s acquisition of QTS Data Centers in 2021, we have tripled the size of the company, and have amassed a $15B+ data center development pipeline pre-leased to major technology companies at ~50%+ profit margins.12,13 BREIT’s exposure to data centers is now 8% of the portfolio, and data centers have been the single largest contributor to BREIT’s returns this year.14
A balance sheet insulated from rising rates and a semi-liquid structure that is working
In 2021, we anticipated an elevated interest rate environment and proactively hedged our balance sheet. BREIT benefits from 91% fixed-rate financing for the next 5 years at a 4.1% weighted average interest rate, and BREIT’s hedges have resulted in $1B+ of interest expense savings per year.15,16 While BREIT’s real estate investments have driven the vast majority of returns year to date, our active management of our balance sheet has also contributed positively to performance. Additionally, over the last year, our semi-liquid structure has worked as designed – allowing us to deliver both continued strong performance and $11.3B of liquidity to investors in a deliberate and thoughtful way.17,18 In fact, a shareholder who began submitting repurchase requests when proration began has received ~97% of their money back, and those who began submitting in the third quarter alone have received ~73% of their money back.19
Not ignoring the world around us: valuations adjusted in real-time
Rising interest rates continue to impact valuations in all asset classes, including real estate. BREIT has led the industry in adjusting valuations to reflect the rising rate environment. We remain disciplined and have widened assumed exit cap rates by +13% and discount rates by +10% since December 2021.20 Notably, during this period of cap rate expansion, there has been robust demand for BREIT’s assets at a premium: BREIT has sold $15B of lower-growth or non-core real estate at an average 4% premium to carrying values, generating over $3B of profit for BREIT investors.21