Reserves for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses | Reserves for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses The reserves for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses represent the Company's estimated ultimate cost of all unreported and reported but unpaid insured claims and the cost to adjust these claims. Reserves are estimated using individual case-basis valuations of reported claims and statistical analyses. Case reserves are established for individual claims that have been reported to the Company, typically by the Company's insureds or their brokers. Based on the information provided, case reserves are established by estimating the ultimate losses from the claim, including defense costs associated with the ultimate settlement of the claim. Incurred-but-not-reported ("IBNR") reserves are determined using actuarial methods to estimate losses that have occurred but have not yet been reported to the Company. The incurred Bornhuetter-Ferguson actuarial method ("BF method") is used to arrive at the Company's loss reserve estimates for each line of business. This method estimates the reserves based on the initial expected loss ratio and expected reporting patterns for losses. Because the Company has a limited number of years of loss experience compared to the period over which losses are expected to be reported, the Company uses industry and peer-group data, in addition to its own data, as a basis for selecting its expected reporting patterns. As part of the reserving process, the Company reviews historical data and considers the effect of various factors on claims development patterns including polices written on a "claims made" versus "occurrence" basis. Policies written on a claims made basis provide coverage to the insured only for losses incurred during the coverage period, and only if the claim was reported during a specified reporting period. Policies written on an occurrence basis provide coverage to the insured for liabilities arising from events occurring during the term of the policy, regardless of when a claim is actually made. Accordingly, claims related to policies written on an occurrence basis may arise many years after a policy has lapsed. Property losses, while written on an occurrence basis, are generally reported within a short time from the date of loss, and in most instances, property claims are settled and paid within a relatively short period of time. The following table presents a reconciliation of consolidated beginning and ending reserves for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses: December 31, 2023 2022 2021 (in thousands) Gross reserves for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, beginning of year $ 1,238,402 $ 881,344 $ 636,013 Less: reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses 177,039 117,561 83,730 Net reserves for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, beginning of year 1,061,363 763,783 552,283 Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses: Current year 635,993 493,800 356,401 Prior years (35,774) (35,887) (31,986) Total net losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred 600,219 457,913 324,415 Payments: Current year 38,565 49,205 23,765 Prior years 171,499 111,128 89,150 Total payments 210,064 160,333 112,915 Net reserves for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, end of year 1,451,518 1,061,363 763,783 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses, net of allowance 241,357 177,039 117,561 Gross reserves for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, end of year $ 1,692,875 $ 1,238,402 $ 881,344 During the year ended December 31, 2023, prior accident years developed favorably by $35.8 million, of which $49.0 million was attributable to the 2021 and 2022 accident years due to lower emergence of reported losses than expected across most lines of business. This favorable development was offset in part by adverse development largely from the 2017 through 2019 accident years due to long-tailed property damage claims within the construction-related primary casualty business that are more exposed to the increase in inflation. During the year ended December 31, 2022, prior accident years developed favorably by $35.9 million, of which $41.8 million was attributable to the 2020 and 2021 accident years due to lower emergence of reported losses than expected across most lines of business. This favorable development was offset in part by adverse development largely from the 2016 and 2018 accident years due to routine variability in reported losses and modest adjustments in actuarial assumptions. Current accident year incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses for the year ended December 31, 2022 included $26.6 million of catastrophe losses primarily related to Hurricane Ian. During the year ended December 31, 2021, prior accident years developed favorably by $32.0 million, of which $33.7 million was attributable to the 2020 accident year and was related to a lower-than-expected levels of reported losses. Although the Company did not have any significant direct COVID-19 loss exposure, the related disruption in the court system and the general economy created additional uncertainty in estimating loss reserves in 2020. As a result, accident year 2020 actuarial assumptions were adjusted in 2020 to increase IBNR to account for this additional uncertainty. In 2021, the Company's outlook was more favorable than in the prior year and, based on observed trends, the Company reevaluated and adjusted certain assumptions for accident year 2020 to reflect the favorable experience. In addition, $3.8 million of favorable development was attributable to accident year 2019 due to reported losses emerging at lower levels than expected. This favorable development was offset in part by adverse development, mostly attributable to the 2016 and 2018 accident years due to modest adjustments in actuarial assumptions. Current accident year incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses for the year ended December 31, 2021 included $8.6 million of catastrophe losses primarily related to Hurricane Ida and winter storms Uri and Viola in Texas. Incurred and Paid Claims Development The following is information about incurred and paid claims development as of December 31, 2023, net of reinsurance, as well as cumulative claim frequency and the total of IBNR liabilities plus expected development on reported claims included within the net incurred claims amounts. The development and claims duration tables below exclude commuted multi-line quota-share reinsurance treaty ("MLQS") contracts, which would distort development patterns related to those transactions. Cumulative number of reported claims is reported on a per claim basis. The information about incurred and paid claims development for the years ended December 31, 2014 to December 31, 2022, is presented as unaudited supplementary information. Property Incurred Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, As of December 31, 2023 Accident Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total of IBNR Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims ($ in thousands) 2019 $ 14,914 $ 13,909 $ 15,572 $ 16,748 $ 15,357 $ — 643 2020 40,612 37,939 36,807 37,078 214 2,309 2021 36,531 33,518 29,750 1,403 1,144 2022 67,127 53,676 4,744 2,330 2023 75,517 47,874 902 Total $ 211,378 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Accident Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ($ in thousands) 2019 $ 9,852 $ 12,581 $ 13,996 $ 14,511 $ 15,223 2020 19,897 30,321 31,765 35,023 2021 14,268 21,257 27,324 2022 33,004 46,965 2023 20,267 Total 144,802 All outstanding liabilities before 2019, net of reinsurance 3 Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 66,579 Historical Claims Duration The following is supplementary information about average historical claims duration as of December 31, 2023: Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance (Unaudited) Years 1 2 3 4 5 Property 50.8 % 23.8 % 11.2 % 6.1 % 4.6 % Casualty - Claims Made Incurred Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, As of December 31, 2023 Accident Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total of IBNR Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims ($ in thousands) 2014 $ 18,847 $ 14,289 $ 11,748 $ 11,217 $ 10,948 $ 10,988 $ 10,620 $ 10,266 $ 9,880 $ 9,868 $ 177 273 2015 18,883 16,777 14,896 13,583 13,942 13,548 13,414 13,066 12,759 93 259 2016 19,170 14,693 14,675 14,322 13,583 13,602 13,228 12,707 16 311 2017 18,116 17,097 16,120 15,794 14,989 13,698 13,471 661 372 2018 22,429 20,234 18,612 17,057 14,411 14,272 1,346 465 2019 34,693 29,056 26,426 24,489 21,788 4,227 562 2020 55,630 44,641 38,287 33,667 13,458 784 2021 84,018 66,191 52,935 36,436 1,077 2022 101,064 81,394 59,239 1,205 2023 115,858 98,185 1,336 Total $ 368,719 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Accident Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ($ in thousands) 2014 $ 435 $ 1,865 $ 5,039 $ 6,385 $ 8,290 $ 9,415 $ 9,491 $ 9,628 $ 9,638 $ 9,691 2015 217 4,496 7,563 9,238 11,372 11,522 12,142 12,463 12,474 2016 1,158 3,015 6,907 9,839 11,381 12,105 12,299 12,691 2017 340 4,897 8,252 10,484 11,357 12,235 12,335 2018 507 5,030 8,931 10,330 11,205 12,623 2019 2,487 6,005 10,123 14,476 15,406 2020 1,002 7,446 12,551 18,589 2021 1,146 8,437 12,895 2022 3,052 12,381 2023 4,830 Total 123,915 All outstanding liabilities before 2014, net of reinsurance 76 Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 244,880 Casualty - Occurrence Incurred Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, As of December 31, 2023 Accident Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total of IBNR Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims ($ in thousands) 2014 $ 47,805 $ 40,668 $ 38,049 $ 36,678 $ 39,313 $ 41,859 $ 42,434 $ 41,367 $ 41,677 $ 41,820 $ 2,546 1,261 2015 59,717 51,739 49,122 52,100 54,697 54,090 54,090 54,637 55,259 4,062 1,913 2016 61,440 55,680 53,549 55,534 57,401 60,861 64,612 65,323 6,331 1,640 2017 71,126 67,151 68,985 70,641 71,117 69,911 76,715 10,589 2,141 2018 86,157 78,331 78,386 83,952 93,215 97,005 17,691 2,380 2019 112,266 109,994 108,138 107,480 115,681 35,995 2,370 2020 154,619 136,212 131,082 135,045 86,636 2,681 2021 200,598 190,879 193,722 144,372 2,827 2022 272,692 271,399 227,940 3,064 2023 372,245 358,062 2,195 Total $ 1,424,214 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Accident Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ($ in thousands) 2014 $ 698 $ 3,081 $ 8,489 $ 17,576 $ 23,771 $ 31,026 $ 34,338 $ 35,807 $ 37,375 $ 38,169 2015 941 3,161 12,685 28,385 37,690 41,724 44,161 47,106 49,147 2016 1,099 6,015 17,225 28,924 34,437 43,311 51,533 55,595 2017 1,581 9,352 22,407 37,736 46,025 52,069 61,108 2018 2,638 10,995 22,860 35,138 54,441 72,174 2019 3,944 16,687 30,518 46,478 69,384 2020 2,400 8,673 17,805 32,606 2021 3,205 12,944 31,494 2022 4,658 23,084 2023 4,329 Total 437,090 All outstanding liabilities before 2014, net of reinsurance 2,868 Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 989,992 Historical Claims Duration The following is supplementary information about average historical claims duration as of December 31, 2023: Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance (Unaudited) Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Casualty - claims made 4.6 % 21.0 % 22.7 % 16.3 % 10.8 % 6.9 % 2.0 % 2.3 % 0.1 % 0.5 % Casualty - occurrence 2.0 % 7.1 % 13.1 % 17.9 % 15.1 % 12.9 % 9.2 % 5.0 % 3.7 % 1.9 % Reconciliation of Incurred and Paid Claims Development to the Liability for Unpaid Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses The reconciliation of the net incurred and paid claims development tables to the liability for unpaid claims and claim adjustment expenses in the consolidated statement of financial position is as follows: (in thousands) December 31, 2023 Net outstanding liabilities Property $ 66,579 Casualty - claims made 244,880 Casualty - occurrence 989,992 Liabilities for unpaid claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance 1,301,451 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid claims Property 60,888 Casualty - claims made 21,393 Casualty - occurrence 159,820 Allowance for credit losses (744) Total reinsurance recoverable on unpaid claims 241,357 Unallocated claims adjustment expenses 149,323 Allowance for credit losses 744 Gross liability for unpaid claims and claim adjustment expense $ 1,692,875 |