Fair Value Measurements | Note 6 - Fair Value Measurements The Trust carries its life insurance policies at fair value. Fair value is defined as an exit price, representing the amount that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date. Fair value measurements are classified based on the following fair value hierarchy: Level 1 - Valuation is based on unadjusted quoted prices in active markets for identical assets and liabilities that are accessible at the reporting date. Since valuations are based on quoted prices that are readily and regularly available in an active market, valuation of these products does not entail a significant degree of judgment. Level 2 - Valuation is determined from pricing inputs that are other than quoted prices in active markets that are either directly or indirectly observable as of the reporting date. Observable inputs include quoted prices for similar assets or liabilities in active markets, quoted prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in markets that are not active, and interest rates and yield curves that are observable at commonly quoted intervals. Level 3 - Valuation is based on inputs that are both significant to the fair value measurement and unobservable. Level 3 inputs include situations where there is little, if any, market activity for the financial instrument. The inputs into the determination of fair value generally require significant management judgment or estimation. The balances of the Trust's assets measured at fair value on a recurring basis as of March 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017, are as follows: As of March 31, 2018: Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Total Fair Value Assets: Investment in life insurance policies $ - $ - $ 257,560,021 $ 257,560,021 $ - $ - $ 257,560,021 $ 257,560,021 As of December 31, 2017: Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Total Fair Value Assets: Investment in life insurance policies $ - $ - $ 272,140,787 $ 272,140,787 $ - $ - $ 272,140,787 $ 272,140,787 Quantitative Information about Level 3 Fair Value Measurements Fair Value at 3/31/2018 Face Value at 3/31/2018 Valuation Technique(s) Unobservable Inputs Range (Weighted Average) Life insurance policies $ 257,560,021 $ 1,281,463,446 Discounted cash flow Discount rate 25.8%-31.8 % Fair Value at 12/31/2017 Face Value at 12/31/2017 Valuation Technique(s) Unobservable Inputs Range (Weighted Average) Life insurance policies $ 272,140,787 $ 1,262,927,734 Discounted cash flow Discount rate 25.4%-31.8 % Following is a description of the methodologies used to estimate the assets’ fair value measured on a recurring basis and within the above fair value hierarchy. In assessing and determining the PHT Portfolio’s valuation, the Position Holder Trust retained Lewis & Ellis, Inc. as its principal actuaries. The PHT Portfolio’s value was estimated using an actuarially based approach incorporating net cash flows and life expectancies. This approach applies a monthly mortality scale as generated by the specific life expectancy (“LE”) and/or a default mortality multiplier of each insured which is used to project the PHT Portfolio’s present value of net cash flows (death benefits less premium payments and Servicing Company compensation). The mortality scale is actuarially rolled forward from the LE underwriting date to the valuation date. The Trust will not obtain current medical information for each insured which would be necessary to update the LE’s due to the significant time and financial burden that would be required. Accordingly, as LE’s become aged, less weight will be applied to them and more weight will be placed with the default mortality multiplier. A 25% discount will be applied quarterly starting 21 months past the underwriting date until the aged LE date is fully discounted and replaced by the default mortality multiplier. An LE that is 24 to 26 months old will have a 50% discount, an LE that is 27 to 29 months old will have a 75% discount, and an LE greater than or equal to 30 months will solely use the default mortality multiplier, as described below. If a policy did not have a LE, or the LE became aged, a default mortality multiplier, based on the mortality tables developed by the U.S. Society of Actuaries was applied. Currently, the mortality multipliers used are 100% for the life settlements and 350% for the viaticals, regardless of gender. On a quarterly basis, we will compare actual mortalities to expected mortalities and refine the mortality multipliers as appropriate. The Servicing Company is paid 2.65% of each maturity as compensation. The estimated cash flows of the Policies are net of such compensation. The monthly net cash flows with interest and survivorship were discounted to arrive at the PHT Portfolio’s estimated value as of March 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017. Future changes in the life expectancies and estimated cash flows could have a material effect on the PHT Portfolio’s fair value, and the Trust’s financial condition and results of operations. Life expectancy sensitivity analysis The table below reflects the effect on the PHT Portfolio’s fair value if the actual life expectancy experienced is 5% less or 5% more than is currently estimated. If the life expectancy estimate increases by 5% or decreases by 5%, the change in estimated fair value of the life insurance policies as of March 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017 would be as follows: As of March 31, 2018 Life Expectancy Months Adjustment Average Life Expectancy Value Change in Value -5% $ 272,762,555 $ 15,202,534 No change 3.8 years $ 257,560,021 $ - + 5% $ 241,792,499 $ (15,767,522 ) As of December 31, 2017 Life Expectancy Months Adjustment Average Life Expectancy Value Change in Value -5% $ 286,717,730 $ 14,576,943 No change 3.6 years $ 272,140,787 $ - + 5% $ 257,057,325 $ (15,083,462 ) Discount rate The discount rate is another significant input in the fair value determination. The Trust’s estimate incorporates market factors, the size of the portfolio, and various policy specific quantitative and qualitative factors including known information about the underlying insurance policy, its economics, the insured and the insurer. The effect of changes in the weighted average discount rate on the death benefit and premiums used to estimate the PHT Portfolio’s fair value has been analyzed. If the weighted average discount rate increased or decreased by 2 percentage points and the other assumptions used to estimate fair value remained the same, the change in estimated fair value as of March 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017 would be as follows: As of March 31, 2018 Rate Adjustment Value Change in Value + 2% $ 245,330,489 $ (12,229,532 ) No change $ 257,560,021 $ - - 2% $ 271,092,809 $ 13,532,788 As of December 31, 2017 Rate Adjustment Value Change in Value +2% $ 259,806,309 $ (12,334,478 ) No change $ 272,140,787 $ - - 2% $ 285,785,223 $ 13,644,436 Future changes in the discount rates used by the Trust to value life insurance policies could have a material effect on the Trust's yield on life settlement transactions, which could have a material adverse effect on the Trust’s financial condition and results of operations. The Trust re-evaluates its discount rates at the end of every reporting period in order to estimate the discount rates that could reasonably be used by market participants in a transaction involving the Trust's life insurance policies. In doing so, the Trust engages third party consultants to corroborate its assessment, engages in discussions with other market participants and extrapolates the discount rate underlying actual sales of insurance policies. Credit Exposure to Insurance Companies The following table provides information about the life insurance issuer concentrations that exceed 10% of total death benefit or 10% of total fair value of the Trust's life insurance policies as of March 31, 2018: Carrier Percentage of Face Value Percentage of Fair Value Carrier Rating The Lincoln National Life Insurance 10.6 % 13.5 % A + Transamerica Financial Life Insurance 9.5 % 12.2 % A + John Hancock Life Insurance (USA) 7.5 % 12.4 % A + The following table provides information about the life insurance issuer concentrations that exceed 10% of total death benefit or 10% of total fair value of the Trust's life insurance policies as of December 31, 2017: Carrier Percentage of Face Value Percentage of Fair Value Carrier Rating The Lincoln National Life Insurance 11.5 % 13.6 % A + Transamerica Financial Life Insurance 9.4 % 11.5 % A + John Hancock Life Insurance (USA) 7.9 % 12.4 % A + Changes in Fair Value The following table provides a roll-forward in the changes in fair value for the Trust’s life insurance policies: Balance at December 31, 2017 $ 272,140,787 Realized gain on matured policies 11,064,379 Unrealized loss on assets held (18,953,112 ) Change in fair value (7,888,733 ) Matured policies, net of fees (16,974,197 ) Premiums paid 10,282,164 Balance at March 31, 2018 $ 257,560,021 Balance at December 31, 2016 $ 263,579,040 Realized gain on matured policies 11,372,839 Unrealized loss on assets held (980,744 ) Change in fair value 10,392,095 Matured policies, net of fees (12,255,875 ) Premiums paid 7,263,898 Balance at March 31, 2017 $ 268,979,158 Other Fair Value Considerations - All assets and liabilities except for the life insurance policies, which includes cash, maturities and premium receivable, notes payable and premium and maturity liability, are accounted for at their carrying value which approximates fair value. |