Fair Value Measurements | Fair Value Measurements The Trust carries its life insurance policies at fair value. Fair value is defined as an exit price, representing the amount that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date. Fair value measurements are classified based on the following fair value hierarchy: Level 1 — Valuation is based on unadjusted quoted prices in active markets for identical assets and liabilities that are accessible at the reporting date. Since valuations are based on quoted prices that are readily and regularly available in an active market, valuation of these products does not entail a significant degree of judgment. Level 2 — Valuation is determined from pricing inputs that are other than quoted prices in active markets that are either directly or indirectly observable as of the reporting date. Observable inputs include quoted prices for similar assets or liabilities in active markets, quoted prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in markets that are not active, and interest rates and yield curves that are observable at commonly quoted intervals. Level 3 — Valuation is based on inputs that are both significant to the fair value measurement and unobservable. Level 3 inputs include situations where there is little, if any, market activity for the financial instrument. The inputs into the determination of fair value generally require significant management judgment or estimation. The balances of the Trust's assets measured at fair value on a recurring basis as of December 31, 2019 and 2018, are as follows: As of December 31, 2019 As of December 31, 2018 Assets: Investments in Life Insurance Policies Level 1 $ — $ — Level 2 $ — $ — Level 3 $ 172,242,734 $ 186,251,760 Total Fair Value $ 172,242,734 $ 186,251,760 Quantitative Information about Level 3 Fair Value Measurements Life insurance policies December 31, 2019 December 31, 2018 Fair Value $ 172,242,734 $ 186,251,760 Face Value $ 1,129,545,328 $ 1,258,390,716 Valuation Techniques Discounted cash flow Discounted cash flow Unobservable Inputs Discount rate, Mortality assumptions Discount rate, Mortality assumptions Discount rate range 24.7% - 25.7% 24.8% - 25.8% Mortality assumptions - 2015 VBT mortality multipliers: Life settlements 90% - 110% 90% - 110% Viaticals 350% 350% The life insurance policies’ fair value estimates were reduced significantly in 2018. The primary cause of the change was the use of standard mortality multipliers for all policies as opposed to using previous life expectancy estimates that were previously determined by the Debtor for certain policies. A secondary cause was the increase in the cost of insurance imposed by certain life insurance companies on a number of policies in the PHT Portfolio. In assessing and determining the PHT Portfolio’s valuation, the Position Holder Trust retained Lewis & Ellis, Inc. as its principal actuaries. The following is a summary of the methodology used to estimate the assets’ fair value measured on a recurring basis and within the above fair value hierarchy. The overall fair value methodology has been consistently applied; however, certain assumptions are revised as appropriate at each reporting period. Through the first quarter of 2018, the PHT Portfolio’s value was estimated using an actuarially based approach incorporating net cash flows and life expectancies as provided by third-party life expectancy providers when they were available. This approach applied a monthly mortality scale as generated by the specific life expectancy (“LE”) and/or a default mortality multiplier of each insured which was used to project the PHT Portfolio’s present value of net cash flows (death benefits less premium payments and servicing company compensation). The mortality scale was actuarially rolled forward from the LE underwriting date to the valuation date. The LEs that the Trust holds were issued by life expectancy providers to the Debtor during the course of the bankruptcy. The LEs were approaching, and in some cases exceeding, two years since issuance. As LEs age, they become less reliable because they are based on increasingly out of date medical information. After two years, many industry participants obtain new medical information from insureds and purchase new LEs. The Trust does not purchase new LEs because of the significant time and financial burden that would be required to obtain new medical releases from the insureds and collect their medical records from various doctors, clinics and hospitals. Because it had a number of LEs that were becoming aged and, thus, less reliable, the Trust began to incrementally phase out the LEs in favor of a mortality multiplier based on the 2015 Valuation Basic Table produced by the U.S. Society of Actuaries (“2015 VBT”) beginning in December 31, 2017. Accordingly, as the LEs aged, less weight would be applied to them and more weight would be placed with the default mortality multiplier. A 25% discount would be applied quarterly starting 21 months past the underwriting date until the aged LE date was fully discounted and replaced by the default mortality multiplier. A LE that is 24 to 26 months old would have a 50% discount, an LE that is 27 to 29 months old will have a 75% discount, and an LE greater than or equal to 30 months would only use the default mortality multiplier, as described below. If a policy did not have a LE, or the LE became aged, a default mortality multiplier was used, based on the 2015 VBT. The Trust eliminated reliance on its LEs in favor of the mortality multiplier by the second quarter of 2018. As a result of its planned comparison of actual to expected mortalities during the second quarter of 2018, the Trust noticed a growing divergence between actual and expected maturities. After further analysis, the Trust determined that the LEs in its possession were less reliable than previously understood and that the mortality multipliers were providing more accurate longevity projections across the portfolio. Accordingly, the Trust’s management decided to accelerate its migration towards the mortality multipliers and stop using the LEs. Beginning in the second quarter of 2018, the PHT Portfolio’s value has been estimated using an actuarially based approach incorporating net cash flows and life expectancies as determined by a default mortality multiplier based on the 2015 VBT. A default mortality multiplier for each insured was used to project the PHT Portfolio’s present value of net cash flows (death benefits less premium payments and servicing company compensation). The mortality multipliers used in 2019 and 2018 are 110% for males and 90% for females the life settlements, and 350% for the viaticals regardless of gender. On a quarterly basis, the Trust compares actual mortalities to expected mortalities to refine its analysis. The exclusive use of the mortality multipliers has had the effect of extending anticipated longevity of the insureds in the PHT Portfolio. As a result, the amount of premiums that the Trust anticipates paying increased as did the anticipated length of time before the receipt of the death benefit. These factors were major contributors to the 2018 reduction in the estimated fair value of the PHT Portfolio. The Trust is continually assessing and revising the estimates of future maturities and premium obligations. The Trust will continue to monitor historical deaths on a quarterly basis. We will compare actual to expected mortalities to refine our mortality multipliers; such that they reasonably “validate” based on our analysis of trends. An in-depth review of the historical death experience to the mortality tables will be conducted on our third quarter results as an annual process to ensure the Trust information is current for the most accurate estimating process of valuing the investment portfolio. The servicing company is paid 2.65% of each maturity as compensation. All estimated cash flows of the Policies are net of such compensation. The monthly net cash flows with interest and survivorship were discounted to arrive at the PHT Portfolio’s estimated value as of December 31, 2019 and 2018. Future changes in the longevity estimates and estimated cash flows could have a material effect on the PHT Portfolio’s fair value, and the Trust’s financial condition and results of operations. Life Expectancy Sensitivity Analysis Life expectancy estimates are a significant input in the fair value determination. Future changes in the life expectancy estimates could have a material effect on the Portfolio’s fair value, which could have a material effect on its financial condition and results of operations. The tables below reflect the effect on the PHT Portfolio’s fair value if the actual life expectancy experienced is 5% less or 5% more than is currently estimated. If the life expectancy estimates increase by 5% or decrease by 5%, the change in estimated fair value of the life insurance policies would be as follows: As of December 31, 2019 Life Expectancy Months Adjustment Average Life Expectancy Fair Value Change in Fair Value -5% $ 188,372,343 $ 16,129,609 No change 4.8 years $ 172,242,734 — +5% $ 155,482,251 $ (16,760,483) As of December 31, 2018 Life Expectancy Months Adjustment Average Life Expectancy Fair Value Change in Fair Value -5% $ 202,547,381 $ 16,295,621 No change 5.2 years $ 186,251,760 — +5% $ 169,348,101 $ (16,903,659) Discount Rate The discount rate is another significant input in the fair value determination. The Trust’s estimate incorporates market factors, the size of the portfolio, and various policy specific quantitative and qualitative factors including known information about the underlying insurance policy, its economics, the insured and the insurer. The effect of changes in the weighted average discount rate on the death benefit and premiums used to estimate the PHT Portfolio’s fair value has been analyzed. If the weighted average discount rate increased or decreased by 2 percent and the other assumptions used to estimate fair value remained the same, the change in estimated fair value would be as follows: As of December 31, 2019 Rate Adjustment Fair Value Change in Fair Value +2% $ 163,300,406 $ (8,942,328) No change $ 172,242,734 — -2% $ 182,200,298 $ 9,957,564 As of December 31, 2018 Rate Adjustment Fair Value Change in Fair Value +2% $ 175,204,064 $ (11,047,696) No change $ 186,251,760 — -2% $ 198,679,523 $ 12,427,763 Future changes in the discount rates used by the Trust to value life insurance policies could have a material effect on the Trust's yield on life settlement transactions, which could have a material adverse effect on the Trust’s financial condition and results of operations. The Trust re-evaluates its discount rates at the end of every reporting period in order to estimate the discount rates that could reasonably be used by market participants in a transaction involving the Trust's life insurance policies. In doing so, the Trust engages third party consultants to corroborate its assessment, engages in discussions with other market participants and extrapolates the discount rate underlying actual sales of insurance policies. Credit Exposure to Insurance Companies The following table provides information about the life insurance issuer concentrations that exceed 10% of total death benefit or 10% of total fair value of the Trust's life insurance policies as of December 31, 2019: Carrier Percentage of Face Value Percentage of Fair Value Carrier Rating Transamerica Financial Life Insurance Company 9.6% 12.7% A+ The Lincoln National Life Insurance Company 10.4% 12.4% A+ December 31, 2018: Carrier Percentage of Face Value Percentage of Carrier Rating The Lincoln National Life Insurance 10.4% 13.4% A+ Transamerica Financial Life Insurance 9.6% 13.1% A+ Changes in Fair Value The following table provides a roll-forward of the fair value of life insurance policies for the twelve months ended December 31, 2019 and 2018: 2019 2018 Balance at January 1, $ 186,251,760 $ 272,140,787 Realized gain on matured policies 106,836,877 64,451,763 Unrealized gain (loss) on policies held (35,629,018) (126,667,533) Change in estimated fair value 71,207,859 (62,215,770) Matured policies, net of fees (129,965,627) (80,328,756) Premiums paid 44,748,742 56,655,499 Balance at December 31, $ 172,242,734 $ 186,251,760 Other Fair Value Considerations— All assets and liabilities except for the life insurance policies, which includes cash, maturities and premium receivable, notes payable and premium and maturity liability, are accounted for at their carrying value which approximates fair value. |