Note 6 - Fair Value Measurements | Note 6 - Fair Value Measurements The Trust carries its life insurance policies at fair value. Fair value is defined as an exit price, representing the amount that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date. Fair value measurements are classified based on the following fair value hierarchy: Level 1 — Valuation is based on unadjusted quoted prices in active markets for identical assets and liabilities that are accessible at the reporting date. Since valuations are based on quoted prices that are readily and regularly available in an active market, valuation of these products does not entail a significant degree of judgment. Level 2 — Valuation is determined from pricing inputs that are other than quoted prices in active markets that are either directly or indirectly observable as of the reporting date. Observable inputs include quoted prices for similar assets or liabilities in active markets, quoted prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in markets that are not active, and interest rates and yield curves that are observable at commonly quoted intervals. Level 3 — Valuation is based on inputs that are both significant to the fair value measurement and unobservable. Level 3 inputs include situations where there is little, if any, market activity for the financial instrument. The inputs into the determination of fair value generally require significant management judgment or estimation. The balances of the Trust's assets measured at fair value on a recurring basis as of December 31, 2020 and 2019, are as follows: As of December 31, 2020 As of December 31, 2019 Assets: Investments in Life Insurance Policies Level 1 $ — $ — Level 2 $ — $ — Level 3 $ 159,179,912 $ 172,242,734 Total Fair Value $ 159,179,912 $ 172,242,734 Quantitative Information about Level 3 Fair Value Measurements Life insurance policies December 31, 2020 December 31, 2019 Fair Value $ 159,179,912 $ 172,242,734 Face Value $ 997,429,412 $ 1,129,545,328 Valuation Techniques Discounted cash flow Discounted cash flow Unobservable Inputs Discount rate, Mortality assumptions Discount rate, Mortality assumptions Weighted average discount rates: Life Settlements 26.7% 24.7% Viaticals 27.3% 25.7% Mortality assumptions - 2015 VBT mortality multipliers: Life settlements 90% - 100% 90% - 110% Viaticals 350% 350% In assessing and determining the PHT Portfolio’s valuation, the Position Holder Trust has retained Lewis & Ellis, Inc. as its principal actuaries. The following is a summary of the methodology used to estimate the PHT Portfolio’s fair value measured on a recurring basis and within the above fair value hierarchy. The overall methodology did not change during the current or prior year. The PHT Portfolio’s value was estimated using an actuarially based approach incorporating net cash flows and life expectancies as determined by a default mortality multiplier based on the 2015 Valuation Basic Table produced by the U.S. Society of Actuaries ("VBT") as opposed to specific life expectancies of insureds as the mortality multipliers from the VBT provide more accurate longevity projections across the portfolio. A default mortality multiplier for each insured was used to project the PHT Portfolio’s present value of net cash flows (death benefits less premium payments). As of December 31, 2020, the default mortality multipliers used are 100% for the life settlement males, 90% for the life settlement females, and 350% for the viaticals regardless of gender. As of December 31, 2019, the default mortality multipliers used are 110% for the life settlement males, 90% for the life settlement females, and 350% for the viaticals regardless of gender. On a quarterly basis, the Trust compares actual mortalities to expected mortalities to refine its analysis. The Trust compares actual to expected mortalities to evaluate and refine the mortality multipliers; such that they reasonably “validate” based on the Trust’s analysis of trends. In first quarter of 2020, the Trust transitioned from the Select tables to the Ultimate tables from the VBT, and the Trust appropriately changed the mortality multipliers to best fit experience. Changing the PHT Portfolio’s use to the 2015 VBT Ultimate table rather than applying the 2015 VBT Select table provides a flatter pattern amongst mortality claims and better aligns to the characteristics of lives in the Trust's portfolio. The overall impact to the PHT's Portfolio from the change from the 2015 VBT Select table to the 2015 VBT Ultimate table was a decrease in fair value of approximately $5.0 million. In second quarter of 2020, the Trust changed its methodology for accounting for the servicing fee in valuing the Trust's portfolio. Historically, the Trust reduced its expected future cash flow from maturities to account for the servicing fees which were expected to be paid upon maturity of a policy. Under the new model the Trust no longer decreases the future cash flow for the expected servicing fee, instead the Trust incorporates the fee structure through the discount rate. This change was made (i) to bring Trust's practices more in line with industry norms, and (ii) due to the change in servicer, which requires the Trust to now pay the fees periodically, rather than being deferred and paid as a percentage of proceeds upon policy maturity. This change increased the discount rate for the Trust's portfolio by 2%, however it did not have a significant impact to the value of the Trust's portfolio. The Trust continually evaluates and updates its forecasts of future premium obligations for individual policies. The Trust considers these potential changes to estimated future cash flows in its consideration of the discount rate. The monthly net cash flows with interest and survivorship were discounted to arrive at the PHT Portfolio’s estimated value as of December 31, 2020 and December 31, 2019. Future changes in the longevity estimates and estimated cash flows could have a material effect on the PHT Portfolio’s fair value, and the Trust’s financial condition and results of operations. Life Expectancy Sensitivity Analysis Life expectancy estimates are a significant input in the fair value determination. Future changes in the life expectancy estimates could have a material effect on the Portfolio’s fair value, which could have a material effect on its financial condition and results of operations. The tables below reflect the effect on the PHT Portfolio’s fair value if the actual life expectancy experienced is 5% less or 5% more than is currently estimated. If the life expectancy estimates increase by 5% or decrease by 5%, the change in estimated fair value of the life insurance policies would be as follows: As of December 31, 2020, Life Expectancy Months Adjustment Average Life Expectancy Fair Value Change in Fair Value -5% $ 173,516,265 $ 14,336,353 No change 4.7 years $ 159,179,912 — +5% $ 144,277,667 $ (14,902,245) As of December 31, 2019, Life Expectancy Months Adjustment Average Life Expectancy Fair Value Change in Fair Value -5% $ 188,372,343 $ 16,129,609 No change 4.8 years $ 172,242,734 — +5% $ 155,482,251 $ (16,760,483) Discount Rate The discount rate is another significant input in the fair value determination. The Trust’s estimate incorporates market factors, the size of the portfolio, and various policy specific quantitative and qualitative factors including known information about the underlying insurance policy, its economics, the insured and the insurer. The effect of changes in the weighted average discount rate on the death benefit and premiums used to estimate the PHT Portfolio’s fair value has been analyzed. If the weighted average discount rate increased or decreased by 2 percent and the other assumptions used to estimate fair value remained the same, the change in estimated fair value would be as follows: As of December 31, 2020, Rate Adjustment Fair Value Change in Fair Value +2% $ 151,012,859 $ (8,167,053) No change $ 159,179,912 — -2% $ 168,255,950 $ 9,076,038 As of December 31, 2019, Rate Adjustment Fair Value Change in Fair Value +2% $ 163,300,406 $ (8,942,328) No change $ 172,242,734 — -2% $ 182,200,298 $ 9,957,564 Future changes in the discount rates used by the Trust to value life insurance policies could have a material effect on the fair value of the Portfolio, which could have a material adverse effect on the Trust’s financial condition and results of operations. The Trust re-evaluates its discount rates at the end of every reporting period in order to estimate the discount rates that could reasonably be used by market participants in a transaction involving the Trust's life insurance policies. In doing so, the Trust engages third party consultants to corroborate its assessment, engages in discussions with other market participants and extrapolates the discount rate underlying actual sales of insurance policies. Credit Exposure to Insurance Companies The following table provides information about the life insurance issuer concentrations that exceed 10% of total death benefit or 10% of total fair value of the Trust's life insurance policies as of December 31, 2020: Carrier Percentage of Face Value Percentage of Fair Value Carrier Rating Transamerica Financial Life Insurance Company 10.2% 13.5% A The Lincoln National Life Insurance Company 10.0% 11.5% A+ The following table provides information about the life insurance issuer concentrations that exceed 10% of total death benefit or 10% of total fair value of the Trust's life insurance policies as of December 31, 2019: Carrier Percentage of Face Value Percentage of Fair Value Carrier Rating Transamerica Financial Life Insurance Company 9.6% 12.7% A+ The Lincoln National Life Insurance Company 10.4% 12.4% A+ Changes in Fair Value The following table provides a roll-forward of the fair value of life insurance policies for the years ended December 31, 2020 and 2019: 2020 2019 Balance at January 1, $ 172,242,734 $ 186,251,760 Realized gain on matured policies 116,516,353 106,836,877 Unrealized loss on policies held (48,860,066 ) (35,629,018 ) Change in estimated fair value 67,656,287 71,207,859 Matured policies, net of fees (143,525,300 ) (129,965,627 ) Premiums paid 62,806,191 44,748,742 Balance at December 31, $ 159,179,912 $ 172,242,734 Other Fair Value Considerations— All assets and liabilities except for the life insurance policies, which includes cash, maturities and premium receivable, notes payable and premium and maturity liability, are accounted for at their carrying value which approximates fair value. |