Kinetik - 2022 Guidance, February 24, 2022
On the capital expenditure side, obviously people would like to know how this is broken down. While $125 million to $150 million was the range, we’ve given you on the far right the building blocks. There’s $15 million of onetime. These are things from an ESG standpoint, FLIR cameras and other emissions control and reduction equipment that we think are fundamental and important. They are things, however, that cost, and once they’re done, they are done.
Integration Capex is a pull forward relative to what we expected, $55 million of $100 million of total integration capital will be spent for this year, $15 million of maintenance and $40 million to $65 million of what we would consider growth.
We have within the—when we mentioned $50 million to $80 million, which I believe was the range that we’ve used not only on the October conference call, but with analysts and investors ever since, take the growth, add the maintenance, that’s what you’re looking at on a consistent basis year in, year out.
Our system is so developed, and with most of our customers now coming to us with high pressure, the connection costs, there’s no compression, very little mechanical equipment, no real liquids handling required. We can add incremental—significant incremental volumes at a very small cost.
On the commodity side, which is another question we frequently get, we wanted to explain the drivers between crude, natural gas and NGLs. We have very limited commodity exposure in large part because 85% of that gross profit that we have for this year is from fee-based sources. There’s only 15% of our gross profit is exposed to commodity prices, 15%. Then when you think about the relevant exposure by hydrocarbon, condensate, natural gasoline represents 30%; residues, 35%; NGL is 35%. The bottom left-hand table really shows you what you need to know.
What is embedded in our forecast? Our 2022 guidance has as its imports a weighted average price of $84.88 for crude. Natural gas was $3.95 and NGLs $36.81. We all know where crude is this morning.
Plus or minus $10 a barrel represents $8 million of difference, plus/minus, to our Adjusted EBITDA guidance. It’s 1%. If you believe that crude should, in fact, settle at some point, at $75, and that’s the prevailing price, over $70, then you would adjust that by $15 and you’d have a $12 million impact for 2022 if you did it immediately.
Natural gas, $0.50 MMBtu differential creates $7 million of difference. It’s about 1%. It’s almost the same as that $10 a barrel, particularly given what is going on with—as a result of the event world events last night, $3.95 from a gas price, particularly given the significance, and I think going forward, greater dependence on the Europeans as it relates to the U.S. supporting them with natural—with LNG. We think natural gas, $3.95, is not in fact particularly aggressive.
NGLs at $36.81 is up, composite barrel price, plus/minus $4 on that. That 10% represents $4 million. You can see you don’t have significant commodity fluctuations embedded in our overall guidance. You can calibrate how you see fit, but it makes—this is a very handy scorecard and reference sheet to use.
Let’s talk about our synergies and then we’ll finish. We expect $50-plus million of annual run-rate EBITDA synergies. On the right hand side, you can see our overall pie chart. In our 2022 guide, you get Apache DXL for two months. You’ve got the cost synergies of just over $20 million. They are true cost synergies that happen almost immediately.
Integration synergies will start really with 2023 onwards, and that will be, we believe, well in excess of $30 million. We have a track record as a Management team of harvesting and realizing synergies and synergy estimates—and actual synergies well above estimates and targets.
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