Fair Value Measurements | Note 6 - Fair Value Measurements The Trust carries its life insurance policies at fair value. Fair value is defined as an exit price, representing the amount that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date. Fair value measurements are classified based on the following fair value hierarchy: Level 1 - Valuation is based on unadjusted quoted prices in active markets for identical assets and liabilities that are accessible at the reporting date. Since valuations are based on quoted prices that are readily and regularly available in an active market, valuation of these products does not entail a significant degree of judgment. Level 2 - Valuation is determined from pricing inputs that are other than quoted prices in active markets that are either directly or indirectly observable as of the reporting date. Observable inputs include quoted prices for similar assets or liabilities in active markets, quoted prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in markets that are not active, and interest rates and yield curves that are observable at commonly quoted intervals. Level 3 - Valuation is based on inputs that are both significant to the fair value measurement and unobservable. Level 3 inputs include situations where there is little, if any, market activity for the financial instrument. The inputs into the determination of fair value generally require significant management judgment or estimation. The balances of the Trust's assets measured at fair value on a recurring basis as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, are as follows: As of September 30, 2017: Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Total Fair Value Assets: Investment in life insurance policies $ — $ — $ 286,155,720 $ 286,155,720 $ — $ — $ 286,155,720 $ 286,155,720 As of December 31, 2016: Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Total Fair Value Assets: Investment in life insurance policies $ — $ — $ 263,579,040 $ 263,579,040 $ — $ — $ 263,579,040 $ 263,579,040 Quantitative Information about Level 3 Fair Value Measurements Fair Value at 9/30/2017 Face value at 9/30/2017 Valuation Technique(s) Unobservable Inputs Range (Weighted Average) Life insurance policies $ 286,155,720 $ 1,284,228,944 Discounted cash flow Discount rate 25.2%-31.7 % Life expectancy evaluation 3.6 years Fair Value at 12/31/16 Face value at 12/31/16 Valuation Technique(s) Unobservable Inputs Range (Weighted Average) Life insurance policies $ 263,579,040 $ 1,289,998,014 Discounted cash flow Discount rate 24.7%-31.7 % Fair Value at 12/31/16 Face value at 12/31/16 Valuation Technique(s) Unobservable Inputs Range (Weighted Average) Life expectancy evaluation 4.0 years Following is a description of the methodologies used to estimate the assets’ fair value measured on a recurring basis and within the above fair value hierarchy. The Portfolio was valued using a probabilistic approach, which is actuarially based. This approach fits the Portfolio’s cash flows (premium payments and death benefits) to a monthly mortality scale as generated by each insured’s specific life expectancy. This mortality scale is actuarially rolled forward from the life expectancy underwriting date to the valuation date. This mathematical approach is substantially the same as actuaries customarily use in the pricing of life insurance and annuities. The Trust discounted the monthly cash flows with interest and survivorship back to the valuation date of as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, to arrive at the Portfolio’s estimated value. The valuations presented here are net of a 2.65% servicing fee payable under the Plan. The Trust utilized each Policy’s “optimized” premium. The Trust relied on life expectancy values provided by its servicing company that were in turn provided to it from qualified industry experts. If a particular Policy did not have a life expectancy, the Trust used the Society of Actuaries’ 2015 Valuation Basic Tables, smoker distinct mortality tables developed by the U.S. Society of Actuaries (the “2015 VBT”) to obtain the average probability of death for similarly categorized persons and applied mortality multipliers by type/gender, to arrive at an estimated life expectancy for the insured. The mortality multipliers used are: 100% for the life settlement males, 100% for the life settlement females and 350% for the viaticals regardless of gender. The 2015 VBT are created based on the expected rates of death among different groups categorized by factors such as age and gender. If the insured dies earlier than expected, the return will be higher than if the insured dies when expected or later than expected. The Trust’s estimates allow for the possibility that if the insured dies earlier than expected, the premiums needed to keep the policy in force will not have to be paid. Conversely, the calculation also considers the possibility that if the insured lives longer than expected, more premium payments will be necessary. Life expectancy estimates are a significant input in the fair value determination. Future changes in the life expectancy estimates could have a material effect on the Portfolio’s fair value, which could have a material effect on its financial condition and results of operations. Life expectancy estimates for insureds over the age of 90 years are less reliable than estimates for younger persons, due to the relative lack of statistical information as to the health and mortality expectations for those over the age of 90 years. Accordingly, there is a correspondingly lower statistical basis for relying on life expectancy estimates based on medical underwriting for insureds in that age group. In addition, the average probability of death calculated in the 2015 VBT for those 90 years or older has less statistical reliability than the average probability of death calculations for younger persons. Nevertheless, the majority of industry participants continue to rely on medical underwriting and the 2015 VBT for all age ranges, including 90 and over. As the average age of the insureds for the life settlements in the Portfolio is 89 years, the Trust will continue to evaluate its ongoing reliance on the 2015 VBT and life expectancies based on medical underwriting and make adjustments to its underlying assumptions as actuarial knowledge regarding this population advances. Life expectancy sensitivity analysis The table below reflects the effect on the PHT Portfolio’s fair value if the actual life expectancy experienced is 5% less or 5% more than is currently estimated. If the life expectancy estimate increases by 5% or decreases by 5%, the change in estimated fair value of the life insurance policies as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016 would be as follows: As of September 30, 2017 Average life expectancy Value Change in Value - 5% $ 301,220,686 $ 15,064,966 No change 3.6 years $ 286,155,720 $ — + 5% $ 271,624,213 $ (14,531,507 ) As of December 31, 2016 Average life expectancy Value Change in Value - 5% $ 277,276,497 $ 13,697,457 No change 4.0 years $ 263,579,040 $ — + 5% $ 249,069,410 $ (14,509,630 ) Discount rate The discount rate is another significant input in the fair value determination. The Trust’s estimate incorporates market factors, the size of the portfolio, and various policy specific quantitative and qualitative factors including known information about the underlying insurance policy, its economics, the insured and the insurer. The effect of changes in the weighted average discount rate on the death benefit and premiums used to estimate the PHT Portfolio’s fair value has been analyzed. If the weighted average discount rate increased or decreased by 2 percentage points and the other assumptions used to estimate fair value remained the same, the change in estimated fair value as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016 would be as follows: As of September 30, 2017 Value Change in Value +2% $ 273,359,032 $ (12,796,688 ) No change $ 286,155,720 $ — -2% $ 300,310,106 $ 14,154,386 As of December 31, 2016 Value Change in Value +2% $ 250,218,915 $ (13,360,125 ) No change $ 263,579,040 $ — -2% $ 278,442,322 $ 14,863,282 Future changes in the discount rates used by the Trust to value life insurance policies could have a material effect on the Trust's yield on life settlement transactions, which could have a material adverse effect on the Trust’s financial condition and results of operations. The Trust re-evaluates its discount rates at the end of every reporting period in order to estimate the discount rates that could reasonably be used by market participants in a transaction involving the Trust's life insurance policies. In doing so, the Trust engages third party consultants to corroborate its assessment, engages in discussions with other market participants and extrapolates the discount rate underlying actual sales of insurance policies. Credit Exposure to Insurance Companies The following table provides information about the life insurance issuer concentrations that exceed 10% of total death benefit or 10% of total fair value of the Trust's life insurance policies as of September 30, 2017: Carrier Percentage of Face Value Percentage of Fair Value Carrier Rating The Lincoln National Life Insurance 11.3 % 14.1 % A + John Hancock Life Insurance (USA) 7.5 % 11.4 % A + Transamerica Financial Life Insurance 9.1 % 11.1 % A + Changes in Fair Value The following table provides a roll-forward in the changes in fair value for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2017, for the Trust’s life insurance policies: Three months ended (unaudited) Nine months ended (unaudited) Beginning balance $ 273,147,684 $ 263,579,040 Change in fair value 26,170,479 48,847,913 Matured policies, net of fees (19,344,711 ) (50,870,826 ) Premiums paid 6,182,269 24,599,593 Ending balance $ 286,155,720 $ 286,155,720 Changes in fair value included in earnings for the period relating to assets held at September 30, 2017 $ 9,480,259 $ 5,973,378 |