Note 6 - Fair Value Measurements | Note 6 - Fair Value Measurements The Trust carries its life insurance policies at fair value. Fair value is defined as an exit price, representing the amount that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date. Fair value measurements are classified based on the following fair value hierarchy: Level 1 - Valuation is based on unadjusted quoted prices in active markets for identical assets and liabilities that are accessible at the reporting date. Since valuations are based on quoted prices that are readily and regularly available in an active market, valuation of these products does not entail a significant degree of judgment. Level 2 - Valuation is determined from pricing inputs that are other than quoted prices in active markets that are either directly or indirectly observable as of the reporting date. Observable inputs include quoted prices for similar assets or liabilities in active markets, quoted prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in markets that are not active, and interest rates and yield curves that are observable at commonly quoted intervals. Level 3 - Valuation is based on inputs that are both significant to the fair value measurement and unobservable. Level 3 inputs include situations where there is little, if any, market activity for the financial instrument. The inputs into the determination of fair value generally require significant management judgment or estimation. The balances of the Trust's assets measured at fair value on a recurring basis as of June 30, 2021 and December 31, 2020, are as follows: As of June 30, 2021 As of December 31, 2020 Assets: Investments in Life Insurance Policies Level 1 $ — $ — Level 2 $ — $ — Level 3 $ 197,372,067 $ 159,179,912 Total Fair Value $ 197,372,067 $ 159,179,912 Quantitative Information about Level 3 Fair Value Measurements Life insurance policies June 30, 2021 December 31, 2020 Fair Value $ 197,372,067 $ 159,179,912 Face Value $ 953,046,400 $ 997,429,412 Valuation Techniques Discounted cash flow Discounted cash flow Unobservable Inputs Discount rate, Mortality assumptions Discount rate, Mortality assumptions Weighted average discount rates Life Settlements 15.0% 26.7% Viaticals 20.0% 27.3% Mortality assumptions - 2015 VBT mortality multipliers: Life Settlements 85% - 90% 90% - 100% Viaticals 350% 350% In assessing and determining the PHT Portfolio’s valuation, the Position Holder Trust retained Lewis & Ellis, Inc. as its principal actuaries. The following is a summary of the methodology used to estimate the assets’ fair value measured on a recurring basis and within the above fair value hierarchy. The overall methodology did not change during the current or prior year. The PHT Portfolio’s value was estimated using an actuarially based approach incorporating net cash flows and life expectancies as determined by a default mortality multiplier based on the 2015 Valuation Basic Table produced by the U.S. Society of Actuaries ("VBT") as opposed to specific life expectancies of insureds as the mortality multipliers from the VBT Ultimate table provide more accurate longevity projections across the portfolio. A default mortality multiplier for each insured was used to project the PHT Portfolio’s present value of net cash flows (death benefits less premium payments and servicing company compensation). As of June 30, 2021, the default mortality multipliers used are 90% for the life settlement males, 85% for the life settlement females, and 350% for the viaticals regardless of gender. As of December 31, 2020, the default mortality multipliers used are 100% for the life settlement males, 90% for the life settlement females, and 350% for the viaticals regardless of gender. On a quarterly basis, the Trust compares actual mortalities to expected mortalities to refine its analysis. The Trust continually evaluates and updates its forecasts of future premium obligations for individual policies. The Trust considers these potential changes to estimated future cash flows in its consideration of the discount rate. The Trust also continues to monitor historical deaths on a quarterly basis. We will compare actual to expected mortalities to refine our mortality multipliers; such that they reasonably “validate” based on our analysis of trends. The monthly net cash flows with interest and survivorship were discounted to arrive at the PHT Portfolio’s estimated value as of June 30, 2021 and December 31, 2020. Future changes in the longevity estimates and estimated cash flows could have a material effect on the PHT Portfolio’s fair value, and the Trust’s financial condition and results of operations. Life expectancy sensitivity analysis The table below reflects the effect on the PHT Portfolio’s fair value if the actual life expectancy experienced is 5% less or 5% more than is currently estimated. If the life expectancy estimate increases by 5% or decreases by 5%, the change in estimated fair value of the life insurance policies as of June 30, 2021 and December 31, 2020 would be as follows: As of June 30, 2021 As of Life Expectancy Months Adjustment Weighted Average Life Expectancy Fair Value Change in Fair Value -5% $ 213,065,056 $ 15,692,989 No change 5.1 years $ 197,372,067 — +5% $ 180,936,824 $ (16,435,243 ) As of December 31, 2020 As of Life Expectancy Months Adjustment Weighted Average Life Expectancy Fair Value Change in Fair Value -5% $ 173,516,265 $ 14,336,353 No change 4.7 years $ 159,179,912 — +5% $ 144,277,667 $ (14,902,245 ) Cost of Insurance Over the past several years, various insurers have increased the cost of insurance tables used in certain of their policies. The PHT Portfolio has not been exempt from these increases. Because the cost of insurance affects the premiums paid, an increase in the cost of insurance negatively impacts the affected policies’ valuation. The fair value estimates take into account all known increases in the cost of insurance. Discount rate The discount rate is another significant input in the fair value determination. The Trust’s estimate incorporates market factors, the size of the portfolio, servicing cost and various policy specific quantitative and qualitative factors including known information about the underlying insurance policy, its economics, the insured and the insurer. The effect of changes in the weighted average discount rate on the death benefit and premiums used to estimate the PHT Portfolio’s fair value has been analyzed. If the weighted average discount rate increased or decreased by 2 percentage points and the other assumptions used to estimate fair value remained the same, the change in estimated fair value as of June 30, 2021 and December 31, 2020 would be as follows: As of June 30, 2021 Rate Adjustment Fair Value Change in Fair Value +2% $ 183,222,542 $ (14,149,525 ) No change $ 197,372,067 — -2% $ 213,655,628 $ 16,283,561 As of December 31, 2020 Rate Adjustment Fair Value Change in Fair Value +2% $ 151,012,859 $ (8,167,053 ) No change $ 159,179,912 — -2% $ 168,255,950 $ 9,076,038 Future changes in the discount rates used by the Trust to value life insurance policies could have a material effect on the Trust's fair value analysis, which could have a material adverse effect on the Trust’s financial condition and results of operations. The Trust re-evaluates its discount rates at the end of every reporting period in order to estimate the discount rates that could reasonably be used by market participants in a transaction involving the Trust's life insurance policies. In doing so, the Trust engages third party consultants to corroborate its assessment, engages in discussions with other market participants and extrapolates the discount rate underlying actual sales of insurance policies. Starting in the first quarter of 2021, the Trust’s actuarial firm, Lewis and Ellis, modified the discount rate used to value the portfolio and applied a consistent discount rate in the second quarter of 2021. This change had a material impact on the fair value of the Trust’s portfolio. These changes were made as a result of i) The full on-boarding by NorthStar of the Trust’s portfolio, which produced more clarity into premium streams, the Trust’s ability to track insureds and thus deaths. ii) The majority of premium streams have been fully optimized. This not only improves clarity into the Trust’s payment obligations, it also resulted in cost savings for the Trust. iii) The importance of having specific LEs for the senior life settlement portion of the portfolio has been diminished by the fact that the average age of the insureds has now surpassed the age of 90, and iv) the Trust has now exited bankruptcy which increases the marketability of the Trust’s portfolio. Credit Exposure to Insurance Companies The following table provides information about the life insurance issuer concentrations that exceed 10% of total death benefit or 10% of total fair value of the Trust's life insurance policies as of June 30, 2021: Carrier Percentage of Face Value Percentage of Fair Value Carrier Rating Transamerica Financial Life Insurance 10.5 % 14.0 % A+ The Lincoln National Life Insurance 8.9 % 10.2 % A+ The following table provides information about the life insurance issuer concentrations that exceed 10% of total death benefit or 10% of total fair value of the Trust's life insurance policies as of December 31, 2020: Carrier Percentage of Face Value Percentage of Fair Value Carrier Rating Transamerica Financial Life Insurance 10.2 % 13.5 % A The Lincoln National Life Insurance 10.0 % 11.5 % A+ Changes in Fair Value The following table provides a roll-forward of the fair value of life insurance policies for the three months ended June 30, 2021 and 2020: 2021 2020 Balance at April 1, $ 200,436,921 $ 178,822,344 Realized gain on matured policies 20,959,867 61,223,914 Unrealized loss on assets held (11,922,241 ) (13,980,177 ) Change in estimated fair value 9,037,626 47,243,737 Matured policies, net of fees (28,146,887 ) (74,545,261 ) Premiums paid 16,044,407 15,367,195 Balance at June 30, $ 197,372,067 $ 166,888,015 The following table provides a roll-forward of the fair value of life insurance policies for the six months ended June 30, 2021 and 2020: 2021 2020 Balance at January 1, $ 159,179,912 $ 172,242,734 Realized gain on matured policies 44,781,048 79,469,615 Unrealized gain (loss) on assets held 18,359,434 (19,599,558 ) Change in estimated fair value 63,140,482 59,870,057 Matured policies, net of fees (55,955,834 ) (96,118,957 ) Premiums paid 31,007,507 30,894,181 Balance at June 30, $ 197,372,067 $ 166,888,015 Other Fair Value Considerations |