in business tax revenue (an increase of $1.4 billion, or 17.3%, from fiscal year 2022 projections). Against these revenues, the 2022-23 Governor’s Budget calls for $95.6 billion in expenditures, an annual increase of $4.9 billion, or 5.4%.
The State has experienced a number of natural disasters in recent years, for which the State has received, and anticipates further receipt of, Federal disaster aid. However, there can be no assurance that anticipated Federal disaster aid will be provided to the State, or that such Federal disaster aid, if provided, will be for the full amount estimated or on the timeline expected.
The State’s economy continues to face significant risks, including, but not limited to, the effects of: national and international events; climate change, extreme weather events and other natural disasters; pandemics; ongoing financial instability in the Euro Zone and eastern Europe; major terrorist events; hostilities or war; social unrest; changes in international trade policies, consumer confidence, oil supplies and oil prices; cyber security attacks; Federal statutory and regulatory changes concerning financial sector activities; changes concerning financial sector bonus payouts; and shifts in monetary policy affecting interest rates and the financial markets.
Following a substantial increase in unemployment throughout New York in 2020, the State projects total nonfarm employment growth of 7.2% for 2022. The State projects that wages will increase by 12.1% in 2022, resulting in total personal income growth of 1.5% for the year. The State’s unemployment rate reached its peak of 16.2% in April 2020 but had fallen to 5.3% as of January 2022. The State’s unemployment rate was above the national average of 4.0% in January 2022.
New York City is the largest city in the U.S., and has a complex, varied and aging infrastructure. The City has more school buildings, firehouses, health facilities, community colleges, roads and bridges, libraries, and police precincts than any other city in the country. Notably, New York City was the center of New York’s initial COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, which had an adverse impact on the City’s financial health. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the unemployment rate in the City has increased from 4.1% in March 2020 to 20.3% in June 2020, and ended 2020 at 12.3%.
New York City’s general debt limit, as provided in the New York State Constitution, is 10 percent of the five-year rolling average of the full value of taxable City real property. As of June 30, 2021, the City’s total debt-incurring power under the general debt limit was approximately $123.02 billion, and the net debt-incurring power was approximately $47.7 billion. The City’s general obligation debt outstanding was approximately $38.6 billion as of June 30, 2021. After including contract and other liability and adjusting for appropriations, the City’s indebtedness that is counted toward the debt limit totaled approximately $81.8 billion as of June 30, 2021.
In addition to general obligation bonds, the City maintains several additional credits, including bonds issued by the New York City Transitional Finance Authority (“NYCTFA”) and Tobacco Settlement Asset Securitization Corporation (“TSASC”). At the end of fiscal year 2021, NYCTFA debt backed by personal income tax revenues accounted for approximately $49.0 billion of debt. In July 2009, the State Legislature granted NYCTFA the authority to issue additional debt up to $13.5 for general capital purposes. The City exhausted the $13.5 billion bonding limit in fiscal year 2007. In July 2009, the State Legislature authorized TFA to issue debt beyond the $13.5 billion limit. However, this additional borrowing is subject to the City’s general debt limit. Thus, additional borrowing above the $13.5 billion limit is secured by personal income tax revenues and counted under the City’s general debt limit. In addition to this capacity, the NYCTFA is authorized to issue up to $9.4 billion of Building Aid Revenue Bonds (BARBs) for education purposes. As of June 30, 2021, excluding amortization, approximately $8.4 billion of these bonds have been issued. Debt service for these bonds is supported by building aid payments the City receives from the State. At the end of fiscal year 2021, TSASC debt totaled approximately $1.0 billion.
As of March 30, 2022, New York State’s general obligation bonds are rated AA+, Aa2, and AA+ by S&P, Moody’s and Fitch, respectively. As of March 30, 2022, New York City’s general obligation debt was rated AA, Aa2, and AA- by S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch, respectively. Such ratings reflect only the view of the originating rating agencies, from which an explanation of the significance of such ratings may be obtained. There is no assurance that a particular rating will continue for any given period of time or that any such rating will not be revised downward or withdrawn entirely if, in the judgment of the agency originally establishing the rating, circumstances so warrant. A downward revision or withdrawal of such ratings, or either of them, may have an effect on the market price of the State municipal obligations in which the Fund invests.