Business Outlook
Fourth quarter 2020 guidance
Based on information available to us as of November 5, 2020, we are issuing the following guidance for the fourth quarter of 2020:
| • | Dayforce recurring services revenue of $128 million to $129 million, or an increase of approximately 12% to 13% on both a GAAP and constant currency basis. Excluding float revenue, Dayforce recurring services revenue is expected to grow approximately 18% to 19% on both a GAAP and constant currency basis. |
| • | Dayforce revenue of $167 million to $169 million, or an increase of approximately 5% to 6% on both a GAAP and constant currency basis. Excluding float revenue, Dayforce revenue is expected to grow approximately 9% to 10% on both a GAAP and constant currency basis. |
| • | Cloud revenue of $189 million to $192 million, or an increase of approximately 3% to 4% on both a GAAP and constant currency basis. Excluding float revenue, Cloud revenue is expected to grow approximately 6% to 8% on both a GAAP and constant currency basis. |
| • | Total revenue of $215 million to $219 million, or a decline of approximately 3% to 1% on both a GAAP and constant currency basis. Excluding float revenue, total revenue is expected to grow approximately 1% to 3% on both a GAAP and constant currency basis. |
| • | Float revenue of approximately $6 million within Dayforce revenue, $8 million within Cloud revenue, and $9 million within total revenue. |
| • | Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million to $34 million. |
We have not reconciled the Adjusted EBITDA range for the third quarter of 2020 to the directly comparable GAAP financial measure because applicable information for the future period, on which this
reconciliation would be based, is not readily available due to uncertainty regarding, and the potential variability of, depreciation and amortization, share-based compensation expense and related employer taxes, changes in foreign currency exchange rates, and other items.
First quarter 2021 outlook
We expect Dayforce recurring services revenue growth, excluding float revenue and on a constant currency basis, to be above 19% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the first quarter of 2020, including an anticipated $1 million to $2 million of improvement from increased customer employment levels.
Dayforce
We invoice Dayforce recurring services revenue on a per-employee, per-month (“PEPM”) basis, generally one month in advance, based on the total of active and inactive employees in the system as measured on the 15th of the previous month. The fact that furloughed employees are included in the inactive employee counts somewhat mitigates the impact of lower employment levels on Dayforce revenues.
The proportion of inactive Dayforce employees to total Dayforce employees has improved to approximately 4% of total as of the end of October, representing an improvement from approximately 11% at the peak of the pandemic in April.
We previously disclosed that we had observed an approximate 4% decline in employment levels through July.
From August through October, we saw a 1% improvement in employment levels, and the cumulative decline is approximately 3% as of the end of October.
In our fourth quarter 2020 guidance, we have assumed employment levels will gradually improve. Even with this improvement, we still estimate the lowered employment levels will have an approximate