Although we used this transaction and the implied price per data set in our third analysis involving terminal value of a business model that uses health data, we do not believe it is useful as an indicator of the value of an average (i.e., self-selected) member’s GT file. First, the disclosed transaction price was between $10,000,000 and $60,000,000 depending on milestones that were not publicly available, and the imputed transaction price per available record could therefore range from $0.11 to $0.65. Second, the population waspre-identified as having Parkinson’s disease (or a close relative of a person with Parkinson’s disease). We or anyone else with only self-selected participants would need a database of over 92 million unique individuals to obtain a sample size of 12,000 individuals with Parkinson’s disease.4 Third, even if we somehow had a sufficient population of Parkinson’s disease members, we would have only the data those members voluntarily contributed. By contrast, 23andMe stores biobank samples their customers submitted for testing, and those samples are available to 23andMe for further sequencing and analysis at any time. Accordingly, the implied range of imputed transaction price per available record does not tie to the more limited genomic information in a GT file. The cost of fully sequencing the biobank samples for the 12,000 individuals (or 15,000, including family members) would be substantial (perhaps $20,000,000 or more), and may have been taken into account in either or both the consideration to be paid or the milestones. Finally, and most importantly, the disclosed purpose of the partnership was to identify participants for clinical trials. Our members will not be consenting to participate in clinical trials as part of their consideration for the shares, and accordingly, the milestone-based pricing of a transaction with the stated purpose of producing participants for clinical trials has limited relevance to the value of our members’ GT files.5 Put another way, we are not receiving from our members the primary value that Genentech appears to have been seeking in the Genentech/23andMe transaction, and which value was presumably incorporated into both the initial price, the maximum price and the milestones.
Roche/Flatiron transaction
The Roche Group (Roche) and Flatiron Health, Inc. (Flatiron Health) announced in February 2018 that Roche would acquire all shares of Flatiron Health for $1.9 billion. The transaction completed in April 2018. Flatiron Health is a healthcare technology and services company focused on accelerating cancer research and improving patient care. As of the announcement date, Flatiron Health disclosed partnerships with over 265 community cancer clinics, six major academic research centers and 14 out of the top 15 therapeutic oncology companies. Flatiron Health’s website claims 2,000,000 active patient records. We presumed these records to be of cancer patients given Flatiron Health’s mission and business.
Cancer has a 4.4% incidence in a general population. For purposes of the third analysis described above, we imputed a cost per million random individual records that would equate to the $950 cost per identified cancer patient record implied by the $1.9 billion purchase price over 2,000,000 available patient records, resulting in an imputed maximum transaction price over the available data of $42.25 per available individual data set. Although we used this transaction and the implied price per data set in third analysis involving discounted cash flow for a business model that uses health data, we do not believe it is useful as an indicator of the value of our member’s GT file.
Flatiron Health was purchased as an operating business and post-transaction is maintained as a separate legal entity. Roche’s disclosed rationale for the purchase was to “provide the technology and data analytics infrastructure needed not only for Roche, but for oncology research and development efforts across the entire industry.” In other words, this a purchase of a business and not a purchase of data, and the ongoing business purchased will provide Roche a flow of additional phenotypic data contributions for the existing patient base and continual access to new patient data. We found no indication that the purchase price related to the value of an individual GT file, or even that individual GT files are normally included in the available patient data. Accordingly, we do not believe that the implied price per available data record bears any relationship to the market value of an individual GT file, except to the extent used in the company terminal value analysis for our third methodology described above.
Pfizer/23andMe
Pfizer, Inc. (Pfizer) and 23andMe announced a collaboration in 2014 to recruit up to 10,000 individuals suffering from Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) in a research initiative designed to explore the genetic factors associated with the onset, progression, severity and response to treatments for BID. Pfizer and 23andMe announced a further collaboration in 2015 for a longitudinal study involving lupus, which entailed enrolling and genotyping 5,000 people suffering from lupus. The announcement indicated that the collaboration would include the integration of medical records, targetedbio-sampling along with genetic information for all participants. Financial terms were not disclosed for either collaboration. Accordingly, we were unable to consider this transaction in our valuation analysis. We note that if we had available financial terms, similar factors that limit the comparability of the Genentech/23andMe transaction to our offer of shares would apply to these collaborations.
deCode/Amgen
deCode Genetics, Inc. (deCode) has a complicated history. deCode was founded in 1996, raised $199 million in its initial public offering in 2000, and filed for bankruptcy in 2009. Arch Venture Partners acquired deCode out of bankruptcy for $14,000,000 and further invested an undisclosed sum into the purchased assets. Amgen, Inc. (Amgen) acquired deCode for $415,000,000 in 2012, and thenspun-out NextCode Health which was acquired by WuXi PharmaTech, Inc. for $65,000,000 in 2015. The acquisition of deCode gave Amgen genomic information, biobank specimens and medical histories of 160,000 individuals, representing over half of the adult population of Iceland. The population of Iceland is known as a “founder population,” meaning the genetic diversity is limited compared to a randomly sampled human population. The combination of genomic and family medical history from a founder population is significantly more valuable than genomic information from the self-selected population from which we will solicit our members because far fewer persons are needed from a founder population to identify statistically significant correlations between genomic information and observed medical traits (such as the occurrence of a particular disease). Moreover, the subject data derived from an Icelandic governmental study that was unique and is likely impossible to replicate. Finally, the data obtained was exclusive to Amgen and could be used by Amgen in perpetuity. Because of the unique nature of the population and data acquired, and the substantial difference in rights acquired, including the exclusivity and scarcity of the data, we did not consider this transaction in our analyses.
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4 | We estimate the maximum number of individuals we could add as members through this offering would be 1.4 to 1.6 million members. |
5 | We note also that the Company will not earn any revenue should one of our members agree both to be identified to a customer that purchases a query of our Database and to participate in a clinical trial. Pursuant to our purchaser consent, our members will agree that we may contact them from time to time regarding opportunities for them to participate in targeted research. We will notify our members of the terms of participation, including any compensation offered by the sponsor of the study. Participation in targeted research will be completely voluntary. |
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