The Green Street Valuation Methodology includes an initial valuation (“Initial Valuation”) conducted by Green Street, which the Company expects to be completed by Green Street in the next few months, followed by monthly or quarterly ongoing valuations (“Ongoing Valuations”) as determined by the Board, which will also be conducted by Green Street.
Initial Valuation
The first quarterly valuation that Green Street conducts will ascribe values for both the stabilized and un-stabilized homes in our Portfolio. For purposes of the Green Street Valuation Methodology, a home will be considered un-stabilized if it is unoccupied and acquired-or-completed its renovation within the last twelve months. A home is also considered un-stabilized if the remaining renovation costs exceed 15% of cost basis (i.e., the acquisition price and completed renovation costs). Homes not meeting the criteria for un-stabilization are considered stabilized. The valuation of stabilized homes begins with the aggregation of third-party automated valuation model (“AVM”) estimates. Third-party automated valuation models calculate a property’s estimated value in real-time using mathematical algorithms combined with databases of existing properties and transactions. Green Street will assess the implied metrics stemming from AVM estimates, by triangulating between implied capitalization rates, anticipated operating margins, and sales values per square foot to ascribe an explicit value. Green Street will calculate a stabilized capitalization rate using an estimate of operating income over the ensuing twelve months (“Forward NOI”) divided by the AVM output. Provided that AVM estimates imply a capitalization rate that differs significantly from other market-level observations (i.e., greater than two standard deviations from the mean capitalization rate), further analysis will be conducted and manual/subjective adjustments may be warranted and applied.
Green Street will estimate the value of un-stabilized homes using the discounted cash flow method. The discounted cash flow method begins with an estimation of home value upon stabilization using the capitalized income approach. Capitalized income determines real estate value based on an estimate of Forward NOI and divides that income by a market-level capitalization rate. Market-level rent and operating margin estimates will be used to determine Forward NOI. Stabilized capitalization rates for each market will be determined using the implied capitalization rate of the Company’s existing stabilized portfolio. The projected stabilized home value is discounted at Green Street’s estimated unlevered required return to ascribe a current value. Unlevered required return estimates incorporate market-level cap rates, future NOI growth, and an adjustment for risk.
In addition to the home valuations, Green Street will value other assets and liabilities to arrive at a preliminary NAV. Cash, listed securities, receivables, prepaid expenses, and other current assets which have a defined and quantifiable market value are included in the gross asset value. Intangible assets without a quantifiable market value (i.e., goodwill) are excluded. Long-term fixed-rate liabilities are marked-to-market using a prevailing treasury yield of similar maturity and an appropriate spread to account for risk. Variable rate debt is listed at book value. Preferred equity obligations are accounted for at face value and listed as an addition to debt. Accounts payable and other current liabilities which have a defined and quantifiable market value are included at book value. The preliminary NAV per share is expected to be calculated on a fully diluted basis, assuming all restricted stock unit grants and profit interest unit grants are fully vested and all units of the Operating Partnership are converted to common stock of the Company.
Ongoing Valuations
Subsequent to the Initial Valuation, Green Street will determine stabilized home values by applying a proprietary appreciation index to Green Street’s estimate of beginning stabilized value. Beginning stabilized value for each home is determined either during the Initial Valuation or after an un-stabilized home becomes stabilized. The proprietary appreciation index utilizes a blend of Freddie Mac and Case-Schiller indices, the weighting of which is proprietary to Green Street. Green Street will estimate the value of homes that were un-stabilized during the Initial Valuation and transitioned to stabilization within the last three months (“Transition Homes”). Transition Homes will be valued using the capitalized income methodology. Green Street will estimate Forward NOI by reviewing Company’s in-place income and expense data and applying estimates for forward growth. Market-level stabilized capitalization rates will be determined using the implied capitalization rate of the Company’s existing stabilized assets. This value will serve as the starting point from which home price appreciation is applied in subsequent quarters. Un-stabilized homes will be the same as outlined in the Initial Valuation section above. As new homes are purchased each quarter, Green Street will assess the state of the asset (i.e., stabilized or un-stabilized) using occupancy figures, in-place rent relative to market (if occupied), and anticipated renovation costs. Value estimates for newly acquired assets will be determined according to Green Street’s Initial Valuation methodology for stabilized and un-stabilized assets. The ongoing valuations for the various other assets and liabilities will follow the same methodology as outlined in the Initial Valuation.
To assist Green Street in their analysis for the Initial Valuation and Ongoing Valuations, the Adviser sends the following information as of the valuation date to Green Street:
| • | | A data tape that details the following information on each property in the Portfolio: |
| • | | Address and geographic market location |
| • | | Management’s assessment of stabilization status |
| • | | Property type (i.e. single home or duplex) |
| • | | Actual and projected capital expenditures |
| • | | Net operating income detail |
| • | | A preliminary unaudited consolidated balance sheet, subject to completion, including the completion of customary financial statement closing and review procedures for the period |
| • | | Basic and diluted consolidated share counts |
| • | | A debt schedule detailing the following for each note/facility: |
| • | | Current outstanding balance |
| • | | Maximum outstanding balance |
| • | | Effective interest rate information (index and spread) |
Once the above information is provided by the Adviser to Green Street, Green Street analyzes the data and synthesizes it with their proprietary real estate data and calculations (as described above) to assess and estimate the growth, income, margin and risk of the Portfolio as a whole. These estimated inputs then factor into their preliminary NAV.
Our Financing Strategy
We intend to use leverage to provide additional funds to support our investment activities, with the expectation that this will enhance returns. Leverage allows us to make more investments than would otherwise be possible, resulting in a broader and more diverse portfolio with potentially higher returns but also with more risk.
We leverage our Portfolio by assuming or incurring secured or unsecured property-level or entity-level debt. An example of property-level debt is a mortgage loan secured by an individual property or portfolio of properties incurred or assumed in connection with the acquisition of such property or portfolio of properties. An example of entity-level debt is a line of credit obtained by us or our Operating Partnership or subsidiaries.
Our actual leverage level will be affected by a number of factors, some of which are outside our control. Significant inflows of proceeds from our ongoing private offering generally will cause our leverage as a percentage of net assets, or our leverage ratio, to decrease, at least temporarily. Our leverage ratio will also increase or decrease with decreases or increases, respectively, in the value of our Portfolio.
Our target leverage is 60-65% loan-to-value (“LTV”), with value being calculated as the value of our assets used to determine our NAV (see Item 2. “Financial Information—Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Overview”) and capital priced at one-month London InterBank Offered Rate (“LIBOR”) plus 150-325 bps, depending on whether the loan is secured or unsecured, the duration of the loan and specific provisions and covenants contained in the loan. We may additionally enter into interest rate swap contracts whereby we synthetically fix floating interest rates on loans.
The following table presents a summary of our current outstanding indebtedness as of March 31, 2021:
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