RESERVES FOR UNPAID LOSS AND LOSS ADJUSTMENT EXPENSES | 6. RESERVES FOR UNPAID LOSS AND LOSS ADJUSTMENT EXPENSES To recognize liabilities for unpaid losses, both known or unknown, the company establishes reserves, which is a balance sheet account entry representing estimates of future amounts needed to pay claims and related expenses. The reserves are comprised of case reserves, incurred but not reported claims (“IBNR”) and the estimated expenses of settling claims, including claims specific costs (such as legal, loss adjuster fees). Case Reserves : When a claim is reported, a member of the claims team will establish a “case reserve”. The case reserve will represent an estimate of the expected settlement amount and will be based on information about the specific claim at that time. The estimate represents an informed judgment based on general industry practices, the experience and knowledge of the claims handler and practices of the claims team. IBNR: Management estimates the ultimate losses and loss adjustment expenses using a range of widely accepted actuarial methodologies and additional approaches as appropriate. The main methodologies used to project claims to ultimate include but are not limited to: Chain Ladder Method Initial Expected Loss Ratio (“IELR”) Method The IELRs are derived for each line of business as part of the business planning process. Where relevant and credible data is available, a “bridging” process is used to inform the selection of the IELRs and itself divides each IELR into the following components: Small losses, large risk losses, modelled catastrophe losses (losses arising from perils in countries modelled by our natural catastrophe modelling software, currently Verisk) and non-modelled Losses (losses could include but not limited to man-made “catastrophes” or natural catastrophes in countries not modelled by Verisk). The modelling process first considers the IELRs gross of outward reinsurance and then derives the anticipated outward reinsurance recoveries resulting from the gross assumptions. The reinsurance program is modelled within a capital modelling package (currently Aon’s Tyche integrated modelling ecosystem). The aim of the bridging process is to restate trended and developed experience for each past year as if it was the experience in the underwriting year. Then the accident year loss ratios are derived by unwinding the underwriting year results by half a year. This restatement involves: Bornhuetter-Ferguson (“BF”) method For paid claims For case reported claims Ceded Reinsurance and Net IBNR: Reserves for outward reinsurance recoveries on estimated IBNR claims are determined by the application of reinsurance recovery ratios to the estimated gross IBNRs. This process is undertaken by line of business and by year. The derivation of the reinsurance recovery ratio considers each type of reinsurance (Facultative, Proportional Treaty and Excess of Loss Treaty) separately, with the estimates of the reinsurance recovery ratio developing over time depending on actual claims experience. The key assumptions in calculating the most recent reserves are reviewed each quarter and adjusted where necessary. There were no significant changes in the gross or ceded methodology and assumptions during the most recent reporting period. The following table represents an analysis of loss and loss adjustment expenses and a reconciliation of the beginning and ending reserve for unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses: Year Ended December 31 2023 USD ’000 2022 USD ’000 2021 USD ’000 Reserve for unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses 636,245 577,650 498,582 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses, net of allowance for expected credit losses (188,800 ) (182,124 ) (188,738 ) Net reserve for unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses at beginning of year 447,445 395,526 309,844 Loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred, net of reinsurance: Current accident year 228,381 199,577 193,811 Prior accident years (39,294 ) (42,015 ) (20,772 ) Total loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred, net of reinsurance 189,087 157,562 173,039 Loss and loss adjustment expenses paid, net of reinsurance: Current accident year (25,875 ) (14,886 ) (16,061 ) Prior accident years (110,844 ) (90,721 ) (71,247 ) Total loss and loss adjustment expenses paid, net of reinsurance (136,719 ) (105,607 ) (87,308 ) Change in allowance for expected credit losses on reinsurance recoverables on unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses 36 (36 ) (49 ) Net reserve for unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses at end of year 499,849 447,445 395,526 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses, net of allowance for expected credit losses 212,249 188,800 182,124 Reserve for unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses at end of year 712,098 636,245 577,650 Development on Prior Loss Reserves: For the year ended December 31, 2023, the net ultimate loss increased by USD 228,381 thousand for accident year 2023 and decreased by USD 39,294 thousand for accident years 2022 and prior. The decrease in prior years’ ultimate losses is comparable to USD 42,015 thousand in 2022 and is split between USD 19,193 for the long-tail business, USD 16,915 thousand for the short-tail business and USD 3,186 thousand for the reinsurance business. Assumptions for future inflation have been updated to reflect the increase in the costs of goods and some services and an anticipated knock-on change in wage-related costs. The decrease in ultimate losses is however driven by consistent favorable claims experience. Claims development The following tables provide information about incurred and paid claims development, net of reinsurance, as well as cumulative claims frequency. The tables include IBNR reserves plus expected development on reported claims, and the cumulative number of reported claims as at December 31, 2023. Cumulative number of reported claims is reported on a per claim basis. Information about incurred and paid claims development for the years ended December 31, 2014 to December 31, 2022 is presented as unaudited supplementary information. Incurred Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance – Specialty Long-tail As of December 31, 2023 Accident For the years ended December 31 IBNR liabilities and expected development on reported Cumulative number of reported year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 claims claims USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 2014 3,291 8,443 9,215 10,013 12,513 11,825 11,549 11,396 11,256 11,455 4 508 2015 - 3,633 8,137 8,073 11,031 9,885 9,467 8,895 9,257 9,237 11 738 2016 - - 2,758 7,868 17,376 15,373 17,299 17,096 16,830 16,099 810 922 2017 - - - 4,542 25,186 27,658 28,840 26,826 25,431 23,894 1,291 1,523 2018 - - - - 42,580 44,766 45,182 41,041 35,191 43,288 8,568 2,303 2019 - - - - - 61,152 62,689 50,375 54,433 53,582 7,792 3,743 2020 - - - - - - 85,084 90,179 82,863 84,893 12,915 3,267 2021 - - - - - - - 100,084 78,749 61,989 22,989 2,394 2022 - - - - - - - - 83,392 73,707 45,179 2,167 2023 - - - - - - - - - 88,444 74,112 2,138 Total 466,588 Cumulative Paid Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance – Specialty Long-tail For the years ended December 31 Unaudited Prior Years Accident year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 2014 1,444 5,681 7,392 7,694 9,092 10,583 10,867 11,074 11,132 11,253 2015 - 941 2,128 4,535 5,675 6,240 6,841 7,007 6,919 8,422 2016 - - 792 2,639 5,119 7,071 7,981 12,074 13,405 14,111 2017 - - - 509 4,877 11,092 15,967 18,242 19,297 20,324 2018 - - - - 2,807 10,915 17,326 20,715 24,993 29,334 2019 - - - - - 4,463 17,503 22,951 31,363 36,508 2020 - - - - - - 4,573 22,884 39,541 52,719 2021 - - - - - - - 4,519 14,775 24,693 2022 - - - - - - - - 3,293 15,322 2023 - - - - - - - - - 4,985 Total 217,671 All outstanding liabilities prior to 2014, net of reinsurance 2,892 Reserve for unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance 251,809 Incurred Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance – Specialty Short-tail As of December 31, 2023 IBNR liabilities and expected development Cumulative Accident For the years ended December 31 on number of year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 claims claims USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 2014 48,946 55,148 55,047 53,272 51,712 50,646 49,956 49,931 50,102 50,087 3 2,047 2015 - 44,305 58,417 58,008 57,282 57,524 57,475 57,206 57,101 57,209 14 1,832 2016 - - 55,683 67,098 64,789 63,532 65,074 65,498 65,806 65,778 - 2,191 2017 - - - 52,715 75,847 74,425 71,505 71,543 71,516 71,012 114 2,536 2018 - - - - 43,103 49,054 52,999 59,265 59,144 58,488 155 2,356 2019 - - - - - 50,247 43,406 41,649 41,433 40,646 223 2,156 2020 - - - - - - 57,745 50,876 51,517 55,102 1,453 1,892 2021 - - - - - - - 74,394 64,493 60,008 3,200 2,080 2022 - - - - - - - - 100,030 85,522 8,159 2,481 2023 - - - - - - - - - 109,997 64,895 1,851 Total 653,849 Cumulative Paid Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance – Specialty Short-tail For the years ended December 31 Accident Unaudited Prior Years year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 2014 10,356 36,942 42,468 48,346 49,373 49,496 49,359 49,414 49,657 49,688 2015 - 16,300 36,771 50,581 52,759 55,976 56,154 56,181 56,724 56,808 2016 - - 15,751 44,609 59,442 62,054 62,665 64,112 64,914 65,172 2017 - - - 16,317 39,217 50,218 58,223 63,029 67,460 67,334 2018 - - - - 17,087 34,338 47,573 51,100 51,232 54,285 2019 - - - - - 8,654 21,029 30,993 33,847 35,043 2020 - - - - - - 6,737 17,591 26,771 29,869 2021 - - - - - - - 10,396 29,782 43,704 2022 - - - - - - - - 10,428 40,185 2023 - - - - - - - - - 15,517 Total 457,605 All outstanding liabilities prior to 2014, net of reinsurance 2,063 Reserve for unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance 198,307 Incurred Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance – Reinsurance As of December 31, 2023 For the years ended December 31 IBNR Cumulative number of Accident Unaudited Prior Years on reported reported year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 claims claims USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD 2014 6,444 6,613 6,157 5,661 5,133 5,139 4,998 5,007 5,005 5,019 1 250 2015 - 2,100 4,385 5,888 6,419 6,187 6,050 6,149 6,012 5,946 4 230 2016 - - 3,299 5,891 7,303 7,403 7,594 7,476 7,183 7,209 22 305 2017 - - - 9,563 15,243 14,758 15,150 15,783 14,989 14,704 124 423 2018 - - - - 10,092 11,168 9,225 9,073 8,718 8,901 67 437 2019 - - - - - 14,333 11,363 10,936 11,062 11,039 168 490 2020 - - - - - - 11,437 10,900 11,526 10,785 348 455 2021 - - - - - - - 17,788 19,628 20,346 1,274 431 2022 - - - - - - - - 16,184 12,971 1,244 397 2023 - - - - - - - - - 29,940 16,349 248 Total 126,860 Cumulative Paid Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance – Reinsurance For the years ended December 31 Unaudited Prior Years Accident year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 USD ’000 2014 745 5,106 5,024 4,709 4,704 4,821 4,832 4,958 4,961 5,006 2015 - (178 ) 2,881 4,649 5,395 5,659 5,738 5,734 5,745 5,842 2016 - - 359 3,106 5,223 6,102 6,612 6,804 6,872 6,952 2017 - - - 2,593 7,436 9,375 12,633 12,815 13,156 13,257 2018 - - - - 131 5,675 6,999 7,365 7,610 7,882 2019 - - - - - 2,527 7,207 8,532 9,256 9,680 2020 - - - - - - 97 3,123 4,304 5,240 2021 - - - - - - - 1,179 8,154 13,437 2022 - - - - - - - - 951 5,316 2023 - - - - - - - - - 5,373 Total 77,985 All outstanding liabilities prior to 2014, net of reinsurance 497 Reserve for unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance 49,372 The following table presents unaudited supplementary information about the average annual percentage payout of incurred claims, net of reinsurance for the year ended December 31, 2023: Average Annual Percentage Payout of Insurance Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Specialty Long-tail 32 % 23 % 17 % 11 % 7 % 5 % 3 % 1 % 1 % Specialty Short-tail 53 % 25 % 11 % 6 % 3 % 1 % 1 % - - Reinsurance 46 % 23 % 13 % 7 % 4 % 3 % 2 % 1 % 1 % The following table provides a reconciliation of the net incurred and paid loss development tables to the reserve for unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses as at December 31, 2023: As of USD ’000 Net outstanding liabilities Specialty Long-tail 251,809 Specialty Short-tail 198,307 Reinsurance 49,372 Reserve for unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses 499,488 Allowance for expected credit losses on reinsurance recoverables 361 Reserve for unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses, net of allowance 499,849 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses Specialty Long-tail 105,186 Specialty Short-tail 107,424 Reinsurance - Total reinsurance recoverable on unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses 212,610 Allowance for expected credit losses on reinsurance recoverables (361 ) Total reinsurance recoverable on unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses, net of allowance for expected credit losses 212,249 Total gross reserves for unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses 712,098 |