So, if I sign a contract today, for factory X — right? — I’m going to only be investing money for the next 12 to 24 months. I’m not going to see a single penny of revenue from them, until I turn that on, because they only pay when I start producing. Then, I’m going to get a revenue stream for the next 20 years from them. And so, I don’t have to keep selling that revenue stream each year to add to it. So, everything I’ve done stacks on top of each other, for 20 years. And so, you constantly are walking into the next year with your revenue baseline set, and adding to that. And it’s a great effect of stacking.
What we’ve done to try to mitigate that and try to help, you know, analysts and the public understand the size of scale of what we’re doing is, we’re publishing metrics that are 20 year contracted revenue metrics and 20 year contracted operating profit metrics, where we’re saying, you know, in an undiscounted way, based just on stuff we’ve signed, here is what the next 20 years of revenue we already have contracted is. And that way, when I sign a large project, everybody can look at that and understand the scale and the overall value of the company, right?
You can say, hey, this just added 10, 20% to the 20 year contracted revenue, and everybody can understand how that mattered today, and not waiting to try to show how, in two years, it’s going to adjust my quarterly financials by blank. And that’s a really transparent way to do that, we think. But it involves a lot of market education, and a lot of analysts who are willing to take the time to do, you know, a deep dive and say, this is really how you should look at value. But I can’t ask analysts to take a 20 year view on value if I don’t give them a 20 year metric.
Nick Clayton
Sure. Yeah, I wanted to ask about that. Yeah, I did. And I wanted to ask specifically about that metric, because, as you mentioned in your presentation, you have down there as your project’s looking to produce $514 million in revenue over a 20 year time period, with about $337 million in operating profit. But you acknowledge that there are some, you know, some factors that could be variables in that. And so, what are some of those factors that, you know, that go into the — that you’re weighing, in terms of coming up with that sort of hard figure?
Jereme Kent
So, the first thing you need know about 20 year metrics is, unless you know how they’re built, they’re all crap. So, you have to fully understand how they’re built. And so, the way we approach that is, in our S-4, we have a section called, you know, understand our KPI methodologies. And we actually went through, line by line, every number that factors into those KPIs, and said, what do we know, like, the price of power, is it contracted with the customer that’s, you know, $0.055 not going to change, per kilowatt hour. You know, what are we taking educated guesses on, you know, the average wind each year?
And then we said, okay, and then here, what are the variables? Like what is the 10 year forward price of renewable energy credits? I have no idea. So, we defined how we’re modeling that and said we’re going to model that particular factor, based on the day we sign the contract, and not adjust it. And so, what we did is, went through, line by line, into all of the things that build up into that and said, here’s what we know, here’s what we think, and here’s what we don’t know, and here’s how we’re solving for that, so that everybody can take a view.
And that way, people can look at it, and if an analyst has a different view on, you know, future rec markets than we do, great. They can make that adjustment. We’re not going to do that. We’re going to publish the same number every time, every, you know, over and over, so there’s a baseline to compare to. And that way, hopefully, it becomes a real usable tool for everybody. And that’s really the goal that we’re trying to get to.
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