Property Casualty Loss And Loss Expenses | Property Casualty Loss and Loss Expenses We use actuarial methods, models, assumptions and judgment to estimate, as of a financial statement date, the property casualty loss and loss expense reserves required to pay for and settle all outstanding insured claims, including IBNR claims, as of that date. The actuarial estimate is subject to review and adjustment by an inter-departmental committee that includes actuarial, claims, underwriting, loss prevention and finance management. This committee is familiar with relevant company and industry business, claims and underwriting trends, as well as general economic and legal trends that could affect future loss and loss expense payments. The amount we will actually have to pay for claims can be highly uncertain. This uncertainty, together with the size of our reserves, makes the loss and loss expense reserves our most significant estimate. Our reserving process takes into account known facts and interpretations of circumstances and factors including the type of claim, policy provisions pertaining to each claim, potential subrogation or salvage recoverable, large loss activity and trends, new business activity, judicial decisions, economic conditions, changes in law and regulation and product and underwriting changes. There have been no significant changes in methodologies and assumptions used in calculating loss and loss expense reserves for all years presented. There were no material additional premiums or return premiums accrued for as a result of prior-year effects. Our claims representatives establish case reserves when claims are reported to provide for our unpaid loss and loss expense obligation associated with individual claims. For events designated as natural catastrophes resulting in losses incurred related to direct premiums, we calculate IBNR reserves directly as a result of an estimated claim counts and estimated average dollar amount per claim for each event. Once individual case reserves are established for a catastrophe event, we reduce the IBNR reserves. Our actuarial staff uses generally accepted actuarial methods and models to derive ultimate loss and IBNR reserve estimates. The time interval between a claims occurrence and its settlement is one of the crucial attributes when estimating ultimate losses and IBNR reserves. Due to the uncertainties inherent with loss reserves, our ultimate loss experience could prove better or worse than what our carried reserves reflect. To the extent that reserves are inadequate and are required to be increased, the amount of the increase is a charge in that period, raising our loss and loss expense ratio and reducing earnings. To the extent that reserves are redundant and are required to be released, the amount of the release is a credit in that period, reducing our loss and loss expense ratio and increasing earnings. This table summarizes activity for our consolidated property casualty loss and loss expense reserves: (Dollars in millions) Years ended December 31, 2022 2021 2020 Gross loss and loss expense reserves, January 1 $ 7,229 $ 6,677 $ 6,088 Less reinsurance recoverable 327 277 342 Net loss and loss expense reserves, January 1 6,902 6,400 5,746 Net incurred loss and loss expenses related to: Current accident year 4,875 4,024 3,968 Prior accident years (159) (428) (131) Total incurred 4,716 3,596 3,837 Net paid loss and loss expenses related to: Current accident year 1,592 1,379 1,493 Prior accident years 2,095 1,715 1,690 Total paid 3,687 3,094 3,183 Net loss and loss expense reserves, December 31 7,931 6,902 6,400 Plus reinsurance recoverable 405 327 277 Gross loss and loss expense reserves, December 31 $ 8,336 $ 7,229 $ 6,677 At December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, the reserve for loss and loss expense in the consolidated balance sheets also included $64 million, $76 million and $69 million, respectively, for certain life and health loss and loss expense reserves. Additional disclosures for reserves related to these health claims are not material and therefore not provided. During 2022, we experienced $159 million of favorable development on prior accident years including $76 million of favorable development in commercial lines, $61 million of favorable development in personal lines and $9 million of favorable development in excess and surplus lines. Within commercial lines, we recognized favorable development of $63 million for the workers' compensation line and $44 million for the commercial property line due to reduced uncertainty of prior accident year loss and loss expense for these lines. This was partially offset by unfavorable development of $25 million for the commercial casualty line and $23 million for the commercial auto line. Within personal lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of $54 million for the homeowner line of business. During 2021, we experienced $428 million of favorable development on prior accident years including $353 million of favorable development in commercial lines, $50 million of favorable development in personal lines and $7 million of unfavorable development in excess and surplus lines. Within commercial lines, we recognized favorable development of $120 million for the commercial casualty line, $97 million for the commercial property line, $66 million for the workers' compensation line and $43 million for the commercial auto line due to reduced uncertainty of prior accident year loss and loss expense for these lines. Within personal lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of $31 million in personal auto and $14 million for the homeowner line of business. During 2020, we experienced $131 million of favorable development on prior accident years including $95 million of favorable development in commercial lines, $18 million of favorable development in personal lines and $7 million of unfavorable development in excess and surplus lines. Within commercial lines, we recognized favorable development $54 million for the commercial casualty line, $39 million for the workers' compensation line and $16 million for the commercial property line due to reduced uncertainty of prior accident year loss and loss expense for these lines. This was partially offset by unfavorable development of $17 million for the commercial auto line. Within personal lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of $15 million in personal auto and $5 million for the homeowner line of business. Included in our lines of business are asbestos and environmental claims. We carried $92 million and $88 million of net loss and loss expense reserves for asbestos and environmental claims at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. The asbestos and environmental claims amounts for each respective year constituted less than 2.0% of total net loss and loss expense reserves at these year-end dates. We believe our exposure to asbestos and environmental claims is limited, largely because our reinsurance retention was $500,000 or below prior to 1987. We also were predominantly a personal lines company in the 1960s and 1970s. During the 1980s and early 1990s, commercial lines grew as a percentage of our overall business and our exposure to asbestos and environmental claims grew accordingly. Over that period, we included an asbestos and environmental exclusion in almost all policies or endorsed the exclusion to the policies. We have no exposure to asbestos and environmental claims related to our acquisition of Cincinnati Global. We continue to monitor our claims for evidence of material exposure to other mass tort classes but have found no such credible evidence to date. The following table provides a reconciliation of the property casualty incurred losses and allocated loss adjustment expenses (ALAE) development and paid losses and ALAE development information at December 31, 2022. (Dollars in millions) Cumulative incurred losses Cumulative paid losses and ALAE as reported within the triangles, Liabilities for loss and ALAE for accident years not presented in the triangles, net of reinsurance Total liabilities for loss and ALAE, net of reinsurance Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses Total liabilities for gross loss and loss expense reserves Commercial casualty $ 5,932 $ 3,396 $ 86 $ 2,622 $ 43 $ 2,665 Workers' compensation 1,865 1,215 311 961 57 1,018 Commercial auto 2,332 1,581 40 791 5 796 Commercial property 3,312 2,774 15 553 47 600 Personal auto 1,831 1,557 13 287 28 315 Homeowner 2,275 1,952 6 329 8 337 Excess and surplus 1,272 587 2 687 37 724 Other lines 1,512 Total liabilities for loss and ALAE reserves 7,967 Unallocated loss adjustment expense reserves 369 Gross loss and loss expense reserves $ 8,336 For all lines of business, the claim counts reported are primarily measured by insurance coverages that are triggered when a loss occurs and a reserve is established. For this purpose, coverages are defined as unique combinations of certain attributes such as line of business and cause of loss. Claims that are opened and closed without payment are included in the reported claim counts. Claim counts are presented on a direct basis only and do not reflect any assumed or ceded reinsurance. In the following tables, commercial casualty, workers' compensation and excess and surplus lines each disclose 10 accident years of loss and ALAE reserves and the cumulative number of reported claims. Commercial auto, commercial property, personal auto and homeowner each disclose five accident years of loss and ALAE reserves and the cumulative number of reported claims consistent with the number of years for which claims incurred typically remain outstanding. Commercial Casualty The following table shows the commercial casualty incurred and paid losses and ALAE development by accident year. The table also shows the IBNR reserves plus expected development on reported losses and claim frequency: (Dollars in millions, reported claims in thousands) As of December 31, 2022 Incurred losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance for the years ended December 31, Total of incurred Cumulative number of Accident Unaudited Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013 $ 448 $ 443 $ 431 $ 416 $ 413 $ 407 $ 391 $ 386 $ 385 $ 381 $ 9 20 2014 503 496 479 476 479 465 469 466 462 10 21 2015 533 526 529 516 508 502 504 496 14 22 2016 563 574 557 555 554 538 531 32 22 2017 610 597 577 571 555 554 51 21 2018 650 641 622 588 612 77 22 2019 672 643 607 669 124 20 2020 674 629 606 188 14 2021 714 697 338 13 2022 924 613 10 Total $ 5,932 Cumulative paid losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance 2013 $ 35 $ 90 $ 159 $ 232 $ 286 $ 312 $ 337 $ 348 $ 355 $ 366 2014 34 97 172 287 338 390 409 421 437 2015 38 108 200 287 362 404 424 453 2016 46 126 228 331 395 434 466 2017 48 122 234 320 392 437 2018 44 148 253 345 441 2019 39 134 259 394 2020 33 102 242 2021 31 123 2022 37 Total 3,396 All outstanding liabilities before 2013, net of reinsurance 86 Liabilities for loss and ALAE, net of reinsurance $ 2,622 The following table shows the average annual percentage payout of incurred losses for the commercial casualty line of business: Average annual percentage payout of incurred losses by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited) Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average annual percentage payout 6.9% 14.0% 18.9% 18.7% 13.5% 8.4% 5.1% 3.8% 2.7% 2.4% Workers’ Compensation The following table shows the workers’ compensation incurred and paid losses and ALAE development by accident year. The table also shows the IBNR reserves plus expected development on reported losses and claim frequency: (Dollars in millions, reported claims in thousands) As of December 31, 2022 Incurred losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance for the years ended December 31, Total of incurred Cumulative number of Accident Unaudited Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013 $ 264 $ 246 $ 221 $ 212 $ 208 $ 205 $ 202 $ 201 $ 204 $ 204 $ 16 20 2014 261 233 214 203 201 198 197 202 202 16 19 2015 246 220 208 195 179 173 173 171 23 17 2016 230 218 206 188 183 183 183 24 16 2017 218 208 190 183 172 167 27 15 2018 222 207 199 186 179 28 15 2019 224 215 202 188 41 14 2020 204 190 172 55 11 2021 202 190 49 11 2022 209 84 10 Total $ 1,865 Cumulative paid losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance 2013 $ 61 $ 119 $ 144 $ 157 $ 164 $ 168 $ 170 $ 174 $ 177 $ 179 2014 56 110 134 148 157 162 165 168 171 2015 47 93 115 129 134 137 139 139 2016 46 97 119 131 141 146 148 2017 45 88 106 114 119 122 2018 48 95 115 127 133 2019 49 94 115 122 2020 37 68 82 2021 37 82 2022 37 Total 1,215 All outstanding liabilities before 2013, net of reinsurance 311 Liabilities for loss and ALAE, net of reinsurance $ 961 The following table shows the average annual percentage payout of incurred losses for the workers’ compensation line of business: Average annual percentage payout of incurred losses by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited) Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average annual percentage payout 24.8% 25.4% 11.2% 6.1% 3.8% 2.2% 1.3% 1.0% 1.3% 0.9% Commercial Auto The following table shows the commercial auto incurred and paid losses and ALAE development by accident year. The table also shows the IBNR reserves plus expected development on reported losses and claim frequency: (Dollars in millions, reported claims in thousands) As of December 31, 2022 Incurred losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance for the years ended December 31, Total of incurred Cumulative number of reported claims Accident Unaudited Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 $ 453 $ 442 $ 442 $ 440 $ 444 $ 9 49 2019 452 451 453 469 18 46 2020 424 391 384 37 36 2021 470 477 91 39 2022 558 181 37 Total $ 2,332 Cumulative paid losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance 2018 $ 184 $ 266 $ 337 $ 378 $ 411 2019 183 268 333 395 2020 154 214 280 2021 179 278 2022 217 Total 1,581 All outstanding liabilities before 2018, net of reinsurance 40 Liabilities for loss and ALAE, net of reinsurance $ 791 The following table shows the average annual percentage payout of incurred losses for the commercial auto line of business. Commercial auto includes both physical damage and liability losses. A majority of the incurred losses paid after year 2 are the result of liability losses. Average annual percentage payout of incurred losses by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited) Years 1 2 3 4 5 Average annual percentage payout 39.4% 18.3% 15.6% 11.1% 7.8% Commercial Property The following table shows the commercial property incurred and paid losses and ALAE development by accident year. The table also shows the IBNR reserves plus expected development on reported losses and claim frequency: (Dollars in millions, reported claims in thousands) As of December 31, 2022 Incurred losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance for the years ended December 31, Total of incurred Cumulative number of reported claims Accident Unaudited Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 $ 630 $ 603 $ 590 $ 597 $ 596 $ 4 18 2019 621 606 600 598 6 17 2020 855 742 719 29 24 2021 607 586 15 14 2022 813 195 13 Total $ 3,312 Cumulative paid losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance 2018 $ 386 $ 559 $ 576 $ 589 $ 592 2019 413 561 579 590 2020 489 637 672 2021 326 527 2022 393 Total 2,774 All outstanding liabilities before 2018, net of reinsurance 15 Liabilities for loss and ALAE, net of reinsurance $ 553 The following table shows the average annual percentage payout of incurred losses for the commercial property line of business: Average annual percentage payout of incurred losses by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited) Years 1 2 3 4 5 Average annual percentage payout 61.1% 27.2% 3.6% 2.0% 0.4% Personal Auto The following table shows the personal auto incurred and paid losses and ALAE development by accident year. The table also shows the IBNR reserves plus expected development on reported losses and claim frequency: (Dollars in millions, reported claims in thousands) As of December 31, 2022 Incurred losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance for the years ended December 31, Total of incurred Cumulative number of reported claims Accident Unaudited Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 $ 424 $ 398 $ 395 $ 398 $ 401 $ 3 111 2019 399 383 380 383 4 102 2020 305 281 277 7 71 2021 350 343 14 80 2022 427 58 80 Total $ 1,831 Cumulative paid losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance 2018 $ 262 $ 327 $ 358 $ 379 $ 391 2019 250 314 346 363 2020 186 225 248 2021 219 278 2022 277 Total 1,557 All outstanding liabilities before 2018, net of reinsurance 13 Liabilities for loss and ALAE, net of reinsurance $ 287 The following table shows the average annual percentage payout of incurred losses for the personal auto line of business. Personal auto includes both physical damage and liability losses. A majority of the incurred losses paid after year 2 are the result of liability losses. Average annual percentage payout of incurred losses by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited) Years 1 2 3 4 5 Average annual percentage payout 65.2% 16.1% 8.2% 4.9% 2.8% Homeowner The following table shows the homeowner incurred and paid losses and ALAE development by accident year. The table also shows the IBNR reserves plus expected development on reported losses and claim frequency: (Dollars in millions, reported claims in thousands) As of December 31, 2022 Incurred losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance for the years ended December 31, Total of incurred Cumulative number of reported claims Accident Unaudited Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 $ 370 $ 386 $ 387 $ 388 $ 386 $ 1 24 2019 432 421 422 418 2 22 2020 497 475 470 7 23 2021 495 449 15 19 2022 552 120 17 Total $ 2,275 Cumulative paid losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance 2018 $ 268 $ 368 $ 378 $ 381 $ 384 2019 303 391 407 411 2020 326 434 453 2021 285 405 2022 299 Total 1,952 All outstanding liabilities before 2018, net of reinsurance 6 Liabilities for loss and ALAE, net of reinsurance $ 329 The following table shows the average annual percentage payout of incurred losses for the homeowner line of business: Average annual percentage payout of incurred losses by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited) Years 1 2 3 4 5 Average annual percentage payout 65.8% 24.2% 3.5% 0.9% 0.7% Excess and Surplus Lines The following table shows the excess and surplus lines incurred and paid losses and ALAE development by accident year. The table also shows the IBNR reserves plus expected development on reported losses and claim frequency: (Dollars in millions, reported claims in thousands) As of December 31, 2022 Incurred losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance for the years ended December 31, Total of incurred Cumulative number of reported claims Accident Unaudited Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013 $ 74 $ 64 $ 54 $ 45 $ 42 $ 41 $ 41 $ 41 $ 40 $ 41 $ — 2 2014 95 82 75 64 60 59 59 58 56 1 2 2015 96 81 73 67 65 66 65 61 1 2 2016 93 87 84 82 90 91 88 2 3 2017 104 95 95 94 94 91 5 3 2018 116 109 110 108 107 14 3 2019 137 135 141 139 28 3 2020 172 172 160 51 3 2021 217 235 98 3 2022 294 198 2 Total $ 1,272 Cumulative paid losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance 2013 $ 7 $ 12 $ 20 $ 27 $ 32 $ 34 $ 37 $ 39 $ 39 $ 40 2014 9 17 27 37 43 48 51 53 55 2015 8 19 29 41 51 54 56 58 2016 10 21 39 51 62 75 81 2017 11 23 41 57 68 77 2018 11 26 50 62 75 2019 13 34 55 79 2020 16 37 56 2021 17 45 2022 21 Total 587 All outstanding liabilities before 2013, net of reinsurance 2 Liabilities for loss and ALAE, net of reinsurance $ 687 The following table shows the average annual percentage payout of incurred losses for the excess and surplus lines insurance segment. Excess and surplus lines consist mostly of commercial casualty and commercial property coverages. A majority of the incurred losses paid after year 2 are the result of commercial casualty losses. Average annual percentage payout of incurred losses by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited) Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average annual percentage payout 11.3% 13.7% 18.1% 16.1% 12.7% 9.1% 5.2% 3.3% 1.7% 2.8% |