3rd Quarter Financial Report
General Revenue Fund Update
FINANCIAL OVERVIEW
At the third quarter of 2006-07, the General Revenue Fund (GRF) balance before inter-fund transfers is forecast to be down $11.3 million from the 2006-2007 Saskatchewan Mid-Year Report (Mid-Year). The Fiscal Stabilization Fund (FSF) transfer is forecast to be zero, unchanged from Mid-Year, and the Saskatchewan Infrastructure Fund (SIF) transfer is up $17.9 million from Mid-Year, yielding a GRF surplus forecast of $5.3 million.
Total revenue is forecast to be $8,324.5 million, an increase of $195.0 million from Mid-Year.
Operating expense is forecast to be $7,680.3 million, an increase of $206.3 million from Mid-Year.
Debt servicing costs are forecast to be $541.0 million, unchanged from Mid-Year.
2006-07 GRF Financial Outlook
|
---|
| Budget | Mid-Year | 3rd Quarter | Change from
|
---|
| Estimate
| Projection
| Forecast
| Budget
| Mid-Year
|
---|
| (millions of dollars)
|
---|
Revenue | | | $ | 7,727.2 | | $ | 8,129.5 | | $ | 8,324.5 | | $ | 597.3 | | $ | 195.0 | |
Operating Expense | | | | 7,149.3 | | | 7,474.0 | | | 7,680.3 | | | 531.0 | | | 206.3 | |
|
Operating Surplus | | | | 577.9 | | | 655.5 | | | 644.2 | | | 66.3 | | | (11.3 | ) |
Debt Servicing | | | | 551.0 | | | 541.0 | | | 541.0 | | | (10.0 | ) | | -- | |
|
Pre-Transfer Balance | | | | 26.9 | | | 114.5 | | | 103.2 | | | 76.3 | | | (11.3 | ) |
Transfer from (to) FSF | | | | 75.0 | | | -- | | | -- | | | (75.0 | ) | | -- | |
Transfer from (to) SIF | | | | -- | | | (80.0 | ) | | (97.9 | ) | | (97.9 | ) | | (17.9 | ) |
|
Surplus | | | $ | 101.9 | | $ | 34.5 | | $ | 5.3 | | $ | (96.6 | ) | $ | (29.2 | ) |
|
The FSF balance is forecast to be $887.5 million at the end of 2006-07, reflecting the $887.5 million FSF balance at the end of 2005-06 and no transfer in 2006-07.
The SIF balance is forecast to be $97.9 million at the end of 2006-07. This reflects a transfer of $100 million for the Building Communities program, offset by $16.6 million that will be spent in 2006-07, and a transfer of $14.5 million reflecting unexpended funding for federal-provincial municipal infrastructure programs.
Total debt is forecast to be $10.8 billion, an increase of $35.2 million from Mid-Year.
Government debt is forecast to be $7.3 billion, an increase of $30.8 million from Mid-Year.
Crown corporation debt is forecast to be $3.5 billion, an increase of $4.4 million from Mid-Year.
3rd Quarter Financial Report / GRF Update | 1 |
REVENUE UPDATE
At the third quarter, provincial total revenue is forecast to be up $195.0 million from Mid-Year.
Revenue Reconciliation |
---|
(millions of dollars)
|
---|
|
---|
Mid-Year Projection | | | $ | 8,129.5 | |
|
|
Revenue Changes | | |
Corporation Income Tax | | | | +128.0 | |
Individual Income Tax | | | | +16.8 | |
Oil | | | | +19.3 | |
Other Taxes | | | | +18.9 | |
Natural Gas | | | | +7.3 | |
Potash | | | | -32.9 | |
Other net changes | | | | +37.6 | |
|
|
Total Change | | | | +195.0 | |
|
|
|
3rd Quarter Forecast | | | $ | 8,324.5 | |
|
The revenue forecast increase is mainly due to higher taxation revenue from strong economic activity in 2005 and 2006.
• | Corporation Income Tax (CIT) and Personal Income Tax (PIT) are both forecast to increase since Mid-Year, mainly due to the receipt of prior-year adjustment payments to reconcile previous payments for the 2005 taxation year with actual tax assessments. CIT and PIT are forecast to increase by $128.0 million and $16.8 million, respectively. |
• | Oil revenue is forecast to increase $19.3 million from Mid-Year, despite a lower WTI price forecast. The increase is due to a larger-than-anticipated share of total production paying higher royalty rates, a lower exchange rate forecast and a smaller light-heavy differential. The current WTI forecast is US$63.10 per barrel, down from US$65.29 at Mid-Year, and the current exchange rate forecast is US$0.8806. |
• | Other tax revenue (including Sales Tax, Corporation Capital Tax, Fuel Tax and Tobacco Tax) is forecast to increase $18.9 million since Mid-Year, reflecting continued strength in the Saskatchewan economy. |
• | Natural gas revenue is forecast to increase $7.3 million from Mid-Year due to an increase in the price forecast from $5.61 per GJ at Mid-Year to the current $5.97 per GJ assumption. |
• | Potash revenue is forecast to decrease $32.9 million from Mid-Year due to lower potash prices, increased operating costs and the timing of profit tax payments for 2006 due to stalled contract negotiations with China. More than 25 per cent of the current forecast profit tax was paid by the industry in the first quarter of 2006, increasing 2005-06 revenue, but reducing what the industry will pay in the first three quarters of 2006-07. |
• | Other net changes in the revenue forecast total $37.6 million and reflect higher transfers from Crown entities ($13.4 million), higher interest earnings ($12.0 million), higher federal transfers ($7.5 million) and other own-source revenue gains ($4.7 million). |
2 | 3rd Quarter Financial Report / GRF Update |
EXPENSE UPDATE
At the third quarter, provincial total expense is forecast to be up $206.3 million from Mid-Year.
Expense Reconciliation |
---|
(millions of dollars)
|
---|
|
---|
Mid-Year Projection | | | $ | 8,015.0 | |
|
|
Expense Changes | | |
Community Resources | | | | +60.7 | |
Agriculture and Food | | | | +37.4 | |
Teachers’ Pensions and Benefits | | | | +24.0 | |
Corrections and Public Safety | | | | +20.2 | |
Advanced Education | | |
and Employment | | | | +17.0 | |
Health | | | | +17.0 | |
Learning | | | | +15.2 | |
Other net changes | | | | +14.8 | |
|
Total Change | | | | +206.3 | |
|
|
|
3rd Quarter Forecast | | | $ | 8,221.3 | |
|
The expense forecast increase is primarily due to higher spending in priority areas.
• | Community Resources is forecast to be $60.7 million above Mid-Year, primarily due to additional funding for affordable housing initiatives through the Saskatchewan Housing Corporation and to provide a capital grant for an on-reserve First Nations group home. |
• | Agriculture and Food is forecast to be $37.4 million above Mid-Year, primarily due to additional funding under the Agricultural Policy Framework agreement and funding the Saskatchewan Specified Risk Material Management program. |
• | Teachers’ Pensions and Benefits is forecast to be $24.0 million above Mid-Year, mainly due to changes in projections for teacher retirements. |
• | Corrections and Public Safety is forecast to be $20.2 million above Mid-Year, primarily due to the estimated cost of replacement services during the work stoppage in provincial correctional centres, partially offset by salary savings. |
• | Advanced Education and Employment is forecast to be $17.0 million above Mid-Year, primarily due to redeveloping a portion of Mount Royal Collegiate into a post-secondary training facility in partnership with the Saskatchewan Institute of Applied Science and Technology, the Saskatchewan Indian Institute of Technologies, the Saskatoon Public School Division, and the Dumont Technical Institute. |
• | Health is forecast to be $17.0 million above Mid-Year, primarily to provide funding for a community service centre in Saskatoon and for Regional Health Authority operating pressures. |
• | Learning is forecast to be $15.2 million above Mid-Year, primarily related to grant funding provided for the development of a multi-service, neighbourhood-based community centre and a trades and skills training facility in North Central Regina. |
3rd Quarter Financial Report / GRF Update | 3 |
DEBT UPDATE
The GRF borrows for government and Crown corporations.
Public debt as reported in the Province’s financial statements is comprised of:
• | Gross Debt - the amount of money owed to lenders; less, |
• | Sinking Funds – the amount of money which has been set aside for the repayment of debt. |
Total debt, or public debt plus guaranteed debt, is used by most members of the financial community when analyzing creditworthiness.
• | Guaranteed Debt – the debt of Crown corporations and others that the Province has promised to repay if they are unable to do so. |
Crown corporations are responsible for the principal and interest payments on their debt. Crown corporation debt is incurred in the normal course of business, primarily for investment in infrastructure and business development initiatives which provide revenue streams to service the debt.
2006-07 Debt Outlook
|
---|
| Budget | Mid-Year | 3rd Quarter | Change from
|
---|
As at March 31
| Estimate
| Projection
| Forecast
| Budget
| Mid-Year
|
---|
| (millions of dollars)
|
---|
Crown Corporation Debt | | | $ | 3,762.9 | | $ | 3,482.8 | | $ | 3,487.2 | | $ | (275.7 | ) | $ | 4.4 | |
Government Debt | | | | 7,198.0 | | | 7,323.6 | | | 7,354.4 | | | 156.4 | | | 30.8 | |
|
Total Debt | | | $ | 10,960.9 | | $ | 10,806.4 | | $ | 10,841.6 | | $ | (119.3 | ) | $ | 35.2 | |
|
Total debt of the GRF at March 31, 2007 is currently forecast to be $10.8 billion. This is $35.2 million higher than the projection at Mid-Year and $119.3 million lower than the 2006-07 Budget estimate.
Government debt at March 31, 2007 is currently forecast to be $7.3 billion. This is $30.8 million higher than the Mid-Year projection and $156.4 million higher than the 2006-07 Budget estimate.
Government Debt Reconciliation |
---|
(millions of dollars)
|
---|
|
---|
Mid-Year Projection | | | $ | 7,323.6 | |
|
|
Debt Changes | | |
Reduction in GRF surplus | | | | +29.2 | |
Other cash requirements | | | | +1.6 | |
|
Total Change | | | | +30.8 | |
|
|
|
3rd Quarter Forecast | | | $ | 7,354.4 | |
|
Crown corporation debt at March 31, 2007 is currently forecast to be $3.5 billion. This is $4.4 million higher than the Mid-Year projection and $275.7 million lower than the 2006-07 Budget estimate.
4 | 3rd Quarter Financial Report / GRF Update |
2006-07 Third Quarter Financial Report
Province of Saskatchewan
General Revenue Fund
Statement of Revenue
| Budget | Mid-Year | 3rd Quarter | Change from
|
---|
| Estimate
| Projection
| Forecast
| Budget
| Mid-Year
|
---|
| (thousands of dollars)
|
---|
Corporation Capital | | | $ | 427,100 | | $ | 475,000 | | $ | 480,000 | | $ | 52,900 | | $ | 5,000 | |
Corporation Income | | | | 361,400 | | | 396,700 | | | 524,700 | | | 163,300 | | | 128,000 | |
Fuel | | | | 371,300 | | | 371,300 | | | 376,600 | | | 5,300 | | | 5,300 | |
Individual Income | | | | 1,494,000 | | | 1,638,700 | | | 1,655,500 | | | 161,500 | | | 16,800 | |
Sales | | | | 1,097,000 | | | 1,021,100 | | | 1,028,000 | | | (69,000 | ) | | 6,900 | |
Tobacco | | | | 165,400 | | | 185,300 | | | 187,000 | | | 21,600 | | | 1,700 | |
Other | | | | 94,700 | | | 94,700 | | | 94,700 | | | -- | | | -- | |
|
Taxes | | | $ | 4,010,900 | | $ | 4,182,800 | | $ | 4,346,500 | | $ | 335,600 | | $ | 163,700 | |
|
Natural Gas | | | $ | 186,000 | | $ | 172,300 | | $ | 179,600 | | $ | (6,400 | ) | $ | 7,300 | |
Oil | | | | 989,800 | | | 1,188,600 | | | 1,207,900 | | | 218,100 | | | 19,300 | |
Potash | | | | 279,100 | | | 199,400 | | | 166,500 | | | (112,600 | ) | | (32,900 | ) |
Other | | | | 56,900 | | | 52,500 | | | 51,500 | | | (5,400 | ) | | (1,000 | ) |
|
Non-Renewable Resources | | | $ | 1,511,800 | | $ | 1,612,800 | | $ | 1,605,500 | | $ | 93,700 | | $ | (7,300 | ) |
|
Crown Investments Corporation of Saskatchewan | | | $ | 160,000 | | $ | 167,000 | | $ | 167,000 | | $ | 7,000 | | $ | -- | |
Saskatchewan Liquor and Gaming Authority | | | | 334,100 | | | 346,500 | | | 353,200 | | | 19,100 | | | 6,700 | |
Other Enterprises and Funds | | | | 42,500 | | | 43,000 | | | 49,700 | | | 7,200 | | | 6,700 | |
|
Transfers from Crown Entities | | | $ | 536,600 | | $ | 556,500 | | $ | 569,900 | | $ | 33,300 | | $ | 13,400 | |
|
Fines, Forfeits and Penalties | | | $ | 10,200 | | $ | 10,200 | | $ | 10,200 | | $ | -- | | $ | -- | |
Interest, Premium, Discount and Exchange | | | | 53,400 | | | 77,400 | | | 89,400 | | | 36,000 | | | 12,000 | |
Motor Vehicle Fees | | | | 128,700 | | | 130,000 | | | 132,700 | | | 4,000 | | | 2,700 | |
Other Licences and Permits | | | | 35,600 | | | 33,500 | | | 34,100 | | | (1,500 | ) | | 600 | |
Sales, Services and Service Fees | | | | 84,000 | | | 85,100 | | | 86,900 | | | 2,900 | | | 1,800 | |
Transfers from Other Governments | | | | 16,400 | | | 17,300 | | | 17,300 | | | 900 | | | -- | |
Other | | | | 16,000 | | | 19,400 | | | 20,000 | | | 4,000 | | | 600 | |
|
Other Revenue | | | $ | 344,300 | | $ | 372,900 | | $ | 390,600 | | $ | 46,300 | | $ | 17,700 | |
|
Own-Source Revenue | | | $ | 6,403,600 | | $ | 6,725,000 | | $ | 6,912,500 | | $ | 508,900 | | $ | 187,500 | |
|
Canada Health Transfer | | | $ | 760,800 | | $ | 745,300 | | $ | 726,700 | | $ | (34,100 | ) | $ | (18,600 | ) |
Canada Social Transfer | | | | 348,400 | | | 338,900 | | | 329,300 | | | (19,100 | ) | | (9,600 | ) |
Equalization Payments | | | | -- | | | 12,700 | | | 12,700 | | | 12,700 | | | -- | |
Other | | | | 214,400 | | | 307,600 | | | 343,300 | | | 128,900 | | | 35,700 | |
|
Transfers from the Government of Canada | | | $ | 1,323,600 | | $ | 1,404,500 | | $ | 1,412,000 | | $ | 88,400 | | $ | 7,500 | |
|
Revenue | | | $ | 7,727,200 | | $ | 8,129,500 | | $ | 8,324,500 | | $ | 597,300 | | $ | 195,000 | |
|
3rd Quarter Financial Report / GRF Update | 5 |
2006-07 Third Quarter Financial Report
Province of Saskatchewan
General Revenue Fund
Statement of Expense
| Budget | Mid-Year | 3rd Quarter | Change from
|
---|
| Estimate
| Projection
| Forecast
| Budget
| Mid-Year
|
---|
| (thousands of dollars)
|
---|
Executive Branch of Government | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Advanced Education and Employment | | | $ | 603,936 | | $ | 675,406 | | $ | 692,406 | | $ | 88,470 | | $ | 17,000 | |
Agriculture and Food | | | | 264,936 | | | 331,566 | | | 369,000 | | | 104,064 | | | 37,434 | |
Community Resources | | | | 602,415 | | | 651,361 | | | 712,080 | | | 109,665 | | | 60,719 | |
Corrections and Public Safety | | | | 129,612 | | | 143,159 | | | 163,309 | | | 33,697 | | | 20,150 | |
Culture, Youth and Recreation | | | | 50,340 | | | 72,450 | | | 72,450 | | | 22,110 | | | -- | |
Environment | | | | 179,739 | | | 194,855 | | | 193,539 | | | 13,800 | | | (1,316 | ) |
Executive Council | | | | 8,909 | | | 8,909 | | | 9,314 | | | 405 | | | 405 | |
Finance | | | | 40,759 | | | 40,759 | | | 40,759 | | | -- | | | -- | |
- Public Service Pensions and Benefits | | | | 219,103 | | | 219,103 | | | 224,011 | | | 4,908 | | | 4,908 | |
First Nations and Métis Relations | | | | 51,095 | | | 62,582 | | | 61,227 | | | 10,132 | | | (1,355 | ) |
Government Relations | | | | 199,407 | | | 213,372 | | | 212,255 | | | 12,848 | | | (1,117 | ) |
Health | | | | 3,178,583 | | | 3,208,983 | | | 3,225,983 | | | 47,400 | | | 17,000 | |
Highways and Transportation | | | | 288,930 | | | 311,560 | | | 315,960 | | | 27,030 | | | 4,400 | |
Industry and Resources | | | | 91,493 | | | 72,038 | | | 69,717 | | | (21,776 | ) | | (2,321 | ) |
Information Technology Office | | | | 5,508 | | | 5,608 | | | 6,836 | | | 1,328 | | | 1,228 | |
Justice | | | | 231,945 | | | 234,378 | | | 238,078 | | | 6,133 | | | 3,700 | |
Labour | | | | 15,680 | | | 15,680 | | | 15,680 | | | -- | | | -- | |
Learning | | | | 767,470 | | | 789,700 | | | 804,883 | | | 37,413 | | | 15,183 | |
- Teachers’ Pensions and Benefits | | | | 138,749 | | | 135,866 | | | 159,866 | | | 21,117 | | | 24,000 | |
Northern Affairs | | | | 5,716 | | | 5,716 | | | 5,716 | | | -- | | | -- | |
Property Management | | | | 9,942 | | | 8,493 | | | 13,136 | | | 3,194 | | | 4,643 | |
Public Service Commission | | | | 14,443 | | | 14,443 | | | 15,979 | | | 1,536 | | | 1,536 | |
Regional Economic and Co-operative Development | | | | 11,151 | | | 11,151 | | | 11,453 | | | 302 | | | 302 | |
Saskatchewan Research Council | | | | 8,446 | | | 8,446 | | | 8,446 | | | -- | | | -- | |
SaskEnergy Incorporated | | | | -- | | | 7,000 | | | 7,000 | | | 7,000 | | | -- | |
|
Legislative Branch of Government | | |
Chief Electoral Officer | | | | 807 | | | 1,223 | | | 1,263 | | | 456 | | | 40 | |
Children’s Advocate | | | | 1,295 | | | 1,295 | | | 1,295 | | | -- | | | -- | |
Conflict of Interest Commissioner | | | | 138 | | | 138 | | | 138 | | | -- | | | -- | |
Information and Privacy Commissioner | | | | 599 | | | 599 | | | 599 | | | -- | | | -- | |
Legislative Assembly | | | | 20,267 | | | 20,267 | | | 20,070 | | | (197 | ) | | (197 | ) |
Ombudsman | | | | 1,816 | | | 1,816 | | | 1,816 | | | -- | | | -- | |
Provincial Auditor | | | | 6,063 | | | 6,063 | | | 6,063 | | | -- | | | -- | |
|
|
Operating Expense | | | $ | 7,149,292 | | $ | 7,473,985 | | $ | 7,680,327 | | $ | 531,035 | | $ | 206,342 | |
Debt Servicing | | | | 551,000 | | | 541,000 | | | 541,000 | | | (10,000 | ) | | -- | |
|
Expense | | | $ | 7,700,292 | | $ | 8,014,985 | | $ | 8,221,327 | | $ | 521,035 | | $ | 206,342 | |
|
6 | 3rd Quarter Financial Report / GRF Update |
2006-07 Third Quarter Financial Report
Province of Saskatchewan
General Revenue Fund
Statement of Debt
As at March 31, 2007
| Budget | Mid-Year | 3rd Quarter | Change from
|
---|
| Estimate
| Projection
| Forecast
| Budget
| Mid-Year
|
---|
| (thousands of dollars)
|
---|
Crown Corporation Debt | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Information Services Corporation of Saskatchewan | | | $ | 26,500 | | $ | 26,000 | | $ | 23,401 | | $ | (3,099 | ) | $ | (2,599 | ) |
Investment Saskatchewan Inc. | | | | 11,156 | | | 10,919 | | | 10,919 | | | (237 | ) | | -- | |
Municipal Financing Corporation of Saskatchewan | | | | 12,527 | | | 21,028 | | | 21,027 | | | 8,500 | | | (1 | ) |
Saskatchewan Crop Insurance Corporation | | | | 120,000 | | | 113,000 | | | 115,400 | | | (4,600 | ) | | 2,400 | |
Saskatchewan Housing Corporation | | | | 38,865 | | | 36,943 | | | 36,724 | | | (2,141 | ) | | (219 | ) |
Saskatchewan Opportunities Corporation | | | | 29,800 | | | 25,200 | | | 25,000 | | | (4,800 | ) | | (200 | ) |
Saskatchewan Power Corporation | | | | 2,313,024 | | | 2,228,962 | | | 2,272,112 | | | (40,912 | ) | | 43,150 | |
Saskatchewan Telecommunications Holding Corporation | | | | 474,227 | | | 349,068 | | | 311,131 | | | (163,096 | ) | | (37,937 | ) |
Saskatchewan Water Corporation | | | | 36,961 | | | 36,961 | | | 36,997 | | | 36 | | | 36 | |
SaskEnergy Incorporated | | | | 698,935 | | | 634,214 | | | 634,041 | | | (64,894 | ) | | (173 | ) |
|
Crown Corporation Debt | | | $ | 3,761,995 | | $ | 3,482,295 | | $ | 3,486,752 | | $ | (275,243 | ) | $ | 4,457 | |
Government Debt | | | | 7,151,041 | | | 7,275,207 | | | 7,313,944 | | | 162,903 | | | 38,737 | |
|
Public Debt | | | $ | 10,913,036 | | $ | 10,757,502 | | $ | 10,800,696 | | $ | (112,340 | ) | $ | 43,194 | |
Guaranteed Debt | | | | 47,941 | | | 48,966 | | | 40,972 | | | (6,969 | ) | | (7,994 | ) |
|
Total Debt | | | $ | 10,960,977 | | $ | 10,806,468 | | $ | 10,841,668 | | $ | (119,309 | ) | $ | 35,200 | |
|
|
|
|
Crown Corporation Gross Debt | | | $ | 4,109,569 | | $ | 3,831,969 | | $ | 3,838,070 | | $ | (271,499 | ) | $ | 6,101 | |
Crown Corporation Sinking Funds | | | | (347,574 | ) | | (349,674 | ) | | (351,318 | ) | | (3,744 | ) | | (1,644 | ) |
|
Crown Corporation Public Debt | | | $ | 3,761,995 | | $ | 3,482,295 | | $ | 3,486,752 | | $ | (275,243 | ) | $ | 4,457 | |
Crown Corporation Guaranteed Debt | | | | 921 | | | 520 | | | 520 | | | (401 | ) | | -- | |
|
Crown Corporation Total Debt | | | $ | 3,762,916 | | $ | 3,482,815 | | $ | 3,487,272 | | $ | (275,644 | ) | $ | 4,457 | |
|
|
Government Gross Debt | | | $ | 8,033,434 | | $ | 8,174,465 | | $ | 8,215,706 | | $ | 182,272 | | $ | 41,241 | |
Government Sinking Funds | | | | (882,393 | ) | | (899,258 | ) | | (901,762 | ) | | (19,369 | ) | | (2,504 | ) |
|
Government Public Debt | | | $ | 7,151,041 | | $ | 7,275,207 | | $ | 7,313,944 | | $ | 162,903 | | $ | 38,737 | |
Government Guaranteed Debt | | | | 47,020 | | | 48,446 | | | 40,452 | | | (6,568 | ) | | (7,994 | ) |
|
Government Total Debt | | | $ | 7,198,061 | | $ | 7,323,653 | | $ | 7,354,396 | | $ | 156,335 | | $ | 30,743 | |
|
Total Debt | | | $ | 10,960,977 | | $ | 10,806,468 | | $ | 10,841,668 | | $ | (119,309 | ) | $ | 35,200 | |
|
3rd Quarter Financial Report / GRF Update | 7 |