Overview of the U.S. Economy
According to the third estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the U.S. economy grew in the first quarter of 2018, with real gross domestic product (GDP) increasing at an annual rate of 2.0%, following a fourth quarter 2017 increase of 2.9%. The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, PCE, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment and private inventory investment.3
Forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia predicted, on average, a 3.0% annual real growth rate for the second and third quarters of 2018. The forecasters predicted, on average, that real GDP will grow 2.8% in 2018, 2.7% in 2019, 1.9% in 2020, and 2.0% in 2021. The forecasts for 2019 and 2021 are higher than previous estimates for the same periods.4
Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), rose by 223,000 in May 2018. The unemployment rate in May 2018 was 3.8%. The BLS reported job gains in retail trade, health care, and construction.5
Forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia predicted, on average, that the unemployment rate will be 3.9% in 2018, 3.7% in 2019, 3.9% in 2020, and 4.0% in 2021.6
Inflation
According to the BLS, inflation, as measured by changes in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers(CPI-U), increased 0.2% in May 2018 on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the previous 12 months, the all items index increased 2.8% before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.2% for the twelve-month period ending May 2018. The energy index rose 11.7% over the last year, while the food index increased 1.2%.7
3 | U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter2018 (Third Estimate), June 28, 2018 |
4 | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia,Second Quarter 2018 Survey of Professional Forecasters, May 11, 2018 |
5 | United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,The Employment Situation: May 2018, June 1, 2018 |
6 | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia,Second Quarter 2018 Survey of Professional Forecasters, May 11, 2018 |
7 | United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,Consumer Price Index: May 2018, June 12, 2018 |
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VALUESCOPE | | Appendix B | Page 2 |