Exhibit 99.2
| | |
Investor Update | | Issue Date: July 24, 2014 |
This investor update provides guidance and certain forward looking statements about United Continental Holdings, Inc. (the “Company” or “UAL”). The information in this investor update contains the financial and operational outlook for the Company for third quarter and full year 2014.
Capacity
For third quarter 2014, the Company estimates its consolidated system available seat miles (“ASMs”) to increase between 0.2% and 1.2% compared to the same period in the prior year. The Company estimates its full-year 2014 consolidated system ASMs to be between flat and up 1.0% year-over-year.
Revenue
The Company expects its third-quarter 2014 consolidated passenger revenue per available seat mile (“PRASM”) to increase between 2.0% and 4.0% versus the third quarter of 2013.
Advance Booked Seat Factor (Percentage of Available Seats that are Sold)
Compared to the same period last year, for the next six weeks, mainline domestic advance booked seat factor is down 1.5 points and mainline international advance booked seat factor is up 0.8 points. Mainline Atlantic advance booked seat factor is down 0.9 points, mainline Pacific advance booked seat factor is down 1.2 points and mainline Latin America advance booked seat factor is up 4.6 points. Regional advance booked seat factor is down 2.2 points.
Non-Fuel Expense
For the third quarter 2014, the Company expects consolidated cost per ASM (“CASM”), excluding profit sharing, fuel, third-party business expenses and special charges, to increase 1.0% to 2.0% year-over-year. The Company expects full-year 2014 consolidated CASM, excluding profit sharing, fuel, third-party business expenses and special charges, to increase 1.0% to 2.0% year-over-year.
The Company expects to record approximately $70 million of third-party business expense in the third quarter and approximately $550 million for full year 2014. Corresponding third-party business revenue associated with third-party business activities is recorded in other revenue. As of June 30, 2014, the Company ended its agreement to sell fuel to a third party, which will reduce other revenue and third-party business expense.
Fuel Expense
UAL estimates its consolidated fuel price, including the impact of settled hedges, to be between $3.02 and $3.07 per gallon for the third quarter and between $3.06 and $3.11 for full year 2014. These estimates are based on the July 17, 2014 fuel forward curve.
Non-Operating Expense
The Company estimates non-operating expense to be between $155 million and $185 million for the third quarter and between $660 million and $710 million for full year 2014.
The Company excludes non-cash gains/losses on fuel hedges from its non-operating expense guidance and non-GAAP earnings.
Profit Sharing and Share-Based Compensation
For 2014, the Company will pay approximately 10% of total adjusted earnings as profit sharing to employees for adjusted earnings up to a 6.9% adjusted pre-tax margin and approximately 14% for any adjusted earnings above that amount. Adjusted earnings for the purposes of profit sharing are calculated as GAAP pre-tax earnings, excluding special items, profit sharing expense and share-based compensation program expense.
Share-based compensation expense for the purposes of the profit sharing calculation is estimated to be $59 million year to date through the third quarter 2014 and $80 million for full year 2014.
Capital Expenditures and Scheduled Debt and Capital Lease Payments
The Company expects between $630 million and $680 million of gross capital expenditures in the third quarter and approximately $3.1 billion for full year 2014, including net purchase deposits. UAL’s gross capital expenditures exclude fully reimbursable capital projects.
The Company expects scheduled debt and capital lease payments of approximately $300 million in the third quarter and approximately $1.6 billion for full year 2014, including all pre-payments made year to date.
Pension Expense and Contributions
The Company estimates that its pension expense will be approximately $130 million for full-year 2014. This amount excludes non-cash settlement charges related to lump-sum distributions. The Company expects to make approximately $290 million of cash contributions to its defined benefit pension plans in 2014.
Taxes
UAL currently expects to record minimal cash income taxes in 2014.
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Company Outlook
Third-Quarter and Full-Year 2014 Operational Outlook
| | | | | | | | |
| | Estimated 3Q 2014 | | Year-Over-Year % Change Higher/(Lower) | | Estimated FY 2014 | | Year-Over-Year % Change Higher/(Lower) |
Capacity (Million ASMs) | | | | | | | | |
Mainline Capacity | | | | | | | | |
Domestic | | 27,824 - 28,108 | | (1.9%) - (0.9%) | | | | |
Atlantic | | 13,296 - 13,428 | | 0.8% - 1.8% | | | | |
Pacific | | 10,277 - 10,377 | | 2.6% - 3.6% | | | | |
Latin America | | 5,285 - 5,335 | | 7.1% - 8.1% | | | | |
Total Mainline Capacity | | 56,682 - 57,248 | | 0.3% - 1.3% | | | | |
Regional | | 8,489 - 8,573 | | (0.5%) - 0.5% | | | | |
Consolidated Capacity | | | | | | | | |
Domestic | | 36,037 - 36,403 | | (1.6%) - (0.6%) | | 135,748 - 137,129 | | (1.7%) - (0.7%) |
International | | 29,134 - 29,418 | | 2.5% - 3.5% | | 109,691 - 110,763 | | 2.3% - 3.3% |
Total Consolidated Capacity | | 65,171 - 65,821 | | 0.2% - 1.2% | | 245,439 - 247,892 | | 0.0% - 1.0% |
Traffic (Million RPMs) | | | | | | | | |
Mainline Traffic | | | | | | | | |
Domestic | | | | | | | | |
Atlantic | | | | | | | | |
Pacific | | | | | | | | |
Latin America | | | | |
Total Mainline System Traffic | | Traffic guidance to be provided at a future date | | |
Regional System Traffic | | | | | | | | |
Consolidated System Traffic | | | | | | | | |
Domestic System | | | | | | | | |
International System | | | | | | | | |
Total Consolidated System Traffic | | | | | | | | |
Load Factor | | | | | | | | |
Mainline Load Factor | | | | | | | | |
Domestic | | | | | | | | |
Atlantic | | | | | | | | |
Pacific | | | | | | | | |
Latin America | | | | | | | | |
Total Mainline Load Factor | | Load factor guidance to be provided at a future date | | |
Regional Load Factor | | | | | | | | |
Consolidated Load Factor | | | | | | | | |
Domestic | | | | | | | | |
International | | | | | | | | |
Total Consolidated Load Factor | | | | | | | | |
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Company Outlook
Third-Quarter and Full-Year 2014 Financial Outlook
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| | Estimated 3Q 2014 | | Year-Over-Year % Change Higher/(Lower) | | Estimated FY 2014 | | Year-Over-Year % Change Higher/(Lower) |
Revenue (¢/ASM) | | | | | | | | |
Mainline Passenger Unit Revenue | | 12.80 - 13.05 | | 3.0% - 5.0% | | | | |
Consolidated Passenger Unit Revenue | | 13.99 - 14.26 | | 2.0% - 4.0% | | | | |
Operating Expense1 (¢/ASM) | | | | | | | | |
Mainline Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing & Third-Party Business Expenses | | 13.14 - 13.31 | | (0.6%) - 0.7% | | 13.56 - 13.73 | | (0.7%) - 0.6% |
Consolidated Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing & Third-Party Business Expenses | | 13.96 - 14.13 | | (1.2%) - 0.0% | | 14.44 - 14.62 | | (0.6%) - 0.7% |
Non-Fuel Expense1 (¢/ASM) | | | | | | | | |
Mainline Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing, Fuel & Third-Party Business Expenses | | 8.69 - 8.78 | | 1.8% - 2.8% | | 9.02 - 9.11 | | 0.7% - 1.7% |
Consolidated Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing, Fuel & Third-Party Business Expenses | | 9.20 - 9.29 | | 1.0% - 2.0% | | 9.58 - 9.68 | | 1.0% - 2.0% |
Third-Party Business Expenses ($M) | | $70 | | | | $550 | | |
Select Expense Measures ($M) | | | | | | | | |
Aircraft Rent | | $220 | | | | $890 | | |
Depreciation and Amortization | | $430 | | | | $1,660 | | |
Fuel Expense | | | | | | | | |
Mainline Fuel Consumption (Million Gallons) | | 844 | | | | 3,196 | | |
Consolidated Fuel Consumption (Million Gallons) | | 1,033 | | | | 3,912 | | |
Consolidated Fuel Price Excluding Hedges (Price per Gallon) | | $3.02 - $3.07 | | | | $3.06 - $3.11 | | |
Consolidated Fuel Price Including Settled Hedges (Price per Gallon) | | $3.02 - $3.07 | | | | $3.06 - $3.11 | | |
Non-Operating Expense ($M) | | | | | | | | |
Non-Operating Expense1, 2 | | $155 - $185 | | | | $660 - $710 | | |
Income Taxes | | | | | | | | |
Effective Income Tax Rate | | 0% | | | | 0% | | |
Capital Expenditures | | | | | | | | |
Gross Capital Expenditures incl. Purchase Deposits | | $630M - $680M | | | | ~$3.1B | | |
Scheduled Debt and Capital Lease Payments | | $300M | | | | $1.6B | | |
1. | Excludes special charges |
2. | Excludes non-cash gains/losses on fuel hedges |
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Company Outlook
Fuel Price Sensitivity
As of July 17, 2014, the Company had hedged 26% of its projected fuel requirements for third quarter 2014, 31% for fourth quarter 2014 and 28% for full year 2014. The Company uses a combination of swaps, three-way and four-way collars on aircraft fuel and Brent crude oil.
With the Company’s current portfolio, hedge gains/losses are recorded in both fuel expense and non-operating expense (cash-settled and non-cash). The table below outlines the Company’s estimated cash hedge impacts at various price points relative to the baseline July 17, 2014 fuel forward curve, where Brent crude spot price was $107.89 per barrel.
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Brent Fuel Scenarios* | | Cash Hedge Impact | | 3Q14 | | | 4Q14 | |
| | | | forecast | | | forecast | |
+$40 / Barrel | | Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal) | | $ | 3.99 | | | $ | 3.98 | |
| Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal) | | | 0.09 | | | | 0.10 | |
+$30 / Barrel | | Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal) | | $ | 3.76 | | | $ | 3.74 | |
| Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal) | | | 0.08 | | | | 0.10 | |
+$20 / Barrel | | Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal) | | $ | 3.52 | | | $ | 3.50 | |
| Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal) | | | 0.07 | | | | 0.09 | |
+$10 / Barrel | | Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal) | | $ | 3.28 | | | $ | 3.26 | |
| Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal) | | | 0.04 | | | | 0.06 | |
Current Price ($107.89/bbl) | | Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal) | | $ | 3.04 | | | $ | 3.03 | |
| Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal) | | | 0.00 | | | | 0.00 | |
($10) / Barrel | | Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal) | | $ | 2.80 | | | $ | 2.79 | |
| Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal) | | | (0.02 | ) | | | (0.03 | ) |
($20) / Barrel | | Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal) | | $ | 2.56 | | | $ | 2.55 | |
| Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal) | | | (0.06 | ) | | | (0.10 | ) |
($30) / Barrel | | Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal) | | $ | 2.33 | | | $ | 2.31 | |
| Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal) | | | (0.11 | ) | | | (0.17 | ) |
($40) / Barrel | | Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal) | | $ | 2.09 | | | $ | 2.07 | |
| Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal) | | | (0.16 | ) | | | (0.24 | ) |
* | Projected fuel scenarios represent hypothetical fuel curves parallel to the baseline July 17, 2014 curve and are meant to illustrate the behavior of our fuel hedge portfolio at different commodity price points |
** | Fuel price per gallon excluding hedge impacts, but including taxes and transportation costs |
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Company Outlook
Fleet Plan
As of July 24, 2014, the Company’s fleet plan was as follows:
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| | Mainline Aircraft in Scheduled Service | |
| | YE 2013 | | | 1Q D | | | 2Q D | | | 3Q D | | | 4Q D | | | YE 2014 | | | FY D | |
B747-400 | | | 23 | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | 23 | | | | — | |
B777-200 | | | 74 | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | 74 | | | | — | |
B787-8/9 | | | 8 | | | | 2 | | | | — | | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | | | 14 | | | | 6 | |
B767-300/400 | | | 51 | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | (1 | ) | | | 50 | | | | (1 | ) |
B757-200/300 | | | 131 | | | | (3 | ) | | | (9 | ) | | | (11 | ) | | | (15 | ) | | | 93 | | | | (38 | ) |
B737-700/800/900 | | | 254 | | | | 9 | | | | 10 | | | | 4 | | | | 6 | | | | 283 | | | | 29 | |
A319/A320 | | | 152 | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | 152 | | | | — | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total Mainline Aircraft | | | 693 | | | | 8 | | | | 1 | | | | (5 | ) | | | (8 | ) | | | 689 | | | | (4 | ) |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Regional Aircraft in Scheduled Service | |
| | YE 2013 | | | 1Q D | | | 2Q D | | | 3Q D | | | 4Q D | | | YE 2014 | | | FY D | |
Q400 | | | 28 | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | 28 | | | | — | |
Q300 | | | 5 | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | 5 | | | | — | |
Q200 | | | 16 | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | 16 | | | | — | |
ERJ-145 | | | 277 | | | | — | | | | (18 | ) | | | (10 | ) | | | (10 | ) | | | 239 | | | | (38 | ) |
ERJ-135 | | | 9 | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | (9 | ) | | | — | | | | (9 | ) |
CRJ200 | | | 75 | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | 75 | | | | — | |
CRJ700 | | | 115 | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | 115 | | | | — | |
EMB 120 | | | 9 | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | 9 | | | | — | |
EMB 170 | | | 38 | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | 38 | | | | — | |
EMB 175 | | | — | | | | — | | | | 7 | | | | 12 | | | | 13 | | | | 32 | | | | 32 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total Regional Aircraft | | | 572 | | | | — | | | | (11 | ) | | | 2 | | | | (6 | ) | | | 557 | | | | (15 | ) |
Share Count
These share count charts are based upon several assumptions including market stock price and number of shares outstanding. The number of shares used in the actual earnings per share calculation will likely be different from those set forth below. The share count numbers below do not incorporate any share repurchase activity that may occur during the quarter.
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| | 3Q 2014 |
| (Estimated) |
| | Basic Share Count | | Diluted Share Count | | Interest Add-back |
Net Income | | (in millions) | | (in millions) | | (in $ millions) |
Less than or equal to $0 | | 373 | | 373 | | $— |
$1 million - $43 million | | 373 | | 373 | | — |
$44 million - $72 million | | 373 | | 380 | | 1 |
$73 million - $333 million | | 373 | | 391 | | 3 |
$334 million or greater | | 373 | | 395 | | 7 |
| |
| | Full Year 2014 |
| (Estimated) |
| | Basic Share Count | | Diluted Share Count | | Interest Add-back |
Net Income | | (in millions) | | (in millions) | | (in $ millions) |
Less than or equal to $0 | | 372 | | 372 | | $— |
$1 million - $160 million | | 372 | | 372 | | — |
$161 million - $288 million | | 372 | | 380 | | 3 |
$289 million - $1,334 million | | 372 | | 391 | | 12 |
$1,335 million or greater | | 372 | | 396 | | 27 |
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GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations
UAL evaluates its financial performance utilizing various accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”) and Non-GAAP financial measures, including net income/loss, net earnings/loss per share and CASM, among others. Non-GAAP financial measures are presented because they provide management and investors the ability to measure and monitor UAL’s performance on a consistent basis. CASM is a common metric used in the airline industry to measure an airline’s cost structure and efficiency. Pursuant to SEC Regulation G, UAL has included the following reconciliation of reported Non-GAAP financial measures to comparable financial measures reported on a GAAP basis. UAL believes that excluding fuel costs from certain measures is useful to investors because it provides an additional measure of management’s performance excluding the effects of a significant cost item over which management has limited influence. UAL believes that adjusting for special charges is useful to investors because they are non-recurring charges not indicative of UAL’s ongoing performance. UAL also believes that excluding third-party business expenses, such as maintenance, ground handling and catering services for third parties, fuel sales and non-air mileage redemptions, provides more meaningful disclosure because these expenses are not directly related to UAL’s core business. UAL also believes excluding profit sharing allows investors to better understand and analyze our recurring cost performance and provides a more meaningful comparison of our core operating costs to the airline industry. In addition, UAL believes that excluding non-cash (gains)/losses on fuel hedges from non-operating expense is useful because it allows investors to better understand the impact of settled hedges on a given period’s results.
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| | Estimated 3Q 2014 | | | Estimated FY 2014 | |
| | Low | | | High | | | Low | | | High | |
Mainline Unit Cost (¢/ASM) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Mainline CASM Excluding Profit Sharing | | | 13.26 | | | | 13.43 | | | | 13.82 | | | | 13.99 | |
Special Charges (a) | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Mainline CASM Excluding Profit Sharing & Special Charges (b) | | | 13.26 | | | | 13.43 | | | | 13.82 | | | | 13.99 | |
Less: Third-Party Business Expenses | | | 0.12 | | | | 0.12 | | | | 0.26 | | | | 0.26 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Mainline CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Third-Party Business Expenses & Special Charges (b) | | | 13.14 | | | | 13.31 | | | | 13.56 | | | | 13.73 | |
Less: Fuel Expense (c) | | | 4.45 | | | | 4.53 | | | | 4.54 | | | | 4.62 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Mainline CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Third-Party Business Expenses, Fuel & Special Charges (b) | | | 8.69 | | | | 8.78 | | | | 9.02 | | | | 9.11 | |
| | | | |
| | Low | | | High | | | Low | | | High | |
Consolidated Unit Cost (¢/ASM) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing | | | 14.07 | | | | 14.24 | | | | 14.66 | | | | 14.84 | |
Special Charges (a) | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing & Special Charges (b) | | | 14.07 | | | | 14.24 | | | | 14.66 | | | | 14.84 | |
Less: Third-Party Business Expenses | | | 0.11 | | | | 0.11 | | | | 0.22 | | | | 0.22 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Third-Party Business Expenses & Special Charges (b) | | | 13.96 | | | | 14.13 | | | | 14.44 | | | | 14.62 | |
Less: Fuel Expense (c) | | | 4.76 | | | | 4.84 | | | | 4.86 | | | | 4.94 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Third-Party Business Expenses, Fuel & Special Charges (b) | | | 9.20 | | | | 9.29 | | | | 9.58 | | | | 9.68 | |
| | | | |
| | Low | | | High | | | Low | | | High | |
Non-operating Expense ($M) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Non-operating expense | | $ | 185 | | | $ | 215 | | | $ | 701 | | | $ | 751 | |
Exclude: Non-cash (gains)/losses on fuel hedges | | | 30 | | | | 30 | | | | 41 | | | | 41 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Non-operating expense, adjusted (b) | | $ | 155 | | | $ | 185 | | | $ | 660 | | | $ | 710 | |
(a) | Operating expense per ASM – CASM excludes special charges, the impact of certain primarily non-cash impairment, severance and other similar accounting charges. While the Company anticipates that it will record such special charges throughout the year and may record profit sharing, at this time the Company is unable to provide an estimate of these charges with reasonable certainty. |
(b) | These financial measures provide management and investors the ability to measure and monitor the Company’s performance on a consistent basis. |
(c) | Both the cost and availability of fuel are subject to many economic and political factors and are therefore beyond the Company’s control. |
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Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995:
Certain statements included in this investor update are forward-looking and thus reflect our current expectations and beliefs with respect to certain current and future events and financial performance. Such forward-looking statements are and will be subject to many risks and uncertainties relating to our operations and business environment that may cause actual results to differ materially from any future results expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. Words such as “expects,” “will,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “indicates,” “believes,” “forecast,” “guidance,” “outlook” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Additionally, forward-looking statements include statements that do not relate solely to historical facts, such as statements which identify uncertainties or trends, discuss the possible future effects of current known trends or uncertainties or which indicate that the future effects of known trends or uncertainties cannot be predicted, guaranteed or assured. All forward-looking statements in this report are based upon information available to us on the date of this report. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, changed circumstances or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. Our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to numerous factors including, without limitation, the following: our ability to comply with the terms of our various financing arrangements; the costs and availability of financing; our ability to maintain adequate liquidity; our ability to execute our operational plans, including optimizing our revenue; our ability to control our costs, including realizing benefits from our resource optimization efforts, cost reduction initiatives and fleet replacement programs; our ability to utilize our net operating losses; our ability to attract and retain customers; demand for transportation in the markets in which we operate; an outbreak of a disease that affects travel demand or travel behavior; demand for travel and the impact that global economic conditions have on customer travel patterns; excessive taxation and the inability to offset future taxable income; general economic conditions (including interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, investment or credit market conditions, crude oil prices, costs of aircraft fuel and energy refining capacity in relevant markets); our ability to cost-effectively hedge against increases in the price of aircraft fuel; any potential realized or unrealized gains or losses related to fuel or currency hedging programs; the effects of any hostilities, act of war or terrorist attack; the ability of other air carriers with whom we have alliances or partnerships to provide the services contemplated by the respective arrangements with such carriers; the costs and availability of aviation and other insurance; industry consolidation or changes in airline alliances; competitive pressures on pricing and on demand; our capacity decisions and the capacity decisions of our competitors; U.S. or foreign governmental legislation, regulation and other actions (including open skies agreements and environmental regulations); labor costs; our ability to maintain satisfactory labor relations and the results of the collective bargaining agreement process with our union groups; any disruptions to operations due to any potential actions by our labor groups; weather conditions; the possibility that expected merger synergies will not be realized or will not be realized within the expected time period; and other risks and uncertainties set forth under Item 1A., Risk Factors, of UAL’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, as well as other risks and uncertainties set forth from time to time in the reports we file with the SEC.
For further questions, contact Investor Relations at (872) 825-8610 orinvestorrelations@united.com
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