Moreover, in the event of increased inflation, the Brazilian government may choose to significantly increase the official interest rates. The increase in interest rates may affect Boa Vista’s cash and cash equivalents and securities, which are subject to interest rates. Accordingly, fluctuation in Brazilian interest rates and inflation may adversely affect Boa Vista or EFX Brasil. On the other hand, a significant decrease in interest rates or inflation rates may adversely affect the revenue from Boa Vista’s financial investments.
Any further downgrading of Brazil’s credit rating may have an adverse effect on Boa Vista and EFX Brasil.
Credit ratings affect the perception of risk of investors. Rating agencies regularly review Brazil’s sovereign ratings based on a number of factors, including macroeconomic trends, tax and budgetary conditions, indebtedness metrics and the prospect of changes in any of these factors.
Standard & Poor’s started to review Brazil’s sovereign ratings in September 2015. Subsequently, Brazil lost its investment grade rating, according to the credit rating reviewed by the three main credit rating agencies. Standard & Poor’s downgraded Brazil’s sovereign debt credit again from BB+ to BB, maintaining its negative outlook on the rating, on February 17, 2016. In February 2016, Moody’s downgraded Brazil’s credit rating below investment grade, to Ba2 with a negative outlook, citing the prospect for further deterioration in Brazil’s indebtedness indicators, considering a low economic growth and a challenging political environment. In February 2018, Fitch downgraded Brazil’s sovereign credit rating again to BB-negative, citing structural weaknesses of Brazil’s public finances, high public debt, weak economic growth prospects. As of the date of this prospectus, Brazil’s sovereign rating was BB- (stable), Ba2 (stable) and BB- (stable) by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch, respectively.
As a result of Brazil’s loss of its investment grade rating, and the multiple ensuing downgrades since 2015, the trading price of securities in Brazilian debt and equity markets has been adversely affected.
There can be no assurance that rating agencies will maintain Brazil’s sovereign credit ratings. Any downgrade in Brazil’s sovereign credit ratings may increase the perception of risk of investors and, as a result, may adversely affect the business of Boa Vista and EFX Brasil.
Exchange rate instability may adversely affect the Brazilian economy.
Historically, the exchange rate of the real relative to the U.S. dollar, euro and other strong currencies has fluctuated significantly. The Brazilian government implemented a number of economic plans and used a number of exchange rate policies, including sudden depreciations, periodic mini-depreciations, floating exchange rate market systems, exchange controls and dual exchange rate markets. Since 1999, Brazil has adopted a floating exchange rate system, with interventions of the Central Bank in the purchase or sale of foreign currency. From time to time, significant fluctuations in the exchange rate of the real relative to the U.S. dollar and other foreign currencies occurred.
The real depreciated 47.0% against the U.S. dollar in 2015, appreciated 16.8% in 2016, and depreciated 1.5%, 17.1%, 4.0%, 28.9%, and 7.4% in each of 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. The real appreciated 5.27% against the U.S. dollar in 2022. Boa Vista cannot assure you that the depreciation or appreciation of the real relative to the U.S. dollar and other foreign currencies will not adversely affect Boa Vista.
Exchange rate instability may have a material adverse effect on Boa Vista or EFX Brasil. The real could depreciate or appreciate substantially against the U.S. dollar and other foreign currencies, which could create inflationary pressures in Brazil through general increases in prices and cause increases in interest rates, which may adversely affect the Brazilian economy as a whole and the results of either Boa Vista or EFX Brasil, due to the decrease in consumption, change in consumption habits, increase in its costs and restricted access to international capital markets. Conversely, the appreciation of the real may result in the deterioration of the Brazilian current account and balance of trade, as well as in a decrease in the growth of the GDP from exports. Boa Vista or EFX Brasil may be adversely affected by changes in these foreign exchange policies.
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