[Alcoa Logo] 1 Quarter Earnings Conference April 8, 2013 1 [Alcoa Logo] Exhibit 99.2 st [Alcoa Logo] |
2 Cautionary Statement Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains statements that relate to future events and expectations and as such constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include those containing such words as “anticipates,” “estimates,” “expects,” “forecasts,” “intends,” “outlook,” “plans,” “projects,” “should,” “targets,” “will,” or other words of similar meaning. All statements that reflect Alcoa’s expectations, assumptions, or projections about the future other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, forecasts concerning global demand growth for aluminum, end-market conditions, supply/demand balances, and growth opportunities for aluminum in automotive, aerospace and other applications, trend projections, targeted financial results or operating performance, and statements about Alcoa’s strategies, outlook, and business and financial prospects. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors and are not guarantees of future performance. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include: (a) material adverse changes in aluminum industry conditions, including global supply and demand conditions and fluctuations in London Metal Exchange-based prices for primary aluminum, alumina, and other products, and fluctuations in indexed-based and spot prices for alumina; (b) deterioration in global economic and financial market conditions generally; (c) unfavorable changes in the markets served by Alcoa, including automotive and commercial transportation, aerospace, building and construction, distribution, packaging, defense, and industrial gas turbine; (d) the impact of changes in foreign currency exchange rates on costs and results, particularly the Australian dollar, Brazilian real, Canadian dollar, euro, and Norwegian kroner; (e) increases in energy costs, including electricity, natural gas, and fuel oil, or the unavailability or interruption of energy supplies; (f) increases in the costs of other raw materials, including calcined petroleum coke, caustic soda, and liquid pitch; (g) Alcoa’s inability to achieve the level of revenue growth, cash generation, cost savings, improvement in profitability and margins, fiscal discipline, or strengthening of competitiveness and operations (including moving its alumina refining and aluminum smelting businesses down on the industry cost curves and increasing revenues in its Global Rolled Products and Engineered Products and Solutions segments) anticipated from its restructuring programs and productivity improvement, cash sustainability, and other initiatives; (h) Alcoa's inability to realize expected benefits, in each case as planned and by targeted completion dates, from sales of non-core assets, or from newly constructed, expanded, or acquired facilities, such as the upstream operations in Brazil and the investments in hydropower projects in Brazil, or from international joint ventures, including the joint venture in Saudi Arabia; (i) political, economic, and regulatory risks in the countries in which Alcoa operates or sells products, including unfavorable changes in laws and governmental policies, civil unrest, or other events beyond Alcoa’s control; (j) the outcome of contingencies, including legal proceedings, government investigations, and environmental remediation; (k) the business or financial condition of key customers, suppliers, and business partners; (l) adverse changes in tax rates or benefits; (m) adverse changes in discount rates or investment returns on pension assets; (n) the impact of cyber attacks and potential information technology or data security breaches; and (o) the other risk factors summarized in Alcoa's Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2012 and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Alcoa disclaims any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether in response to new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. Non-GAAP Financial Measures Some of the information included in this presentation is derived from Alcoa’s consolidated financial information but is not presented in Alcoa’s financial statements prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Certain of these data are considered “non-GAAP financial measures” under SEC rules. These non-GAAP financial measures supplement our GAAP disclosures and should not be considered an alternative to the GAAP measure. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and management’s rationale for the use of the non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the Appendix to this presentation and on our website at www.alcoa.com under the “Invest” section. Any reference during the discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA, for which we have provided calculations and reconciliations in the Appendix and on our website. [Alcoa Logo] |
Klaus Kleinfeld Chairman and Chief Executive Officer April 8, 2013 [Alcoa Logo] [Alcoa Logo] |
[Alcoa Logo] Delivering Strong Quarterly Results 4 All segments profitable; Best net income excluding special items since 3Q 2011 Adjusted EBITDA up 16% sequentially and 11% YoY Record profitability in the Downstream Improved Upstream performance YoY despite lower metal price Strong liquidity; $1.6 Billion cash on hand Solid global end market growth; Reaffirm 2013 global aluminum demand growth of 7% [Alcoa Logo] |
William Oplinger Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer 5 April 8, 2013 [Alcoa Logo] [Alcoa Logo] |
Income Statement Summary 6 [Alcoa Logo] $ Millions, except per-share amounts 1Q12 4Q12 1Q13 Sequential Change Revenue $6,006 $5,898 $5,833 ($65) Cost of Goods Sold $5,098 $4,968 $4,847 ($121) COGS % Revenue 84.9% 84.2% 83.1% (1.1 % pts.) Selling, General Administrative, Other $241 $277 $251 ($26) SGA % Revenue 4.0% 4.7% 4.3% (0.4 % pts.) Other Income , Net ($16) ($345) ($27) $318 Restructuring and Other Charges $10 $60 $7 ($53) Effective Tax Rate 28.3% 35.8% 27.4% (8.4 % pts.) Net Income $94 $242 $149 ($93) Net Income Per Diluted Share $0.09 $0.21 $0.13 ($0.08) |
[Alcoa Logo] Restructuring and Other Special Items See appendix for Adjusted Income reconciliation 7 [Alcoa Logo] |
121 64 4 11 Net Income Excluding Restructuring & Other Special Items ($ millions) Profitability increases nearly 90% driven by performance See appendix for Adjusted Income reconciliation 8 4Q 2012 1Q 2013 45 Raw Materials 0 Energy 15 Portfolio Actions Productivity 44 Price /Mix 21 Volume 15 Currency 0 LME Cost Increases / Other Market -$4m Performance +$91m Cost Headwinds -$30m [Alcoa Logo] |
1Q13 Actual and 2Q13 Outlook - EPS 9 Record results for Engineered Products and Solutions See appendix for Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation. * Prior period amounts have been revised to conform to the current period presentation. See appendix for additional information. [Alcoa Logo] $ Millions 1Q 12 4Q 12 1Q 13 Party Revenue 1,390 1,348 1,423 ATOI* 157 140 173 Adjusted EBITDA Margin* 19.4% 18.0% 20.9% rd 3 Quarterly ATOI up $16M year- over- year to record level Record ATOI driven by productivity & Aerospace volume offsetting weakness Non- Residential Construction Commercial Transportation Achieved record adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.9% Generated $19M of productivity savings; improvements achieved by all business units in and $ Millions 1Q 13 $173 Cost Increase $1 Productivity $19 Price / Mix $0 Volume $15 4Q 12 $140 - Aerospace market remains strong European Non- Residential Construction market continues recovery in North America Share gains through innovation continue across all market sectors Productivity improvements to continue ATOI is expected to increase ~5% sequentially to decline ; signs of |
1Q13 Actual and 2Q13 Outlook - GRP Improved sequential performance for Global Rolled Products 10 [Alcoa Logo] Aero & auto demand expected to remain strong Seasonal demand increases in Packaging Pricing pressures continue in European and N.A. Industrials and China markets Productivity improvements to continue Excluding LME and currency, ATOI is expected to increase 15%-20% sequentially 1 st Quarter Results 1 st Quarter Business Highlights 2 nd Quarter Outlook 1 st Quarter Performance Bridge $11 $14 $9 $7 $4 $1 $81 $77 1Q13 Cost Increase Productivity Price/Mix Volume Currency LME 4Q12 $ Millions 1Q 12 4Q 12 1Q 13 3 Party Revenue 1,845 1,771 1,779 ATOI* 102 77 81 Adjusted EBITDA/mt* 447 370 385 Aerospace and auto demand remained strong Higher volumes in Packaging and Auto Price and mix was impacted by weaker pricing Productivity driven by higher utilizations offset by costs related to energy, maintenance, and labor Days working capital improved ~7 days year-over-year $ Millions See appendix for Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation. * Prior period amounts have been revised to conform to the current period presentation. See appendix for additional information. rd |
41% ATOI improvement in the Alumina segment 11 [Alcoa Logo] Raw Materials Energy Prod- uctivity Price /Mix Volume / Fixed Cost Currency LME 4Q 12 1Q 13 Cost Increase $1 $3 $5 $6 $7 $4 $27 $58 $6 $41 +$23m -$6m Market Performance $ Millions 1Q 12 4Q 12 1Q 13 Production (kmt) 4,153 4,079 3,994 3 Party Shipments (kmt) 2,293 2,440 2,457 3 Party Revenue ($ Millions) 775 803 826 ATOI ($ Millions) 35 41 58 1 Quarter Results st 1 st Quarter Business Highlights 2 Quarter Outlook 1 st Quarter Performance Bridge 1Q13 Actual and 2Q13 Outlook - Alumina rd rd rd nd Mining cost increases of $20m in Australia (Myara crusher move) and Suriname Record days working capital of 23 days; ~9 day improvement year-over-year Production lower due to 2 fewer days in the quarter Alumina Price Index and spot pricing continued positive trend Productivity improvements continued Increased costs driven by the Myara crusher move Production increases by 150 kmt Productivity improvements to continue 52% of 3 party shipments on spot or alumina price index with 30 day lag for 2013 |
[Alcoa Logo] Primary Metals performance overcomes cost headwinds 12 1 Quarter Business Highlights st Price/Mix improved as regional premiums rose and value-added product mix strengthened Productivity improvements continued Rockdale outage neared completion Achieved record days working capital of 18.8 days Ahead of schedule startup and cost control of Saudi Arabia JV minimized equity charge 1 Quarter Results st 1 Quarter Performance Bridge st 2 Quarter Outlook nd Pricing to follow 15 day lag to LME Production increases by 15 kmt Power plant outages with $25m impact in Anglesea (4-year overhaul) and Warrick Saudi Arabia JV impact to remain flat Productivity improvements to continue rd rd rd $ Millions market performance $39 $15 $17 $11 $275 $8 $13 $19 $316 $17 $41 Price /Mix & Vol. Rockdale/ Anglesea Cost Increase Energy Portfolio Actions Prod- uctivity 4Q 12 LME 4Q 12 adj. 1Q 13 Tapoco Sale Production (kmt) 951 912 891 Party Shipments (kmt) 771 768 705 Party Revenue ($ Millions) 1,944 1,890 1,758 Party Price ($/MT) 2,433 2,325 2,398 ATOI ($ Millions) 10 316 39 3 3 3 -$19m +$17m 1Q13 Actual and 2Q13 Outlook – Primary Metals 1Q 12 4Q 12 1Q 13 |
Continued sustainable days working capital reductions [Alcoa Logo] 7 days lower 2 days lower 14 days lower 4 days lower 27 days; $1.8 B 7 days lower Days Working Capital since Fourth Quarter 2008 2 days lower 14 days lower 4 days lower 27 days; $1.8 B 43 55 50 48 33 41 44 43 30 39 38 38 27 32 33 33 24 28 See appendix for days working capital reconciliation 13 |
[Alcoa Logo] See appendix for Free Cash Flow, Net Debt and Net Debt-to-Capital reconciliations 1 Quarter Cash Flow Overview 14 Net Income $99 $257 $170 DD&A $369 $363 $361 Change in Working Capital ($289) $536 ($323) Pension Contributions ($213) ($46) ($83) Taxes / Other Adjustments ($202) ($177) ($195) Cash from Operations ($236) $933 ($70) Dividends to Shareholders ($33) ($33) ($33) Change in Debt $357 ($692) $90 Distributions to Noncontrolling Interests ($26) ($24) ($25) Contributions from Noncontrolling Interests $90 $39 $15 Other Financing Activities $6 ($2) $0 Cash from Financing Activities $394 ($712) $47 Capital Expenditures ($270) ($398) ($235) Other Investing Activities ($80) $605 ($50) Cash from Investing Activities ($350) $207 ($285) 1 Quarter 2013 Cash Flow Overview st ($ Millions) 1Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2010 2009 2008 1Q13 2012 2011 7,622 8,338 9,816 7,370 6,968 7,432 34.7% 42.5% 38.7% 34.9% 35.3% 34.8% 762 1,481 1,543 1,939 1,861 1,555 9,165 9,819 10,578 8,925 8,829 9,371 (millions) Debt to Cap Net Debt Cash (305) (39) (506) (440) (22) (186) (90) (742) (409) 535 246 656 164 526 1,005 176 87 761 +201 (millions) Free Cash Flow Debt, Net Debt and Debt-to-Capital % st |
2013 Targets: Key Actions to Execute 2013 Cash Sustainability Program Aggressive targets set to maximize cash in 2013 15 Maintain 30%-35% Debt-to-Capital Manage Growth Capital of $550M Generate Productivity Gains of $750M Target Saudi JV Investment of $350M Overarching 2013 Financial Target Taking the right actions Control Sustaining Capital of $1.0B Positive Free Cash Flow [Alcoa Logo] |
16 [Alcoa Logo] Capital Flows Into Equities from Commodities 2013 Global Aluminum Demand Will Grow at 7% Supply and Demand Tightening On Curtailments Inventories Are Stable, Premiums Remain Strong |
Capital flows into equities and out of commodities 17 Source: Bloomberg, CFTC COT Reports (excl. energy futures) …attracting capital from commodities Net Managed Money Positions ($ billion) Major equity exchanges rally… 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125% S&P 500 Index FTSE 100 NIKKEI ~50% decline in 1Q13 ~20% increase in 1Q13 - 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 [Alcoa Logo] |
[Alcoa Logo] Market fundamentals are stable 18 Market Tightening On Curtailments Inventory is Stable Regional Premiums Remain Strong 2013 Primary Aluminum Consumption (mmt) and Annualized Growth (%) Global Inventories vs. LME Price Over Time $ Supply/Demand analysis See appendix for full scale charts 2013 Global Demand Growth Rate 7% (World ex China 4%) Decline 28 days Global Inventories from the ’09 peak Year on Year Change Europe +35% Japan + 96% Midwest USA +27% Deficit (100) 4Q2012 (200) Deficit Surplus 155 4Q2012 535 Surplus 2013E Alumina Supply/Demand Balance 2013E Aluminum Supply/Demand Balance ‘000 mt China Rest of World 2013 Production (Feb annualized) 41,600 53,700 2013 Production to be added 600 2,400 2013 Capacity to be curtailed (1,000) 0 Imports/(exports) 3,900 (3,900) Total supply 45,100 52,200 Demand (45,100) (52,300) Net Balance 0 (100) Supply Demand Supply Demand ‘000 mt China Rest of World 2013 Production (Feb annualized) 21,330 25,360 2013 Production to be added 2,270 1,190 2013 Capacity to be curtailed Total supply 23,075 26,500 Demand (23,000) (26,420) Net Balance 75 80 (525) (50) Regional Premiums over time Global Aluminum Demand Growth at 7% Producer Japan Port China Incl SRB Off Exchange LME On Warrant Cancelled Warrants LME 3 Mon 1% 8% 6% 5% 9% 11% -2% -1% 4% 4% 5% 7% 7% 6% Asia ex. China Other India Brazil Russia China Europe North America 2012 2013E Other includes Middle East, Latin America ex Brazil, Eastern Europe and Rest of World 49.4 mmt (1) (1) 6% $1,250 $1,450 $1,650 $1,850 $2,050 $2,250 $2,450 $2,650 $2,850 $3,050 $3,250 $ per metric ton Days of Consumption Days of Consumption 108 days LME Price $2,214/MT LME Price $2,686/MT LME Price $1,951/MT Days of Consumption 83 days Days of Consumption 80 days 7 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98 105 14 |
Klaus Kleinfeld Chairman and Chief Executive Officer April 8, 2013 [Alcoa Logo] [Alcoa Logo] |
Source: Alcoa analysis Alcoa End Markets: Current Assessment of 2013 vs. 2012 Growth continues in global end markets 20 [Alcoa Logo] North America China Global Europe - Aerospace Automotive Heavy Truck & Trailer Beverage Can Packaging Commercial Building and Construction Industrial Gas Turbine 9% - 10% sales growth 2% - 3% sales growth 4% - 5% sales growth 3% - 5% airfoil market growth rate 1% - 4% prod growth 2% - 7% prod growth |
[Alcoa Logo] Value add businesses driving 71% of segment profits Alcoa business mix shift and GRP/EPS margins 21 EPS: Continuing to Grow Profitability Business mix shifted toward value add After tax operating income (ATOI) by segment (% of total segment ATOI) 2003 2012 75% 29% 16% 26% 9% 45% GPP GRP EPS 100% 100% GRP: Generating Record Margins 10-YR Average ~ $248/MT 385 380 332 69 83 284 292 276 261 1Q’13 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 Adjusted EBITDA per MT 15% 1Q’13 21% 2012 19% 2011 18% 2010 17% 2009 13% 2008 2007 13% 2006 13% 2005 11% 2004 12% 2003 9% Adjusted EBITDA Margin 25% 71% 2.3x 2003 level 1.5x average 184 321 GPP: Combined Alumina and Primary Metals segments, GRP: Global Rolled Products, EPS: Engineered Products and Solutions. Prior period amounts have been revised to conform to the current period presentation. See appendix for additional information. |
[Alcoa Logo] Aerospace accounts for $3.8B of value add revenue Breakdown of 2012 Alcoa value-add revenue by market ($B) 22 Other 3.8 Aerospace 0.7 Automotive 3.2 Packaging 1.4 Building and Construction 4.1 End Market Highlights $13.2B 11.6% End Market CAGR (2012 - 2015) ~ (at 2012 rates) 8 year backlog of production Alcoa well positioned on both Aluminum and CFRP planes |
Sources: The Airline Monitor February 2013 Vibrant growth projected for the aerospace market 23 Aero market growth: Commercial Jet Deliveries 1 and Value in $B Notes: (1) All figures include both Large Commercial Aircraft & Regional Jets [Alcoa Logo] |
Alcoa Blue Flies From Nose to Tail Wing ribs (plate and extrusions) Wing tips Hydraulic vessels Fuel connectors Torque rods Seat frames Window and door frames Wheels, brakes and torque tubes Fuselage to wing connection Wing box fasteners Engine pylon structure and fasteners Wing spars (forgings and plate) Lower wing skins Wing flap fasteners Wing stringers Wing gear ribs, trunions and support fittings Upper wing skins Crown frames Auxiliary power unit exhaust ducts Vertical stabilizer fasteners Fuselage stringers Fuselage skins Seat tracks Landing gear, bay frames Sleeved fasteners Fan blades Guide vanes Hot section blades and vanes Compressor cases Fuel metering unit Fan hub and compressor frames Bearing housings Current Future More than 90% of all aluminum aerospace alloys have been developed by Alcoa Every Western Commercial aircraft flying today uses Alcoa fasteners Every Western Commercial and military aircraft engine uses Alcoa castings 24 [Alcoa Logo] |
Sources: 1) The Airline Monitor February 2013 Notes: All figures include both Large Commercial Aircraft & Regional Jets. CFRP refers to carbon fiber reinforced plastic Alcoa is well positioned on both Aluminum and CFRP planes Commercial jet deliveries and Alcoa Indexed Revenue by aircraft type 25 [Alcoa Logo] |
Innovation creating long term value for Alcoa Aluminum Lithium Meeting Customer Needs Reduce inspection Improve comfort 20% fuel efficiency improvement Lower capital costs Customer Needs Al-Li Value Proposition Improved corrosion and fatigue properties 2X inspection intervals 5% to 7% lower density 7% higher stiffness Capital costs avoided by using existing Aluminum infrastructure Meets 787 humidity and pressure benchmarks 30%-50% larger windows 26 Key Platforms Drivers: Twin Aisle: Airbus A380 & A350, Boeing 787 Single Aisle: Bombardier CSeries, Comac C919 Regional/Business Jet: Gulfstream G650, Bombardier Global 7000/8000 Projected Al-Li Revenue in $M Al-Li Revenue quadrupling by 2019 +350% = 29% CAGR 2019 $197 2017 $161 2015 $61 2013 $43 [Alcoa Logo] |
[Alcoa Logo] Automotive accounts for $700M of value add revenue Breakdown of 2012 Alcoa value-add revenue by market ($B) 27 Building and Construction 1.4 Packaging 3.2 Automotive 0.7 Aerospace 3.8 Other 4.1 $13.2B End Market Highlights 2-3% End Market CAGR (2012 - 2015) 30-35% CAGR for NA Auto Sheet ( 2012 - 2015 ) 3.6x increase in Auto Sheet revenue from 2012 to 2015 |
Alcoa’s content runs from bumper to bumper Alcoa participation in automotive parts Current Future 28 [Alcoa Logo] |
[Alcoa Logo] Aluminum intensity amplifying automotive market growth Auto industry growth and projected incremental aluminum content Sources: Ducker Worldwide , IHS , Alcoa analysis, *) Extrapolated based on IHS 2020 forecast 29 Growth in Automotive Market… Global light vehicle production (in millions of units) 19 25 31 19 20 23 15 17 18 China Europe North America 2025* 72 2015 62 2012 53 …amplified by increasing Al intensity 136 55 14 2025 2015 2012 North America Aluminum Body Sheet Content Per Vehicle (in lbs) |
[Alcoa Logo] Consumers and regulations drive auto light-weighting 30 Consumers want it US Corporate Average Fuel Economy (MPG) 35.5 2011 27.2 2025 54.5 2016 Regulations demand it 2011 83% 2008 54% % willing to pay for better fuel efficiency Consumers Outpace Regulation US Consumer Buying vs. Regulation miles per gallon 2000 29.7 30.8 50 45 40 35 30 25 0 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 Regulations Consumer Buying Safety benefits Changing body structure from steel to aluminum can reduce stopping distances from 45 mph to zero by up to 7 feet – this can mean the difference between a serious collision and a near-miss NHTSA 1) says: Lightweighting conserves fuel, maintains footprint, and may improve the car’s structural strength and handling 1) National Highway Traffic Safety Admin. Source: Ducker Worldwide , Consumer Reports, The Aluminum Association , NHTSA 1) September 17, 2012, Alcoa Analysis |
[Alcoa Logo] Alcoa is capturing auto sheet opportunity Source: Ducker Worldwide , IHS , Alcoa analysis 31 $300M expansion to capture auto demand Supported by secured contracts On time and on budget First coil by December 2013 Auto Sheet Driving Growth 580 250 200 160 2015 2014 2013 2012 Delivers ~4x Revenue Increase Projected Alcoa Auto Sheet Revenues ($M) Auto Treatment Line – Davenport, IA North America Market Demand – Auto Aluminum (kMT) 2025 4,410 3,320 1,090 2015 3,080 2,660 420 2012 2,400 2,300 100 Other Auto Aluminum (Castings, etc.) Auto Sheet 4x increase in auto sheet already locked into designs of 2015 models 3.6x Positioned to Capture Demand Actual Projected |
[Alcoa Logo] We continue to focus on coming down the cost curves Alumina and Aluminum cost curves and Alcoa targets 32 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Cumulative Production (000MT) Alcoa 2010 30 Percentile Alumina Cost Curve Alcoa 2015 23 Percentile Refining Cost Curve Holding Steady $/mt Alcoa 2012 30 Percentile Smelting Cost Curve Down 4% Points 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 Cumulative Production (000MT) Alcoa 2015 41 Percentile Alcoa 2010 51 Percentile Aluminum Cost Curve $/mt Alcoa 2012 47 Percentile -10 points 7 points - th th th st st rd |
[Alcoa Logo] Phase 2 Phase 1 Phase 1 and 2 Construction Progressing As Planned Mine Refinery First hot coil 4Q 2013 Auto hot coil 4Q 2014 First alumina 4Q 2014 Lowest cost refinery 2% point reduction on the refining cost curve On track to provide bauxite in 2014 33 Smelter First Hot Metal December Full operating capacity in 2014 Lowest cost smelting facility 2% point reduction on the smelting cost curve 74% 46% Rolling Mill 12 , 2012 Complete Complete th |
[Alcoa Logo] Executing on our targets to deliver long term value 34 All segments achieved solid financial performance Strong commitment to cash generation Capturing opportunities in growing markets |
[Alcoa Logo] |
[Alcoa Logo] Kelly Pasterick Director, Investor Relations Alcoa 390 Park Avenue New York, NY 10022-4608 Telephone: (212) 836-2674 www.alcoa.com Additional Information 36 |
[Alcoa Logo] Annual Sensitivity Summary Currency Annual Net Income Sensitivity +/- $100/MT = +/- $240 million LME Aluminum Annual Net Income Sensitivity Australian $ +/- $11 million per 0.01 change in USD / AUD Brazilian $ +/- $ 3 million per 0.01 change in BRL / USD Euro € +/- $ 2 million per 0.01 change in USD / EUR Canadian $ +/- $ 5 million per 0.01 change in CAD / USD Norwegian Kroner +/- $ 5 million per 0.10 change in NOK / USD 37 |
[Alcoa Logo] Revenue Change by Market 4% 3% 0% 9% 7% 2% (2%) (39%) 3% (7%) 6% 0% (1%) (11%) (4%) 17% (5%) 1% 7% (10%) 1Q’13 Third-Party Revenue Sequential Change Year-Over-Year Change 38 17% 3% 6% 5% 9% 2% 13% 1% 14% 30% Aerospace Automotive B&C Comm. Transport Industrial Products IGT Packaging Distribution/Other* Alumina Primary Metals |
[Alcoa Logo] Reconciliation of ATOI to Consolidated Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Alcoa 39 * On January 1, 2013, management revised the inventory-costing method used by certain locations within the Global Rolled Products and Engineered Products and Solutions segments in order to improve internal consistency and enhance industry comparability. This revision does not impact the consolidated results of Alcoa. Segment information for all prior periods presented was revised to reflect this change. (in millions) 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012 1Q13 Total segment ATOI* $ 304 $ 255 $ 224 $ 574 $ 1,357 $ 351 Unallocated amounts (net of tax): Impact of LIFO – 19 (7) 8 20 (2) Interest expense (80) (80) (81) (78) (319) (75) Noncontrolling interests (5) 17 32 (15) 29 (21) Corporate expense (64) (69) (62) (87) (282) (67) Restructuring and other charges (7) (10) (2) (56) (75) (5) Other* (54) (134) (247) (104) (539) (32) Consolidated net income (loss) attributable to Alcoa $ 94 $ (2) $ (143) $ 242 $ 191 $ 149 |
[Alcoa Logo] Reconciliation of Adjusted Income 40 (in millions, except per-share amounts) Income Diluted EPS Quarter ended Quarter ended March 31, 2012 December 31, 2012 March 31, 2013 March 31, 2012 December 31, 2012 March 31, 2013 Net income attributable to Alcoa $ 94 $ 242 $ 149 $ 0.09 $ 0.21 $ 0.13 Restructuring and other charges 7 54 5 Discrete tax items* – (58) (19) Other special items** 4 (174) (14) Net income attributable to Alcoa – as adjusted $ 105 $ 64 $ 121 0.10 0.06 0.11 * Discrete tax items include the following: Net income attributable to Alcoa – as adjusted is a non-GAAP financial measure. Management believes that this measure is meaningful to investors because management reviews the operating results of Alcoa excluding the impacts of restructuring and other charges, discrete tax items, and other special items (collectively, “special items”). There can be no assurances that additional special items will not occur in future periods. To compensate for this limitation, management believes that it is appropriate to consider both Net income attributable to Alcoa determined under GAAP as well as Net income attributable to Alcoa – as adjusted. ** Other special items include the following: for the quarter ended March 31, 2013, a benefit related to the reinstatement under the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 of two tax provisions that will be applied in 2013 to Alcoa’s U.S income tax return for calendar year 2012 ($19); and for the quarter ended December 31, 2012, a benefit related to the interim period treatment of losses in jurisdictions for which no tax benefit was recognized during the nine months ended September 30, 2012 ($39); a benefit for a change in the legal structure of an investment ($13); and a net benefit for other miscellaneous items ($6). for the quarter ended March 31, 2013, a net favorable change in certain mark-to-market energy derivative contracts ($9) and a net insurance recovery related to the March 2012 cast house fire at the Massena, NY location ($5); for the quarter ended December 31, 2012, a gain on the sale of the Tapoco Hydroelectric Project ($161: $275 is included in the Primary Metals segment and $(114) is included in Corporate); a net favorable change in certain mark-to-market energy derivative contracts ($12); interest income on an escrow deposit ($8); and uninsured losses related to fire damage to the cast house at the Massena, NY location ($7); and for the quarter ended March 31, 2012, a net unfavorable change in certain mark-to-market energy derivative contracts. • • • • • |
[Alcoa Logo] Reconciliation of Alcoa Adjusted EBITDA 41 ($ in millions) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q12 4Q12 1Q13 Net income (loss) attributable to Alcoa $ 938 $ 1,310 $ 1,233 $ 2,248 $ 2,564 $ (74) $ (1,151) $ 254 $ 611 $ 191 $ 94 $ 242 $ 149 Add: Net income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests 212 233 259 436 365 221 61 138 194 (29) 5 15 21 Cumulative effect of accounting changes 47 – 2 – – – – – – – – – – Loss (income) from discontinued operations – 27 50 (22) 250 303 166 8 3 – – – – Provision (benefit) for income taxes 367 546 464 853 1,623 342 (574) 148 255 162 39 143 64 Other (income) expenses, net (278) (266) (478) (236) (1,920) (59) (161) 5 (87) (341) (16) (345) (27) Interest expense 314 271 339 384 401 407 470 494 524 490 123 120 115 Restructuring and other charges (28) (29) 266 507 268 939 237 207 281 87 10 60 7 Provision for depreciation, depletion, and amortization 1,110 1,142 1,227 1,252 1,244 1,234 1,311 1,450 1,479 1,460 369 362 361 Adjusted EBITDA $ 2,682 $ 3,234 $ 3,362 $ 5,422 $ 4,795 $ 3,313 $ 359 $ 2,704 $ 3,260 $ 2,020 $ 624 $ 597 $ 690 Sales $18,879 $21,370 $24,149 $28,950 $29,280 $26,901 $18,439 $21,013 $24,951 $23,700 $ 6,006 $ 5,898 $ 5,833 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 14% 15% 14% 19% 16% 12% 2% 13% 13% 9% 10% 10% 12% Alcoa’s definition of Adjusted EBITDA (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is net margin plus an add-back for depreciation, depletion, and amortization. Net margin is equivalent to Sales minus the following items: Cost of goods sold; Selling, general administrative, and other expenses; Research and development expenses; and Provision for depreciation, depletion, and amortization. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. Management believes that this measure is meaningful to investors because Adjusted EBITDA provides additional information with respect to Alcoa’s operating performance and the Company’s ability to meet its financial obligations. The Adjusted EBITDA presented may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies. |
[Alcoa Logo] Reconciliation of Alumina Adjusted EBITDA 42 ($ in millions, except per metric ton amounts) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q12 4Q12 1Q13 After-tax operating income (ATOI) $ 415 $ 632 $ 682 $ 1,050 $ 956 $ 727 $ 112 $ 301 $ 607 $ 90 $ 35 $ 41 $ 58 Add: Depreciation, depletion, and amortization 147 153 172 192 267 268 292 406 444 455 114 107 109 Equity (income) loss – (1) – 2 (1) (7) (8) (10) (25) (5) (1) (1) (1) Income taxes 161 240 246 428 340 277 (22) 60 179 (27) (1) 2 14 Other (55) (46) (8) (6) 2 (26) (92) (5) (44) (8) – (4) (3) Adjusted EBITDA $ 668 $ 978 $ 1,092 $ 1,666 $ 1,564 $ 1,239 $ 282 $ 752 $ 1,161 $ 505 $ 147 $ 145 $ 177 Production (thousand metric tons) (kmt) 13,841 14,343 14,598 15,128 15,084 15,256 14,265 15,922 16,486 16,342 4,153 4,079 3,994 Adjusted EBITDA / Production ($ per metric ton) $ 48 $ 68 $ 75 $ 110 $ 104 $ 81 $ 20 $ 47 $ 70 $ 31 $ 35 $ 36 $ 44 Alcoa’s definition of Adjusted EBITDA (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is net margin plus an add-back for depreciation, depletion, and amortization. Net margin is equivalent to Sales minus the following items: Cost of goods sold; Selling, general administrative, and other expenses; Research and development expenses; and Provision for depreciation, depletion, and amortization. The Other line in the table above includes gains/losses on asset sales and other nonoperating items. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. Management believes that this measure is meaningful to investors because Adjusted EBITDA provides additional information with respect to Alcoa’s operating performance and the Company’s ability to meet its financial obligations. The Adjusted EBITDA presented may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies. |
[Alcoa Logo] Reconciliation of Primary Metals Adjusted EBITDA 43 ($ in millions, except per metric ton amounts)` 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q12 4Q12 1Q13 After-tax operating income (ATOI) $ 657 $ 808 $ 822 $ 1,760 $ 1,445 $ 931 $ (612) $ 488 $ 481 $ 309 $ 10 $ 316 $ 39 Add: Depreciation, depletion, and amortization 310 326 368 395 410 503 560 571 556 532 135 134 135 Equity (income) loss (55) (58) 12 (82) (57) (2) 26 (1) 7 27 2 11 9 Income taxes 256 314 307 726 542 172 (365) 96 92 106 (13) 157 1 Other 12 20 (96) (13) (27) (32) (176) (7) 2 (422) – (423) (1) Adjusted EBITDA $ 1,180 $ 1,410 $ 1,413 $ 2,786 $ 2,313 $ 1,572 $ (567) $ 1,147 $ 1,138 $ 552 $ 134 $ 195 $ 183 Production (thousand metric tons) (kmt) 3,508 3,376 3,554 3,552 3,693 4,007 3,564 3,586 3,775 3,742 951 912 891 Adjusted EBITDA / Production ($ per metric ton) $ 336 $ 418 $ 398 $ 784 $ 626 $ 392 $ (159) $ 320 $ 301 $ 148 $ 141 $ 214 $ 205 Alcoa’s definition of Adjusted EBITDA (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is net margin plus an add-back for depreciation, depletion, and amortization. Net margin is equivalent to Sales minus the following items: Cost of goods sold; Selling, general administrative, and other expenses; Research and development expenses; and Provision for depreciation, depletion, and amortization. The Other line in the table above includes gains/losses on asset sales and other nonoperating items. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. Management believes that this measure is meaningful to investors because Adjusted EBITDA provides additional information with respect to Alcoa’s operating performance and the Company’s ability to meet its financial obligations. The Adjusted EBITDA presented may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies. |
[Alcoa Logo] Reconciliation of Global Rolled Products Adjusted EBITDA 44 ($ in millions, except per metric ton amounts) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q12 4Q12 1Q13 After-tax operating income (ATOI)* $ 232 $ 290 $ 300 $ 317 $ 151 $ (41) $ (106) $ 241 $ 260 $ 346 $ 102 $ 77 $ 81 Add: Depreciation, depletion, and amortization 190 200 220 223 227 216 227 238 237 229 57 58 57 Equity loss 1 1 – 2 – – – – 3 6 1 2 4 Income taxes* 77 97 135 113 77 14 12 103 98 159 51 35 39 Other (5) 1 1 20 1 6 (2) 1 1 (2) – – (1) Adjusted EBITDA* $ 495 $ 589 $ 656 $ 675 $ 456 $ 195 $ 131 $ 583 $ 599 $ 738 $ 211 $ 172 $ 180 Total shipments (thousand metric tons) (kmt) 1,893 2,136 2,250 2,376 2,482 2,361 1,888 1,755 1,866 1,943 472 465 468 Adjusted EBITDA / Total shipments ($ per metric ton)* $ 261 $ 276 $ 292 $ 284 $ 184 $ 83 $ 69 $ 332 $ 321 $ 380 $ 447 $ 370 $ 385 Alcoa’s definition of Adjusted EBITDA (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is net margin plus an add-back for depreciation, depletion, and amortization. Net margin is equivalent to Sales minus the following items: Cost of goods sold; Selling, general administrative, and other expenses; Research and development expenses; and Provision for depreciation, depletion, and amortization. The Other line in the table above includes gains/losses on asset sales and other nonoperating items. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. Management believes that this measure is meaningful to investors because Adjusted EBITDA provides additional information with respect to Alcoa’s operating performance and the Company’s ability to meet its financial obligations. The Adjusted EBITDA presented may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies. * On January 1, 2013, management revised the inventory-costing method used by certain locations within the Global Rolled Products segment in order to improve internal consistency and enhance industry comparability. This revision does not impact the consolidated results of Alcoa. Segment information for all prior periods presented was revised to reflect this change. |
[Alcoa Logo] Reconciliation of Engineered Products and Solutions Adjusted EBITDA 45 ($ in millions) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q12 4Q12 1Q13 After-tax operating income (ATOI)* $ 126 $ 161 $ 276 $ 382 $ 423 $ 522 $ 311 $ 419 $ 537 $ 612 $ 157 $ 140 $ 173 Add: Depreciation, depletion, and amortization 166 168 160 152 163 165 177 154 158 158 40 40 40 Equity loss (income) – – – 6 – – (2) (2) (1) – – – – Income taxes* 57 70 120 164 184 215 138 198 258 296 73 71 84 Other* 11 106 (11) (2) (7) 2 1 – (1) (8) – (9) – Adjusted EBITDA* $ 360 $ 505 $ 545 $ 702 $ 763 $ 904 $ 625 $ 769 $ 951 $ 1,058 $ 270 $ 242 $ 297 Third-party sales $ 3,905 $ 4,283 $ 4,773 $ 5,428 $ 5,834 $ 6,199 $ 4,689 $ 4,584 $ 5,345 $ 5,525 $ 1,390 $ 1,348 $ 1,423 Adjusted EBITDA Margin* 9% 12% 11% 13% 13% 15% 13% 17% 18% 19% 19% 18% 21% * On January 1, 2013, management revised the inventory-costing method used by certain locations within the Engineered Products and Solutions segment in order to improve internal consistency and enhance industry comparability. This revision does not impact the consolidated results of Alcoa. Segment information for all prior periods presented was revised to reflect this change. Alcoa’s definition of Adjusted EBITDA (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is net margin plus an add-back for depreciation, depletion, and amortization. Net margin is equivalent to Sales minus the following items: Cost of goods sold; Selling, general administrative, and other expenses; Research and development expenses; and Provision for depreciation, depletion, and amortization. The Other line in the table above includes gains/losses on asset sales and other nonoperating items. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. Management believes that this measure is meaningful to investors because Adjusted EBITDA provides additional information with respect to Alcoa’s operating performance and the Company’s ability to meet its financial obligations. The Adjusted EBITDA presented may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies. |
[Alcoa Logo] Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow 46 (in millions) Quarter ended March 31, 2011 June 30, 2011 September 30, 2011 December 31, 2011 March 31, 2012 June 30, 2012 September 30, 2012 December 31, 2012 March 31, 2013 Cash from operations $ (236) $ 798 $ 489 $ 1,142 $ (236) $ 537 $ 263 $ 933 $ (70) Capital expenditures (204) (272) (325) (486) (270) (291) (302) (398) (235) Free cash flow $ (440) $ 526 $ 164 $ 656 $ (506) $ 246 $ (39) $ 535 $ (305) Free Cash Flow is a non-GAAP financial measure. Management believes that this measure is meaningful to investors because management reviews cash flows generated from operations after taking into consideration capital expenditures due to the fact that these expenditures are considered necessary to maintain and expand Alcoa’s asset base and are expected to generate future cash flows from operations. It is important to note that Free Cash Flow does not represent the residual cash flow available for discretionary expenditures since other non-discretionary expenditures, such as mandatory debt service requirements, are not deducted from the measure. |
[Alcoa Logo] Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow, con’t 47 (in millions) Quarter ended December 31, 2008 March 31, 2009 June 30, 2009 September 30, 2009 December 31, 2009 March 31, 2010 June 30, 2010 September 30, 2010 December 31, 2010 Cash from operations $ 608 $ (271) $ 328 $ 184 $ 1,124 $ 199 $ 300 $ 392 $ 1,370 Capital expenditures (1,017) (471) (418) (370) (363) (221) (213) (216) (365) Free cash flow $ (409) $ (742) $ (90) $ (186) $ 761 $ (22) $ 87 $ 176 $ 1,005 Free Cash Flow is a non-GAAP financial measure. Management believes that this measure is meaningful to investors because management reviews cash flows generated from operations after taking into consideration capital expenditures due to the fact that these expenditures are considered necessary to maintain and expand Alcoa’s asset base and are expected to generate future cash flows from operations. It is important to note that Free Cash Flow does not represent the residual cash flow available for discretionary expenditures since other non-discretionary expenditures, such as mandatory debt service requirements, are not deducted from the measure. |
[Alcoa Logo] Days Working Capital ($ in millions) Quarter ended March 31, 2012 June 30, 2012 September 30, 2012 December 31, 2012 March 31, 2013 Receivables from customers, less allowances $ 1,526 $ 1,575 $ 1,619 $ 1,399 $ 1,680 Add: Deferred purchase price receivable * 254 141 81 18 14 Receivables from customers, less allowances, as adjusted 1,780 1,716 1,700 1,417 1,694 Add: Inventories 3,097 3,051 2,973 2,825 2,982 Less: Accounts payable, trade 2,734 2,633 2,590 2,702 2,860 Working Capital $ 2,143 $ 2,134 $ 2,083 $ 1,540 $ 1,816 Sales $ 6,006 $ 5,963 $ 5,833 $ 5,898 $ 5,833 Days Working Capital 32 33 33 24 28 Days Working Capital = Working Capital divided by (Sales/number of days in the quarter). * The deferred purchase price receivable relates to an arrangement to sell certain customer receivables to a financial institution on a recurring basis. Alcoa is adding back this receivable for the purposes of the Days Working Capital calculation. 48 |
[Alcoa Logo] Reconciliation of Net Debt 49 (in millions) December 31, March 31, 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Short-term borrowings $ 478 $ 176 $ 92 $ 62 $ 53 $ 51 Commercial paper 1,535 – – 224 – 104 Long-term debt due within one year 56 669 231 445 465 1,025 Long-term debt, less amount due within one year 8,509 8,974 8,842 8,640 8,311 7,745 Total debt 10,578 9,819 9,165 9,371 8,829 8,925 Less: Cash and cash equivalents 762 1,481 1,543 1,939 1,861 1,555 Net debt $ 9,816 $ 8,338 $ 7,622 $ 7,432 $ 6,968 $ 7,370 Net debt is a non-GAAP financial measure. Management believes that this measure is meaningful to investors because management assesses Alcoa’s leverage position after factoring in available cash that could be used to repay outstanding debt. |
[Alcoa Logo] Reconciliation of Net Debt-to-Capital 50 ($ in millions) December 31, 2012 March 31, 2013 Debt-to-Capital Cash and Cash Equivalents Net Debt-to- Capital Debt-to-Capital Cash and Cash Equivalents Net Debt-to- Capital Total Debt Short-term borrowings $ 53 $ 51 Commercial paper – 104 Long-term debt due within one year 465 1,025 Long-term debt, less amount due within one year 8,311 7,745 Numerator $ 8,829 $ 1,861 $ 6,968 $ 8,925 $ 1,555 $ 7,370 Total Capital Total debt $ 8,829 $ 8,925 Total equity 16,523 16,774 Denominator $ 25,352 $ 1,861 $ 23,491 $ 25,699 $ 1,555 $ 24,144 Ratio 34.8% 29.7% 34.7% 30.5% Net debt-to-capital is a non-GAAP financial measure. Management believes that this measure is meaningful to investors because management assesses Alcoa’s leverage position after factoring in available cash that could be used to repay outstanding debt. |
[Alcoa Logo] Composition of Upstream Production Costs 51 Refining Cost Structure Smelting Cost Structure 1 Natural gas information corresponds to Point Comfort, as Australia is priced on a rolling 16 quarter average Input Cost Inventory flow Pricing convention Annual ATOI Sensitivity Fuel oil 1 – 2 months Prior month $4m per $1/bbl Natural gas N/A Spot 1 $16m per $1/GJ 1 Caustic soda 3 - 6 months Spot & semi- annual $9m per $10/DMT Input Cost Inventory flow Pricing convention Annual ATOI Sensitivity Coke 1 - 2 months Spot, quarterly & semi-annual $9m per $10/MT Pitch 1 - 2 months Spot, quarterly & semi-annual $2.5m per $10/MT Alumina 32% Carbon 15% Power 25% Materials 6% Conversion 22% Fuel Oil 14% Natural gas 10% Caustic 11% Bauxite 23% Conversion 42% |
[Alcoa Logo] Global Aluminum Demand Growth at 7% 52 2013 Primary Aluminum Consumption (mmt), Annualized Growth (%) and Change (% pts) by Region (1) Other includes Middle East, Latin America ex Brazil, Eastern Europe and Rest of World 4.0% 5% 6% -1% -2% 11% 9% 5% 4% 7% 4% 6% 7% 6% 8% 1% 3.8 2.0 1.0 1.0 China Europe North America Asia ex. China Other (1) India Brazil Russia 23.0 6.5 6.2 5.9 2013 Global Demand 49.4 mmt 2013 versus 2012 Source: Alcoa analysis 2013 Global Demand Growth Rate 7% (World ex China 4%) 2012 2013E |
53 2013E Aluminum Supply/Demand Balance Supply Demand Surplus 155 ‘000 mt China Rest of World 2013 Production (Feb annualized) 21,330 25,360 2013 Production to be added 2,270 1,190 2013 Capacity to be curtailed (525) (50) Total supply 23,075 26,500 Demand (23,000) (26,420) Net Balance 75 80 2013E Alumina Supply/Demand Balance ‘000 mt China Rest of World 2013 Production (Feb annualized) 41,600 53,700 2013 Production to be added 600 2,400 2013 Capacity to be curtailed (1,000) 0 Imports/(exports) 3,900 (3,900) Total supply 45,100 52,200 Demand (45,100) (52,300) Net Balance 0 (100) Supply Demand Deficit (100) Source: Alcoa analysis, Brook Hunt, CRU, CNIA, NBS, Chinese Customs Market Tightening On Curtailments 4Q2012 Deficit (200) 4Q2012 Surplus 535 [Alcoa Logo] |
54 Global Inventories vs. LME Price Over Time $ Source: Alcoa analysis, LME, SHFE, CRU, IAI, Marubeni Corp. Inventory is Stable [Alcoa Logo] |
[Alcoa Logo] Regional Premiums Remain strong 55 Regional Premiums over time $ per metric ton $ per metric ton Region End of Q1’13 Europe $283/MT Japan $249/MT Midwest USA $253/MT Year on Year Change Europe +35% Japan +96% Midwest USA +27% Source: Month end pricing - Platts Metals Week and Metal Bulletin $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 |