expectations and there were lower than expected COVID-19-related expenditures, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio decreased to 68.0%. In light of higher than expected revenues and lower than expected expenditure, as a result of the COVID-19 recovery, a cumulative budget surplus of approximately NIS 7.5 billion (0.4% of GDP) was measured in the last 12 months from December 2021 to November 2022. The budget for 2022, based on preliminary estimates, is expected to conclude with a surplus of 0.4-0.7% of GDP. Based on previous years’ results, a surplus is not common in Israel.The volume of gross central government debt, as of September 30, 2022, was NIS 1,037 billion (approximately $293 billion).
In November 2022, legislative elections were held in Israel to elect the 25th Knesset, following the dissolution of the previous governing coalition. Following the elections, President Isaac Herzog selected former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, head of the political party Likud, to form a coalition government. On December 29, 2022, the State of Israel’s new government was formed. One of the first orders of business for the government is to develop a budget and economic plan for the fiscal year 2023, which will include setting the deficit target. Until such a budget is passed, Israeli law states that the government shall operate utilizing a continuing budget.
Inflation and Monetary Policy
The average annual inflation rate over the last decade (2011 to 2021) was approximately 0.8%, slightly below the Government’s target range of 1%-3%. The changes in the Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) reflect a rise in prices of commodities, housing and agricultural products in Israel. Measured at year-end, the CPI growth rate was negative in 2016 amounting to -0.2%, returned to positive values in 2017 at 0.4%, grew by 0.8% in 2018 and 0.6% in 2019 and decreased by 0.7% in 2020. In 2021, the CPI increased by 1.5%, which was within the target of the BoI for the first time since 2013. Between November 2021 and November 2022, the CPI increased by 5.3% as a result of the deteriorating global economic conditions.
In 2021, the BoI’s interest rate remained unchanged and stood at 0.1%. Due to rising inflation, the BoI has increased the interest rate seven times during the period from January 1, 2022 to the date hereof to 3.75%, with the most recent interest rate increase announced on January 2, 2023. The real interest rate (nominal interest rate less inflation expectations) averaged -0.2%, -0.9%, -0.8%, 0.1% and -1.8% in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. As of December 31, 2022, the real interest rate was 0.78%.
Labor Market
Prior to the outbreak of COVID-19, the labor force participation rate, which is the labor force as a percentage of the population over the age of 15, averaged 63.0% in January 2020 to February 2020, slightly lower than the annual average of 63.5% in 2019. Unemployment averaged 3.5% in January 2020 to February 2020, slightly lower than the annual average of 3.8% in 2019.
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, unemployment increased significantly as a result of lockdowns and other restrictions to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Total unemployment averaged 5.0% in 2021, with an additional 2.9% absent from work due to reasons related to COVID-19, such as unpaid leave, and an additional 2.1% that left the labor force due to reasons related to COVID-19, such as dismissal or workplace closure from March 2020. As of November 2022, the unemployment rate stood at 4.1%, with an additional 0.4% absent from work due to reasons related to COVID-19, and an additional 0.6% that left the labor force due to reasons related to COVID-19.
Capital Markets
The BoI, together with other governmental authorities and regulators, monitors Israeli banks and financial institutions on an ongoing basis, supervising the banking system’s conditions and operations as a whole. In addition, the BoI cooperates with the Ministry of Finance and the Israel Securities Authority to achieve comprehensive regulation and supervision of Israel’s financial markets, to ensure coordination among the various entities in the financial sector and to set policies and measures that will be implemented and enforced with respect to such entities.
According to the BoI’s estimates, the value of the public’s total financial assets, which excludes assets of the Government, the BoI, nonresidents’ investments, commercial banks and mortgage banks, reached NIS 5,052.3 billion at the end of 2021, and grew by 14.7%, 7.9% and 11.2% in 2021, 2020 and 2019, respectively.