Graduate of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Economics and Accounting (1994), CPA (from 1997), MBA from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem (1998).
Table of Contents
Chapter | | Page |
| | 1 |
| | 3 |
| a. | Operational structure | 4 |
| b. | Valuation methodology | 10 |
| c. | Business environment | 13 |
| | 18 |
| a. | Packaging paper and recycling | 18 |
| b. | Office supplies marketing | 25 |
| c. | Printing and writing paper | 26 |
| d. | Packaging and carton products | 33 |
| e. | Other assets and liabilities | 38 |
| f. | Financial analysis | 41 |
| g. | Valuation | 49 |
| | 62 |
| a. | HOGLA operations | 64 |
| b. | Financial analysis | 77 |
| c. | Valuation | 85 |
Appendices
Appendix A - | Information about Company securities traded on the TEL AVIV Stock Exchange. |
Appendix B - | Valuation by GIZA-SINGER-EVEN Ltd. of CARMEL Container Systems Ltd. |
Appendix C - | Examining the need for impairment of the packaging paper operations, according to IAS 36 |
Appendix D - | Further information pursuant to Securities Regulations (Periodic and immediate reports), 1970 |
The value of HADERA PAPER for its shareholders as of December 31, 2010 is estimated at between NIS 1,657-1,869 million, as follows:
| | Holding stake | | | High value | | | Low value | |
| | | | | NIS in millions | |
Enterprise valuation (EV) - HADERA PAPER, consolidated* | | | | | | 1,460 | | | | 1,332 | |
Value of excess real estate | | | | | | 74 | | | | 74 | |
Value of holding stake in CARMEL | | | 100.0 | % | | | 160 | | | | 160 | |
Value of holding stake in HADERA PAPER PRINTING | | | 75.0 | % | | | 157 | | | | 157 | |
Liability with respect to MBP | | | | | | | (32 | ) | | | (32 | ) |
Value of holding stake in FRENKEL | | | 28.9 | % | | | 19 | | | | 19 | |
Net financial debt | | | | | | | (922 | ) | | | (922 | ) |
Valuation of HADERA PAPER, consolidated, net | | | | | | | 917 | | | | 789 | |
Value of holding stake in HOGLA | | | 49.9 | % | | | 977 | | | | 887 | |
Value of equity, HADERA PAPER | | | | | | | 1,894 | | | | 1,676 | |
Value of stock options to employees | | | | | | | (25 | ) | | | (19 | ) |
Value of HADERA PAPER to shareholders | | | | | | | 1,869 | | | | 1,657 | |
* Excluding HADERA PAPER PRINTING, CARMEL and FRENKEL.
HADERA PAPER was valuated using the Discounted Cash Flow method (DCF); for valuation methodology see section 2b above. above.
This valuation of HADERA PAPER is higher by 21% on average than the Company's average market capitalization over the six months preceding the valuation date, and is higher by 89% on average than the Company's shareholder equity as of December 31, 2010, as follows:
| | Market cap | | | Difference between value in model and market cap | |
| | | | High value | | | Low value | | | Average | |
| | NIS in millions | | | NIS in millions | | | | | | | |
Company value in valuation | | | | | | 1,869 | | | | 1,657 | | | | 1,763 | |
Market cap* of equity during six months prior to effective date | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Highest | | | 1,616 | | | | 16 | % | | | 3 | % | | | 9 | % |
Lowest | | | 1,314 | | | | 42 | % | | | 26 | % | | | 34 | % |
Average | | | 1,454 | | | | 29 | % | | | 14 | % | | | 21 | % |
Market cap* as of December 31, 2010 | | | 1,505 | | | | 24 | % | | | 10 | % | | | 17 | % |
Shareholders' equity on balance sheet as of December 31, 2010 | | | 930 | | | | 101 | % | | | 78 | % | | | 90 | % |
Value in transaction as of September 30, 2009** | | | 1,147 | | | | 63 | % | | | 44 | % | | | 54 | % |
Value in valuation as of June 30, 2009** | | | 1,144 | | | | 63 | % | | | 45 | % | | | 54 | % |
* | Value derived from price of Company share on TEL AVIV Stock Exchange. |
** | Value in acquisition of 21.45% of Company shares by CII from Discount Investments was determined taking into account the valuation as of June 30, 2009 which was prepared by myself for negotiations between the parties. |
For further information pursuant to Securities Regulations (Periodic and immediate reports), 1970, see Appendix D.
Between June 30, 2009 and December 31, 2010, the Company's market capitalization increased by 71%; for evolution of share price and trading volume, see Appendix A.
Group company operations are primarily based on the state of Israel's economy, population size, change in living standards and in business activity, change over the past two years in sectors in which the Group operates and change in the Company's production capacity and product mix in the packaging segment.
In the course of the last year, the change was recorded in the economic atmosphere and in investor expectations following the peak of the economic crisis in the years 2008-2009. The rise in stock market indices and in commodity prices in 2010, alongside initial indications of growth in real demand and in the demand for new employees, may serve as a harbinger of the initial emergence from the current economic crisis. Nevertheless, the emergence from the crisis will be slow and will most likely last for several years, during which certain aftershocks may be felt in the global economy.
The most significant event at the company in 2010 was the operation of Machine 8, that effectively doubles the output capacity of packaging paper, as of June 1, 2010. In parallel to the operation of the machine, surplus demand for recycled packaging paper was created on the European market. As a result of the surplus demand for such products, average paper prices overseas and on the local market increased, as paper exports grew by approximately 245% in financial terms in relation to the exports in 2009. The development of new recycled products and primarily substitutes for virgin Kraft liner, serve to diversify the company's product mix, while opening up new market segments and rendering it possible - subject to economic feasibility considerations - to expand the future output capacity using an old machine (Machine 1), without material investments in equipment and new machines.
The impact of the moderating economic crisis on the Hogla business results was relatively slight. The principal raw materials used by Hogla grew more expensive this year, while in parallel Hogla found it difficult to raise the prices of its products due to escalating competition, primarily versus its the central competitor, Procter & Gamble, in the diaper and feminine hygiene sectors. The strengthening local currency in Israel (NIS) vis-à-vis other currencies is harming the competitive capabilities of Hogla in Israel due to the fact that Procter & Gamble products are produced overseas.
In 2010, the company acquired 25.1% of the shares of Hadera Paper Printing and completed a complete tender offer in the United States for Carmel shares.
We have been commissioned by HADERA PAPER Ltd. (hereinafter: "the Company" or "HADERA PAPER") and by CII and Investment Ltd. (hereinafter: "CII") to provide an economic valuation of shareholders' equity of HADERA PAPER as of December 31, 2010. The objective of this valuation is to review the Company valuation and composition there of, pursuant to provisions of international accounting standard IAS 36 "Asset Impairment" for the purpose of IFRS-based financial reporting.
CII' holding stake in Company shares as of December 31, 2010 was 59.1%. On September 30, 2010, CII acquired 21.45% of the Company shares from Discount Investments Ltd. (hereinafter: "DIC") at a Company value of NIS 1,147 million.
| a. | Operational structure |
HADERA PAPER operates via subsidiaries and associates (hereinafter: "the Group") in the following segments*:
Operating segment | | Revenues | | | Operating income | | | Net Income | | | Holding | |
| | 2009 | | | 2010 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | | | stake | |
| | NIS in millions | | | NIS in millions | | | NIS in millions | | | | | | | |
Packaging paper and recycling | | | 339 | | | | 511 | | | | (3 | ) | | | 50 | | | | (6 | ) | | | 17 | | | | 100 | % |
Office equipment marketing | | | 151 | | | | 179 | | | | 4 | | | | 5 | | | | | | | | | 100 | % |
Packaging and corrugated cardboard | | | 484 | | | | 510 | | | | 15 | | | | 7 | | | | 10 | | | | 3 | | | | **100 | % |
Writing and printing paper | | | 669 | | | | 729 | | | | 38 | | | | 31 | | | | 28 | | | | 22 | | | | 75 | % |
Consumables | | | 1,727 | | | | 1,698 | | | | 194 | | | | 187 | | | | 151 | | | | 145 | | | | 49.9 | % |
* Data in this table is for 100% of segment operations, without reversal of inter-company operations.
** Reflects the holding stake in CARMEL.
Packaging paper and recycling
In this segment, the Company produces recycled packaging paper via HADERA PAPER - Packaging Paper & Recycling Ltd. (formerly: HADERA PAPER Industries Ltd. and before that: AIPM Paper Industries (1995) Ltd.") (hereinafter: "Packaging"). Recycled paper is primarily used as raw material in production of corrugated cardboard packaging. Paper waste is collected for recycling by AMNIR Recycling Industries Ltd. (hereinafter: "AMNIR"). This segment also includes operations of HADERA PAPER - Development & Infrastructure Ltd. (hereinafter: "HADERA PAPER Infrastructure"), which provides infrastructure, energy and other services to Group companies. All companies in this segment are wholly-owned by HADERA PAPER.
Office equipment marketing
Graffiti Office Equipment and Paper Marketing Ltd. (hereinafter: "Graffiti"), which is wholly-owned by HADERA PAPER, is engaged in import, marketing and sale of office equipment, primarily to business- and institutional customers.
Writing & printing paper
HADERA PAPER owns, as from December 31, 2010, 75% of shares of HADERA PAPER - Printing & Writing Paper Ltd. (formerly: "MONDI HADERA PAPER Ltd.") (hereinafter: "HADERA PAPER PRINTING"), which is engaged in production, marketing and sale of writing- and printing paper. On December 31, 2010, the Company acquired 25.1% of shares of HADERA PAPER PRINTING from MONDI Business Paper Ltd. (hereinafter: "MBP"). After conclusion of this transaction, MBP owns 25% of HADERA PAPER PRINTING; for details see section 3c below.
Packaging and carton products
In this segment, the Company is engaged in production, marketing and sale of corrugated cardboard packaging and sheets via CARMEL Container Systems Ltd. (hereinafter: "CARMEL") and FRENKEL CD Ltd. (hereinafter: "FRENKEL"). Through October 4, 2010, the Company owned 89.3% of CARMEL shares. Upon conclusion of a complete buy-back offer for the remainder CARMEL shares, as from October 4, 2010 HADERA PAPER owns 100% of CARMEL shares. Hadera Paper holds - directly and indirectly - approximately 57.8% of the Frenkel shares while the Company and CARMEL each hold 28.9% of the shares.
Consumables
HADERA PAPER owns 49.9% of HOGLA-Kimberly Ltd. (hereinafter: "HOGLA"), which is engaged in production, marketing and sale in the domestic market of disposable paper products (toilet paper, tissue paper), diapers and wet wipes, female hygiene products, cleaning products etc. 50.1% of HOGLA shares are owned by Kimberly Clark Corp. (hereinafter: "KC").
HOGLA wholly-owns a Turkey-resident company, KIMBERLY-CLARK TUKETIM MALLARI SANAYIVE TICARET (hereinafter: "KCTR"), which is engaged in production, marketing and sale of diapers and female hygiene products in Turkey. KCTR is the sole representative of KC in Turkey.
Inter-company operations
| - | Purchase of goods and services from Group companies |
Operations of the Company, its subsidiaries and investees (hereinafter jointly: "Group companies") is vertically- and horizontally integrated, and in the normal course of business, Group companies contract the leasing of assets and purchase of goods and services from other Group companies. These are contracted at market terms and conditions.
| - | Contracting between HOGLA and HADERA PAPER with interested parties |
HOGLA receives from KC R&D services, procurement services, marketing knowledge etc. HOGLA receives from HADERA PAPER various services, including land leases, energy center services, IT and other services.
HADERA PAPER PRINTING receives from MBP procurement services of cellulose and other raw materials via MBP's procurement department. HADERA PAPER PRINTING receives from HADERA PAPER various services, including land leases, energy center services, IT and other services.
| - | Construction of new logistics center |
In 2008, HADERA PAPER entered into a contract with GAV-YAM Land Ltd.1 for leasing of a dedicated logistics center (hereinafter: "the new logistics center"). The logistics center in MODI'IN covers a built area of 21 thousand m2 over land with an area of 74.5 thousand m2. In the final quarter of 2010, the logistics operations of HADERA PAPER PRINTING and of AMNIR were relocated to the new logistics center, and in the second half of 2011, Graffiti is expected to relocate to the new logistics center.
1 A public company controlled by DIC.
Classification of the major holdings of HADERA PAPER by major operating sector is as follows:
Packaging paper and recycling
Office equipment
marketing
Writing and
printing paper
Packaging and
carton products
HADER PAPER1
HADERA
PAPER
PRINTING
CARMEL
AMNIR
GRAFITTI
PACKAGING
FRENKEL
100%
375%
100%
100%
2100%
Consum-
ables
HOGLA
KCTR
49.9%
100%
28.9%
28.9%
| 1 | This holding structure only includes the major companies. There are other active companies, wholly owned by some of the aforementioned companies. |
| 2 | As from October 4, 2010, see section 3d below. |
| 3 | As from December 31, 2010, see section 3c below. |
2 | Due to the fact that control over Hadera Paper Printing was acquired on December 31, 2010, the above consolidated financial statements of the company include the business results of Hadera Paper Packaging based on equity value, while the assets and liabilities of Hadera Paper Printing are consolidated as at the date of the report. The financial statements that serve as the basis for the valuation of the company operations (EV) in Chapter 3 below, present the results and the investment in Hadera Paper Printing, Carmel and Frenkel on the basis of equity value, as stated in Section 1.3, below. |
Below is a summary of consolidated financial statements of the Company2:
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in Millions | |
Revenues | | | 530 | | | | 584 | | | | 674 | | | | 892 | | | | 1,121 | |
Cost of Revenues | | | 419 | | | | 441 | | | | 542 | | | | 766 | | | | 945 | |
Gross income | | | 111 | | | | 142 | | | | 131 | | | | 126 | | | | 176 | |
Selling and marketing expenses | | | 31 | | | | 31 | | | | 46 | | | | 72 | | | | 87 | |
General and administrative expenses | | | 30 | | | | 36 | | | | 55 | | | | 59 | | | | 60 | |
Other revenues (expenses) | | | 37 | | | | (5 | ) | | | 5 | | | | 20 | | | | 33 | |
Operating income | | | 88 | | | | 70 | | | | 35 | | | | 15 | | | | 62 | |
Financing expenses | | | 31 | | | | 21 | | | | 15 | | | | 18 | | | | 45 | |
Income Before Taxes | | | 57 | | | | 49 | | | | 20 | | | | (3 | ) | | | 17 | |
Tax expense (benefit) | | | 17 | | | | 18 | | | | 4 | | | | (7 | ) | | | (3 | ) |
After-tax income of Company and subsidiaries | | | 40 | | | | 31 | | | | 16 | | | | 4 | | | | 20 | |
Share of net income (loss) of associates | | | (27 | ) | | | 1 | | | | 51 | | | | 87 | | | | 81 | |
Net income (loss) | | | 13 | | | | 32 | | | | 68 | | | | 91 | | | | 101 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Change in revenues | | | 9.9 | % | | | 10.1 | % | | | 15.4 | % | | | 32.4 | % | | | 25.7 | % |
Gross margin | | | 21.0 | % | | | 24.4 | % | | | 19.5 | % | | | 14.1 | % | | | 15.7 | % |
Operating margin | | | 16.6 | % | | | 12.0 | % | | | 5.2 | % | | | 1.7 | % | | | 5.5 | % |
Net margin | | | 2.4 | % | | | 5.4 | % | | | 10.0 | % | | | 10.2 | % | | | 9.0 | % |
EBITDA | | | 22.6 | % | | | 18.2 | % | | | 14.1 | % | | | 10.5 | % | | | 14.5 | % |
Effective tax rate | | | 29.5 | % | | | 37.4 | % | | | 18.6 | % | | | 233.3 | % | | | (17.6 | )% |
| | December 31, 2009 | | | December 31, 2010 | | | | December 31, 2009 | | | December 31, 2010 | |
| | NIS in Millions | | | | NIS in Millions | |
Cash and designated deposits | | | 154 | | | | 121 | | Short-term credit from banks | | | 132 | | | | 145 | |
Trade receivables | | | 324 | | | | 565 | | Current maturities of debentures and long-term borrowing | | | 150 | | | | 176 | |
Other accounts receivable | | | 99 | | | | 57 | | Trade payables | | | 182 | | | | 341 | |
Inventory | | | 176 | | | | 344 | | Accounts payable with respect to investment in Machine 8 | | | 74 | | | | 29 | |
| | | | | | | | | Others | | | 137 | | | | 219 | |
Total current assets | | | 753 | | | | 1,087 | | Total current liabilities | | | 675 | | | | 910 | |
Investment in affiliated companies | | | 341 | | | | 237 | | Deferred taxes on income | | | 30 | | | | 45 | |
Deferred taxes on income | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | Long-term borrowing net of current maturities | | | 226 | | | | 251 | |
Investment property and leasing fees | | | 30 | | | | 25 | | Debentures | | | 472 | | | | 562 | |
Intangible and other assets | | | 28 | | | | 38 | | Liabilities with respect to employees, net | | | 15 | | | | 19 | |
| | | | | | | | | Liability on account of MBP option | | | 12 | | | | 32 | |
Total long-term investments | | | 401 | | | | 302 | | Total long-term liabilities | | | 755 | | | | 909 | |
| | | | | | | | | Minority interest | | | 26 | | | | 24 | |
Fixed assets, net | | | 1,134 | | | | 1,384 | | Shareholders' equity | | | 832 | | | | 930 | |
Total assets | | | 2,288 | | | | 2,773 | | Total shareholders’ equity and liabilities | | | 2,288 | | | | 2,773 | |
HADERA PAPER has no specified policy with regard to dividend distribution. Since 2007, the Company has not distributed any dividends to shareholders. The Company's distributable earnings as of December 31, 2010 amounted to NIS 506 million.
The Company’s securities are listed for trading on the TEL AVIV Stock Exchange and on the AMEX.
| b. | Valuation methodology |
The Company valuation was achieved using the discounted cash flow method (DCF), which I believe to be the most appropriate method for valuation of the Company and investees there of; the following valuation methods have been applied:
Operating segment / asset | | Company | | Valuation method |
Packaging paper and recycling | | PACKAGING, AMNIR etc. | | DCF |
Office equipment marketing | | Graffiti | | DCF |
Consumables | | HOGLA | | DCF |
Writing & printing paper | | HADERA PAPER PRINTING | | Value in transaction |
Packaging and corrugated cardboard | | CARMEL | | Independent valuation |
Packaging and corrugated cardboard | | FRENKEL | | Carrying amount of investment |
Real estate not used for operations | | HADERA PAPER | | Value in transaction, historical cost |
Liability with respect to HADERA PAPER PRINTING | | HADERA PAPER | | Independent valuation |
Employee stock options | | HADERA PAPER | | Black & Scholes |
Discounted Cash Flow method (DCF)
The Discounted Cash Flow method (DCF) assumes that the value of the company to its shareholders is the company's enterprise value (EV) less net financial debt as of the valuation date.
The enterprise value (EV) is determined by discounting free cash flows from normal operations, using the company's weighted average capital cost (WACC). Free cash flows (FCF) are derived from the detailed business forecast for a specified period - in this opinion a business plan was created for 8 years: The years 2011-2017 and the representative year. The representative year in the forecast serves for calculation of the value of the long term operations (residual value).
Free cash flows (FCF) are derived from after-tax operating income after adjustment for depreciation, investment and changes in working capital. We assume that cash flows are received in the middle of each year, on average.
The Weighted Average Cost of capital (WACC) is calculated as follows:
Where:
| D | - | Estimated value of net financial debt; |
| E | - | Estimated equity value. |
The equity cost (Ke) is determined based on the CAPM model, as follows:
Where:
| Rm-Rf | - | Market risk premium for share which is part of the market portfolio; |
| | - | Beta, coefficiency coordinate of share returns and market portfolio returns. |
Taxation in Israel
This valuation assumes that in 2011-2016, the corporate tax would be reduced, pursuant to the Economic Streamlining Act (Legislation Amendments for Implementing the 2009-2010 Economic Plan), 2009 which was enacted in July 2009. The act stipulates a reduction in corporate tax rate, from 26% in 2009 to 18% in 2016.
The group companies do not possess a valid benefit program, other than accelerated depreciation at immaterial sums and other than accelerated depreciation of the investment in Machine 8 over the course of three years, as stated in Section 3.a.(3), below. For the purpose of this valuation, we assume, based on past experience, that the effective tax rate over the forecast period would be similar to the statutory tax rate, other than the benefit inherent in the accelerated depreciation of Machine 8. Following below are the depreciation rates that served in the valuation:
| | 2011 | | | 2012 | | | 2013 | | | 2014 | | | 2015 | | | 2016 | | | 2017 | | | 2018 | | | Typical year | |
Effective tax rate in valuation | | | 24.0% | | | | 23.0% | | | | 22.0% | | | | 21.0% | | | | 20.0% | | | | 18.0% | | | | 18.0% | | | | 18.0% | | | | 18.0% | |
Overseas taxation and taxation of value of holding in foreign entity
KCTR is a Turkey-resident company wholly owned by HOGLA. Starting in 2006, a corporate tax rate of 20% applies in Turkey, and dividend distributions to Israeli companies are subject to 10% tax withholding. Carry-forward tax losses in Turkey may be offset against income only over a 5-year term. In 2010, KCTR received demand from Tax Authorities in Turkey concerning payment of back taxes, for details see Section 4.b.(1), below.
Investment by Israeli companies in foreign entities, unlike investment by Israeli companies in Israeli entities, is subject to additional taxation, in the form of a 25% tax on dividends received from overseas. Usually, a credit may be applied for dividend tax paid overseas, such that the total tax liability, in Israel and overseas, shall not exceed 25% (assuming that the dividend tax rate overseas is not higher than 25%). In valuations, it is customary to account for excess tax with respect to investment by Israeli companies in foreign entities.
Due to our estimate that the value of HOGLA's holding stake in KCTR does not materially differ from the carrying amount of investment in KCTR on HOGLA's financial statements, we assumed that taxation of the value of holding in a foreign entity is non-material in this case.
| c. | The Business Environment |
| | This valuation was performed during a very challenging period, making it difficult to develop forecasts and estimates of growth rates and profit margins for the sectors. The difficulty stems from the rapid changes and upheavals in the leading economies, including the loss of stability of assets which for generations were considered the cornerstone of the global economy (the US dollar, European government bonds, commodities, etc), dramatic changes in the cost of capital, inflating public debt, doubts on the future of the Euro bloc, political instability in North African and Middle Eastern countries, etc. |
| | The current crisis broke in late 2007, amid soaring prices of commodities such as oil, wheat and corn and demonstrations were held across the globe, driven by the escalating food prices. This began as a financial crisis, triggered the US sub-prime mortgage market, the collapse of which led to huge write-offs in the balance sheets of global financial institutions. In 2008, the majority of the leading financial institutions needed massive capital injections from governments/central banks in order to survive and maintain regular business activity. Despite government bailout plans, in the US alone more than 330 banks collapsed during 2007-2010, while between July 2004 and February 2007 no bank closed its doors in the US. |
| | At the same time, central banks in most Western countries took measures to solve the business and consumer credit crisis. The main steps to alleviate the credit crunch included rapid interest rate cuts and expanding credit supply to financial institutions. As a result, the availability of credit in the markets increased and financing costs for borrowers decreased. |
The crisis, which began in the financial markets, expanded into all sectors of the economy, fueling unemployment and pushing down demand. Amid the crisis, the value of financial assets eroded considerably, while the price drops across stock markets culminated in the first half of 2009. As indicated by the S&P 500 Index graph, in the first quarter of 2009 the index was 50% below its peak in late 2007. Since the index bottomed out in 2007, investors' expectations reversed as the S&P 500 rose 85% from its lowest point. From the date of the last Hadera paper valuation, which was carried out on June 30, 2009, the TA-25 Index rose 54%. The graph below shows the development of the TA-25 Index in the last five years:
| | In 2010 economic indicators seemed to suggest that the global economic crisis was coming to an end. These signs included relatively sharp price gains in global stock markets, interest rate hikes by the central banks of Australia and Canada, indicators of declining unemployment in the US, etc. |
Investors' VIX-Fear Index, which measures the implied volatility in trading of S&P 500 futures on the Chicago Board Options Exchange, fell by one third in the last year and a half. The index peaked at more than 70 points during 2008 but later traded around 30 points in mid-2009. In late 2010 the index fell below 20 points, to its pre-economic crisis levels (10-20 points).
The warning signs at the end of 2010 included, among others, an all-time-high public debt in the US and in other countries, financial woes in the Euro bloc, including a bailout plan offered to some of the Euro countries, soaring unemployment in Europe and lack of government stability in Mediterranean countries.
Forecasts by the International Monetary Fund point to 2011-2012 as years of stability, after the negative growth of the years 2008-2009 was curbed in 2010. Below are the global GDP estimates published by the IMF in January 2011:
The low interest rates in the US and other Western countries were first perceived as temporary, but as the crisis progressed, central banks, led by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) postponed their planned rate hikes. Given the enormity of the public debt, which creates inflationary pressures, raising interest rates will become inevitable in the next few years. The pace of rate increase will be affected by the pace of improvement in the economy and the price indices, but it seems that the interest rate hike will be slower than expectations during the height of the crisis.
In Israel
The global economic crisis had limited repercussions on the Israeli economy. The local stock market reacted sharply to the global crisis, with the TA-25 falling more than 50% in November 2008 from its peak in late 2007. Since the market bottomed out in the last quarter of 2008 and until the end of 2010 the TA-25 index soared 125%, buttressed by economic news that Israel's economy was hit far less than other Western countries. Since the date of the last Hadera Paper valuation, which was carried out on June 30, 2009, the TA-25 Index soared by 54%. The graph below shows the development of TA-25 over the last five years:
Unlike most Western countries, whose real estate markets were also hit by the crisis, Israel recorded relatively sharp gains in property prices. The reasons, inter alia, include a consistently higher demand over supply of residential real estate, the low interest rate and competition between banks over lenient mortgage terms.
The main impact on the economy during the crisis period was the shekel's appreciation against major currencies, especially the US dollar. A small economy, open to free capital movements, with exports being a crucial component of domestic activity, the shekel's appreciation can hurt Israel's competitive status and employment. However, unemployment in Israel is amongst the lowest in the world and at the end of 2010 came at 6.6%, compared to 9.6% in the US and 10% in the Euro bloc.
Over the last two years the Bank of Israel adopted a policy of gradual interest rate hike in order to cool the soaring equity and real estate markets and in the last few months accelerated the pace of rate increase. Naturally, the risk may raise the value of the shekel, thereby hurting the local industry somewhat restricts the Bank of Israel's freedom of action. Below is a development of the Prime interest rate3:
The increase in the Prime interest rate has not yet been reflected in the long-term real interest rate, probably due to inflation expectations in the next few years. A study of the annual structure of the yield-to-maturity of CPI-linked bonds at a fixed interest rate (Sagi and Galil) shows that in each of the years 2007-2010 (except for 2008) the interest rate curve has fallen, all along the curve. At the end of 2010, the yield-to maturity for a period longer than 25 years for CPI-linked government bonds fell to 2.7%, as follows:
3 The Prime interest rate is derived from the Bank of Israel's interest to financial institutions and is used to set the price of unlinked credit at a floating interest rate.
The Bank of Israel's forecast for GDP growth in the next few years points to stability in the growth pace: GDP is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2011 compared to an estimated growth of 4.5% in 2010 and 0.8% in 2009, as follows:
Source: "Israel and the global economy", taken from a lecture by the Bank of Israel's Governor, January 31, 2011
For the purposes of this valuation it was assumed that in the next few years the slow improvement in the global economy will continue, while Israel will maintain a relatively higher growth pace. It was further assumed that despite nominal interest rate hikes in the years ahead, there will not be any significant change in the real interest rate environment due to inflation expectations. |
| The Company operates through wholly-controlled companies in two operating segments4: the packaging paper and recycling segment and the office supplies marketing segment, as follows: |
| a. | Packaging paper and recycling |
| The following is a summary of the business results of the packaging paper and recycling segment: |
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in million | |
Revenues* | | | 412 | | | | 465 | | | | 407 | | | | 339 | | | | 511 | |
Operating profit | | | 50 | | | | 71 | | | | 39 | | | | (3 | ) | | | 50 | |
Rate of change in revenues | | | 10.5 | % | | | 13.0 | % | | | (12.5 | )% | | | (16.6 | )% | | | 50.7 | % |
Operating profit margin | | | 12.2 | % | | | 15.3 | % | | | 9.6 | % | | | (0.9 | )% | | | 9.8 | % |
* Including inter-company sales, in 2010 excluding business results in respect of Machine No. 8 during its testing period | |
| (1) | The business environment |
| Hadera Paper is the single manufacturer in Israel of recycled packaging paper made of waste paper and paperboard. Packaging paper consumers in Israel are companies engaged in the manufacture of corrugated board containers and packaging for every sector of the economy. Demand for packaging paper is ultimately dependent on the level of economy activity in agriculture, the food industry and other industries. In fact, the demand for these products stems from domestic and overseas demand for agricultural produce and other consumer goods manufactured in Israel. |
The supply of packaging paper in Israel is driven by domestic production by Hadera Paper and overseas production. Packaging paper is usually imported by manufacturers of corrugated board containers and packaging and includes imports of virgin paper and recycled paper. Packaging paper imports grew in the years 2008-2009 due to excess supply of this paper in Europe. The economic recovery in 2010 created a shortage in packaging paper in Europe, which diminished imports on the one hand and allowed Hadera Paper to scale up their overseas exports, on the other hand.
In the Company's estimation, in 2010 the domestic market grew 3% per annum in quantitative terms. The company's sales to the domestic market rose in 2010 by 40% in quantitative terms from 93,000 tons in 2009 to 129,000 tons in 2010.
4 The following description and analysis of the Company relate to its business activity excluding the operation of Hadera Paper Printing, Carmel and Frankel, the value of the Company's holding therein has been determined separately. For a description of Hadera Paper Printing see section 3c below; for a description of Carmel and Frankel, see section 3d below.
Hadera Paper enjoys the structured advantages of a domestic supplier of packaging paper, which is preferable to imports from the point of view of the customer (saving in transportation costs, availability of local inventory and service) and works to increase its market share in Israel, especially with the manufacture of new products, as specified below:
Excess demand for recycled packaging paper overseas in 2010 allowed the Company to increase its exports from NIS 57 million in 2009 to NIS 197 million5 in 2010. This increase in sales symbolizes the dramatic change in the field of packaging paper since the height of the economic crisis in 2008-2009. During these years, packaging paper was imported to Israel at particularly low prices, exports contracted and this hurt the Company's profits. In January 2009 the Company even filed a complaint with the Commissioner of Trade Levies (Anti-Dumping Restrictions) in the Ministry of Industry and Trade regarding imports of packaging papers at dumping prices from several European countries. After examining this complaint, the Commissioner of Trade Levies decided to launch an investigation at the end of which it imposed a temporary levy on imports of packaging paper from specific countries in Europe. In August 2010, the antitrust supervisor announced that the advisory committee regarding levies and dumping had recommended to impose a levy for a limited period and that the minister of industry trade and employment had received the recommendation. However, following the refusal of the ministry of finance to approve the levy, no dumping levy was imposed on the import of brown paper products.
The Company is a monopoly in the manufacture and marketing of paper in cylinders and sheets as this term is defined in the Restrictive Trade Practices Law, 1988 (hereinafter – "Antitrust Law"). In 1989 the Company was declared a monopoly in this area by the Antitrust Commissioner and in 1998 this declaration was partially cancelled in connection with the manufacture and marketing of writing and printing papers in cylinders and sheets (the core operation of Hadera Paper Printing). Except for the provisions of the antitrust law, no special instructions were issued to the Company by the Antitrust Commissioner in relation to its monopoly status. The Company is working to cancel the monopoly declaration.
The collection of the main raw material in the manufacture of packaging paper – waste paper and paperboard – is carried out through Amnir. With extensive experience in the field of recycling, in the last few years Amnir expanded its collection capacity and takes steps to identify new waste sources including the import of waste paper to Israel in order to meet the needs of packaging paper production. With the operation of Machine 8, about 78% of the waste paper sold by Amnir is used for the manufacture of packaging paper while only 22% of the waste is sold to external customers, mainly for the production of tissue paper.
Amnir's competitors in the recycling market are: KMM Recycling Enterprises Ltd, Tal-El Collection and Recycling Ltd as well as other rivals that usually focus on a certain geographic area. Amnir's share of the waste paper and paperboard market is estimated by the Company at 61%.
5 About NIS 160 million net of sales during the testing period of Machine no. 8.
In 2007, the Knesset approved an amendment (No. 9) to the Maintenance of Cleanliness Law, 2007 (hereinafter – "the cleanliness law"), which require landfill operators to pay a levy for every ton of waste landfilled. Pursuant to the Cleanliness Law the landfill levy of unsorted waste will be five times higher than the landfill levy for waste residues after sorting. The levy gradually increases from NIS 10 and NIS 0.8 per ton in 2007 to NIS 50 and NIS 4 per ton of unsorted waste and waste residues after sorting, respectively. The Cleanliness law is designed to encourage waste sorting and recycling of waste paper instead of landfilling. During January 2011, the Knesset passed the Packaging Law (hereinafter – "the packaging Law") which imposes direct responsibility on manufacturers and importers in Israel to collect and recycle the packaging waste of their products. The Packaging Law is based on the principle that the manufacturer or importer is responsible for recycling the packaging of the products that were produced or imported by it for sale in Israel and to bear the cost associated with the collection and recycling of the waste. In order to ensure that the undertakings of the manufacturers and importers are met, any such manufacturer or importer must enter into a legal engagement with a known body, that would be a company whose sole purpose would be to uphold the obligations of all the manufacturers and importers with whom it has engaged and that has been recognized by virtue of the Packaging Law. The packaging and arrangements provisions stipulated thereunder with respect to the assignment of responsibility between manufacturers and local municipalities for the handling of waste, determining recycling quotas for each material, assigning duty of separation of the waste at its source and other directives of the Packaging Law - are also expected to increase the supply of waste paper and waste board in the local market.
The percentage of recycling in the total consumption of paper and cardboard in Israel in 2010 is estimated at 40% compared to 57% in West Europe. In 2008, The Confederation of European Paper Industries (CEPI) declared a recycling target of 65% of the cardboard and paper consumed in the EU. These data and the efforts of the Israeli government to encourage recycling in Israel are indicative of considerable potential for continued growth in recycling in this sector.
| The quality of packaging paper in terms of strength, resistance to humidity, price and other qualities dictates the use of this paper. Packaging paper can be classified into two main product groups: paper used for the manufacture of the external layer of corrugated cardboard and paper used for the manufacture of the external and internal layer of corrugated cardboard. |
Historically, corrugated cardboard was made from Craft Liner paper, which is high-quality virginal paper (mostly made from wood pulp). This paper is not manufactured in Israel. Due to the high price of Craft Liner paper and the trend of recycling materials, the global paper industry has developed recycled packaging paper that are cheaper than Craft Liner: fluting paper, test liner, white liner etc, which account for 70% of the packaging papers used in the manufacture of corrugated cardboard in Israel in quantitative terms. In comparison, the use of recycled packaging paper is sometimes as high as 90%. Until 2010, the packaging paper manufactured by Hadera paper was only suitable for this segment of the market, but with the introduction of new products for serial manufacture, Hadera Paper products can substitute the bulk of packaging papers used in the manufacture of corrugated cardboard.
In the last few years the Company has been engaged in the development of new products from waste paper (100% recycled), to be used as substitutes for virginal paper, mainly Craft Liner. The main advantages of the new products are as follows:
| √ | Environment-friendly products. Governments encourage the use of recycled products and end customers prefer recycled products to virginal products. This trend is expected to grow in the future. |
| √ | Substitutes for virginal packaging papers enable the Company to penetrate a new market segment, which is estimated at 30% of the packaging paper market in quantitative terms. Until 2010 this segment was based on imported virginal paper only. Naturally, the penetration of these products into the local industry could take several years. |
| √ | The potential to increase exports, as evidenced in 2010 in the growing demand overseas for recycled packaging paper. |
| √ | The price of new products is lower than the price of virginal products. |
| √ | The specification of new products allow top utilize the production capacity of Machine no. 1 whose operation was discontinued with the operation of Machine no. 8, as set forth below. |
In 2010, for the first time, the Company manufactured and marketed substantial quantities of the new products.
The price of packaging paper in Israel is based on the prices of these products overseas, while taking into account the advantages of working with local suppliers. The price of recycled packaging paper has risen sharply in 2010 while the prices of virginal papers have been eroded.
Amnir's products include waste paper and paperboard as well as plastic waste as well as shredding of material and disposal and shredding of waste paper and magnetic media.
| (3) | Manufacture, distribution and collection |
| On June 1, 2010 the testing of the operation of Machine 8, with an annual production capacity of 230,000 ton packaging paper, was completed. The construction of the new machine at a total cost of NIS 690 million was approved in 2007, as part of the Company's forecast that demand for recycled products will grow in the long term. The annual production capacity of packaging paper at year-end 2010 was 320,000 ton. In 2010, due to the testing of the machine, the Company's production capacity was 270,000 ton. The business results of Machine 8 during the testing period were capitalized to the cost of the machine. |
| Exploiting the potential of the new equipment is subject to the availability of waste paper and paperboard and an increase in Company sales to the local market: - |
| - | Amnir will continue to increase the pace of collection of waste paper and paperboard. In order to prepare for the operation of Machine 8, in 2008-2009 Amnir accumulated an inventory of waste paper and paperboard which, at year-end 2009, reached 100,000 tons. Most of the inventory was used up during 2010 and at December 31, 2010 Amnir's waste paper inventory is estimated at 15,000 ton. The Company is examining alternatives to supplement the sources of raw materials used in the manufacture of packaging paper, including the import of waste paper and paperboard. In the medium and long term the pace of collection is expected to catch up with the pace of processing of the waste. |
| - | The Company should encourage local customers to purchase packaging paper manufactured by the Company instead of importing the paper. Despite the clear advantages of buying raw materials from a local supplier, this process is expected to be gradual and until it is completed, the Company will export the excess paper to markets abroad. Export prices are usually lower than prices on the local market, in addition to which the seller incurs the transportation costs. It should be noted that due to the risks involved in international trade, the terms of credit for customers abroad are significantly better than the terms of credit for local customers. The completion of development of new products is expected to facilitate the above process. |
The investments in equipment for Machine 8 are amortized in the financial statements over a period of 25 years while for tax purposes over three years only, by 20%, 40% and 40% each year.
On the eve of the operation of Machine 8, the Company's production capacity reached 150-160 thousand tons per year. Once Machine 8 became operational, the old Machine 1, which had a production capacity of 50-60 thousand tons, was shut down. Machine 1 is operated periodically in order to preserve its production capacity without any significant investment. The old machine is suitable for the manufacture of new products with a relatively high weight per square meter and it may be operated in the future. Since its production capacity is not included in the overall production capacity of 320,000 per year, the operation of machine 1 could save investments in the short and medium term in production equipment.
At the Hadera site Amnir operates a plant for waste paper sorting, cleaning and pressing, paper shredders, magnetic media and other equipment. The production capacity in this site is estimated at 130,000 ton paper per year and only 82% of this capacity was utilized in 2010. In November 2010 Amnir's operation was relocated from Bney Brak to the new logistic center in Modi'in, which has an annual production capacity of 290,000 ton. In 2010, the Bney Brak and Modi’in sites treated 150,000 ton of waste paper, accounting for 52% of the production capacity in the new logistic center. Amnir has a fleet of 612 trucks, while 37 additional trucks are operated by subcontractors.
In addition to the manufacture and recycling of packaging paper, the Company operates an energy center through Hadera Paper Infrastructures, for the generation of steam and electricity and supplies additional services to Group companies (warehouse management, acquisitions, catering, transportation of employees, cleaning, etc). Companies using steam, electricity and other services pay Hadera paper Infrastructures for the cost of the steam and services while inter-company electricity charges are based on electricity fees set by the Israel Electric Corporation (hereinafter – "IEC"). In 2007 the Company began using natural gas in the generation of steam and electricity. The natural gas supply agreement that was signed in 2005 with the Yam Tethys partners is effective until July 1, 2011. The company is conducting negotiations with EMG and with additional potential suppliers regarding the purchase of natural gas by the company for the continued operation, subsequent to the termination of the agreement with Yam Tethys, as well as for the power plant whose construction is being considered by the company, as stated in Section 3.e.(4), below.
The price of natural gas used in the generation of steam and electricity by Hadera Paper Infrastructures is expected to increase. The cost of purchasing natural gas for the operation of the packaging paper segment in 2010 was NIS 30 million.
| There are five manufacturers of packaging paper and corrugated board containers in Israel: Carmel, Kargal Ltd6, Best Carton Ltd, Y.M.A 1990 Manufacture of Packaging Products Ltd and Ordea Print Industries Ltd. These companies purchase the products manufactured by Hadera Paper while importing virginal and recycled packaging paper from Germany, Spain, Austria, Italy, France and China. |
| The Company's customers manufacture corrugated board through corrugators. They process the corrugated board into board containers for their customers or sell the corrugated boards to small processers, which manufacture packaging for niche or small end customers. |
| Corrugated board containers are hygienic, disposable packages, which are relatively cheap and considered environment-friendly. Board containers are used in every sector of industry. The food and beverage industry and agricultural industry represent the biggest demand for corrugated board containers in Israel. Additional sectors that widely use corrugated board containers are: cosmetics, technology and industry. The import of board containers is not economically feasible due to the volume of the product, lack of supply availability and other factors, while its global price serves as a "shadow price" for the local product (in practice, imports are limited). |
| Demand for packaging paper stems from the basic consumption of food, beverages and agricultural produce and the use of substitutes (plastic containers, nylon bags etc). Demand is also affected by the extent of agricultural and industrial exports. For example, the rapid growth of agricultural exports in the last few years (exports of niche crops such as peppers, where farmers enjoy a high profit margin) has boosted demand for high-quality corrugated board containers. On the other hand – the relocation of industrial production from Israel to overseas markets, the import of packaged products and the increase in the price of water for agricultural uses is hurting the packaging sector. |
| The operation of Machine 8 has made the packaging segment Amnir's main customer, with 78% of Amnir's sales channeled to this segment in quantitative terms. Other Amnir customers include: Hogla, Shaniv Paper Industries Ltd, Panda Paper Enterprises (1997) Ltd and Jerusalem White Paper 2000 Ltd. |
6 About 26% of Kargal's share capital are held by CII, controlling shareholder of the company
| - | The Company's products are intended for the local market and are based on local raw materials. |
| - | The successful operation of Machine 8 has doubled the Company's packaging paper production capacity. |
| - | A "green" image due to the use of waste paper as the main raw material and recycling activity. |
| - | The Company's product mix is complete following the development of a recycled packaging paper as a substitute for virginal paper. |
| - | High entry barriers in the packaging paper segment including hefty investments in production and availability of waste paper and paperboard. Major manufacturers of packaging paper will have a small chance of successfully entering the market. |
| - | Amnir is branded as the leading waste paper and paperboard collector in Israel. |
Weaknesses
| - | The Company is dependent on a natural gas supplier and the gas price after July 1, 2011, when the current gas agreement ends. Disruptions in the gas supply and higher gas costs could have an adverse impact on the Company's business results. |
| - | Statutory limitations applicable to the Company by virtue of its status as a declared monopoly in the manufacture and marketing of papers in cylinders and sheets. |
Opportunities
| - | The successful testing of Machine 8 has occurred at a time of economic recovery, which increases the Company's chance of expanding its market share in Israel. |
| - | The development of new products that replace virginal paper could potentially increase sales to the local market by dozens of percents. |
| - | The marketing of new products overseas as "green" products that substitute virginal paper. |
| - | Increased collection of waste paper and paperboard in the next few years owing to higher collection capacity and the entry into force of the Cleanliness Law and the Packaging Law. |
Threats
| - | The advent of a double dip recession will hurt demand for packaging paper in Israel and overseas. |
| - | Exposure to the price of packaging paper overseas. |
| - | Unlike the white paper industry, where there is high correlation between the product's price and the cost of the main raw material – wood pulp, in the recycled paper industry, the correlation between the cost of waste paper and the product's price is relatively low. A decline in the prices of products could hurt the Company's profitability. |
| - | Imports of packaging paper by manufacturers of corrugated board containers and packaging at cheaper prices. |
| - | Lack of available sources of raw materials for the operation of the new machine and the need to import waste paper. |
| - | A sharp increase in the price of natural gas which is used to operate the energy center, once the current agreement with the Yam Tethys partnership ends in June 2011. |
| b. | Marketing of office supplies |
| The revenues of the office supplies marketing segment have grown by a double digit rate in the last few years while the operating profitability margin has been maintained at a range of 2.5%-3.5%, as follows: |
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in million | |
Revenues | | | 122 | | | | 119 | | | | 131 | | | | 151 | | | | 179 | |
Operating profit | | | 0 | | | | 1 | | | | 3 | | | | 5 | | | | 5 | |
Rate of change in revenues | | | 7.4 | % | | | (2.5 | )% | | | 9.9 | % | | | 15.5 | % | | | 18.5 | % |
Operating profit margin | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.7 | % | | | 2.4 | % | | | 3.3 | % | | | 2.8 | % |
| (1) | The business environment |
| Graffiti is engaged in the acquisition, imports, marketing and sale of office supplies and related products, mainly in the institutional market. The marketing and sale of office equipment is primarily carried out through participation in tenders, exhibitions, catalogues, websites and sales people. Graffiti provides services to large business customers (government offices, banks, health funds, etc) which usually offer the winning bidder a two-four year contract. In 2010 and 2009, Graffiti's revenues as a result of winning tenders accounted for 32% and 34% of its total revenues, respectively. |
| Graffiti offerings consist of about 12,000 items including, among others, dry food products and beverages and cleaning products. The marketed items are acquired from local suppliers (Hadera Paper Printing, Hogla, office equipment importers, consumer electronics importers, food and beverage manufacturers and others) or imported through a wholly-owned subsidiary which represents Artline, Mitsubishi, Max, Sneider and other international brands in Israel. Graffiti is not dependent on any of its suppliers. |
| Graffiti's main competitors are: Kravitz (1974) Ltd, Office Depot (Israel) Ltd, New Horizon Ltd, Pythagoras (1986) Ltd, Arta Graphics Art and Office Equipment Ltd, Lautman Rimon Ltd, Fun Manufacture and Imports of Office Supplies Ltd and additional office supplies marketers, some operating in niche markets. |
| In November 2010 Office Depot (Israel) Ltd was acquired by the New Hamashbir Lazarchan Ltd and Office Depot customers were added to the acquirer's consumer club. At this stage it is unclear how this acquisition will affect activity in the institutional market in which Graffiti specializes. |
| Graffiti operates several sites, the main one located in Park Afek in Rosh Ha'ayin, which houses Graffiti's main logistic centre, including a warehouse, sales and management centre. Graffiti is in the process of building a new logistic centre in Modi’in, as stated in section 2.a, above. The transition to the new logistic centre is scheduled for the second half of 2011, right after the lease agreement in Park Afek expires. Graffiti plans to consolidate its operations in the new logistic center. Graffiti's distribution centre includes 38 distribution vehicles. |
Graffiti's business operation is seasonal while its revenues in the second half of the year are usually higher than those in the first half.
| - | A strong brand among business and institutional customers; services provided countrywide. |
| - | Exclusive franchise to import several international brands such as Artline and Mitsubishi (Uni-ball pens). |
Weaknesses
| - | Very low entry barriers to the office supplies sector and fierce competition, primarily in the center of Israel. |
| - | Strong competitors with long-standing brands such as Office Depot and Kravitz. |
Opportunities
| - | Graffiti is taking advantage of the market decentralization and its own economies of scale to promote growth through mergers and acquisitions. |
| - | It is also using the advantages of the new logistic center to reduce operating costs. The new logistic center is expected to computerize and streamline inventory and order management. |
Threats
| - | Graffiti is exposed to customers from every sector of the economy. The collapse of companies during the economic crisis, especially in the real estate, diamond and technology sectors, and the cutback in procurement budgets among institutional and business customers could hurt Graffiti's day-to-day operations and its assets (trade receivable). |
| - | The acquisition of Office Depot by the New Hamashbir Lazarchan could escalate competition in the market. |
| c. | Printing and Writing Paper |
| Until 1999 the Printing and Writing Paper segment (hereinafter – "printing paper") was managed as a division of Hadera Paper and as part of its core business. In 1999 Mondi Business Paper Ltd (formerly Neusiedler AG) (hereinafter – "MBP") acquired 50.1% of the division which, on the eve of the transaction, was transferred to Hadera Paper – Printing and Writing Paper Ltd (formerly – Mondi Hadera Paper Ltd) (hereinafter – "Hadera Paper Printing"), which was established for that purpose. On December 31, 2010 the Company acquired 25.1% of the shares of Hadera Paper Printing from MBP for a consideration of €10.4 million and as of that date the Company holds 75% of the shares of Hadera Paper Printing. |
| As part of acquiring 25.1% of the shares, Hadera paper Printing gave MBP a put option to sell its remaining holdings in Hadera Paper Printing to the Company (hereinafter – "undertaking to MBP"). The price of exercise of the option was set as the market value of Hadera Paper Printing after deducting 20% but no less than a fixed amount, as it is defined in the purchase agreement. The put option will be blocked for the first three years from the date of closing of the transaction, and shall be exercisable at any time thereafter. |
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in million | |
Revenues | | | 712 | | | | 770 | | | | 732 | | | | 669 | | | | 729 | |
Operating profit | | | (2 | ) | | | 34 | | | | 34 | | | | 40 | | | | 31 | |
Rate of change in revenues | | | 7.3 | % | | | 8.2 | % | | | (4.9 | )% | | | (8.6 | )% | | | 8.9 | % |
Operating profit margin | | | (0.3 | )% | | | 4.4 | % | | | 4.7 | % | | | 6.0 | % | | | 4.2 | % |
The value of the Company's holdings in the shares of Hadera Paper Printing and the value of the option given to MBP were recorded in the financial statements as of the transaction date, December 31, 2010, based on the paper on the Purchase Price Allocation (PPA) of Mondi Hadera Paper Ltd, which was prepared by Giza Even Singer Ltd. Due to the fact that the date of financial reporting and the closing date of the translation are identical, no adjustments were made to the value of investment in Mondi in the company balance sheet as at December 31, 2010. The value of holdings in Hadera Paper Printing and the undertaking in respect of the MBP option in this valuation were also determined based on the results of the above PPA. |
Below is a description of the business activity of Hadera Paper Printing and a summary of its financial statements:
| (1) | The business environment |
| Hadera Paper Printing is engaged in the manufacture, imports, marketing and sale of writing and printing paper and the only manufacturer in Israel that specializes in the manufacture of these products. The main product offered by Hadera Paper Printing is uncoated white paper made of pulp, weighting 70-90 grams per square meters, which is the most common paper in Israel for these uses. To supplement its products basket Hadera paper Printing imports high-density paper, coated paper, colored paper and other types of paper and imports the surplus white paper it manufactures. |
| Hadera Paper Printing's competitors in the domestic market are the leading paper importers in Israel: Niris Ltd, Ronimer Ltd, Elenfer Trading, Mey Hanachal Ltd, B.O.R. Rose Brotherhood Ltd and others. Some of the competing imports are based on spot transactions for inventories in Europe, and carried out by office supplies and paper distributors. The volume of these imports changes from one year to the next as a function of the availability and price of white paper in Europe. |
| In the last few years Hadera Paper has been working to expand its exports. In 2007-2008 the company's products were exported directly rather than through MBP, with most of the exports directed to Mediterranean Basin countries: Cyprus, Egypt and Jordan. In 2010 efforts were made to shift exports to the US, which offered higher profit margins. Exports to the US in 2010 accounted for 66% of total exports compared to 90% of exports to Egypt and Jordan in 2008-2009. The following graph a development of the company's exports in the last few years: |

The price of writing and printing paper is usually derived from excess production capacity in the sector. Due to the high transportation costs, Israel is mainly affected by excess production costs in Europe. RISI, which specializes in economic reviews for the paper industry, published a forecast at the end of 2010 according to which demand for writing and printing paper in Europe will remain relatively stable in the foreseeable future due to the transition of consumers to substitute products such as digital media. This situation is expected to maintain excess production capacity, at the level recorded in late 2010, about 10% of installed production capacity.
Domestic demand for the products of Hadera Paper Printing mainly stems from economic activity and the size of the population, and is affected by long-term trends such as environmental conservation, printed media consumption habits, demand for books, etc. Very few changes are expected in demand for printing and writing paper in Israel, with erosion in demand for paper per capita on the one hand, and population growth on the other.
The supply of printing and writing paper products in Israel is derived from the production capacity of Hadera Paper Printing and the volume of imported paper. The volume of import is affected by the difference between the price of white paper overseas and its price in Israel, exchange rates, transportation costs and other factors. Excess demand/supply overseas is derived from the level of demand and the pace of construction/shutting down of production plants, mainly in Europe. Hadera Paper Printing estimates its share of the domestic market at 50%.
| Hadera Paper Printing operates in four segments of the Israeli market: |
Marketing of white paper manufactured by Hadera Paper Printing and imported coated paper. The paper is usually supplied in large sheets or cylinders.
Marketing and sale of writing paper for private and office uses (mainly A4) to office supply retailers. Hadera Paper Printing's customers include the three biggest office supply retailers in Israel: Office Depot, Kravitz and Graffiti, smaller retailers and large business and institutional customers such as government offices, banks, etc.
| - | Independent distributors |
Hadera Paper Printing markets its products to small customers through independent distributors.
| - | Paper product manufacturers |
In this segment Hadera Paper Printing markets white paper to manufacturers of paper products: envelopes, notebooks and writing pads, and to businesses specializing in digital printing (office letterheads, greeting cards, etc).
In Israel, Hadera Paper Printing possesses approximately 450 customers, with the central customers being printing houses (approximately 21%), paper wholesalers (approximately 19%), office supplies wholesalers (approximately 32%), manufacturers of paper products (approximately 28%) and end users.
| (3) | Raw materials and suppliers |
| Hadera Paper Printing's main raw material is pulp which on average constitutes 50% of the cost of production. Hadera Paper Printing purchases pulp from several suppliers, mainly European, as part of MBP's long-term purchase agreements and in its opinion, is not dependent on these suppliers or on MBP. |
| | The price of pulp soared in 2007 and in the first half of 2008 amid the steep rise in the prices of most commodities and fell in the second half of 2008 and in the first half of 2009. In the second half of 2009 pulp prices began climbing again, a trend which continued until the last quarter of 2010. The graph below is a development of global pulp prices in 2009-2010 and a forecast for 2011: |
| Additional raw materials in the manufacture of white paper are chemical substances, mainly chalk and starch. These materials are acquired from two local manufacturers, Oumia Shfeya Ltd and Galam Ltd. These are the sole manufacturers of these materials in Israel and therefore Hadera Paper Printing is dependent on these suppliers. |
| Hadera Paper Printing buys electricity and steam from Hadera Paper Infrastructures7. At the end of 2007 Hadera Paper's energy center began using natural gas instead of fuel oil. As a result, in 2008 Hadera paper Printing's energy costs began dropping. Once the natural gas agreement with the Yam Tethys partners expires in 2011, energy prices are expected to increase. The company is conducting negotiations with several entities regarding the purchase of natural gas, as stated in Section 3.a.(3), above. |
| Hadera Paper Printing uses MBP's purchase system to buy imported pulp and chemicals. For these services Hadera Paper Printing pays MBP a fee at the rate of 1% of the purchase volume. Hadera Paper Printing works with three major pulp suppliers overseas and in its opinion, it is not dependent on any of these pulp suppliers. No change is anticipated in the purchasing of pulp via MBP as a result of the transition of 75% of the holdings in Hadera Paper Printing to Hadera Paper as of December 31, 2010. |
| Most of the raw materials used in the manufacture of white paper are commodities or their prices are derived from the prices of commodities, and they are stated in foreign currency. On the other hand, the prices of Hadera Paper's products on the local market are stated in shekels and are not directly linked to the prices of commodities. As a result, Hadera Paper Printing is exposed to fluctuations in the prices of pulp and chemical as well as fluctuations in currency exchange rates. Hadera Paper Printing is also exposed to energy prices, mainly electricity and steam. |
| (4) | Production and distribution |
| Hadera Paper Printing's production plant is located in Hadera and has a fully-utilized production capacity of 141,000 ton. In 1999 the plant's production capacity was 90,000 ton per year, but owing to MBP's know-how, its production capacity rose to 120,000 ton per year. In 2005 the plant's production capacity was increased by 20,000 ton per year as a result of improvements in the paper machine and optimization of the production process with a $12 million investment. In the last few years, the production capacity remained stable, as follows: |
| Until the last quarter of 2010, the company's products in Israel were distributed from three sites in Hadera, Holon and Haifa. In the fourth quarter Hadera Paper Printing relocated its operation to the new logistic center in Modi’in. |
| - | The sole manufacturer of writing and printing paper in Israel. |
| - | The required capital investment constitutes a high entry barrier for paper manufacturers and consequently, the odds of building an additional white paper plant in Israel are slim. |
| - | 25% of the shares of Hadera Paper Printing are owned by MBP, one of the leading global manufacturers of printing and writing paper. Hadera Paper Printing has access to MBP's international know-how and purchase system. |
| - | The company's papers are notable for their high quality. |
| - | A diverse products basket |
Weaknesses
| - | Full utilization of production capacity, increasing production above the potential in the optimization of the production process requires investments in the paper machines. |
| - | The main raw material – pulp, is imported to Israel. The chances of significantly expanding the plant or acquiring a new paper machine are slim. |
| - | Dependence on two chemical suppliers with local production plants. |
| - | Exposure to prices of raw materials, exchange rates and energy prices. |
Opportunities
| - | Additional expansion of production capacity through optimization of the process at a small investment. |
| - | Waning demand for Hadera Paper's products in the medium and long term due to changes in consumers' preferences, the "green" trend and a shift to digital media. |
| - | Competing imports from Europe at cheaper prices. |
| - | A deepening economic crisis will erode domestic demand for printing and writing paper or create large paper surpluses in Europe. |
| - | Deterioration of the security situation in the region could impact direct exports. |
| (6) | Summary of business results and financial situation |
| The following tables include a summary of the consolidated financial statements of Hadera Paper Printing: |
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in million | |
Revenues | | | 712 | | | | 770 | | | | 732 | | | | 669 | | | | 729 | |
Cost of revenues | | | 660 | | | | 688 | | | | 650 | | | | 579 | | | | 640 | |
Gross profit | | | 52 | | | | 82 | | | | 83 | | | | 91 | | | | 88 | |
Selling and marketing expenses | | | 45 | | | | 38 | | | | 38 | | | | 40 | | | | 43 | |
Administrative and general expenses | | | 9 | | | | 11 | | | | 10 | | | | 11 | | | | 14 | |
Other income (expenses) | | | - | | | | - | | | | (1 | ) | | | - | | | | - | |
Operating profit (loss) | | | (2 | ) | | | 34 | | | | 34 | | | | 40 | | | | 31 | |
Financing expenses | | | 7 | | | | 8 | | | | 8 | | | | 11 | | | | 2 | |
Pre-tax income (expenses) | | | (9 | ) | | | 25 | | | | 26 | | | | 29 | | | | 29 | |
Tax expenses (income) | | | (1 | ) | | | 7 | | | | 7 | | | | 1 | | | | 7 | |
Net income (loss) | | | (8 | ) | | | 18 | | | | 19 | | | | 28 | | | | 22 | |
EBITDA | | | 9 | | | | 44 | | | | 46 | | | | 52 | | | | 43 | |
Rate of change in revenues | | | 7.3 | % | | | 8.2 | % | | | (4.9 | )% | | | (8.6 | )% | | | 8.9 | % |
Gross profit margin | | | 7.3 | % | | | 10.6 | % | | | 11.3 | % | | | 13.6 | % | | | 12.1 | % |
Operating profit margin | | | (0.3 | )% | | | 4.4 | % | | | 4.7 | % | | | 6.0 | % | | | 4.2 | % |
Net income margin | | | (1.1 | )% | | | 2.3 | % | | | 2.6 | % | | | 4.2 | % | | | 3.0 | % |
EBITDA margin | | | 1.3 | % | | | 5.8 | % | | | 6.2 | % | | | 7.8 | % | | | 5.9 | % |
Effective tax rate | | | 12.5 | % | | | 28.6 | % | | | 26.8 | % | | | 2.1 | % | | | 24.9 | % |
| | 31/12/09 | | | 31/12/10 | | | | 31/12/09 | | | 31/12/10 | |
| | NIS million | | | | NIS million | |
Cash and cash equivalents | | | 17 | | | | 13 | | Short-term bank credit | | | 69 | | | | 93 | |
Trade receivable | | | 184 | | | | 176 | | Current maturities of long-term credit | | | 11 | | | | 4 | |
Other receivables | | | 2 | | | | 6 | | Suppliers and service providers | | | 106 | | | | 120 | |
Inventory | | | 108 | | | | 162 | | Commercial debt to Hadera Paper | | | 58 | | | | 55 | |
| | | | | | | | | Declared dividend | | | - | | | | 9 | |
| | | | | | | | | Other | | | 26 | | | | 30 | |
Total current | | | 312 | | | | 356 | | Total current maturities | | | 269 | | | | 309 | |
assets | | | | | | | | | Deferred income tax | | | 23 | | | | 22 | |
| | | | | | | | | Long-term credit net of current maturities | | | 13 | | | | 9 | |
Intangible assets | | | 3 | | | | 3 | | Liabilities in respect of employees, net | | | 2 | | | | 3 | |
Total long-term investments | | | 3 | | | | 3 | | Total long-term liabilities | | | 38 | | | | 34 | |
Fixed assets, net | | | 147 | | | | 146 | | Shareholders' equity | | | 155 | | | | 163 | |
Total assets | | | 462 | | | | 506 | | Total equity and liabilities | | | 462 | | | | 506 | |
| d. | Packaging and carton products |
Carmel Containers was established in 1983 and is engaged in the planning, manufacture, marketing and sale of containers, corrugated cardboard panels, wooden surfaces and other products. In 1986 its shares were listed for trading on the AMEX in the US, in 2005 they were delisted from trading and on October 4, 2010 a public purchase offer for 10.7% of the shares was completed. As of the date of this opinion, the Company holds 100% of the shares of Carmel. Below is a summary of Carmel's business results:
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS million | |
Revenues | | | 420 | | | | 471 | | | | 418 | | | | 383 | | | | 397 | |
Operating profit | | | 17 | | | | 14 | | | | (7 | ) | | | 13 | | | | 4 | |
Rate of change in revenues | | | 1.1 | % | | | 12.3 | % | | | (11.4 | )% | | | (8.3 | )% | | | 3.7 | % |
Operating profit margin | | | 4.0 | % | | | 3.0 | % | | | (1.7 | )% | | | 3.4 | % | | | 1.0 | % |
Frenkel is engaged in the planning, manufacture, marketing and sale of shelf cardboard packaging, stands for the display of products on the selling floor, etc. Frenkel was established following a merger between C.D. Packaging Systems Ltd and Frenkel and Sons Ltd in January 2006. On the eve of the transaction, C.D. Packaging Systems Ltd was owned by the Company (50%) and Carmel (50%) while Frenkel and Sons Ltd was controlled by a third party. Following the transaction, the Company and Carmel each hold 28.9% of the shares of Frenkel, while Frenkel and Sons Ltd hold the remaining 42.2%. Below is a summary of Frenkel's business results:
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS million | |
Revenues | | | 113 | | | | 123 | | | | 117 | | | | 120 | | | | 131 | |
Operating profit | | | (1 | ) | | | 1 | | | | 1 | | | | 2 | | | | 3 | |
Rate of change in revenues | | NR | | | | 8.6 | % | | | (4.4 | )% | | | 2.3 | % | | | 9.2 | % |
Operating profit margin | | | (0.6 | )% | | | 0.9 | % | | | 0.6 | % | | | 1.7 | % | | | 2.3 | % |
The value of the Company's holdings in Carmel in this valuation was determined based on the valuation of Carmel Containers Ltd, which was prepared by Giza Singer Even Ltd, enclosed as Appendix B. The value of the Company's holdings in Frenkel was determined, due to lack of materiality, based on the balance of investment in Frenkel in the Company's balance sheets at December 31, 2010 |
Below is a description of the business activity of Carmel and Frenkel and a summary of their financial statements:
| (1) | The business environment |
| In the Company's estimation, in 2010 the local packaging market grew at a rate of 3% as a result of higher demand for food and beverages, agricultural and technological products, among others. |
| Carmel's competitors in the corrugated market are four local manufacturers of corrugated cardboard and its products: Kargal Ltd8, Best Carton Ltd, Y.M.A. 1990 Manufacturing of Packaging Products Ltd and Ordea Print Industries Ltd. These companies manufacture corrugated cardboard panels and containers and sell the containers to customers that use them for packaging purposes, and the corrugated cardboard panels to companies that manufacture small series of containers for small customers. The entry barrier to the corrugated cardboard market is relatively high because of the need to invest in corrugators. Small corrugators have a production capacity of 40,000 ton per year while bigger corrugators produce up to 80,000 ton per year. Investing in a corrugator requires the manufacturer to sell large volumes to customers in a saturated market and therefore entails a high risk. |
| The import of paper and cardboard packaging is limited due to their physical volume and the high availability required for packaging products. Several companies import packaging products directly but the volume of these imports is small. |
| Carmel's customers in the corrugated cardboard market include leading food and beverage companies, agricultural wholesalers, farmers, technology companies, government offices and banks. Its customers in the corrugated cardboard panels are companies that process the panels into packaging products and printing companies that use corrugated cardboard as a raw material for printing or adhering. |
8 About 26% of Kargal's share capital is held by CII Ltd., the controlling shareholder of the company
| Carmel has 250 active customers, with revenues from the 20 biggest customers accounting for more than 50% of Carmel's total income. Although sales to one customer represented 12.7% of Carmel's revenues in 2010, it is not dependent on a single customer. The packaging products are sold by sales persons and in exhibitions and trade fairs, while some customers conduct periodic tenders among packaging suppliers. |
| In 2010, out of the total packaging paper used by Carmel 55% was recycled paper manufactured by Hadera Paper and 45% was imported virginal paper. In Europe, by comparison, recycled packaging paper accounts for 90% of total paper consumption in the corrugated cardboard packaging industry. The transition to recycled packaging paper by Carmel can lead to cost saving on the one hand, and boost demand for Hadera Paper's products on the other. |
| In addition to corrugated cardboard packaging, Carmel is engaged in the manufacture of reinforced containers from multi-layered corrugated cardboard. The manufacture of multi-layered cardboard containers is a niche area with a limited growth potential and the products usually replace wooden crates. The entry barrier to this sector is rather high due to the know-how required in the planning of unique highly-resilient packaging solutions. In this area Carmel's main competitor is Triplex Containers (2003) Ltd. |
| The wooden surfaces sector comprises several manufacturers and marketers, mostly regional. The entry barrier is low and the sector is characterized by a relatively high turnover. |
| As of December 31, 2010, Carmel's production capacity at its Caesarean plant was estimated at 100,000 ton per year and 15,000 ton at its Carmiel plant. The actual production utilizes 80% of the company's production capacity in Caesaria and 85% of its capacity in Carmiel. Carmel's production system comprises corrugators and machines for processing corrugated cardboard panels (mainly printing and cutting), warehouses for raw materials and finished products and a truck fleet operated by subcontractors. |
| Frenkel's operation requires it to supply high-quality printing on packaging products. The field has changed in the last decade with the entry of digital printing, making the manufacture of packaging products by smaller printing firms economically viable. Frenkel's main competitors are: the Ducarte Group, Graphics Bezalel Ltd, Hanamal, Copy Center and various small companies. Most of Frenkel's customers are food and beverage companies. Frenkel is not dependent on any particular customer. |
| - | Reputation and extensive know-how in the manufacture of packaging |
| - | A diverse products basket comprising small and unique packaging products, serial production of corrugated cardboard containers and custom-made large containers from multi-layered corrugated cardboard. |
| - | Carmel's customers come from essential sectors such as agriculture, food, beverages, etc, whose exposure to an economic crisis is relatively low. |
Weaknesses
| - | Low entry barrier (unlike the manufacture of corrugated cardboard) leads to fierce competition. |
| - | Competitive market (four large players) which is affected by the gap between supply and demand due to the structure of investments in the sector (efficient corrugators are large corrugators, where the investment in a single corrugator can reach tens of millions of dollars and where a new corrugator possesses a significant impact on the sector). |
Opportunities
| - | Taking advantage of the synergy from the acquisition of control in Carmel and Frenkel on the one hand and expansion of the production capacity of packaging paper, on the other. |
| - | Carmel's transition to recycled packaging paper could reduce the cost of materials and improve its profit margins. |
Threats
| - | The agriculture industry is one of the biggest consumers of corrugated cardboard containers, especially for exports. Cutting back water quotas for farmers could reduce crop yields and as an outcome – the demand for packaging products. |
| - | The transition to multi-use plastic packaging from paper and cardboard packaging as part of the "green" trend will reduce demand for Carmel's products. |
| - | Carmel is exposed to changes in exchange rates due to the fact that 60% of its packaging paper is imported while product prices are in shekels. |
| (3) | Summary of Carmel and Frenkel's business results |
| The following tables present a summary of financial position and financial results for Carmel and Frenkel: |
| | Carmel | | | Frenkel | | | | Carmel | | | Frenkel | |
| | 31/12/2010 | | | | 31/12/2010 | |
| | NIS million | | | | NIS million | |
Cash and cash equivalents | | | 1 | | | | | Short-term bank credit | | | 43 | | | | 28 | |
Trade receivable | | | 178 | | | | 40 | | Current maturities of short term credit | | | | | | | 6 | |
Other receivable | | | 4 | | | | 1 | | Suppliers and service providers | | | 91 | | | | 35 | |
Inventory | | | 54 | | | | 25 | | Others | | | 23 | | | | 7 | |
Total current assets | | | 237 | | | | 66 | | Total current liabilities | | | 157 | | | | 76 | |
| | | | | | | | | Deferred and other income taxes | | | 4 | | | | 3 | |
Investment in associates | | | 8 | | | | | | Long-term credit net of current maturities | | | 39 | | | | 8 | |
Intangible and other assets | | | | | | | 4 | | Liabilities in respect of employees , net | | | 2 | | | | 3 | |
Total long-term investments | | | 8 | | | | 4 | | Total long-term liabilities | | | 45 | | | | 14 | |
Fixed assets, net | | | 81 | | | | 43 | | Shareholders' equity | | | 124 | | | | 23 | |
Total assets | | | 326 | | | | 113 | | Total equity and liabilities | | | 326 | | | | 113 | |
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS million | |
Revenues | | | 420 | | | | 471 | | | | 418 | | | | 383 | | | | 397 | |
Cost of revenues | | | 369 | | | | 417 | | | | 384 | | | | 329 | | | | 353 | |
Gross profit | | | 51 | | | | 55 | | | | 34 | | | | 54 | | | | 44 | |
Selling and marketing expenses | | | 23 | | | | 24 | | | | 23 | | | | 23 | | | | 24 | |
Administrative and general expenses | | | 16 | | | | 17 | | | | 20 | | | | 19 | | | | 19 | |
Other income (expenses) | | | 5 | | | | 0 | | | | 2 | | | | 1 | | | | 3 | |
Operating expenses | | | 17 | | | | 14 | | | | (7 | ) | | | 13 | | | | 4 | |
Financing expenses | | | 2 | | | | 5 | | | | 3 | | | | 3 | | | | - | |
Pre-tax income | | | 15 | | | | 10 | | | | (10 | ) | | | 10 | | | | 4 | |
Tax income (expenses) | | | 3 | | | | 2 | | | | (3 | ) | | | 1 | | | | 1 | |
Profit after tax | | | 12 | | | | 8 | | | | (7 | ) | | | 9 | | | | 3 | |
Share in loss of associates, net | | | - | | | | - | | | | (1 | ) | | | - | | | | - | |
Net income (loss) | | | 12 | | | | 8 | | | | (7 | ) | | | 9 | | | | 3 | |
EBITDA | | | 36 | | | | 35 | | | | 14 | | | | 29 | | | | 17 | |
Rate of change in revenues | | | 1.1 | % | | | 12.3 | % | | | (11.4 | )% | | | (8.3 | )% | | | 3.7 | % |
Gross profit margin | | | 12.2 | % | | | 11.6 | % | | | 8.0 | % | | | 14.1 | % | | | 11.1 | % |
Operating profit margin | | | 4.0 | % | | | 3.0 | % | | | (1.7 | )% | | | 3.4 | % | | | 1.0 | % |
Net income margin | | | 2.9 | % | | | 1.6 | % | | | (1.8 | )% | | | 2.3 | % | | | 0.8 | % |
EBITDA margin | | | 8.5 | % | | | 7.3 | % | | | 3.4 | % | | | 7.6 | % | | | 4.3 | % |
Frenkel:
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS million | |
Revenues | | | 113 | | | | 123 | | | | 117 | | | | 120 | | | | 131 | |
Cost of revenues | | | 99 | | | | 111 | | | | 105 | | | | 105 | | | | 114 | |
Gross profit | | | 14 | | | | 12 | | | | 13 | | | | 15 | | | | 17 | |
Selling and marketing expenses | | | 9 | | | | 6 | | | | 6 | | | | 7 | | | | 8 | |
Administrative and general expenses | | | 6 | | | | 5 | | | | 7 | | | | 6 | | | | 6 | |
Operating expenses | | | (1 | ) | | | 1 | | | | 1 | | | | 2 | | | | 3 | |
Financing expenses | | | 2 | | | | 3 | | | | 4 | | | | 3 | | | | 3 | |
Pre-tax income | | | (3 | ) | | | (2 | ) | | | (4 | ) | | | (1 | ) | | | 0 | |
Tax income (expenses) | | | (1 | ) | | | (0 | ) | | | (1 | ) | | | (2 | ) | | | 0 | |
Net income (loss) | | | (2 | ) | | | (1 | ) | | | (3 | ) | | | 1 | | | | 0 | |
EBITDA | | | 3 | | | | 4 | | | | 5 | | | | 5 | | | | 8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Rate of change in revenues | | NR | | | | 8.6 | % | | | (4.4 | )% | | | 2.3 | % | | | 9.2 | % |
Gross profit margin | | | 12.7 | % | | | 9.9 | % | | | 10.8 | % | | | 12.5 | % | | | 13.0 | % |
Operating profit margin | | | (0.6 | )% | | | 0.9 | % | | | 0.6 | % | | | 1.7 | % | | | 2.3 | % |
Net income margin | | | (1.9 | )% | | | (0.9 | )% | | | (2.2 | )% | | | 0.8 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
EBITDA margin | | | 2.4 | % | | | 3.3 | % | | | 4.1 | % | | | 4.2 | % | | | 6.1 | % |
| e. | Other assets and liabilities |
| (1) | Real estate not used in current operations |
HADERA PAPER owns two real estate properties not used in its current operations:
Location | | Company having ownership rights | | Land area | | Buildings on property | | Current use | | Value | | | Net value* | |
| | | | | m2 | | | | | | NIS in millions | | | NIS in millions | |
TEL AVIV, 6-8 TOZERET HA-ARETZ Street | | HADERA PAPER | | | 7,590 | | None | | Vacant | | | 58 | | | | 50 | |
HADERA, adjacent to Company compound | | HADERA PAPER | | | 119,000 | | None | | Vacant | | | 24 | | | | 24 | |
Total value | | | | | | | | | | | | 81 | | | | 74 | |
A plot of land with an area of 7,590 m2 at TOZERET HA-ARETZ Street, leased from City of TEL AVIV. On June 1, 2010, the Company entered into agreement with GAV-YAM Land Ltd.9 to sell its rights to this land, for total consideration amounting to NIS 64 million and received a 10% down payment. As of December 31, 2010, the contingent conditions for closing of this transaction have yet to be fulfilled. The value of the property in this valuation is derived from the consideration in this transaction.
In 2005, the Company acquired a plot of land with an area of 119 thousand m2 adjacent to the HADERA PAPER facility, with the intention to construct on it a co-generation power plant; see section 3e(3) below. The value of this land was set at its acquisition cost.
| (2) | Holdings in BONDEX Technologies Ltd. |
In 2010, the Company acquired 18.37% (or 16.84% fully diluted) of shares of BONDEX Technologies Ltd. (hereinafter: "BONDEX") for consideration of $450 thousand. BONDEX is engaged in research and development of BONDER, a biological material designed to enhance qualities of packaging paper. As of December 31, 2010, the Company holds 18.37% of BONDEX shares. In February 2011, a foreign investor acquired 11.11% of BONDEX shares for $500 thousand. This investor was also granted an option to acquire additional shares. Subsequent to this investment, the Company's stake in BONDEX decreased to 16.33%, or 13.70% fully diluted - including the aforementioned option granted to the foreign investor.
9 A company indirectly controlled by IDB Development Ltd., the controlling shareholder of the Company, and by AMOT Investment Ltd., with holdings of 71% and 29%, respectively.
| (3) | Leasing of facility roof for construction of solar power plant |
In February 2011, subsequent to this valuation, the Company entered into agreement with an affiliate, CLAL PV Projects Ltd. ("CLAL PV") - a private company indirectly owned and controlled by CII - to lease the roofs of buildings at the Company campus in HADERA, with a total area of up to 19,100 m2 (the Company was granted an option not to lease part of this area, of up to 14,300 m2) for construction of power generation facilities using photo-voltaic technology and its transmission to the power grid during the lease term pursuant to a generation license to be granted to CLAL PV.
The rent would amount to NIS 90-802 thousand per year, based on the actual area leased, and shall be determined on the tariff for generation of 1 kilowatt/hour of electricity to be approved for CLAL PV in the generation license to be awarded. The agreement also stipulates that the Company would be paid additional rent of up to NIS 70 thousand per year, for generation of excess power (if any), pursuant to provisions of this agreement. The lease term shall be from 20 years to 24 years and 11 months.
| (4) | Construction of co-generation power plant |
The Company plans to construct a co-generation power plant using natural gas at its HADERA site. Advantages of this location are the connection point to the natural gas pipeline, and its proximity to the IEC power plant and relay in HADERA. The Company acquired land adjacent to its campus for future construction of this power plant, see section 3e(1) below, and in 2007 signed a memorandum of understanding with Egyptian gas provider, EMG; a binding delivery agreement has yet to be signed. Currently it is challenging to estimate if and whether this power plant would be constructed, its generation capacity and profitability, and its impact on the Company cost structure.
The TAMAR and LEVIATHAN gas fields discovered, according to reports, offshore from Israel in 2009-2010 may serve as an alternative source for Egyptian gas, thereby facilitating construction of private power plants in Israel, including the Company's.
Below is a summary of consolidated financial statements of HADERA PAPER. For the purpose of financial analysis, these statements present investments in HADERA PAPER Print Paper, CARMEL and FRENKEL, which have been separately valued, using the equity accounting method:
| | December 31, 2009 | | | December 31, 2010 | | | | December 31, 2009 | | | December 31, 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions | | | | NIS in millions | |
Cash and designated deposits | | | 138 | | | | 106 | | Short-term credit from banks | | | 86 | | | | 5 | |
Trade receivables | | | 94 | | | | 158 | | Current maturities of debentures and long-term credit | | | 144 | | | | 142 | |
Other accounts receivable | | | 92 | | | | 143 | | Trade payables | | | 107 | | | | 142 | |
Inventory | | | 108 | | | | 103 | | Others | | | 113 | | | | 162 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total current assets | | | 432 | | | | 510 | | Total current liabilities | | | 450 | | | | 451 | |
Investment in affiliated companies | | | 451 | | | | 566 | | Deferred taxes on income | | | 24 | | | | 7 | |
Deferred taxes on income | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | Long-term credit net of current maturities | | | 172 | | | | 193 | |
Lease and investment property | | | 38 | | | | 25 | | Debentures | | | 472 | | | | 562 | |
Intangible and other assets | | | 24 | | | | 2 | | Liabilities on account of MBP option | | | 12 | | | | 32 | |
| | | | | | | | | Liabilities with respect to employees, net | | | 8 | | | | 12 | |
Total long-term investments | | | 515 | | | | 595 | | Total long-term liabilities | | | 688 | | | | 806 | |
Fixed assets, net | | | 1,023 | | | | 1,082 | | Shareholders' equity | | | 832 | | | | 930 | |
Total assets | | | 1,970 | | | | 2,187 | | Total shareholders’ equity and liabilities | | | 1,970 | | | | 2,187 | |
* Pro-forma information - consolidated financial statements in which investments in HADERA Print Paper, CARMEL and FRENKEL are stated on equity basis.
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Revenues | | | 530 | | | | 584 | | | | 537 | | | | 475 | | | | 689 | |
Cost of Revenues | | | 419 | | | | 441 | | | | 419 | | | | 418 | | | | 575 | |
Gross income | | | 111 | | | | 142 | | | | 118 | | | | 57 | | | | 114 | |
Selling and marketing expenses | | | 31 | | | | 31 | | | | 36 | | | | 43 | | | | 55 | |
General and administrative expenses | | | 30 | | | | 36 | | | | 46 | | | | 34 | | | | 35 | |
Other revenues (expenses) | | | 37 | | | | (5 | ) | | | 4 | | | | 20 | | | | 31 | |
Operating income | | | 88 | | | | 70 | | | | 39 | | | | 0 | | | | 55 | |
Financing expenses | | | 31 | | | | 21 | | | | 12 | | | | 11 | | | | 42 | |
Income Before Taxes | | | 57 | | | | 49 | | | | 27 | | | | (11 | ) | | | 13 | |
Tax expense (benefit) | | | 17 | | | | 18 | | | | 6 | | | | (5 | ) | | | (4 | ) |
After-tax income of Company and subsidiaries | | | 40 | | | | 31 | | | | 22 | | | | (6 | ) | | | 17 | |
Share of net income (loss) of associates | | | (27 | ) | | | 1 | | | | 48 | | | | 97 | | | | 84 | |
Net income (loss) | | | 13 | | | | 32 | | | | 70 | | | | 91 | | | | 101 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Change in revenues | | | 9.9 | % | | | 10.1 | % | | | (8.0 | )% | | | (11.6 | )% | | | 45.1 | % |
Gross margin | | | 21.0 | % | | | 24.4 | % | | | 21.9 | % | | | 12.0 | % | | | 16.8 | % |
Operating margin | | | 16.6 | % | | | 12.0 | % | | | 7.3 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 8.0 | % |
Net margin | | | 2.4 | % | | | 5.4 | % | | | 13.0 | % | | | 19.2 | % | | | 14.7 | % |
EBITDA | | | 22.6 | % | | | 18.2 | % | | | 16.9 | % | | | 11.3 | % | | | 17.5 | % |
Effective tax rate | | | 29.5 | % | | | 37.4 | % | | | 20.9 | % | | | 45.5 | % | | | (30.8 | )% |
* Pro-forma information - consolidated financial statements in which results of HADERA Print Paper, CARMEL and FRENKEL are stated on equity basis.
| (1) | Revenues and profitability |
Revenues of HADERA PAPER on its pro-forma financial statements are derived from industrial operations of the packaging paper and recycling segment, and from trading operations in the office equipment marketing segment, as follows:
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Revenues from industrial operations | | | 404 | | | | 463 | | | | 406 | | | | 317 | | | | 502 | |
Revenues from trading operations | | | 126 | | | | 121 | | | | 131 | | | | 158 | | | | 187 | |
Total revenues | | | 530 | | | | 584 | | | | 537 | | | | 475 | | | | 689 | |
Export revenues | | | 48 | | | | 49 | | | | 56 | | | | 70 | | | | 175 | |
Change in revenues from industrial operations | | | 10.8 | % | | | 14.5 | % | | | (12.3 | )% | | | (21.9 | )% | | | 58.4 | % |
Change in revenues from trading operations | | | 6.9 | % | | | (4.0 | )% | | | 8.3 | % | | | 20.4 | % | | | 18.4 | % |
Share of revenues from industrial operations | | | 76.2 | % | | | 79.3 | % | | | 75.6 | % | | | 66.7 | % | | | 72.9 | % |
Change in export revenues | | | 10.4 | % | | | 1.7 | % | | | 14.6 | % | | | 25.4 | % | | | 150.0 | % |
The decrease in revenues from industrial operations in 2009 was due to the crisis in packaging paper operations at that time, due to implications of the global economic crisis on these operations in Israel. Excess packaging paper produced in Europe in the second half of 2008 and in the first half of 2009 enabled importation of packaging paper to Israel at dumping pricing10 on the one hand, and reduced demand for exportation of packaging paper from Israel on the other hand. In 2010, two events caused a sharp increase in revenues from industrial operations: excess demand for packaging paper world-wide due to the economic recovery, which resulted in 150% growth in exports, along with higher product prices on the local market, as well as operation of Machine 8, starting on June 1, 2010, which doubled the production capacity of packaging paper.
Revenues from trading operations reflect the evolution in recent years of the office equipment marketing segment. Growth in this segment is primarily organic, but some of the revenue growth in 2008-2009 is due to acquired trading operations.
10 For complaint filed by the Company with the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Labor on this matter in January 2009, see section 3a(1) below.
Gross margin for the packaging paper segment, which in 2007-2008 reached 20%-22%, was sharply eroded in 2009 due to implications of the economic crisis on packaging paper operations in Israel, as described above. In 2010, gross margin rose sharply, and income grew due to higher product prices and the launch of Machine 8 - as described above. It would appear that the closer the Company is to its objective - doubling the production capacity of packaging paper - the more it would realize economies of scale inherent there in. Composition of gross margin in 2006-2010:
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in Millions | |
Revenues | | | 530 | | | | 584 | | | | 537 | | | | 475 | | | | 689 | |
Materials | | | 86 | | | | 93 | | | | 85 | | | | 54 | | | | 96 | |
Cost of labor | | | 105 | | | | 116 | | | | 122 | | | | 118 | | | | 115 | |
Changes in inventory of work-in-progress and finished goods | | | (0 | ) | | | (2 | ) | | | (13 | ) | | | (19 | ) | | | 20 | |
Depreciation | | | 28 | | | | 31 | | | | 45 | | | | 47 | | | | 60 | |
Cost of goods sold in trading operations | | | 94 | | | | 89 | | | | 94 | | | | 112 | | | | 135 | |
Total cost of revenues | | | 419 | | | | 441 | | | | 419 | | | | 418 | | | | 575 | |
Gross income | | | 111 | | | | 142 | | | | 118 | | | | 57 | | | | 114 | |
Change in revenues | | | 10 | % | | | 10 | % | | | (8 | )% | | | (12 | )% | | | 45 | % |
Gross margin | | | 21 | % | | | 24 | % | | | 22 | % | | | 12 | % | | | 17 | % |
The Company's rate of selling and marketing expenses is relatively low, due to how it markets its products to business and institutional customers, primarily distributed by sales staff. In 2010, the change in cost of sales and marketing staff, including management, was only 13% - compared to 81% growth in volume of packaging paper marketed and 45% overall growth in revenues on the consolidated financial statements above.
Rent and contribution of associates is primarily composed of rent and contribution towards HQ and IT expenses of HADERA PAPER; for details of contribution towards expenses, see section 2a(2) above.
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Cost of labor | | | 14 | | | | 14 | | | | 15 | | | | 19 | | | | 22 | |
Packaging, transportation and shipping | | | 9 | | | | 10 | | | | 10 | | | | 17 | | | | 24 | |
Commissions | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | | | 3 | | | | 2 | | | | 4 | |
Others | | | 5 | | | | 5 | | | | 7 | | | | 1 | | | | 1 | |
Depreciation | | | 1 | | | | 1 | | | | 1 | | | | 4 | | | | 4 | |
Total selling and marketing expenses | | | 31 | | | | 31 | | | | 36 | | | | 43 | | | | 55 | |
Cost of labor | | | 43 | | | | 46 | | | | 51 | | | | 44 | | | | 47 | |
Others | | | 10 | | | | 14 | | | | 17 | | | | 11 | | | | 12 | |
Depreciation | | | 3 | | | | 3 | | | | 5 | | | | 7 | | | | 5 | |
Less rent and contribution of associates | | | (27 | ) | | | (26 | ) | | | (27 | ) | | | (28 | ) | | | (29 | ) |
Total general and administrative expenses | | | 30 | | | | 36 | | | | 46 | | | | 34 | | | | 35 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Change in cost of labor | | | 7.7 | % | | | 2.8 | % | | | 11.7 | % | | | (4.4 | )% | | | 9.5 | % |
Variable selling and marketing expenses as percentage of revenues* | | | 3.0 | % | | | 2.8 | % | | | 3.7 | % | | | 4.2 | % | | | 4.2 | % |
Change in general, administrative and other expenses | | | 32.9 | % | | | 44.3 | % | | | 20.7 | % | | | (34.9 | )% | | | 9.1 | % |
Change in rent and contribution of associates | | | 9.4 | % | | | (1.5 | )% | | | 0.8 | % | | | 5.7 | % | | | 3.6 | % |
* Packaging, transportation, shipping, commissions and other expenses
The Company’s other revenues amounted to approximately NIS 31 million and possess a non-recurring nature, as follows:
| | NIS millions | |
Capital gains on account of fixed assets and spare parts inventories | | | 19 | |
Refund of Hadadit fund to employers, net | | | 6 | |
Earnings from valuation of investment in investee company | | | 6 | |
Total other revenues | | | 31 | |
The Company's financing expenses increased in 2010, due to sharp increase in debt, primarily due to the discontinuation of discounting of financial expenses associated with the construction cost of Machine 8, as of May 2010, coupled with the changes in inflation rate and in the Prime lending rate in Israel's economy during that year.
Fluctuations in the effective tax rate in 2009-2010 are due to adjustment of deferred tax balances with respect to accelerated depreciation of Machine 8 for tax purposes, in view of the downward trend in corporate tax rate through 2016.
HADERA PAPER finances its operations using equity and foreign capital. At the most recent issuance of debentures (Series 5) in May 2010, the Company raised NIS 180 million, net. At the most recent issuance of debentures (Series 5) in May 2010, the Company raised NIS 180 million, net. The debentures mature in five equal annual installments on November 30 of each year between 2013-2017. Interest is payable in equal semi-annual installments on May 31 and November 30 of each year between 2010-2017.
HADERA PAPER's financial debt as of December 31, 2010 is estimated at NIS 922 million, as follows:
| | December 31, 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Long-term debenture balance* | | | 595 | |
Long-term borrowing net of current maturities | | | 193 | |
Short-term borrowing and current maturities of debentures | | | 147 | |
Accounts payable with respect to acquisition of MONDI shares | | | 49 | |
Accounts receivable with respect to investment in fixed assets | | | 29 | |
Other financial obligations, net | | | 17 | |
Less: | | | | |
Cash and deposits | | | 106 | |
Value of holding stake in BONDEX ** | | | 2 | |
Net financial debt | | | 922 | |
* Includes mark-to-market of negotiable debentures (Series 3-5).
** See section 3e(2) above.
| (3) | Working capital requirements |
The Company's operating working capital at the end of 2008, and primarily in 2009, was relatively high - due to accumulation of inventory of paper and cardboard waste at AMNIR pending operation of Machine 8. In 2010, the rate of working capital dropped below its typical level at the Company prior to construction of Machine 8. This decrease was due to consumption of most of the waste inventory and to increase in packaging paper exports, for which customer credit is relatively low. Composition of the Company's working capital is as follows:
| | December 31, 2009 | | | December 31, 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Trade receivables | | | 94 | | | | 158 | |
Inventory | | | 108 | | | | 103 | |
Trade payables* | | | 36 | | | | 113 | |
Operating working capital, Net | | | 166 | | | | 148 | |
Percentage of revenues** | | | 35 | % | | | 21 | % |
* Net of payables on account of fixed assets.
** Approx. 20% in 2010 due to running-in results of Machine 8.
| (4) | Investment and depreciation |
Company investment (excluding Machine 8), between the years 2006-2010, in the sum of NIS 219 million, are similar to the accrued depreciation expenses for that period, amounting to NIS 239 million, as follows:
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Investment, excluding Machine 8 | | | 53 | | | | 73 | | | | 31 | | | | 26 | | | | 36 | |
Depreciation | | | 32 | | | | 36 | | | | 51 | | | | 54 | | | | 66 | |
Investment to depreciation ratio | | | 166 | % | | | 203 | % | | | 60 | % | | | 48 | % | | | 54 | % |
Through 2007, Company investments exceeded depreciation expense, where some of this investment was of non-recurring nature, such as conversion of the energy center to using natural gas. In coming years, the Company anticipates significant excess depreciation over investment, due to completion of Machine 8 construction and to potential increase of the Company's production capacity of packaging paper using the older Machine 1.
| (5) | Stock options to employees |
In the first half of 2008, the Company granted to employees 263 thousand stock options, net, which vest in four equal lots as follows:
Lot 1 - from January 14, 2009 through January 13, 2012.
Lot 2 - from January 14, 2010 through January 13, 2012.
Lot 3 - from January 14, 2011 through January 13, 2013.
Lot 4 - from January 14, 2012 through January 13, 2014.
The exercise price is NIS 224; upon the exercise date, employees will receive the number of shares equal to the value of the benefit inherent in exercise of their stock options, and would only pay to the Company the par value of shares allotted.
As of December 31, 2010, there were 158 thousand stock options outstanding, as follows:
| Lot 1: | 12,275 stock options. |
| Lot 2: | 15,013 stock options. |
| Lot 3: | 65,375 stock options. |
| Lot 4: | 65,375 stock options. |
The value of HADERA PAPER for its shareholders as of December 31, 2010 is estimated at between NIS 1,657-1,869 million, as follows:
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Holding stake | | | High value | | | Low value | | | See section | |
| | | | | NIS in millions | | | | |
Enterprise valuation (EV) - HADERA PAPER, consolidated* | | | | | | 1,460 | | | | 1,332 | | | | ** | |
Value of excess real estate | | | | | | 74 | | | | 74 | | | Section 3e(1) | |
Value of holding stake in CARMEL | | | 100.0 | % | | | 160 | | | | 160 | | | | ** | |
Value of holding stake in HADERA PAPER PRINTING | | | 75.0 | % | | | 157 | | | | 157 | | | | ** | |
Liability with respect to MBP | | | | | | | (32 | ) | | | (32 | ) | | | ** | |
Value of holding stake in FRENKEL | | | 28.9 | % | | | 19 | | | | 19 | | | | ** | |
Net financial debt | | | | | | | (922 | ) | | | (922 | ) | | Section 3f(2) | |
Valuation of HADERA PAPER, consolidated, net | | | | | | | 917 | | | | 789 | | | | | |
Value of holding stake in HOGLA | | | 49.9 | % | | | 977 | | | | 887 | | | Section 4c | |
Value of equity, HADERA PAPER | | | | | | | 1,894 | | | | 1,676 | | | | | |
Value of stock options to employees | | | | | | | (25 | ) | | | (19 | ) | | | ** | |
Value of HADERA PAPER to shareholders | | | | | | | 1,869 | | | | 1,657 | | | | | |
* Excluding HADERA PAPER PRINTING, CARMEL and FRENKEL.
HADERA PAPER was valuated using the Discounted Cash Flow method (DCF); for valuation methodology see section 2b abov
This valuation of HADERA PAPER is higher by 21% on average than the Company's average market capitalization over the six months preceding the valuation date, and is higher by 89% on average than the Company's shareholder equity as of December 31, 2010, as follows:
| | | | | | Difference between value in model and market cap | |
| | Market cap | | | | High value | | | | Low value | | | | Average | |
| | NIS in millions | | | | NIS in millions | |
Company value in valuation | | | | | | 1,869 | | | | 1,657 | | | | 1,763 | |
Market cap* of equity during six months prior to effective date | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Highest | | | 1,616 | | | | 16 | % | | | 3 | % | | | 9 | % |
Lowest | | | 1,314 | | | | 42 | % | | | 26 | % | | | 34 | % |
Average | | | 1,454 | | | | 29 | % | | | 14 | % | | | 21 | % |
Market cap* as of December 31, 2010 | | | 1,505 | | | | 24 | % | | | 10 | % | | | 17 | % |
Shareholders' equity on balance sheet as of December 31, 2010 | | | 930 | | | | 101 | % | | | 78 | % | | | 90 | % |
Value in transaction as of September 30, 2009** | | | 1,147 | | | | 63 | % | | | 44 | % | | | 54 | % |
Value in valuation as of June 30, 2009** | | | 1,144 | | | | 63 | % | | | 45 | % | | | 54 | % |
* Value derived from price of Company share on TEL AVIV Stock Exchange.
** Value in acquisition of 21.45% of Company shares by CII from Discount Investments was determined taking into account the valuation as of June 30, 2009 which was prepared by myself for negotiations between the parties.
For further information pursuant to Securities Regulations (Periodic and immediate reports), 1970, see Appendix D.
Between June 30, 2009 through to December 31, 2010, the Company's market value increased by 71%; for evolution of share price and trading volume, see Appendix A.
Volatility in Company valuation on the TEL AVIV Stock Exchange is due to the financial and economic crisis in global capital markets, including the Israeli one, see section 2c above. The scope of operations of Group companies is derived from the state of Israel's economy, its population, changes in standard of living and business activity, and it would appear that change in market cap of HADERA PAPER is due both to macro-economic changes and to Company-specific changes, primarily doubling of packaging paper production capacity.
| (1) | Enterprise valuation (EV) - HADERA PAPER |
The valuation of HADERA PAPER is composed of expected operating income for the packaging paper and recycling segment, and for the office equipment marketing segment. After consolidating operating income forecasts for each segment, we made some model assumptions at level of HADERA PAPER consolidated financial statements, excluding HADERA PAPER PRINTING, CARMEL and FRENKEL, whose valuation was determined as set forth in section 3g(2) below.
Assumptions of the model are as follows:
Packaging paper and recycling segment
| - | Packaging paper production capacity shall increase to 309 thousand tones in 2011, and to 320 thousand tons per year starting in 2012. This compares to 160 thousand tones in 2009, and to 270 thousand tons in 2010, when Machine 8 was in operation as from June 1, 2010; |
| - | The domestic market for packaging paper (in volume terms) shall grow at 3% annually during the forecast period, and at 1.5% for the long term; the Company's market share shall gradually increase from 38% in 2010 to 60% in 2014 and there after; excess production shall be exported. The share of export (in volume terms) shall gradually decline over the forecast period, from 45% in 2011 to 18% for the long term; |
| - | Packaging paper price in Israel in 2011 shall be 10% higher than the average price in 2010, similar to actual selling price in late 2010. The average price shall increase by 3% in 2012 and by 1% annually between 2013-2014, while from 2015 and after which time the selling price shall remain unchanged. These assumptions reflect a slow economic improvement compared to the sector condition in late 2010; |
| - | Exported packaging paper price in 2011 shall be 18% higher than the average price in 2010, similar to actual selling price in late 2010. The average price shall increase by 3% in 2012, and shall remain unchanged in 2013 and there after. These assumptions reflect a slow economic improvement compared to the sector condition in late 2010; |
| - | We assume that material cost per ton of packaging paper shall increase by 8% in 2011 compared to 2010, due to the need to import raw materials that year, and shall decrease by 5% in 2012 due to the reduction in waste imports and shall remain unchanged from 2013 and for the remainder of the forecast. |
| - | It was assumed that other variable production costs represent approximately 83% of total other production costs. It was thus assumed that other variable production costs per ton shall increase by 7% between the years 2011-2012, and shall remain unchanged for the remainder of the forecast. Other fixed production cost shall increase by 5% annually between 2011-2012 and then by 1.5% annually for the remainder of the forecast. The increase in other production costs reflect expectations for higher cost of natural gas, used in energy generation by Hadera Paper Infrastructures; |
| - | Production labor cost shall increase by 6% in 2011, by 3% annually in 2012-2013, and by 1.5% annually in 2014 and there after; |
| - | Gross income contribution of other operations, primarily the leasing of property, electricity generation, provision of IT services and the provision of other services to third parties shall amount to NIS 12 million in year 1 of the forecast, as compared with NIS 4 million in 2010. The contribution from other activities in 2010 was affected by the malfunction of an electrical turbine, that served to reduce the contribution from other activities by approx. NIS 6 million. Moreover, the charge fees for provided services were updated by Headquarters and Infrastructures toward the end of 2010. It was assumed that starting in 2011, the said contribution would grow by some 1.5% per annum. The company estimates that the rising gas prices will not materially affect the profitability of generating electricity. |
| - | Operations of the recycling segment shall be based on demand for paper and cardboard waste for production of packaging paper and other products (tissue paper and white paper). We assume that collection and purchasing of paper and cardboard waste can be increased so as to satisfy this demand starting in 2012. |
| - | Collection and purchase of paper and cardboard waste by AMNIR shall gradually increase from 338 thousand tones in year 1 of the forecast, to 452 thousand tones in the typical year, compared to collection and purchase of 210 thousand tons, 241 thousand tons and 267 thousand tons in 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively; |
| - | The weighted selling price of paper and cardboard waste sold by AMNIR shall increase by 7% in 2011 compared to the average selling price in 2010, and shall be similar to the selling price per ton in late 2010 - due to higher prices of waste used in production of packaging paper. In 2012 and there after, the weighted selling price per ton of paper and cardboard waste shall remain unchanged; |
| - | AMNIR revenues from collection of plastic shall increase by 7% in 2011, and by 1.5% annually in 2012 and there after; |
| - | AMNIR revenues from service provision shall increase by 7% in 2011, and by 1.5% annually in 2012 and there after; |
| - | We assume that the ratio of material cost to revenues for AMNIR in the forecast period shall be 34% of revenues, as compared with 28% in 2010, due to the assumption of increased price of paper waste, due to possible shortage in the domestic market in coming years. |
| - | We assume that the ratio of other production costs to revenues for AMNIR in the forecast period shall be 32%, compared to 30% in 2010; |
| - | We assumed that labor cost in collection and processing at AMNIR shall increase by 16%, 10%, 5% and 5% in years 1-4 of the forecast, respectively, and shall increase by 1.5% annually in 2015 and there after. This is due to the assumption that additional staff would have to be recruited in order to increase capacity collection of paper and cardboard waste in coming years. |
| - | We assume that the ratio of selling and marketing expenses to revenues for the packaging paper and recycling segment, during the forecast period, shall be equal to 3.0% of sector revenues, similar to the level of expenses in 2010. |
| - | We assume that general and administrative expenses for the packaging paper and recycling segment, during the forecast period, shall increase by 1.5% annually. |
| - | We assume that contribution of the agreement with CLAL PV, as set forth in section 3a(f) above, shall amount to NIS 0.5 million starting in 2012. This contribution was deducted from the Company's general and administrative expenses. |
Below is a summary business plan for the packaging paper and recycling segment:
| | 2010 | | | 2011 | | | 2012 | | | 2013 | | | 2014 | | | 2015 | | | 2016 | | | 2017 | | | Typical year | |
| | Actual | | | Forecast | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Revenues* | | | 511 | | | | 746 | | | | 798 | | | | 819 | | | | 845 | | | | 862 | | | | 870 | | | | 879 | | | | 887 | |
Cost of Revenues | | | 449 | | | | 585 | | | | 599 | | | | 608 | | | | 621 | | | | 632 | | | | 636 | | | | 646 | | | | 656 | |
Gross income | | | 62 | | | | 108 | | | | 144 | | | | 155 | | | | 167 | | | | 173 | | | | 176 | | | | 179 | | | | 181 | |
Selling and marketing, less depreciation | | | 15 | | | | 22 | | | | 23 | | | | 24 | | | | 25 | | | | 25 | | | | 26 | | | | 26 | | | | 26 | |
General & administrative, less depreciation | | | 20 | | | | 20 | | | | 20 | | | | 20 | | | | 21 | | | | 21 | | | | 21 | | | | 22 | | | | 22 | |
Depreciation, general & administrative | | | 8 | | | | 8 | | | | 8 | | | | 8 | | | | 8 | | | | 8 | | | | 8 | | | | 8 | | | | 5 | |
Others | | | 31 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Operating income | | | 50 | | | | 58 | | | | 92 | | | | 103 | | | | 114 | | | | 119 | | | | 121 | | | | 123 | | | | 128 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Change in revenues | | | 50.7 | % | | | 37.4 | % | | | 6.9 | % | | | 2.7 | % | | | 3.1 | % | | | 2.1 | % | | | 0.9 | % | | | 1.0 | % | | | 0.9 | % |
Gross margin | | | 12.1 | % | | | 14.5 | % | | | 18.0 | % | | | 19.0 | % | | | 19.8 | % | | | 20.1 | % | | | 20.2 | % | | | 20.3 | % | | | 20.4 | % |
Operating margin | | | 9.8 | % | | | 7.8 | % | | | 11.6 | % | | | 12.6 | % | | | 13.5 | % | | | 13.8 | % | | | 13.9 | % | | | 14.0 | % | | | 14.4 | % |
* 2010 revenues exclude revenues in the run-in period of Machine 8, which were capitalized under fixed assets. | |
Office equipment marketing segment
Operations of this segment are derived, in part, from volume of business activity in the economy (business customers) and in part, from public expenditure (government ministries, local authorities, educational institutions etc.); these are the model-specific assumptions for the recycling segment:
| - | Segment revenues shall increase by 1.5% annually over the forecast period; |
| - | Gross margin shall gradually increase in 2011 and in 2012, to 30% of revenues, compared to 29% of revenues in 2010 - similar to gross margin in 2009; |
| - | Selling and marketing expenses shall gradually decrease from 20% in 2011 to 19.7% in 2014 and there after, due to expected higher efficiency after relocating to the new logistics center at MODI'IN. The ratio of these expenses to revenues in 2010 was 20.1%; |
| - | General and administrative expenses for the segment shall increase by 1.5% annually over the forecast period. |
Below is a summary business plan for the office equipment marketing segment:
| | 2010 | | | 2011 | | | 2012 | | | 2013 | | | 2014 | | | 2015 | | | 2016 | | | 2017 | | | Typical year | |
| | Actual | | | Forecast | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Revenues | | | 179 | | | | 182 | | | | 184 | | | | 187 | | | | 190 | | | | 193 | | | | 196 | | | | 199 | | | | 202 | |
Cost of goods sold in trading operations | | | 127 | | | | 129 | | | | 130 | | | | 132 | | | | 134 | | | | 136 | | | | 138 | | | | 140 | | | | 142 | |
Cost of Revenues | | | 127 | | | | 129 | | | | 130 | | | | 132 | | | | 134 | | | | 136 | | | | 138 | | | | 140 | | | | 142 | |
Gross income | | | 52 | | | | 53 | | | | 55 | | | | 55 | | | | 56 | | | | 57 | | | | 58 | | | | 59 | | | | 60 | |
Selling and marketing | | | 36 | | | | 36 | | | | 37 | | | | 37 | | | | 37 | | | | 38 | | | | 39 | | | | 39 | | | | 40 | |
General and administrative | | | 10 | | | | 10 | | | | 10 | | | | 10 | | | | 11 | | | | 11 | | | | 11 | | | | 11 | | | | 11 | |
Depreciation | | | 1 | | | | 2 | | | | 3 | | | | 3 | | | | 3 | | | | 3 | | | | 3 | | | | 3 | | | | 1 | |
Operating income | | | 5 | | | | 5 | | | | 5 | | | | 5 | | | | 5 | | | | 5 | | | | 6 | | | | 6 | | | | 8 | |
Change in revenues | | | 18.5 | % | | | 1.5 | % | | | 1.5 | % | | | 1.5 | % | | | 1.5 | % | | | 1.5 | % | | | 1.5 | % | | | 1.5 | % | | | 1.5 | % |
Gross margin | | | 29.1 | % | | | 29.3 | % | | | 29.7 | % | | | 29.7 | % | | | 29.7 | % | | | 29.7 | % | | | 29.7 | % | | | 29.7 | % | | | 29.7 | % |
Operating margin | | | 2.8 | % | | | 2.6 | % | | | 2.5 | % | | | 2.6 | % | | | 2.8 | % | | | 2.8 | % | | | 2.8 | % | | | 2.8 | % | | | 3.9 | % |
Taxation
Due to absence of approved investment plans and other tax incentives, other than accelerated amortization for tax purposes of the investment in Machine 8, as set forth in section 3a(1) above, based on past experience, we assumed that the effective tax rate for HADERA PAPER during the forecast period shall be the same as the statutory tax rate. For determination of the tax rate during the forecast period, see section 2b above.
The economic benefit associated with accelerated amortization for tax purposes of the investment in Machine 8 is due to these two factors: Deferment of tax payment to future years, even had the tax rate not decreased over time, and economic benefit from reduction of the corporate tax rate from 24% in 2010 to 18% in 2016, with a higher tax rate saved in early years compared to the tax rate in the future. For calculation of the estimated value of this benefit, we have prepared an estimated cash flow over the loss utilization period, and in the period in which the taxable income would be higher than income on the financial statements ("reversal period"), capitalized as of the valuation date. The discounted value of the tax benefit associated with accelerated amortization of equipment for tax purposes is estimated at NIS 20 million.
Investment and depreciation
We assumed that upon completion of Machine 8, HADERA PAPER would invest NIS 36 million in 2011, and later on during the forecast, annual investment would gradually increase to NIS 45 million in 2017 and to NIS 69 million in the typical year.
Depreciation and amortization is expected to amount to NIS 84 million in 2011, gradually decreasing to NIS 69 million in the typical year.
In order to reflect Company estimates, whereby in the first twenty years of Machine 8, the investment there in shall be lower than depreciation with respect there to, we assume that the gap between investment and depreciation is expected to continue beyond year 8 of the forecast (the typical year), in which we assume that investment would equal depreciation. Therefore, we calculated the excess depreciation over investment between 2018-2027 assuming that the gap between depreciation and investment in 2017 would decrease by NIS 2 million annually, down to zero in 2028. The excess depreciation over investment in this period, capitalized as of the valuation date, is estimated at NIS 50 million.
Working capital requirements
We assume that in 2011, HADERA PAPER would require operating working capital at 20% of revenues, similar to the working capital percentage in 2010. Later on, the ratio of working capital to revenues would gradually increase to 22%, due to diversion of export sales to the domestic market - which requires higher customer credit. This will be partially offset by the optimization of working capital for the new output capacity.
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and long-term growth rate (g)
The real capital cost was set between 9.25-9.75% p.a., or an average of 9.5% p.a. The WACC reflected the following assumptions: capital cost - 12% p.a.; debt cost - 5% p.a.; tax rate - 18%; and financial leverage - 35%.
The capital cost of 12% p.a. was calculated using the CAPM model, as set forth in section 2b above. We assume long-term risk-free interest rate to be 2.7% p.a., long-term market risk premium to be between 7-9% p.a. and Company beta to be between 1.1-1.25. The beta range is derived from typical beta values world-wide for the paper, lumber and packaging industry11.
The risk-free cost of capital in the model, 2.7% p.a., is derived from the yield to maturity on Government of Israel CPI-linked debentures with duration of 10 years or more, as of December 31, 2010. The debt cost for HADERA PAPER in the model was determined to be the risk-free capital cost in the model, plus the Company's risk premium. The risk premium is determined as the difference, upon the valuation date, between the yield to maturity of corporate debentures with similar rating to that of the Company, and the yield to maturity of Government of Israel CPI-linked debentures with similar duration.
For details of determination of the risk-free capital cost and debt cost for the Company, see section 2b above.
11 See summary of beta values by Aswath Damodaran:
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/Betas.html
We assume that free cash flow (FCF) for HADERA PAPER would grow in the long term at 1.25-1.75% annually, on average at 1.5% annually - similar to the population growth rate. This assumes that technology improvements, use of Machine 1 for packaging paper and growth of recycling volume in Israel would support this long-term growth in production capacity without investment in excess of depreciation.
Calculation of enterprise value (EV) for Hadera Paper on a consolidated basis12:
| | 2011 | | | 2012 | | | 2013 | | | 2014 | | | 2015 | | | 2016 | | | 2017 | | | Typical year | |
| | Forecast | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Operating income - packaging and recycling | | | 58 | | | | 92 | | | | 103 | | | | 114 | | | | 119 | | | | 121 | | | | 123 | | | | 128 | |
Operating income - office equipment | | | 5 | | | | 5 | | | | 5 | | | | 5 | | | | 5 | | | | 6 | | | | 6 | | | | 8 | |
Total operating income | | | 62 | | | | 97 | | | | 108 | | | | 119 | | | | 124 | | | | 127 | | | | 129 | | | | 135 | |
Tax rate | | | 24 | % | | | 23 | % | | | 22 | % | | | 21 | % | | | 20 | % | | | 18 | % | | | 18 | % | | | 18 | % |
Tax | | | 15 | | | | 22 | | | | 24 | | | | 25 | | | | 25 | | | | 23 | | | | 23 | | | | 24 | |
After-tax operating income | | | 47 | | | | 75 | | | | 84 | | | | 94 | | | | 99 | | | | 104 | | | | 106 | | | | 111 | |
Depreciation | | | 84 | | | | 78 | | | | 78 | | | | 78 | | | | 78 | | | | 78 | | | | 78 | | | | 69 | |
Investment in fixed assets | | | (36 | ) | | | (36 | ) | | | (37 | ) | | | (39 | ) | | | (41 | ) | | | (43 | ) | | | (45 | ) | | | (69 | ) |
Changes to working capital | | | (37 | ) | | | (16 | ) | | | (10 | ) | | | (11 | ) | | | (4 | ) | | | (2 | ) | | | (3 | ) | | | (2 | ) |
Free cash flow (FCF) | | | 58 | | | | 101 | | | | 115 | | | | 122 | | | | 132 | | | | 136 | | | | 136 | | | | 109 | |
Discounted cash flow | | | 55 | | | | 88 | | | | 92 | | | | 89 | | | | 88 | | | | 83 | | | | 75 | | | | | |
Value of excess depreciation over investment and tax incentives | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 70 | |
Residual value | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 753 | |
| | High value | | | Low value | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Calculation assumptions | | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
Weighted Average Cost of capital (WACC) | | | 9.25 | % | | | 9.75 | % |
Long-term growth rate (g) | | | 1.75 | % | | | 1.25 | % |
Model results | | | | | | | | |
EV for HADERA PAPER, net | | | 1,460 | | | | 1,332 | |
12 Excluding Hadera Paper Printing, Carmel and Frenkel.
| | | | | Long-term real growth rate (g) | |
| | | | | | | 2.25 | % | | | 2.00 | % | | | 1.75 | % | | | 1.50 | % | | | 1.25 | % | | | 1.00 | % | | | 0.75 | % |
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) for discounting cash flow | | | 8.50 | % | | | 1,686 | | | | 1,646 | | | | 1,610 | | | | 1,576 | | | | 1,545 | | | | 1,515 | | | | 1,488 | |
| | 8.75 | % | | | 1,626 | | | | 1,590 | | | | 1,557 | | | | 1,526 | | | | 1,497 | | | | 1,470 | | | | 1,444 | |
| | 9.00 | % | | | 1,570 | | | | 1,538 | | | | 1,507 | | | | 1,478 | | | | 1,452 | | | | 1,427 | | | | 1,403 | |
| | 9.25 | % | | | 1,519 | | | | 1,489 | | | | 1,460 | | | | 1,434 | | | | 1,410 | | | | 1,386 | | | | 1,365 | |
| | 9.50 | % | | | 1,471 | | | | 1,443 | | | | 1,417 | | | | 1,393 | | | | 1,370 | | | | 1,348 | | | | 1,328 | |
| | 9.75 | % | | | 1,425 | | | | 1,400 | | | | 1,376 | | | | 1,354 | | | | 1,332 | | | | 1,312 | | | | 1,294 | |
| | 10.00 | % | | | 1,383 | | | | 1,360 | | | | 1,337 | | | | 1,317 | | | | 1,297 | | | | 1,278 | | | | 1,261 | |
| | 10.25 | % | | | 1,344 | | | | 1,322 | | | | 1,301 | | | | 1,282 | | | | 1,263 | | | | 1,246 | | | | 1,230 | |
| | 10.50 | % | | | 1,306 | | | | 1,286 | | | | 1,267 | | | | 1,249 | | | | 1,232 | | | | 1,216 | | | | 1,200 | |
| (2) | Value of other assets and liabilities |
Value of excess real estate
Excess real estate value amounting to NIS 74 million was calculated as set forth in section 3e(1) above.
Value of holding stake in CARMEL
The value of the holding stake in CARMEL was determined based on valuation by GIZA-SINGER-EVEN Ltd. dated September 30, 2010 - enclosed as Appendix B. Note that this valuation excludes the value of CARMEL holding stake in FRANKEL - about 28.9%. The value of this holding stake is included in the value of HADERA PAPER's holding stake in FRENKEL, as set forth below.
Value of holding stake in HADERA PAPER PRINTING and liability to MBP
The value of the holding stake in HADERA PAPER PRINTING and liability to MBP with respect to put option granted to MBP is derived from consideration in the transaction by which the Company acquired 25.1% of HADERA PAPER PRINTING shares on December 31, 2010, based on the opinion by GIZA-SINGER-EVEN Ltd. with regard to purchase price allocation (PPA) for HADERA PAPER PRINTING, attached to the financial statements of the company as at December 31 ,2010. Due to the fact that the date of closing of the transaction is identical to the date of the financial statements of the company, no adjustments were made for the value of Hadera Paper in the balance sheet of the company at this time.
Value of holding stake in FRENKEL
The value of holding stake in FRENKEL was determined, as it is not material, to be equal to the carrying amount of the investment in FRENKEL on HADERA PAPER financial statements as of December 31, 2010, plus the carrying amount of investment in FRENKEL on CARMEL financial statements as of said date, which was excluded from valuation of CARMEL, as set forth above.
Value of other investments
The value of investment in BONDEX shares was determined – due to the immateriality – on the basis of the cost of investment, as stated in Section 3.e.(2), above. The investment in Bondex was included in the calculation of financial debt, net, as a financial asset.
We assume that expected economic contribution from leasing roofs to CLAL PV, as set forth in section 3a(f) above, shall amount to NIS 0.5 million starting in 2012. This contribution was offset against general and administrative expenses on the Company's business forecast, as set forth in section 3g(1) above.
Due to uncertainty and absence of schedule for construction of the power plant, as set forth in section 3e(4) above, no value was attributed to this project.
Net financial debt
HADERA PAPER's net financial debt as of December 31, 2010 amounted to NIS 922 million - see section 3f(2) above.
Stock options to employees
The value of stock options granted to employees in 2008, as set forth in section 3f(5) above, was calculated using the Black & Scholes model - based on share prices derived from Company valuation using the valuation model, standard deviation derived from changes in share price, and risk-free interest as published by the TEL AVIV Stock Exchange. The following parameters were used to calculate the value of stock options:
Share price (NIS)* | | | 324-366 | |
Exercise price (NIS) | | | 223.97 | |
Risk-free capital cost** | | | 3%-4% | |
Standard deviation | | | 22.5% | |
Exercise date | | At the end of each period | |
| * | The share price derived from the range of Company valuation in this opinion. |
| ** | The risk-free capital cost is derived from the yield to maturity of Government of Israel NIS-denominated debentures for duration similar to the exercise dates of stock option tranches 1-4. |
HOGLA-KIMBERLY Ltd. (hereinafter: "HOGLA") was incorporated in 1963, and later became a major provider of personal hygiene and consumables in Israel. In 1996, Kimberly Clark Corporation (hereinafter: "KC") acquired 49.9% of HOGLA shares, and in 2000 acquired further shares, such that it currently owns 50.1% of HOGLA shares. In Israel, HOGLA is engaged independently and via wholly-owned subsidiaries in production, import, marketing and sale of disposable paper products, diapers, female hygiene products, cleaning products etc. (hereinafter: "Israel operations").
In 1999, HOGLA started to develop the market for KC personal hygiene products in Turkey. Due to its population size and consumer trends, Turkey is considered a geography with high potential growth for personal hygiene products. HOGLA wholly owns a Turkey-resident company, KIMBERLY-CLARK TUKETIM MALLARI SANAYIVE TICARET (hereinafter: "KCTR"), which is engaged in production, marketing and sale of diapers and female hygiene products in Turkey. KCTR is the sole representative of KC in Turkey.
Below is a summary of HOGLA business results, on consolidated basis:
Consolidated income statement
| | | |
| | | 2006 | | | | 2007 | | | | 2008 | | | | 2009 | | | | 2010 | |
| | | NIS in millions | |
Revenues | | | 1,255 | | | | 1,376 | | | | 1,609 | | | | 1,727 | | | | 1,698 | |
Cost of Revenues | | | 884 | | | | 969 | | | | 1,098 | | | | 1,165 | | | | 1,164 | |
Gross income | | | 371 | | | | 407 | | | | 511 | | | | 562 | | | | 534 | |
Selling and marketing expenses | | | 269 | | | | 286 | | | | 309 | | | | 305 | | | | 288 | |
General and administrative expenses | | | 58 | | | | 60 | | | | 67 | | | | 63 | | | | 62 | |
Other expenses (revenues) | | | (1 | ) | | | - | | | | - | | | | - | | | | (4 | ) |
Operating income (loss) | | | 45 | | | | 62 | | | | 136 | | | | 194 | | | | 187 | |
Financing and other expenses | | | 26 | | | | 28 | | | | (1 | ) | | | (1 | ) | | | (3 | ) |
Pre-tax revenues (expenses) | | | 19 | | | | 34 | | | | 137 | | | | 195 | | | | 190 | |
Tax expense (benefit) | | | 36 | | | | 65 | | | | 47 | | | | 44 | | | | 46 | |
After-tax income of Company and subsidiaries | | | (17 | ) | | | (31 | ) | | | 90 | | | | 151 | | | | 145 | |
Minority interest in subsidiaries | | | 6 | | | | - | | | | - | | | | - | | | | - | |
Net income (loss) | | | (11 | ) | | | (31 | ) | | | 90 | | | | 151 | | | | 145 | |
EBITDA | | | 69 | | | | 88 | | | | 159 | | | | 223 | | | | 218 | |
Change in revenues | | | 9.5 | % | | | 9.6 | % | | | 16.9 | % | | | 7.3 | % | | | (1.7 | )% |
Gross margin | | | 29.6 | % | | | 29.6 | % | | | 31.8 | % | | | 32.5 | % | | | 31.5 | % |
Operating margin | | | 3.6 | % | | | 4.5 | % | | | 8.4 | % | | | 11.2 | % | | | 11.0 | % |
Net margin | | | (0.8 | )% | | | (2.2 | )% | | | 5.6 | % | | | 8.7 | % | | | 8.5 | % |
EBITDA | | | 5.5 | % | | | 6.4 | % | | | 9.9 | % | | | 12.9 | % | | | 12.9 | % |
Consolidated balance sheet
| | | December 31, 2009 | | | | December 31, 2010 | | | | | December 31, 2009 | | | | December 31, 2010 | |
| | | NIS in millions | | | | | NIS in millions | |
Cash and cash equivalents | | | 107 | | | | 17 | | Short-term borrowing from banks | | | 26 | | | | 37 | |
Trade receivables | | | 290 | | | | 289 | | Trade payables | | | 296 | | | | 330 | |
Other accounts receivable | | | 6 | | | | 7 | | Payables in respect of dividend | | | 40 | | | | 5 | |
Inventory | | | 181 | | | | 242 | | Others | | | 97 | | | | 79 | |
Total current assets | | | 584 | | | | 555 | | Total current liabilities | | | 459 | | | | 451 | |
Deferred taxes on income and others | | | 5 | | | | 5 | | Deferred taxes on income | | | 34 | | | | 35 | |
VAT receivable | | | 47 | | | | 51 | | Long-term borrowing net of current maturities | | | 34 | | | | 7 | |
Intangible and other assets | | | 19 | | | | 17 | | Liabilities with respect to employees, net | | | 8 | | | | 8 | |
Total long-term investments | | | 71 | | | | 73 | | Total long-term liabilities | | | 76 | | | | 50 | |
Fixed assets, net | | | 336 | | | | 352 | | Shareholders' equity | | | 456 | | | | 479 | |
Total assets | | | 991 | | | | 980 | | Total shareholders’ equity and liabilities | | | 991 | | | | 980 | |
Below is a summary of business results for Israel operations:
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Revenues | | | 1,060 | | | | 1,134 | | | | 1,209 | | | | 1,238 | | | | 1,229 | |
Gross income | | | 355 | | | | 380 | | | | 435 | | | | 475 | | | | 460 | |
Operating income | | | 128 | | | | 136 | | | | 169 | | | | 210 | | | | 194 | |
Change in revenues | | | 7.2 | % | | | 7.0 | % | | | 6.6 | % | | | 2.4 | % | | | (0.7 | )% |
Gross margin | | | 33.5 | % | | | 33.5 | % | | | 36.0 | % | | | 38.4 | % | | | 37.5 | % |
Operating margin | | | 12.1 | % | | | 12.0 | % | | | 14.0 | % | | | 17.0 | % | | | 15.8 | % |
| (a) | Products and competition |
Israel operations include production, marketing and distribution of the following product groups: diapers for children and adults, toilet paper, paper for home use (tissue, paper towels, wet wipes etc.), female hygiene products as well as cleaning and kitchen products.
Through 2008, HOGLA revenues grew at an average 7% annually, in 2009 growth slowed down to 2% annually, and in 2010 revenues declines slightly. The sharp decrease in growth rate is due to stronger competition from imports, which benefit from advantageous exchange rates and from changes in product mix. Sales of the two leading product groups, diapers and hygienic paper, constitute over 50% of sales in the domestic market.
HOGLA markets a range of products to all population segments, specializing in high-quality products. Demand for most Company products is relatively stable, and is primarily based on the population size, birth rates etc. Products offered on the domestic market are both locally-produced and imported, as follows:
Diapers
Alternative products for this product group are difficult to pinpoint - they are highly convenient and demand is derived from basic user needs. Demand for this product group is stable, and derived primarily from change in birth rates and population ageing. In the field of baby diapers, customers are relatively loyal to the brand, and impact of the economic crisis on demand was minimal. The compound aggregate growth rate (CAGR) for domestic demand in 2004-2010 is estimated at 2.4% annually, in terms of volume.
In Israel, two major competitors operate in this area: HOGLA with HUGGIES, TITULIM and other brands, and Procter & Gamble (P&G) with its Pampers brand13. All HOGLA diaper products are produced in Israel (except for imports designed to complement the product mix or in response to shortage of local production capacity from time to time), while all P&G products are imported. Domestic production offers HOGLA some operating, design and marketing advantages. P&G, on the other hand, has benefited in recent years from a stronger local currency, which effectively lowers the cost of imports denominated in foreign currency.
In 2010, HOGLA market share eroded due to stronger competition from P&G; the following are market shares (in volume terms) of competitors at retail chains:
| | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
HOGLA | | | 74 | % | | | 72 | % |
P&G | | | 18 | % | | | 22 | % |
SANO | | | 7 | % | | | 5 | % |
Others | | | 1 | % | | | 1 | % |
Total market | | | 100 | % | | | 100 | % |
Source: Nielsen Israel Ltd. |
The increase in SANO's market share since 2006, primarily at the expense of P&G, is due to better penetration of SANO products into discount chains. SANO products are not international brands.
13 P&G is also HOGLA's main competitor in female hygienic products.
A material change in diaper supply may result from importation of new brands to Israel, but this is a limited threat, due to consumer sensitivities to quality and safety of baby products, in the aftermath of several cases in recent years. KC and P&G brands are perceived as leading, safe and high-quality brands, and therefore it would seem that chances for success of other producers / importers in the domestic market over time are limited.
Hygienic paper
Toilet- and other hygienic paper have become part and parcel of the basic product list at every household and workplace. It would appear that demand for hygienic paper is also relatively stable, and is derived primarily from the population size and standards of living.
Toilet paper is a high-volume product, whose importation is of doubtful feasibility. Naturally, toilet paper supplies in Israel are locally produced, except for super-premium quality paper, which is imported.
HOGLA offers, in this operating segment, a varied product mix at different price- and quality levels to answer the needs of all demographics in Israel. HOGLA products are marketed under brands such as LILY, MOLLETT, KLEENEX and others. For the mid- to long-term, HOGLA benefits from higher standards of living, which result in consumers trending towards higher-quality products, which are identified with HOGLA. In this segment, HOGLA's market share reached 65% (in volume terms) in 2008, and in the past two years, the following market shares were recorded by competitors at retail chains:
| | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
HOGLA-Kimberly | | | 64 | % | | | 62 | % |
Private label* | | | 17 | % | | | 19 | % |
SANO | | | 14 | % | | | 16 | % |
SHANIV Paper Industries | | | 3 | % | | | 2 | % |
Others | | | 1 | % | | | 1 | % |
Total market | | | 100 | % | | | 100 | % |
* Private label brands of retail chains. | |
Source: Nielsen Israel Ltd. | |
Other products
Other products from HOGLA, which are also basic consumer products, are sold under the following brands: KOTEX, LILY (female hygiene), NICOLE (consumables for kitchen and home) and others. These products are in daily use in almost every household in Israel.
Definition of markets served by HOGLA
Due to the nature of HOGLA products, the size of the domestic market for its products is determined by two major variables:
This factor impacts the volume of consumption. Population growth rate in Israel decreased from 2-2.5% annually through 2000, to 1.8% annually on average between 2001-2010. The number of births over this period grew at a pace similar to the population growth rate.
| - | Consumer habits and higher living standards |
This factor impacts both the consumption volume of consumables, as well as the product mix and the price paid for these products. Examples of changes in consumption habits include use of diapers through an older age with babies, and the transition to using disposable towels instead of cloth towels. The increase in living standards may improve HOGLA sales and profitability.
HOGLA markets its products in two separate channels: Marketing to individual customers (households) by sales to consumer retailers, as well as marketing and sale to institutional customers. HOGLA sales in the institutional segment account for 20% of its revenues.
Marketing to individual consumers is via retail chain stores, drugstore (pharma) chains and private supermarkets. In recent years, the trend has been for stronger retail chains at the expense of private supermarkets, and proliferation of smaller retail chains at the expense of larger ones.
HOGLA sales to the two major retail chains in 2007-2009 reached a record 33% of HOGLA sales. In 2010, this trend was reversed and sales to these chains declined to 30% of HOGLA sales, as follows:
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions | |
SUPERSOL Ltd. | | | 185 | | | | 212 | | | | 213 | | | | 242 | | | | 224 | |
Customer B | | | 138 | | | | 162 | | | | 169 | | | | 163 | | | | 143 | |
Total two major customers | | | 323 | | | | 374 | | | | 383 | | | | 405 | | | | 367 | |
Percentage of HOGLA revenues in Israel | | | 30 | % | | | 33 | % | | | 32 | % | | | 33 | % | | | 30 | % |
To the institutional market HOGLA supplies diapers, female hygiene products, disposable towels, cleaning products etc. Customers in the institutional market are hospitals (general, maternity and nursing), government, HMOs, business real estate management companies, large and medium businesses etc. Sales to these customers are made by HOGLA's Sales Department, which is separate from sales to retail chains. Sales to small institutional customers are made by wholesalers. HOGLA is not dependent on any customer in the institutional segment.
| (c) | Raw materials and suppliers |
HOGLA uses three types of raw materials: Raw materials purchased from overseas suppliers, goods purchased overseas for trading and raw materials and trading goods purchased from domestic suppliers.
Raw materials purchased overseas are intended for production of diapers and tissue paper (toilet paper), and are mostly purchased under global procurement agreements of KC.
Goods imported for trading are primarily purchased from KC group companies, including female hygiene products, certain types of diapers, certain types of toilet- and tissue paper etc.
Domestic procurement includes raw material purchase - paper and cardboard waste from AMNIR and goods for trading from various domestic suppliers.
In addition to using the KC procurement system, HOGLA also receives professional knowledge and support from KC world wide. For these services, HOGLA pays royalties for some of its products. In recent years, these royalties were on average 2.4% of HOGLA revenues in Israel.
HOGLA purchases power and steam for its plant at HADERA from HADERA PAPER Infrastructure14. Upon termination of the agreement for supply of natural gas under the current agreement with YAM TETHIS partners, in June 2011, energy costs are expected to rise. The impact of termination of this agreement on HOGLA would be limited, because the plants at AFULA and HADERA do not purchase power and steam from HADERA PAPER Infrastructure.
| (d) | Production and distribution |
The AFULA diaper-producing plant, with annual production capacity of 500 million children diapers and 42 million adult diapers, utilizes most of its production capacity. The plant was most recently upgraded in 2005, and since then the Company has been improving its production capacity by optimizing production so as to meet domestic demand. In late 2010, the Company approved a $4 million investment in upgrading production lines.
Toilet- and tissue paper is produced at two plants: in HADERA and in NAHARIA, with total annual production capacity of 58 thousand tons, which is fully utilized. HOGLA has two toilet paper processing systems (rolling) with annual production capacity of 44 thousand tons.
14 For production of power and steam, see section 3a(1) above.
HOGLA operates its distribution system out of its facilities in TZRIFIN and HAIFA. Due to the high volume and regular use of HOGLA products, customers maintain minimum inventory, which requires high-quality distribution service. The distribution department operates a fleet of 98 trucks, some under operating leases.
Strengths
| - | Strong brands and reputation as producer of high-quality products. |
| - | HOGLA is controlled by KC - a world-leading international conglomerate in the operating segments on which HOGLA is focused. HOGLA has access to KC's R&D and procurement systems. |
| - | HOGLA products have relatively large and stable market shares in most of its operating segments. |
| - | The internal sales and distribution departments offer operating flexibility and enable high-quality customer service. |
| - | HOGLA products are basic products which enjoy a relatively stable demand. Importation of some HOGLA products is not feasible, due to their high volume - except for diapers. |
| - | Production capacity is fully utilized in most production systems. |
| - | Restrictions on approaching overseas markets because of ownership by multi-national conglomerate. |
| - | Lack of leverage despite high debt capacity. Company leverage improves its value to equity holders. Bank loan obtained by HOGLA in 2008 for financing KCTR operations, has been mostly repaid. |
Opportunities
| - | Entry into new operating segments, synergetic with Israel operations, as was the case in cleaning and hygiene products for home use ("NICOLE"). |
| - | Relying on KC product development allows the Company to introduce new products developed world-wide by KC. |
| - | Improving living standards in Israel over time reflected in improved HOGLA product mix and margins. |
| - | Improvement in KCTR results. |
Threats
| - | Worsening of the global economic crisis may result in excess production capacity, which would be reflected, inter alia, in excess industrial production capacity and optional importation of goods from overseas at rock-bottom prices. |
| - | To date, KCTR investments and losses have been financed by HOGLA. Continued losses would require further capital infusion to KCTR. |
| - | HOGLA purchases most of its raw material and some of the products it trades in foreign currency, while its sales are made in NIS. Therefore, HOGLA is exposed to fluctuations in commodity prices and exchange rates. HOGLA enters into exchange rate hedging transactions for terms of several months. Rise in commodity prices or sharp devaluation of the NIS may impact Company profitability over the short term. Over the mid- to long term, the market is expected to adjust NIS-denominated prices to these changes, because competitors also import their raw materials or products (diapers, female hygiene). |
| - | Continued strength of the NIS improves attractiveness of product importation compared to production in Israel. |
| - | High dependence on few brands based on public trust (baby products, body health etc.) Discovery of a malfunction resulting in health risk in these products may severely impact brand strength. |
| - | Dependence on customers - sales to two retail chains account for one third of HOGLA sales. |
| - | Continued penetration of private labels by retail chains may impact HOGLA profitability. |
| - | The higher energy costs of the Hogla plant in Hadera as a result of the anticipated increase in the price of natural gas purchased by Hadera Paper Infrastructures may adversely affect the results of Hogla in Israel. |
| (2) | Turkey operations (KCTR) |
KCTR is engaged in production and marketing of diapers (HUGGIES brand) and in import and marketing of female hygiene products (KOTEX brand).
KC has identified the Turkish market as having strong growth potential, and KCTR has been defined as KC's regional operations center. This is due to the population size (over 77 million), relatively high growth and birth rates, proximity to Europe and anticipated change in local consumer preferences. Note that operations in Turkey entail specific risk, such as geo-political unrest, exposure to financial and economic crises, inflation risk and devaluation of the local currency.
KC has formulated a multi-year strategic plan for KCTR, which has been implemented since 2005. Currently, KCTR operates based on a strategic plan for 2009-2015, and is expected to reach operating profitability in 2012.
Despite the global economic crisis, which specifically impacts Turkey, KCTR revenues in NIS terms (convenience translation) continued to grow in 2009-2012, with improving margins. Below is a summary of KCTR business results:
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions, convenience translation | |
Revenues | | | 216 | | | | 260 | | | | 413 | | | | 494 | | | | 495 | |
Gross income | | | 16 | | | | 28 | | | | 75 | | | | 86 | | | | 73 | |
Operating loss | | | (83 | ) | | | (74 | ) | | | (33 | ) | | | (16 | ) | | | (10 | ) |
Change in revenues | | | 14.7 | % | | | 20.6 | % | | | 58.6 | % | | | 19.6 | % | | | 0.3 | % |
Gross margin | | | 7.2 | % | | | 10.7 | % | | | 18.3 | % | | | 17.5 | % | | | 14.8 | % |
Operating loss rate | | | (38.5% | ) | | | (28.3% | ) | | | (8.1% | ) | | | (3.3% | ) | | | (2.1% | ) |
HOGLA views KCTR as a strategic investment and major future growth engine. HOGLA's CEO has served as CEO of KCTR until the beginning of 2009, and is currently serving as CEO of Hogla. KCTR operations are wholly financed by equity provided by HOGLA on regular basis over the past years. Beyond joint management, KCTR and HOGLA cooperate on ad-hoc basis with regard to production, marketing and other issues. There is no material commercial activity between these companies.
| (a) | Products and competition |
Products in the diaper segment are marketed on the domestic market and exported using the HUGGIES brand. KCTR's strategic plan is based on expansion of domestic market operations at the expense of exports, which is currently used to ensure full utilization of KCTR's production capacity.
Since KC defined the Turkish market as a strategic target, KCTR's market share in the diaper market (in monetary terms) has doubled:
| | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
PRIMA | | | 28.6 | % | | | 30.9 | % | | | 32.1 | % | | | 39.0 | % |
MOLFIX | | | 21.7 | % | | | 22.8 | % | | | 19.2 | % | | | 21.0 | % |
CANBEBE | | | 14.5 | % | | | 11.8 | % | | | 10.6 | % | | | 10.0 | % |
HUGGIES | | | 5.7 | % | | | 6.8 | % | | | 10.4 | % | | | 9.9 | % |
Others | | | 29.5 | % | | | 27.7 | % | | | 27.7 | % | | | 20.1 | % |
Total | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % |
Source: Nielsen Turkey. | | | | | |
Penetration of the female hygiene product market started in 2006, and KCTR's market share (in monetary terms) is currently estimated at 10.5%:
| | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
P&G | | | 60.9 | % | | | 58.7 | % | | | 55.4 | % | | | 56.0 | % |
MOLPED | | | 17.8 | % | | | 18.0 | % | | | 19.4 | % | | | 20.0 | % |
KOTEX | | | 3.3 | % | | | 6.4 | % | | | 9.5 | % | | | 10.5 | % |
Others | | | 18.0 | % | | | 16.9 | % | | | 15.7 | % | | | 13.5 | % |
Total | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % |
Source: Nielsen Turkey. | | | | | |
KCTR strives to increase the market share of HUGGIES and KOTEX products in the domestic market. Market penetration is typically accompanied by pricing pressures, and to date, prices have remained low compared to other European markets and to Israel. The diaper market in Turkey is highly decentralized with many players. In more developed economies, such markets have undergone consolidation by M&A or by small players exiting the market.
KCTR products for the domestic market are marketed to retail chains and to the private market. KCTR directly markets and sells its products to retail chains.
Sales to the private market are made by Unilever Turkey. KCTR and Unilever signed the strategic cooperation agreement in March 2007. According to this agreement, Unilever will provide selling, distribution and collection services for KCTR products in Turkey, except for sales to nation-wide retail chains. The agreement with Unilever, which owns a nation-wide distribution network, allows KCTR access to private market points of sale. KCTR believes it is not dependent on Unilever Turkey, and should the agreement be terminated, it would not incur excessive expenses with respect to replacement of this distributor.
The Company exports its products to 20 countries, with the major export markets being Eastern European countries and South Africa. Product exports are in conjunction with KC's world-wide production and distribution facilities.
| (c) | Production, raw materials and suppliers |
Most of the diaper products are produced at KCTR's plant in Turkey, which has been extended and improved in recent years, and is not considered to be one of the most efficient KC plants in Europe. Production capacity at this plant has increased by 500 million diapers annually in 2007, and by a further 100 million diapers in 2010 as a result of optimizing the production process, to reach annual production capacity of 1.2 billion diapers in late 2010, and is operating at full capacity.
KCTR is putting in place its production facility for female hygiene products in Turkey, which is designed to become the regional production center for such products. The investment in this production line is estimated at $8 million.
Similarly to HOGLA, KCTR makes use of the KC procurement system to purchase most of its raw materials. KCTR believes it is not dependent on raw material suppliers.
Most of the raw materials are purchased overseas, in USD or EUR, hence KCTR is exposed to exchange rate fluctuations of the local currency, in which it sets prices for its products on the domestic market. The Turkish Lira is relatively volatile compared to other currencies. Exportation of goods reduces, to a large degree, KCTR's exposure to local currency fluctuations.
Strengths
| - | Turkey identified as strategic target country for KC, and KCTR defined as regional center for KC. |
| - | Access to KC systems, including technology, procurement etc. |
| - | KCTR established as third major player in the diaper and female hygiene market in Turkey within a few years. |
| - | Financing resources available for development of market and production in Turkey, without requiring foreign capital, which proved critical during the economic crisis, which made raising financing a challenge. |
| - | KCTR is identified as a future growth engine for HOGLA, since the market in Israel is fairly saturated. |
Weaknesses
| - | Exposure to Turkish economy, which is well known for political, financial and economic crises, inflation, currency devaluation etc. |
| - | Currency exposure, since most KCTR raw materials are purchased in foreign currency and its products are sold for Turkish Lira on the domestic market. Exportation of company products reduces this exposure to a large extent. |
| - | The Turkish market typically has lower prices than in European countries and in Israel, primarily for diapers, which impacts KCTR profitability. |
Opportunities
| - | Consolidation of Turkish market to be naturally accompanied by higher product prices, which would allow for reasonable profitability. |
| - | Renewed growth of Turkish economy and revaluation of local currency. |
| - | Continued growth in KCTR market share, mainly for diapers. |
| - | Establishment of local production of female hygiene products. |
Threats
| - | Worsening of the economic crisis in Turkey may extend KCTR losses and impact its strategic objectives. |
| - | Tougher price war in diaper market. |
| - | Discontinuation of contract with Unilever Turkey. |
| - | Discontinuation of product exports to KC centers around the world. |
| - | Payment as per demand from Turkish tax authorities dated February 2010, as set forth in section 4b(1) below, of material amounts, may destabilize KCTR's financial standing. |
Below is a summary of HOGLA consolidated financial statements:
Consolidated income statement
| | | 2006 | | | | 2007 | | | | 2008 | | | | 2009 | | | | 2010 | |
| | | NIS in millions | |
Revenues | | | 1,255 | | | | 1,376 | | | | 1,609 | | | | 1,727 | | | | 1,698 | |
Cost of Revenues | | | 884 | | | | 969 | | | | 1,098 | | | | 1,165 | | | | 1,164 | |
Gross income | | | 371 | | | | 407 | | | | 511 | | | | 562 | | | | 534 | |
Selling and marketing expenses | | | 269 | | | | 286 | | | | 309 | | | | 305 | | | | 288 | |
General and administrative expenses | | | 58 | | | | 60 | | | | 67 | | | | 63 | | | | 62 | |
Other expenses (revenues) | | | (1 | ) | | | - | | | | - | | | | - | | | | (4 | ) |
Operating income (loss) | | | 45 | | | | 62 | | | | 136 | | | | 194 | | | | 187 | |
Financing and other expenses | | | 26 | | | | 28 | | | | (1 | ) | | | (1 | ) | | | (3 | ) |
Pre-tax revenues (expenses) | | | 19 | | | | 34 | | | | 137 | | | | 195 | | | | 190 | |
Tax expense (benefit) | | | 36 | | | | 65 | | | | 47 | | | | 44 | | | | 46 | |
After-tax income of Company and subsidiaries | | | (17 | ) | | | (31 | ) | | | 90 | | | | 151 | | | | 145 | |
Minority interest in subsidiaries | | | 6 | | | | - | | | | - | | | | | | | | - | |
Net income (loss) | | | (11 | ) | | | (31 | ) | | | 90 | | | | 151 | | | | 145 | |
EBITDA | | | 69 | | | | 88 | | | | 159 | | | | 223 | | | | 218 | |
Change in revenues | | | 9.5 | % | | | 9.6 | % | | | 16.9 | % | | | 7.3 | % | | | (1.7 | )% |
Gross margin | | | 29.6 | % | | | 29.6 | % | | | 31.8 | % | | | 32.5 | % | | | 31.5 | % |
Operating margin | | | 3.6 | % | | | 4.5 | % | | | 8.4 | % | | | 11.2 | % | | | 11.0 | % |
Net margin | | | (0.8 | )% | | | (2.2 | )% | | | 5.6 | % | | | 8.7 | % | | | 8.5 | % |
EBITDA | | | 5.5 | % | | | 6.4 | % | | | 9.9 | % | | | 12.9 | % | | | 12.9 | % |
Consolidated balance sheet
| | December 31, 2009 | | | December 31, 2010 | | | | December 31, 2009 | | | December 31, 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions | | | | NIS in millions | |
Cash and cash equivalents | | | 107 | | | | 17 | | Short-term borrowing from banks | | | 26 | | | | 37 | |
Trade receivables | | | 290 | | | | 289 | | Trade payables | | | 296 | | | | 330 | |
Other accounts receivable | | | 6 | | | | 7 | | Payables in respect of dividend | | | 40 | | | | 5 | |
Inventory | | | 181 | | | | 242 | | Others | | | 97 | | | | 79 | |
Total current assets | | | 584 | | | | 555 | | Total current liabilities | | | 459 | | | | 451 | |
Deferred taxes on income and others | | | 5 | | | | 5 | | Deferred taxes on income | | | 34 | | | | 35 | |
VAT receivable | | | 47 | | | | 51 | | Long-term borrowing net of current maturities | | | 34 | | | | 7 | |
Intangible and other assets | | | 19 | | | | 17 | | Liabilities with respect to employees, net | | | 8 | | | | 8 | |
Total long-term investments | | | 71 | | | | 73 | | Total long-term liabilities | | | 76 | | | | 50 | |
Fixed assets, net | | | 336 | | | | 352 | | Shareholders' equity | | | 456 | | | | 479 | |
Total assets | | | 991 | | | | 980 | | Total shareholders’ equity and liabilities | | | 991 | | | | 980 | |
| (1) | Revenues and profitability |
Israel operations
HOGLA revenues in Israel grew on average by 7% annually between 2005-2008, but this trend was reversed in 2009, with revenues growing at only 2%, and decreasing by 1% in 2010. Gross margin of Israel operations increased in recent years from 33% in 2006-2007, to 36-38% in 2009-2010. The growth in margins in the past two years is due to lower prices of raw materials due to the global economic crisis, but this trend was reversed in 2010. This compares with the relative stability of HOGLA product prices. The operating margin grew at a similar pace to that of gross margin. Below is a summary of business results of HOGLA in Israel:
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Revenues | | | 1,060 | | | | 1,134 | | | | 1,209 | | | | 1,238 | | | | 1,229 | |
Gross income | | | 355 | | | | 380 | | | | 435 | | | | 475 | | | | 460 | |
Operating income | | | 128 | | | | 136 | | | | 169 | | | | 210 | | | | 194 | |
Change in revenues | | | 7.2 | % | | | 7.0 | % | | | 6.6 | % | | | 2.4 | % | | | (0.7 | )% |
Gross margin | | | 33.5 | % | | | 33.5 | % | | | 36.0 | % | | | 38.4 | % | | | 37.5 | % |
Operating margin | | | 12.1 | % | | | 12.0 | % | | | 14.0 | % | | | 17.0 | % | | | 15.8 | % |
The ratio of materials (raw materials and goods purchased for commercial operations) to revenues at HOGLA decreased in recent years from an average 47% in 2006-2007 to 44% in 2008-2010, due to lower material cost as a result of the economic crisis. In 2010, raw material prices started to climb, but was mostly offset by the lower exchange rates.
Selling and marketing expenses in Israel are primarily composed of variable expenses for transportation, advertising and royalties paid to KC, which in 2010 accounted for 62% of all selling and marketing expenses. The ratio of variable selling and marketing expenses to revenues at HOGLA in recent years was on average 12%. For royalties paid to KC at 2.5% of HOGLA revenues on average, see section 4a(3) above.
Cost of labor, under selling and marketing expenses and under general and administrative expenses, increased on average at 2% annually between 2008-2010. Composition of HOGLA overheads in Israel is as follows:
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Cost of labor | | | 56 | | | | 66 | | | | 66 | | | | 70 | | | | 71 | |
Transportation, shipping and maintenance | | | 44 | | | | 49 | | | | 56 | | | | 54 | | | | 56 | |
Advertising and sales promotion | | | 52 | | | | 44 | | | | 49 | | | | 48 | | | | 48 | |
Commissions | | | 1 | | | | 1 | | | | 1 | | | | 1 | | | | 0 | |
Royalties | | | 26 | | | | 29 | | | | 30 | | | | 31 | | | | 30 | |
Others | | | 7 | | | | 8 | | | | 10 | | | | 9 | | | | 9 | |
Depreciation | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | | | 1 | |
Total selling and marketing expenses | | | 187 | | | | 200 | | | | 212 | | | | 214 | | | | 216 | |
Cost of labor | | | 20 | | | | 23 | | | | 27 | | | | 29 | | | | 25 | |
Administration and IT service | | | 11 | | | | 12 | | | | 13 | | | | 13 | | | | 14 | |
Office expenses | | | 5 | | | | 5 | | | | 4 | | | | 3 | | | | 4 | |
Provision for doubtful debt | | | 0 | | | | (4 | ) | | | 0 | | | | (4 | ) | | | (1 | ) |
Others | | | 5 | | | | 7 | | | | 10 | | | | 10 | | | | 9 | |
Total general and administrative expenses | | | 41 | | | | 44 | | | | 54 | | | | 51 | | | | 51 | |
Change in cost of labor | | | 13.1 | % | | | 18.0 | % | | | 3.2 | % | | | 7.1 | % | | | (2.5 | )% |
Variable selling and marketing expenses as percentage of revenues* | | | 12.2 | % | | | 11.6 | % | | | 12.0 | % | | | 11.5 | % | | | 11.7 | % |
Change in general and administrative expenses** | | | (0.5 | )% | | | 16.3 | % | | | 11.9 | % | | | (3.8 | )% | | | 0.7 | % |
* Excluding labor and doubtful debt. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
HOGLA's average effective tax rate in recent years was similar to the statutory tax rate.
KCTR operations
KCTR revenues grew at double-digit pace in recent years - 59% and 20% in 2008 and 2009, respectively. In 2010, KCTR revenues (in NIS terms) remained unchanged. Its revenues (in local currency) grew by 5% in 2010. Gross margin increased from 7% in 2006 to 18% in 2008-2009, due to improved product mix, production optimization and lower raw material prices due to the economic crisis, and decreased by 15% in 2010, primarily due to higher cost of labor in production, due to pay increase and additional staffing, along with higher cost of raw materials. The percentage operating loss decreased from 39% in 2006 to 2% in 2010, due to economies of scale resulting from rapid growth of KCTR business:
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions, convenience translation | |
Revenues | | | 216 | | | | 260 | | | | 413 | | | | 494 | | | | 495 | |
Gross income | | | 16 | | | | 28 | | | | 75 | | | | 86 | | | | 73 | |
Operating loss | | | (83 | ) | | | (74 | ) | | | (33 | ) | | | (16 | ) | | | (10 | ) |
Change in revenues | | | 14.7 | % | | | 20.6 | % | | | 58.6 | % | | | 19.6 | % | | | 0.3 | % |
Gross margin | | | 7.2 | % | | | 10.7 | % | | | 18.3 | % | | | 17.5 | % | | | 14.8 | % |
Operating loss rate | | | (38.5 | )% | | | (28.3 | )% | | | (8.1 | )% | | | (3.3 | )% | | | (2.1 | )% |
The ratio of cost of materials (raw materials and imported goods for trading) to revenues at KCTR decreased in recent years from 78% in 2006 to 70% in 2008, and then increased in 2009-2010 to 71-73% of revenues.
Selling and marketing expenses at KCTR are primarily composed of variable expenses for transportation and advertising, which account for 65% of total selling and marketing expenses in 2010. The ratio of variable selling and marketing expenses to revenues at KCTR decreased from 33% in 2006 to 12% in 2010 - due to lower advertising budget and higher revenues at KCTR.
Cost of labor, under selling and marketing expenses and under general and administrative expenses, increased at double-digit pace in 2006-2008. This trend was reversed in 2009, due to improved efficiency of selling and marketing:
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions, convenience translation | |
Cost of labor | | | 10 | | | | 12 | | | | 16 | | | | 11 | | | | 13 | |
Transportation, shipping and maintenance | | | 33 | | | | 26 | | | | 38 | | | | 29 | | | | 29 | |
Advertising and sales promotion | | | 29 | | | | 34 | | | | 36 | | | | 35 | | | | 19 | |
Others | | | 10 | | | | 14 | | | | 6 | | | | 16 | | | | 12 | |
Total selling and marketing expenses | | | 82 | | | | 86 | | | | 97 | | | | 91 | | | | 72 | |
Cost of labor | | | 9 | | | | 9 | | | | 8 | | | | 7 | | | | 6 | |
Administration and IT service | | | 1 | | | | 1 | | | | 1 | | | | 1 | | | | 1 | |
Others | | | 8 | | | | 6 | | | | 3 | | | | 3 | | | | 4 | |
Total general and administrative expenses | | | 17 | | | | 16 | | | | 12 | | | | 12 | | | | 11 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Change in cost of labor | | | 29.0 | % | | | 10.4 | % | | | 19.4 | % | | | (24.8 | )% | | | 0.1 | % |
Variable selling and marketing expenses as percentage of revenues* | | | 33.2 | % | | | 28.3 | % | | | 19.5 | % | | | 16.1 | % | | | 12.1 | % |
Change in general and administrative expenses | | | 57.8 | % | | | (17.5 | )% | | | (45.8 | )% | | | 13.0 | % | | | 30.4 | % |
* Excluding labor. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
On February 16, 2010 KCTR received notification from the Tax Authority in Turkey, whereby it is required to pay stamp duty and tax with respect to capital injection by HOGLA to finance KCTR, plus interest and fines, amounting to $89 million.
For the first item (stamp duty), KCTR paid $106 thousand in July 2010. For the second item, taxation of capital transfer from HOGLA to KCTR, KCTR believes, based on the opinion of its tax consultants and the appeal it filed with the Court, that the likelihood of being required to pay additional taxes is low. No provision for this issue has been recorded on financial statements of either KCTR or HADERA PAPER.
Analysis of the consolidated balance sheet indicates that HOGLA operations are primarily financed using shareholders' equity. In 2008, HOGLA borrowed for the first time to finance its investment in KCTR. As of the December 31, 2010, most of this debt has been repaid and net financing debt for HOGLA, on consolidated basis as of December 31, 2010, amounted to only NIS 19 million:
| | December 31, 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Short-term credit from banks | | | 37 | |
Payables in respect of dividend | | | 5 | |
Long term borrowing | | | 7 | |
Long-term deferred income tax, net | | | 30 | |
Liabilities with respect to employees, net | | | 8 | |
Total financial liabilities | | | 87 | |
Less: | | | | |
Cash and cash equivalents | | | 17 | |
VAT receivable | | | 51 | |
Net financial debt | | | 19 | |
In 2009 and 2010, the HOGLA Board of Directors approved dividend distributions amounting to NIS 133 million and NIS 100 million, respectively.
| (3) | Working capital requirements |
Operating working capital used for operations in Israel increased in the first half of 2009, primarily due to increase in trade receivables, with change in inventory and in trade payables offsetting each other out. Working capital as of December 31, 2010 amounted to 9% of revenues in Israel:
| | December 31, 2009 | | | December 31, 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Trade receivables | | | 227 | | | | 220 | |
Inventory | | | 121 | | | | 158 | |
Trade payables | | | 241 | | | | 270 | |
Operating working capital, Net | | | 107 | | | | 108 | |
Percentage of revenues | | | 9 | % | | | 9 | % |
Operating working capital used for operations in Turkey decreased in late 2009 to 14% of revenues, due to aggressive inventory management. In 2010, this ratio increased to a typical level for operations, due to inventory renewal:
| | December 31, 2009 | | | December 31, 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Trade receivables | | | 63 | | | | 69 | |
Inventory | | | 59 | | | | 83 | |
Trade payables | | | 55 | | | | 60 | |
Operating working capital, Net | | | 67 | | | | 93 | |
Percentage of revenues | | | 14 | % | | | 19 | % |
| (4) | Investment and depreciation |
In recent years, HOGLA has invested amounts in excess of depreciation, in order to resolve production bottlenecks and to increase production capacity in both Israel and Turkey. The following are investment and depreciation on HOGLA consolidated financial statements:
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Investment | | | 28 | | | | 43 | | | | 48 | | | | 43 | | | | 63 | |
Depreciation | | | 24 | | | | 27 | | | | 24 | | | | 29 | | | | 31 | |
Investment to depreciation ratio | | | 114 | % | | | 161 | % | | | 205 | % | | | 146 | % | | | 203 | % |
The value of the HOGLA shareholders' equity, on a consolidated basis, is estimated between NIS 1,778-1,958 million and the value of Company holding stake in HOGLA (49.9%) is estimated between NIS 887-977 million.
HOGLA was valuated using the Discounted Cash Flow method (DCF); for valuation methodology see section 2b above.
Revenues
Operations in Israel are derived from population size, changes in consumer habits and living standards. Subject to working assumptions with regard to the financial crisis (see section 2c above) and reversal of the growth trend in revenues in the past two years, we assume no real change in revenues in Israel in 2011-2014 and 1.5% annual revenue growth in 2015 and there after.
The business forecast assumes that KCTR revenues would grow at 1%, 21%, 11%, 7% and 4% annually in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, respectively. Revenues would grow at 1.5% annually in 2016 and there after. This compares with revenue growth of 20% and 5% in foreign currency terms (20% and 0% in convenience translation to NIS) in 2009 and 2010, respectively.
Cost of Revenues
We assume that the ratio of cost of materials to revenues in Israel would increase over the forecast period to an average 45%, compared to an average 43% in 2009-2010, due to the assumption that higher raw material prices world-wide would also be reflected in the domestic market. The ratio of other production costs to revenues in Israel during the forecast period would be 10%, compared to 9.5% in 2009-2010, due to expected higher prices of natural gas purchased by HADER PAPER Infrastructure. Note that HOGLA production facilities at AFULA and NAHARIA do not purchase power and steam from HADERA PAPER Infrastructure. We assume that the ratio of cost of labor to revenues would grow at 7% in year 1 of the forecast, and at 1.5% annually in year 2 and there after.
As for operations in Turkey, we assume that the ration of cost of materials to revenues would be 74%, 73%, 72% and 70% in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, respectively, and would then remain stable at 68% in 2015 and there after, compared to 71% and 72% in 2009 and 2010, respectively. We assume that the ratio of other production costs to revenues in Turkey would gradually decline over the forecast period, from 3.6% in 2011 to 3.0% over the long term, compared to 3.3% and 3.6% in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The ratio of labor costs to revenues would increase by 5% in 2011 and by 1.5% annually in 2012 and there after. These assumptions reflect continued expectations for higher raw material prices in the first years of the forecast period, along with production optimization and change in product mix due to construction of the production line for female hygiene products in 2011-2012, in accordance with the KCTR strategic plan.
Overhead
We assume that in Israel, the cost of labor under selling and marketing expenses and under general and administrative expenses, as well as non-payroll general and administrative expenses, would increase by 1.5% annually over the forecast period. We assume that non-payroll selling and marketing expenses would be at 12% of revenues in Israel - similar to 2008 and the first half of 2009.
We assume that in Turkey, the cost of labor under selling and marketing expenses and under general and administrative expenses would grow by 5% in 2011 and by 1.5% annually in 2012 and there after. Non-payroll general and administrative expenses in the model would increase by 1.5% annually over the forecast period. We assume that non-payroll selling and marketing expenses during the forecast period would be at 8% of KCTR revenues, compared to 10% in 2010, due to expected reduction in advertising budget.
Taxation
In absence of approved investment plans and other tax benefits, and based on past experience, we assume that the effective tax rate for HOGLA in Israel over the forecast period would be the same as the statutory tax rate.
For determination of the tax rate during the forecast period, see section 2c above.
In absence of past experience at KCTR, we assume that the applicable tax rate during the forecast period would be the statutory tax rate in Turkey - 20%. KCTR has carry-forward tax losses for which no deferred taxes were recorded on the financial statements, due to restrictions on utilization of carry-forward tax losses in Turkey, primarily the 5-year restriction on offsetting such losses.
In view of the time restriction on utilization of KCTR carry-forward tax losses, and due to the Tax Authority's demand from February 2010, as set forth in section 4b(1) above, we did not attribute any value to income tax benefit / liability in Turkey.
After-tax operating income
Below is the summary business forecast in Israel, based on the assumptions above:
| | 2010 | | | 2011 | | | 2012 | | | 2013 | | | 2014 | | | 2015 | | | 2016 | | | 2017 | | | Typical year | |
| | Actual | | | Forecast | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Revenues | | | 1,229 | | | | 1,229 | | | | 1,229 | | | | 1,229 | | | | 1,229 | | | | 1,248 | | | | 1,266 | | | | 1,285 | | | | 1,304 | |
Cost of Revenues | | | 769 | | | | 781 | | | | 787 | | | | 788 | | | | 790 | | | | 801 | | | | 813 | | | | 825 | | | | 837 | |
Gross income | | | 460 | | | | 448 | | | | 442 | | | | 441 | | | | 439 | | | | 446 | | | | 453 | | | | 460 | | | | 468 | |
Selling and marketing expenses | | | 216 | | | | 219 | | | | 220 | | | | 221 | | | | 222 | | | | 226 | | | | 229 | | | | 232 | | | | 236 | |
General and administrative expenses | | | 51 | | | | 53 | | | | 55 | | | | 57 | | | | 59 | | | | 61 | | | | 62 | | | | 64 | | | | 66 | |
Operating income | | | 194 | | | | 176 | | | | 167 | | | | 163 | | | | 159 | | | | 160 | | | | 162 | | | | 164 | | | | 166 | |
Effective tax rate | | | | | | | 24.0 | % | | | 23.0 | % | | | 22.0 | % | | | 21.0 | % | | | 20.0 | % | | | 18.0 | % | | | 18.0 | % | | | 18.0 | % |
Tax | | | | | | | (42 | ) | | | (38 | ) | | | (36 | ) | | | (33 | ) | | | (32 | ) | | | (29 | ) | | | (29 | ) | | | (30 | ) |
After-tax operating income | | | | | | | 134 | | | | 129 | | | | 127 | | | | 125 | | | | 128 | | | | 133 | | | | 134 | | | | 136 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Change in revenues | | | (0.7 | )% | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 1.5 | % | | | 1.5 | % | | | 1.5 | % | | | 1.5 | % |
Gross margin | | | 37.5 | % | | | 36.5 | % | | | 36.0 | % | | | 35.9 | % | | | 35.8 | % | | | 35.8 | % | | | 35.8 | % | | | 35.8 | % | | | 35.9 | % |
Operating margin | | | 15.8 | % | | | 14.3 | % | | | 13.6 | % | | | 13.2 | % | | | 12.9 | % | | | 12.8 | % | | | 12.8 | % | | | 12.7 | % | | | 12.7 | % |
Below is the summary business forecast for KCTR, based on the assumptions above:
| | 2010 | | | 2011 | | | 2012 | | | 2013 | | | 2014 | | | 2015 | | | 2016 | | | 2017 | | | Typical year | |
| | Actual | | | Forecast | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Revenues | | | 495 | | | | 502 | | | | 609 | | | | 675 | | | | 720 | | | | 746 | | | | 757 | | | | 769 | | | | 780 | |
Cost of Revenues | | | 422 | | | | 437 | | | | 518 | | | | 561 | | | | 581 | | | | 588 | | | | 596 | | | | 604 | | | | 613 | |
Gross income | | | 73 | | | | 65 | | | | 91 | | | | 114 | | | | 139 | | | | 158 | | | | 161 | | | | 165 | | | | 167 | |
Selling and marketing expenses | | | 72 | | | | 64 | | | | 73 | | | | 79 | | | | 82 | | | | 85 | | | | 86 | | | | 87 | | | | 89 | |
General and administrative expenses | | | 11 | | | | 11 | | | | 12 | | | | 12 | | | | 12 | | | | 12 | | | | 12 | | | | 12 | | | | 13 | |
Operating income | | | (10 | ) | | | (10 | ) | | | 6 | | | | 23 | | | | 45 | | | | 61 | | | | 63 | | | | 65 | | | | 66 | |
Effective tax rate* | | | | | | | 20 | % | | | 20 | % | | | 20 | % | | | 20 | % | | | 20 | % | | | 20 | % | | | 20 | % | | | 20 | % |
Tax | | | | | | | 2 | | | | (1 | ) | | | (5 | ) | | | (9 | ) | | | (12 | ) | | | (13 | ) | | | (13 | ) | | | (13 | ) |
After-tax operating income | | | | | | | (8 | ) | | | 5 | | | | 19 | | | | 36 | | | | 49 | | | | 50 | | | | 52 | | | | 53 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Change in revenues | | | 0.3 | % | | | 1.3 | % | | | 21.2 | % | | | 10.9 | % | | | 6.7 | % | | | 3.6 | % | | | 1.5 | % | | | 1.5 | % | | | 1.5 | % |
Gross margin | | | 14.8 | % | | | 13.0 | % | | | 14.9 | % | | | 16.8 | % | | | 19.4 | % | | | 21.1 | % | | | 21.3 | % | | | 21.4 | % | | | 21.4 | % |
Operating margin | | | (2.1 | )% | | | (2.1 | )% | | | 1.0 | % | | | 3.4 | % | | | 6.3 | % | | | 8.1 | % | | | 8.3 | % | | | 8.4 | % | | | 8.4 | % |
* In this forecast, the effective tax rate is identical to the statutory tax rate in Turkey. | |
Investment and depreciation
We assume that investment in Israel over the forecast period would be equal to depreciation, at NIS 23 million annually. This is due to the fact that higher production capacity would require investment to eliminate bottlenecks. Actual investment in recent years were higher than depreciation.
KCTR investment in 2011, amounting to NIS 60 million, primarily for construction of the production line for female hygiene products, the decrease in investment to NIS 10 million annually in 2012-2013 and the gradual increase in investment to the level of depreciation for the typical year, NIS 15 million annually, are based on the KCTR strategic plan.
Working capital requirements
We assume that during the forecast period, the ratio of operating working capital to revenues in Israel would be 9% - similar to the ratio in 2010.
We assume that during the forecast period, the ratio of operating working capital to revenues in Turkey would be 19% - similar to the ratio in 2010.
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and long-term growth rate (g)
The real capital cost was set between 9.5-10.5% p.a., or an average of 10.0% p.a. The WACC reflected the following assumptions: capital cost - 11.5% p.a. on average; real debt cost - 5.0% p.a.; tax rate - 19%; and financial leverage - 20%.
The capital cost of 11.5% p.a. was calculated using the CAPM model, as set forth in section 2b above. We assume long-term risk-free interest rate to be 2.7% p.a., long-term market risk premium to be between 7-9% p.a. and HOGLA beta to be 1.1. This beta was determined relative to commonly-used beta values around the world15.
15 See summary of beta values by Aswath Damodaran:
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/Betas.html
The risk-free cost of capital in the model, 2.7% p.a., is derived from the yield to maturity on Government of Israel CPI-linked debentures with duration of 10 years or more, as of December 31, 2010. The debt cost for HADERA PAPER in the model was determined to be the risk-free capital cost in the model, plus the Company's risk premium. The risk premium is determined as the difference, upon the valuation date, between the yield to maturity of corporate debentures with similar rating to that of the Company, and the yield to maturity of Government of Israel CPI-linked debentures with similar duration. The valuation is based on the assumption that the debt cost for HOGLA is the same as for HADERA PAPER.
HOGLA assumed no significant financial debt through 2007. In 2008, HOGLA assumed net financial debt amounting to NIS 119 million, to finance its investment in KCTR, which decreased to NIS 24 million as of the valuation date, as set forth in section 4b(2) above. This debt reflects a ratio of leverage to enterprise value (EV) of only 1% for HOGLA in the model.
Assuming that KC knowingly chose not to leverage HOGLA at typical leverage for the basic products industry, in HOGLA's case there are restrictions on applying the debt capacity approach. Using this approach, calculation of the weighted average capital cost would be based on the customary level of financial leverage for the sector, as distinct from the actual leverage level of the company, as set forth in section 2b above. It would appear that in this case, had KC not elected not to leverage, HOGLA may have achieved a leverage of 30-50% of enterprise value (EV). Due to KC's approach, we assume that the potential financial leverage would be at 20% of EV.
We assume that free cash flow (FCF) for HOGLA and KCTR would grow in the long term at 1.25-1.75% annually, on average at 1.5% annually - similar to the population growth rate. This assumes that technology improvements would allow to expand the production capacity at this pace over the long term, without investment in excess of depreciation.
Net financial debt
HOGLA's net financial debt as of December 31, 2010 amounted to NIS 19 million - see section 4b(2) above.
Value of KC control premium
KC's involvement in HOGLA is not materially different to that of HADERA PAPER. KC does not benefit from any management fees or other benefits, other than royalties at an average 2.5% of HOGLA revenues. These royalties are paid in exchange for technological knowledge, research and development and use of KC's procurement system. It would appear that the economic benefit to HOGLA due to economies of scale at KC is no less than the amount of royalties.
One of HOGLA's plants is at HADERA, and uses the energy center and other services provided by HADERA PAPER at this site. Furthermore, HOGLA contributes to cost of administrative and IT resources of HADERA PAPER, and it would appear that in this case, the positive implications of control premium (steering of the company, setting its business direction and enforcing efficient management), its negative implications (payroll and benefits at the expense of minority interest) and synergy with other businesses16 of KC are not material.
In view of the foregoing, we assume that the value of control premium for KC is not material.
16 As defined in "Value and Achievement of Control" by ALONA BAR-ON and YITZHAK SUARI, KASIERER Institute, December 2005.
Below is calculation of HOGLA valuation:
| | 2011 | | | 2012 | | | 2013 | | | 2014 | | | 2015 | | | 2016 | | | 2017 | | | Typical year | |
| | Forecast | |
| | NIS in millions | |
After-tax operating income - Israel | | | 134 | | | | 129 | | | | 127 | | | | 125 | | | | 128 | | | | 133 | | | | 135 | | | | 137 | |
After-tax operating income - Turkey | | | (8 | ) | | | 5 | | | | 19 | | | | 36 | | | | 49 | | | | 50 | | | | 51 | | | | 52 | |
After-tax operating income | | | 126 | | | | 134 | | | | 145 | | | | 161 | | | | 177 | | | | 183 | | | | 186 | | | | 189 | |
Depreciation | | | 33 | | | | 38 | | | | 38 | | | | 38 | | | | 38 | | | | 38 | | | | 38 | | | | 38 | |
Investment in fixed assets | | | (83 | ) | | | (33 | ) | | | (33 | ) | | | (34 | ) | | | (35 | ) | | | (36 | ) | | | (38 | ) | | | (38 | ) |
Changes to working capital | | | (1 | ) | | | (21 | ) | | | (12 | ) | | | (8 | ) | | | (6 | ) | | | (4 | ) | | | (4 | ) | | | (4 | ) |
Free cash flow (FCF) | | | 74 | | | | 118 | | | | 138 | | | | 157 | | | | 173 | | | | 181 | | | | 182 | | | | 185 | |
Discounted cash flow, years 1-7 | | | 71 | | | | 102 | | | | 109 | | | | 112 | | | | 113 | | | | 107 | | | | 98 | | | | | |
Residual value | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1,170 | |
| | High value | | | Low value | |
| | NIS in millions | |
Calculation assumptions | | | | | | |
Weighted Average Cost of capital (WACC) | | | 9.75 | % | | | 10.25 | % |
Long-term growth rate (g) | | | 1.25 | % | | | 1.75 | % |
Model results | | | | | | | | |
Enterprise Value (EV) | | | 1,977 | | | | 1,797 | |
Less financial debt as of | | | (19 | ) | | | (19 | ) |
Equity value - HOGLA | | | 1,958 | | | | 1,778 | |
| | NIS in millions | | | Holding stake | |
Value of KC holding stake* | | | 981 | | | | 891 | | | | 50.1 | % |
Value of HADERA PAPER holding stake | | | 977 | | | | 887 | | | | 49.9 | % |
Equity value - HOGLA | | | 1,958 | | | | 1,778 | | | | | |
| | | | | Long-term real growth rate (g) | |
| | | | | | | 2.25% | | | | 2.00% | | | | 1.75% | | | | 1.50% | | | | 1.25% | | | | 1.00% | | | | 0.75% | |
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) for discounting cash flow | | | 9.00 | % | | | 2,270 | | | | 2,218 | | | | 2,169 | | | | 2,124 | | | | 2,081 | | | | 2,042 | | | | 2,004 | |
| | 9.25 | % | | | 2,187 | | | | 2,139 | | | | 2,094 | | | | 2,052 | | | | 2,013 | | | | 1,976 | | | | 1,942 | |
| | 9.50 | % | | | 2,109 | | | | 2,065 | | | | 2,024 | | | | 1,985 | | | | 1,949 | | | | 1,915 | | | | 1,883 | |
| | 9.75 | % | | | 2,036 | | | | 1,995 | | | | 1,958 | | | | 1,922 | | | | 1,889 | | | | 1,857 | | | | 1,827 | |
| | 10.00 | % | | | 1,968 | | | | 1,931 | | | | 1,896 | | | | 1,863 | | | | 1,832 | | | | 1,802 | | | | 1,775 | |
| | 10.25 | % | | | 1,904 | | | | 1,870 | | | | 1,837 | | | | 1,807 | | | | 1,778 | | | | 1,751 | | | | 1,725 | |
| | 10.50 | % | | | 1,844 | | | | 1,812 | | | | 1,782 | | | | 1,754 | | | | 1,727 | | | | 1,702 | | | | 1,678 | |
| | 10.75 | % | | | 1,788 | | | | 1,758 | | | | 1,730 | | | | 1,704 | | | | 1,679 | | | | 1,656 | | | | 1,633 | |
| | 11.00 | % | | | 1,735 | | | | 1,707 | | | | 1,681 | | | | 1,657 | | | | 1,634 | | | | 1,612 | | | | 1,591 | |
Valuation of HADERA PAPER Ltd.
Information about Company securities traded on the TEL AVIV Stock Exchange
Adjusted share price of Hadera Paper Ltd.
The price of the share, as derived from the
valuation, lies in the range NIS 320-360
Share price on December 31, 2010:
NIS 296
Share price on June 30, 2009:
NIS 173
Valuation by GIZA-SINGER-EVEN Ltd.
Of CARMEL Container Systems Ltd.
| Industry And Trade Branch | |
| | |
| Carmel Container Systems Ltd. | |
| | |
| Valuation For Impairment Testing | |
| | |
| November 2010 | |


| Saul Glicksberg | |
| Hadera Paper Ltd. (hereinafter: “Hadera Paper”) | |
| | |
| General | |
| At your request, we were asked by Hadera Paper Ltd. (hereinafter: “the Company”) to perform a valuation of the activity of Carmel Container Systems Ltd. (hereinafter: “Carmel”) for the purpose of testing for impairment of its goodwill, correct to September 30, 2010 (hereinafter: “the Work”). | |
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| This opinion includes a description of the methodology and the principal assumptions and analyses used to examine the value of the Company. Nonetheless, the description does not purport to be a complete and detailed description of all procedures that we implemented during the formation of this opinion. | |
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| When formulating its opinion, Giza Singer Even Ltd. (“Giza Singer Even”) assumed and relied upon the information received from the Company as being accurate, complete and up-to-date, including the financial data and forward-looking information. Giza Singer Even is not responsible for an independent examination of the information that it received, and accordingly, did not perform an independent examination of this information, apart from general overall tests of reasonability. | |
| | |
| In this valuation, we also took into account, inter alia, forecasts furnished to us by the Company’s Management. These assessments are conjectures and uncertain expectations regarding the future, which are based, in part, on information existing in the Company when the assessments were made, as well as on various assumptions and expectations concerning both the Company and many external factors, including the state of the market in which the Company operates, potential competitors and the state of the economy as a whole. We emphasize that there is no certainty that these conjectures and expectations shall materialize fully or partially. The assessments and forecasts of the Company’s Management, besides being based on the aforesaid assumptions, relate to the Company’s intentions and future objectives, correct to the date of the assessment. These intentions and objectives are materially influenced by the Company’s situation and the market situation, and are continuously being adjusted to the various changes in the working assumptions, in the Company’s situation and in the overall economic situation. It is reasonable to assume that any such change would affect the chances of these assessments materializing and, if these assessments of the Management do not materialize, the actual results may materially differ from the assessed or implied results of these assessments, to the extent that they were used in this opinion, considering that the fair value was assessed within the scope of the Work, as specified in the section on accounting standardization. | |
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| In this valuation, we also considered forward-looking information that was furnished to us by the Company’s Management. Forward-looking information is uncertain information about the future, which is based on information existing in the Company at the time of the assessment, and includes the Company Management’s assessments or intentions correct to the date of the assessment. Should these assessments by the Management not materialize, the actual results may materially differ from the assessed or implied results of this information, to the extent that it was used in this opinion. | |
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| Furthermore, the valuation, per se, contains forward-looking information, which reflects our assessment of various parameters based on information in our possession. Should these assessments not materialize, the actual results may materially differ. | |


| An economic assessment is not an exact science, and is supposed to reasonably and fairly reflect an accurate situation at a particular time, based on known data, basic assumptions that were made and forecasts that were estimated. Changes in the principal variables and/or in the information may change the foundation for the basic assumptions and, accordingly, change the conclusions. | |
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| This opinion does not constitute a due diligence and does not purport to include the information, examinations and tests or any other information included in a due diligence, which includes an examination of contracts and engagements of the company. | |
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| It is emphasized that this opinion in no way constitutes counseling or a legal opinion. We interpreted various documents that we perused solely for the purposes of this opinion. | |
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| The information appearing in this Work and valuation does not purport to include all information that a potential investor would require, and is not intended to determine the Company’s value for a specific investor. Different investors may have differing objectives and considerations, and examination methods based on different assumptions; accordingly, the price that they would be willing to pay would also be different. | |
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| We hereby affirm that we have no personal interest in Carmel, apart from the fact that we are receiving a fee for this counseling; our fee is not contingent upon the results of the valuation. | |
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| It should be noted that, in recent years, Giza Singer Even prepared a number of economic assignments pertaining to Carmel, including the PPA work and additional goodwill impairment tests. | |
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| Furthermore, from time to time Giza Singer Even prepares economic opinions and provides economic and financial consulting services to the controlling shareholders of the Company and/or to their related companies and to the Company itself, including an impairment test for the purposes of financial statements of previous years. | |
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| At the time this Work is being performed, the parties have no contractual engagement and there is no dependency between them. | |
| | |
| We point out in relation to this opinion that Giza Singer Even shall receive a letter of indemnification from the parties commissioning this Work (“the clients”), for any instance whereby it shall be sued in a legal proceeding to pay any sum to a third party in a legal proceeding in respect of a cause that is liable to derive, directly or indirectly, from this opinion. The clients shall indemnify Giza Singer Even in respect of all reasonable expenses that Giza Singer Even shall incur or be required to pay for legal representation, legal counseling, professional counseling, and/or defense during legal proceedings, negotiations, etc. The clients shall also indemnify Giza Singer Even in respect of a sum that it shall be adjudged to pay, in a legal proceeding, to a third party. The indemnity obligation shall not apply if Giza Singer Even acted maliciously or with gross negligence in relation to provision of the services pertaining to this opinion. | |
| | |
| We are not agreeing to this opinion being mentioned in the Company’s financial statements for example, or in reports to the Securities Authority and/or the Ministry of Finance. No other use may be made of this opinion without receiving express prior written permission from Giza Singer Even. | |
| | |
| Any party that makes use of this Work, in whole or in part, other than for the purposes for which it was submitted, and without the prior written authorization of Giza Singer Even Ltd., may be sued as a result. | |


| | |
| Our Work is intended solely for the use of the Company’s Management and solely for the purpose described above; no other use may be made thereof, including forwarding of our opinion to a third party or mentioning it, without receiving our prior written consent. In no instance, whether or not our consent has been given, shall we bear any liability towards any third party to whom our opinion has been forwarded. | |
| | |
| During the course of the Work, we received information, explanations, data and representations from the Company and/or from any party acting on its behalf (hereinafter: “the Information”). The responsibility for the aforesaid Information is that of the suppliers of this Information. The framework of our Work did not include an examination and/or verification of the Information as stated. In light of this, our Work shall not be deemed and shall not constitute confirmation that the Information forwarded to us is correct, complete or accurate. In no instance shall we be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense that might be caused in any way and manner due to acts of fraud, false representation, deception, the furnishing of incorrect and incomplete information or the withholding of information on the part of the Company and/or any party acting on its behalf, or any other reliance on such Information, subject to that stated above. | |
| | |
| As a rule, forecasts relate to future events and are based on reasonable assumptions at the time of the forecast. Since these assumptions may change over the period of the forecast, forecasts made at the time of the assessment may differ from the actual financial results and/or from assessments that might be made at a later date. Therefore, one cannot relate to forecasts made at the same level of assurance as is attributed to data in audited financial statements. We are not expressing an opinion as to the correspondence of the forecasts made by the companies and/or by any party on their behalf with the financial results that shall actually be obtained. | |
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| Our Work does not constitute a due diligence and it should not be relied upon as a due diligence. | |
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| Furthermore, economic valuations do not purport to be an exact science and the conclusions thereof depend, in many instances, upon the subjective judgment of the appraiser. Despite the fact that we believe that the value determined by us is reasonable, based on the Information supplied to us, another appraiser might have reached a different value. | |
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| The principal sources of Information used in the preparation of this opinion are specified hereunder: | |
| ü | the Company’s financial statements for the year 2009 (audited) and the unaudited financial statements as on 30.9.2010 (reviewed); | |
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| ü | background material and market data, taken from overt information publicized on websites, in newspaper articles or in other public sources; | |
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| ü | the Company’s budget for the year 2011 (updated on the basis of the results of the first half of the year); | |
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| ü | clarifications and data forwarded to us by the Company at our request, as specified in the body of the Work; | |
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| ü | meetings and/or telephone conversations with the following officers in the Company: | |
| | ● | Mr. Saul Glicksberg, V.P. Finance, of Hadera Paper Ltd.; | |
| | ● | Mr. Shmuel Molad, Comptroller, Hadera Paper Ltd.; | |
| | ● | Mr. Avishai Ali, V.P. Finance, of Carmel. | |
| Accounting Standardization | |
| At the request of the clients, the valuation shall be used for the purpose of implementing International Accounting Standard number 36, “Asset Impairment” (hereinafter: “the Standard”) in their financial statements. | |
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| The purpose of the Standard is to prescribe procedures that a corporation must implement in order to ensure that its assets are not presented at a sum that exceeds their recoverable amount. An asset is presented at a sum higher than its recoverable amount when its book value exceeds the sum that would be obtained from realizing or selling the asset. In such instance, asset impairment has occurred and the Standard requires the corporation to recognize a loss due to impairment. The Standard also specifies when a corporation must write off a loss due to impairment and requires particular disclosures about impaired assets, as well as about investments in nonsubsidiary investee companies presented in the financial statements at a sum that significantly exceeds their market value or their net selling price. | |
| | |
| The Standard prescribes the accounting handling and presentation required in the event of asset impairment. If a corporation prepares consolidated (including proportionately consolidated) financial statements, the Standard must be implemented for the accounting handling of impairment of all assets stated in the corporation’s consolidated statement of financial position, including investments in nonsubsidiary investee companies, goodwill deriving from the acquisition of subsidiaries and fair-value adjustments. This Standard applies, in essence, also to investments in subsidiaries and jointly-venture companies, so that provisions for impairment, which are recognized in the consolidated financial statements in respect of the assets of the subsidiary or the jointly-venture company, including goodwill and fair-value adjustments, are presented in the parent company’s separate financial statements as a reduction of the investment account in the subsidiary or jointly-controlled company. | |
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| The Standard prescribes that the recoverable amount of an asset must be estimated whenever there are indications that an asset may be impaired. | |
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| This Standard requires a company to recognize a loss due to asset impairment (i.e., the value of the asset declines) whenever the book value of the asset exceeds its recoverable amount. A loss due to impairment must be recognized in the statement of operations in relation to those assets that are presented at cost and must be handled as a reduction of a revaluated sum, but only in relation to those assets that are presented at a revaluated sum according to other accounting standards or provisions of law. | |
| | |
| The Standard prescribes that the recoverable amount must be calculated as the net selling price or value in use, whichever is higher: | |
| (1) | The net selling price is the sum that may be obtained from selling the asset in an arm’s-length transaction between knowledgeable willing buyers and willing sellers, less any direct incremental disposal costs. | |
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| (2) | The asset’s value in use is the present value of the estimated future cash flows expected to derive from continued use of the asset and from disposal of the asset at the end of its useful life. | |
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| This Standard requires a corporation to use, inter alia, the following, in order to determine the asset’s value in use: | |

| (1) | cash-flow forecasts on the basis of reasonable, substantiated assumptions that: | |
| | ● | reflect the present situation of the asset; | |
| | ● | represent the Management’s best assessment of the economic conditions likely to prevail during the balance of the asset’s useful life. | |
| | | | |
| (2) | the pre-tax discount rate, which reflects current market assessments of the time value of the money, and the risks that are specific to the asset. The discount rate will not reflect risks relating to future cash flows that have already been adjusted in respect thereof.1 | |
| An estimate of the recoverable amount will be calculated for each asset separately. If this is not possible, this Standard requires the corporation to determine the recoverable amount for the cash-generating unit to which the asset is attributed. A cash-generating unit is the smallest identifiable group of assets that generates cash inflows from continued use, which are essentially independent of the cash inflows from other assets, or from other groups of assets. Nonetheless, if the output produced by an asset or by a group of assets is traded on an active market, the asset or group of assets will be identified as a distinct cash-generating unit, even if a portion or the entire output being produced by the asset or by a group of assets is earmarked for internal use. | |
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| When testing for impairment of a cash-generating unit, this Standard requires that goodwill and joint assets (such as assets of a head office) relating to that same cash-generating unit must also be taken into account. | |
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| Examining the possibility of impaired goodwill is based on rules and guidelines prescribed, as stated, in International Accounting Standard no. 36. | |
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| Since goodwill cannot be measured separately from the operations, the customary methodology employed to test for possible impairment of goodwill is to measure the recoverable value of each cash-generating unit to which all or a portion of the acquired goodwill is attributed, and compare it with the book value of the assets and liabilities (including the acquired goodwill) attributed to that unit. If the recoverable amount is lower than the book value of the cash-generating unit, the difference will be deducted from the goodwill attributed to that unit. If a gap remains after reducing all of the goodwill, the balance of the assets attributed to that unit must be reduced on a pro rata basis, subject to the limit of the recoverable value of these assets. | |
| | |
| As a rule, an examination of goodwill impairment includes the following stages: | |
| (1) | identifying the cash-generating units and the book value of their assets and liabilities – this stage includes determining the units that are relevant for measuring the value of the goodwill, and attributing the assets and liabilities to the various units, including attribution of the acquired goodwill. | |
| | | |
| (2) | measuring the recoverable value of each unit, considering the anticipated cash flow in respect thereof and/or its realization value, whichever is higher. | |
| | |
| 1 | According to clause 85 of the summary of considerations and rationale behind the conclusions, which were presented in International Accounting Standard number 36 – “Asset Impairment”: “Theoretically, discounting of post-tax cash flows at a post-tax discount rate and the discounting of pre-tax cash flows at a pre-tax discount rate should give the same result, as long as the pre-tax discount rate is equal to the post-tax discount rate, and adjusted to reflect the specific sum and timing of the cash flows in respect of taxes.” For the sake of convenience, and according to customary practice, we performed the valuation according to post-tax cash flows and at a post-tax discount rate. | |
| (3) | comparing the recoverable value with the book value – according to that stated above. | |
| Details about the valuating company and the appraiser | |
| | |
| Giza Singer Even is the leading independent financial and economic consulting firm in Israel, with more than 25 years of experience. | |
| | |
| The consulting services of Giza Singer Even are divided into four spheres: consulting services to corporations and government authorities; mergers and acquisitions; securitization; tenders and infrastructure projects. | |
| | |
| Giza Singer Even provides its services through a number of departments: economic valuations, financing and capital markets, applicable economic research, economic accounting and risk management, project and infrastructure financing and a professional department. | |
| | |
| The firm’s leading partners are: the Chairman, Yechiel Even, and the C.E.O., Yariv Philosoph, together with Prof. Eli Kraizberg, Yuval Zilberstein, Eli Goldberg, Avshalom Herscovic and Udi Rosenberg, who also serves as the head of the firm’s professional department. Additional partners in the firm are Eyal Jed Wab, Yuval Lapidot and Yuval Barak of the finance department, Asher Shklar of the economic accounting and risk management department, Varda Stern of the project and national infrastructure financing department, and Alex Shechter of the economic valuation department. | |
| | |
| The team who performed the Work: | |
| | |
| The Work was performed by a team headed by Mr. Eli Goldberg. | |
| | |
| Mr. Eli Goldberg is a founding partner of the company, whose experience spans more than 30 years. | |
| | |
| Following are Mr. Goldberg’s educational credentials: | |
| | |
| Mr. Goldberg received a BA in economics from Bar-Ilan University in 1977. | |
| | Sincerely, | |
| |  | |
| | Giza Singer Even Ltd. | |
| Date: November 7, 2010 | | |
| TABLE OF CONTENTS | | |
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| | 20 | |


| 1. | Introduction | |
| | | |
| | Carmel Container Systems Ltd. (hereinafter: “Carmel”) is an industrial company engaging in the design, manufacture and marketing of paper-based packaging. The Company designs, manufactures and sells shipping packages and corrugated carton sheets. The Company’s sales are mainly to a large number of customers in Israel. | |
| | | |
| | The Company has two subsidiaries: Frenkel – C.D. Ltd. (hereinafter: “Frenkel”), an industrial company engaging in the development, manufacture and marketing of packaging products based on paper, carton and other materials; and Tri-Wall Containers (Israel) Ltd. (hereinafter: “Tri-Wall”), an industrial company manufacturing triple-layer packaging, pallets and wooden crates. | |
| | | |
| | In July 2008, Hadera Paper signed an agreement for the acquisition of the shares of the principal shareholder of the Company, for the consideration of approximately ILS 79 million. The transaction was consummated on August 24, 2008 and, as a result, Hadera Paper increased its stake in Carmel from 36.2% to 89.3%.2 On October 4, 2010, Hadera Paper completed its acquisition of the remaining Carmel shares, and, for the consideration of USD 4.2 million, increased its stake in the Company to 100%. | |
|
| |
| 2 | All holding ratios mentioned in the description of Carmel are the effective holding ratios, after neutralizing treasury shares previously acquired by Carmel and its subsidiaries. | |


| 1. | General | |
| | | | |
| | 1.1 | Carmel Container Systems Ltd. | |
| | | | |
| | | Carmel was founded in 1983 and engages in the design, manufacture, marketing and sales of packaging containers, corrugated carton sheets, wooden pallets, etc. The Company was founded as a private company and, in 1986, became a public company after listing its shares on the American Stock Exchange (“AMEX”). In July 2005, Carmel’s shares were delisted from the AMEX at its initiative, inter alia, due to the insignificant number of Carmel shareholders in the U.S., the poor trading and the high administrative costs, and taking into account the fact that, at that time, Carmel had no plans for capital recruitments via the AMEX. | |
| | | | |
| | | In July 2008, Hadera Paper signed an agreement for the acquisition of the shares of the Company’s principal shareholder for the consideration of approximately NIS 79 million. The transaction was consummated on August 24, 2008 and, as a result, Hadera Paper increased its stake in Carmel from 36.2% to 89.3%.3 On October 4, 2010, Hadera Paper completed its acquisition of the remaining 10.7% of Carmel’s shares for the consideration of USD 4.2 million, and thus increased its stake in the Company to 100%. | |
| | | | |
| | | Carmel has two investee companies: Frenkel – C.D. Ltd. (hereinafter: “Frenkel”) and Tri-Wall Containers (Israel) Ltd. (hereinafter: “Tri-Wall”). | |
| | | | |
| | 1.2 | Frenkel C.D. Ltd. | |
| �� | | | |
| | | Frenkel engages in the design, manufacture, marketing and sales of carton shelf packaging (packaging for single products, such as cornflakes, beer packs, carton baking trays, etc.), product display stands for setup on sales floors, etc. Frenkel offers unique packaging solutions to its customers, customized to their requirements, in the fields of industry, agriculture, the food and beverage industries, and knowledge-intensive industries. | |
| | | | |
| | | Frenkel was founded following a merger transaction between C.D. Packaging Systems Ltd. and Frenkel and Sons Ltd. in January 2006. Prior to the transaction, C.D. Packaging Systems Ltd. had been jointly owned by Hadera Paper (50%) and Carmel (50%), while Frenkel and Sons Ltd. had been controlled by a third party. Subsequent to the execution of the transaction, Hadera Paper and the Company each hold 28.92% of Frenkel’s shares, while Frenkel and Sons Ltd. hold the remaining 42.16%. The objective of the merger had been to combine the operations in the segment and to create a more significant player in this competitive market, while combining the advantages of both companies and realizing the potential for savings in costs, as a result of the synergies between the operations. | |
| | | | |
| | 1.3 | Tri-Wall Containers (Israel) Ltd. | |
| | | | |
| | | A wholly owned subsidiary of Carmel, which was acquired in 1988 from Koor Food Ltd. Tri-Wall engages in the design, manufacture and marketing of special triple-wall corrugated carton containers (produced by Carmel), in combination with additional materials, which are intended for the packaging and shipping of products, mainly for the high-tech market, bulk shipments and more. In addition, Tri-Wall manufactures wooden pallets for the domestic market and for exports. | |
|
| |
| 3 | All holding ratios mentioned in the description of Carmel are the effective holding ratios, after neutralizing treasury shares previously acquired by Carmel and its subsidiaries. | |
| | | Recently, Tri-Wall underwent streamlining, the objective being to improve its profitability in the short term. The main processes that Tri-Wall is implementing as part of its program to increase efficiency include: | |
| | | – | continuing the process of downsizing its manpower; | |
| | | – | raising prices, the aim being to offset the increase in input prices; | |
| | | – | developing the package manufacturing operations at the industrial plant site in northern Israel; | |
| | | – | upgrading the information systems and renovating machinery; | |
| | | – | focusing on various industries offering high potential profitability. | |
| 2. | Products and services | |
| | | | | |
| | 2.1 | Carmel | |
| | | | |
| | | Carmel’s products are divided into the following categories: | |
| | | | | |
| | | 2.1.1 | Corrugated carton products | |
| | | | | |
| | | | The corrugated carton products are manufactured and processed according to customers specific requirements, which are determined according to the type of goods being stored, the type of packaging, the weight expected to be applied to the packaging during transport, the temperature and humidity conditions during storage and transport, the graphic design of the package, etc. The corrugated carton products being manufactured and processed include: (1) “standard” packaging containers of corrugated carton, boxes manufactured in various sizes that are closed by adhering tabs and the bottom of the box; (2) containers and boxes in a variety of geometric shapes that may be assembled by manual folding of the carton sheet, without mechanized folding or adhesion using hot glue. These products are sold mainly to high-speed, mechanization-intensive industries, such as the soft-drinks industry; (3) boxes for agriculture, trays that are assembled merely by using an assembly machine having matching moulds. | |
| | | | | |
| | | | This year, Carmel acquired a seven-color printing and cutting machine at an investment of approximately NIS 25 million, which affords the Company a quality advantage over its competitors in the industry and enables Carmel to better meet the demands during peak months, due to its increased processing capacity. | |
| | | | | |
| | | 2.1.2 | Corrugated carton sheets | |
| | | | | |
| | | | Corrugated carton sheets are used as raw material and are marketed to corrugated carton processors that use them as raw material for the production of packaging. The carton processors are small processing plants that sell their products to small and medium-sized customers. Carmel has the unique ability to manufacture triple-wall corrugated sheets that are used to manufacture special packaging by its subsidiary, Tri-Wall, mainly for high-tech industries. | |


| | | 2.1.3 | Production of digital (print) sales promotion products | |
| | | | | |
| | | | Planning, design and production of digital print products for a variety of applications relating to sales promotion, display stands, decorations for trade-show pavilions and outdoor advertising. The superior quality, ink-jet printing technology is applied to the work surface, with synchronized cutting, without the need for dies. | |
| | | | | |
| | 2.2 | Frenkel | |
| | | | |
| | | Frenkel designs, manufactures and markets shelf packaging and display stands. Frenkel uses mainly duplex carton and some corrugated carton as the raw materials for its products. The duplex carton is, for the most part, imported directly from Europe and the U.S., while another portion is imported indirectly through local agents. The supply of the corrugated carton from Carmel constitutes approximately 20% of Frenkel’s raw materials. | |
| | | | | |
| | 2.3 | Tri-Wall | |
| | | | |
| | | Tri-Wall’s products include the following products | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | Packaging made from triple-wall corrugated carton, which is used mainly for exporting heavy and large volume products, such as chemicals, electronics equipment, high-tech equipment, medical equipment, security equipment and more. | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | Packaging assembled mainly for exporting high-tech products, which are made of wood, plywood, triple-wall corrugated carton, padding material, metal components and more. | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | Ordinary and unique wooden pallets which are used, inter alia, as bases for the above-mentioned packages. | |
| | | | | |
| 3. | Customers | | |
| | | |
| | The majority of Carmel’s production is channeled to the domestic market to business customers from the sectors of industry and agriculture (as specified hereunder), while approximately 1-2% of its production is channeled to direct exports, mainly agricultural exports. A significant portion of the industrial customers export their products in corrugated carton packages, such that a significant share of Carmel’s sales is also directed towards indirect exports. Products are supplied according to orders forwarded from customers either through sales representatives or directly opposite Carmel’s customer service department. Orders are drawn up according to price quotes that customers receive and according to the commercial arrangements between the parties. A small portion of the products is manufactured for inventory, at the request of customers. | |
| | | | | |
| | Carmel has a wide variety of customers, including leading companies in the economy operating in a broad range of sectors, including: (a) the industrial sector, which includes customers in the food, soft drink, dairy and textile sectors, etc.; (b) the agricultural sector, which includes customers that are farmers, packing houses and marketing organizations, whereby the products target both the domestic market and exports; (c) carton processors – small factories for processing corrugated cartons in small production series; (d) digital printing customers, which include mainly advertising agencies; (e) others – cellular operators, government ministries and banks. | |
| | | | | |
| | Carmel has approximately 350 active customers, and has no dependency on any particular customer. | |


| 4. | Marketing and distribution | |
| | | | | |
| | Carmel distributes its products in a variety of ways, including direct sales to end customers and sales through agents. | |
| | | | | |
| 5. | Seasonality | |
| | | | | |
| | The majority of the sectoral demand for the marketing of carton packaging products is during the winter months, mainly in November and March, due to the high demand deriving from agricultural crops (mainly citrus fruit and peppers), the majority of which is channeled to exports. During the winter, the sector fully utilizes its entire production capacity. | |
| | | | | |
| 6. | Production capacity | |
| | | | | |
| | Carmel’s production capacity is estimated at approximately 100 thousand tons of corrugated carton per annum and is utilized for the most part. Carmel’s operations in the field of corrugated carton are concentrated at the plant in Caesaria, while a small portion of the operations is carried out at the plant in Carmiel. Carmel’s production setup includes corrugators and machines to process corrugated carton sheets into packaging (mainly printing and cutting), warehouses for raw materials and finished goods and a fleet of trucks operated by subcontractors. The entire corrugating operations and the majority of the processing operations are performed in Caesaria, on 12 processing machines. In addition, Carmel has an additional assembly center in Ein Yahav, serving customers in the Arava region. During 2005 – 2006, Carmel executed investments to optimize its production setup, including increasing its production capacity and modifying equipment to accommodate lighter packaging paper in order to improve profitability. Furthermore, the Company increased its printing and carton processing capacity by adding a sophisticated cutting and printing machine. Additionally, the Company reached a decision to relocate a portion of its wood production operations (of Tri-Wall) from Netanya to Netivot. | |
| | | | | |
| 7. | Fixed assets and facilities | |
| | | | | |
| | Carmel owns real estate in Netivot and, in addition, rents real estate and buildings in the Caesaria industrial zone, in Carmiel, Netivot and in Netanya from a company owned by the Company’s controlling shareholder. | |
| | | | | |
| | Carmel’s fixed assets include mainly manufacturing machinery and equipment for paper corrugation, and processng machines, which perform operations of cutting, printing, adhesion and folding to complete the final product. Carmel’s manufacturing operations in the field of corrugated carton are carried out in Carmiel and in Caesaria. All of the corrugation operations and the majority of the processing operations are carried out at the plant in Caesaria. | |
| | | | | |
| | Furthermore, Carmel owns two digital printing machines (that produce six-color, high-quality printing on corrugated carton and other rigid surfaces), with a variety of diverse applications in the fields of sales promotion, display stands and outdoor advertising. | |
| | | | | |
| 8. | Raw materials and suppliers | |
| | | | | |
| | The purchasing of the raw materials from Carmel’s shareholders is done at competitive prices customary in the sector in Israel. | |
| | | | | |
| | Wrapping paper, which constitutes approximately 55% of the finished goods cost, is purchased from Hadera Paper (approximately 50% is recycled paper), and from additional overseas suppliers (approximately 50% is paper based on wood cellulose). Carmel has no dependency upon its raw materials suppliers. | |


| | Additional main ancillary materials that Carmel uses in the production of corrugated carton are starch and fuel oil. Starch constitutes a main ingredient of the adhesive for the paper sheets. The starch supplier is Galam Ltd. Other ancillary materials used by Carmel are dies and plates purchased from a number of local suppliers, and wooden pallets produced by Tri-Wall. | |
| | | | | |
| | The main raw materials that Tri-Wall uses for the manufacture of packages (in its plants in Netanya and in Netivot) are Tri-Wall sheets, which are manufactured by Carmel, and a variety of packaging materials, such as plywood, padding materials, and metal parts, which are purchased from a variety of local suppliers. | |
| | | | | |
| 9. | S.W.O.T. analysis | |
| | | | | |
| | 9.1 | Strengths | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | Its reputation and considerable knowledge in the field of package manufacturing; | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | Its varied product basket, from special small packages, through production lines of corrugated carton packaging to large packages of multi-layer corrugated carton by special order. | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | Carmel’s customers represent basic, economic operating sectors – agriculture, food, beverages, etc. – whose exposure to the economic crisis is low relative to other sectors. | |
| | | | | |
| | 9.2 | Weaknesses | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | Relatively low entry barrier for package manufacturing operations (to differentiate from corrugated carton manufacturing) causes stiff competition over every customer. | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | Competitive market (four major players); affected mainly by the gap between supply and demand, due to the cost structure (high capital investment, which is executed in phases). | |
| | | | | |
| | 9.3 | Opportunities | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | Exploiting the synergies deriving from acquisition of the control of Carmel and strengthening the holding of Frenkel on the one hand, and expanding the production capacity of wrapping paper on the other hand. | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | Carmel’s switch to craft substitutes. Hadera Paper’s output may cut the cost of materials and improve Carmel’s profitability. | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | Development of the field of printing on packaging, and the creation of a qualitative and quantitative advantage over competitors deriving from the purchase of a modern printing machine. | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | Increasing the production volume and the ability to meet demands during peak months, which derives from the purchase of a modern processing machine. | |

| | 9.4 | Threats | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | The agricultural sector, and particularly considering its exports of agricultural produce, is one of the largest consumers of corrugated carton packaging in the economy. Reductions in the water quotas to farmers is liable to reduce the agricultural crops and, as a result, the demand for packaging. | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | The transition to use of re-useable plastic packaging in lieu of corrugated carton and paper packaging as part of the “green” trend is liable to reduce demands for Carmel’s products. | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | Carmel is exposed to fluctuations in the exchange rates, due to the fact that about 50% of the wrapping paper consumption is imported, while the product prices are quoted in shekels. | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | Increases in raw materials prices and in paper prices adversely impacts the Company’s short-term profitability, due to the time gap until the additional costs are “passed” to the Company’s customers. | |


| 1. | General | |
| | | |
| | Carmel deals in the design, manufacture, and marketing, of cardboard packaging products. Below is a short survey of the cardboard packaging market. | |
| | | |
| 2. | Market Size | |
| | | |
| | The size of the corrugated cardboard packaging market in Israel (as of 2010) is estimated – in terms of quantity – at 315 thousand tons annually, coming to approximately 1.5 billion NIS annually in monetary terms. Carmel’s share of the market is estimated at 27%. According to company estimates, in the years 2007-2009, the market contracted by a total amount of approximately 10% in terms of quantity. This contraction was determined by changes in industrial output in sectors such as food, beverages, technology, and others, as well as from changes in the activities of the agricultural sector, including export of agricultural produce, which were affected by the global economic crisis. | |
| | | |
| | The corrugated cardboard industry is directly affected by any change in GDP. Any improvement in GDP results in additional demand for packaging products including corrugated cardboard, and a decline in GDP has opposite results. Additionally, increased exports also support demand for packaging and cardboard products. | |
| | | |
| 3. | Competition | |
| | | |
| | Carmel’s competitors in the field of corrugated cardboard are four local companies that manufacture corrugated cardboard and its products: Cargal Ltd.4, Best Carton Ltd., I.M.A. Corrugated Packaging Ltd., and Orda Print Industries Ltd. These manufacturers make corrugated cardboard sheets and packaging containers, and market the containers to customers who use them for packaging needs, and the cardboard sheets to box makers who manufacture containers for small customers and in small series. According to industry estimates, in 2009 most of the manufacturing capability of the sector was utilized. | |
| | | |
| | The corrugated cardboard industry is capital intensive due to the need to invest in a corrugator having a production capacity starting at 40 thousand tons per annum, and reaching up to 80 thousand tons per annum for the largest corrugators in the local market. This fact serves as a natural barrier for entry and exit of competitors in the industry. The investment in a corrugator involves large-scale recruitment of customers in a relatively short period of time, in a saturated market, and thus the investment in a corrugator entails high risk. The most significant investment in the industry in a new corrugator was made by Best Carton Ltd approximately 8 years ago, and turned that company into the third-biggest player in the industry. | |
| | | |
| | Importation of paper and cardboard packaging is limited due to their large volumes and the degree of availability generally required of packaging products, and thus importation is not a real quantitative threat to the cardboard packaging market. Local manufacturers have a real advantage, due to flexibility in production, low freight costs, and also due to inventory holding costs. A number of customers import packaging through direct imports, but the extent of this importation is not significant. | |
|
| |
| 4 | Approximately 26% of stock of Cargal Ltd. is held by Clal Industries. | |


| | Frankel’s field of activity is characterized by high quality requirements for printing on packaging. The field has changed in the last decade with the introduction of digital printing, which has made packaging manufacturing by small print houses economically worthwhile. Currently, Frankel’s main competitors are the Ducart Group, Grafica Bezalel Ltd., Hanamal Packaging, Mercaz Ha’atakot, as well as many small competitors. | |
| | | |
| | Additionally, Carmel is involved, through Tri-Wall, in the field of manufacture of reinforced packaging from multi-ply corrugated cardboard, and in the field of wood sheets. The manufacture of packaging from multi-ply cardboard is a niche field with limited growth potential. The fields products represent an alternative to wood packaging. The threshold of entry into the field is relatively high, due to the knowledge required in the design of high-durability special packaging. In this field, Carmel mainly competes with Triplex Containers (2003) Ltd., and Tlaton Ltd. In the field of wood sheets, a number of manufacturers and distributors operate in Israel, mostly regionally. The entry threshold to this field is low, and there is a relatively high turnover rate of parties dealing in this field. | |
| | | |
| 4. | Raw Materials | |
| | The raw materials in the industry are virgin paper rolls and recycled paper rolls. The recycled paper used in the industry is mostly manufactured by and purchased from Hadera Paper, and the virgin paper in imported mainly from Europe and the US. | |
| | | |
| | Increases in demand for paper, mainly in China and Europe, lead to a sharp rise in the price of paper. Additionally, the strong effect of exchange rates should be noted. Any change in exchange rates has a direct, sharp, effect on cost structure. | |
| | | |
| | The timeframe for ordering the imported raw materials is particularly long, roughly 4 months, and requires the maintaining of especially large inventories. Also, the large variety of packaging, with differing characteristics, requires a large variety of types of paper. | |

| Balance Sheet | |
| | |
| Below is a company balance sheet for the dates 9.30.2009 and 9.30.2010 (surveyed) and for 12.31.2009 (audited), in thousands of NIS: | |
| | For date of Sep. 30 | | | For date of Dec. 31 | | |
| | 2010 | | | 2009 | | | 2009 | | |
| | Unaudited | | | Audited | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
Current Assets | | | | | | | | | | |
Cash and cash equivalents | | | 1,073 | | | | 16,128 | | | | 16,439 | | |
Customers, net | | | 158,287 | | | | 147,519 | | | | 161,037 | | |
Debtors and debt balances | | | 3,904 | | | | 3,328 | | | | 5,556 | | |
Financial derivatives | | | 244 | | | | – | | | | 19 | | |
Inventory | | | 60,979 | | | | 36,408 | | | | 47,245 | | |
| | | 244,478 | | | | 203,383 | | | | 230,296 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Noncurrent Assets | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Long-term loans | | | 204 | | | | | | | | | | |
Long-term debtors | | | – | | | | 1,706 | | | | | | |
Included investment in the company | | | 8,125 | | | | 7,983 | | | | 8,087 | | |
Fixed assets, net | | | 80,181 | | | | 55,985 | | | | 58,874 | | |
| | | 88,510 | | | | 65,674 | | | | 66,961 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 312,988 | | | | 269,057 | | | | 297,257 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Current Liabilities | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Credit from banking corporations | | | 36,706 | | | | 19,343 | | | | 19,097 | | |
Liabilities to suppliers and service providers | | | 91,661 | | | | 61,942 | | | | 88,902 | | |
Taxed to be paid | | | 5,128 | | | | 2,100 | | | | 3,606 | | |
Creditors and credit balances | | | 13,232 | | | | 14,833 | | | | 15,217 | | |
Financial derivatives | | | – | | | | – | | | | – | | |
| | | 146,727 | | | | 98,218 | | | | 126,822 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Long-term Liabilities | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Long-term loans from banking corporations | | | 38,058 | | | | 46,701 | | | | 42,083 | | |
Liabilities due to worker benefits, net | | | 1,958 | | | | 2,668 | | | | 1,995 | | |
Postponed taxes | | | 3,938 | | | | 5,054 | | | | 5,365 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 43,954 | | | | 54,423 | | | | 49,443 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Equity Attributed to Company Stockholders | | | 122,307 | | | | 116,416 | | | | 120,992 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total Liabilities and Equity | | | 312,988 | | | | 269,057 | | | | 297,257 | | |

| 1. | Reporting and Loss | |
| | | |
| | Below is the company balance sheet for the nine months ending on 9.30.2010 (unaudited), the nine months ending on 9.30.2009, and for the year ending 12.31.2009 (audited, in thousands of NIS) | |
| | | For 9 months ending Sep. 30 | | | | | |
| | | 2010 | | | 2009 | | | 2009 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| Sales revenues | | | 283,396 | | | | 283,353 | | | | 383,049 | | |
| Cost of sales | | | 249,782 | | | | 245,515 | | | | 328,997 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Gross profit | | | 33,614 | | | | 37,838 | | | | 54,052 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Sales and marketing expenditures | | | 18,287 | | | | 16,648 | | | | 22,671 | | |
| Management and general expenditures | | | 14,218 | | | | 14,281 | | | | 18,985 | | |
| Other expenditures (revenues), net | | | – | | | | – | | | | 500 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Operational profit (loss) | | | 1,109 | | | | 6,909 | | | | 12,896 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Profit from realization of fixed assets | | | 91 | | | | 41 | | | | (67 | ) | |
| Financing expenditures | | | (1,557 | ) | | | (3,257 | ) | | | (3,488 | ) | |
| Financing revenues | | | 1,425 | | | | 317 | | | | 424 | | |
| Share in profit of associated company | | | 36 | | | | 88 | | | | 189 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Profit (loss) before taxes on revenue | | | 1,104 | | | | 4,098 | | | | 9,954 | | |
| Tax benefits | | | 34 | | | | 182 | | | | 1,333 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Net profit (loss) attributed to company stockholders | | | 1,070 | | | | 4,280 | | | | 8,621 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| (Audited), in thousands of NIS: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |

| 1. | Methodology of the Valuation | |
| | | | |
| | The valuation was conducted in accordance with standard guidelines and definitions of utility value. | |
| | | | |
| | The valuation of company activity is based on a basic assumption that the company is an ongoing concern that will continue operating in its current format for an infinite period of activity. The valuation of company activity was conducted according to the method of capitalization of unleveraged cash flow. The forecast cash flow is derived from the company’s profit forecast. | |
| | | | |
| | The cash flows will be capitalized at a capital price that matches the risk level of company activity5. The value received is the economic value of company activity. The economic value of the activity is not dependent on the makeup of the capital of the activity. In other words, it is not dependent on the manner the company is financed, whether by equity or foreign capital. | |
| | | | |
| 2. | Specific Methodological Comments | |
| | | | |
| | The valuation is based, among other things, on company forecasts for the years 2010 and 2011, and on estimations and forecasts for the following years, which reflect our estimation of various parameters, taking into consideration the information that was at our disposal. | |
| | | | |
| | For the purpose of the valuation, the company cash flows were capitalized according to the relevant capitalization rate. Estimation of the residual value, after the 5 years of the forecast, was estimated through use of the formula of the Gordon model, and is based on the capital price and permanent growth rate. The representative year for the purpose of figuring the residual value is the year 2016. | |
| | | | |
| 3. | Cash Flow Forecast | |
| | | | |
| | Below is a detailing of all the assumptions that were used in the building of a company cash flow forecast model: | |
| | | | |
| | 3.1 | Revenues | |
| | | | |
| | | The company budget for 2011 foresees a rise in revenues of roughly 18%. This budget, which was conducted by the company management and approved by the company directorate, assumes that the growth forecast is realistic due to a number of factors: | |
| | ● | A rise in prices of roughly 13%, which the company intends to implement starting in the fourth quarter of 2010, and which was decided upon in a company board of directors meeting. The price raise that the company foresees is part of an industry-wide trend and is a result of higher-priced raw materials | |
|
| |
| 5 | The cash flows are continuous and are received during the course of the entire year, and on average, the flow for a year’s activity is received in the middle of the year. Therefore, the period of capitalization is adjusted to the date of reception of the average flow. See also the description below, in the section relating to the capitalization rate. | |


| | | ● | Growth in the quantity of cardboard that will be sold of approximately 4%, in line with the forecast growth in Israeli GDP | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | Acquisition of a modern machine for processing and printing that is expected to increase production output (and meet demand in peak months), and also to expand the company’s product line to premium products that are sold at higher prices than basic products | |
| | | | | |
| | | | To be conservative, in the cash flow forecast we assumed that the expected price raise at the company would harm its sales capacity, and that the company revenues in 2011 would grow at a rate of only 6%. For the rest of the years of the forecast, we assumed a rise of about 3% in company revenues each year, based on assumptions of the company management regarding the rate of market growth. In this context it should be noted that the company possesses production capacity that is currently not fully exploited, and it is capable of producing the quantities of products derived from the forecast with no increase in production capacity. | |
| | 3.2. | Cost of Sales | |
| | | | | | |
| | | For 2011, our estimates were based on the company management’s budget, and reflect a cost of sales sold equaling 86.8%-87.7% of adjusted revenues. Based on the data received from the company management, according to which the component of fixed costs in the cost of sales represents 30% of the total cost, and based on the assumption that the effects of the optimization process that the company is implementing will continue (and similarly for the reorganization process at Tri-wall), we assumed a minimal improvement (roughly 1%) in the company’s cost of goods sold for the entire forecast period. Thus the cost of goods sold in a representative year will stand at 85.6% of revenues. | |
| | | | | | |
| | 3.3 | Selling, marketing, general and administrative expenses | |
| | | | | | |
| | | For 2011, our estimates were based on the company management’s budget, and reflect the cost of sales, management, and general expenditures at a level of 9.7% of revenues. For the years 2012-2015, it was assumed that due to the character of the expenditures and their significant fixed component, the rate of growth in expenditures would represent half the growth rate of sales, such that the rate of sales expenditures would be as represented in the following table: | |
| | | 2010 | | 2011 | | 2012 | | 2013 | | 2014 | | 2015 | |
| Year | | Q4 | | Year 1 | | Year 2 | | Year 3 | | Year 4 | | Year 5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Percentage of expenditures out of total sales | | 9.7 | % | | 9.6 | % | | 9.5 | % | | 9.3 | % | | 9.2 | % | | 9.1 | % | |
| | 3.4. | Tax | |
| | | | | |
| | | Even though according to standard guidelines tax should not be included in the cash flow forecast, in practice, and in accordance with the explanations accompanying the standard, tax effects can be included in the cash flow as long as the capitalization rate is adjusted for this. | |
| | | | | |
| | | The tax rates that were used for calculating tax expenditures in the model are in accordance with the updated statutory tax rate expected in Israel in the years of the forecast, in accordance with the decision of the government of Israel of July 2009 (the economic optimization program). In the representative year, the tax rate has been set in accordance with the tax rate over the long term – 18%: | |
| | | 2010 | | 2011 | | 2012 | | 2013 | | 2014 | | 2015 | |
| Year | | Q4 | | Year 1 | | Year 2 | | Year 3 | | Year 4 | | Year 5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Tax Rate | | 25.0 | % | | 24.0 | % | | 23.0 | % | | 22.0 | % | | 21.0 | % | | 20.0 | % | |
| | 3.5. | Working Capital | |
| | | | | |
| | | The company’s working capital includes customers, debtors, and debt and inventory balances, minus liabilities to suppliers and service providers, creditors, and credit balances. | |
| | | | | |
| | | Following is a calculation of working capital for the years 2008-2009 and up to 9.30.2010, in thousands of NIS: | |
| Working Capital | | 9.30.2010 | | 2009 | | 2008 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| Customers, Net | | 158,278 | | | 161,037 | | | 164,563 | | |
| Debtors and debt balances | | 3,904 | | | 5,556 | | | 3,015 | | |
| Inventory | | 60,979 | | | 47,245 | | | 60,935 | | |
| With deduction | |
| Liabilities to suppliers and service providers | | (91,661 | ) | | (88,902 | ) | | (84,220 | ) | |
| Creditors and credit balances | | (13,232 | ) | | (15,217 | ) | | (18,404 | ) | |
| Net working capital | | 118,268 | | | 109,719 | | | 125,889 | | |
| Percentage of sales (for assumed annual sales) | | 31.3 | % | | 28.6 | % | | 30.1 | % | |
| | | According to the 2011 company budget, the rate of working capital will stand at 28.6% of revenues (similar to the results of 2009)6. Therefore, in 2011, we applied the updated company budget recommendations in regard to the rate of working capital. For the rest of the model period, we assumed that the percentage of revenues represented by working capital would remain unchanged. | |
| | | | | |
| | 3.6. | Depreciation and Investments | |
| | | | | |
| | | In accordance with clarifications received from the company management, the majority of fixed assets is represented by machinery and equipment with an expected economic life lasting many decades. In financial reports, this equipment depreciates significantly over short terms (about 10 years), and therefore there is a significant gap between the need for additional investment and the amount of periodic depreciation. Also, during 2010, the company invested significantly in equipment (approximately 31 million NIS, representing roughly 60% of the net fixed assets of the company before the purchase). Therefore, the company does not foresee significant investments in equipment over the next few years. It has been assumed that the company will invest roughly 5 million NIS annually for fixed assets, in 2011 and in the forecast period (representing on average about half of the depreciation for that period). For a representative year it has been assumed that the level of investment will equal the level of annual depreciation. | |
|
| |
| 6 | It should be noted that the company budget for 2011 set a rate of working capital of 31.3% of revenues. The company was directed by the parent company to meet a budgetary target for 2011 of a ratio of working capital at a rate of 28%, comparable to the ratio in 2009. The company accepted the directive from Hadera Paper, and the budget was adjusted. | |
| | 3.7. | Summary of the Assumptions for the Cash Flow Forecast Model | |
| | | | | |
| | | The following table summarizes the assumptions for the company cash flow forecast model: | |
| | | Represent | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Explanation | | ative year | | 2015F | | 2014F | | 2013F | | 2012F | | 2011B | | 2010A* | | 2009A | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| See section 3.1 above | | 2.5 | % | | 3.0 | % | | 3.0 | % | | 3.0 | % | | 3.0 | % | | 6.0 | % | | 3.7 | % | | | | | Rate of revenue growth (%) | |
| See section 3.2 above | | 85.6 | % | | 85.6 | % | | 85.9 | % | | 86.2 | % | | 86.5 | % | | 86.8 | % | | 88.0 | % | | 85.9 | % | | Cost of goods sold (% of revenue) | |
| | | 14.4 | % | | 14.4 | % | | 14.1 | % | | 13.8 | % | | 13.5 | % | | 13.2 | % | | 12.0 | % | | 14.1 | % | | Gross profit (% of revenue) | |
| See section 3.3 above | | 9.0 | % | | 9.0 | % | | 9.2 | % | | 9.3 | % | | 9.4 | % | | 9.6 | % | | 10.9 | % | | 10.9 | % | | Management and general (% of revenue) | |
| Improvement in operating profit as a result of: (1) Improvement of gross profit; (2) Fixed component of management and general costs | | 5.3 | % | | 5.3 | % | | 4.9 | % | | 4.5 | % | | 4.0 | % | | 3.6 | % | | 1.0 | % | | 3.3 | % | | operating profit (% of revenue) | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| depreciation model based on fixed assets and investments | | 5,000 | | | 6,200 | | | 13,900 | | | 13,700 | | | 16,300 | | | 16,900 | | | 13,600 | | | 16,700 | | | depreciation | |
| See section 3.6 above | | 5,000 | | | 5,000 | | | 5,000 | | | 5,000 | | | 5,000 | | | 5,000 | | | 31,400 | | | 7,200 | | | investment | |
| See section 3.5 above | | 28.6 | % | | 28.6 | % | | 28.6 | % | | 28.6 | % | | 28.6 | % | | 28.6 | % | | 31.3 | % | | 28.6 | % | | working capital | |
| Based on actual data of the first three quarters, and the company’s forecast for Q4 2010 | |
| | | | |
| | | As can be seen in the above summary table, the cash flow forecast model is based mostly on the 2011 company budget (except for the forecast of growth and investment), a budget that assumes higher profitability than that presented by the company in 2010 financial reports. | |
| | | | | |
| | | On the basis of conversations with the company management regarding ongoing company operations and its long-term plans, and after extensive examinations of company outcomes in recent years, the nature of the market for such activity, and outcomes of similar companies in Israel and abroad, we became convinced that the company outcomes in 2010 do not reflect the company’s profitability potential, and that the company budget for 2011 represents a representative index for future profitability potential of the company. This was due to a number of central reasons: | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | 2010 was characterized by a significant rise in the cost of raw materials used by the company, which form a good part its cost of goods sold. For the third quarter of 2010, the company began raising its products’ sale prices in order to shift the raw material cost rise to the company’s customers, as is accepted industry practice. This trend, which is expected to continue in 2011, and which was approved at a meeting of the company board of directors, in part of an industry-wide trend. | |


| | | ● | The company initiated optimization processes with the goal of lowering costs of goods sold, and general and management expenditures, and also of improving the company’s operational profit. Also, the company initiated a significant reorganization process in Tri-wall activities (specified above), with the goal of bringing the activity of the packaging, sheeting, and boxes sector to positive operational profitability. | |
| | | | | |
| | | ● | The company recently carried out a large investment in equipment (specified above) that is expected to expand company production capability in general, and in peak months in particular, and it is also expected to develop the premium product market for the company, which is characterized by high profitability rates. | |
| | | | | |
| | | Despite the above, to be conservative in the cash flow forecast, we have chosen to significantly lower the rate of revenue growth that the company expects for 2011 (from 18% to 6%), and also to significantly increase the forecast company investments for 2011, thus changing the forecast (from roughly 1 million NIS to about 5 million NIS). | |
| | | | | |
| | 3.8. | Following is the company cash flow forecast for the period 2010Q4-2015 (in millions of NIS): | |
| | 2009 | | 2010 | | 2010 | | 2010 | | 2011 | | 2012 | | 2013 | | 2014 | | 2015 | | |
| | Q1-Q4 | | Q1-Q3 | | 2010E | | Q4E | | Year | | Year | | Year | | Year | | Year | | Representative |
Year | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | 2 | | 3 | | 4 | | 5 | | year |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Sales | | 383.0 | | | 283.4 | | | 397.4 | | | 114.0 | | | 421.2 | | | 433.9 | | | 446.9 | | | 460.3 | | | 474.1 | | | 486.0 | |
cost of goods sold | | 329.0 | | | 249.8 | | | 349.8 | | | 100.0 | | | 365.7 | | | 375.4 | | | 385.3 | | | 395.5 | | | 405.9 | | | 415.8 | |
gross profit | | 54.0 | | | 33.6 | | | 47.6 | | | 14.0 | | | 55.6 | | | 58.5 | | | 61.6 | | | 64.8 | | | 68.2 | | | 70.1 | |
Sales management and general | | 41.6 | | | 32.5 | | | 43.5 | | | 11.0 | | | 40.4 | | | 41.0 | | | 41.7 | | | 42.3 | | | 42.9 | | | 43.5 | |
operating profit | | 12.8 | | | 1.1 | | | 4.1 | | | 3.0 | | | 15.1 | | | 17.5 | | | 20.0 | | | 22.6 | | | 25.3 | | | 25.9 | |
tax payment | | | | | | | | | | | (0.8 | ) | | (3.6 | ) | | (4.0 | ) | | (4.4 | ) | | (4.7 | ) | | (5.1 | ) | | (4.7 | ) |
operating profit after tax | | | | | | | | | | | 2.3 | | | 11.5 | | | 13.5 | | | 15.6 | | | 17.8 | | | 20.2 | | | 21.3 | |
depreciation | | 16.7 | | | 10.2 | | | 13.6 | | | 3.4 | | | 16.9 | | | 16.3 | | | 13.7 | | | 13.9 | | | 6.2 | | | 5.0 | |
investment | | (7.2 | ) | | (31.4 | ) | | (32.7 | ) | | (1.3 | ) | | (5.0 | ) | | (5.0 | ) | | (5.0 | ) | | (5.0 | ) | | (5.0 | ) | | (5.0 | ) |
changes in working capital | | | | | | | | | | | (6.1 | ) | | 3.9 | | | (3.6 | ) | | (3.7 | ) | | (3.8 | ) | | (3.9 | ) | | (3.4 | ) |
FCF | | | | | | | | | | | (1.7 | ) | | 27.3 | | | 21.2 | | | 20.6 | | | 22.8 | | | 17.4 | | | 238.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.125 | | | 0.750 | | | 1.750 | | | 2.750 | | | 3.750 | | | 4.750 | | | 4.750 | |
flow to capitalization | | | | | | | | | | | (1.7 | ) | | 25.4 | | | 17.9 | | | 15.8 | | | 16.0 | | | 11.1 | | | 151.5 | |
| 4. | Cost of Capital | |
| | | | | |
| | In accordance with the guidelines of the standard, the rate of capitalization needs to be the discount rate before taxes that reflects the ongoing market estimates of: | |
| | | | | |
| | A. The money’s time value. | |
| | | | | |
| | B. The specific risks due to which the cash flows have been adjusted. | |
| | | | | |
| | Nevertheless, even though according to the standard’s guidelines before-tax capitalization rates should be used, in practice, and in accordance with explanations accompanying the standard, the outcome of the calculation that will be obtained from flow capitalization before taxes at a suitable discount rate before taxes, needs to be identical with the outcome to be obtained from flow capitalization after taxes and use of a suitable discount rate after taxes. For these reasons, we have chosen to execute our calculations on the basis of after-tax flows while using the after-tax discount rate. In the valuation model we assumed a weighted cost of capital (WACC) of 10%. | |


| | The cost of capitalization reflects, among other things, the commercial-operational risk in the company’s activities. Part of the above risk is the risk stemming from the nature of the industry in which the company operates, and part of the risk stems from the company’s particular characteristics. | |
| | | | | |
| | The normative costs of capitalization accepted in the market for various industries (based on professional literature and other public information, including valuations of public corporations, as well as the professional experience of Giza Singer Even in the field) generally range between 6%, for net cash flows of real estate holdings with yields, and 8-10% for companies with relatively low expected commercial-operational fluctuations (such as Osem, Shufersal, etc.). Costs of capital for relatively wealthy hi-tech firms and for companies characterized by relatively high expected commercial-operational fluctuations range between 11-15%. Costs of capital of over 15% are characteristic of, mostly, hi-tech firms in early stages of development, and companies that operate in riskier fields. Additionally, to the normative industry capitalization rates will be added the premium for specific risks for each company. | |
| | | | | |
| | The cost of capital for Carmel is set on the basis of our experience and professional judgment, as well as on the capitalization rates accepted in our firm for systematic commercial-operational risk for operational cash flows in similar industries, and in addition, on the basis of the commercial-operational risk specific to the company’s and industry’s activities, and on the fact that the company functions in an especially competitive market characterized by a multiplicity of competitors. | |
| | | | | |
| | Based on our experience and professional judgment, along with adjustments stemming from our estimation of the company’s exposure to industry risks and macroeconomic risks, we evaluated the company’s weighted cost of capital in the range of 10%. | |
| | | | | |
| | As a complementary check for the purpose of estimating the company’s cost of capital, an estimation was done of the weighted cost of capital, the WACC (while using the CAPM model to calculate cost of equity), while comparing to similar public companies. The weighted cost of capital that was obtained from this estimation is roughly 9.2%, calculated as follows: | |
| | | | | |
| Parameter | | Value | | Comment | |
| | | | | | | | |
| Risk-free interest | | 2.80 | % | | 1 | | |
| Beta | | 1.41 | | | 2 | | |
| Market premium | | 6.7 | % | | 3 | | |
| Cost of company equity | | 12.27 | % | | | | |
| Cost of debt | | 5.0 | % | | 4 | | |
| Tax rate | | 18.0 | % | | 5 | | |
| D/V | | 38 | % | | | | |
| WACC | | 9.2 | % | | | | |
| | Comments regarding the table: | |
| | 1. | The rate of real return on multiyear redemption of Israel government bonds is linked to the CPI for a 30-year period. | |


| | 2. | In order to determine the beta of the company, we examined a group of similar companies. With respect to the different levels of beta of the chosen companies, the updated datum appears in the table. | |
| | | | | |
| | 3. | For the purpose of estimating this rate, we took the average gap between annual return of the general stock market index of the Tel Aviv stock exchange, and the economy’s risk-free interest. | |
| | | | | |
| | 4. | In accordance with the level of interest the company pays on long-term loans. | |
| | | | | |
| | 5. | The long-term tax rate in the State of Israel. | |
| | | | | |
| 5. | Long-term Growth | |
| | | | | |
| | The company’s permanent rate of growth that we assumed in the model is 2.5%. This rate was determined through consideration of the growth rates of the population and GDP, which represent indicators for the growth rate of products the company manufactures and sells. | |
| | | | | |
| 6. | Summary of the Value of Operation | |
| | | | | |
| | Following all of the assumptions specified above, the derived utility value is roughly 236 million NIS. Since the utility value that was obtained does not indicate a need for devaluation, we will not examine the net sale price value of the unit, and the returnable valuation was thus determined based on utility value alone. | |
| | | | | |
| | For this utility value, we conducted a number of sensitivity tests, relating to various parameters as detailed in the following tables: | |
| | | | | |
| | A. | Analysis of sensitivity to cost of capital and permanent rate of growth, in thousands of NIS: | |
| | | Long-term Growth | |
| | | 236.0 | | 2.00% | | 2.25% | | 2.50% | | 2.75% | | 3.00% | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 9.50 | % | | 245.3 | | | 248.2 | | | 251.4 | | | 254.7 | | | 258.4 | | |
| | | 9.75 | % | | 238.0 | | | 240.6 | | | 243.4 | | | 246.5 | | | 249.7 | | |
| Capitalization | | 10.00 | % | | 231.1 | | | 233.5 | | | 236.0 | | | 238.7 | | | 241.6 | | |
| | | 10.25 | % | | 224.7 | | | 226.8 | | | 229.1 | | | 231.5 | | | 234.1 | | |
| | | 10.50 | % | | 218.6 | | | 220.6 | | | 222.6 | | | 224.8 | | | 227.1 | | |
| | B. | Analysis of sensitivity to changes in cost of capital and rate of growth in 2011, in thousands of NIS: | |
| | | Growth in 2011 | |
| | | 236.0 | | 2.00% | | 6.00% | | 10.00% | | 12.00% | | 18.00% | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 9.50 | % | | 247.5 | | | 251.4 | | | 255.2 | | | 257.2 | | | 262.9 | | |
| | | 9.75 | % | | 239.9 | | | 243.4 | | | 247.0 | | | 248.8 | | | 254.2 | | |
| Capitalization | | 10.00 | % | | 232.7 | | | 236.0 | | | 239.4 | | | 241.0 | | | 246.0 | | |
| | | 10.25 | % | | 226.1 | | | 229.1 | | | 232.2 | | | 233.7 | | | 238.3 | | |
| | | 10.50 | % | | 219.8 | | | 222.6 | | | 225.4 | | | 226.9 | | | 231.1 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |

| APPENDIX A | |
| Appendix to the valuation for impairment testing dated 7/11/2010 | |
| 1. | On November 7, 2010, we evaluated the operations of Carmel Container Systems Ltd. (hereinafter: “Carmel” and/or “the Company”) as on September 30, 2010, in relation to a test for impairment of the Company’s goodwill for its parent company, Hadera Paper Ltd. (hereinafter: “Hadera Paper”). The value of Carmel’s operations determined in the aforesaid valuation is NIS 236.04 million (hereinafter: “the Valuation”). | |
| | | |
| 2. | The surplus value of Carmel’s net financial liabilities as on September 30, 2010 was approximately NIS 77.63 million. | |
| | | |
| 3. | Accordingly, the value of the equity deriving from the value of the operations determined in the valuation as aforesaid is approximately NIS 158.41 million, as follows: | |
| NIS millions |
Value of the Company’s operations | 236.04 |
Less | |
Net financial liabilities | 77.63 |
Equals | |
Eq uity value | 158.41 |
| 4. | It should be noted that, according to Hadera Paper’s declaration dated February 3, 2011, no material events relating to the Company transpired since the date of the valuation. | |
| | Sincerely, | |
| |  | |
| | Giza Singer Even | |
| | | |
| Date: February 13, 2011 | | |
| APPENDIX B | |
| Comparison with valuations from previous years | |
| 1. | On November 7, 2010, we evaluated the operations of Carmel Container Systems Ltd. (hereinafter: “Carmel” and/or “the Company”) as on September 30, 2010, in relation to a test for impairment of the Company’s goodwill for its parent company, Hadera Paper Ltd. (hereinafter: “Hadera Paper”). The value of Carmel’s operations determined in the aforesaid valuation is NIS 236.04 million (hereinafter: “the Valuation”). | |
| | | |
| 2. | It should be noted that Giza Singer Even (hereinafter: “Giza”) had prepared a number of economic analyses concerning the Company in recent years, including a test for impairment for the purposes of financial statements of previous years, as follows: | |
Valuation of Carmel’s operations (in NIS millions) |
Date | 30.9.2010 | 30.9.2009 |
Subject of the Work | Goodwill impairment | Goodwill impairment |
| test | test |
Methodology | DCF | DCF |
Value | 236.04 | 229.5 |
| | Following are those factors that led to the rise in the Company’s value compared with the previous valuation: | |
| | | | | |
| | ● | The Company invested heavily in the purchase of a modern manufacturing machine which: | |
| | | | | |
| | | O | should increase production capacity efficiency and improve product quality; | |
| | | | | |
| | | O | shall manufacture products that are expected to be sold at premium prices; | |
| | | | | |
| | | O | furthermore, in light of the heavy investment in 2010, the Company’s future investments are expected to diminish. | |
| | | | | |
| | ● | The Company implemented processes to increase efficiency, the aims being to reduce selling costs and operating expenses. The Company also implemented a significant reorganization process in the operations of the subsidiary, Tri-Wall, which, according to the assessment of the Company’s Management, is expected to lead the packaging segment operations to positive operating profitability. | |

| | ● | The Company is expecting a process of price increases, the aim being to compensate for the rise in the raw materials prices, with the objective of sustaining and improving the Company’s gross profitability. | |
| | | | | |
| | ● | The forecasted improvement in the economic situation in Israel and gradual extrication from the global recession, which affected the Company’s results between 2008 and 2010. | |
| | Sincerely, | |
| |  | |
| | Giza Singer Even | |
| Date: February 23, 2011 | | |
Conducting an impairment testing for the assets
of the packaging paper business under the
provisions of IAS 36
An impairment test for the assets of Hadera Paper – Packaging Paper and Recycling Ltd (hereinafter – "Hadera Paper Packaging") at December 31, 2010, was conducted at the Company's request, for the purposes of financial reporting as of that date. The testing below was conducted in accordance with the guidelines of International Accounting Standard (IAS) 36 "Impairment of Assets".
The Enterprise Value (EV) of Hadera Paper Packaging as of December 31, 2010 was estimated at NIS 887-975 million compared to the value of net operating assets on the balance sheet of Hadera Paper Packaging at that date, in the amount of NIS 736 million.
The EV of Hadera Paper Packaging was derived from the complete valuation pertaining to the economic value of Hadera Paper, including a description of its operation, the business environment, financial analysis and Discount Cash Flow (DCF) methodology, etc. The above valuation is based on the valuation of Hadera Paper on a consolidated basis17 and does not determine the EV of Hadera Paper as an independent business unit.
For convenience purposes, the assumptions used in determining the enterprise value of Hadera Paper Packaging include all the relevant assumptions, even if they were included in the valuation of Hadera Paper, as follows:
Revenues and profitability
| - | The production capacity of Hadera Paper Packaging in 2011 will increase to 309,000 tons and from 2012 it will stabilize at 320,000 ton packaging paper per annum, compared to 160,000 ton in 2009 and 270,000 in 2010, in which Machine 8 became operational on June 1, 2010; |
| - | Sales of packaging paper to the domestic market in quantitative terms will grow by 3% per annum during the forecast period and by 1.5% in the long term; the company's market share will gradually increase from 38% in 2010 to 60% in 2014 and thereafter, while surplus production will be directed to exports. Exports in quantitative terms will gradually decline during the forecast period from 45% in 2011 to 18% in the long term; |
17 Net of Hadera Paper Printing, Carmel and Frenkel
| - | The price of packaging paper in Israel in 2011 will be 10% higher than the average price in 2010, similar to the actual selling price at the end of 2010. The average price will increase 3% in 2012 and 1% per annum in 2013-2014 and in 2015 and thereafter there will be no change in the selling price. These assumptions reflect a slow economic improvement relative to the situation in the sector in the last quarter of 2010; |
| - | The price of exported packaging paper in 2011 will be 18% higher than the average price in 2010, and similar to the actual selling price late in 2010. The average price will increase 3% in 2012, stabilizing at this level from 2013. These assumptions reflect a slow economic improvement relative to the situation in the sector in the last quarter of 2010; |
| - | It was assumed that the cost of materials for a ton of packaging paper will increase by 8% in 2011 relative to 2010 due to the need to supplement raw materials through imports, and will decline by 5% in 2012 following a reduction in waste paper imports. The cost of materials will remain unchanged in 2013 and thereafter. |
| - | It was assumed that other variable production costs account for 83% of total other production costs. It was also assumed that the other variable production costs will increase by 7% in 2011-2012 and will remained unchanged during the remaining forecast period. Other fixed production costs will grow by 5% per annum in 2011-2012 and during the remaining forecast period will grow by 1.5% per annum. The increase in other production costs reflects expectations for the rise in natural gas prices, which is used in the generation of energy by Hadera Paper Infrastructures; |
| - | The cost of production manpower will increase by 6% in 2011, by 3% per annum in 2012-2013 and by 1.5% per annum in 2014 and thereafter; |
| - | It was assumed that selling and marketing expenses will represent 4% of revenues, similar to the percentage of these expenses in 2010; |
| - | It was assumed that administrative and general expenses will increase by 1.5% per annum during the forecast period, compared to stability in these expenses in 2010 relative to 2009; |
| - | It was assumed that the contribution for Hadera Paper Packaging from the agreement with Clal P.V., as stated in section 3(a)(f) will amount to NIS 0.3 million per annum as of 2012. This contribution was deducted from the company's administrative and general expenses; |
The table below is a summary of the business forecast for Hadera Paper Packaging:
| | 2009 | | | | *2010 | | | | 2011 | | | | 2012 | | | | 2013 | | | | 2014 | | | | 2015 | | | | 2016 | | | | 2017 | | | Typical year | |
| | Actual | | | Forecast | |
| | NIS million | |
Revenues | | | 211 | | | | 367 | | | | 588 | | | | 633 | | | | 645 | | | | 656 | | | | 659 | | | | 662 | | | | 664 | | | | 666 | |
Cost of revenue | | | 232 | | | | 342 | | | | 518 | | | | 534 | | | | 535 | | | | 536 | | | | 538 | | | | 539 | | | | 540 | | | | 541 | |
Gross profit | | | (21 | ) | | | 25 | | | | 70 | | | | 99 | | | | 110 | | | | 120 | | | | 121 | | | | 123 | | | | 124 | | | | 125 | |
Selling & marketing | | | 8 | | | | 15 | | | | 24 | | | | 26 | | | | 26 | | | | 27 | | | | 27 | | | | 27 | | | | 27 | | | | 27 | |
Administrative & general | | | 6 | | | | 6 | | | | 6 | | | | 6 | | | | 7 | | | | 7 | | | | 7 | | | | 7 | | | | 7 | | | | 7 | |
Operating profit | | | (35 | ) | | | 4 | | | | 39 | | | | 66 | | | | 77 | | | | 87 | | | | 88 | | | | 89 | | | | 90 | | | | 91 | |
* 2010 results are net of the testing results for Machine 8, which were capitalized to fixed assets | |
Taxation
Due to the absence of approved investment plans and other tax benefits, other than accelerated depreciation for tax purposes of the investment in Machine 8, as stated in section 3(a)(1) of the opinion, based on past experience, it was assumed that the effective tax rate for Hadera Paper during the forecast period will be identical to the statutory tax rate. Regarding the method of determining the tax rate in the forecast period, see section 2(b) of the opinion.
The economic benefit from the accelerated depreciation for tax purposes of the investment in Machine 8 stems from two factors: postponement of tax payments to later years, even if the tax rate had not been reduced, and economic benefit from the reduction of corporate tax from 24% in 2010 to 18% in 2016, while in the first few years the company will not be subject to a tax rate as high as that of the next few years. For the purpose of assessing the value of this benefit an estimated cash flow was calculated for the loss utilization period and for the period in which the profit for tax purposes will exceed the profit recorded in the books ("the reversal period") and was discounted as of the valuation date. The value of the tax benefit from the accelerated depreciation of equipment for tax purposes is estimated at NS 29 million.
Investments and depreciation
It was assumed that once Machine 8 becomes operational, the level of investment of Hadera Paper Packaging during the forecast period will be NIS 14 million and in the representative year will be NIS 36 million, equal to the amount of depreciation.
The amount of depreciation and amortization during the forecast period is expected to be NIS 36 million.
In order to reflect the company's assessment that in the first twenty years of the life of Machine 8, the capital investment in this machine will be lower than the amount of depreciation in respect thereof, it was assumed that the difference between the investments and the depreciation will continue after the eighth year of the forecast (the representative year), where it was assumed that investments will match depreciation. In light of this, the excess of depreciation over capital expenditures was calculated for the years 2018-2027 under the assumption that the difference between depreciation and investment in 2017 will decrease each year by NIS 2 million down to zero in 2028. The excess of depreciation over capital expenditures during this period is discounted as of the date of valuation and estimated at NIS 41 million.
Working capital
It was assumed that in 2011 Hadera Paper Packaging will need an operating working capital of 20% of revenues, similar to the working capital as a percentage of revenues in 2010 – which was 19%. In subsequent years the percentage of working capital will increase to 23% of revenues as a result of diverting sales from exports to the local market, which will require extending higher credit to customers.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and Long-term growth rate
A real cost of capital was determined at 9.25%-9.75% per annum and 9.5% on average. The average cost of capital represents the following assumptions: cost of equity of 12% per annum, cost of debt of 5% per annum, tax rate of 18% per annum and financial leverage of 35%.
The cost of equity of 12% per annum was calculated using the CAPM model as stated in section 2(b) above. It was assumed that the long-term risk-free interest rate is 2.7% a year, the long-term risk premium of the market is 7-9% a year and the beta coefficient of the company is 1.1-1.25. The range of the beta coefficient was derived from the accepted beta coefficients in the paper, wood and packaging industry18.
The risk-free cost of capital in the model, 2.7% per annum, was derived from the yield to maturity of CPI-linked bonds of the Israeli government for periods above 10 years on December 31, 2010. The cost of debt of Hadera Paper in the model was determined as the risk-free cost of capital with the addition the company's risk premium. The risk premium was determined as the difference on the valuation date between the yield-to-maturity of corporate bonds with a similar rating to that of the company's bonds and the yield to maturity of CPI-linked bonds of the Israeli government with a similar duration.
Regarding the method of determining the risk-free cost of capital and the cost of debt of the company, see section 2(b) in the above opinion.
It was assumed that the Free Cash Flow (FCF) of Hadera Paper would grow in the long term at a rate of 1.25%-1.75% per annum with an average of 1.5% per annum, similar to the growth rate of the population. This is under the assumption that technological enhancements, use of Machine 1 for the manufacture of packaging paper and the increase in the turnover of domestic sales will enable production capacity to grow at this rate in the long term without capital expenditures in excess of depreciation.
18 See list of beta coefficients by Aswath Damodaran
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/Betas.html
Below is the method of calculating the EV of Hadera Paper Packaging
| | 2011 | | | 2012 | | | 2013 | | | 2014 | | | 2015 | | | 2016 | | | 2017 | | | Typical year | |
| | Forecast | |
| | NIS million | |
Packaging operating profit | | | 39 | | | | 66 | | | | 77 | | | | 87 | | | | 88 | | | | 89 | | | | 90 | | | | 91 | |
Tax rate | | | 24 | % | | | 23 | % | | | 22 | % | | | 21 | % | | | 20 | % | | | 18 | % | | | 18 | % | | | 18 | % |
Tax | | | 9 | | | | 15 | | | | 17 | | | | 18 | | | | 18 | | | | 16 | | | | 16 | | | | 16 | |
Operating profit after tax | | | 30 | | | | 51 | | | | 60 | | | | 68 | | | | 70 | | | | 73 | | | | 74 | | | | 74 | |
Depreciation | | | 35 | | | | 35 | | | | 35 | | | | 35 | | | | 35 | | | | 35 | | | | 35 | | | | 35 | |
Investment in fixed assets | | | (14 | ) | | | (14 | ) | | | (14 | ) | | | (14 | ) | | | (14 | ) | | | (14 | ) | | | (14 | ) | | | (35 | ) |
Changes in working capital | | | (34 | ) | | | (12 | ) | | | (6 | ) | | | (6 | ) | | | (4 | ) | | | (4 | ) | | | (1 | ) | | | (0 | ) |
Free cash flow | | | 17 | | | | 60 | | | | 75 | | | | 84 | | | | 87 | | | | 90 | | | | 94 | | | | 74 | |
Discounted cash flow | | | 16 | | | | 52 | | | | 60 | | | | 61 | | | | 58 | | | | 55 | | | | 52 | | | | | |
Excess depreciation over capital expenditure | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 61 | |
Residual value | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 513 | |
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The following information complements the information disclosed in the above opinion, pursuant to provisions of the regulations: