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Dennis S. Hudson III: | | Thanks, Bill. We appreciate those comments. I’d invite you to take a close look at the tables we provided in the last two pages of our press release. There you will see in significant detail a trending of our loan balances by loan categories. We provided a tremendous amount of detail in that table; and as you look at that, it’s very clear and very evident that we have made remarkable progress in 2009. That progress really started in late 2008 and actually began earlier than that. Our total construction and development loans related to residential development have been reduced to only 3% of total loans through this period of time, down to almost a nominal number at this point. The entire construction development portfolio has been reduced down to only 11% of total loans and a substantial portion of that are loans to individuals. We have maintained pretty solid stable growth in the CRE portfolio. But as we lay out the detailed trend for loan balances over the last two years at the end of the press release and as those tables demonstrate, we have focused our liquidation efforts on the most problematic areas having the greatest loss potential. This has been our plan for 2009 and this is the path to restoring profitability, hopefully, in 2010 at some point. |
| | We’d now be happy to take a few questions, and we’ll turn the call back over to our moderator. |
Operator: | | Thank you. If you have a question, please press star and then one on your touchtone phone. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press the pound sign or the hash key. If you are using a speakerphone, you may need to pick up the handset first before pressing the numbers. Again for any questions, please press star/one on your touchtone phone. |
| | Our first question comes from Christopher Marinac from FIG Partners. Please go ahead. |
Christopher Marinac: | | Thanks. Good morning, Denny and Bill... |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | Good morning. |
William R. Hahl: | | Good morning. |
Christopher Marinac: | | ....and Jean.Wanted to ask about your conviction about just seeing the rate of inflows slowing, whether it’s this quarter or the first half of the year, whatever timeframe you are comfortable speaking in. |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | Well, the reason we are taking a little more optimistic tone is that we have been carefully monitoring our portfolio of larger exposures for the past two years. |
Christopher Marinac: | | Right. |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | And we have achieved this quarter, with the loan sales that occurred this quarter—some of which were written down last quarter and further written down this quarter—a point where those large exposures are now down to a much more acceptable level. And I think in an aggregate sense, you see two things. You are hearing from us, and we’ve seen in the last couple of quarters in some of the detail that we have provided, clear cut evidence that we are reducing the average size of loan in the portfolio. The other thing that comes out very clearly in the detail that we provide is that most of our liquidation effort—and it’s not just been loan sales, it’s been a lot of hard work in terms of achieving traditional liquidation through collection efforts and the like—most of that effort has been in some of the problematic portfolios; and those problematic portfolios today, given where they started, have now come down to very, very low levels. For those reasons—the reduction in the largest credits and a clearer view of the remaining larger credits and what the condition of those credits are—combined with the dramatic reduction in various classes and types of loans that have been most problematic down to a level that is quite small, we are at the point now, Chris, where we just have a handful of loans of any size that we are continuing to monitor or have concerns about. So for those reasons, we believe the credit costs and the inflow now has been and will continue to moderate as we move into 2010. We also have the backdrop of things beginning to more clearly stabilize in the State from a valuation standpoint on the residential side. I think we have some ways to go on the commercial side over this next year, but market conditions are improving—stabilizing, probably more like stabilizing than improving at this point. So you add it all together and you begin to get the payoff from the tremendous and gut-wrenching work that we have done over the last 18 months. |
Jean Strickland: | | And the question about inflows, we do say in the press release that early stage delinquencies improved or remained stable for all portfolios during the last quarter, and we continue to see that be the case. |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | And finally, we have seen since mid-year a continual reduction in the level of classified—internal classifieds coming down. All of this that I have described has really occurred in the context of the last six months, the first in the cycle. We are seeing now—and we have been through two quarters of improving internal metrics—that it is translating into some of external metrics, and certainly the gross numbers are just coming down. So we are sitting here, like I said, at this point in the cycle, with only a 3% exposure to residential construction loans. Most of the 3% that is left has been written down two/three/four times, analyzed six ways to Sunday—I mean we are getting there. |
Christopher Marinac: | | Great. That’s very helpful color. I appreciate that.Just one follow-up on the margin: Do you have any sense of what a normalized margin, if that’s the right term, could be, and all things being equal, what type of margin lift can happen over time? |
William R. Hahl: | | Well I think I tried to cover that, Chris, on my comments. I think that on the short run... |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | You stopped short of saying what the margin was going to be though. I did notice that. |
William R. Hahl: | | Well, I said it was going to be stable from the fourth quarter, again because of the inflows that impacted it in the fourth quarter. And we are seeing a continuation of CD rates—the new rates coming on—at below 1%. I think overall CD rates were north of two, so we have got some room for improvement there going forward. We also had successful build on core personal deposits. And then as Denny mentioned, we are now looking towards doing the same thing in the small business area in 2010 to improve the mix; so we are hopeful we will get some lift to the margin. But asset yields are pretty low, so there is going to be some potential pressure on that without some loan growth at higher rates than the investments are at right now. |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | I think the key point we were making was the excess liquidity, which Bill just mentioned again. At some point we will begin to feel comfortable bringing that back in. |
William R. Hahl: | | Right. |
Christopher Marinac: | | Okay, that’s great, guys. Thank you very much. |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | Yeah. |
Operator: | | Our next question comes from Paul Connelly from Southwell Partners. |
Paul Connelly: | | Good morning. |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | Good morning. |
Paul Connelly: | | Could you talk a little bit about what trends you are seeing in the commercial real estate arena in Florida, and then specifically talk about your portfolio? You talked about maybe having some additional way to go there, and I just wanted to understand the TDR situation in the most recent quarter. |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | Sure. Well first of all, just a global comment: commercial real estate is continuing to be under stress given the level of unemployment and the whole market here. As I said last quarter, we have been concerned about that for over 12 months now, and probably beginning in the fourth quarter of 2008, we began to look very carefully at all of our commercial real estate exposures, working with borrowers to identify nonmonetary defaults and to begin to talk with them about additional collateral and other things that we could do to improve the position of the bank going forward. So we have been on that portfolio for quite awhile now, and we have a pretty deep understanding of where we are with it. Again, it’s a stressed environment, as we said. Vacancies have grown all year, generally speaking, across most markets. Most of our exposure is in markets here that have had a little better vacancy, but it’s still not a positive sort of position for us. Specifically looking at our CRE TDRs, there was a significant growth this quarter, as you saw. |
Jean Strickland: | | They were worked on for months. |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | Yeah, and those were things that we had worked on probably the last two quarters and were very significantly focused on trying to provide some sort of restructuring opportunities to provide some assistance to commercial real estate borrowers that we feel are viable—those that have positive cash flows, that are suffering with higher levels of vacancies and the like in this period, but have a good business plan and they have cash flow support, most importantly, for the troubled debt restructure and so forth. For those reasons, we have been very proactive in seeking opportunities to move things into a TDR status—where it makes sense and, again, where it’s supported with cash flow coverage. |
Jean Strickland: | | And we started talking about that strategy a few quarters ago. |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | A couple quarters ago, and I think last quarter we said we expected that number to increase. |
Jean Strickland: | | Right, and we have seen a decline in values across our markets; and in Florida, that’s the case generally. We have been talking about it for quite awhile. I think we have said historically that we saw a lot less loss potential in CRE than in the residential construction portfolio; and we’ve been working, as Denny mentioned, on identifying leverage to bring us to the table with the borrowers and shore up positions. We have done a lot of that, with one of the tool sets being troubled debt restructures. A couple of things came together in the fourth quarter that caused the increase in the number there, but we have been working on all types of strategies for really two years. |
Paul Connelly: | | In your earlier comments, you said that you thought real estate was stabilizing and that credit losses were peaking. Would you say the same is true for the CRE space? Are you seeing the trends regionally outside of your bank, and your portfolio specifically, to be stabilizing in CRE, or is it continuing to worsen? |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | I don’t think, Jean, we would say it’s stabilizing at this point. We don’t... |
Jean Strickland: | | Not on the CRE side. |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | We don’t see clear evidence of stabilization in the CRE side. |
Jean Strickland: | | We... |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | It would be fair to say we don’t see a lot of additional inflow at this point out ahead of us. |
Jean Strickland: | | Right, we have done a lot of work on that portfolio, anticipating a decline, so we think we’re ahead of the problem. We’ve been anticipating it, and it’s been talked about for quite a while; but we do see continued decline in approaching even the troubled debt structures. We also considered the fact that there might be some further slippage, and so we approached it in a way that there is some cushion there for further decline. |
Paul Connelly: | | Okay great. Thank you very much. |
Operator: | | Our next question comes from Ken Puglese from Sandler O’Neill. |
Ken Puglese: | | Hi, Denny. Ken Puglese. How are you? |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | Hey, Ken. |
Ken Puglese: | | Denny, I think a lot of people were surprised by the size of the loan sales and the sizeable losses, and you say in your press release that you were more successful with the loan sales than you had anticipated. I was just wondering, what was your original expectation for both the amount of sales and the amount of loss? |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | The big variance was the sale of the residential portfolio. We were not... that was something that came along that we could take advantage of. As we said in the press release, that accounted for about half of the loan sales that occurred this quarter, so it ended up being double maybe what we thought it would be, but I think it was the right thing to do. So I mean as... |
Ken Puglese: | | And what about the size of the loss, Denny, what was that relative to what you had anticipated? |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | It’s about double, or slightly more than double, what we anticipated. And again, it’s all driven by the residential sale, I would say. Again, that residential sale allowed us to probably take the next two years worth of residential losses and put them behind us. On that portfolio, it allows us to free up resources and redeploy some of our management resources back into the commercial area. It was just an opportunity to really complete a lot of work in the residential mortgage area. Now that portfolio has performed for us generally much better than the State as a whole. I think our NPAs before we did all this were in the high single digits in that portfolio, versus 15-16% or more for the State. This is a prime portfolio, so it had performed okay, but we also saw some stabilization occurring in the residential markets. We saw the level of inflow of problems coming into that portfolio slowing the last two quarters, and we had a lot of action on that portfolio. We had more interest in that than we thought we would get. |
Ken Puglese: | | So the losses that you took on the resi portfolio that you sold, was that a function of not having these loans marked down enough or... |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | No, it was... |
Ken Puglese: | | ...you were real aggressive with the prices you would accept? |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | No, when you sell a note, you are selling all of the future collection activity that goes along with that, and all the risk and so forth; so it’s a very different valuation than looking to the underlying collateral. Most of our work in sizing the residential carrying values up until that sale was based on bona fide understanding of where the value was on an asset-by-asset basis, assuming that a loan would become collateral dependent and that’s where our repayment was coming from. Again, we took probably the next two years worth of losses out of that portfolio and shoved it out the door in one quarter. |
Ken Puglese: | | Yeah.I’m just a little curious about the timing of the sales. Were they throughout the quarter; and did any of them occur after the end of the quarter and then were put into the fourth quarter numbers, or what? |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | Most of them got closed during the quarter, and they occurred in the second half. The residential was sort of a contingent thing we were looking at and we didn’t pull the trigger on that until later in the quarter. Finally, I think we have $10 million or so in loans held for sale, involving a commercial real estate loan that was written down and sold at the end of the quarter—that actually closed in January. |
Ken Puglese: | | I see. |
Dennis S. Hudson III: | | So at 12/31, we had about $10-11 million in our held for sale that represented a loan that was sold. |
Ken Puglese: | | Okay. Thank you very much. |