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Earnings simulation
. Management believes that interest rate risk is best estimated by our earnings simulation
modeling.
Forecasted levels of earning assets, interest-bearing liabilities, and off
-balance sheet financial instruments are combined
with ALCO forecasts of market interest rates for the next 12 months and other
factors in order to produce various earnings
simulations and estimates. To
help limit interest rate risk, we have guidelines for earnings at risk which seek to limit the
variance of net interest income from gradual changes in interest rates.
For changes up or down in rates from management’s
flat interest rate forecast over the next 12 months, policy limits for net interest income
variances are as follows:
●
+/- 20% for a gradual change of 400 basis points
●
+/- 15% for a gradual change of 300 basis points
●
+/- 10% for a gradual change of 200 basis points
●
+/- 5% for a gradual change of 100 basis points
While a gradual change in interest rates was used in the above analysis to provide an estimate
of exposure under these
scenarios, our modeling under both a gradual and instantaneous change in interest rates indicates
our balance sheet is asset
sensitive.
At March 31, 2023, our earnings simulation model indicated that we were in compliance
with the policy guidelines noted
. EVE measures the extent that the estimated economic values of our assets, liabilities, and off-
balance sheet items will change as a result of interest rate changes. Economic values
are estimated by discounting expected
cash flows from assets, liabilities, and off-balance sheet items,
which establishes a base case EVE. In contrast with our
earnings simulation model, which evaluates interest rate risk over a 12 month timeframe,
EVE uses a terminal horizon
which allows for the re-pricing of all assets, liabilities, and off-balance sheet items.
Further, EVE is measured using values
as of a point in time and does not reflect any actions that ALCO might take in responding to
or anticipating changes in
interest rates, or market and competitive conditions.
To help limit interest rate risk,
we have stated policy guidelines for an
instantaneous basis point change in interest rates, such that our EVE should not decrease from our
base case by more than
the following:
●
45% for an instantaneous change of +/- 400 basis points
●
35% for an instantaneous change of +/- 300 basis points
●
25% for an instantaneous change of +/- 200 basis points
●
15% for an instantaneous change of +/- 100 basis points
At March 31, 2023, our EVE model indicated that we were in compliance
with our policy guidelines.
Each of the above analyses may not, on its own, be an accurate indicator of how our net interest
income will be affected by
changes in interest rates. Income associated with interest-earning assets and costs associated
with interest-bearing liabilities
may not be affected uniformly by changes in interest rates. In addition,
the magnitude and duration of changes in interest
rates may have a significant impact on net interest income. For example, although certain
assets and liabilities may have
similar maturities or periods of repricing, they may react in different
degrees to changes in market interest rates, and other
economic and market factors, including market perceptions.
Interest rates on certain types of assets and liabilities fluctuate
in advance of changes in general market rates, while interest rates on other types of assets
and liabilities may lag behind
changes in general market rates. In addition, certain assets, such as adjustable rate
mortgage loans, have features (generally
referred to as “interest rate caps and floors”) which limit changes in interest rates.
Prepayments
and early withdrawal levels
also could deviate significantly from those assumed in calculating the maturity of certain instruments.
The ability of many
borrowers to service their debts also may decrease during periods of rising interest rates or economic
stress, which may
differ across industries and economic sectors. ALCO reviews each of the
above interest rate sensitivity analyses along with
several different interest rate scenarios in seeking satisfactory,
consistent levels of profitability within the framework of the
Company’s established liquidity,
loan, investment, borrowing, and capital policies.
The Company may also use derivative financial instruments to improve the balance betw
een interest-sensitive assets and
interest-sensitive liabilities, and as a tool to manage interest rate sensitivity
while continuing to meet the credit and deposit
needs of our customers. From time to time, the Company also may enter into back-to-back
interest rate swaps to facilitate
customer transactions and meet their financing needs. These interest rate swaps qualify
as derivatives, but are not
designated as hedging instruments. At March 31, 2023 and December 31,
2022, the Company had no derivative contracts
designated as part of a hedging relationship to assist in managing its interest rate sensitivity.