Sanford Bernstein
Strategic Decisions Conference
May 27, 2009
May 27, 2009
Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E)
PG&E SERVICE AREA
IN CALIFORNIA
IN CALIFORNIA
2
3-year Total Shareholder Return
Merchant Generator Group
Merchant Generator Group
AES Corporation
Dynegy Inc.
Mirant Corporation
Reliant Energy
Dynegy Inc.
Mirant Corporation
Reliant Energy
AES Corporation
Dynegy Inc.
Mirant Corporation
Reliant Energy
Dynegy Inc.
Mirant Corporation
Reliant Energy
Comparator Group
Comparator Group
Ameren Corporation Consolidated Edison NiSource Inc. Southern Company
American Electric Power Entergy Corporation Pinnacle West Capital TECO Energy
Centerpoint Energy FPL Group Progress Energy Xcel Energy Inc.
American Electric Power Entergy Corporation Pinnacle West Capital TECO Energy
Centerpoint Energy FPL Group Progress Energy Xcel Energy Inc.
Ameren Corporation Consolidated Edison NiSource Inc. Southern Company
American Electric Power Entergy Corporation Pinnacle West Capital TECO Energy
Centerpoint Energy FPL Group Progress Energy Xcel Energy Inc.
American Electric Power Entergy Corporation Pinnacle West Capital TECO Energy
Centerpoint Energy FPL Group Progress Energy Xcel Energy Inc.
3
1-year Total Shareholder Return
4
5
PCG Investment Case
• PCG is focused on better service to our customers,
which is the foundation of our growth:
which is the foundation of our growth:
• Substantial Cap Ex Program
• Manageable financing requirements
• Decoupled revenues
• Pass-through of procurement costs
• 11.45% weighted ROE on 52% equity
• Low carbon footprint
Vision and Values
7
2009 Business Priorities
• Improve reliability
• Improve safety and human performance
• Deliver on budget, on plan, and on purpose
• Drive customer satisfaction
• Champion effective regulatory and legislative policies
8
Key Business Drivers
• Pre-approved CapEx
• Upgraded SmartMeters
• Electric & Gas Distribution
• Poles and Substations
• Generation
• Transmission
• System Expansion & Replacement
9
Capital Expenditure Outlook
Low Case $3.6B
Low Case $3.6B
High Case $3.7B
High Case $3.7B
Low Case $3.4B
Low Case $3.4B
High Case $3.8B
High Case $3.8B
Low Case $3.3B
Low Case $3.3B
High Case $4.8B
High Case $4.8B
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
$ B
Low
Low
High
High
Low
Low
High
High
Low
Low
High
High
$3.7B
$3.7B
CapEx Outlook
CapEx Outlook
Actual
10
* Actual 2008 and projected 2009-2011 rate base is not adjusted for the impact of the carrying cost credit that primarily results from the second series of
the Energy Recovery Bonds. Earnings will be reduced by an amount equal to the deferred tax balance associated with the Energy Recovery Bonds
regulatory asset, multiplied by the Utility's equity ratio and by its equity return. This rate base offset carrying cost declines to zero when the taxes are
fully paid in 2012.
the Energy Recovery Bonds. Earnings will be reduced by an amount equal to the deferred tax balance associated with the Energy Recovery Bonds
regulatory asset, multiplied by the Utility's equity ratio and by its equity return. This rate base offset carrying cost declines to zero when the taxes are
fully paid in 2012.
Weighted Average Annual Rate Base*
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
$ B
Rate Base Growth
Low
Low
High
High
Low
Low
High
High
Low
Low
Low Case $20.1B
Low Case $20.1B
High Case $20.3B
High Case $20.3B
Low Case $22.1B
Low Case $22.1B
High Case $22.4B
High Case $22.4B
Low Case $24.3B
Low Case $24.3B
High Case $25.4B
High Case $25.4B
$18.2B
$18.2B
Actual
11
EPS Guidance
* Reg G reconciliation to GAAP for 2008 EPS from Operations, and 2009-2011 EPS Guidance available in Appendix and at www.pge-corp.com
12
Financial Assumptions 2009-2011
GUIDANCE REFLECTS:
• Capital expenditures consistent with low and high case ranges
• CPUC authorized ROE of at least 11.35% and Utility earns at least
12% on FERC projected rate base
12% on FERC projected rate base
• Ratemaking capital structure maintained at 52% equity
• CEE incentives, operational changes and efficiencies and tax cash
flow consistent with low and high case ranges
flow consistent with low and high case ranges
• Current conditions for debt and equity markets
• Resolution of FERC generator claims in 2009-2011 results in
financing needs
financing needs
13
• Sustainable, comparable dividend
• Payout ratio range of 50% - 70%
• Dividend growth in line with EPS growth.
Dividend Policy
Historical Quarterly Dividends per Share
14
Key Regulatory Filings
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011 General Rate Case
Summer 2009:
Prepare and File
Notice of Intent
Prepare and File
Notice of Intent
Summer 2009:
Prepare and File
Notice of Intent
Prepare and File
Notice of Intent
Summer 2010:
Hearings
Hearings
January 2011:
Rates go into effect
Rates go into effect
2009
2009
2010
2010
Transmission Owner Rate Cases
Summer 2009:
File TO 12
File TO 12
Summer 2009:
File TO 12
File TO 12
Fall 2009: TO 11
Settlement
Approved
Settlement
Approved
Fall 2009: TO 11
Settlement
Approved
Settlement
Approved
Summer 2010:
File TO 13
File TO 13
Summer 2010:
File TO 13
File TO 13
2010
2010
2011 Cost of Capital Application
Spring 2010:
Initial Filing
Initial Filing
January 2011:
Rates go into effect
Rates go into effect
2011
2011
15
Legislative Action: GHG
Recent Legislative Activity:
• California AB 32
• Federal activity ongoing
PG&E Supports:
• A cap and trade approach
• Fair allocation of credits
• Recognition of prior actions
16
PCG: Outlook for the Future
Leading renewable and energy efficiency
programs…
programs…
… and limiting risk from new
carbon legislation
carbon legislation
… and limiting risk from new
carbon legislation
carbon legislation
17
PCG Investment Case
• PCG is focused on better service to our customers,
which is the foundation of our growth:
which is the foundation of our growth:
• Substantial Cap Ex Program
• Manageable financing requirements
• Decoupled revenues
• Pass-through of procurement costs
• 11.45% weighted ROE on 52% equity
• Low carbon footprint
18
This presentation contains management’s guidance for PG&E Corporation’s 2009, 2010 and 2011 earnings per share from operations, projections of Pacific
Gas and Electric Company’s (Utility) capital expenditures, rate base and rate base growth, and projections of PG&E Corporation’s and the Utility’s financing
needs. These statements and projections, as well as the underlying assumptions, are forward-looking statements that are based on current expectations
which management believes are reasonable. These statements and assumptions are necessarily subject to various risks and uncertainties, the realization or
resolution of which may be outside of management's control. Actual results may differ materially. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially
include:
Gas and Electric Company’s (Utility) capital expenditures, rate base and rate base growth, and projections of PG&E Corporation’s and the Utility’s financing
needs. These statements and projections, as well as the underlying assumptions, are forward-looking statements that are based on current expectations
which management believes are reasonable. These statements and assumptions are necessarily subject to various risks and uncertainties, the realization or
resolution of which may be outside of management's control. Actual results may differ materially. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially
include:
• the Utility’s ability to manage capital expenditures and its operating and maintenance expenses within authorized levels;
• the outcome of pending and future regulatory proceedings and whether the Utility is able to timely recover its costs through rates;
• the adequacy and price of electricity and natural gas supplies, and the ability of the Utility to manage and respond to the volatility of the electricity and natural gas markets,
including the ability of the Utility and its counterparties to post or return collateral;
including the ability of the Utility and its counterparties to post or return collateral;
• the effect of weather, storms, earthquakes, fires, floods, disease, other natural disasters, explosions, accidents, mechanical breakdowns, disruptions of information technology
or computer systems, acts of terrorism, and other events or hazards on the Utility’s facilities and operations, its customers, and third parties on which the Utility relies;
or computer systems, acts of terrorism, and other events or hazards on the Utility’s facilities and operations, its customers, and third parties on which the Utility relies;
• the potential impacts of climate change on the Utility’s electricity and natural gas businesses;
• changes in customer demand for electricity and natural gas resulting from unanticipated population growth or decline, general economic and financial market conditions,
changes in technology, including the development of alternative energy sources, or other reasons;
changes in technology, including the development of alternative energy sources, or other reasons;
• operating performance of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant (“Diablo Canyon”), the availability of nuclear fuel, the occurrence of unplanned outages at Diablo Canyon or the
temporary or permanent cessation of operations at Diablo Canyon;
temporary or permanent cessation of operations at Diablo Canyon;
• whether the Utility can maintain the cost savings it has recognized from operating efficiencies it has achieved and identify and successfully implement additional sustainable
cost-saving measures;
cost-saving measures;
• whether the Utility incurs substantial expense to improve the safety and reliability of its electric and natural gas systems;
• whether the Utility achieves the California Public Utilities Commission’s (CPUC) energy efficiency targets and recognizes any incentives the Utility may earn in a timely manner;
• the impact of changes in federal or state laws, or their interpretation, on energy policy and the regulation of utilities and their holding companies;
• the impact of changing wholesale electric or gas market rules, including new rules of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) to restructure the California
wholesale electricity market;
wholesale electricity market;
• how the CPUC administers the conditions imposed on PG&E Corporation when it became the Utility’s holding company;
• the extent to which PG&E Corporation or the Utility incurs costs and liabilities in connection with litigation that are not recoverable through rates, from insurance, or from other
third parties;
third parties;
• the ability of PG&E Corporation, the Utility, and counterparties, to access capital markets and other sources of credit in a timely manner on acceptable terms, especially given
the recent deteriorating conditions in the economy and financial markets;
the recent deteriorating conditions in the economy and financial markets;
• the impact of environmental laws and regulations and the costs of compliance and remediation;
• the effect of municipalization, direct access, community choice aggregation, or other forms of bypass;
• the outcome of federal or state tax audits and the impact of changes in federal or state tax laws, policies, or regulations; and
• other factors and risks discussed in PG&E Corporation’s and the Utility’s 2008 Annual Report on Form 10-K and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange
Commission.
Commission.
Cautionary Language Regarding Forward-Looking
Statements
Statements
20
CPUC Cost of Capital Mechanism
Moody’s Utility Bond Yield Index
Current Avg.
Rating (Oct. 08 - Apr. 09)
Rating (Oct. 08 - Apr. 09)
A 6.76
Baa 8.19
Baa 8.19
Benchmark
(Oct. 06 - Sept. 07)
Rating Benchmark
A 6.02
Baa 6.26
Baa 6.26
If the Moody’s Utility Bond
Yield Index average for
October 2008 - September
2009 moves above 100 basis
points from the benchmark …
Yield Index average for
October 2008 - September
2009 moves above 100 basis
points from the benchmark …
Then our authorized ROE
(11.35%) will move up one-half
of the change in the index and
cost of debt is reset to
embedded plus projected cost
(11.35%) will move up one-half
of the change in the index and
cost of debt is reset to
embedded plus projected cost
2008 EPS - Reg G Reconciliation
* Earnings per share from operations is a non-GAAP measure. This non-GAAP measure is used because it allows
investors to compare the core underlying financial performance from one period to another, exclusive of items that do not
reflect the normal course of operations.
investors to compare the core underlying financial performance from one period to another, exclusive of items that do not
reflect the normal course of operations.
** Items impacting comparability reconcile earnings from operations with consolidated net income as reported in accordance
with GAAP. For the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2008, PG&E Corporation recognized $257 million of
net income resulting from a settlement of tax audits for tax years 2001 through 2004. Of this amount, $154 million was
related to PG&E Corporation’s former subsidiary, National Energy & Gas Transmission, Inc., and was recorded as income
from discontinued operations
with GAAP. For the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2008, PG&E Corporation recognized $257 million of
net income resulting from a settlement of tax audits for tax years 2001 through 2004. Of this amount, $154 million was
related to PG&E Corporation’s former subsidiary, National Energy & Gas Transmission, Inc., and was recorded as income
from discontinued operations
EPS on an Earnings from Operations Basis*
$2.95
Items Impacting Comparability**
0.68
EPS on a GAAP Basis
$3.63
2008
21
EPS Guidance - Reg G Reconciliation
(1) Earnings per share from operations is a non-GAAP measure. This non-GAAP measure is used because it allows investors to compare the core
underlying financial performance from one period to another, exclusive of items that do not reflect the normal course of operations.
underlying financial performance from one period to another, exclusive of items that do not reflect the normal course of operations.
(2) Items impacting comparability reconcile earnings from operations with consolidated Income Available for Common Shareholders as reported in
accordance with GAAP.
accordance with GAAP.
(3) Tentative agreement to resolve federal tax refund claims related to tax years 1998 and 1999.
(4) Recovery of costs incurred in connection with efforts to determine the market value of hydroelectric generation facilities.
(5) Forecasted cost to accelerate the performance of system-wide gas integrity surveys and associated remedial work.
Guidance Range
Guidance Range
Guidance Range
Reg G reconciliation also provided on the PG&E Corporation website: www.pge-corp.com
Reg G reconciliation also provided on the PG&E Corporation website: www.pge-corp.com
22